2016-2017 off season thread.

Neddy · Post #221 » by **Neddy** » Sat Dec 3, 2016 2:31 am

**** I just read that the international free agent signnee under the age of 25 will have 5 million maximum salary upon signing under the new CBA.

there goes Otani sweepstake until the end of 2019.

Neddy · Post #222 » by **Neddy** » Sat Dec 3, 2016 4:50 pm

Tyson Ross and our old friend Chris Withrow have been non tendered. Chris may be better off seeking employement over the other side of the pacific, they will pay him better than getting a ST invite or a minor league deal but Tyson and his rib removed shoulder area is a great deal of interest to us all, I'm sure.

knowing who the Padres are ran by, I am also certain that Ross' outlook is grim at least for 2017, but thoracic outlet syndome surgeries have now gained some traction and proven record behind it. our own Beckett did well afterwards, and between Roger Clemens to Tyson Ross, there have been numerous others, Matt Harvey comes to mind and Chris Young too. we can sign him, make a few moves to protect our prospects then stash him in 60 day DL. with all the rumors about the team's finance tho, $$$ may eventually become the issue as he is certainly a high risk, high reward guy.

Neddy · Post #223 » by **Neddy** » Sat Dec 3, 2016 5:22 pm

BTW I am getting so tired of reading laker fandom-sounding dodger fans ( and our fellow brothers in blue who are laker fans know what I mean. you have posters in your laker forums who are just not that perceptive but are very loud with their complains in childish manners. we have one in the clipper forum who used to be one of yours until about 2 years ago that does the same. hyperboles after another and always fatalistic) all over the internet bemoaning about how we have wasted precious money we could be resigning Jansen and Turner with to Cuban prospects. they forget that Alex Guerrero and Irisbel Arruebarrena were Ned's signings and Hector Olivera's signing was what brought us the Mat Latos deal which still has us one Alex Wood on the roster. all other young players signed by the current regime has been to take adavntage of a unique market that was only available to rich franchises to stach prospects other small market teams could not. now we have a rich minor league system which we can pull resoruce for future trades, as well as grooming them for our own roster. Yaisel Sierra has been a bust so far but Diaz, Alvarez, and to certain exend, Omar Estevez. that last kid is still only 18, no? in fact, I feel like all the SS/2B prospects are all really trade assets starting from Gavin Lux, Branden Davis, Iman Abdulla, WIllie Calhoun, and Estevez. maybe one of them will turn out to the be the future 2nd base for the dodgers. but we will see.

if Jansen and Turner are in the plans, we still have the means to sign them. Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier's contracts are coming off the books after 2017. Howie's 5 million is on the books for 2018, which then Gonzo's money comes off the books as well. we won't be resigning Anderson to start the next season either. we have the means if it must be spent, but as I have been saying for some time, Turner's split does not fix our issues against left handed pitching, and Jansen's 3 WAR value is very debateable to see if that should warrent the contract he will command. I wonder if we can sign him, and have him pitch well, then have another team that needs a closer to pull off a three way trade, bringing in Britton and Machado to us, meanwhile having the Jansen's recieving team to cough up some prospects to add to the pile we have to give up. we would obivously be able to keep more prospects than if we were to do a straight up deal with Orioles, and if we can keep Bellinger and our pitching, why not?

anywho, with all the day dreaming aside, the prospects we have, most of them have bright future as our own players or as trading chips. we are in a good situation. some fans need to consider the facts beyond just next season.

