New CBA Ramifications & Shohei Otani Watch

[Ranma]

I figured teams spent most of their international signing budgets for the current period, but it's good to know that the Yankees and Rangers currently lead the pack with about $3.5 million and that's only after trading for more salary slots from other teams. Granted it's still over 10 times more than what we can offer but the choice between $300,000 and $3.5 million is more manageable than going against $10 million, especially with a hypothetical $125-million extension waiting in the wings.

Ronald Blum, Associated Press (9/15/17)

As of now, the most Otani could get this offseason would be a $3,535,000 signing bonus from Texas or $3.25 million from the Yankees.

Shoichi Oikawa, owner of the Central League’s Yomiuri Giants in Tokyo, was quoted in Japanese media after an owners meeting on Wednesday as saying proposals are being discussed to alter the posting system. One would set the posting fee at 15 percent of the contract’s guaranteed value for deals up to $100 million, and then a flat $20 million for deals above that figure.

“I think it’s unfortunate that either party would be talking about proposals that were made,” Manfred said. “If he said it, he said it. I’m not going to confirm or say anything about it.”

Manfred would like international signing rules that cover all nations, not just Japan.

Manfred Says MLB willing to Wait 2 Years for Otani

[Ranma]

Buster Olney, ESPN.com (9/17/17)

A theory floated is that the team that lands Otani could circumvent the financial limitations in place by assuring the player that they won’t tender him a contract after the first or second season, allowing Otani to become a free agent -- with a prenegotiated deal to follow with the team that cut him free. But sources indicate that Major League Baseball would view that as an obvious attempt to effectively break the rules and would come down hard on Otani’s MLB team. “Because there’s no reasonable logic to failing to tender a contract to a young star player other than to get around the rules,” said one official.

But no one seems to know Otani well enough to get a sense of what he’ll ask for or expect. Would he want to play in New York, with Masahiro Tanaka? Would he want to play in L.A.? San Francisco? Texas, where his friend Yu Darvish fared well? Does he like the apparent flexibility in how the Dodgers arrange their roster? Would he like a chance to serve as a DH? Would he prefer a pitcher’s park? Would he want to be the latest in the Red Sox tradition of great left-handed hitters and effectively step into the role left behind by David Ortiz? Does he harbor a secret desire to own Milwaukee and have season tickets to the Packers?

Within the industry, there is an expectation that the usual suspects among the big markets will have an advantage -- the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, etc. “We can all pick out the five or six teams that probably have a legitimate shot,” one official said.

Olney: How Can Shohei Otani Make Up $200 Million in Squandered Value?

[Ranma]

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Dylan Hernandez, Los Angeles Times (9/14/17)

I was told something simliar but was warned Ohtani could change his mind. It wouldn’t be the first time. Ohtani was set to come to the United States out of high school, only to reverse course at the last second.

Major league teams are convinced Ohtani will be made available to them this winter, but some executives have wondered whether an agent could talk him into remaining in Japan for another two years.

By signing with an American team this winter, Ohtani would be leaving a lot of money on the table but would still make out well financially. His image is on advertisements all over Japan, and a move to the U.S. could allow him to make tens of millions of dollars annually in endorsement deals.

The Japanese reports were careful to use language that would allow them to claim they weren’t wrong if Ohtani remains with the Nippon-Ham Fighters. None of the stories stated the move was certain. Rather, they said Ohtani was “solidifying his intention” to play in the major leagues next season.

Japanese Star Shohei Ohtani Not Talking About Reports He Wants to Go to U.S. This Offseason

[Ranma]

While the article by Arden Zwelling is relatively old, I didn't come across it before and it provides more insight into Shohei Otani's life. The guy seems too good to be true even with all the hype. He's unsatisfied with his current success and always looking to improve. As one Japanese team manager put it, "He works out all day, then he goes back and reads about better ways to work out." He doesn't go out, trains all the time, cares about nutrition and fitness, and enjoys watching Remember the Titans and Rudy.

