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2015/16 Offseason: More active than Shakira's hips

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Trending Up or Down Per 8 MLB Personnel Evaluators 

Post#21 » by Ranma » Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:47 pm

Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe (10/25/15)
2. David Price, LHP — All eight agreed Price is the No. 1 pitcher out there. Age, experience, postseason experience (though most of it not good), and being lefthanded are reasons to throw a lot of money his way. The feeling is seven years, $210 million is fair. Some think Price won’t live up to it unless he goes somewhere he’s totally comfortable. Toronto seems to fit that description. The Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are other possibilities.


I want to add Price to the rotation but not at Kershaw-like money and term. I'd rather go with Neddy's suggestion elsewhere and overpay Greinke at $30 million per year for 3 years and lowered payments for the tail end of a proposed contract, especially since we are already loaded with left-handed starting possibilities over the next few years in Wood, Ryu, and Urias. Maybe I'll be convinced that this is just the cost of doing business, but right now, I'm not feeling it, especially since he's apparently been caught tipping his pitches.

6. Yoenis Cespedes, OF — The numbers don’t lie. Cespedes produces, and while our group knows the other things that come with Cespedes, they believe a team will hold its nose and give him the five- or six-year deal at $100 million-$150 million. “He’s not the guy you’d ideally want to commit more than the $100 million to,” said an AL manager. “He doesn’t work hard on his defense. But he produces. The fact Cespedes could earn $120 million-$150 million is insane, but someone will do it.”


Sounds like Cespedes already has Puig-like behavior attached to him, which we don't need, albeit in a more productive bat. I'll pass on him as an option for the outfield.

1. Johnny Cueto, RHP — Cueto is going to get a big contract, but he likely cost himself some money with a 4-7 record and 4.76 ERA in the regular season after being traded to Kansas City. And his postseason has been mostly bad, save for a strong outing against the Astros to help clinch the Division Series. There had been concerns about a physical issue, but his velocity hasn’t suffered. “He won’t get a Max Scherzer deal, but he’ll be around the Jon Lester [$155 million] area,” said an NL GM. “I know a few teams have scratched him off their list.”


In spite of his struggles, I still want to pursue Cueto, especially if we can buy low on him. I like him better than Jordan Zimmerman.

3. Alex Gordon, OF — Assuming Gordon turns down his $13 million player option, he’ll be a free agent. There’s nobody who doesn’t love Gordon, but committing multiple years at more than he’s making — say $15 million — isn’t appealing. One of our GMs indicated that with Gordon entering his age-32 year, he wouldn’t give him more than three-year deal at $36 million-$38 million. The Royals may be able to retain him if they want.


We'd probably have to overpay to get him out of Kansas City, but I like the idea of having Gordon in LF for the Dodgers on a 3-year deal. If we can get him at $36 million - $38 million, it's a no-brainer. Gordon's presence would free us to dump both Crawford and Ethier.

2. Larry Bowa, bench coach, Phillies — Bowa should be considered a managerial candidate in Miami, and anywhere else there is a vacancy. He’s not afraid to get into a player’s face, and that may be his downfall, but he’s a leader and has tremendous passion.


I've expressed my interest in having Bowa interview for the Dodgers' job as I like his forceful personality and old-school grit, but he doesn't look progressive enough for our front office's liking.

7. Matt Wieters, C, free agent — The Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners could bid for Wieters, who is a season removed from Tommy John surgery.

Who is Trending Up and Down as Baseball Free Agency Nears?


I've been interested in getting Wieters for a couple of years, but he's coming off injury and may require draft pick compensation if he gets a qualifying offer. With Grandal, Ellis, and Barnes in the fold, Wieters wouldn't be a priority but it's an interesting situation to keep an eye on.
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My To-Do Wish List 

Post#22 » by Ranma » Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:37 pm

  • Hire Dave Martinez as new Dodgers skipper. I've personally been pulling for Tim Wallach and Gabe Kapler is the presumptive favorite given his chummy relationship with Friedman, but from an objective standpoint, Martinez seems to be the best choice given his familiarity with Friedman, adeptness in incorporating advance analytics into the game plan, multi-tasking abilities and attention to detail, his fluency in Spanish, ability to relate to players, and years of experience under the tutelage of someone whom many consider to be baseball's best manager, Joe Maddon. It'd almost be like hiring Mike Budenholzer from Gregg Popovich's staff.
  • Re-sign Zack Greinke and sign David Price as free agents for the starting rotation. Now is not the time to waste Clayton Kershaw's best years and Julio Urias won't be ready for a few seasons. I'm guessing Jordan Zimmerman is the preferred choice of the front office given that he's a darling among the sabermetric community, but give me the modern-day Greg Maddux and one of the game's best southpaw pitchers. Just frontload Greinke's contract and offer a deal less than Kershaw's to Price as well as fix Price's tendency to tip his pitches. If we're going to spend big buck, I want the biggest names. Johnny Cueto would be a nice backup plan to Greinke and I'd be okay--but not excited--about Zimmerman.
  • Trade Yasiel Puig in a package deal to Tampa Bay for Evan Longoria and Jake McGee. The Rays get a Cuban with exciting potential on a cheap contract to develop and appeal to the Florida market even if it's not in South Beach while the Dodgers solidify 3B and add a LHP to strengthen the bullpen.
  • Sign Alex Gordon as a free agent to a 3-year deal to man LF with his reliable defense and bat. Subsequently, unload both Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier to continue the culture change in the ballclub.
  • Sign Korean RHP Seung-Hwan Oh as free agent to a 2-year contract with a team option for a 3rd year in order to further boost bullpen.
  • Submit qualifying offers to both Howie Kendrick and Brett Anderson in order to receive compensatory draft picks should they likely sign elsewhere. If either or both return for another year, it'd be a welcomed bonus. This also applies to Zack Greinke.
  • Monitor Mark Wieters' situation to see if he receives qualifying offer. If he does not, pursue possibility of signing him as free agent, if he does, move on from possibility in order to avoid giving up 1st-round draft pick compensation.
  • Bring back Ron Roenick and Tim Wallach--availability permitting--as bench coaches for new manager. While we're at it, fire Mark McGwire as hitting coach and hire superior replacement.