Quake Griffin · Post #224 » by **Quake Griffin** » Sat Dec 3, 2016 8:14 pm

Neddy wrote:BTW I am getting so tired of reading laker fandom-sounding dodger fans ( and our fellow brothers in blue who are laker fans know what I mean. you have posters in your laker forums who are just not that perceptive but are very loud with their complains in childish manners. we have one in the clipper forum who used to be one of yours until about 2 years ago that does the same. hyperboles after another and always fatalistic) all over the internet bemoaning about how we have wasted precious money we could be resigning Jansen and Turner with to Cuban prospects. they forget that Alex Guerrero and Irisbel Arruebarrena were Ned's signings and Hector Olivera's signing was what brought us the Mat Latos deal which still has us one Alex Wood on the roster. all other young players signed by the current regime has been to take adavntage of a unique market that was only available to rich franchises to stach prospects other small market teams could not. now we have a rich minor league system which we can pull resoruce for future trades, as well as grooming them for our own roster. Yaisel Sierra has been a bust so far but Diaz, Alvarez, and to certain exend, Omar Estevez. that last kid is still only 18, no? in fact, I feel like all the SS/2B prospects are all really trade assets starting from Gavin Lux, Branden Davis, Iman Abdulla, WIllie Calhoun, and Estevez. maybe one of them will turn out to the be the future 2nd base for the dodgers. but we will see.

if Jansen and Turner are in the plans, we still have the means to sign them. Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier's contracts are coming off the books after 2017. Howie's 5 million is on the books for 2018, which then Gonzo's money comes off the books as well. we won't be resigning Anderson to start the next season either. we have the means if it must be spent, but as I have been saying for some time, Turner's split does not fix our issues against left handed pitching, and Jansen's 3 WAR value is very debateable to see if that should warrent the contract he will command. I wonder if we can sign him, and have him pitch well, then have another team that needs a closer to pull off a three way trade, bringing in Britton and Machado to us, meanwhile having the Jansen's recieving team to cough up some prospects to add to the pile we have to give up. we would obivously be able to keep more prospects than if we were to do a straight up deal with Orioles, and if we can keep Bellinger and our pitching, why not?

anywho, with all the day dreaming aside, the prospects we have, most of them have bright future as our own players or as trading chips. we are in a good situation. some fans need to consider the facts beyond just next season.

Wait.

Give me an example of what you're proposing for that Jansen deal.

Whats coming in and going out forceach team?

I think I'm all the way on board. Just wanna see to make sure we're thinking the same thing.

Neddy · Post #225 » by **Neddy** » Sat Dec 3, 2016 8:46 pm

Quake Griffin wrote:
Neddy wrote:BTW I am getting so tired of reading laker fandom-sounding dodger fans ( and our fellow brothers in blue who are laker fans know what I mean. you have posters in your laker forums who are just not that perceptive but are very loud with their complains in childish manners. we have one in the clipper forum who used to be one of yours until about 2 years ago that does the same. hyperboles after another and always fatalistic) all over the internet bemoaning about how we have wasted precious money we could be resigning Jansen and Turner with to Cuban prospects. they forget that Alex Guerrero and Irisbel Arruebarrena were Ned's signings and Hector Olivera's signing was what brought us the Mat Latos deal which still has us one Alex Wood on the roster. all other young players signed by the current regime has been to take adavntage of a unique market that was only available to rich franchises to stach prospects other small market teams could not. now we have a rich minor league system which we can pull resoruce for future trades, as well as grooming them for our own roster. Yaisel Sierra has been a bust so far but Diaz, Alvarez, and to certain exend, Omar Estevez. that last kid is still only 18, no? in fact, I feel like all the SS/2B prospects are all really trade assets starting from Gavin Lux, Branden Davis, Iman Abdulla, WIllie Calhoun, and Estevez. maybe one of them will turn out to the be the future 2nd base for the dodgers. but we will see.

if Jansen and Turner are in the plans, we still have the means to sign them. Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier's contracts are coming off the books after 2017. Howie's 5 million is on the books for 2018, which then Gonzo's money comes off the books as well. we won't be resigning Anderson to start the next season either. we have the means if it must be spent, but as I have been saying for some time, Turner's split does not fix our issues against left handed pitching, and Jansen's 3 WAR value is very debateable to see if that should warrent the contract he will command. I wonder if we can sign him, and have him pitch well, then have another team that needs a closer to pull off a three way trade, bringing in Britton and Machado to us, meanwhile having the Jansen's recieving team to cough up some prospects to add to the pile we have to give up. we would obivously be able to keep more prospects than if we were to do a straight up deal with Orioles, and if we can keep Bellinger and our pitching, why not?

anywho, with all the day dreaming aside, the prospects we have, most of them have bright future as our own players or as trading chips. we are in a good situation. some fans need to consider the facts beyond just next season.