He would already be a Dodger right now if it weren't for Masao Yamada, who was the Nippon-Ham Fighters' GM back when Otani was draft eligible. It was a foregone conclusion that Otani would head over to the United States, but Yamada put on a full-court press and pulled out all the stops in his campaign to change his mind, which included a video dramatizing the dreary life of minor league baseball in the US, providing an extensive dossier detailing the difficulties facing young Japanese athletes abroad, but it is widely believed that the commitment to allow Otani to both pitch and hit was what finally swayed him.

Given our question marks in LF, I'm open to giving Otani regular opportunities to prove himself as an option a couple of days before his starts as a pitcher. I've been a bit down on Otani's hitting ability, but he could provide the best option at the Dodgers' disposal. Plus, I'm becoming more convinced with his ability to improve as a hitter as well as a pitcher.

He's being looked at as this generation's Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter. We lost out on him before because we presumably wouldn't allow for the possibility of him to be a two-way player in MLB. We can't make the same mistake this time around, especially since he's shown and proven a proficiency to do so professionally albeit in NPB.

Shohei is 6'5" and built like an NFL quarterback. Instead of focusing on bulk, he's now taking Yu Darvish's advice to focus on explosiveness and power by putting more emphasis on flexibility and mobility in his workout regimen. He can already throw over 100 mph and has 4 solid-to-plus pitches in his arsenal while working to add a 5th with a change-up that's a work in progress. His moonshots as a power hitter are already buzz-worthy, but an underrated aspect to his athleticism is his speed. He clocked 3.89 seconds to 1B from the left-handed batter's box last year.

And he doesn't even care about money right now even though that's not really a problem for him. Like I said, Shohei Otani is a customized video-game character come to life.

[Ranma]

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Michael Baumann, TheRinger.com (9/18/17)

Los Angeles Dodgers: Some of these arguments are creative at best, but the Dodgers offer an easier path to the World Series than any other team in MLB.

Why All 30 MLB Teams Should Try to Sign Two-Way Phenom Shohei Otani

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Phil Rogers, MLB.com (9/21/17)

5. Dodgers
Los Angeles is going to be looking at losing a Draft pick soon if it doesn't get under the payroll threshold, which could make it difficult to re-sign Darvish. If it could keep Darvish, it would be in perfect shape to do the two-step with Ohtani. The Dodgers have used 14 left fielders this season, but they look ready to turn that spot over to Alex Verdugo, which could make it tough to fit Ohtani in the outfield. Working behind Clayton Kershaw would have a appeal for any pitcher, however.

10 Perfect-Fit Teams for Japan's Ohtani

[Neddy]

if we sign Otani, out of respect we really ought to trade Maeda. can't have a former Sawamura winner be off the rotation on an incentive driven contract, by a young kid from Japan to take away his possibly the last place in rotation. Kershaw-Wood-Hill-McCarthy-Ryu-Urias-Walker will all out-chance him on the rotation imo. I think Walker and Urias coming back from injuries and due to their age, we could use them as bullpen arms at the beginning of the season or start them in AAA, but I do believe between McCarthy and Kazmir, one of them will return from their troubles and it ain't gonna be the noodle arms. even if Wood's arm trouble continues and can't start at the beginning of the season, I can't see Maeda beating out Ryu. that's at least Kersh-Hill-Ryu- and one of Mc/Kaz. you add Otani, there is no place for Maeda but the bullpen.

[Ranma]

If Maeda wants to be traded in light of the Dodgers acquiring Otani, I have no problems with doing that as along as we get a good return. His contract is one of the best in all of baseball. I was actually thinking that we should deal some of our extra and more expensive arms in order to get under the luxury tax in order to avoid losing 10 spots in our draft position.

I like the idea of Buehler manning the 5th starter spot for next season. Teams reportedly inquired about Ryu before the trade deadline, so I'd look to add him in a trade package to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. and a prospect. If the Orioles want to surrender Zach Britton for a starting pitcher, I'd also be up for it as well.

Neither scenario really saves us any money but I'd like to explore packaging Ryu, Kazmir, and/or McCarthy to offload some contracts or acquire prospects on cheap contracts. I'd also like to approach A-Gon and see how open he would be to being traded. If so, to where. I'd be open to dealing him to San Diego or Anaheim even if we were to eat half the remaining salary of his final season.

We may have to re-sign Darvish as well as promise him opportunities in LF in order to secure Otani, but it'd make it even more of a priority to shed salary to accommodate a deal for Yu.

