2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft

[Quake Griffin]

Why would TJS make a potential #1 overall drop that far?

We've seen far more pitchers get back than not (or at least it seems that way).

Would you be comfortable with back to back 1st rounders with zippers on their elbow?

[Ranma]

Why would TJS make a potential #1 overall drop that far?

We've seen far more pitchers get back than not (or at least it seems that way).

Would you be comfortable with back to back 1st rounders with zippers on their elbow?

There are a couple of factors that I think are in play. First, while there is no clear-cut #1 overall pick, there are plenty of candidates from the upside of Jason Groome, the performance and stuff of A.J. Puk, the productive bats of Kyle Lewis, Nick Senzel, Corey Ray, and maybe even Mickey Moniak. Man, I knew the draft order would fluctuate but this is ridiculous. I don't recall a draft board having so many rankings drastically jumbled in such a short time, especially at the top. Then again, I haven't followed the MLB draft as long as the other sports leagues.

Second, there's the added uncertainty of how Quantrill's arm has healed. He has yet to throw off the mound, which leaves teams concerned if he can recapture the same form he had previously. It's a relatively minor concern, but with nothing recent to assess performance-wise, that poses as a wildcard since evaluators like data to base information on. The unknown quantity makes it hard for scouts to advocate for such prospects.

Generally speaking, no, I would not be inclined to spend back-to-back 1st-round picks on pitchers who both had Tommy John surgery, but again, it depends on the prospects as there are exceptions to the rule. Hypothetically speaking, would I want to draft let's say both Walker Buehler and Cal Quantrill if they happened to be in the same draft class with their respective TJS? No, not really. Would I do it for Brady Aiken and Cal Quantrill in the same hypothetical situation? Most likely, yes, depending on who else would be available.

Wait...there is no need for a hypothetical since I I think I discussed this very possibility early on in this thread with both Jordan Sheffield and Cal Quantrill. At first, I was more open to drafting both pitchers coming off TJS given their impressive stuff, but I'm less inclined to do so now. Contributing to this change of heart are the prospects projected to be available with our 3 first-rounders whereas before I was uncertain of the prospects that were initially thought to be available with our 32nd and 36th overall picks. Things look more promising now, so I'm inclined not to select both Sheffield and Quantrill at this point. However, Quantrill is notably my preferred choice between the two.

[Ranma]

Sedlock has been a fast riser on the draft boards after previously being underrated and has been connected to the Dodgers of late. While there is certainly a lot to like about him, I'm not inclined to take him with the 32nd or 36th overall pick, nevermind the 20th as some are projecting. He's got a really good build with solid pitch offerings to go along with great makeup, which includes a gamer mentality, a professional approach, and good aptitude but he's been projected as a no. 3 or no. 4 starter after converting from reliever. I wouldn't mind at all having him in our organization, but not at the expense of a first-round selection and I'm concerned that Gasparino might actually use 1 of our 3 picks in the opening round on him as I've made my preference for higher upside propositions known.

Vince Lara-Cinisomo, Baseball America (5/20/16)

“He’s a guy (who) conditions himself probably better or as good as anybody we’ve ever had,” Hartleb said. “He’s a very strong, big guy, and he didn’t have a lot of tough innings. Cody’s been efficient all year.”

Hartleb said Sedlock knows better than most the proper balance, which is why he doesn’t worry about pitch counts.

“He’s done a great job for us this year because he cares about competing and cares about winning,” Hartleb said.
...

“I try not to think about (the draft). Once you step on the mound, it’s just me and Jason (Goldstein) behind the plate. The draft is still quite a bit away.”

That attitude does not surprise his coach a bit.

“You know competitors just go out, they’re concerned about winning games,” Hartleb said. “He’ll take care of the draft stuff when that happens.”

Game Report: Cody Sedlock


Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (5/31/16)

Rankings
Baseball America: 42 (actually 36)
Baseball Prospectus: 28
ESPN: 20
Minor League Ball: 39
MLB.com: 32 (actually 26 now)
Perfect Game: 38
Scouting Baseball: 23
...