Wait.

Give me an example of what you're proposing for that Jansen deal.

Whats coming in and going out forceach team?

I think I'm all the way on board. Just wanna see to make sure we're thinking the same thing.

obviously, this is very hypothetical, but say a team like the Nats who are seeking all kinds of trades to gain an edge to win it all, loses out on all 3 major closers in the market today, and we get to the mid season and they are still looking for an answer. they have Anthony Rendon at 3rd and may not necessarily want to depart with all of their elite group of prospects to land a closer, but are willing to eat salaries to make it happen.

the O's send Machado and Britton to the Dodgers.
they get Sheldon Neuse and Koda Glover from the Nats, plus Jordan Sheffield, Gavin Lux and Alex Verdugo from the dodgers.

the Nats recieve Kenley Jansen and Andre Ethier from the dodgers and the entirety of their salary
they then send prospects Sheldon Neuse and Koda Glover to the O's. they also send Spencer Kieboom to the dodgers.

the Dodgers recieve Manny Machado, Zach Britton from the O's and Spencer Kieboom from the Nats.
they send out Jordan Sheffield, Gavin Lux, and Alex Verdugo to the O's, and Kenley Jansen and Andre Ethier to the Nats.

the Nats get their closer with a long term deal locked in, they get a half a season of rental from a lefty vet Ethier who can be a good pinch hitter/outfielder who can balance their right hand heavy lineup. they are only out of 3 prospects after probably depleting their farm for Andrew McCutchen trade before the season and they are truly in win-now mode with Harper's FA pending soon.

the O's get their farm stacked with a SS prospect in Gavin, 3rd base in Sheldon, the superstar in making, the center piece that is RF to be, Alex Verdugo, then two pitching prospects whom are at worst a pair of closers in the making, if not starters who are power pitchers. I don't think they will be contending and I do believe they will reboot rather than reload in a win-now ALE.

the Dodgers are out of good prospects but much easier to swallow the loss of Shef/Lux/Alex than adding Bellinger and De Leon to it. Sheldon and Koda are not at the caliber of the latter two mentioned but they do address the immediate need for the O's. and we get to have the closer and Machado a season or two early for the O's maximize their return.

maybe still a pipe dream, but a quick scenario to brainstorm and I think with a few more moves give and take, it is a very possible one.

Ranma · Post #226 » by **Ranma** » Sat Dec 3, 2016 10:47 pm

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Neddy · Post #227 » by **Neddy** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 12:34 am

if true, this is a great news!

Kershaw
Hill
Urias
De Leon
Maeda

and if healthy,

Kazmir
McCarthy
Ryu

to follow. we can keep De Leon as a middle relief if starting roles are filled, then convert one of the DL guys into a closer and the other loser of the rotation as the set up man. if unhealthy, we still have a 5 men rotation.

chances are, that Hill will probably pitch somewhere around 130 to 150 innings tops. you can pair him with De Leon as the combined 1/5 of the rotation. Kershaw will get close to 180 but still expect him to be hurt for a few weeks, real or perceived to rest him, Maeda will surely need his breaks unless we want him on a surgery table. whether K-M-R DL boys are ready or not, there will be a need to dip into the minors for some lenghty starts by Stewart-Oaks-De Jung and that is with counting on De Leon to be on the rotation at some point.

still a damn good news.

Neddy · Post #228 » by **Neddy** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 12:41 am

out of the injury boys, I think McCarthy is most likely to return in full strength and if back, most likely to be an effective starter.

Kershaw
Hill
McCarthy
Urias
Maeda

is probably the likely rotation with De Leon starting from the AAA. again, can't count on Ryu but he also does not cost all that much, I think Kazmir and his thoracic inflammation is the most unpredictable, and high risk member of them all. if able, his stuff may translate the best as a closer tho.

