Third time is the charm? - 2019 Post season thread

[TKainZero]

The postseason is here again, with the dodgers looking to get to the WS once again and this time bring it home to LA.

Beuhler is going in game one at home. Leaving one of ryu or kershaw to pitch game 3 on the road I like this call. And figured this was the move months ago to not put too much pressure on the kid when you basically have 3 staff aces. Kershaw or ryu (even rich hill) would all be safer bets then sending out the youngster.

Love the move.

Let’s go dodgers

2019 World Series.

[TKainZero]

Kershaw taking the mound in game 2.

When was the last time a top notch Cy young candidate was 3rd in the rotation by choice?

Let’s make it 2-0

[TKainZero]

Is Kershaw just done?

[Quake Griffin]

Is Kershaw just done?

Yes.

This is something anyone could have seen coming. Unfortunately, the idea of this has caused others to run from this forum because they want to be loyal to this guy to a fault.

No surprise, we lost tonight because of him. I'm watchng twitter and people bitching about the offense. It's October. It's Strasburg. He has electric stuff and isn't scared of October. He's gonna shut it down.

Unreal we're paying this guy $30 million so fans can scratch their stupid loyalty itch.

[Kilroy]

I think the loyalty comes from the fact that the ownership absolutely pissed away Kershaw's best years... He's older, tired now... it's been coming. He needs a different role... Starter/Ace just isn't in him anymore... Especially in the post season.

We did to Kershaw what the Angels are doing to Trout.

[TKainZero]

It’s sad because I’m still waiting for that big postseason kershaw moment, i still believe in it, I just don’t think it’s going to be as an ace starter anymore. Maybe he retools and becomes a great closer. Who knows. This was just a great chance, at home, and he gets rocked.

[Kilroy]

It’s sad because I’m still waiting for that big postseason kershaw moment, i still believe in it, I just don’t think it’s going to be as an ace starter anymore. Maybe he retools and becomes a great closer. Who knows. This was just a great chance, at home, and he gets rocked.

Over the last few seasons, he's had some big post season performances... Off the top of my head, he was lights out in a reliever role against Houston...
He's also had a couple solid outings where he probably got pulled too soon... The problem with it was, it's never the game you hope it will be...
He doesn't come out and dominate his first start against a series opponent... And he has a tendency to blow it in potential close out games...

I'd love to see him used in a hybrid role... Let a young gunner start the game and throw fire for a couple innings, and once everyone's settled in, bring Kershaw in... Let him pitch like 4-6 innings as a "Reliever"...

He's got head issues more than anything, maybe we can redefine his role to maximize what he has left.

[Quake Griffin]

It’s sad because I’m still waiting for that big postseason kershaw moment, i still believe in it, I just don’t think it’s going to be as an ace starter anymore. Maybe he retools and becomes a great closer. Who knows. This was just a great chance, at home, and he gets rocked.

I'm not.

If it happens, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[Quake Griffin]

Read on Twitter

[Kilroy]

Read on Twitter

Liked this team so much more with Verdugo out there... I hope he's still out because his back isn't right, not because Roberts is falling in love with vet guys again...

[Kilroy]

It's October, and once again, we look exceedingly beatable... Once again, our pitching is porous as hell...
Once again we have one reliable pitcher... Once again, our offense only works if we hit dingers...

I guess it should have been obvious, but a team that relies only on the long ball, is naturally a regular season team and going to have trouble in October. Silly Dodger fans.

When you face a pitcher like Scherzer, you need to put the ball in play... It's only going to get harder to hit homers the deeper we go... We need base hits and high pitch counts.

[Quake Griffin]

Wouldn't mind if that was the last pitch I ever saw Kershaw throw in a Dodger Uniform.

If we survive, I'd be glad to give his roster spot to someone else in the NLCS.

Hope Ranma (who I'm sure pops in to read this from time to time) has enjoyed all of his freaking loyalty and devotion to this clown.

[wco81]

One of the analysts said last night that the decision to bring in Kershaw in relief wouldn't be Roberts' alone, though Roberts may be on the hot seat right now.

