Draft/ International Signing Day?

[Ranma]

I don't know all the details but there's a possibility that the Gurriels could possibly be cleared to sign this month in light of the Obama administration's efforts. There may be a futile fight put up by Congress and Cuba may not be agreeable to a deal that doesn't have a portion of the money from the players' contracts go to their government, but there seems to be serious headway being made at the moment. Stay tuned.
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[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

Excellent.

Looks like he's going to be available before our window closes.


We need to outbid everybody for this kid. The international period will go from an A to an A++

[Quake Griffin]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tAll7xB-8M[/youtube]

from 2 days ago

[Ranma]

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Josh Norris, Baseball America (3/20/16)

Alvarez used a loose, whippy arm to generate lively fastballs that started out in the low-90s and eventually built to the mid-90s before touching 99 mph near his outing’s end. He coupled the pitch with a low-80s slider that garnered swings and misses as well.
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Alvarez has a changeup as well, but didn’t show it in this outing. Dodgers pitching coordinator Rick Knapp watched his newest pupil and was pleased with the results.

“He looked pretty good. You could see that,” he said. “Fastball is live and his breaking ball’s got some nice spin, rotation, tilt, bite, whatever you want to use. His changeup isn’t really where it needs to be yet, but … there’s liveliness to his arm.”
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The Dodgers have tinkered with Alvarez a little bit since signing him, specifically they’ve shortened his arm action a little bit and have worked to keep him on line toward home plate, which will help toward ironing out the command issues that popped up in Cuba.
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“He’s trying to sort out some delivery things. His delivery’s a lot cleaner than when we signed him,” he said. “We’re really pleased with where he’s at in the process.”

Dodgers’ Alvarez Dazzles on Back Fields

[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

Young Vlad....where art thou?

You give us all a show case and then don't sign anywhere?
Any news?

[Ranma]

I haven't heard anything about Vladimir Gutierrez or Lazaro Armenteros. It's troubling that Gutierrez still hasn't signed after his latest workout, which supposedly showed his stuff returning after his 1st workout caused teams to be quite concerned. Interest in Lazarito apparently has dried up after his investor threatened his former US agent. His camp pushed out Charles Hairston because they wanted to sign right away, so the fact that they still haven't is not a good sign for them.

I still have interest in Gutierrez on a deal that would be less than $10 million, but I'd be fine with missing out on both of them. The Gurriel brothers are my top priority for the remaining available Cuban players. If they're holding out for a big payday in the next signing period, then I wouldn't be interested, anyway. The hype for them both has reached Eddy Julio Martinez's level of deflation.

[Ranma]

Ben Badler, Baseball America (4/13/16)

Frank (San Diego): Who would you guess Lazarito ends up signing with?

Ben Badler: My sense is the Padres are the favorites for Lazaro Armenteros. But not the overwhelming favorites like they are to get Jorge Ona and Adrian Morejon.
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Proswagonist (Liberl): Which teams are in the lead to sign Vladimir Gutierrez?

Ben Badler: I'm not sure there is an obvious frontrunner at this point, but I think it will be one of the teams that's already over their bonus pool or that's committed to going over for 2016. A team going over just to sign Gutierrez would surprise me. Sounds like he'll probably have another showcase soon to get more eyeballs on him after the buzz he generated from his last workout that JJ Cooper wrote about.
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Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Talk about an international draft seems to have quieted a bit, is it still something MLB will pursue in the next CBA?

Ben Badler: Yes. They tried pulling it off last time around and just weren't able to execute it. Whether it's a draft or a far more restrictive free agent signing system with regards to what teams are allowed to spend, there will be significant changes to the international rules (even before accounting for what to do with Cuban players) because the owners want to limit their spending and the union doesn't fight for players who aren't on 40-man rosters, so they won't stand in the way.
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David (Vicenza, Italy): Ben, what can you tell us about Luis Robert?

Ben Badler: He’s one of my favorite players still in Cuba. Some swing-and-miss concerns, but physicality, athleticism, power and speed are all exciting.
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Jackson (NJ): Any news on the Gourriel brothers possibly signing this summer ?