Projected Starting Rotation
    LHP - Clayton Kershaw
    RHP - Zack Greinke
    LHP - David Price
    LHP - Alex Wood
    5th - Hyun-Jin Ryu / Mike Bolsinger / Zach lee / Joe Wieland

Projected Bullpen
    RHP - Kenley Jansen
    LHP - Jake McGee
    RHP - Seung-Hwan Oh
    RHP - Chris Hatcher
    LHP - Luis Avilan
    RHP - Yimi Garcia
    RHP - Pedro Baez

Projected Starting Lineup
    2B - Jose Peraza
    SS - Corey Seager
    3B - Evan Longoria
    LF - Alex Gordon
    1B - Adrian Gonzalez
    C - Yasmani Grandal
    RF - Scott Van Slyke
    CF - Joc Pederson

Projected Bench
    UT - Justin Turner
    UT - **** Hernandez
    UT - Austin Barnes
    C - A.J. Ellis
    OF - Justin Ruggiano
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#23 » by Quake Griffin » Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:04 am

don't like Seager at SS for a full 162.

Why do you want McGwire out? I see a portion of Dodger fans online begging for his head.
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Seager and Big Mac 

Post#24 » by Ranma » Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:24 am

Quake Griffin wrote:don't like Seager at SS for a full 162.

Why do you want McGwire out? I see a portion of Dodger fans online begging for his head.


While it may not be ideal, Seager has the arm and hands to field the SS position. I anticipate he'll be just as good there as Rollins was defensively while providing a big upgrade offensively. Peraza is also a natural SS even though I like him better at 2B due to not having a premium arm (he doesn't have a bad arm), so he should be available to backup Seager at SS.

Besides, Seager has shown to be most comfortable at SS as his early numbers had him batting significantly better there than at 3B. Of course, he'd eventually adjust but I'd like to give the kid a shot there for a full season to see what he can do, especially since he won't be egregiously hurting us like Han-Ram would.

With regards to McGwire, I've always been biased against him since the performance-enhancing drugs scandal. He used to be one of my very favorite player growing up, so his fall from grace was particularly jarring for me. The fact that he hasn't gotten us results as we still can't get timely hits outside of the occasional HR is enough for us to move on from him. With the front office's inclination towards living a healthier lifestyle and taking a more efficient approach, Mark McGwire doesn't seem to fit in with such a movement.
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Re: My To-Do Wish List 

Post#25 » by Neddy » Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:30 am

I'm a light sleeper with an insomnia and once again I woke up after 1 AM and read this and felt WTH, I am probably gonna be just tossing and turning so here goes my 2 cents.

Ranma wrote:
  • Hire Dave Martinez as new Dodgers skipper. I've personally been pulling for Tim Wallach and Gabe Kapler is the presumptive favorite given his chummy relationship with Friedman, but from an objective standpoint, Martinez seems to be the best choice given his familiarity with Friedman, adeptness in incorporating advance analytics into the game plan, multi-tasking abilities and attention to detail, his fluency in Spanish, ability to relate to players, and years of experience under the tutelage of someone whom many consider to be baseball's best manager, Joe Maddon. It'd almost be like hiring Mike Budenholzer from Gregg Popovich's staff.
  • Re-sign Zack Greinke and sign David Price as free agents for the starting rotation. Now is not the time to waste Clayton Kershaw's best years and Julio Urias won't be ready for a few seasons. I'm guessing Jordan Zimmerman is the preferred choice of the front office given that he's a darling among the sabermetric community, but give me the modern-day Greg Maddux and one of the game's best southpaw pitchers. Just frontload Greinke's contract and offer a deal less than Kershaw's to Price as well as fix Price's tendency to tip his pitches. If we're going to spend big buck, I want the biggest names. Johnny Cueto would be a nice backup plan to Greinke and I'd be okay--but not excited--about Zimmerman.
  • Trade Yasiel Puig in a package deal to Tampa Bay for Evan Longoria and Jake McGee. The Rays get a Cuban with exciting potential on a cheap contract to develop and appeal to the Florida market even if it's not in South Beach while the Dodgers solidify 3B and add a LHP to strengthen the bullpen.
  • Sign Alex Gordon as a free agent to a 3-year deal to man LF with his reliable defense and bat. Subsequently, unload both Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier to continue the culture change in the ballclub.
  • Sign Korean RHP Seung-Hwan Oh as free agent to a 2-year contract with a team option for a 3rd year in order to further boost bullpen.
  • Submit qualifying offers to both Howie Kendrick and Brett Anderson in order to receive compensatory draft picks should they likely sign elsewhere. If either or both return for another year, it'd be a welcomed bonus. This also applies to Zack Greinke.
  • Monitor Mark Wieters' situation to see if he receives qualifying offer. If he does not, pursue possibility of signing him as free agent, if he does, move on from possibility in order to avoid giving up 1st-round draft pick compensation.
  • Bring back Ron Roenick and Tim Wallach--availability permitting--as bench coaches for new manager. While we're at it, fire Mark McGwire as hitting coach and hire superior replacement.