He said that the front office and the analytics dept. would have endorsed the decision. But now, his ERA from 7th inning or later in the postseason is 12.25 so it couldn't have been great before this outing.

This has to be one of the biggest upsets of all time. On the broadcasts, they were saying this is maybe the best Dodgers team of all time. I heard on a podcast someone citing the second-order winning percentage of over .700 for both the Dodgers and Astros, saying that makes both these teams two of the best teams since 1950!

But the Astros could get upset in game 5 today too.

These analytics which come to this conclusion seem to be focusing on roster depth and especially how all the talent helps put these teams at the top of the sport in the regular season.

Once the postseason starts though, they've not nearly been as dominant. Of course in a short tournament, the advantages of a deep roster doesn't help as much. For instance, each team will try to pitch their top 3 starters as much as possible and top 2 or 3 relievers. There's certainly an element of luck that teams may not be able to recover from so key hits or even errors become magnified. For instance, Buckner's error has defined his career, overshadowed all the good things he did.

Also the nature of baseball is that one or two runs are crucial, can determine the series. One or two baskets in the NBA playoffs can also be very important but most of the time, an underdog which gets ahead of a favored opponent have to continually outperform the other team, which is much harder to do.

So do the advantages of a deep roster and great personnel development by an organization get neutralized somewhat in the playoffs because of how big key plays are in a small set of games?

Dodgers have won 7 straight NL West banners, twice winning over 100 games during that period but don't have a WS win to show for it.

Braves won like 15 division titles from '91 to 2005, winning over 100 games 6 times during that run, but have just one WS win.

Did these organizations have depth but not enough top-end talent which produced in the postseason? Or were they just unlucky a lot of the times?

Or is it that a lot of players are monsters in the regular season but for whatever reason perform worse in the playoffs? Kershaw's career is arguably one of the GOAT careers for a pitcher in MLB history. Yet his dominance hasn't carried over to the postseason.

Why is that? Of course playoffs opponents are better but other superstar players have performed as well or better than their career regular season form in the playoffs.

Whatever the reason, would you dismiss his playoffs performance as outliers or just irrelevant since it's a small subset of his regular season work? Or do you have to revise your view of his overall career because of his subpar postseason history?

[yazmybaby]

Watched the Dodgers game last night and could not believe the Nat's comeback. Roberts needs to be fired. He cannot manage in a big / winner take all game. He was out managed last year by Alex Cora and the year before that by AJ Hinch. So many stupid moves. Kershaw had no business taking the ball to start the 8th inning. Maeda or Jansen should have been pitching. Kelly was the last pitcher I would have put into a game like that. I have witnessed so many games he has blown in pressure situations, when he was with the Red Sox. I was glad when they did not re sign him. He has had only one acceptable year, in the 2018 post season, that's all.
This Dodgers team on paper might have been the best ever. Having said that, Bellinger and Seager were terrible at the plate, not like Garvey,Cey,Lopes, Dusty Baker from the great teams in the 80's.
Maybe a Mookie Betts trade will get Dodger fans a World Series ring???

[Kilroy]

I watched the game on a redeye to boston... Huge mistake... No sleep...

Dave Roberts is the Mike D Antony of baseball... He's a decent GM but not a championship GM. He's made repeated questionable moves post season after post season, to the point where you start to question whether or not he really understands MLB.

He Needs to go... Kershaw came up short again, but Roberts should have known he would and protected him and us all... Just like he failed to do with Jansen and may have ruined him as a closer, he's mismanaged the twilight years of Kershaw's career and now he may be done.
Roberts needs to go and we need a shakeup with whoever's making personnel decisions... Farm system is solid, but we have needed reliable pitching for the last 3 seasons and we haven't gotten it... Walker is the only stark exception...

We also need guys that can get on base, not ONLY hit home runs.

[Quake Griffin]

.....????

Dave has done nothing but give Peyton opportunity after opportunity to prove himself in the postseason...to the point I think Dave has chosen Kershaw over the team.

