Prospects and trade discussion

[Quake Griffin]

it's only been two days since the Dodgers got eliminated but I am already having a serious case of baseball withdrawal symptoms.

been looking up our prospects and who are likely to make it and who are most likely trade chips, and as of now, our position prospects seem filled with future LFers.

thanks to Quake pointing out to me, I looked up WIllie Calhoun's scouting report beyond his stat lines. his defense in deed is in question to stick as a middle infielder. looks to me he played mostly in JC as an OFer or 3B. if we somehow end up not signing Turner back, I think we potentially have a replacement in a couple of years... but as of now there is a greater chance that either he makes it as our LFer or be a trading chip.

Alex Verdugo is looking good, but our OF also looks still jampacked. Ethier's contract will be done after next season and I can't see us signing him back unless it's for the minimum and he is our primary LH pinch hitter. we still have Joc, Thompson, Toles, SVS, ****, and Verdugo, Diaz, and Calhoun coming up at least. the more I give it a thought Thompson and Toles should be mated for platoon for now. SVS still to me deserves a shot at at least being a platoon mate with Ethier next season in the RF.

Cody Bellinger seems almost ready. he has reached the AAA at the end of this 2016 and in 11 at bats, he belted 3 HRs outta the park. he too seem to be our LFer until Gonzo is no longer on our roster.

what do we do with Gavin Lux? at age 18, he batted .296 in merely 228 at bats. granted it was between Arizona rookie league and Pioneer league, both in R level leagues.... but he is not a small kid either. at 6-2 190 LBS, he has the potential to find some damn power. he hit ZERO homeruns so far tho. 13 doubles and 5 triples do seem to indicate gap power with some running speed that is at least okay, if not slightly better. he's got 2 steals as well. but the number that stood out to me is his .375 OBP. he has gotten on base around 0.080 better than his BA. yeah it is a rookie level league result, but it still tells me this kid has patience to be selective. other than a few outliers, either you are a player born with the ability to walk, or you are not. I believe taking a walk is the hardest skill to teach other than obvious DNA based skills such as power and reaction speed. ( or trying to convert lefty to a righty )
IF Gavin Lux is for real, which I didn't think he was at the time of the draft, does it mean we move Seager to 3B? Gavin would have to prove to be a much superior defensive SS than Corey and I don't know if that is the case here at all. If he does blossom into a good hitting, great glove middle infielder, is he the future 2B for us with Willie either beating out Toles, get traded, or make it as a 3B?

Jordan Sheffield, I am sure most of us if not all of us ( which is now standing at 5 regular posters lol) agree he is the future closer. he is not very tall but listed as 6 foot ( doubtful) at 185 LBS ( no doubt) I see more of Marcus Stroman but with red warning label on his medical chart. I don't see him as a starter but with his dynomite fastball and two future above non-fastballs, ( slider and change up) he has a very high ceiling as a closer or a set up man but so far his small sample of record in 12 innings reeks of a high bust potential as well.

Walker Buehler is the other closer candidate in my book. we have Urias - De Leon - Trevor Oaks as the future starters with Maeda, Ryu ( hopefully he is healthy), McCarthy under contract and that is not counting our Ace Kershaw. I can also see the possibility of having Sheffield and Buehler being our CP/SU combo in 3 years.

Yadier Alvarez is the one I personally think is most likely to turn a starter among these trio of pitchers so far I have discussed. love his size, love his delivery which reminds me so much of Ramon Martinez, and his devastating fastball.

problem is, none of these three pitchers are anywhere near contributing anytime soon.

shoot, I fully understand as I have already stated, this is a symptom of my baseball withdrawal, but I can't help it. and love the possibility of Ronny Brito's potential. a 17 year old with already an elite defense. I actually like him to be the future SS that moves Seager to 3rd as the clearly superior defender. the more I think about it, Gavin Lux is still a trading chip if Ronny can just hit above .700 OPS.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

What do you see in these few pitches? If you can see anything.



I like our draft picks, especially given where we are usually positioned in the draft. I wish we could have a few top 5 picks like Theo had in Chicago.

I was big on Sheffield but his numbers this year werent that impressive. I'm hoping he can impress next season. Was it Gasparino that cheered in our war room when he was available at 36? I'm also concerned as to why he dropped in the draft compared to where he was ranked.

I'm also big on Buehler. He has pretty good stuff. He's competitive....and he went to the Harvard of the South....I view Sheff as bullpen. I view Buehler as a starter. It's good to see him healthy.
What's most important for me is how fast those college arms can make it to the big leagues.