The big right-hander isn’t uncommon to his former teammate Tyler Jay, who was drafted No. 6 overall by the Twins in last year’s draft (and the Dodgers had some interest in Jay, if he were to fall in the draft). Sedlock is armed with a sinking fastball that sits in the low-90s. It has touched the mid-90s, but that has been out of the bullpen. It has heavy sinking action that should produce a lot of ground balls, if not some swings-and-misses. He has a low-80s slider that has flashed above-average but needs more refinement. Out of the rotation, he also has a curveball and changeup, but both of those need significant work in terms of quality and command.
...

Sedlock is a junior at Illinois and should be easily signable in the first round. He’s maxed out physically, is a project as a starting pitcher and has a No. 3 starter’s ceiling. If he doesn’t hit that ceiling, he could be a nice back-end starter. If starting doesn’t work out, he has bullpen experience to fall back on, which might be the best thing for him in the long run. He might not ever be a lock-down closer, but a high-leverage reliever with velocity and the ability to get ground balls is quite valuable.

2016 MLB Draft Profile: RHP Cody Sedlock, Illinois

[Ranma]

Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (5/28/16)

Rankings
Baseball America: 19 (actually 16)
Baseball Prospectus: 12
ESPN: 11
Minor League Ball: 19
MLB.com: 25 (actually 20 now)
Perfect Game: 24
Scouting Baseball: 12
...

On offense, Jones uses a smooth, effortless left-handed swing that generates some of the best bat speed in the country. Because of that, he profiles to have at least average power and the potential for more. He has a quick load and the bat stays in the hitting zone for a long time. He also has the frame to add some good weight that could help him tap into that raw power potential. He’ll probably begin his career as more of a gap-power guy than an over-the-fence-power guy. His hit tool is ahead of his power at present.

Defensively, Jones — legitimately — could find himself as four or five positions. He’s a shortstop now, but because of his size, a natural move to third base makes sense. But he has solid range that could play at second base as an offense-first middle infielder. If he, for some reason, cannot handle the infield, a corner outfield spot could be in his future. He has plenty of arm strength for right field, if need be. He’s athletic enough to handle most spots on the diamond.

2016 MLB Draft Profile: SS/3B Nolan Jones, Holy Ghost Prep (PA.)


Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider

ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Nolan Jones

[Ranma]

Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (6/1/16)

Rankings
Baseball America: 23 (actually 38)
Baseball Prospectus: 31
ESPN: 23
Minor League Ball: 21
MLB.com: 19
Perfect Game: 26
Scouting Baseball: 10
...

Armed with elite fastball velocity, Sheffield does a lot of damage with his heater. It sits in the 94-96 MPH range and has touched 98 in the past. He can sink it and cut it a bit, so it isn’t just a straight 4-seamer that is much easier for MLB hitters to track. He also has a slider/curveball concoction that has flashed above-average and sits in the low-80s. It isn’t sure what kind of pitch it is just yet, but it has swing-and-miss potential. He also has a changeup that has glimpses of being at least a solid-average pitch. If he’s to remain in a big-league rotation, he’ll need all three of his pitches.
...

Sheffield has already had Tommy John surgery, hence the redshirt sophomore classification. He has two more years of eligibility remaining, if he were to not sign. But as almost a surefire 1st-rounder, and with his injury past, it’s hard not to see him signing. His ceiling is that of a No. 2 starter. More likely, he’s a No. 3/4 guy or a dominant power reliever out of the bullpen. He could be similar to Grant Holmes in that regard, but Holmes has a larger frame. The easy (lazy) comp is Marcus Stroman.

