2015/16 Offseason: More active than Shakira's hips

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MattEddyBA/status/679722845660827650[/tweet]

[Neddy]

little dilemma guys.

every media outlet I read, from USA's own sites to Japanese ans even South Korean, Maeda is as good as signed as as dodger. this may not be a bad news at all for 2016. all Japanese/South Korean imports lasted just fine for their first season. mostly two full seasons before they break down. but in 2017, we have Urias and De Leon coming up, and we already have Clayton / Ryu / McCarthy / Wood under contracts or team's control. if we sign Maeda, and every nation's sites indicate the deal is for 5 years similar to what Leake got from the Cards, then we have 5 starters under contact or control. say McCarthy is an injury concern and an extra starter, that still have no room for one of the kids. I suppose having too many starters is never a bad thing and Wood and McCarthy could serve as trade commodities but signing Maeda for 2016 does give us some issues with blocking the young guns.

whats your take, guys?

[Quake Griffin]

little dilemma guys.

every media outlet I read, from USA's own sites to Japanese ans even South Korean, Maeda is as good as signed as as dodger. this may not be a bad news at all for 2016. all Japanese/South Korean imports lasted just fine for their first season. mostly two full seasons before they break down. but in 2017, we have Urias and De Leon coming up, and we already have Clayton / Ryu / McCarthy / Wood under contracts or team's control. if we sign Maeda, and every nation's sites indicate the deal is for 5 years similar to what Leake got from the Cards, then we have 5 starters under contact or control. say McCarthy is an injury concern and an extra starter, that still have no room for one of the kids. I suppose having too many starters is never a bad thing and Wood and McCarthy could serve as trade commodities but signing Maeda for 2016 does give us some issues with blocking the young guns.

whats your take, guys?

Always thought we were going to have a surplus of starters and that an Alex Wood would be trade bait….he has 4 years of team control left, we have 2 guys we want to bring up. It just makes too much sense.

Where are you getting the Mike Leake com parables from?
That's 5/$80 million + posting fee????
Is Maeda good enough for that kind of contract + posting fee?

[Ranma]

It's really not surprising that the Dodgers are the team Kenta Maeda will sign with if the reports are true. We're really the only big-market ballclub left that has been identified as needing starting pitching that hasn't spent money on a free-agent pitcher yet and I heard he prefers to pitch on the West Coast given the convenience of booking flights back to and returning from Japan. Plus, I thought I read somewhere that the Dodgers were his preferred, if not favorite, team from the start. The Giants, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals all filled their rotation with big-money signings. The Padres are reportedly not even going to make a bid. It was only a matter of how serious the Dodgers' front office was truly interested in pursuing him.

I've heard best-case comparisons for Maeda to be Mike Mussina or Hiroki Kuroda, but nobody really expects him to have the success of either of those two. I've also seen Freddy Garcia, Jered Weaver, and Roy Oswalt used as comps in terms of style, but lately he's been compared to Aaron Nola and Mike Leake. Even with the question of his acclimatization to the rigors of a major-league pitching schedule and workload, I think he's a better gamble than committing to Leake.

Having said that, I have not been that enthused about pursuing him since I view him as more of a #4 or #5 in our starting rotation, especially to start off his MLB career. I've noted that we already have plenty of capable in-house candidates for either of those roles. However, in light of losing out on Iwakuma, it makes sense to get Maeda as another stopgap option, which is how I view him. Question marks with our rotation may push him up to either the #2 or #3 starter, but I would think that to be an unwise course of action.

The $20 million posting fee will supposedly not count towards the luxury tax calculations of our payroll budget, but I would have to think that money would count towards negotiating Maeda's contract. Using Leake's 5-year, $80 million deal with a $16 million AAV as a base to work from, I'd offer him a deal with an $8 million AAV. Since Neddy is citing reports of 5 years as the offer, which doesn't seem unreasonable even though I'd personally prefer a shorter guaranteed term, that'd make the offer $40 million over 5 years. Hopefully, we can incorporate Neddy's previous suggestion of a team and player option, respectively, for the last two years of the deal. As I stated before, my preference would be for the team option on the 4th year and a player option for the 5th year if it had to come down to that.

