Trade Prospect: Juan Rivera

[TSE]

New rumor that Juan Rivera is on the trade market. He could be an interesting player if we could find a way to trade away Magglio's age and salary, or if we were forced to give up guys like Wells/Boesch/Raburn in other trade deals which we should be confronted with at this very moment. (although I think our best OF trade prospect is Austin Jackson because I feel that there are teams that would overpay for him, but Rivera can't play CF).

Rivera has one year left for about $5M and he is 32 yrs old, so it depends on what kind of contract he would be looking for in the future to assess his long-term value. He's a decent player because last year with his worst batting average ever of .250 he still hit .400 in SLG, so even an awful hitting year he can salvage decent numbers and in years where his average is high he can become really valuable. Also, he strikes out very infrequently every year no matter what, another lovely bonus and indication of true hitting skill being present.

[kellmellus50]

Tigers need another big bat to take swing at Central title

There is, of course, every possibility that Detroit could shoot for a big bat at the July trade deadline. In fact, expect it to happen. The obvious question is whether by then it will be too late.


From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110209/OPI ... z1DWVj5Gjc

[chrbal]

So we're going to trade Magglio Ordonez away to get Magglio Ordonez...i'm sorry, Juan Rivera?

[Shooter1]

So we're going to trade Magglio Ordonez away to get Magglio Ordonez...i'm sorry, Juan Rivera?

More like Maggs for Maggs lite.

[cochiseuofm]

I'm not really seeing this guy as a good option myself. Either he is brought in to replace Magglio, which only really makes sense if Magglio gets hurt, it makes no sense if Magglio is healthy as Maggs is a better batter, or he is brought in to improve on our other outfielders (Boesch and Raburn right now.)

Magglio Ordonez's numbers in 2010: .303 BA, .474 SLG, 12 HRs, 59 RBIs in 84 games
Juan Rivera's numbers in 2010: .252 BA, .409 SLG, 15 HRs, 52 RBIs in 124 games

The numbers should speak for themselves. Magglio, again if healthy, is a lot better than Rivera. He bats and slugs better, and he nearly matched Juan's HRs and eclipsed his RBIs while playing forty less games. And Rivera has had an injury-plagued career, so it isn't like he will be more reliable to pencil into the lineup either.

Here are the stats on the other outfielders we have (no way we trade or demote Austin Jackson for anyone who isn't an obvious upgrade.)

Brennan Boesch's numbers in 2010: .256 BA, .416 SLG, 14 HRs, 67 RBIs in 133 games
Ryan Raburn's numbers in 2010: .280 BA, .474 SLG, 15 HRs, 62 RBIs in 113 games

I'd rather roll with Boesch, who put up identical numbers, who is 25 years old, and Raburn at this point than give anything up for Rivera.

[ajaX82]

I don't see the point either...Maggs seems to be a better player on a one year deal. Why trade him for what appears to be a neutral move, if not a downgrade?

[TSE]

So we're going to trade Magglio Ordonez away to get Magglio Ordonez...i'm sorry, Juan Rivera?

Yeah we trade Maggs for Juan (or Maggs in a combo deal for an IF upgrade and another combo deal for Juan) for the benefit to possibly keep him for longer than we can keep Maggs and to save money so we can spend money to bolster another position as well, and to store extra for the future instead of putting as much into this single season while we still lack the offensive firepower we truly need to take a commanding shot this year. Plus we might have to deal away one of Wells or Boesch, and opening up the extra time this year for the remaining guy to develop instead of the final year of Maggs is also good for the future and gives us more trade resources to invest into overhauling that other spot with the extra financial room included. If you guys can come up with other or better trade prospects then feel free to post them or start a thread about them. I just opened this one up because it was a hot topic story on rotoworld as a guy that a team is actively working to trade. I could find all kinds of guys that would be fun to speculate trading for, but it's just more interesting to take some time to consider guys who definitely are obtainable in the real world market and any player we take on is going to make more sense if we give up players, thus there is no point in dwelling on the fact that the con of losing a bat like Magglio's for a year since you would have to know the totality of all sides of the trade to figure out where the benefit comes from and if that's worth it to cover what you are giving up, and you can't determine that at this point.

There is no such debate to say that Rivera would be a better bat than Maggs, so it's implied that we are taking a purposeful offensive hit this year in the OF in order to initiate the trade. That's the area we are giving up to get something else, and we can afford to do that having 3 cheap young guys like Raburn/Wells/Boesch and I'm interested in selling 1 or 2 OF extras to try and get material to improve the infield and or save finances for the future to improve the infield next year.