Projected Starting Rotation
    LHP - Clayton Kershaw
    RHP - Zack Greinke
    LHP - David Price
    LHP - Alex Wood
    5th - Hyun-Jin Ryu / Mike Bolsinger / Zach lee / Joe Wieland

Projected Bullpen
    RHP - Kenley Jansen
    LHP - Jake McGee
    RHP - Seung-Hwan Oh
    RHP - Chris Hatcher
    LHP - Luis Avilan
    RHP - Yimi Garcia
    RHP - Pedro Baez

Projected Starting Lineup
    2B - Jose Peraza
    SS - Corey Seager
    3B - Evan Longoria
    LF - Alex Gordon
    1B - Adrian Gonzalez
    C - Yasmani Grandal
    RF - Scott Van Slyke
    CF - Joc Pederson

Projected Bench
    UT - Justin Turner
    UT - **** Hernandez
    UT - Austin Barnes
    C - A.J. Ellis
    OF - Justin Ruggiano


1) as for Dave Martinez, I was thinking every quality you brought to mention about Dave also applied to Gabe, minus working experience with Maddon, then a lighting bolt went off that I wasn't thinking about. Dave can speak spanish. this is actually huge, as this was Donny Potato's problem I believe with Puig, having to speak through someone always loses its original intent. anyone who disagree, go watch Tom Sellick's 80's classic, "mr. baseball" and see what the interpreter Yoshi does. I still like Gabe, and I did like Dave as a backup plan, but this thought alone slightly changes the order. I want Gabe to be our bench coach with Dave leading now. still a fan of Gabe, however.

2) I like Jordan Zimmerman... he had a terrible BABIP seasons in last couple of years, his WHIP went up a bit and along with it his BB/9, HR/9, and small dip on his SO/9. he is never gonna be the ace of the DODGER rotation as long as Kershaw is here, but he is built like Billingsley prior to his injury and more consistent than Chad. is he better than Zach or David Price? no but he is 3 years younger than Zach and a year younger than David with less mileage on him. he will come cheaper than either one two, which I think would make it easier to buy two top shelf pitchers than two highest priced pitchers, and you know both will crap out in about 3 to 4 years and their latter contract years will be a total disaster. can have one, not two in the rotation in say, 2019 season. Jordan being younger, he may want another big contract before it is all said and done, and want something like what Greinke got from us, a 5-7 year deal with an opt out clause after 3 years. that would be perfect. rip the benefit of his best prime years and let him work for another contract from some desperate club when he too becomes older and lesser. you also gotta take in account that we don't have too many right handed starters in the rotation as is. if we choose Zach and Jordan, that allows us to allocate Ryu and Wood where we shuffle between rigthies to lefties at each turn except when Kershaw goes after Wood when it turns around. and no Wood is not ahead of Ryu. Ryu's stat lines in his first two seasons were spectacular and deserves to pitch between Zach and Jordan, as long as he is back within 90% of his previous self. Kershaw-Zach-Ryu-Jordan-Wood or Kershaw-Price-Jordan-Ryu-Wood.

3) I am not against selling Puig, but I am against selling Puig while his value is low. Hiring Dave who can speak spanish is to directly communicate with Puig more than anyone else in my mind. otherwise the other Spanish speaking members have Gonzo to talk to, whom apparently Puig didn't see as a mentor. I also don't think Evan Longoria is going anywhere, he signed a very team friendly long term deal and will be their first and only franchise star. if we can get him, that would be tremendous but I just don't see it happening especially while Puig's value is so low. I would much rather prefer to see him over play his stat lines in the first half and see if Loria would take the bait and give us MIke GianCarlo Stanton. we all know that cheapskate have no realistic desire to keep paying Stanton his A rod like contract, and even himself was mentioned that the deal would not payout as he will most likely trade him. well what better trade for Stanton if Puig gets hot in the first half of the season and become the next great hype from the motherland for many Miamians?

4) I dunno about Alex Gordon. yeah his OPS is .800 and that looks great, but he is gonna be 33 before next season even starts. Him and Andre Ethier are only about 14 months apart. Andre's contract comes to end in 2 years. his OPS is better as of now and I bet that doesn't change in next 2 seasons.

