the 2014 OffSeason Thread.

[Quake Griffin]

"He works his butt off. He had a great year. His next step is just to get comfortable in the big leagues and make adjustments to repeat himself and do the same thing in the big leagues," White said. "He's terrific in the outfield. He's not a Billy Hamilton runner, but my gosh, he is a terrific defensive outfielder."

Logan White on Joc.


I can't sign off on any package including Joc, Seager or Urias. He's the best OF in our system and if we lose him, we can't just find another good OF via FA or trade. I believe this kid is going to be good.

anything except those 3 and i'll probably make it work as long as I don't have to take back an extra crappy contract.

[Neddy]

"He works his butt off. He had a great year. His next step is just to get comfortable in the big leagues and make adjustments to repeat himself and do the same thing in the big leagues," White said. "He's terrific in the outfield. He's not a Billy Hamilton runner, but my gosh, he is a terrific defensive outfielder."

Logan White on Joc.


I can't sign off on any package including Joc, Seager or Urias. He's the best OF in our system and if we lose him, we can't just find another good OF via FA or trade. I believe this kid is going to be good.

anything except those 3 and i'll probably make it work as long as I don't have to take back an extra crappy contract.

i used to think the same way and i still do for the other two, but when i think of a way to dump Ethier AND Crawford i come right back down to earth in a couple of days how improbable that is. only way i see dumping them is to pay more than a half of craw ford's deal and at least a half of ether's deal and get absolutely nothing. if we take on less than a half of their deals or try to weasel our way into no future payments on their deals, we will end up with equally bad contracts. and just as useless... although i still like the idea of CC Sabathia as he has only two years left then a 5 mil buyout. I see the only way to get something in value what can help us win, which is more important imo, is to include a top prize prospect for something else that's good.

but hey this is the reason why Guggenheim paid Andrew Freidman 35 million dollars to do the job. hopefully he finds ways to make things happen without costing us prospects or hefty chunk of deadweights' salaries.

[Neddy]

well here are the objectives for Andrew this off season.

1. strong bullpen
2. reliable 4th starter
3. consolidate the outfield.

now here are the pieces we have that needs to be moved ; Crawford and his 21 mil per, Ethier and his 17 per, Brian WIlson and his 10, Brandon League and his 12 is it?

then here is the scenario IF we move them.

Puig - Joc - Kemp outfield with SVS as the fourth.

Jensen - Frias - Baez - Paco - Elbert - Domingquez - Withrow

they both look good, yeah? but here is the problem IF we fail to move them.

Crawford - Puig - Kemp - Ethier - SVS and Joc in AAA.

Jensen - Wilson - League - Frias - Paco - Elbert - Baez and Dominguez and Withrow would have to be in AAA or send someone else down for them to move up.

so without a deal we accomplish nothing. those are 21 per for 4 more years, 17 mil per for 3 more years i think, then 10 ands 12 per of expiring. baseball doesn't have a hard cap so i don't see how and why any team out there would even want to touch Brian Wilson so i think we are stuck there. Brandon League showed some life earlier and i can see him getting dealt away if we pay majority of his contract and say a team like pittsburg or tampa pickup only a million... which is still an atrocious deal.
the other two, what i mentioned earlier would be the probability a and those moves does not meet the company mandated objective #4...

so, Objective #4 ; which is to lower the payroll down to around 180-ish per year.

its not possible to add more salaries through FAs and pay our deadweights to play somewhere else and still lower the salary. it just won't work. this is where i run into a road block. if we want to lower our payroll, we must get rid of our deadweight players contracts entirely. in order to entice that, we would have to give up something. if we keep Joc, then is it Seager? do we then go out and sign Panda when the Giants would have the tag on him? he is not worth losing a first rounder. then Urias? another Pedro lost in a bad trade? Joc is going to be a very good player someday, but I also think Joc can facilitate a deal where we get rid of one maybe even two out of those four bad deals. it is still a poison pill but it maybe the way out too. i dunno.

this is my dilemma.

[Ranma]

I'm not a fan of packaging quality prospects to unload bad contracts as that would be carrying on Colletti's approach. Granted, it's not Friedman's fault that he's saddled with Colletti's undesirable albatross, but unloading such contracts off the team payroll would go a ways towards alleviating luxury tax penalties and maybe even resetting the consecutive-years-of-offense counter.