Do whatever it takes to get Otani and figure out the rest later.

[Neddy]

If Maeda wants to be traded in light of the Dodgers acquiring Otani, I have no problems with doing that as along as we get a good return. His contract is one of the best in all of baseball. I was actually thinking that we should deal some of our extra and more expensive arms in order to get under the luxury tax in order to avoid losing 10 spots in our draft position.

I like the idea of Buehler manning the 5th starter spot for next season. Teams reportedly inquired about Ryu before the trade deadline, so I'd look to add him in a trade package to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. and a prospect. If the Orioles want to surrender Zach Britton for a starting pitcher, I'd also be up for it as well.

hmmmm how does that make sense? Ryu actually is the cheapest starter we have not named Wood last year.

by next season,
Ryu's 2018 salary = 7.8 million.

wood in his second arbitration year with the season he had, he will potentially surpass Ryu, or we may give him an extension that will surely surpass Ryu. say it could be between 5 to 11 million range.

Erisbel Arrenabaerra (sp?) is still on the books for 6.5.

McCarthy = 11.5
HIll = 16.6
Kazmir = 17.6
Gonzo = 22.4
Kershaw = 35.6

granted, nobody in their right mind would want Kazmir at this point and we would have to give them our prospects a la doc rivers.

we are better off declining club option on Forsythe's 9 million and put Taylor on second permanently.

I would rather trade Gonzo back to SD for symbolic reasons. SD has only 30 million committed to their payroll next season. it would be one way to bring back some of their fans to the empty petco park. sell more jerseys for his retirement year for the friars maybe make a bunch of alternative Gonzo jerseys would perhaps boost the sales.

McCarthy can have a strong value to a team needing a top of the rotation starter and may think that they can fix his head issues.

if we do get Otani, and Urias is back healthy, selling off Hill while he still looks strong can actually bring some value while reducing the payroll.

I would understand trading Ryu for valuable prospects or position of need, but for reducing payroll seems... ineffective and fairly meaningless.

Neither scenario really saves us any money but I'd like to explore packaging Ryu, Kazmir, and/or McCarthy to offload some contracts or acquire prospects on cheap contracts. I'd also like to approach A-Gon and see how open he would be to being traded. If so, to where. I'd be open to dealing him to San Diego or Anaheim even if we were to eat half the remaining salary of his final season.

We may have to re-sign Darvish as well as promise him opportunities in LF in order to secure Otani, but it'd make it even more of a priority to shed salary to accommodate a deal for Yu.

Do whatever it takes to get Otani and figure out the rest later.

okay, I posted after the reading the first half, now I read your second part here. it seems we have some similar ideas after all.

Anaheim is probably not a good place as another old fossil that used to be "the man" is on 1B/DH. but SD we both agree on gonzo.

resigning Yu should be avoided. and it is for the same reason why we stayed away from Zack.

packaging Ryu with Scott would be very permissible, but who's gonna want to take on that salary? that's essentially buying 25 million for 1 year of Ryu and there is 16 more millions that are deferred money to Scott after 2019. now it balloons up to 40 million plus for one Ryu. I don't see it happening for the same reason I can't see Kazmir traded to anywhere. that was a terrible signing.

Ryu paired with McCarthy? that could be intriguing. I see a possibility especially we throw them a prospect or two.

[Neddy]

Do whatever it takes to get Otani and figure out the rest later.

the realistic "later" to lower or payroll to get under the penalty line, is 197 million I believe. current projection for 2018 with the roster without any arbitration or new player, is 167 million with 14 players on the roster.