2016 MLB Draft Profile: RHP Jordan Sheffield, Vanderbilt

[Ranma]

Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (6/3/16)

My Big Board, v 3.0

1. 3B/OF/RHP Josh Lowe, Pope HS (Ga.)
2. SS/3B Nolan Jones, Holy Ghost Prep (Pa.)
3. RHP Matt Manning, Sheldon HS (Calif.)
4. RHP Jordan Sheffield, Vanderbilt
5. RHP Ian Anderson, Shenendhowa HS (N.Y.)
6. RHP Justin Dunn, Boston College
7. OF/1B William Benson, The Westminser Schools (Ga.)
8. LHP Eric Lauer, Kent St.
9. RHP Cal Quantrill, Stanford
10. SS Gavin Lux, Indian Trail Academy (Wis.)
11. RHP Jared Horn, Vintage HS (Calif.)
12. RHP Cody Sedlock, Illinois
13. RHP Kevin Gowdy, Santa Barbara HS (Calif.)
14. LHP Joey Wentz, Shawnee Mission East HS (Kansas)
15. 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff, Plum HS (Pa.)

Josh Lowe is still the unquestioned and unchallenged No. 1 on my Big Board. His combination of power, athleticism, potential and upside are unmatched. He has a chance to be a star.

Nolan Jones has almost everything Lowe has, minus the power. He could be a Ben Zobrist-type player if he reaches his ceiling.

Matt Manning has just the slightest signability concern, meaning he could drop on draft day. If he makes it to 20, he might be the best player the Dodgers could take.

2016 MLB Draft: Dodgers’ Big Board, V 3.0


Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (5/26/16)

A couple college pitchers move up a bit in Justin Dunn and Eric Lauer. Lauer is more and more interesting to me the more I read up on him.
...

Jordan Sheffield, despite a small stature and Tommy John past, is a guy to watch for the Dodgers if they want a college pitcher … especially if he falls to No. 32.
...

William Benson is a long-term project as a prep position player, but he might have some of the biggest upside in the entire draft.
...

Cal Quantrill — son of Paul Quantrill — makes his first appearance. He hasn’t pitched this season as he is recovering from Tommy John surgery. But, he was a 1-1 candidate before the injury, so the talent is absolutely present.

2016 MLB Draft: Dodgers’ Big Board, V 2.0

[Ranma]

http://www.truebluela.com/2016/6/6/11871138/mlb-draft-2016-top-prospects

Longenhagen is so right about the flaw in our system at this point.

I've been concerned about the lack of quality SS prospects in our system after Seager for a while now, which is why I was looking forward to signing Lucius Fox during the current international signing period before he bailed to San Francisco. Following that, I was optimistic Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. could be the answer but his 6'4" height presents similar problems as Seager does. However, I feel Tito's lithe frame and versatility makes him a better SS than Seager. In any case, he isn't likely to be a long-term answer at short either.

The lack of shortstops in our developmental pipeline coupled with the dearth of such prospects in this year's draft class actually has me concerned that we'll reach for Gavin Lux with one of our first-round selections. Lux is considered the 2nd best SS prospect in the entire draft after Delvin Perez, who should be long gone by the time we make our 1st selection at 20th overall. As I've said before, Lux is a decent enough prospect but his value is inflated by the shortage of quality prospects at his position. While he has a good likelihood to stick at the SS position, he doesn't project to be a good hitter just yet as a fairly raw prep prospect.

I'm not as concerned with our CF prospects right now while I've already noted that I'd like to address our depth at the catcher position in the minors. Also, the funny thing is that next year's crop of international prospects boasts a wealth of decent-to-good SS prospects but we're effectively locked out of that signing period for those prospects given our big spending during the current period.

Anyway, I like David Hood's prospect evaluations even if I don't always agree with them, so I thought I'd post some of his thoughts from his previous prospects rankings to complement the current list you referenced.


David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (5/19/16)

Coming into the season, many outlets had projected Oklahoma pitcher Alec Hansen to go near the top of the draft. I had been critical of Hansen’s command and lack of development on twitter, as I saw him last year and suggested he might have 20-grade command. His stock free fall has still been somewhat surprising, but his performances have stabilized of late and when I saw him two weeks ago, the command was closer to fringe average. He’s still a huge project (literally, he’s 6’7 with the longest arm action in the draft), but if he’s picked in the thirties, he might be a worthwhile gamble for a team.
...