I'm not a tax expert, but theoretically speaking, the Dodgers would benefit even if they simply paid other teams to take on half the money left on the contracts of Andre Ethier (3 years left plus 4th-year buyout), Brian Wilson (1 year left), and Brandon League (1 year left) totaling $74 million. While it would lose $37 million in actual money paid out, the organization could save themselves 30% in escalated tax penalties for 2015 after paying $11.4 million (17.5%) in penalties for 2014 as first-time offenders. It would also take the Dodgers out of danger of paying 40% in luxury tax penalties for 2016 and 50% for consecutive years thereafter. Unloading Alexander Guerrero's 3-year, $21.5 million contract for minimal return to a team willing to take a flyer on him, even if he opts out after next season, would save the Dodgers $6.5 million for 2015.

Having talented and inexpensive prospects like Joc Pederson and Chris Withrow take over roster spots would provide tremendous value for the team even as we sign a bullpen arm like Andrew Miller to a League-like deal. Pederson is considered the best CF option defensively for the Dodgers even if he has to go through growing pains offensively. Withrow has shown himself effective as a power arm out of the bullpen provided that he remains healthy and continues to develop his control.

The best I can hope for is for Friedman to dump Ethier while paying half his contract in return for under-the-radar prospects from another organization he and Byrnes identify as possible unpolished gems. I would also consider giving up some low-level prospects to unload the entire contracts of Wilson and League, but since they each only have one season left, I wouldn't give up much of anything.

[Neddy]

great post! i did not know that once a player is traded to another team physically, even if you are paying that players salary, it does not count towards the payroll and lux tax threshold.

then its a win win as we get to open roster spots and Guggenheim can avoid lux tax which is I am sure 100% motivation behind wanting to lower the payroll. we might even be able to sign a top flight free agent or two if we can dump most of our undesirable contracts among whom are piss poorly underperforming.

if this is true, it is a great news and the likelihood of needing a prospect to dump a salary would not be necessary. its time for Andrew to dump contracts while paying half of everything. we are better off going addition by subtraction cliche route then.

thanks, Ranma!

[Ranma]

i did not know that once a player is traded to another team physically, even if you are paying that players salary, it does not count towards the payroll and lux tax threshold.

Hold on, Neddy.

I think you get where I'm coming from but I want to note that I'm not a salary cap expert so I don't mean to get your hopes up. At first, I was hopeful that we could, in essence, pay a team to take on our bad contracts without being liable (luxury-tax-wise) for 100% of what's left of their deal. For instance and strictly as an example, paying let's say the Tampa Bay Rays $56 million to take on the entirety of Ethier's contract commitment through 2018 (per Cot's Baseball Contracts) where we'd basically still be paying him to play but only as a Ray instead of a Dodger. Ideally for us, Ethier's salary cap hit (and luxury tax implications) would then fall under Tampa Bay's obligations with the Dodgers footing the bill, however, I don't believe MLB operates this way.

I don't believe it's like the NBA where a player's cap hit could be moved from one team to another team just by him being on his new team's roster. Or even the NHL, where the player's cap hit could be subtracted simply by sending him down to the minors. Again, I want to re-iterate my layman's understanding of MLB's salary cap in that I believe whatever money we pay for a team to take on another player's salary counts towards our salary cap even if that player plays for another team.

If that is the case, the aforementioned Ethier scenario wouldn't do us any good since we'd still be paying his entire salary just to play in a different uniform with the tax hit still applying to our salary cap obligations.

My proposal of eating half the salary would mean that we would lessen the salary cap hit by only half--assuming a team is willing to take on Ethier at half the price--which I felt was good enough to play our highly-touted prospects to fill the void and lessen the need to pay higher salaries for replacements.

I'm not sure I'm explaining my premise clearly enough, but basically, I'm saying that I'm okay with eating a significant portion of players' salaries in order to lower their salary cap hit to avoid the luxury tax penalties as long as we have capable prospects to fill in the void. In my proposal, I still hold onto Crawford since Pederson's bat is not yet established and Crawford looks to play well enough where paying another team to play him seems unpalatable at this point.