Starting with leaving him in Game 5 of the 2017 WS to get the last out of the 5th against Springer and Bregman so he could be in line for the statistical win when he had already given up 4 runs and wasn’t fooling Springer or Bregman that game.

He let him close the 2016 NLDS.
He let him close the 2018 NLCS when it wasn’t necessary.
And he tried to give him ANOTHER opportunity to have a big moment 2 nights ago because he has made it his mission to show the world that this man can do it in October.


Do I blame Dave? Sure.
I also blame the FO for never trading Kershaw/ putting severe restrictions on what he can do with Kershaw.
But guess who else I also blame? My $30 million pitcher who hasn’t figured it out in 7 postseasons.

Seven postseasons.
In seven postseasons, Kershaw has been on the mound in 6 of our closeout losses.
5 of them are his fault.
The other one is Yu Darvish’s fault.

2013 - Game 6 NLCS...shelled by the Cards
2014 - Game 4 NLDS....Matt Adams bomb
2016 - Game 6 NLCS....shelled by the Cubs
2018 - Game 5 WS....shelled by the Sox (2nd crappy start of the WS).
2019 - Rendon, Soto.

We can make excuses. It’s the bats. It’s RISP. Belly. Seager. It’s Mattingly. It’s Roberts. The teams in certain years were just way better. The fact is he has almost NEVER extended a series in a close out game (only time is Game 4 NLDS 2014 against the Mets).

We can try to limit his role. Make him a 4th starter but who are we fooling? How is a $30 million man going to be literally function as a 4th starter on a franchise where he was drafted, raised, and groomed.

So yeah, Dave screwed up by loving on this guy too much. Another manager may not make that crucial mistake Dave made the other day by putting him in harms way but another manager will be forced to start Kershaw in October. They will be forced to rely on him in October.

Do I want that? Or would I just rather see Dave manage that game with no Kershaw around to cloud his judgment.

I like the latter.
If you don’t trade Peyton, getting rid of the manager does almost next to nothing imo.

[Kilroy]

Dave Roberts is a trash GM... He leaves us scratching our heads post season after post season. You were one of the loudest critics. (since there's basically 4 of us)

You're hate of Kershaw has blinded you to Roberts failings? Kershaw blew his opportunities. But you can't put the rest of our failings on him.

Removing Kershaw just removes a weapon we have, regardless of how effective you think that weapon is... Are we saying there was a better pitcher in our rotation to start his games? Because honestly, I'm not seeing it. WB is our best pitcher for now... Then it's probably Kershaw next... Then a big drop off to the rest. The reality is, our pitching has been suspect for the last 3 years.
All we've really done is gone from Kershaw to Walker at ace...

Urias, Maeda, Hill and Kelly all did their part to piss away this season... I hope none of them are back.

Roberts still feels like rolling the dice with the old guys instead of making moves to improve us on the mound.

So sure... Dump Kershaw for a better pitcher... I'm totally on board. But just don't be so naive as to think that's going to make us a WS Champ... Make sure you make some other pitching changes and maybe move some long ball hitters for guys that can put the ball in play.

Do all that and I'm still saying Roberts will screw it up... In fact what I'm saying is Roberts will NEVER do any of those things, so we'll never even get the chance to see if it'd work. We're going to roll out basically this same team next year, have a good regular season and take the fall off again.

[wco81]

There's been reporting that bringing Kershaw in first out of the bullpen was a front office decision. Does Roberts have latitude to ignore them?

In any event they said Roberts will be back next season.

Looks like Buehler is the only guy who can pitch with big-game pitchers like Cole, Scherzer and Strasburg.

So even if the Dodgers could trade Kershaw, who'd be their second pitcher in a playoffs rotation?

Looks like they have a lot of players who will be arbitration-eligible, Munch, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, a couple of relievers. They may not get as much as free agents but these players should all get big increases in salary given their production.

So are the Dodgers going to try to sign Cole?

[Kilroy]

That's the front office, and I think we can read that as Magic Johnson, taking the hit for Roberts... That's not a decision the FO makes and says "You must do this." That's a decision they present like, "What do you think about this?" It's too much of an odd-ball move for them to be that committed to it, to tell him he must do it.