I'm pleased with Lux's rookie year and I'll reserve judgment on Will Smith.


We can get 2 extra draft picks for Kenley and Justin Turner. My goodness, it would take incredible nuts for F&Z to let those 2 go and bet on themselves to draft their 2 slots well.

I want both back but like I always say...if youre gonna do something. Do it with conviction.

[Quake Griffin]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=peters000dj-

killing it in rookie ball.

[Quake Griffin]

http://dodgers.mlblogs.com/2016/10/27/stewart-wins-award-as-top-starting-pitcher-in-minors/

[Neddy]

it's only been two days since the Dodgers got eliminated but I am already having a serious case of baseball withdrawal symptoms.

been looking up our prospects and who are likely to make it and who are most likely trade chips, and as of now, our position prospects seem filled with future LFers.

thanks to Quake pointing out to me, I looked up WIllie Calhoun's scouting report beyond his stat lines. his defense in deed is in question to stick as a middle infielder. looks to me he played mostly in JC as an OFer or 3B. if we somehow end up not signing Turner back, I think we potentially have a replacement in a couple of years... but as of now there is a greater chance that either he makes it as our LFer or be a trading chip.

Alex Verdugo is looking good, but our OF also looks still jampacked. Ethier's contract will be done after next season and I can't see us signing him back unless it's for the minimum and he is our primary LH pinch hitter. we still have Joc, Thompson, Toles, SVS, ****, and Verdugo, Diaz, and Calhoun coming up at least. the more I give it a thought Thompson and Toles should be mated for platoon for now. SVS still to me deserves a shot at at least being a platoon mate with Ethier next season in the RF.

Cody Bellinger seems almost ready. he has reached the AAA at the end of this 2016 and in 11 at bats, he belted 3 HRs outta the park. he too seem to be our LFer until Gonzo is no longer on our roster.

what do we do with Gavin Lux? at age 18, he batted .296 in merely 228 at bats. granted it was between Arizona rookie league and Pioneer league, both in R level leagues.... but he is not a small kid either. at 6-2 190 LBS, he has the potential to find some damn power. he hit ZERO homeruns so far tho. 13 doubles and 5 triples do seem to indicate gap power with some running speed that is at least okay, if not slightly better. he's got 2 steals as well. but the number that stood out to me is his .375 OBP. he has gotten on base around 0.080 better than his BA. yeah it is a rookie level league result, but it still tells me this kid has patience to be selective. other than a few outliers, either you are a player born with the ability to walk, or you are not. I believe taking a walk is the hardest skill to teach other than obvious DNA based skills such as power and reaction speed. ( or trying to convert lefty to a righty )
IF Gavin Lux is for real, which I didn't think he was at the time of the draft, does it mean we move Seager to 3B? Gavin would have to prove to be a much superior defensive SS than Corey and I don't know if that is the case here at all. If he does blossom into a good hitting, great glove middle infielder, is he the future 2B for us with Willie either beating out Toles, get traded, or make it as a 3B?

Jordan Sheffield, I am sure most of us if not all of us ( which is now standing at 5 regular posters lol) agree he is the future closer. he is not very tall but listed as 6 foot ( doubtful) at 185 LBS ( no doubt) I see more of Marcus Stroman but with red warning label on his medical chart. I don't see him as a starter but with his dynomite fastball and two future above non-fastballs, ( slider and change up) he has a very high ceiling as a closer or a set up man but so far his small sample of record in 12 innings reeks of a high bust potential as well.

Walker Buehler is the other closer candidate in my book. we have Urias - De Leon - Trevor Oaks as the future starters with Maeda, Ryu ( hopefully he is healthy), McCarthy under contract and that is not counting our Ace Kershaw. I can also see the possibility of having Sheffield and Buehler being our CP/SU combo in 3 years.

Yadier Alvarez is the one I personally think is most likely to turn a starter among these trio of pitchers so far I have discussed. love his size, love his delivery which reminds me so much of Ramon Martinez, and his devastating fastball.

problem is, none of these three pitchers are anywhere near contributing anytime soon.

shoot, I fully understand as I have already stated, this is a symptom of my baseball withdrawal, but I can't help it. and love the possibility of Ronny Brito's potential. a 17 year old with already an elite defense. I actually like him to be the future SS that moves Seager to 3rd as the clearly superior defender. the more I think about it, Gavin Lux is still a trading chip if Ronny can just hit above .700 OPS.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

What do you see in these few pitches? If you can see anything.