If you know a good salary cap resource to refer me to, I'm all ears. Like I said, I'm not that well-versed in baseball's salary cap structure, so take my proposal with a grain of salt.

[Ranma]

Apparently, dumping Ethier even at half-price is woefully wishful thinking on my part.

Mike Petriello, Dodgers Digest (10/26/14)

There’s a question in the mailbag — I swear we’ll do another soon — about whether the Dodgers should try to do a ‘bad contract swap’ of Andre Ethier for Baltimore’s Ubaldo Jimenez, who disappointed in the first year of his 4/$50m contract, putting up a 4.81 ERA/4.67 FIP and being left off the ALCS roster. (Though I can’t find the link at the moment, he reportedly declined to stay with the team during the ALCS, choosing instead to simply go home.) Jimenez has occasionally been one of the best pitchers in baseball, but twice in the last three seasons, he’s been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. On the surface, maybe that makes sense.

And yet, the answer seems easy: Baltimore wouldn’t even consider it, because Ethier was that bad this year, and they already have a better Ethier-esque player in Nick Markakis...

One way or another, a Dodger outfielder is moving. Maybe it’s Van Slyke, though that wouldn’t really free up much room. Maybe it’s Puig in some kind of massive deal, though that seems unlikely. Kemp’s second-half surge probably keeps him in the heart of the lineup. Carl Crawford could go, though he’s only mildly more valuable than Ethier is. Most likely, Ethier is going in a deal that sees the Dodgers A) eat 90% of his contract B) take on someone else’s problem or C) both.

Can the Dodgers Even Sell Low on Andre Ethier?


Keith Law, ESPN SportsNation (10/23/14)

Jason [via mobile]
Chances the Dodgers could trade Ethier. Less than 1%?

Klaw (1:50 PM)
Have to give him away and pay some freight.
...

Jon (Minnesota)
Ethier for Nolasco, who says no?

Klaw (1:52 PM)
Twins.

Daniel (Bloomington)
Edwin Jackson for Andre Ethier in a bad contract swap? cubs need veteran outfield help

Klaw (1:54 PM)
No, they don't. The Cubs need Ethier like the world needs another folk singer.

Chat with Keith Law

[Neddy]

with salary eating and cap space uncertain again, i am going to say a heretical proposition.

lets move SVS to 1B and trade Gonzo in a package that will move at least one more deadweight contract in their entirety. gonzo and say, Kemp to Seattle as they are desperately looking for a cleanup hitter behind Cano and a right handed corner outfielder. don't think they have the kind of budget to eat that much (42 million per year added to their payroll) but they are only at around 97 as of this moment. this will also bring us some substantial and useful prospects in return.

this one deal will immediately relieve the financial strains the guggenheim got themselves into by failing the TV rebroadcasting deal with TimeWarner and i believe there will be a substantial decrease in TV revenue next year.
of course, this is only a proposal that eating majority of money to move guys like Ethier doesn't get them off the tax threshold.

this move seems crazy, but Gonzo's HR power will easily be replaced by SVS. he led the team in SLG% and had fewest at bats per home run. Scott is a good athlete, and has Paul Konerko type of potential, and most importantly, he is cheap and still under team's control.

moving Kemp takes out one defensive reliability in the outfield while making a room for Joc finally, and move Puig back to RF where his arm will shine.

after this deal, of course we will be gathering some of their mid to high tier prospects from rich mariner's farm, but the key here is to lower the payroll substantially enough to be under 190 mil in total salary. after losing 42 off the books we can then sign some free agents with that money and find other ways to dump smaller but cost inefficient contracts. I would consider even packaging Uribe with one of the expiring garbage bullpen arms we have as a good defensive hot corner who can swing the bat are always an important piece to any contending teams. Wilson is garbage but some may bite given in a package with Uribe, to take on League's 7.5 mil.

now Gonzo's 21, Kemp's 21, Uribe's 6.5, league's 7.5, then buyout Billinglsey's 14 minus 3 for B/O, that is 67 million subtracted from the payroll. or if Buyout cost doesn't count against the cap, then it's a whopping 70 million dollar relief in just two deals and no future payment to any of these players.

now we will only have Crawford / Ethier / Guerrero / WIlson /Haren as the bad contracts and two latter ones will expire after next season.

then we have

Crawford - Joc - Puig outfield
Turner - Erisbel - Dee - SVS infield

Ethier and Guerrero becomes the most expensive pinch hitting tandem. hitting is going to suffer but not as drastically as you might think. I also think Guerrero could be relatively easy to move but Uribe would give us a chance to dump League. once Uribe/League deal is done, Guerrero should also be looked at to be dumped elsewhere but not before, not to over supply the market beforehand. also, make attempt to convert him into 3B.