Ranma · Post #229 » by **Ranma** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 1:48 am

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Ranma · Post #230 » by **Ranma** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 7:27 am

Neddy wrote:I too am wondering if Jansen and Turner's QO are worth 1st rounders still or we are already at 2nd and 5th stage as the new CBA states.

if the QO are now only worth a 2nd and 5th, is it still worth it to risk them leaving? or should be accept that it is only money and sign them back?

The draft-pick compensation component of the new CBA would not be in effect for this offseason, but next offseason even though everything else seems to go into effect immediately. From what I understand, the new CBA limits a player from receiving more than one qualifying offer during his career. Meanwhile, teams who sign players who reject their qualifying offer will lose draft picks based on the following criteria:

"3rd-highest draft pick" (third-round selection?) if team is receiving revenue sharing funds
"2nd-highest draft pick" (second-round selection?), "5th-highest draft pick" (fifth-round selection?), and loss of $1 million from international signing pool budget if team is paying luxury tax
just a "2nd-highest draft pick" (second-round selection?) and loss of $500,000 from international signing pool budget for all other teams

Makes me wonder what happens when a team signs multiple free agents who've rejected their qualifying offers. For instance, would the Dodgers lose picks in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th rounds and $2 million from the international signing pool budget for signing 2 UFAs as a luxury-taxed team? Are there limits to the presumed increased penalty or is it the same set penalty regardless of how many free agents we sign?

Also, teams who lose free agents who've rejected the qualifying offer will receive draft-pick compensation based on the following criteria:

draft pick in Competitive Lottery Round A (late first-round selection) if player signs for $50 million or more
draft pick in Competitive Lottery Round B (late second-round selection) if player signs for less than $50 million
draft pick after 4th round (fifth-round selection) if team pays the luxury tax

Now I'm unclear if the luxury-taxed team will get a pick in the 5th round regardless of how much the lost player signs for or if it only applies to lost players who sign for less than $50 million. I'm assuming it's the latter.

In any case, there are severe penalties that seem to have the Dodgers in mind when the new CBA was put together, especially with the 95% tax on overages for 3rd-time-consecutive offenders with budgets over $235 million, so we have to get below the luxury tax threshold soon in order to limit losing and/or devaluing our draft picks and funds from our international signing pool budget. The good news is that we're poised to accomplish that within the next couple of seasons, if not sooner depending on the moves to be made by Friedman & Co.

If we were losing only picks in the 2nd and 5th rounds and lower plus international signing money, then it would be a no-brainer to sign both Jansen and Turner back up even with our aim to get below the luxury tax. However, since we'll get first-round compensation for each, I'm leaning towards not meeting their anticipated asking prices.

Ranma · Post #231 » by **Ranma** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 7:59 am

Neddy wrote:**** I just read that the international free agent signnee under the age of 25 will have 5 million maximum salary upon signing under the new CBA.

there goes Otani sweepstake until the end of 2019.

Yeah, I noticed that too. At least it applies to everyone and not just us, but it'd be a bummer not to have Kershaw and Otani spearheading the Dodgers' rotation in their primes. By the time Otani heads over, Kershaw could be approaching his down years and Otani would add more stress to his arm and wear to his body with the Japanese pitching regimen and doing double duty as a position player. He'll still be young but it would take him at least a season to adjust to the MLB routine to shake the habits acquired during his time in NPB.

Also, I'm not sure if the new CBA actually affects MLB's agreement with NPB and the KBO as there still seems to be a lack of clarification on that but I assume it will include both Pacific-Rim leagues instead of just Latin American players.

However, there is something to keep in mind that nobody seems to be talking about. While Otani would certainly make less money coming over before he was 25 years old than he would as a true MLB free agent, he'd still make significantly more than what he is currently making in NPB. What's to keep him from signing for 2-3 years at about $6 million per season and then re-signing with his new MLB club (or signing with whomever else) for much, much more?

Of course, the team paying a $20-million posting fee would want more years of team control, but it'd still get Otani for about $16 million per season for 2 or 3 seasons while also likely having the inside track towards re-signing him. I wouldn't close the door on Otani coming over next winter just yet.