I like our draft picks, especially given where we are usually positioned in the draft. I wish we could have a few top 5 picks like Theo had in Chicago.

I was big on Sheffield but his numbers this year werent that impressive. I'm hoping he can impress next season. Was it Gasparino that cheered in our war room when he was available at 36? I'm also concerned as to why he dropped in the draft compared to where he was ranked.

I'm also big on Buehler. He has pretty good stuff. He's competitive....and he went to the Harvard of the South....I view Sheff as bullpen. I view Buehler as a starter. It's good to see him healthy.
What's most important for me is how fast those college arms can make it to the big leagues.

I'm pleased with Lux's rookie year and I'll reserve judgment on Will Smith.


We can get 2 extra draft picks for Kenley and Justin Turner. My goodness, it would take incredible nuts for F&Z to let those 2 go and bet on themselves to draft their 2 slots well.

I want both back but like I always say...if youre gonna do something. Do it with conviction.

thanks for posting those vids!

and it is no wonder Walker Buehler was already injured, he makes no effort to use his lower half of the body in his throwing motion. he is all arms and his upper body. he needs to correct that and hopfully he is open to coaching and our developmental program have guys who can make that happen. I can see one of our old boys Chan Ho to be a possible mentor to use Walker's lower body better, as Park was all lower half.

I really like Shefields's mechanics. it is much more sound than that of Walker. but it also seems he needs a maximum effort to get his pitch off. looking at that vid, I would say starting is probably out of question. you can't be utilizing that mechanics and spend your maximum effort at every pitch and expect to last 6 innings.

[Neddy]

man I am so regretful that our old friend Kuroda never got to have his chance at history by pitching in NPB game 7 now that The Nippon Ham Fighters won it all in 6. but the Shohei Otani clock for MLB posting starts... now. he wanted to sign with us out of high school until the Hams convinced the young man to allow both pitching and hitting. we can sign him again.

[Neddy]

PS- Otani won't be as motivated to get posted if we force him to be limited to a pitcher only. he wants to play everyday.

we will have a need for a platoon mate for a corner OF if we are really set on moving on from Puig. Nippon Ham has nothing more they can ask out of Shohei as he won it all for them, all star homerun derby, ERA and wins leader for their team, best HR per at bat ratio, started a game for the finals, closed out a game in the finals, DHed, played in the OF, got clutch hits all through out the season and through the climax series in the Pacific league, and he was slated to start the game 7 against Kuroda if needed. I understand they have his rights for another 5 more years until he can be a free agent, but it's not fair to this kid to be overused until he is 27, I want his incredible and unique skill sets now at age 22. the entire country of Japan should be behind this, as they are potentially releasing the best of all time of Japanese baseball to challenge and become a MLB's true monster. guys like Hideo had a good few seasons, Ichiro will go down as one of the best of all time as a leadoff man. but there never has been a potential sure-fire first ballot HOF type of a talent who can challenge being the best player in the American baseball. he closed game 5 with 164 kmph fastballs. that puts him in Chapman's mph range and he is a starter. if we can have him, he will immediately superceed all of our pichers not gamed Kershaw and become #2 from the day 1.

but even if he is in need of a season or two to adjust to be as dominant as he has been in Japan here and be related to #4-5 starter type and a 5th OFer, just think, we don't have to worry about losing a pitching spot for an extra position player or visa versa. it would be like having a 26 men major league roster over all other teams. this kid also had a great success playing DH without the concern of injuries in the outfield. some young guys can't play well unless they are playing defense. he already proved he can without.

[Neddy]

PS2- man I am having a major baseball withdrawal issues... still watching the WS and just got done with the Japan Series... gonna be up until 4 in the morning to watch the Korean Series game 2 tonight too... the DooSan Bears vs NC DInos. Eric Thames the former Mariner is the current reigning MVP and is the mainman of the Dinos. he is only the second American position player ever to win that award in South Korea and the first one ever in that league with a 40-40. the Bears feature the most popular American player possibly ever of that league in their Ace Dustin Nippert who married a local gal and speaks fluent Korean as well. this is a great rematch of last year's KS which propelled the stock of HyunSoo Kim to become an Oriole and Nippert to cement his legacy in that country.

November 18th is when the Aussie baseball league starts... they play doubleheader every Saturday... man I have an addiction problem. and there is no such thing as Baseballaholics Annonymous........ Im **** outta luck.

