Quake Griffin wrote:Roberts also sidestepped batting order specifics or naming names when asked for contenders to bat leadoff, but indicated that it's more likely to be a rotation than a permanent job the way it was for him when he played "because of the way that the game has evolved," meaning metrics and matchups. "Players are starting to understand their strengths and weaknesses," he said. "Nowadays it's another spot in the order, where a typical leadoff hitter doesn't have to be a Brett Butler at the top."
Is this the 1st time you've heard Dave Roberts mention metrics? It is for me.
I knew he was on board because they really liked him but I didn't see for myself. It's been all smiles and hallmark cards mixed with a dose of how to handle Puig.
Either way, the #1 hole is not just "another spot" in the order IMO but it's probably just semantics. I think we're on the same page.
the SABR-head dogma of the lineup, goes something like this.
the best player period, should bat 2nd.
the best OBP who is not the best overall, bats first.
the best SLG hitter among the top 3 in OPS who is not #1 or #2, hits clean up.
the 3rd bats man is the 4th overall who is not #1, #2, or #4 in the lineup.
the reasoning is quite simple, if you get into the math. the #2 hitter in a season typically end up with 50 more at bats with just about the identical total amount of men on base. #4 hitter also usually end up with typically more runners on base than #3 hitter. the conventional ideas go right out the window when the real data accumilated over a century is actually applied. the lead off does not need to be a rabbit around the base to be a good leadoff, a la Juan Pierre. you can't help the team if you can't get on base. guys like Shin Soo Choo who may not steal any base at all but who can get on base with the very best in the game, who got on base at .423 clip, posting .885 OPS with the Reds in 2013, with career OBP of .382, are far more effective than any speedy lead off hitters active today. (ya I'm sure there will be people up in arms about this, if there were more than 3 of us reading and posting in here, lol)