I’ve seen enough rankings by other media outlets to suggest that my lofty ranking of Josh Lowe is likely an outlier, but I just can’t find it in myself to downgrade a player with measurables and tools this loud. Despite being 6’4, Lowe has easy plus grades in speed, arm strength, and raw power, with the arm and power likely reaching double-plus territory. His infield actions and hands aren’t the smoothest, but he has the athleticism to improve at the hot corner and with work I believe he can be a plus defender. Likewise, the swing is more conducive to power and shows some swing and miss, but that too can be developed. Of all players linked to the Dodgers, none have the upside of Lowe.
...

He’s just my 13th-ranked player, but prep righty Matt Manning is my favorite player in this draft. The highly athletic 6’6 Manning comes at hitters from a wide angle and shows heavy life with a well commanded fastball. He won’t likely reach the Dodgers’ first pick, but Manning will be a player I enjoy following as he starts his career.
...

He just missed my top 100, but prep outfielder Trevyne Carter is the ultimate tools/upside play in this draft. Carter needs both physical development and skill refinement and might be a little raw for the pro game, but he has 6.5 speed in the sixty, a plus outfield arm and some of the best bat speed in this class.

2016 MLB Draft: The Top 100 Prospects

[Ranma]

Ken Gurnick, MLB.com (6/6/16)

...

Shopping list
The Dodgers spent $115.5 million to sign Cuban infielders Hector Olivera, Alex Guerrero and Erisbel Arruebarrena, and they're already written off, so it's a reasonable guess that the organization still needs infielders, as well as run producers at any position, and, as always, starting pitching.

Trend watch
In his first Dodgers Draft last year, Gasparino took college pitchers with his first two selections, and he went with collegiates with five of the first six players, four of them pitchers. In two Drafts for San Diego, Gasparino took college position players first both times, and both years five of the first six players he selected were position players.
...

Cinderella story
The best home-grown Cinderella story for the Dodgers is still A.J. Ellis, who was drafted in the 18th round in 2003 and spent five years strictly in the Minor Leagues, then another four years shuttling between L.A. and Triple-A before being given a legitimate chance to play with the Dodgers.

In The Show
From the current 25-man roster, Ellis (18th round in 2003), Scott Van Slyke (14th round, '05), Clayton Kershaw (first round, '06), Joc Pederson (11th round, '10) and Corey Seager (first round, '12) were drafted by the Dodgers and developed by their Minor League system.

With 4 Early Picks, Dodgers Have Many Draft Options

[Ranma]

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Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (6/7/16)

Rankings
Baseball America: 30
Baseball Prospectus: 26
ESPN: 25
Minor League Ball: 30
MLB.com: 38
Perfect Game: 47
Scouting Baseball: 39
...

While the Heyward comps are impossible to ignore (same region, same kind of build), Benson might have more offensive potential than Heyward (who is a good offensive producer). His bat speed is among the best of any player in the draft. Coupled with is strength, it gives him the immense power potential not seen from other prospects. The bat speed is present, the strength is present and he makes incredibly hard contact. So, why isn’t he getting more Top 10-15 buzz? It’s the rest of his swing.

Perfect Game wrote him up and said his swing “is almost unnaturally short and has a severe cutoff out front. That lack of extension will create issues with Benson in the future with both his power potential and his plate coverage if it can’t be corrected.” Dodger fans know extension on a swing well with Matt Kemp, and that’s what Benson lacks at present.

2016 MLB Draft Profile: OF William Benson, The Westminster Schools (GA.)


Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider

ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Will Benson

[Ranma]

Jonathan Mayo & Jim Callis, MLB.com (6/7/16)

Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon HS (Sacramento, Calif.), No. 11. The son of former NBA player Rich Manning, he has boosted his stock this spring more than any of the top high school arms. He also has the opportunity to play both baseball and basketball at Loyola Marymount -- and a reported asking price of $5 million to give that up.

Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission East HS (Prairie Village, Kan.), No. 16. Our No. 6-rated high school pitcher in a Draft deep in them, Wentz saw his velocity drop off slightly at the end of his senior season after he missed much of 2015 with a dead arm. To forgo his commitment to Virginia, he wants top-10-pick money. The assigned value for the 10th selection is $3,380,600.