[Quake Griffin]

Neddy, what's his best position in the OF? It has to be RF given his arm talent right? Otani would easily fill seats around this country. We need to grab him. I see NO PROBLEM with letting him do both if he is good enough.

On a 20-80 scale where would you rate him as a pitcher and where would you rate him as an everyday player?
_________________


I'm thinking about Turner and Jansen potentially leaving. Isnt it safe to say that if we signed both of them, we could get more value on the trade market than we could from a compensation draft pick?

[Neddy]

Neddy, what's his best position in the OF? It has to be RF given his arm talent right? Otani would easily fill seats around this country. We need to grab him. I see NO PROBLEM with letting him do both if he is good enough.

On a 20-80 scale where would you rate him as a pitcher and where would you rate him as an everyday player?

Otani the pitcher

Otani's fastball : 70 easy. an elite velocity. carries the velocity deep into games.
his offspeeds/breaking balls : 45 to 55. still a work in progress but very effective because of his elite fastball.
control : 50. his BB/9 has gotten better and is very good for that league, but need to see how he handles MLB batters.
mental make up : 70+. this kid truly believes he is destined for greatness. gave his entire salary to his mother and lived at the team's dorm and did nothing but train 7 days a week. truly enjoys the game for the game itself, not as a tool of success.

Otani the hitter

raw. just coming to his own this season and has not built a long track record of success.
Batspeed / mechanics : unknown. not enough data out there.

arm : 60. a RF in the ,majors easily
footspeed : 45. he might be faster as he did have 7 SB this season, and 13 total SB with only 3 CS in his short career at 939 total at bats. but do we really want a potential ace run around the base path?
power : 60. might even be better. he rated 14.6 at bats per HR this season. remember when I went bonkers for SVS a couple of seasons ago for getting under 20 per HR? for a context, Barry Bonds in his entire career minus his PED roiding 2001 season where he was rating less than 7 at bats per HR, his rest of career rates at 13.4 at bats per HR. HOF Roberto Clemente on the other hand, is at just under 40 at bats per HR. not the same type of player, I know, but as a context this is the range we see and Otani is currently at an excellent elite rate as of 2016. even when accounting for his entire career where he struggled in the first 3 seasons as a hitter, he is still at 20.8 at bats per HR. that's pretty amazing.
contact : the dude hit .322 this season. has enough contact to be at least 50 to 55 and probably better if he was solely focused on hitting. he made a sudden jump this year. he figured something out after going .202 last season. the season before that he was at .274, and .238 in his rookie season. it shows a young kid with ups and downs to had the light bulb come on in his head.

overall, Otani the pitcher is an elite, A+ prospect anywhere. Otani the hitter is a good prospect with a solid projection in the majors. has the ceiling of say, middle of the lineup, average defensive outfielder. probably better than Thompson offensively and less than Toles defensively with 25 to 30 HRs if played a full season as an OFer.

[Neddy]

I'm thinking about Turner and Jansen potentially leaving. Isnt it safe to say that if we signed both of them, we could get more value on the trade market than we could from a compensation draft pick?

you are absolutely right about Jansen, but with Turner, it all depends on what he is looking like next season once/If he is paid. I'm always skeptical about guys who have played many seasons into their MLB careers and suddenly gain tools they previously did not have. Turner's slg just made a quantum leap after coming over to us, after spending that one last season with the Mets next to Marlon Byrd and we all know what happened to Marlon and his also oddly sudden career jump at age 35 in power department.

now if I am wrong, and his changes in forward momentum mechanics of his swing and a few other pointers Byrd supposedly gave Turner is what did it free of any substance that can come out on Urinalysis, good for him. but he would be an outlier and not the norm. he is also turning 32 in 3 weeks. I would not count on a corner infielder to be productive past 35. that leaves 3, maybe 4 seasons. 3 year deal with vested option is where I think our FO would feel comfortable giving, and I bet the Mets or Jays will pass that threshhold. it would be great if a team like the whitesox gives Turner what he wants and overpay for him. they probably need to move Tood Frazier to DH and just move on from Justin Morneau and other terrible DH candidates. they are currently 11th in the draft I believe. losing Turner for the 11th in this draft, with Howie/Barnes as potential 3rd base replacement, we have options. Willie Calhoun was a college 3rd baseman too. if we can replace Turner's bat from a corner outfield, I don't see moving on from him being devastating for us.