15th - Grandal, and his last year of arbitration. pencil him at 10 m.
16th - Barnes is under team control. 0.5 m
17th - Bellinger, 0.5 m
18th- Taylor is also under team control, 0.5 m.
19th - Seager under team control, 0.6 m
20th - **** is at his first arbitration year, probably 1.2 million -ish?
21th - Joc enters his first arbitration year, and despite his putrid production, he has 1 AllStar appearance under his belt. 1.2 million.
22th - Thompson is under team control, 0.5 million
23th - Verdugo, 0.5 mil
24th - Otani at minimum. 0.5 mil.
25th - regardless who, will take up about 0.5 mil
26 through about 40 will get some combination of guaranteed minimum or split contracts. say 10 million here.

that's 26.5. with some rounding downs previously, let's say that's 27 million to fill the roster. now we are roughly at 196 million.

then there are the TC on Forsythe for 9. it's 205.

then there are the hold overs from yesteryear players at around 9 million. now we are at 214 million.

well then, let's go to work on this.

first, the easiest way is not picking up Logan's option. 214 - 9 = 205
dump Gonzo back to SD to retire as a Padre, we eat most of the money and maybe SD picks up 5 million. we are at 200.
trade Joc packaged with McCarthy and a half of his contract. we are roughly losing 7 mil. we are at 193.
now add back the minimum contracts for players in return, at least we will gain a million or two. we are just under the luxury tax.
trade Ryu for prospects and gain some more operating room here, if needed.

but with this scenario, our pitching will be significantly thinned out. we are not resigning Yu with this plan, then it will be Kershaw-Otani-Hill-Wood-Maeda-Urias-Walker-Kazmir-Brock-Ross would be our depth. that team's gonna suck in the play off if one or two regular starters go down with injuries. Otani, Urias, and Walker are coming back from some significant injuries, and Hill and Wood are always ailing with something, from blisters to shoulder. Kazmir cannot be counted on. this could work but it also looks risky... it may prompt us to having to sign or trade for a starter again, and Ryu's contract still looks mighty cheap.

of course, this is without any new addition in mind other than Otani making the league minimum as the 24th player mentioned. if we want the other team to pick up more salary, it will also make a dent into our farm significantly.


PS- all this is really a wasted mental exercise. we can't sign Otani until july and no way he isn't signed by no later than March.

[Ranma]

granted, nobody in their right mind would want Kazmir at this point and we would have to give them our prospects a la doc rivers.

we are better off declining club option on Forsythe's 9 million and put Taylor on second permanently.

Yeah, Kazmir will be a hard sell and I certainly want to avoid giving up prospects to offload salary. Forsythe is struggling but I'm counting on him rebounding and $9 million is a cheap salary regardless. I still consider him a tradeable asset but I want to see what he can do as a Dodger with another year to work with Turner Ward and acclimating to Los Angeles. However, I'd be lying if I said I didn't briefly consider moving on from Forsythe, but it should be a last resort scenario.

if we do get Otani, and Urias is back healthy, selling off Hill while he still looks strong can actually bring some value while reducing the payroll.

Urias is not anticipated to be ready for most of next season, so Hill's presence will be all the more important, especially at his salary. My aim to making salary cuts is to still keep us competitive for World Series titles, so letting go of Hill wouldn't help with that.

resigning Yu should be avoided. and it is for the same reason why we stayed away from Zack.

packaging Ryu with Scott would be very permissible, but who's gonna want to take on that salary? that's essentially buying 25 million for 1 year of Ryu and there is 16 more millions that are deferred money to Scott after 2019. now it balloons up to 40 million plus for one Ryu. I don't see it happening for the same reason I can't see Kazmir traded to anywhere. that was a terrible signing.

Ryu paired with McCarthy? that could be intriguing. I see a possibility especially we throw them a prospect or two.

I'd like to bring Darvish back but I'm certainly not going to overpay by a lot to do so, but I have to definitely weigh how much it would influence Otani's decision as well. Otani's cheap signing bonus certainly offsets some salary commitments even with the anticipated $20-million posting fee so such consideration has to be taken into account in negotiations with Yu's representation.

Given how much we've relied on our extraordinary starting pitching depth over the seasons, it's difficult to give up the quality we have but I think we can and have to afford to follow through on this during the off-season with the luxury tax threshold in mind. I know you're partial to Ryu, Neddy, but I don't see a long-term future for him with the Dodgers and he should be one of the more desirable assets on the trade market, especially with teams like the Mariners, Orioles, and Blue Jays looking for starting pitching.

Kazmir's stock may be down but I still think he represents more hope than Brett Anderson did when he was with the Dodgers. It's not saying much, I know, but I'm not going to be as proactive in trying to move him as I was with Brian Wilson and the like. Like you said, McCarthy could be an intriguing proposition for another team just like he would be for us. I'd test the waters for both of them and see who nibbles.