5) Dude you know I am all for signing Oh. I love that boy. I hated him when he was pitching for the Lions, as you know, if you follow KBO and you are a fan of any other team, you are supposed to hate everyone from the evil empire that is the Samsung Lions. nowadays I like the eagles and the heroes. they both sorta suck... lol. but LOVED LOVED LOVED him as a Hanshin Tiger, my top team in NPB. god in 80+ years of its miserable existence, despite being the most popular team in all of Japan, Hanshin has only 1 championship to show for and we are still suffering from the curse of Colonel Sanders.... IF you love baseball beyond MLB, you have got to look up the curse of Colonel Sanders and the Tigers.

6) Qualifying offers are a must. even if we have them back, I wouldn't lose sleep over them. Brett is due for another season ending injury, but he only has to last as long until Ryu is ready.

7) Matt Wieters is a complete mystery to me at this point. the Orioles knows his situation more than anyone else, and if they are not extending him I would have some reservations about his previous injury to his ability to catch for a long term. even though he was hurt for a good part of last two seasons, when he was back, he showed his power and contact like any other seasons before. him being a switch hitter to a severely one sided lineup the O's have, would be a perfect fit for Baltimore. I don't quite get this. Grandal is gonna be a fixture, and as long as Kershaw is here, I don't see Ellis going anywhere. we have Barnes, and Farmer is killing it right now in AFL. I just don't know.

8) I don't want Ron back unless it is in different capacity other than a 3rd base coach. he sucks at it. Tim I like. but only as a 3rd base coach or a hitting coach. I think Dave/Gabe got the manager/bench coach thing locked down. if Dave is not on board, I can see Gabe/Tim combo, however.

9) as for the lineup, I like Peraza on top too, but I might do something different as you have Evan but I still have Puig.

1) Puig R RF
2) Seager L SS
3) Turner R 3B
4) Gonzo L 1B
5) Ethier L LF
6) Grandal S C
7) Joc L CF
8) Peraza R 2B
9) P.

this lineup would make us dangerous from the very first pitch of the game. it shuffles us lefty to righty constantly, have SVS to platoon Andre, **** can become the ultimate sub and still get his 400 AB all over the place, Joc finally gets a fastball, and if they walk our 8th batter, he will steal all over the diamond.

well there you have it, my insomnia has kicked my butt for yet another night. take care ya'll.
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Reply to Neddy's Response 

Post#26 » by Ranma » Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:48 am

I'm glad to hear your thoughts as always, Neddy, so I'll add on to a few of the points.

1) When Friedman hired Kapler, I assumed he was being groomed to be the eventual manager, but I just think it is too soon. From the sound of things, Martinez practically co-managed with Maddon with the Rays and Cubs almost like Gentry serving as associate coach to Doc Rivers for the Clippers a couple of seasons ago. The fluency in Spanish is definitely appealing and Gabe may just be as organized and prepared as Martinez, but Martinez actually has the extended major league experience in being the more proven managerial prospect. Kapler has been a fast-riser but it seems like he's rising too fast for my taste. Martinez has proven relatable to major leaguers, but there are some doubts to Kapler being overly new age for the vets' comfort. I'd be fine with Kapler if Friedman wants him as I'll hold him accountable for that hiring, but Martinez just instills more confidence for a smoother transition for the job.

2) I agree that Jin is better and more proven than Wood if health isn't an issue, but I'm just not sure that his health won't be. It also doesn't help that he seems to be plumpier than the last time we saw him. I may be under-rating Zimmerman since everyone is assuming the front office likes him because of such things like the numbers you've cited, but I can't get excited about him. Then again, I thought Greinke was overpaid when we signed him too, but even then Greinke had more accolades than Zimmerman. I totally get why we wouldn't sign both Price and Greinke to long-term deals given the concerns about their respective ages towards the end of their contracts, but stylistically, I just think they're better for the Dodgers overall even when you take into account the declining years. Of course, Zimmerman should pitch better at Dodger Stadium and I'm also aware of balancing righty-lefty, but I'm just not enamored with JZ.

In any case, the Giants and Cubs will look to make a hard push for Greinke and I have a gut feeling that he'll end up with San Francisco. It just makes a lot of sense for all involved, especially given Zack's family, personality, and social anxiety disorder. If that were to come to fruition, the Giants would be sporting a rotation fronted by Bumgarner, Greinke, Cain, Peavy, and Lincecum. If we just sign Zimmerman, the Dodgers would questionably have Kershaw, Zimmerman, Ryu, Wood, and Bolsinger. Obviously, adding Price would make a big difference in countering such a rotation but I want to make sure we're not taking for granted that there will be a (pitching) arms race this winter. Even with questionable health, I like Cueto more than Zimmerman but I have to concede that Zimmerman is the safer bet even if he's more solid than ace material.

3) I'm definitely with you in not wanting to sell low on Puig, but we have to shop him this winter to see what is currently available. I have my doubts on Longoria being available but ESPN mentioned the possibility for the Angels. It was likely just speculation but it intrigued me to consider jumping into the fray should he be made available. I like Stanton more than Puig but that contract scares me even for our deep-pocketed organization.

4) I'm still mad at Ethier and would prefer Gordon even if we have to extend him a 4-year contract as long as the average annual salary is below $20 million (more around $15 million). Another name being mentioned is Jason Heyward, but his projected $25 million per price is too rich for his production numbers.

5) Interesting back-story about the Hanshin Tigers. Thanks for sharing. Maybe I'll look into the curse of Colonel Sanders should the mood strike later.