Jared Horn, RHP, Vintage HS (Napa, Calif.), No. 34. Yet another prep pitcher, Horn has a big league body and athleticism, not to mention a fastball that has hit 97 mph. Now that he has raised his profile this spring, it will take $3 million to lure him away from a California scholarship
...

Will Benson, OF, The Westminster Schools (Atlanta), No. 38. Like Rutherford, Benson is a tooled-up high school outfielder whom scouts expected more from this spring. Word is that his family wants the same $4 million bonus that fellow Georgia prep outfielder Daz Cameron got from the Astros as a supplemental first-rounder a year ago.

Draft Buzz: What Callis and Mayo Are Hearing

Breakdown of Dodgers' Assigned 2016 Draft Slot Money Values

Bonus Pool Total: $9,336,500
1st Round (20th Overall): $2,316,300
1st Round (32nd Overall): $1,940,700
Supplemental 1st Round (36th Overall): $1,791,000
2nd Round (65th Overall): $993,800
3rd Round (101st Overall): $590,800
4th Round (131st Overall): $442,400
5th Round (161st Overall): $331,100
6th Round (191st Overall): $247,900
7th Round (221st Overall): $187,400
8th Round (251st Overall): $175,100
9th Round (281st Overall): $163,400
10th Round (311th Overall): $156,600

Note: Unsigned players drafted in 1st through 10th rounds will have corresponding monetary value of draft slot subtracted from the club's bonus pool total. Bonus money in excess of $100,000 given to players drafted in 11th through 40th rounds also counts against the club's bonus pool.

[Ranma]

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Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (6/8/16)

Rankings
Baseball America: 27
Baseball Prospectus: 37
ESPN: 50
Minor League Ball: 25
MLB.com: 27
Perfect Game: 36
Scouting Baseball: 40
...

Production is the name of Lauer’s game. He didn’t face the stiffest competition as a member of Kent State (in the MAC Conference), but nonetheless he dominated to the tune of the best ERA by a Division I college pitcher in 37 years.

In his only outing against a viable NCAA team, he faced Virgina and didn’t fare too well: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R/ER, 5 BB, 5 K. But the highlight of his season came on May 13 when he threw a no-hitter against Bowling Green (13 strikeouts). He would be the first Kent State draftee since 2014 and would join the storied company of Matt Guerrier, Dustin Hermanson, Thurman Munson, Travis Shaw and Steve Stone.

Lauer does have the stuff to be a successful MLB pitcher. His fastball sits in the low-90s and has reached 94 MPH in the past. Like most lefites, there’s some natural movement to the pitch (to the glove side). He can also get a little sink on it. He varies the velocity on his slider, as it’s anywhere from 78-85 MPH with solid shape and depth. It isn’t a true swing-and-miss pitch, but he can still be competitive with it. His curveball is a tick behind the slider and he’ll throw it in the mid-70s with 1-7 shape to it. He also has a changeup that is hard to get a read on because he doesn’t throw it a lot. But like virtually every lefty not named Clayton Kershaw, his changeup should become important when trying to neutralize right-handed batters.

2016 MLB Draft Profile: LHP Eric Lauer, Kent State


Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider

ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Eric Lauer

[Ranma]

secondly, I have to say, when I saw that name Jordan Sheffield, the first thing I did was google him to see if he was related to Gary,

As it turns out, Gary Sheffield is actually Jordan and his brother Justus' uncle.

Joe Trezza, MLB.com (6/8/16)

19. Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt
Jordan is the latest member of the Sheffield family to make Major League waves. The Indians made his brother, Justus, a first-round pick in 2014. Their cousin, Tony, was drafted by the Red Sox in 1992. And their uncle, Gary Sheffield, well, was Gary Sheffield.
Profile

Get to Know the Top 20 MLB Draft Prospects

[Ranma]

Hopefully, Gasparino and the rest of the front office really follow through on the long-view approach with regards to the draft since that actually helped us in building the farm system to begin with when we took Corey Seager over Michael Wacha in 2012 as opposed to selecting Chris Reed over Sonny Gray or Blake Swihart in 2011.