[cochiseuofm]

This trade still makes no sense to me. Magglio could potentially have very high trade value, for a player of his age, at the deadline. If he is productive like last year and stays healthy, big ifs but possible, he will be easy to get a good deal for. Because every contender will want a top bat on a one year deal to bolster their World Series chances.

And waiting until the deadline also allows the Tigers to see what they have. Detroit has the talent to make the playoffs this year. My opinion is I'm willing to take the risk of holding onto Magglio, seeing what he can provide. If he is good and we make the playoffs, great. If he is good and we trade him for prospects or young players because we are out of it, I'll be upset about the team sucking but like the move.

If he is traded now for Juan Rivera, even if the deal comes with a slight upgrade at infield? I'd be upset. I would rather see us try to win this year first. Yes it would suck if he gets hurt and we sucj and get nothing, but at least we tried. No fan wants to see their favorite team wave the white flag before spring training.

And the Blue Jays aren't going to trade for a one-year player and give up worthwhile young talent. Because in that division, it makes no sense to mortgage their future. The Rays won by developing a ton of young talent, and you can bet that is what the Jays are going to try to do too.

[TSE]

I don't understand your first paragraph at all, you talk about Magglio's trade value, which many people on here probably think is much lower than you but you seem to think it's potentially high. Well that's why I want to trade him as soon as possible to get the most out of him before he leaves, we can only use him this one year if we want to get value out of our young OFs or Magglio-replacement OFs whoever they may be.

Waiting til you see what you have? That's not a benefit necessarily, that could be a cost. It's ALWAYS better to trade early and with less information out if you are making a good trade as the other teams have to do the same. If you FEEL you have a read on a positive value-adding trade, then you pull the trigger and take it earlier when you can and when you can. And I see trading Magglio as a CLEAR CUT way to undeniably improve the future at the expense of this year's lineup, and that's a GOOD thing for us to finally do. Besides our lineup for this year would be better overall than it is now with 2 sets of trades, one to get Rivera in here, and another one or two to improve two other spots. So don't gripe about losing Magglio, because we have more bat power for THIS year coming in beyond what we have, and a lot more bat power for the future. Our offense would go significantly up for the short and long term, so it does not make any sense to me at all to argue about losing Magglio since batting is the area we improve by getting rid of him. One Magglio is worth less than a Magglio and a half, and Rivera will be like a half because he is projected to hit better than the trio of young guys we have, and we will get a like full Magglio in the infield when I'm done, maybe two IF Magglios. The only people who should be complaining in this thread are the ones that don't want to trade away pitching talent, cause that's what I'm planning on giving up to get all these offensive additions. And like I said before, none of you guys are going to have a sensible argument here until you have some kind of idea on how to evaluate the trade concept for another player, and that has nothing to do with Magglio, this thread is PURELY about Juan Rivera and not about anybody else. I don't care if we have Mickey Mantle reincarnated on stereoids playing OF, it'll never be a logical premise to state that losing his bat is a bad thing, until after you've already established the value of what you are getting in return for that and having indicated the return value is first lower than the sent-out value, which then validates the premise of your argument. You didn't do that here and thus your whole post is irrelevant and not on point.

And not sure what you consider slight upgrade. I posted some players I like in another thread, but I'm not looking for a slight upgrade, I'm looking for Starlin Castro and his massive youth and upside at SS or a proven more established vet like a Chase Utley. I like guys like David Wright and Buster Posey. If a guy is not the top 10 most valuable guys at his position (preferably top 5), then we aren't trading for Rivera. We have to line that up first or we don't have OF bats to sell. So stop comparing Magglio to Rivera, they aren't even close to the same tier, in any trade you compare the best players against the best and the worst against the worst, so in effect we are trading Magglio for somebody like Ryan Zimmerman, which then frees up Inge to be dealt for scrap to maybe come back for OF help if you want but I'm still looking at more IF upgrades. But we're not trading straight up for him because he is a better player and more valuable now, so we have to pay more, just as we aren't trading Magglio for Juan, they have to pay more, so that comparison is moot.