6) Yeah, qualifying offers are a no-brainer so I'm not sure why there was one writer even debating extending Brett Anderson one.

7) Like you said, Wieters is not really a priority but his situation is intriguing to monitor. I'd have to think Ellis' days are numbered but with the reduced workload and serving as Clayton's personal caddy, I guess he'll stick around longer than he normally would.

8) Are you sure about Ron Roenicke? He came in and replaced Lorenzo Bundy as our 3B coach and our baserunning immediately became better upon his arrival. Everyone including me wants him back at that position.
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#27 » by Neddy » Wed Oct 28, 2015 2:40 am

I actually caught your reply right before i went to work at 6:30 AM, but didn't have time to log back in and express my thoughts.

1) the more I hear about Dave Martinez from you, the more I feel he may be the one, with Gabe either staying as our minor farm director or as Dave's bench coach, although having Andrew's right arm man on the bench may not be all that settling for Dave. but the idea of having a Spanish speaking version of Joe Maddon on the bench, whom directly can communicate with our wild horse Puig, be able to connect with our team captain Gonzo and not having to go through him to translate to the rest of Spanish speaking players, and yet Dave is an American who is completely in sync with non-Spanish speakers, at the same time to be able to work with SABR-savvy front office of ours, is a huge and complete draw. Ranma, you won me over with Dave. I won't be mad if Gabe is the one to be picked still, but now I think Dave may be the better fit for right now.

2) I have to say Ryu has slimmed down significantly since coming over to USA. his KBO days, damn dude. there is a reason why I called him a Korean David Wells. I wouldn't place any value on his weight and in fact, I would worry if he slimmed down significantly since that is not his best playing body shape throughout his career. coming off his injury, I want him to make himself as close to his natural self as he can... unless his personal health professionals think otherwise.

3) I had no idea there were rumors of Evan Longoria going to the Angels. was it from the angels beat writers or the rays?

4) why are you mad at Ethier? I felt like he kept it very professional through last year's frustrating situation he was put in and overcame beautifully. he was in the zone with his incredible dive catch in game 5 and if it wasn't for Potato breaking his focus in the dugout, i feel like he could have had a huge hit waiting for us that got mentally bubbled away.

5) in case you don't have the time, when the Tigers finally won their very first and only Japan Title since god knows when, the crazed fans of Osaka region went little too wild and picked up a statue of Colonel Sanders off of a local KFC, and against the owner's protest, they dunked it in the nearby river. the story has it that the owner then went on to curse the Tigers fans and ever since then, they have not sniffed the climax series of Japan. well that's a real cliff note version of it. the real story is much better and sorry if I spoiled your fun.

6) ditto. that's all I have to say.

7) I hate seeing a 4.5 million a year catcher being a part timer, but I don't think we have seen the last of Ellis as long as Kershaw demands of him. If we sign Matt Wieters for slightly more than what Ellis' arbitration numbers were gonna be, then Clayton better learn how to pitch to Matt in a hurry. I still don't think this is realistic tho.

8) yeah well Ron is better than Lorenzo Bundy, but most 3rd base coaches are better than anyone named Bundy regardless of the first name. I still cannot forgive not covering the 3rd, I was yelling at the effing TV as the play unfolded, watching nobody covering the 3rd and none of the coaching staff making aware of it. if a mere fan like me saw it coming, why not the professionals?
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#28 » by Quake Griffin » Wed Oct 28, 2015 4:48 am

If I can hop in here.

1) Alex Gordon is 31 and will be 32 starting next year and has been an elite defender in the OF his entire career. It isn't a question of comparing birth certificates to me but asking whether or not his defense will fall off of a cliff around ages 34-36.

2) I'm surprised nobody is into Heyward. As long as we're talking about giving up a pick (Alex Gordon) to sign an OF? Why not talk about the young guy, with an elite glove who will actually be worth the life of his deal? What I like about Heyward as well is that he can play anywhere in the OF reasonably well. This keeps us flexible in the OF while making us better. The flexibility will allow us to feature Puig and either build his value back up for a trade or keep him if he's worth it. No reason a $250 million+ team should have to deal with holes or shotty defense in their OF from a guy like Ethier. Eat his deal and tell him to go.

3) There are 2 drawbacks to Zimmermann.
- Draft Pick
- He has a zipper on his elbow and he's 6 years removed from that surgery. The time frame for re-injury risks will be in this deal.
This guy is a little unlucky and played behind some shotty defense (bottom half of the league according to fangraphs).

4) I'm not worried about doing a Heyward + Zimmermann from a draft pick standpoint.
Zack, Howie, Brett will be extended QOs. I expect to get 2 back. Worst case scenario if we sign those 2, we'll have 2 Compensatory round picks before our 2nd round pick. We lose space on slots but not volume of picks. Not a big deal to me given where our ball club and our farm is.

5) Surprised you guys are so content with Corey Seager at SS. I want an elite glove there. There's no doubt in my mind over 162 that he will produce more for us at a less strenuous position if we move him to 3rd.

I think we need to put a focus on run prevention more than trying to keep our lineup of aging players (A-Gon, Ethier come to mind) together because we're in fear of losing offense. We had a solid offense last year inspite of all the holes and it didn't do much for us. The Cardinals put up 100 wins last year playing the run prevention game with a mediocre offense.