[Ranma]

what do we do with Gavin Lux? at age 18, he batted .296 in merely 228 at bats. granted it was between Arizona rookie league and Pioneer league, both in R level leagues.... but he is not a small kid either. at 6-2 190 LBS, he has the potential to find some damn power. he hit ZERO homeruns so far tho. 13 doubles and 5 triples do seem to indicate gap power with some running speed that is at least okay, if not slightly better. he's got 2 steals as well. but the number that stood out to me is his .375 OBP. he has gotten on base around 0.080 better than his BA. yeah it is a rookie level league result, but it still tells me this kid has patience to be selective. other than a few outliers, either you are a player born with the ability to walk, or you are not. I believe taking a walk is the hardest skill to teach other than obvious DNA based skills such as power and reaction speed. ( or trying to convert lefty to a righty )
IF Gavin Lux is for real, which I didn't think he was at the time of the draft, does it mean we move Seager to 3B? Gavin would have to prove to be a much superior defensive SS than Corey and I don't know if that is the case here at all. If he does blossom into a good hitting, great glove middle infielder, is he the future 2B for us with Willie either beating out Toles, get traded, or make it as a 3B?
...

shoot, I fully understand as I have already stated, this is a symptom of my baseball withdrawal, but I can't help it. and love the possibility of Ronny Brito's potential. a 17 year old with already an elite defense. I actually like him to be the future SS that moves Seager to 3rd as the clearly superior defender. the more I think about it, Gavin Lux is still a trading chip if Ronny can just hit above .700 OPS.

I'm encouraged to hear about Lux's positive development already given that I considered him a long-term work in progress when we drafted him. I was fretting over selecting him over Delvin Perez even with the PED issue since Perez had more tools at the position. While Gavin might be a better batter, Perez is already ahead of him as a baserunner. Lux could still develop speed but I don't see him ever matching up to Perez in that department. However, I think Lux has a better chance of developing more speed than Brito despite Brito being a year younger with both currently rated at 55 as runners.

Hopefully, Lux's development can instill more faith in me with regards to Gasparino's draft acumen. I've been a bit critical of Gasparino's draft record based on his selections compared to what I would have done at the time in hindsight, but in the end, he did draft Trea Turner and Hunter Renfroe in the first round, two prospects I wouldn't mind at all having in our developmental system.

[Ranma]

Jordan Sheffield, I am sure most of us if not all of us ( which is now standing at 5 regular posters lol) agree he is the future closer. he is not very tall but listed as 6 foot ( doubtful) at 185 LBS ( no doubt) I see more of Marcus Stroman but with red warning label on his medical chart. I don't see him as a starter but with his dynomite fastball and two future above non-fastballs, ( slider and change up) he has a very high ceiling as a closer or a set up man but so far his small sample of record in 12 innings reeks of a high bust potential as well.

I was big on Sheffield but his numbers this year werent that impressive. I'm hoping he can impress next season. Was it Gasparino that cheered in our war room when he was available at 36? I'm also concerned as to why he dropped in the draft compared to where he was ranked.

I really like Shefields's mechanics. it is much more sound than that of Walker. but it also seems he needs a maximum effort to get his pitch off. looking at that vid, I would say starting is probably out of question. you can't be utilizing that mechanics and spend your maximum effort at every pitch and expect to last 6 innings.

Yeah, Gasparino cheered when Sheffield was available and I projected him as good value at that spot in the draft as well. As Neddy noted, Sheffield has a high-effort delivery, which led to arm trouble and TJ surgery. He has a tendency to overthrow instead of actually pitching despite having great stuff, which causes him to have bouts with his control at times. His short stature and long-term health, especially in relation to the strain of his mechanics, had teams (and me) concerned about his prospects, which is why I valued him as a future closer. However, that value was tied to how quickly he will be fast-tracked to the majors given concerns about his longevity even as a reliever.

This is why I had Cal Quantrill higher on my list, but so did the Padres, and I debated between Sheffield and Alec Hansen for a while along with OF Buddy Reed. I was hoping to nab Hansen's upside in the second round despite his noted control issues, but he's since been pitching well for the White Sox's system. At the same time, getting Jansen's heir apparent was also a priority for me along with catching prospects. Remember me clamoring for Cooper Johnson while Neddy was advocating for Logan Ice? Drafting Will Smith with 1 of our first-rounders threw a monkey wrench into my draft plans, but I like the scouting report on Smith.

In fact, I liked our draft overall, but just felt that we should have done more in the early rounds in swinging for the fences. However, quite a few of our anticipated targets were scooped up early with Perez's tumble down the draft board due to his PED violation and we just missed out on Blake Rutherford by 2 draft slots.