Ben Badler: Lourdes Gurriel won't sign until October, because that's when he turns 23 and will become exempt from the international bonus pools. I do think there's more of a chance that MLB could expedite Yulieski's timetable and make him a free agent a little earlier than initially expected and give him a chance to get his career started in the second half this season, but the decision making coming from the commissioner's office regarding Cuban players and international matters in general has always been bizarre, to put it one way.
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j (Philly): How long before we worry about our favorite prospects striking out a third of the time?

Ben Badler: I don’t have a specific number of plate appearances because each player and their context is different. The Dodgers have Omar Estevez, who has spent nearly his whole life in Cuba and is now the youngest player in the Midwest League, where he’s getting used to playing in competitive games after a layoff and in temperatures he’s never faced before. You have to evaluate him and his performance differently than you would a 22-year-old draft pick out of Vanderbilt in A-ball, or a two-sport athlete out of high school who’s just starting to focus on baseball. I really liked Vince’s story the other day on Sandy Alcantara talking about how he could barely feel his hands when he was pitching, because that context is always important to keep in mind. (Or if you just want a shorter answer, at least give ’em a month or so.)

Baseball America Prospects Chat

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

If his upcoming showcase has Vladimir Gutierrez fully recovered with stable mechanics, we should get him. The article linked below has video of him pitching in Cuba, which particularly highlights his wicked curveball. If his velocity is indeed up with more to come, he will be a hard proposition to pass on. I still doubt he'll get Yadier Alvarez or Yusniel Diaz money, but anything below a $10 million signing bonus could be a bargain.

The versatile Randy Arozarena was also mentioned but he seems inclined to wait until the next signing period for a bigger payday similar to what I think Lazaro Armenteros is doing. Neither are hardly worth fretting about. After Gutierrez, the Gurriels are my only concern with regard to the Cuban market.

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Ben Badler, Baseball America (4/20/16)

His stock rebounded in a breakout performance last month in Florida, where J.J. Cooper wrote that Gutierrez sat at 92-94 mph and touched 96, flashing a hammer curveball up to 80 mph that was his signature out pitch in Cuba. Gutierrez has since been up to 97 mph in private showings, a significant increase from where he was last summer and more velocity than he ever showed in Cuba, when he was 88-93 mph but had all the physical indicators between his arm speed and lanky 6-foot-3 frame that more velocity would be coming.

The showcase will likely draw in more senior-level evaluators from teams that had previously been scratching their heads on Gutierrez after his showings last summer. It should also leave enough time for teams currently over their bonus pool—including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Royals—to make a decision before the 2015-16 signing period ends on June 15 and they are no longer able to sign pool-eligible players like Gutierrez for more than $300,000.

Cuban Updates: New Gutierrez Showcase Set, Arozarena Playing In Mexico

[Ranma]

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Ben Badler, BaseballAmerica.com (4/29/16)

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Is it likely that Vlad Guttierez and Alfredo Rodriguez wait for July 2 at this point?

Ben Badler: Alfredo Rodriguez is waiting until July 2, then he's going to sign with the Reds, unless something changes. Gutierrez I should have a longer update on after I'm done chatting, but it just depends who signs him. There are teams over their pool right now in on him that would sign him immediately, but otherwise he'll reach a deal and just wait until July 2 to officially sign so the team can file him under its 2016-17 pool.

Prospect Hot Sheet Chat


Ben Badler, Baseball America (4/29/16)

On Friday, the lanky 6-foot-3 Gutierrez threw around 75 pitches, with around 30 pitches to warm up on the mound, then another 45 or so split over three innings of a simulated game against low-level hitters from the Phillies’ extended spring training squad. Reports on Gutierrez’s velocity generally ranged from 93-96 mph, consistent with what he showed at his previous showcase last month. That’s an increase from what Gutierrez was throwing in Cuba, and he’s hit 97 mph recently in private showings.

Gutierrez also impressed scouts in attendance with his curveball, showing sharp bite and tight spin, though while he generated a lot of weak contact, he didn’t get much swing-and-miss. Gutierrez was mostly a two-pitch guy in Cuba, and while he occasionally flashed an average changeup there, his changeup got mixed reviews today, and he sprinkled a slider in as well that wasn’t as good as his curve.

While Gutierrez’s fastball command did waver at times, he threw more strikes Friday than he did in previous outings. Scouts have pointed out that there are a lot of moving parts in his mechanics that he has to sync up, showing more control once he simplified his delivery pitching from the stretch, but that those are tweaks he could smooth out with professional instruction.