With our farm and our ability to take on salary, I think our FO is better equipped to build this team starting with defense first and then add a bat later….rather than working the other way around.
“I’ve always felt that drafting is the life blood of any organization.” - Jerome Alan West.
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Consolidated Response 

Post#29 » by Ranma » Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:13 pm

I'll respond to both your replies here. First, Neddy, thanks for the summary of the Colonel Sanders story. Yeah, I was pre-occupied with other stuff and it slipped my mind. Quake, for some reason, I forgot about the draft pick compensation required for some of our prospective free-agent signings. Thank you for keeping me honest. Onto the specific points.

1) The funny thing about Dave Martinez as the Dodgers' next skipper is that I was pulling for Tim Wallach and I'm usually predisposed against candidates outside of the organization. I generally like managers to be groomed in-house by the organization to be prepared for the responsibilities to work with everyone at every level at that position, hence my preference for Wallach. This would also make Gabe Kapler an appealing candidate if he had more time with the Dodgers. Like I've said, it just seems too soon for him at this moment.

Going back to Martinez, I was won over by recent articles by ESPN Chicago, CSN Chicago, and the Chicago Sun-Times. He's received high praise and endorsements from Joe Maddon as well as former and current players. I don't think he has the same personality or demeanor as Maddon, but his credentials are quite impressive. Plus, he was also born in Brooklyn, which is obviously also the birthplace of the Dodgers. Maybe it's destiny.

2) The appeal with Alex Gordon was that, based on the Boston Globe article I posted at the top of this page, I was holding out hope for him signing a short-term, reasonably-priced deal. However, he has since been a Game 1 World Series hero and gone on the record of stating that he wants to stay in Kansas City. I doubt the Royals give him up without a fight should they go on to win the championship and I certainly don't want to get into a bidding war, especially as you pointed out that it will cost a draft pick on our part, Quake. So, it looks like we can cross that off our list but I would still make a cursory inquiry to make sure.

With regards to Evan Longoria, I believe it was the Angels beat writer who opined that Longoria has looked less like a superstar and more of a solid player. He then speculated that Tampa Bay may be willing to listen on the face of their franchise because of the long-term commitment despite the team-friendly nature of the deal. I just want to make sure we explore that option to see if it was a possibility, but it's not something I would count on.

Jason Heyward looks like a great player and addition to the ballclub if money and years were not a consideration, but I don't like the numbers of $25 million/year and maybe 8 or 10 years that it take to sign him. He's a great defender who is best in RF, a good baserunner, and bats well but is lacking in power numbers. Plus, it would also require a draft pick as you previously noted.

3) Speaking of draft picks with regards to pursuit of our free agents, I'd prefer not to give them up but my main concern is our first-round pick since I still want us to go after high-upside players, particularly pitchers, since we will be lacking in top prospects once Urias graduates despite the depth of our development pipeline.

My primary targets in free agency are Zack Greinke and David Price with Johnny Cueto as a backup solution. None of them would required draft pick compensation on our part even though we would technically lose a compensatory pick by not having Greinke sign elsewhere, but that would be a negligible loss. While the concern is the projected fade in their respective performance as they age during the tail end of their contracts, I think Greinke and Price would be worth it (depending on the final dollar figures and years committed). Both would go a long way towards not wasting Kershaw's prime years and Greinke's Maddux-like approach should help minimize his performance degrading. Price would be the bigger risk given the innings he's pitched, reliance on the strikeout, and postseason struggles but I'm still inclined to roll the dice on him.

I'm not really high on Jordan Zimmerman or Heyward because of their anticipated price relative to projected performance and the draft-pick compensation required despite both being younger than my primary targets. Having said that and just like you said, Quake, if we were to sign a free agent who required a draft pick as compensation, we would be better off signing multiple players of that nature in order to leverage the decreasing value of lost picks.

The first free agent we sign would require our 2016 first-round pick, but every subsequent similar free agent we sign would require the loss of our second-round selection, third-round selection, or fourth-round selection and so on. We'd still have the compensatory picks from not signing Funkhouser and those from qualifying and losing Kendrick, Anderson, and possibly Greinke. So if we have to go after Heyward, Gordon, Zimmerman, Wieters, or whomever else, we better nab at least two.

4) With regards to Ethier, I hold him more responsible than Mattingly for that tirade in Game 5. It not only changed the mood in the clubhouse and course of the game, but he failed to move runners over when we were desperately in need to manufacture runs while our hitters were struggling to hit with runners on base. I recognize his contributions during that game and him being a good soldier during the outfield jam situation, but he's paid a lot while underperforming on his contract and this is not the only time his exhibited moodiness has been a detriment. Maybe I'll cool off but right now I don't see it. He placed himself above the team in that moment and it was the absolute wrong time to do it. The fact that he overreacted and didn't recognize the moment is unforgivable as I see it as him exhibiting an innate selfishness placed above the team. Sure, he plays hard but I get the sense it has to do more with his own internal drive within himself than with any regard for team. We can't have that attitude in the clubhouse.