Although I think Maeda has a good likelihood of outperforming Leake, health permitting, Leake is an established and proven major leaguer while Maeda is not. Given that and the lack of visible suitors, I don't see Maeda as having much leverage, so he should get a deal that is less than Leake's. My proposed contract offer to Maeda for $40 million + the $20 million posting fee to his Japanese ballclub still comes out to $20 million less overall than Leake's $80 million deal. Maeda is probably worth more along the lines of a $10 million AAV or $12 million AAV contract but I think we can get him for less. I read somewhere else, besides Neddy also mentioning it, that his Hiroshima Toyo Carp team is one of the poorest in NPB and that Maeda himself only made about $2.4 million last season...or maybe that was Shohei Otani's salary. I'm sure the part about the Carp being poor is right, though, but in any case, Maeda would be making significantly more money no matter what the Dodgers offer him even if you factor in the differences in the cost of living in the form of U.S. taxes and the perks he received in Japan.

With regard to his addition to our crowded rotation in the future, I don't really see his addition as exacerbating the problem since we'd have to deal with such a situation, anyway, if everyone is healthy and the young phenoms develop as projected. Brett Anderson will most certainly go into free agency next off-season since he's anticipated to be among the top 3 available pitchers in that market environment. Both McCarthy and Ryu have to prove that they can pitch well and for sustained length coming off injuries. If they do, they'd make great options for the latter half of the starting rotation or can serve as valuable trade bait to the plenty of teams desperate for quality pitching. Wood is a nice cost-controlled option with upside to have now, but his funky delivery presents long-term health concerns for me and I see him as more valuable as an eventual trade asset. Bolsinger, Lee, Frias, and Wieland may be near ready as starting options, but none of them are high priorities.

Outside of Kershaw, there wouldn't be anyone seen as a lock for having ownership of a spot in the starting rotation, so if Urias, DeLeon, and/or Montas win spots or we trade for someone, it shouldn't be a hard decision to shuffle players among the aforementioned group for the remaining spots or trade them for prospects or players to fill other holes on the big-league roster. That would also include Maeda. The only slight concern I would have is with trading away free agents who've signed with us such as McCarthy, Ryu, and Maeda from a reputation perspective but it'd be a negligible matter.

[Ranma]

It sounds like there isn't an internal consensus among the Dodgers' scouts and front office staff with regards to Kenta Maeda, which isn't surprising given his frail build and conditioning under the professional Japanese pitching routine. However, it does seem to confirm that the Dodgers won't offer him a big contract similar to Leake's.

I'm also glad that the team may have moved on from Odorizzi even if I do like him as a back-end rotation option. In spite of that, I don't think he's worth the price teams are asking for starting pitching. I'm not going to shed a tear if we miss out on either Maeda or Odorizzi despite the fact that I like them better than most other available options.

Also, I recently read elsewhere that the Mariners have expressed interest in Maeda even after re-signing Iwakuma.

idnt-h8urteam via DodgersDigest.com comments

Yeah, Dodgers are no longer talking to Tampa about Odorizzi. Instead, they are considering going after Maeda.

Not every FO staff/scouts believe he can stick.

LiveFyre Profile Activity Stream

[Quake Griffin]

More hype around a player that's not coming.

Color me shocked.

[Quake Griffin]

Coming into ST in shape? Ready to prove the doubters wrong?


[instagram]https://instagram.com/p/_uGu7bjYRU/[/instagram]
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[Neddy]

little dilemma guys.

every media outlet I read, from USA's own sites to Japanese ans even South Korean, Maeda is as good as signed as as dodger. this may not be a bad news at all for 2016. all Japanese/South Korean imports lasted just fine for their first season. mostly two full seasons before they break down. but in 2017, we have Urias and De Leon coming up, and we already have Clayton / Ryu / McCarthy / Wood under contracts or team's control. if we sign Maeda, and every nation's sites indicate the deal is for 5 years similar to what Leake got from the Cards, then we have 5 starters under contact or control. say McCarthy is an injury concern and an extra starter, that still have no room for one of the kids. I suppose having too many starters is never a bad thing and Wood and McCarthy could serve as trade commodities but signing Maeda for 2016 does give us some issues with blocking the young guns.

whats your take, guys?

Always thought we were going to have a surplus of starters and that an Alex Wood would be trade bait….he has 4 years of team control left, we have 2 guys we want to bring up. It just makes too much sense.

Where are you getting the Mike Leake com parables from?
That's 5/$80 million + posting fee????
Is Maeda good enough for that kind of contract + posting fee?