Hopefully, Stewart and Stripling can progress enough to fill in the roles we need in our pitching staff, starting or otherwise.

It's going to be a tall order, but these are my initial thoughts in the endeavor to get below the luxury tax threshold.

[Ranma]

PS- all this is really a wasted mental exercise. we can't sign Otani until july and no way he isn't signed by no later than March.

Otani is already giving up $200 million by wanting to sign this off-season, so what's a few million more? This is especially true since the most another team can offer him before July, 2018 is the Yankees or Rangers at around $3.5 million since they already spent significant portions of their respective international budgets and had to trade for more salary slots to get to that number.

He's going to make more money in endorsements and his MLB extension could possibly come as soon as after his rookie season or up to 3 years in the majors. I've presented a hypothetical scenario on such an extension in the last post of the previous page of this thread, which was based on projections by FanGraphs.

Granted my numbers and projections may be off, but the point is that he can theoretically recapture a lot of the money he missed out on in not waiting. However, it's noteworthy to remember that Otani wouldn't be getting that $200-million contract right now, anyway, since MLB's revised restrictions require him to wait 2 more years to not be subject to the international signing guidelines. He supposedly made about $2 million this past season in NPB, so he'd only be giving up maybe $4 million in NPB salary by coming over 2 years early.

While his hypothetical extension won't be of the $200 million variety, it will still be a significant raise over what he was making in Nippon Professional Baseball and could lessen his overall projected losses to anywhere from $83 million to $47 million when all is said and done. Again, my numbers are not reliable, but it re-iterates that Otani wouldn't really be sacrificing much money at all in the short term with a future contract extension lessening the overall losses over the long term.

Plus, this doesn't even factor in the endorsement opportunities he would have in Los Angeles. The Dodgers could have some deals lined up with 3rd parties that would pay him handsomely without circumventing the MLB restrictions. Money will not be the deciding factor with Otani.

I think it will come down to whether a team will give him opportunities to play 2-way baseball.

[Neddy]

PS- all this is really a wasted mental exercise. we can't sign Otani until july and no way he isn't signed by no later than March.

Otani is already giving up $200 million by wanting to sign this off-season, so what's a few million more? This is especially true since the most another team can offer him before July, 2018 is the Yankees or Rangers at around $3.5 million since they already spent significant portions of their respective international budgets and had to trade for more salary slots to get to that number.

He's going to make more money in endorsements and his MLB extension could possibly come as soon as after his rookie season or up to 3 years in the majors. I've presented a hypothetical scenario on such an extension in the last post of the previous page of this thread, which was based on projections by FanGraphs.

Granted my numbers and projections may be off, but the point is that he can theoretically recapture a lot of the money he missed out on in not waiting. However, it's noteworthy to remember that Otani wouldn't be getting that $200-million contract right now, anyway, since MLB's revised restrictions require him to wait 2 more years to not be subject to the international signing guidelines. He supposedly made about $2 million this past season in NPB, so he'd only be giving up maybe $4 million in NPB salary by coming over 2 years early.

While his hypothetical extension won't be of the $200 million variety, it will still be a significant raise over what he was making in Nippon Professional Baseball and could lessen his overall projected losses to anywhere from $83 million to $47 million when all is said and done. Again, my numbers are not reliable, but it re-iterates that Otani wouldn't really be sacrificing much money at all in the short term with a future contract extension lessening the overall losses over the long term.

Plus, this doesn't even factor in the endorsement opportunities he would have in Los Angeles. The Dodgers could have some deals lined up with 3rd parties that would pay him handsomely without circumventing the MLB restrictions. Money will not be the deciding factor with Otani.

I think it will come down to whether a team will give him opportunities to play 2-way baseball.

huh? we already have gone over this. money isn't the issue here, we can't sign him at all until July. season starts in April. I am saying he will not wait until July just to sign with us, but it would be awesome if he would. but no way he sits out until July. he will be signed before the preseason starts. most likely before the spring training even starts. that pushes the negotiations and money to transfer between whoever gets him to the ball club in Sapporo. from my understanding of the situation, we can't even officially make an offer to the Nippon Ham Fighters until again, July of 2018.