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Ranma · Post #232 » by **Ranma** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 8:15 am

Neddy wrote:Tyson Ross and our old friend Chris Withrow have been non tendered. Chris may be better off seeking employement over the other side of the pacific, they will pay him better than getting a ST invite or a minor league deal but Tyson and his rib removed shoulder area is a great deal of interest to us all, I'm sure.

knowing who the Padres are ran by, I am also certain that Ross' outlook is grim at least for 2017, but thoracic outlet syndome surgeries have now gained some traction and proven record behind it. our own Beckett did well afterwards, and between Roger Clemens to Tyson Ross, there have been numerous others, Matt Harvey comes to mind and Chris Young too. we can sign him, make a few moves to protect our prospects then stash him in 60 day DL. with all the rumors about the team's finance tho, $$$ may eventually become the issue as he is certainly a high risk, high reward guy.

I wouldn't mind taking flyers on both Ross and Withrow provided they're willing to take less money on minor-league deals with incentives in order to rehab themselves under Dodger instruction and development.

Ranma · Post #233 » by **Ranma** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 8:59 am

Neddy wrote:if true, this is a great news!

Kershaw
Hill
Urias
De Leon
Maeda

and if healthy,

Kazmir
McCarthy
Ryu

Neddy wrote:out of the injury boys, I think McCarthy is most likely to return in full strength and if back, most likely to be an effective starter.

Kershaw
Hill
McCarthy
Urias
Maeda

is probably the likely rotation with De Leon starting from the AAA. again, can't count on Ryu but he also does not cost all that much, I think Kazmir and his thoracic inflammation is the most unpredictable, and high risk member of them all. if able, his stuff may translate the best as a closer tho.

I'm hearing that the deal for Rich Hill is closer to 3 years at $48 million and that it could possibly be announced by tomorrow. It's basically what we gave Scott Kazmir, except without the deferments, which extended his payments over 6 years. I mentioned before that I would prefer 3 seasons of Justin Verlander over 3 seasons of Hill in a vacuum, but given the circumstances, I can't say that I'm disappointed in filling our #2 starter spot in the rotation without having to give up prospects to fill that need.

It's only a difference of $8 million overall to what was initially reported, but given that it's apparently a 3-year contract commitment, I'm more concerned with that 3rd year being for $16 million. Still, it's a relatively minor misgiving, especially since Hill would make about half of what Verlander will be making over the next 3 seasons. In this lackluster free-agent market for starting pitching, it'd be quite the big get for the Dodgers' front office to sign arguably the best pitcher in free agency. It would also leave us with something to show for from dealing away Montas, Holmes, and Cotton.

This would alleviate the urgency to engage in a bidding war with Atlanta and Washington over Chris Sale with the White Sox's reportedly exorbitant demands. This also gives us leverage in negotiations for Verlander should Detroit want to follow through on its rebuilding efforts in cutting payroll. Trading for Chris Archer or Sonny Gray isn't out of the question either, but likewise, both the Rays and A's have to be reasonable if they want to engage the Dodgers in trade talks. Obviously, there will be other suitors in pursuit of these pitchers, but the Dodgers no longer have to get caught up in the rat race, especially if teams are asking for Cody Bellinger and/or Julio Urias.

Hill isn't likely going to be close to being a workhorse for us, but I agree with the sentiment that I've seen that the Dodgers are best equipped to mitigate such risks given our pitching depth. I like the rotation of:

Kershaw
Hill
Urias
De Leon
Maeda

But I agree with your take that Brandon McCarthy has a legit shot of stepping in when Maeda or either of the young arms need a breather to limit their inning or otherwise. Kazmir as a closer is an interesting idea you present, but I'm more inclined to deal him to the Yankees or any of the other teams looking to add starters to their rotation. There should be no shortage of interested parties.