Japanese media. Xports, Ba-e-su-bo-ru-channel, (god translation just does not work right) and Sponich Annex.
also South Korean media of NaverSports, SportsSeoul, and YunHop News.

chances are the Japanese Media are talking to someone who might know the player or his agent and in typical fashion, using a ton of imagination to right opinions turned into news, then Koreans picking up the Japanese articles and translate the supposed news. but they have been right so far about Maeda being interested in west coast teams before Mariners and dodgers were reported to have interest, then calling Dodgers the team he wants to sign with, due to our rich history of having past Japanese greats succed here before the meeting was announceed. so i think there are at least some credible reports regarding their boarderline tabloid publications.

most importantly, remember that Maeda was a teammate of Kuroda last season as Hiroki wanted to finish his career for his native fans in front of the Hiroshima Carps' crowd. in fact the Carps were comfortable posting Maeda because Kuroda gave the team assurance that he can go for another season at least, guaranteeing a top of the rotation pitching and of course the TV and ticket sales from having Kuroda's farewell tour. fresh coming off of another effective season with the Yankees just a seaon prior for Kuroda, Maeda pitched superiorly to Kuroda last season. something to think about too.

[Neddy]

hey the Japan Series MVP Dae Ho Lee is still without a deal and commited to making it to US. he is now in his 30's but still one of the more fearsome hitters of NPB. he is right handed and plays primarily 1B, DH, and some 3B. he is a free agent and does not requrie any posting fee. he is not looking for a big time payday but rather something close to what he got paid in Japan and a chance to prove his game at the highest level of baseball before his career is over.

I think we may have the best power/contact pinch hitter with utility corner infielder who can DH against AL games for less than Alex Guerrero's contract. time to package Alex to any deal that may bring us a quality pitcher whether it's for the starting rotation or the pen, and let the Asian Olmedo Saenz reign in.

[Neddy]

cheap quality players from Asia we can get our hands on right now

1) Maeda - most expensive as well, potential Kaz Ishii or Kuroda. could turn out to be Darvish or Irabu too.
2) Oh - probably the most sure thing. will make an OK closer, probably a great setup man
3) D H Lee - former multiple triple crown winning hitter in KBO, current Japan Series MVP. have both power and contact.
4) Kishi - relatively unknown to US, he is one of the top relievers hurling from Seibu Lions. he is a free agent, meaning no posting fee.

[Quake Griffin]

A lot of projections still have us a top the division.

http://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-news-espn-lists-nl-west-favorites/2015/12/26/
Schoenfield views the team pretty much in the same way I do.

Cliffs:
- Kershaw is still Kershaw
- We're swapping Rollins for Seager
- Puig's working hard this offseason
- The bullpen's better than their ERA reflected last year.


still want to see some moves made.
still want to see Ethier out of here.

[Neddy]

according to the Japanese Media, as Maeda entered the dodger stadum, our FO flashed Maeda in a dodger uni with his #15 jersey photoshopped on the main scoreboard with words saying "welcome Maeda" but left without a contract.

I get a gut feeling that we want to make a splash move to announce for the angry public but not willing to break a bank for him thus disappointing Maeda's camp. I say whatever either way. would be nice to have him but 2016 is just one year. I am so looking forward to having Urias and De Leon coming up in 2017 and by then we will have too many pitchers to choose from, whomerver we grab this year will only be a band-aid for this one season IMO.

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/HardballTalk/status/680930100406177792[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/elianherrera_3/status/680876953252028421[/tweet]

[Neddy]

Elian Herrera... isn't this the kid who played all 3 outfields and every infield position except first? I remember him playing average at best defense but not too terribly at any position while being one of those bats that couldn't get on base unless he got a hit.
when it says he'd got a minor league deal, I'm sure it also implies he has a guaranteed invitation to the spring training. it would be fun to check him out in March down in Arizona!

[Ranma]

Yeah, that's him alright. I know the front office likes versatility, but we shouldn't be wasting roster spots on guys like this. I guess there's no harm in taking a look during Spring Training.

We already have Alex Guerrero wasting space. Guerrero, by the way, should be dealt away ASAP. I know he has an out clause in his contract that allows him to be a free agent after the season he is traded, but he'd lose at least $5 million in the final year of his deal for 2017, which is the same salary he'll get for 2016. He also has an additional $2.5 million in each of the remaining two seasons as part of his signing bonus. On top of that, he has a $1 million bonus for each season he reaches at least 500 plate appearances per year.