Astros, Dodgers Show Strong Presence At Vladimir Gutierrez Showcase

[Ranma]

Ben Badler, BaseballAmerica.com (5/4/16)

Hansford (Mansfield, Tx): Given the recent improvements in Vladimir Gutierrez's stuff, has Gutierrez moved ahead of Norge Ruiz or do you still like Ruiz better?
Ben Badler: It’s close. Gutierrez has a better fastball and curveball, with more room to project on his fastball picking up another tick or two, whereas Ruiz has a wider repertoire of average to plus pitches and better feel for pitching. I’d probably stick with Ruiz for now based on history, but that might change quickly.
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Henry (LA): With Erisbel Arrubarenna now suspended for the rest of the year, what lessons can we learn from him to the Cuban market?
Ben Badler: I’m not sure there are too many lessons to take away from one player, other than to make sure you’re scouting a player as thoroughly as possible and gathering as much information as you can on him for years before you make a major investment. You could say don’t put big money into Cuban players who don’t hit, but then there’s Jose Iglesias and even Adeiny Hechavarria. You could say stay away from bad makeup guys (and man, he’s pissed off just about everyone from the front office to the coaches to his teammates), but the Dodgers and Reds both got team-friendly deals from Puig and Chapman. Teams make enormous mistakes with major league free agent contracts all the time too. Obviously there are differences in the way teams have to sign Cuban players, but getting as many looks and as much information on these players before they leave Cuba and having good talent evaluators in place to make those judgments remains critical in that market.

Baseball America Prospects Chat

[Ranma]

Vladimir Gutierrez was not only the 2nd-ranked-overall prospect in the 2015 international class, but he's also 2nd overall for the 2016 class even though I suspect he'll sign (with the Dodgers) during the period that covers 2015. The 2016 class has some intriguing names such as Kevin Maitan, Luis Almanzar, Abrahan Gutierrez, and Randy Arozarena. Even Lazaro "Lazarito" Armenteros is anticipated to be included in this class.

Maitan sounds like the best international prospect to be available over the past few years even over Yoan Moncada with comparisons to Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones. This does not include the Gurriel brothers given their pending status as free agents not subject to the international signing guidelines. A. Gutierrez is ranked surprisingly low at 17th overall despite the fact that I consider him to be a better prospect than Lazarito, who is ranked 4th overall. Gutierrez's hitting, power, and run ratings are particularly low given how generously skewed these ratings tend to be on the international side. Almanzar looks like a promising prospect, but he's a notch or two above his competition in a class that looks to be deep in SS talent. This class, however, is lacking in pitching, especially if V. Gutierrez will be out of the mix.

I got to admit that, if given the choice, having a batch of signings that includes Kevin Maitan, Abrahan Gutierrez, Luis Almanzar, and Vladimir Gutierrez would be preferable to one that includes Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz, Starling Heredia, and Rony Brito. However, V. Gutierrez will likely join the latter group. Plus, as it was previously discussed, the Dodgers aimed for and were conceivably close to having its signing class include all of Yoan Moncada, Yoan Lopez, Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz, Lucius Fox, Starling Heredia, Eddy Julio Martinez, and Rony Brito. This doesn't even include the still available Vladimir Gutierrez, Yulieski Gurriel, and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr.

It is also interesting to note that MLB is investigating the Boston Red Sox for circumventing the international signing guidelines through the widely known practice of packaged signings. I'm all for cracking down on these practices, but I'm not happy to hear of investigators strong-arming kids into coercing information out of them. Plus, it is curious that MLB would choose to be strict now. I'm sure the Dodgers could be considered guilty as well given the widespread practice already employed by other teams. If Major Leage Baseball wants to hold teams from circumventing the international bonus pools, then it better be consistent and constantly vigilant in enforcing such strict guidelines instead of selectively choosing when to rattle its saber.

Jesse Sanchez, MLB.com (5/5/16)

Many evaluators believe Cuban right-handed pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez, ranked No. 2, could have an immediate impact on a big league club. Gutierrez, who turns 21 in September, throws a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s and a plus curveball. He was Rookie of the Year in Cuba's Serie Nacional during the 2013-14 season and is not afraid of the big stage.