Ranma · Post #234 » by **Ranma** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 9:44 am

Neddy wrote:now we have a rich minor league system which we can pull resoruce for future trades, as well as grooming them for our own roster. Yaisel Sierra has been a bust so far but Diaz, Alvarez, and to certain exend, Omar Estevez. that last kid is still only 18, no? in fact, I feel like all the SS/2B prospects are all really trade assets starting from Gavin Lux, Branden Davis, Iman Abdulla, WIllie Calhoun, and Estevez. maybe one of them will turn out to the be the future 2nd base for the dodgers. but we will see.

I don't really have that much faith in our current crop of 2B prospects. Imani Abdullah is actually a pitcher for us. Both Calhoun and Estevez show good bats but are lacking in defense on the field. Likewise, with Micah Johnson. I like Brendon Davis too but I see him more likely to stick at 3B once he fully matures. I like our SS prospects more in Lux and Rony Brito, but I'm not really thrilled with either just yet. Both seem more advanced with the glove than with the bat but neither generate much excitement for me at the moment. Austin Barnes is our best 2B prospect in the system at the moment and he's counted on to be our backup C starting in 2017.

In fact, I think we're lacking in infield prospects relative to those that we're developing in the outfield. The middle infield seems to be of particular concern right now for me. I've said before that 2B prospects should be relatively easy to draft for in terms of finding safe prospects, so I'm more concerned about drafting young talent for SS and 3B.

Quake Griffin · Post #235 » by **Quake Griffin** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 2:24 pm

Ken RosenthalVerified account
‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: Melancon has multiple 4-yr, $60M+ offers: #SFGiants, #Nationals, perhaps one other. SF thought to be strongest, as @jcrasnick said.

Neddy · Post #236 » by **Neddy** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 4:00 pm

Quake Griffin wrote:Ken RosenthalVerified account
‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: Melancon has multiple 4-yr, $60M+ offers: #SFGiants, #Nationals, perhaps one other. SF thought to be strongest, as @jcrasnick said.

Mark Melancon will be 32 before the start of next season. this is nuts. I get this feeling that the giants team will not age well as they are signing bad contracts one after another. Shark already looks bad, Cueto's deal will come back to bite them, and Madbum's future deal will be an albatross at the end of it just like Cain's.

even if we end up signing Jansen back at the same rate, Kenley is still only 29. he won't turn 30 until the next season is almost over.

Neddy · Post #237 » by **Neddy** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 4:31 pm

Ranma wrote:
Neddy wrote:now we have a rich minor league system which we can pull resoruce for future trades, as well as grooming them for our own roster. Yaisel Sierra has been a bust so far but Diaz, Alvarez, and to certain exend, Omar Estevez. that last kid is still only 18, no? in fact, I feel like all the SS/2B prospects are all really trade assets starting from Gavin Lux, Branden Davis, Iman Abdulla, WIllie Calhoun, and Estevez. maybe one of them will turn out to the be the future 2nd base for the dodgers. but we will see.

I don't really have that much faith in our current crop of 2B prospects. Imani Abdullah is actually a pitcher for us. Both Calhoun and Estevez show good bats but are lacking in defense on the field. Likewise, with Micah Johnson. I like Brendon Davis too but I see him more likely to stick at 3B once he fully matures. I like our SS prospects more in Lux and Rony Brito, but I'm not really thrilled with either just yet. Both seem more advanced with the glove than with the bat but neither generate much excitement for me at the moment. Austin Barnes is our best 2B prospect in the system at the moment and he's counted on to be our backup C starting in 2017.

In fact, I think we're lacking in infield prospects relative to those that we're developing in the outfield. The middle infield seems to be of particular concern right now for me. I've said before that 2B prospects should be relatively easy to draft for in terms of finding safe prospects, so I'm more concerned about drafting young talent for SS and 3B.

my bad. reading too many scouting reports due to basball withdrawal symptoms. probably got mixed up in my mind in wee hours with Imani Willis, a former highschool standout SS/2B from Georgia. still not finding Trisitan Lanier's scouting reports and now that the young man's got a girl friend he seems more set on getting fireman training done and make a living right away. also saw that another local kid from around here by the name of Zac Rosscup got released from the Cubs. he may make a decent lefty specialist but now at his advancing age of 28 he is no longer a prospect although his rookie status is in tact. him and his wife Mindy should seriouslty consider going to overseas to extend his baseball career and earnings.