[Ranma]

huh? we already have gone over this. money isn't the issue here, we can't sign him at all until July. season starts in April. I am saying he will not wait until July just to sign with us, but it would be awesome if he would. but no way he sits out until July. he will be signed before the preseason starts. most likely before the spring training even starts. that pushes the negotiations and money to transfer between whoever gets him to the ball club in Sapporo. from my understanding of the situation, we can't even officially make an offer to the Nippon Ham Fighters until again, July of 2018.

No, we can. The posting fee doesn't count towards our restrictions. We're limited to offering him only $300,000 as long as we don't exceed our overall international budget, which we haven't. Even if we did, we can still trade for a salary slot to easily cover that paltry amount.

The Dodgers are not the only team limited to the $300,000 offer beyond the projected $20-million posting fee, which again, does not factor into our international restrictions. The Cubs and Giants are also limited to the same amount as us and all 3 teams are reportedly in the running.

As long as Otani is fine with just $300,000 as a signing bonus plus the $545,000 minimum salary for 2018, he can sign with whichever MLB team he so chooses as long as that team is willing to pay the required posting fee. This is why it's reported that pretty much every team is in pursuit of him.

[Neddy]

huh? we already have gone over this. money isn't the issue here, we can't sign him at all until July. season starts in April. I am saying he will not wait until July just to sign with us, but it would be awesome if he would. but no way he sits out until July. he will be signed before the preseason starts. most likely before the spring training even starts. that pushes the negotiations and money to transfer between whoever gets him to the ball club in Sapporo. from my understanding of the situation, we can't even officially make an offer to the Nippon Ham Fighters until again, July of 2018.

No, we can. The posting fee doesn't count towards our restrictions. We're limited to offering him only $300,000 as long as we don't exceed our overall international budget, which we haven't. Even if we did, we can still trade for a salary slot to easily cover that paltry amount.

The Dodgers are not the only team limited to the $300,000 offer beyond the projected $20-million posting fee, which again, does not factor into our international restrictions. The Cubs and Giants are also limited to the same amount and us and all 3 teams are reportedly in the running.

As long as Otani is fine with just $300,000 as a signing bonus plus the $545,000 minimum salary for 2018, he can sign with whichever MLB he so chooses as long as that team is willing to pay the required posting fee. This is why it's reported that pretty much every team is in pursuit of him.

so, we can not only negotiate with him and the Hammies, but also play him from the start of the season? is that what you are telling me? what was the July thing about? I am missing out on some very important information here.

[Ranma]

so, we can not only negotiate with him and the Hammies, but also play him from the start of the season? is that what you are telling me? what was the July thing about? I am missing out on some very important information here.

Yep. Unless the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters are still holding a grudge over our aggressive pursuit of Otani back in 2012, we can negotiate with them, but it will be Otani's decision, anyway, and there shouldn't really be a need to negotiate with his NPB team as long as the Dodgers are willing to pay the maximum posting fee, which is not even a question.

The only reason to wait until July, 2018 is for us to be able to possibly offer him just over $8 million (after trading for the max amount of salary slots) because the restrictions would no longer apply to the Dodgers. Until then, the max the Dodgers can offer is $300,000 as a signing bonus.

[Neddy]

so, we can not only negotiate with him and the Hammies, but also play him from the start of the season? is that what you are telling me? what was the July thing about? I am missing out on some very important information here.

Yep. Unless the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters are still holding a grudge over our aggressive pursuit of Otani back in 2012, we can negotiate with them, but it will be Otani's decision, anyway, and there shouldn't really be a need to negotiate with his NPB team as long as the Dodgers are willing to pay the maximum posting fee, which is not even a question.

The only reason to wait until July, 2018 is for us to be able to possibly offer him just over $8 million (after trading for the max amount of salary slots) because the restrictions would no longer apply to the Dodgers. Until then, the max the Dodgers can offer is $300,000 as a signing bonus.

a ha! now you said it I do remember about that. thanks a bunch for clarifying that for me!

[Ranma]

a ha! now you said it I do remember about that. thanks a bunch for clarifying that for me!

It's my pleasure. I've been looking forward to joining you in the excitement of the chase for Shohei Otani.