Also, I have little to no interest in drafting Kyle Funkhouser again. He's still a Scott Boras client who didn't show any progress until the draft approached. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he's more concerned with cashing in a Major-League paycheck than improving his ability to actually play in the big leagues. I definitely don't want to waste a pick in the first 3 rounds on this loser.

Jon Weisman, DodgerInsider.com (6/8/16)

Though the Dodgers entered 2016 with the top-rated farm system in baseball, some of that talent (Corey Seager for one) has already to the big leagues. So Los Angeles will be trying to replenish, although the priority isn’t to draft someone who will have an immediate Major League impact.

“We’ve really been trying to keep the long view on that,” Gasparino said. “There’s always a couple of examples where the probability or the speed of the player helps their case, but we’ve been trying to keep the long view, and I think the talent in our farm system helps us do that.”
...

The Dodgers did not sign 2015 first-rounder (35th overall) Kyle Funkhouser, who returned for his senior year at Louisville. Draftees who don’t sign with a team must sign a “reconsent form” to open up the possibility of being drafted by the same team the following year. For what it’s worth, Gasparino said that Funkhouser signed that form.

“We went eyes wide open into Kyle and our pick and what might or might not happen,” Gasparino said. “It was his choice, and we respected it. We still like Kyle a lot, like the family. We have no hard feelings at all.

As Dodgers Eye 2016 draft, 2015 Selections Progress

[Quake Griffin]

Just saw Gasparino say that the talent at #35 this year is a whole grade higher than it was last year.

Makes me wonder if they intentionally drafted Funkhouser knowing he wasn't signable.
Still seems like we were more lucky than anything though. Buehler under slot value, more to give to Funkhouser, and he just didn't take it.

Isn't Funkhouser fallling way off boards anyway? Isn't he a 2nd round pick now?

[Ranma]

Just saw Gasparino say that the talent at #35 this year is a whole grade higher than it was last year.

Makes me wonder if they intentionally drafted Funkhouser knowing he wasn't signable.
Still seems like we were more lucky than anything though. Buehler under slot value, more to give to Funkhouser, and he just didn't take it.

Isn't Funkhouser fallling way off boards anyway? Isn't he a 2nd round pick now?

I agree with that assessment. This year's class is not as top-heavy as last year's but it certainly has more depth. I think we were more lucky than clever. It's possible that Gasparino knew a Boras client who tumbled down draft boards (and lost money in the process) would opt to try to restore his value in the following year, but I don't have such faith in Gasparino at the moment. On the other hand, the rest of the think tank in the front office is reportedly also significantly involved in the draft process even with Gasparino quarterbacking the play, so I guess they could have advised or otherwise directed him on the Funkhouser selection.

I don't see Funkhouser as even worth a 3rd-round pick at this point but some team might still roll the dice on him remembering his previous stature as a top prospect but he's not going in the 1st or compensatory A round.

[Ranma]

I still haven't come close to reading all the new profiles on MLB Pipeline's 2016 Top 200 Draft Prospects list, but here's my updated target list prioritized for each draft slot based on the likelihood of availability and preference:

1st Round (20th Overall): 3B Josh Lowe | RHP Matt Manning | RHP Cal Quantrill
1st Round (32nd Overall): OF William Benson | RHP Alec Hansen | RHP Jordan Sheffield
Competitive Balance Round A (36th Overall): OF Buddy Reed | RHP Jared Horn | RHP Kevin Gowdy
2nd Round (65th Overall): C Cooper Johnson | RHP Reggie Lawson | OF Thomas Jones
3rd Round (101st Overall): LHP Matt Krook | RHP Nolan Martinez | C Logan Ice

Considerations for Later Rounds: OF Trevyne Carter, OF Avery Tuck, RHP Mikey York, RHP Kyle Weatherly, OF Stephen Wrenn.