That said, it was fully Roberts decision to keep him in for the 8th... It was also completely his decision to try to keep Kelly in for another inning instead of trusting his bullpen (ok, not much to trust there, but Kelly was the wrong choice)...

Just like it was his decision to try to use Jansen for multiple innings the last 2 seasons, and burning him out, when he was clearly getting sloppy.

Etc...

Friedman hasn't been improving the roster a whole lot either TBH... Pollock? Dude has only played a complete season twice and has been abysmal in the post season 2 out of 3 seasons... I would have much rather had Puig taking those ABs because as volatile as Puig is, he comes up big in must win situations.
But Roberts hated Puig...

[Quake Griffin]

Dave Roberts is a trash GM... He leaves us scratching our heads post season after post season. You were one of the loudest critics. (since there's basically 4 of us)

You're hate of Kershaw has blinded you to Roberts failings? Kershaw blew his opportunities. But you can't put the rest of our failings on him.

Removing Kershaw just removes a weapon we have, regardless of how effective you think that weapon is... Are we saying there was a better pitcher in our rotation to start his games? Because honestly, I'm not seeing it. WB is our best pitcher for now... Then it's probably Kershaw next... Then a big drop off to the rest. The reality is, our pitching has been suspect for the last 3 years.
All we've really done is gone from Kershaw to Walker at ace...

Urias, Maeda, Hill and Kelly all did their part to piss away this season... I hope none of them are back.

Roberts still feels like rolling the dice with the old guys instead of making moves to improve us on the mound.

So sure... Dump Kershaw for a better pitcher... I'm totally on board. But just don't be so naive as to think that's going to make us a WS Champ... Make sure you make some other pitching changes and maybe move some long ball hitters for guys that can put the ball in play.

Do all that and I'm still saying Roberts will screw it up... In fact what I'm saying is Roberts will NEVER do any of those things, so we'll never even get the chance to see if it'd work. We're going to roll out basically this same team next year, have a good regular season and take the fall off again.

Dave definitely has his problems but what I'm not gonna do is see my $30 million pitcher consistently choke and often in our close out games (when he should be keeping our series alive) and look to fire others, blame young hitters under the age of 25, etc. etc. like most Dodger fans.

I don't truly have a problem with moving on from Dave at all. I have a problem with moving on from Dave but keeping Kershaw in the mix. The reason I have that problem is because (as I tried to lay out before), Dave is the extreme end of an issue that any manager would have had - he relies on Peyton Kershaw. I don't think other managers would have put Kershaw in that spot with Rendon and Soto but how many managers are going to meet Kershaw, his family, see how hard he works, see how much he wants to get over his October demons, hear Kershaw say "I'm available for a Game 5/7" and look him square in his eye and say "sit down, you're not pitching in this game"? I can't see it. Not only that, I think him starting in the postseason in general is a problem.

He is a little too big for the team IMO. Ranma hated that I said this as he thought I was placing blame on Kershaw for this. I am not. I'm just simply stating the lay of the land. He was born and raised a Dodger. Nobody is going to truly treat Kershaw like a #3 or #4 starter going forward. Nobody is going to look Kershaw in the face and say "Walker is getting the ball on 3 days rest...sit down".

Nonetheless, Ryu was our 2nd best pitcher this year and that's why he got the Game 3 on the road. So it looks like Dave might have been using his head before the series started.

Last, I just want to move on from him. I want his choking out of the locker room and I want our young guys to feel free to go out there and kick ass, not like they're carrying the entire weight of 7 straight choke jobs. I don't want a "Kershaw replacement". I want a clean slate and then the next move. I want to be fair to the next guys coming up. I want to sign Gerrit Cole, the pitcher....not Gerrit Cole, the Kershaw replacement who will never ever ever ever ever have a bad October start again.


I'm fine with Hill gone, Kelly gone, AJ Pollock gone, Ryu getting a big pay day elsewhere and being gone.
I'm not okay with giving up on Julio.