[Ranma]

Walker Buehler is the other closer candidate in my book. we have Urias - De Leon - Trevor Oaks as the future starters with Maeda, Ryu ( hopefully he is healthy), McCarthy under contract and that is not counting our Ace Kershaw. I can also see the possibility of having Sheffield and Buehler being our CP/SU combo in 3 years.

I'm also big on Buehler. He has pretty good stuff. He's competitive....and he went to the Harvard of the South....I view Sheff as bullpen. I view Buehler as a starter. It's good to see him healthy.
What's most important for me is how fast those college arms can make it to the big leagues.

and it is no wonder Walker Buehler was already injured, he makes no effort to use his lower half of the body in his throwing motion. he is all arms and his upper body. he needs to correct that and hopfully he is open to coaching and our developmental program have guys who can make that happen. I can see one of our old boys Chan Ho to be a possible mentor to use Walker's lower body better, as Park was all lower half.

Like Quake, I also see Buehler as a future starter. He has the repertoire of a #2 starter but I currently project him as a 4th or 5th starter for the Dodgers if he makes it with us. That's interesting, Neddy. I remember a scouting report praising the follow-through of his arm action in finishing his pitches, but it seems obvious that he is not using his lower body enough given how skinny his legs are. Then again, Ramon Martinez and Orel Hershiser weren't exactly bottom-heavy either. Thanks for the insight and, yeah, hopefully our developmental coaches can straighten him out. I like Walker as a possible rotation option for us down the line. I also echo Quake's sentiments about both of our draftees from Vanderbilt developing sooner rather than later given their college experience.

[Ranma]

PS- Otani won't be as motivated to get posted if we force him to be limited to a pitcher only. he wants to play everyday.

we will have a need for a platoon mate for a corner OF if we are really set on moving on from Puig. Nippon Ham has nothing more they can ask out of Shohei as he won it all for them, all star homerun derby, ERA and wins leader for their team, best HR per at bat ratio, started a game for the finals, closed out a game in the finals, DHed, played in the OF, got clutch hits all through out the season and through the climax series in the Pacific league, and he was slated to start the game 7 against Kuroda if needed. I understand they have his rights for another 5 more years until he can be a free agent, but it's not fair to this kid to be overused until he is 27, I want his incredible and unique skill sets now at age 22. the entire country of Japan should be behind this, as they are potentially releasing the best of all time of Japanese baseball to challenge and become a MLB's true monster. guys like Hideo had a good few seasons, Ichiro will go down as one of the best of all time as a leadoff man. but there never has been a potential sure-fire first ballot HOF type of a talent who can challenge being the best player in the American baseball. he closed game 5 with 164 kmph fastballs. that puts him in Chapman's mph range and he is a starter. if we can have him, he will immediately superceed all of our pichers not gamed Kershaw and become #2 from the day 1.

but even if he is in need of a season or two to adjust to be as dominant as he has been in Japan here and be related to #4-5 starter type and a 5th OFer, just think, we don't have to worry about losing a pitching spot for an extra position player or visa versa. it would be like having a 26 men major league roster over all other teams. this kid also had a great success playing DH without the concern of injuries in the outfield. some young guys can't play well unless they are playing defense. he already proved he can without.

Neddy, what's his best position in the OF? It has to be RF given his arm talent right? Otani would easily fill seats around this country. We need to grab him. I see NO PROBLEM with letting him do both if he is good enough.

On a 20-80 scale where would you rate him as a pitcher and where would you rate him as an everyday player?

Otani the pitcher

Otani's fastball : 70 easy. an elite velocity. carries the velocity deep into games.
his offspeeds/breaking balls : 45 to 55. still a work in progress but very effective because of his elite fastball.
control : 50. his BB/9 has gotten better and is very good for that league, but need to see how he handles MLB batters.
mental make up : 70+. this kid truly believes he is destined for greatness. gave his entire salary to his mother and lived at the team's dorm and did nothing but train 7 days a week. truly enjoys the game for the game itself, not as a tool of success.