Obviously, a player prioritized in a higher draft slot would hold more value than and be preferred over one in a lower draft slot regardless of prioritization. For example, Alec Hansen listed in the 2nd slot for the 32nd overall pick would be ahead of Buddy Reed for the 36th overall pick despite being in the 1st slot there. There are other players I like that aren't listed but that's mostly because they are unlikely to be available by the time I would prefer to draft them at a particular selection slot.

This draft poses a lot of questions given the uncertainty of certain prospects due to signability, injury, performance, and even drug-testing failures. For instance, Matt Manning's reported $5 million asking price had me debating whether to place Cal Quantrill ahead of him in preference for the 20th overall selection slot. I chose to stick with Manning, but he presents a challenge if he is not flexible in his signing bonus demands. Our biggest draft slot value is just over $2.3 million and we have about an extra $450,000 in the taxed 5% overage of our allotted draft budget before being penalized with the loss of a future 1st-round pick. We could also shave some money from the other selection slots but that also runs the risk of passing on talented prospects. However, Josh Lowe still remains my top target for the 20th overall selection.

Another approach would be to blow out our draft budget and pick BPA at every opportunity with our remaining picks, but that is not practical for this year since we would lose 2 future 1st-round picks on top of being taxed on the overage. I've recommended employing this very strategy since we will most likely lose our 2019 1st-rounder anyway in our anticipated participation in the stacked free agent class in the winter of 2018, but we're at least 1 year too early to get the most out of that plan.

There is an increased likelihood that Delvin Perez, the top SS prospect in the draft, could be available by the time we make our first selection in light of his failed drug test. Supposedly, numerous teams in the top 15 have taken him off their draft board, but there are still a few who are considering Perez while he is still anticipated to be taken in the 1st round. I have very little doubt that the Dodgers would draft Perez if given the opportunity since the organization has a noticeable need for a top SS prospect in its developmental pipeline along with the dearth of quality SS prospects available in this particular draft class. The organization has not shied away from acquiring players who've been penalized for PED's while espousing reform from such activity (see Yasmani Grandal). However, I am conflicted with such a possibility. I'm not a fan of going after violators of the ban on performance-enhancing drugs but Perez was a prospect I previously coveted and thought out of reach. Plus, there are signs of immaturity issues with him as well, which reminds me of Esribel Arruebarrena, who is steering himself to an eventual exit from the Dodgers organization. Perez would easily supplant Arruebarrena but also poses similar risks albeit to a lesser degree.

Another name who could also drop within reach is OF Blake Rutherford. He's been on scouts' radars for a few years and his reported $3 million price tag is more in line with our top draft slot value, but he's an older prep prospect at 19 years of age who hasn't shown as much progress as anticipated from the high expectations set upon him from an early age. Still, I'd be glad to roll the dice in selecting him, but Rutherford is less likely than Perez to be available for us at the 20th overall selection slot.

The 32nd overall selection slot also presents problematic possibilities. Will Benson's supposed $4 million price tag prevents the Dodgers from taken both Manning and Benson together as their combined signing bonus demands total $9 million, which is approximately the entirety of our assigned draft budget. While Benson has tremendous upside, he is a long-term project who needs work.

Alec Hansen represents another Kyle Funkhouser situation from last year. Hansen was also previously projected as a top-5 pick who has fallen severely down draft boards due to control issues and concerns over arm ailments. Unlike Funkhouser, however, Hansen still exhibits tremendous stuff; it just needs to be harnessed but that has been an ongoing issue. Like Funkhouser, Hansen has a year of college eligibility left so he has the option of returning to school should he not get a desirable monetary offer to sign. Could the Dodgers afford to punt another draft pick in this area? Next year's class is projected to be better but it remains to be seen if it will be as deep. Personally, I'd be willing to take the risk for Hansen in this instance.

I recently mentioned how I'd prefer not to spend back-to-back 1st-round picks on both Cal Quantrill and Jordan Sheffield given their respective recovery from Tommy John surgery. While that still holds true, my outlined strategy actually lists that scenario as a welcomed possibility. While Quantrill is a starter who was previously a candidate for the 1st overall pick, Sheffield has the makings to be the Dodgers' future closer. I'm sure the Dodgers would attempt to stretch him out into a starter, but Sheffield would be best served to be groomed as the heir apparent to Kenley Jansen. Another prospect who could fill a similar role is Zack Burdi, who can throw in the triple digits with regularity and has fairly clean mechanics. I've previously mentioned Burdi early in this thread for consideration with our lower draft selection slots, but he's apparently risen up the draft board of late at a rapid pace. Both are college prospects who are viewed as being able to be fast-tracked to the Majors.