Your last paragraph comes out of left field here, literally LOL. Of course the BJ will trade him, they are the ones that created the rumor saying they want to trade him! It could be a smokescreen but I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. This is a trade analysis thread and it's built on the premise that the Blue Jays do in fact want to deal him and are eager to deal him. If that's not the case in reality then so be it, but in this thread and with the story being out there it is considered assumed and absolute so that we can freely discuss the trade without it being a moot point and having the other team say they changed their mind. Juan Rivera isn't young himself, and if the Blue Jays have extra young talent beyond Rivera to consider shopping, well that's fine, but I don't require that talent to come from the Blue Jays. This is just one thread about one possible guy that could fit, and some guys are going to fit if you only make one more trade, and some guys will fit after you make a ton of other trades, and in this case we have a lot of other shaking around to do because I'm planning on trading away more than a dozen players off this team at present state, every position except 1B has a healthy chance of being completely changed.

If I can have my way and keep getting my price then I'm more than happy to trade AJ, Raburn, Wells, Boesch AND Magglio, I don't need ANY of those guys to be on my team for the future, cause I will come back to these positions after I convert their value elsewhere and wind up with individually better players than all of them within relatively short due time.

[cochiseuofm]

I don't understand your first paragraph at all, you talk about Magglio's trade value, which many people on here probably think is much lower than you but you seem to think it's potentially high. Well that's why I want to trade him as soon as possible to get the most out of him before he leaves, we can only use him this one year if we want to get value out of our young OFs or Magglio-replacement OFs whoever they may be.

You clearly did not understand what I said at all. I said his value could be high if he plays well and stays healthy. Down the road, it is almost a guarantee that a playoff contender will want to add a big bat. Right now? No.

I'm assuming that your goal is to acquire as much young talent as possible for Magglio. If so, we need to wait until the calls start coming to us. If we start offering him around right after we signed him, teams are going to wonder why we are doing so and lowball us. That is how trades work. Hell, that is how plain old negotiation works. You don't show your hand from the start, that is how you get into a situation like the Denver Nuggets are in right now.

Your last paragraph comes out of left field here, literally LOL. Of course the BJ will trade him, they are the ones that created the rumor saying they want to trade him! It could be a smokescreen but I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. This is a trade analysis thread and it's built on the premise that the Blue Jays do in fact want to deal him and are eager to deal him. If that's not the case in reality then so be it, but in this thread and with the story being out there it is considered assumed and absolute so that we can freely discuss the trade without it being a moot point and having the other team say they changed their mind. Juan Rivera isn't young himself, and if the Blue Jays have extra young talent beyond Rivera to consider shopping, well that's fine, but I don't require that talent to come from the Blue Jays. This is just one thread about one possible guy that could fit, and some guys are going to fit if you only make one more trade, and some guys will fit after you make a ton of other trades, and in this case we have a lot of other shaking around to do because I'm planning on trading away more than a dozen players off this team at present state, every position except 1B has a healthy chance of being completely changed.

Yes they will deal Rivera, I never doubted that. But for this deal to be worthwhile for us, we need more than Rivera. We need young talent. And the Blue Jays will not give us that. If you read more than the title of the rumor, you'd know they want to trade Rivera to free up time for their young players.

And yes I know this is a trade thread, but part of making a good trade is how feasible it is. I'm really not going to address the rest of your post cause I'm tired of explaining that we aren't going to get top-tier talent without giving up top-tier talent. Any Joe off the street can say he wants Buster Posey or David Wright, but there is a reason those are household names for baseball fans.

[TSE]

Well I'm not going to wait til teams start calling to talk about the trades in advance, not that I would know when they would make calls anyhow. I'm not trying to figure out a way to trade Magglio so much as just acknowledging the player that hit the rumor mills and contemplating what our team would like if we wanted that particular available player. We already have too many OF bodies that we should pawn off just as my personal preference. Magglio is too old for our future and too expensive and so he's just my first choice, PENDING the assumption we can trade for him if/when we want to or when the appropriate time for any trade happens to be upon us. This conversation is for that time. I just want to keep one or two at most of Raburn/Wells/Boesch, and the other and Magglio would be the more convenient guys to try to trade first.

And as far as top tier talent, I wouldn't plan to get Wright or Posey, I would intend to get both. We have lots of players to trade including a farm system and staff or interesting pitchers that I would rather put all of our players sans-Cabrera into a big pot and then draft guys like Wright and Posey or any other younger high caliber players and I prefer our shape if we have our value redistributed such that we massively upgrade the infield positions wherever that may come from. I just think that right now the tradeoff is favorable to improve those spots from any other resource pool.