Otani the hitter

raw. just coming to his own this season and has not built a long track record of success.
Batspeed / mechanics : unknown. not enough data out there.

arm : 60. a RF in the ,majors easily
footspeed : 45. he might be faster as he did have 7 SB this season, and 13 total SB with only 3 CS in his short career at 939 total at bats. but do we really want a potential ace run around the base path?
power : 60. might even be better. he rated 14.6 at bats per HR this season. remember when I went bonkers for SVS a couple of seasons ago for getting under 20 per HR? for a context, Barry Bonds in his entire career minus his PED roiding 2001 season where he was rating less than 7 at bats per HR, his rest of career rates at 13.4 at bats per HR. HOF Roberto Clemente on the other hand, is at just under 40 at bats per HR. not the same type of player, I know, but as a context this is the range we see and Otani is currently at an excellent elite rate as of 2016. even when accounting for his entire career where he struggled in the first 3 seasons as a hitter, he is still at 20.8 at bats per HR. that's pretty amazing.
contact : the dude hit .322 this season. has enough contact to be at least 50 to 55 and probably better if he was solely focused on hitting. he made a sudden jump this year. he figured something out after going .202 last season. the season before that he was at .274, and .238 in his rookie season. it shows a young kid with ups and downs to had the light bulb come on in his head.

overall, Otani the pitcher is an elite, A+ prospect anywhere. Otani the hitter is a good prospect with a solid projection in the majors. has the ceiling of say, middle of the lineup, average defensive outfielder. probably better than Thompson offensively and less than Toles defensively with 25 to 30 HRs if played a full season as an OFer.

I'd love to have Otani sign with the Dodgers this offseason and there does seem to be some chance of that happening. After all, the sooner he's over the better adjusted he will be for the MLB game. However, I think it is more likely that he'll come over next offseason after the 2017 season when he's had a chance to represent Japan in the World Baseball Classic next year. This will allow him to pitch on the international stage as a Japanese hero while continuing to bat regularly.

Let's face it, he won't bat as much in the US as he would in Japan regardless of which MLB team signs him. I like Neddy's suggestion of having him be a #4 or #5 starter but he would quickly become our #2 starter once he made it stateside; he'd be the 3rd starter at worst. Even with his quantum leap in batting, I'm generally skeptical of Japanese hitters doing well enough against major-league pitching. Ichiro Suzuki was the only Japanese position player I had complete faith in succeeding in MLB. Also, Otani's batting prowess would suffer since he'd need at-bats to continue developing as a hitter when teams would be reluctant to giving him such opportunities given the anticipated huge investment they would be making in him as a pitcher.

I know you were being conservative with rating Otani's fastball, Neddy. He'd definitely clear 70 easily with the likelihood of sitting at 75. He could very well secure 80 but I think his fastball's movement is a bit lacking. It might be a little too straight, but I'm not entirely sure. I've seen Japanese batters foul off such pitches relatively easily even when he ties his speed record on the radar gun. I expect more swing-and-miss from such a high-velocity pitch.

[Ranma]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=peters000dj-

killing it in rookie ball.

I remember you lauding this particular selection citing his power as a right-handed bat, which is not only lacking in our developmental system but also on our big-league roster. I was also onboard with the selection but not as high as you were since I believe I was still eyeing another prospect in the 4th round. Having said that, I considered him one of our notable draft selections.

Speaking of which, another draftee of interest is second-rounder Mitchell White, who pitched 22 scoreless innings over 3 levels of minor league baseball in 2016. Yeah, it's not much of a sample size, but this kid had late helium going into the draft and he's already struck out 30 over those 22 innings while holding opposing batters to a .096 batting average.

Also, 2015 second-rounder Mitchell Hansen seems to be rebounding well after a surprising down season last year down in the minors. In 293 at-bats over 70 games, Hansen posted a .311 batting average slugging 11 homeruns and even stealing 11 bases out of 15 attempts. Glad to see him turning things around as I had high hopes for him when we drafted him.

[Quake Griffin]

I'm of the mind that we just sign both guys back and if we are dead set on moving on from them, trade them for the bigger return.

You get much more than a draft pick in the mid 20s to 40s.
It also gives us the flexibility to trade for a player that is closer to MLB ready rather than drafting a player that may need 3-5 years in the minors before coming up.

the only thing is...a team will probably hold up the deal based on the fact that they would have to pay the full price tag AND throw in prospects. I still think it is worth the shot though.

