Valbuena, Donald, and lineup balance
Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 11:17 pm
Before I get into this, I want to say that I'm not a big believer in lineup balance. Not that I don't see the value in having some kind of balance between RH and LH, I just don't think it's a terribly big deal.
Anyhow, much has been made of the Indians LH heavy lineup. There is little relief on the horizon, as the two best position prospects in the system, Chisenhall and Weglarz, are both LH. The only RH prospect that has a realistic chance of starting appears to be Donald. Should Valbuena be sacrificed in the name of balance (among other factors)?
I say no for a couple reasons. First, I think Valbuena can be a good player. His improved walk rate, which is hopefully not entirely a mirage, is making him look more like Mark Bellhorn. When he was good (I'm looking primarily at 2004), Bellhorn drew a ton of walks, had decent power, and didn't hit for much average. He also wasn't much of a defender. I'm not willing to sacrifice that in the name of balance. The second reason is that I think Donald can be better deployed. Donald can play SS, while Valbuena really shouldn't. Donald's arm supposedly will work at 3B, too. If both Valbuena and Chisenhall are in the infield, Donald could play every day versus LH without entering into a true platoon with either player. He could also pick up a few AB versus RH for Cabrera. Donald could be a quasi full time player. Valbuena could be shuffled around to accomplish the same thing, but I don't like the defensive implications. I think using Donald in such a fashion solves the balance issue on the infield while ensuring that the Mike Rouses of the world don't get too many AB.
A similar situation could be brewing in the OF. Grady and Choo are locked in place. LF and DH are between Hafner, Weglarz, and Brantley. If Hafner is let go, the solution is easy. If he sticks around, I think there are problems. Weglarz is a better prospect than Brantley, but I think Brantley is better than a 4th OF in terms of value. Brantley would also be the 4th LH OF. That doesn't make him a bad player, but I think there is a lost opportunity a RH bat isn't brought in. Even if platoon splits are on the order of 100 points of OPS, might as well take advantage of those 100 points through the bench.
My solution to that is to trade Brantley. Someone thought Juan Pierre was worth 45 million. Someone else thought Joey Gaithright was worth a decent return. Brantley is more valuable than those two. The only reason I would see to keep Brantley around for 6-7 years is if the organization is really, really concerned about Grady leaving after 2012.
Anyhow, much has been made of the Indians LH heavy lineup. There is little relief on the horizon, as the two best position prospects in the system, Chisenhall and Weglarz, are both LH. The only RH prospect that has a realistic chance of starting appears to be Donald. Should Valbuena be sacrificed in the name of balance (among other factors)?
I say no for a couple reasons. First, I think Valbuena can be a good player. His improved walk rate, which is hopefully not entirely a mirage, is making him look more like Mark Bellhorn. When he was good (I'm looking primarily at 2004), Bellhorn drew a ton of walks, had decent power, and didn't hit for much average. He also wasn't much of a defender. I'm not willing to sacrifice that in the name of balance. The second reason is that I think Donald can be better deployed. Donald can play SS, while Valbuena really shouldn't. Donald's arm supposedly will work at 3B, too. If both Valbuena and Chisenhall are in the infield, Donald could play every day versus LH without entering into a true platoon with either player. He could also pick up a few AB versus RH for Cabrera. Donald could be a quasi full time player. Valbuena could be shuffled around to accomplish the same thing, but I don't like the defensive implications. I think using Donald in such a fashion solves the balance issue on the infield while ensuring that the Mike Rouses of the world don't get too many AB.
A similar situation could be brewing in the OF. Grady and Choo are locked in place. LF and DH are between Hafner, Weglarz, and Brantley. If Hafner is let go, the solution is easy. If he sticks around, I think there are problems. Weglarz is a better prospect than Brantley, but I think Brantley is better than a 4th OF in terms of value. Brantley would also be the 4th LH OF. That doesn't make him a bad player, but I think there is a lost opportunity a RH bat isn't brought in. Even if platoon splits are on the order of 100 points of OPS, might as well take advantage of those 100 points through the bench.
My solution to that is to trade Brantley. Someone thought Juan Pierre was worth 45 million. Someone else thought Joey Gaithright was worth a decent return. Brantley is more valuable than those two. The only reason I would see to keep Brantley around for 6-7 years is if the organization is really, really concerned about Grady leaving after 2012.