back to our own prospects, yeah I really like Ronny Brito. who his father is probably doesn't hurt him either. I still think Lux is a trade bait, and Brandon needs to hit with more power to be a corner infielder. I know he is just 19, I know the arguement of position based stat expectation is often over stated, but .333 career SLG doesn't inspire me a 3B in his future despite the 6-4 wiry frame with potential to fil in. Micah Johnson should be tried at CF to increase his utility appeal. would love to have him as a designated pinch runner. I would not mind having Barnes as our 2nd baseman in 2017 and pick up a backup catcher, Kurt Suzuki is available, and now suddenly Beef Wellington too. even some of the internal options should be considered who are not on the prospects radar, such as Jack Murphy who crushed the Aussie league a few years back who is in our AAA ballclub. the kid is already 28, won't be the worst thing for him to hold Grandal's jocs mostly as a relagated 3rd stringer while Austin starts on 2nd when Grandal plays and have Austin at C when Grandal is resting. Jack will essentially be an emergency catcher, but gives us the flexibility of having Barnes get everyday at bats and less bodily breakdown by having his 2/3 at bats from the 2nd base. Jack isn't a kid anymore and even in Aussie league, his production with the bat took a nose dive from 2013-14 years to the last season when he hit about .100 less. having him sit on the bench for 130 games and just catch a few here and there won't be the worst thing for young Jack as he has been catching none-stop, year round for nearly a decade now. he can use some rest to get his legs back under him. I like Kyle Farmer too. love the kid's ability to play 3rd, and being a college SS he can handle the glove. his issue is his lack of range out there.

anywho, yeah it is easier to fill the hole in the second both via draft and through FA, but right now we do have options at C we haven't had since Martin and Navarro were coming up together ahead of Ellis. good times.

Neddy · Post #238 » by **Neddy** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 4:50 pm

Ranma wrote:
Neddy wrote:**** I just read that the international free agent signnee under the age of 25 will have 5 million maximum salary upon signing under the new CBA.

there goes Otani sweepstake until the end of 2019.

Yeah, I noticed that too. At least it applies to everyone and not just us, but it'd be a bummer not to have Kershaw and Otani spearheading the Dodgers' rotation in their primes. By the time Otani heads over, Kershaw could be approaching his down years and Otani would add more stress to his arm and wear to his body with the Japanese pitching regimen and doing double duty as a position player. He'll still be young but it would take him at least a season to adjust to the MLB routine to shake the habits acquired during his time in NPB.

Also, I'm not sure if the new CBA actually affects MLB's agreement with NPB and the KBO as there still seems to be a lack of clarification on that but I assume it will include both Pacific-Rim leagues instead of just Latin American players.

However, there is something to keep in mind that nobody seems to be talking about. While Otani would certainly make less money coming over before he was 25 years old than he would as a true MLB free agent, he'd still make significantly more than what he is currently making in NPB. What's to keep him from signing for 2-3 years at about $6 million per season and then re-signing with his new MLB club (or signing with whomever else) for much, much more?

Of course, the team paying a $20-million posting fee would want more years of team control, but it'd still get Otani for about $16 million per season for 2 or 3 seasons while also likely having the inside track towards re-signing him. I wouldn't close the door on Otani coming over next winter just yet.