Also, I don't think it's fair to place the blame on Ron Roenicke for that gaffe at 3B during the defensive shift when it was the fault of the coaching staff as a whole. It's not as if Roenicke was on the field at 3B when the Dodgers were not the offensive team on the basepaths; he was in the dugout with the rest of the coaches. Plus, he's the newcomer having been with the club as a late addition. If anyone is to be singled out, it would be Mattingly.

5) If Ryu is actually slimmer than his playing days in Korea...whoa! But that is a good point about him operating at his comfortable playing weight. He wouldn't exactly be the poster boy for Gabe Kapler's push for nutrition and fitness.

6) I'm not opposed to going after an elite defender as SS with Corey Seager moving to 3B (sorry, Justin Turner), but it's not a priority for me given our other needs when Seager isn't exactly bad there. If the opportunity comes up to get a great SS, then by all means, pull the trigger but I wouldn't be fretting to have Corey's ROY campaign start him at SS.

While I agree a Dodgers team built on good defense should be a priority, I'm more concerned with stabilizing the outfield situation. Jimmy Rollins was brought in to solidify the defense up the middle, but I don't see a drop-off with Seager as his replacement. Likewise, Jose Peraza or **** Hernandez should be suitable replacements for Howie Kendrick.

I'm more concerned with our hitting in going away from the feast-or-famine over-reliance on the homerun in addition to our ineptitude with timely hitting with runners in scoring position. Personally, I think our defense is more sound than our offense, which is why I've placed hitting as the higher priority. Whether that means changing our approach with a new hitting coach, getting new personnel, or both that is one area that definitely needs to be addressed this off-season.
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#30 » by Neddy » Fri Oct 30, 2015 2:40 am

I don't have a strong affinity for Jason Heyward because his price tag is highly inflated. he is a career 784 OPS player, which translates in to 114 OPS+. that is slightly above average offensive output, for a player who is asking more than any other outfielder ever to play for the dodgers... if indeed somebody gets him 25 mil per year type of a deal. frankly I don't think he is worth 15 million a year. 10 to 12 is his fair market value strictly going about his actual numbers. if you look at his numbers, he's had one season where he hit 27 HRs but for the most part of his career, he hits HRs in teens. so he really isn't a HR guy. you look at his RBIs, he really isn't that either. at best he is a 20-20 guy who is not particularly strong in any part of his offense. Ethier on the other hand, sported .852 OPS last season and comes with a career OPS above .820. I would rather stick with Ethier for his clearly better offense who's game isn't based on his speed, unlike Heyward whom I see as a younger version of Carl Crawford with better defense.

about Alex Gordon... I still would rather keep Andre over him.

as for Zimmerman's compensation pick we must give out, would still be a lesser value of a pick than the compensation pick Greinke will bring us. in terms of injury concerns, I think Greinke's elbow is more likely to blow up in near future than Z's. Zach reported elbow pain during spring training and he has clocked in 2100 innings of major league baseball games for the last dozen years minus one season he checked out for mental health issues.

sorry guys, I put in 14 hours yesterday and 12 today, I am tired and dazed. gonna sign off here and just enjoy some clipper game before I hit the sack.
ehhhhh f it.
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#31 » by Neddy » Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:00 am

Im pretty sure not too many fellas around here care for baseball outside of US, but just finished watching the Bears beat the mighty Lions for KBO title now via satellite. what an upset this was. for those who might remember the name, Dustin Nippert just killed the Lions tonight to clinch the title. remember Ryan Vogelsong? Im sure Dustin will get his money and stay to be the ace of the Bears of Seoul but IF he is interested in coming back to US, why not give him a spring training invitation? the worst that can happen for us is to cut him if he can't hang.

and this year's Japan Series MVP Dae-ho Lee just became a free agent and interested in MLB. here is a heresy of an idea, and this is coming from the guy with Gonzo's bobble head at his office... what if... Gonzo can be traded for whatever cheap asset to whomever willing to take his entire salary, then we can allocate his salary towards Greinke, then pay the post fee which doesn't count against our payroll and grab Lee for something like 17 million for 3+1 years at first? we get a very similar player for cheap while creating room to sign and eat the latter part of ugly contract for now? by the time Urias reaches the majors, we could potentially have Kershaw-Urias-Ryu-Greinke even if Zack is on the down side of his career with guys like Magic Mike and De Leon still looming to round out the rotation, and that is without considering a future free agent.

just an idea or two.
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#32 » by Quake Griffin » Sat Oct 31, 2015 3:49 pm

I've been interested in dealing Adrian Gonzalez since the end of the season.
But not for another 1B his age.

Adrian's body is starting to go on him IMO and we're going to be left holding the bag on his deal when it expires.
We can move Turner to 1st, kick Seager to 3rd….

nvm….it's like a broken record.
U know where I'm going with it.
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#33 » by Neddy » Sun Nov 1, 2015 7:51 pm

Quake Griffin wrote:I've been interested in dealing Adrian Gonzalez since the end of the season.
But not for another 1B his age.

