RealGM

As some of you know I like to run my trajectory based stats on the Indians each season to paint a more reliable picture of how our players are producing. These are not intended to act as projections but rather represent how our players are performing with less impact (ie: variability) on the opposing team's defense. Generally speaking these statistics are more trustworthy under small sample sizes than their recorded counterparts (AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA etc...) and will converge to their recorded counterparts under large enough sample sizes (typically right there after 2 or 3 seasons). The winning percentages are meant to indicate what their record should be right now, not what they are projected to for the rest of the season (because of sample size restrictions) and the 162 game adjusted winning percentages are meant to illustrate how the team would would be expected to perform assuming that they continue performing at the same level and factoring in what their recorded results were (ie: if you flip a coin 100 times but have already completed 50 flips for 10 heads the expected number of heads is not 50, it's 35).

Games 1-12: http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/04/2010-trajectory-based-updates-games-1.html
Games 1-21: http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/04/2010-trajectory-based-updates-games-1_30.html
Games 1-31: http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/05/2010-trajectory-based-updates-games-1.html
Games 1-43: http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/05/2010-trajectory-based-updates-games-1_25.html
Games 1-62: http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/06/2010-trajectory-based-updates-games-1.html

Cabrera's walk rate kind of jumped out at me. His minor league walk rates were never that impressive, so I guess I shouldn't expect a whole lot, but I would like to see a more distance between his OBP and BA (that goes for 2009 as well).

Anyhow, thanks for all of the work.

Cabrera's age gives me hope that he'll improve his raw skills but I'm not on the Cabrera train like most Tribe fans. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't show a great deal of plate discipline and has yet to show anything more than average defense (if that). I think there is a good chance that things come to together for him but as he approaches arbitration and we have infielders approaching the majors (Valbuena, Donald, Rivero, Phelps, Kipnis etc...) I wouldn't rule out seeing what other teams would give up for him as he very well may be overrated.

When I look at Austin Kearns and his trajectory, the first person that comes to mind is Delmon Young. I'm not sure who should be more offended by that.

I don't really understand that that comparison. First off Delmon is notorious for not walking, while Kearns has had an above average walk rate over his career and thus far this season.

Walk rate aside. Maybe I should have said in terms of faux power.

DavidMcGr wrote:Cabrera's age gives me hope that he'll improve his raw skills but I'm not on the Cabrera train like most Tribe fans. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't show a great deal of plate discipline and has yet to show anything more than average defense (if that). I think there is a good chance that things come to together for him but as he approaches arbitration and we have infielders approaching the majors (Valbuena, Donald, Rivero, Phelps, Kipnis etc...) I wouldn't rule out seeing what other teams would give up for him as he very well may be overrated.

As far as AC, I love the guy, but his D has been atrocious so far this year. I do think he'll be very good defensively. I don't need him to hit 25 HR's a year, sure it'd be great, but he did have 42 doubles last year in 131 games. Your right though, 6 dingers is unacceptable. One other thing with him is his conditioning. We've never heard anyone say 'Asdrubal has shown up to camp in terrific shape', and that is my biggest concern. He's listed at 6'0 180, and that's about my size, but I'd say he's got me by a few. Unless the STO camera adds 15 lbs.

I'd like to ride this AC/Valbuena duo this year. They were partners up the middle as youths in Venezuela, It'd be such a unique situation if they could both succeed for the Tribe.

I don't think that he needs to hit for more power but he he needs to improve his plate discipline. His walk rate has dropped over the past 2 years and his K rate isn't all that impressive. He needs to bump that walk rate back into the double digits and drop his K rate into the lower teens. I'd love him being a lower power hitter with a AVG in the 0.290-0.300 range and OBP in the 0.360-0.370 range. You may simply look at last year's line and say that he's already that hitter but his 0.360 BABIP in 2009 doesn't provide me with any level of confidence in being able to sustain that production which is why I want a higher walk rate - it'll up his OBP - and a lower K rate - it'll up his ABs so that his AVG can be sustained while his BABIP surely drops.

Well, yeah, they've all got to walk more and strike out less. They do see a lot of pitches though, which is nice, but between AC, Valbuena, LaPorta, Marson, Grady, Branyan, and this current model of Pronk, we are going to see a ton of K's and make some pitchers look really good. Cabrera is now in the leadoff spot, so we'll see if he can get his ratio on track. I'm not so much going to dive in and say he can't develop better discipline just because he hasn't yet. We'll just have to wait and see.

And I'm not huge in the sabr department, but why do you put the 0 in his batting average? I realize OPS and such could be more than 0, but AVG won't be greater than 0. Won't .290-.300 do? Just curious...

Batting average etc... are a ratio and 0.300 denotes that 30% of the time they have a hit per AB. The zero isn't necessary, it just makes the decimal easier to read.

Games 1-21: http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/04/2010-trajectory-based-updates-games-1_30.html

More the same really. Kearns isn't as good as he looks, Peralta is still being hated on for no reason and Marte isn't getting enough playing time. Grady's struggles are real, but he's making improvements, Talbot is still an illusionist, Masterson is still our best pitcher and Carmona's reemergence is questionable at best. Overall we're still playing, more-or-less, as expected but we've been worse over the past 9 games than we were over the first 12.

Games 1-31: http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/05/2010-trajectory-based-updates-games-1.html

I couldn't resist putting some of my current frustrations into this one. All in all, things aren't looking too good right now.

Games 1-43: http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/05/2010-trajectory-based-updates-games-1_25.html

Things are looking worse and worse but it's hard to believe that they'll stay this bad.

Games 1-62: http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/06/2010-trajectory-based-updates-games-1.html

Walk rate aside. Maybe I should have said in terms of faux power.