L Dee --- possible 100 SBs next year if he can get on base?
L Carl ---- back to his natural spot in batting order, although we will suffer top two guys who lack OBP
R Puig --- time to be the star
R SVS ---- highest SLG%, fewest at bats per HR. he will hit 35 given a full season.
L Joc ----- okay, if Logan White says this kid can hit, lets have him prove it. in time 2 hole is his to take
R Turner- he was already playing a ton of games for often injured Uribe anyway
-- catcher - hope its not AJ.
R Erisbel -- just hit .240.

but the defense? Joc - Erisbel - Dee up the middle, Quake!

sign one of James Shields / Jon Lester / Max Scherzer with the money we have left over at this point and still be under 190.

next year's rotation

Kershaw
Greinke
Shields / Lester / Scherzer
Ryu
Haren

now with an open spot with league gone

Jensen
Frias
Baez
Paco / Elbert
WIthrow / Dominguez
a possible return from one of the two trades?
and
WIlson as the lone deadweight in the pen.

it will be all pitching and defense, like what a real dodger baseball should be.

again, this entire scenario is hinged on what exactly the collective bargaining agreement says about traded players with salaries being paid by the former team. as far as I know we are still paying Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre too.
Manny's money I think is finally paid and over.

one last rationale, is that I don't think Ethier / Wilson / Crawford are tradable unless we eat 90% of their salaries and if that doesn't waive them off against our cap, then what's the point?

okay boys, let the beatings begin.

[Neddy]

oh god i am dying of agony of watching this game 5... the last thing i wish to see is the gnats winning another one..... please KC do something here.

[Quake Griffin]

oh god i am dying of agony of watching this game 5... the last thing i wish to see is the gnats winning another one..... please KC do something here.

I got over it when I watched Ishikawa hit the walk off on the Cardinals.

what the Giants do in the even years defies ALL logic....it's no longer a problem of mine. I can go over how improbable this run is, but it doesnt matter. It's truly magic and I just think Brian Sabean made a deal with the devil at the end of the day (I'm half way kidding but semi-srs).

these aren't the greatest teams ever. the best lineups ever. We're not watching the 1927 or 1998 Yankees.

Just ride it out and hopefully Friedman will beat this team over the long haul with more division titles, more WS wins and more baseball significance overall when it comes to our victories and the actors in our victories.


remember. Boston fans had to survive 1996-2000.

[Kilroy]

I've never really gotten too much into rivalries and what not... Although I do have a deep seeded hatred for the Celtics, Blazers and Nuggets...
But the Giants are now on the List... Mostly because I can not stand their fans.

Did I mention that Regime guy from the GB's Fantasy football team is kicking the crap out of mine this week as well?

[Neddy]

I've never really gotten too much into rivalries and what not... Although I do have a deep seeded hatred for the Celtics, Blazers and Nuggets...
But the Giants are now on the List... Mostly because I can not stand their fans.

Did I mention that Regime guy from the GB's Fantasy football team is kicking the crap out of mine this week as well?

dude you are a laker fan first and a dodger fan second if you feel that the celts and the blazers come before the Gnats as the most hated team in all sports.


I may dislike your lakers but I am first and foremost a dodger fan first. **** **** **** and i say **** the gnats. i don't care about any other rivalry unless i say **** the gnats first.

[Neddy]

did i say f the gnats? yeah f the gnats. i hate everything about them. i hate manhattan, I hate Willy Mays, I hate Juan Marichal, I hate Berry Bonds, I hate Mitch Williams, I hate Rob Nen, I hate everybody else that came after, and yeah, i hate bruce bochy. did i say I hate the Gnats? I hate Brian Sabean. I hate Ned Colletti too for coming from that organization.