Adrian's body is starting to go on him IMO and we're going to be left holding the bag on his deal when it expires.
We can move Turner to 1st, kick Seager to 3rd….

nvm….it's like a broken record.
U know where I'm going with it.


having a great defensive short stop is great, but not at expense of giving up significant offensive output or dealing away high level prospects. I think Ranma and I agree that Seager's defense is not terrible enough to overlook his offensive capabilities thus what his value is at SS. if our OF are stacked with offensive powerhouse bats, and by moving Seager to 3rd while not losing anything offensively on the right ride of the infield, I can see having Cesar Izturis type of a SS and still be great, but I believe Joc is already taking up all defense and questionable consistent offense (contact wise) position locked up. I don't want to have Joc and Cesar type SS taking up my lineup spots and along with the pitcher, that is 1/3 of the lineup who may not put the bat on the ball on daily basis...

now I do like your idea of Turner on 1st, although it somewhat complicates platooning SVS there as both are right handed. I can see moving Seager to 3rd while shuffling Peraza back to his natural position of SS, with **** going to 2nd on permanent basis. if this is what we end up doing, I hope we get more in return for Gonzo pitching wise. how about sending Gonzo while eating half of his deal to Seattle, give the other half of the money to Greinke, and grab Tajuan Walker from the Mariners? Tajuan has been inconsistent and a disappointment for them and they are desperate for a first baseman with power to support Cano and Cruz. we can also grab JiMan Choi who was their top prospect at 1st base until he broke his ankles and found positive for PED. but his career SLG and OPS in 5 seasons in the minors is about .500 and .900. we can get him cheap as a throw in Im sure. we stash him in AAA in case Turner gets hurt, he is a switch hitter who is stronger against right handed pitching so a platoon with SVS isn't a terrible idea either. I know this is a far fetched idea and Jerry Dipoto led Mariners won't do it, but old Jack would have taken the bait for Gonzo and maybe a low level prospect for Walker and Choi plus a reliever. If this was possible, I would immediately convert Walker into a reliever to set up for Jensen or be the 7th inning guy. he has velocity when not needed to reserve his tank as a starter. he can be the 7th guy now, move up to set up Jensen once he gets used to being a reliever, then if and when Jensen is either gone or can't perform anymore, be the closer.

it's all a pipe dream from this boredom of no Dodger baseball to watch, but fun to think about.
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#34 » by Quake Griffin » Mon Nov 2, 2015 4:42 pm

Donnie says Wallach can follow him.

smfh.

Ned, I'll reply to your post a little later.
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#35 » by Quake Griffin » Wed Nov 4, 2015 6:21 am

Bud Black no longer going to be a Nat.

still available.
I expect him to be interviewed.
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Officially Opted Out 

Post#36 » by Ranma » Wed Nov 4, 2015 4:51 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/status/661912791905775616[/tweet]
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#37 » by Quake Griffin » Wed Nov 4, 2015 5:16 pm

Bleacher Report app saying Dave Roberts made a big impression on the Dodger's brass.


Also saying we're going to interview Kirk Gibson.
Pass on Gibson.
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Molly Knight Not Liking Gibby 

Post#38 » by Ranma » Wed Nov 4, 2015 5:54 pm

Quake Griffin wrote:Bleacher Report app saying Dave Roberts made a big impression on the Dodger's brass.


Also saying we're going to interview Kirk Gibson.
Pass on Gibson.


I wasn't sure where to post the relative information, so I've been posting about the coaching search in the Fire Don Mattingly thread to continue the discussion there as well as focus on the preliminary candidates before we've narrowed the pool down to a select few. Let me know where we should be posting to make it easier for everyone. I know Kilroy would prefer to separate topics whenever possible.

In any case, Gibs is a surprising candidate as Molly Knight thinks that he'd be one of the worst hires out there. She's tweeted that people within the organization would revolt if he was hired. I think it has to do with him bad-mouthing the organization during his post-Dodgers career, particularly when he was the Diamondbacks' manager.
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Re: 2015 Offseason: (Mattingly out!) 

Post#39 » by Quake Griffin » Wed Nov 4, 2015 7:42 pm

let's keep the updates in here because it's the official offseason thread.

the fire donnie thread is an old thread that kind of became relevant because he's actually gone now.
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Re: Molly Knight Not Liking Gibby 

Post#40 » by Neddy » Thu Nov 5, 2015 6:49 am

Ranma wrote:
Quake Griffin wrote:Bleacher Report app saying Dave Roberts made a big impression on the Dodger's brass.


Also saying we're going to interview Kirk Gibson.
Pass on Gibson.


I wasn't sure where to post the relative information, so I've been posting about the coaching search in the Fire Don Mattingly thread to continue the discussion there as well as focus on the preliminary candidates before we've narrowed the pool down to a select few. Let me know where we should be posting to make it easier for everyone. I know Kilroy would prefer to separate topics whenever possible.

In any case, Gibs is a surprising candidate as Molly Knight thinks that he'd be one of the worst hires out there. She's tweeted that people within the organization would revolt if he was hired. I think it has to do with him bad-mouthing the organization during his post-Dodgers career, particularly when he was the Diamondbacks' manager.


I think there is a higher chance that hell freezes over before Kirk is hired by our current FO. maybe in Ned Colletti's era, but not under Andrew and Co. I think they are simply interviewing obvious Nos just to prove to the local media that they interviewed everyone who merited one, a la the wrath of Bill Plaschke. at the end of the day, we will either have Bud Black-Dave Roberts manager-bench coach tandem or Gabe Kapler-Dave Roberts tandem.
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