At this point, I'd dare him to opt out of his deal if I'm a rival club trading for him. I'm a little curious if he'd still get his signing bonus for the remaining year if he opts out, but I suspect he would because the opt-out was allowed for in the contract. A more pressing question is whether any team would even be interested in trading for him without us having to eat his salary.

Unless he's making significant progress with his defense in winter ball, I'd rather dump him and open up the roster spot for someone like Austin Barnes. Even Micah Johnson brings more to the table than Guerrero in that he would at least be an asset as a pinch runner. I'd be willing to eat the remaining $5 million in signing bonus money, but would try to avoid paying the rest of his salary depending on what type of prospects we'd be getting back.

[Neddy]

for a team in AL hungry for a right handed batter, I think the Mariners could be a good trade partner to dump Alex Guerrero.
their outfield currently is entirely left handed between Aoki-Martin-Seth with infield of Seager - Marte - Cano - Lind featuring only 1 true right hander. Alex can become a platoon player for the LF with Aoki or have Nelson Cruz play some RF time to time to make room for Alex at DH. if we can get one of their bullpen arms for Alex, that would be a good deal imo.

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/681585400867983360[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/BryanHoch/status/681588340571910144[/tweet]
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[tweet]https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/681598485515337728[/tweet]

[Ranma]

You guys know how reluctant I've been to give up a first-rounder to sign free agents, but that's because free agents are typically on the wrong side of 30 with short-term benefits and long-term pain in the form of a big contract commitment. However, Justin Upton could be the exception to the rule.

He's only 28 and the marketplace might allow for signing him to a reasonable deal. Even if we were to sign him on a 1-year contract, we'd get a replacement for our lost first-rounder albeit in a lower selection slot but in a likely deeper draft class.

While it's not the ideal scenario of maximizing our foray into free agency by signing both Jason Heyward and Jordan Zimmermann to reasonable deals this winter, I'd be fine with signing either Upton or Alex Gordon for our LF spot. However, I'm not really pushing for this to happen as we still need to deal away Ethier and/or Crawford and have more pressing matters to be concerned about.

Also, with regard to Gordon, he's obviously older, so if we can get him for 3 or 4 years at a reasonable rate, then I'd be for it but I doubt he'll be an option since the Royals and White Sox are interested in him; the Giants were previously also linked to Gordon so maybe they shouldn't be counted out despite the amount of money they've already spent on pitching.

Still, like the front office has said, things don't typically line up for moves to be sequentially done in order of priority, so if we have plans in place to offload Ethier and Crawford, there may be an opportunity for us to get either Gordon or Upton.

In any case, the Dodgers are in a good position as the big-money ballclub who can sit back and wait for opportunities to come to us in a more depressed market as long as we pounce on the right deals.

[Quake Griffin]

There's tons of positives to Upton and the fact that he looks like the market will force him into something reasonable makes me want HIM specifically….


He picked up his defense in LF last year for the Padres. Even then, he's good enough to where I could live with below average defense in LF from him.

Career OBP of .352
Posted a .336 OBP last year.
Steamer has him projected for a .346 OBP this year.

Hit 26 Homers last year. 15 of them went out of Petco.
26 doubles last year as well.
BsR and UBR (base running stats by fangraphs) all seem to be on the plus side of things.


Down side?
Who knows if he can keep that up defensively?
Last three years he's had K% of 25%, 27%, and 26%. I've rounded those percentages up. On balance, Joc Pederson had a K% last year of 29% and the Steamer has him projected to come back down to the mid 20s.

Are we ready to sign up for that many Ks?


Upside?
Gets on base.
RH Power bat.
Runs the bases.
May have turned the corner defensively.
Consistently been between a 3-4 war player. It's worth it to bring in a guy of that value if the market is only bearing reasonable numbers we could meet.


The Steamer has Upton projected to be a 3.0 WAR player next year and Yoenis Cespedes to be a 3.1 WAR player next year. I'd bet my bottom dollar Upton will be a steal compared to what Cespedes gets.

[Quake Griffin]

oh and that also depends on what they think of Trayce Thompson.
Does the FO view him as a 4th OF like others or do they think he's an every day player?


Whatever the case, signing Upton would give other teams the leverage in an Ethier deal.
But sheesh…not if I'm the GM. I just want him outta here….I don't need your top w/e prospect back.

damn.