[Neddy]

what do we do with Gavin Lux? at age 18, he batted .296 in merely 228 at bats. granted it was between Arizona rookie league and Pioneer league, both in R level leagues.... but he is not a small kid either. at 6-2 190 LBS, he has the potential to find some damn power. he hit ZERO homeruns so far tho. 13 doubles and 5 triples do seem to indicate gap power with some running speed that is at least okay, if not slightly better. he's got 2 steals as well. but the number that stood out to me is his .375 OBP. he has gotten on base around 0.080 better than his BA. yeah it is a rookie level league result, but it still tells me this kid has patience to be selective. other than a few outliers, either you are a player born with the ability to walk, or you are not. I believe taking a walk is the hardest skill to teach other than obvious DNA based skills such as power and reaction speed. ( or trying to convert lefty to a righty )
IF Gavin Lux is for real, which I didn't think he was at the time of the draft, does it mean we move Seager to 3B? Gavin would have to prove to be a much superior defensive SS than Corey and I don't know if that is the case here at all. If he does blossom into a good hitting, great glove middle infielder, is he the future 2B for us with Willie either beating out Toles, get traded, or make it as a 3B?
...

shoot, I fully understand as I have already stated, this is a symptom of my baseball withdrawal, but I can't help it. and love the possibility of Ronny Brito's potential. a 17 year old with already an elite defense. I actually like him to be the future SS that moves Seager to 3rd as the clearly superior defender. the more I think about it, Gavin Lux is still a trading chip if Ronny can just hit above .700 OPS.

I'm encouraged to hear about Lux's positive development already given that I considered him a long-term work in progress when we drafted him. I was fretting over selecting him over Delvin Perez even with the PED issue since Perez had more tools at the position. While Gavin might be a better batter, Perez is already ahead of him as a baserunner. Lux could still develop speed but I don't see him ever matching up to Perez in that department. However, I think Lux has a better chance of developing more speed than Brito despite Brito being a year younger with both currently rated at 55 as runners.

Hopefully, Lux's development can instill more faith in me with regards to Gasparino's draft acumen. I've been a bit critical of Gasparino's draft record based on his selections compared to what I would have done at the time in hindsight, but in the end, he did draft Trea Turner and Hunter Renfroe in the first round, two prospects I wouldn't mind at all having in our developmental system.

yeah Lux is actually on a faster track than I thought he ever could be. when we first got him, it seemed to me that his signability was all over the map and his presence was merely a way to pad up our package for a trade. now I am starting to warm up on the idea that he may actually have a future with us as a positive addition to our defense and the lineup. not sold 100%, but warming up to it.

[Neddy]

what do you guys think about Brian Dozier as Utley's replacement? Twins are a gutter rank team and needs young, controllable starting pitchers. we have Stewart and Wood who will never get that chance with us but can bring us a small haul. they are never gonna trade Joe Mauer so they may wanna get rid of one bad contract we can absorb and possibly get rid of. wonder if Stewart and Wood would be good enough to get Dozier AND Blankenhorn.... never hurts to accumilate young hot corners.

[Ranma]

what do you guys think about Brian Dozier as Utley's replacement? Twins are a gutter rank team and needs young, controllable starting pitchers. we have Stewart and Wood who will never get that chance with us but can bring us a small haul. they are never gonna trade Joe Mauer so they may wanna get rid of one bad contract we can absorb and possibly get rid of. wonder if Stewart and Wood would be good enough to get Dozier AND Blankenhorn.... never hurts to accumulate young hot corners.

Maybe I'm being a homer, but I personally think Alex Wood is more valuable than Brian Dozier even if he's not a starter for us. I just don't like the idea of trading much for a second baseman unless he's the next coming of Roberto Alomar. Yeah, Dozier is fine defensively and addresses our need for a right-handed bat who hits lefties well but I'm wary of buying high on him. He hit 42 HRs this past season and 28 and 23 ,respectively, the seasons prior to that. However, he it a career high of .268 after lingering around .240 in previous seasons. His trade value will be bloated because his contract is so cheap. Plus, he turned it on in the 2nd half of the season for his career year. Is it an awakening or an anomaly?

I feel like 2B prospects are among the easiest prospects to draft given that it is not a premium position, generally speaking, in the proceedings. Likewise, I don't feel the need to pay premium prices for that particular position, especially when we have internal options like Kendrick, Hernandez, and Barnes already on the roster. Of course, none of those players have encouraging recent track records at the major-league level, but I just think the position can be handled ably by internal options. This is not like wasting time with Rollins over Seager. Personally, I'd love to give Barnes a shot at the starting job there even though he looks to be counted on as the team's backup C.

[Quake Griffin]

Dozier is a weird player to me.

Varying OBPs over the year, a career K rate of 19.3%, but his batting average isn't good at all.
He's had one year where his BB% was over 12%. The rest are around 8%.

How exactly can a guy with that much power, and just what I'd consider an average walk rate have an OBP of .340 last year but a BA that low?


He's a complete enigma and he scares me.
Which Dozier are we going to get?