Breaking Down the Top 30 International Prospects List


Ben Badler, Baseball America (5/11/16)

Major League Baseball is investigating the Red Sox over their 2015 international signings, focusing on whether the team signed multiple Venezuelan players in “package deals” and whether that would be considered a circumvention of MLB’s international bonus pools, according to multiple international sources.

During the process, MLB officials questioned players as young as 16 individually, according to multiple sources, and threatened to suspend them if they were not truthful. The commissioner’s office acknowledged the questioning but said no players were threatened with suspension.
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Aside from the particulars of how the questioning was handled, why MLB is investigating the Red Sox at all—as well as the timing of the investigation—is certainly curious. Package deals are not explicitly against MLB rules, and many teams sign multiple players from the same trainer, either at the same time or over a multi-year period. These deals took place before the bonus pools ever existed and have continued since the bonus pool era began in 2012. No team has ever been penalized for doing any type of package deal, according to the commissioner’s office.

Furthermore, MLB officials knew last year that the Red Sox were signing several players from the same trainers, and the commissioner’s office approved those contracts. According to one source, the Red Sox are the only team under investigation for doing package deals.

MLB Investigates Red Sox Over International Signings

[Quake Griffin]

You have anyidea how Maitan compares to Lucius Fox?

[Ranma]

You have anyidea how Maitan compares to Lucius Fox?

From what I understand, Maitan is clearly the better bat while Fox is more likely to stick at SS defensively. However, there are questions as to whether Fox may actually be a better fit in CF, which is a little surprising to me. Maitan, on the other hand, projects more at 3B once his body fills out.

Also, it's not as if Fox is a natural wizard with the glove, but I projected his development would keep him at SS, but we'll see how he actually develops in the Giants' farm system. Even if Fox sticks at SS and Maitan is moved off of that position, everyone thinks Maitan is the superior prospect. I personally think he's better than Moncada and have had that opinion for a couple of years now.

[Ranma]

Ben Badler, BaseballAmerica.com (5/11/16)

Jake (Los Angeles): Do you think Dodgers fans should be worried about MLB investigating LA's package deals? As you wrote in your initial article about these deals, the Pablo Millán Fernández deal looks obviously shady.
Ben Badler: I think they made a huge overpay for Pablo Millan Fernandez, but I don’t necessarily know that it was shady. The only other Cuban player they signed at the time was Yadier Alvarez, and at $32 million for a pitcher who walked a batter per inning in an 18U league in Cuba the year before, that doesn’t seem like a discount to me. Maybe I’m naive. I think they may have just genuinely misevaluated him; it’s not like that would be the first time for them misjudging a Cuban player, or anyone misjudging a player for that matter. But Yusniel Diaz and Omar Estevez did come from the same program and signed at the same time. I’m not saying that should be investigated, but it’s just another example of a team signing multiple players from the same program, which happens all the time around the league.
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Frank (LA): Yusniel Diaz is destroying A+. Is he the real deal? What do you think is his ceiling and eta?
Ben Badler: Very good athlete, plus runner, good hitter with excellent hand-eye coordination, so yeah, he’s real in that regard, someone I could see being in the mix for our Top 100 list if he keeps it up. The early power is more of a mirage—he’s more of a line-drive type guy who hit all his homers in Lancaster—but a center fielder who can hit is valuable. The Dodgers are pushing their minor league players aggressively, but he’s probably at least a couple years away from MLB still.
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JOhn B (Stamford, CT): ANy idea when the Gourriel brothers will be eligible to sign?
Ben Badler: Based on MLB’s previous recent history in clearing Cuban players to sign, I would bet on August or so. But Lourdes Jr. won’t sign until he turns 23 in October and becomes exempt from the bonus pools, and see previous answer re: caveats on predicting actions of the commissioner’s office when it comes to international matters.

Baseball America Prospects Chat

[Quake Griffin]

Times a tickin.


Any time we want to sign Vlad will be great with me.

[Ranma]

Times a tickin.

Any time we want to sign Vlad will be great with me.

The Dodgers apparently are still doing their due diligence before the close of the current international signing period, so I suspect Gutierrez's camp is trying to hold out for a huge price tag. The thing is, the Dodgers have the biggest checkbook, so if we don't bite, it's unlikely someone else will beat our offer unless he already has an agreement to wait for another team during the next signing period.

Having said that, yeah, it's about time we get a deal done with him as he's really the only worthwhile target available to sign at this point until the Gurriels become unrestricted.

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