I suspect PED as it seems every washed up vets that goes to the Gnats suddenly becomes a stud. **** **** **** them and **** them all.

long live Tommy Lasorda and the dodger blue bleeding... everyone in the blue nation.

[Kilroy]

I've been a Dodger fan longer than a Laker fan... I played both sports but for most of the time I've been a fan the Giants were essentially irrelevant... So I never really got the rivalry. And for much of the time the Giants have been in contention, the Dodgers have been at best, deeply flawed and hard to follow past mid season... Remember all those years of winning starts and woeful finishes?

To me, the rivalry really only is a thing for the past 2 or 3 seasons... Beyond that it's just us hating them because they were a lot better than us. You have to be similarly talented/successful for a true rivalry.
This year they snuck around us, so I'm not really that upset about it on a baseball level, just the fans are unbearable.

[Quake Griffin]

I've been a Dodger fan longer than a Laker fan... I played both sports but for most of the time I've been a fan the Giants were essentially irrelevant... So I never really got the rivalry. And for much of the time the Giants have been in contention, the Dodgers have been at best, deeply flawed and hard to follow past mid season... Remember all those years of winning starts and woeful finishes?

To me, the rivalry really only is a thing for the past 2 or 3 seasons... Beyond that it's just us hating them because they were a lot better than us. You have to be similarly talented/successful for a true rivalry.
This year they snuck around us, so I'm not really that upset about it on a baseball level, just the fans are unbearable.

just want to add that I view this COMPLETELY the opposite way. I always view Northern Cal fans as being slightly jealous of LA fans. I think what is a "little" inferiority about Nor Cal bleeds over into their sports.

Warriors and Kings fans HATE the Lakers. I mean, they truly hate the Lakers. I do not know one Laker fan that harbors the same resentment of those two teams. In fact, most of my Laker fan friends pulled for the Warriors last year because they wanted to watch me suffer (too bad).

Same with the Giants....they had been here 50 some odd years before they won.
2002 they choked away the WS so it wasn't much to brag about.
2004 Steve Finley walked off the division for us on those Giants
Then they were horrible until 2010 and in that time we had made the playoffs 3 times, winning the division twice.

I'm not as old as you and Neddy....but I've never "hated" that team because they were better.


P.S.
I went to watch the Dodgers clinch the wild card in 2006 at AT&T. A group of us Dodger fans convened outside the park to cheer about them clinching. A group of SF fans walked over to us initiated a confrontation and it came to fist. My buddy and I ran because the cops came (we were not fighting, just caught up in the mess) and got on the muni home. Just saying...for me and obviously for them, the rivalry has been a thing....for a long while.

[Kilroy]

That's actually what I meant... I don't really think there has been much of a rivalry from our end... Of course the bay area fans hate So Cal teams Lakers, Dodgers and Kings chief among them...
I was just saying that if there was a 'rivalry' on our end, it would have to be from the years we sucked and the Giants were good. Otherwise, it's just baseball...
Frankly... From a baseball perspective, I hate the Cards much worse... That team seems to really enjoy kicking our asses.

[Quake Griffin]

lol, nah....i, begrudgingly, pulled for the Cards to handle business.


Hey Ned.
looks like we just lost Logan White....and we lost DeJon Watson earlier.
Score another point for Guggenheim.

[Quake Griffin]

Guggenheim startin to kind of work my nerves now.

Keep Don.
Keep Ned.
lose DeJon Watson
lose Logan White.

[Neddy]

Hey Ned.
looks like we just lost Logan White.....

OH GOD THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!!

[Neddy]

Guggenheim startin to kind of work my nerves now.

Keep Don.
Keep Ned.
lose DeJon Watson
lose Logan White.

look for the Madres suddenly be great in about 5 to 6 years. he will have some great drafts with them. some say Logan White had spotty success in draft after that great year when he picked up guys like Billingsley, Kemp, Russell Martin and AJ Ellis in the same draft, but since then frank McDuck cut back significantly on scouting including eliminating the entire international scouting. the Madres made out like bandits on our expense....

it was Logan White who flew out to see Puig work out, and signed him. it was not Logan but some of Ned's guys that thought Guerrero and Erisbel were can't miss prospects.

Andrew Friedman better have some great scouting director hires...