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well the Japanese pro baseball adjusts the player's salary according to their past season's performance. I believe young Otani is at around 1.5 million last year which is surely to rise significantly now that he won 2 spots in best 9 and the league MVP. he will probably get to close to 4 million range in 2017 and get to about 5-6 million range in his 24-25 year old level which is what MLB is offering. no reason for him to cost his club a few more seasons of glory if the money is a wash but he will have to be under a long term contract that will surely get him playing in US undervalued past the age of 25. I don't see it. Abe of the GIants made about 6 million a year, DaeHo Lee was offered 6 million a year before he came over to take the minimum from the Mariners, Randy Messanger was making around there before he retired with the Hanshin Tigers. I believe Otani may become the youngest to get to what is considered the serious top dollar for Japan, but he will get there before very long. and frankly, the Fighters owe it to him. they costed him some good money when they and NPB practically threatened the MLB to be banned from Japanese high school scouting if Otani went to the Dodgers straight out of high school rather than accept being the #1 overall pick with them. Otani is more beloved and glorified all over Japan than Darvish Yu ever was wearing the same uniform. I do think Yu being half persian has something to do with the proud homogenous nation of Japan, but performance wise, and age wise, and the fact that he is doing it from both on the mound and at the plate, the Nipppn Ham couldn't deal with negative publicity if they were percieved to be short changing the baseball demigod.

Ranma · Post #239 » by **Ranma** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 7:02 pm

Neddy wrote:well the Japanese pro baseball adjusts the player's salary according to their past season's performance. I believe young Otani is at around 1.5 million last year which is surely to rise significantly now that he won 2 spots in best 9 and the league MVP. he will probably get to close to 4 million range in 2017 and get to about 5-6 million range in his 24-25 year old level which is what MLB is offering. no reason for him to cost his club a few more seasons of glory if the money is a wash but he will have to be under a long term contract that will surely get him playing in US undervalued past the age of 25. I don't see it. Abe of the GIants made about 6 million a year, DaeHo Lee was offered 6 million a year before he came over to take the minimum from the Mariners, Randy Messanger was making around there before he retired with the Hanshin Tigers. I believe Otani may become the youngest to get to what is considered the serious top dollar for Japan, but he will get there before very long. and frankly, the Fighters owe it to him. they costed him some good money when they and NPB practically threatened the MLB to be banned from Japanese high school scouting if Otani went to the Dodgers straight out of high school rather than accept being the #1 overall pick with them. Otani is more beloved and glorified all over Japan than Darvish Yu ever was wearing the same uniform. I do think Yu being half persian has something to do with the proud homogenous nation of Japan, but performance wise, and age wise, and the fact that he is doing it from both on the mound and at the plate, the Nipppn Ham couldn't deal with negative publicity if they were percieved to be short changing the baseball demigod.

That's certainly a good point. If Shohei Otani still feels obligations to his country and team not to "shortchange" them, then there is less inclination to come over given the new limitations on his MLB salary before turning 25 years of age, especially since he'd be practically assured of a $200+ million contract upon coming directly over from NPB instead of risking such a massive deal on the off-chance that he would struggle early on in his MLB career.

Given his talk of constantly challenging himself, I was thinking that if he felt like he had nothing left to prove after representing Japan in the World Baseball Classic and having another banner season for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, his competitive juices would compel him to ask his team to post him in order to see what he can do at the highest level of competition. Then again, he seems quite content in continuing to play 2-way baseball, which is something unlikely to happen for him in North America.

Ranma · Post #240 » by **Ranma** » Sun Dec 4, 2016 7:16 pm

The current scuttlebutt has an increased likelihood of Justin Turner re-signing with the Dodgers, but we'll see how that plays out since there have been no reports of contract figures being passed around. I'm only slightly skeptical because it could be a ploy by Red Beard's agent to drum up urgency from other clubs.

Now there is a report that the Dodgers are the most aggressive suitor piquing the Twins' interest for Brian Dozier. I mentioned before about how reluctant I am to give up premium prospects for Dozier given his low batting average, high strikeouts, and suspicions of an outlier season with regards to his home runs. However, he's on an inexpensive deal albeit for 2 more seasons. If we can give up Verdugo, Calhoun, and a pitcher not named Urias, De Leon, Alvarez, Beuhler, Sheffield, Sborz, or even White then I wouldn't object too much to pulling the trigger. I'm not sure if I'd even include Wood in such a proposal either. I'm thinking Ryu, Stewart, or nothing else given that we would arguably being handing over our 3rd and 4th rated prospects in the system.

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