I've been concerned with talk of the Dodgers' focus on college arms and high school bats as well as reaching for SS prospects, but those are not the strength of this year's class. If the Dodgers have to go after a college pitcher, I'd prefer it to be Cal Quantrill but it sounds like the Dodgers are looking elsewhere. If the Dodgers pass on Josh Lowe as their choice for a prep bat, I hope they go with Nolan Jones. While he does not have the same upside as Lowe, Jones is a safer prospect with similar value. I'd prefer to select Jones later, but he is unlikely to be available with our picks in the 30's. While I wouldn't be excited to draft him, we could do worse than Nolan Jones as a Gasparino type of pick.

I actually like what the Dodgers have done with their lower draft picks in recent years. I just wish they would hit more regularly with our picks in the 1st round without sacrificing upside. Joc Pederson was taken 352nd overall in the 11th round in 2010; Jose De Leon 724th overall in the 24th round in 2013; Cody Bellinger 124th overall in the 4th round in 2013; and Willie Calhoun 132nd overall in the 4th round in 2015. The priority should be to swing for the fences in targeting high-upside prospects to fill in the top of our prospect rankings rather than just replenishing an already deep farm system.

[Ranma]

We better do better than what is projected below. The draft is also live streamed on MLB.com right now.

Christopher Crawford, SI.com (6/9/16)

2016 MLB Mock Draft: Florida's A.J. Puk Goes No. 1 to Phillies


David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (6/9/16)

Round 1, Pick 20
LHP Joey Wentz

Shawnee Mission East High School, Prairie Village, Kansas

The board played right into my hands. With teams supposedly scared off by a high price tag and a rumored decline in stuff, I take him with confidence that for the right price, Wentz is signable. As for the stuff issue, here’s the word I received from a source who took in Wentz’s final high school outing:

"Smooth delivery with repeatable arm action… Fastball has some life at 89-93 but can be a little straight at times… Plus action on the curveball 1/7 action and has a good feel for the change… On the high end he’s John Lester with a similar build… you don’t see many left handed breaking balls as good as his out of high school… You throw in plus command and clean delivery there’s not much not to like… Does have some injury history but it sounded like it was more precautionary than anything else… He’s been pretty protected."

It doesn’t sound like there’s been that significant a drop off, and it’s obvious the potential is there. I’m a big fan of the delivery and athleticism in Wentz’s mechanics, and see a quick moving high school arm. He may not have outright elite potential, but his ceiling of a top two or three starter is enough to pull the trigger on Wentz. The more Wentz matures physically and pitches on the farm, the more likely I see Wentz raising his average velocity to the 92-95 mph range to couple with a plus breaking ball and developing change up.

Wentz won’t be cheap, he’s committed to Virginia and would be a two-way player with plus raw power at first base, and for this exercise I’ve earmarked him for top-10 pick money, so for the next few rounds, I will need to find players to take below slot to fit Wentz into our allotment.

MLB Draft 2016: Dodgers Mock Draft, the First 10 Rounds


Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (6/9/16)

20. Dodgers
Callis: T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles also would be interested in Manning if he scares off the first 19 clubs. The Dodgers have scouted a lot of shortstops but are more likely to wait until their second first-rounder (No. 32) or their supplemental first-rounder (No. 36) to take one. The priority here would be a college arm from among Hudson, Sedlock, Zeuch, Sheffield, Lauer and Georgia right-hander Robert Tyler.
Mayo: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois
With multiple picks, the Dodgers can be a little creative. Most of the talk has been about college arms with this first selection, with Vandy's Sheffield often mentioned here. If they were to go this route, they'd likely take the top college arm still available and Sedlock could be it.
...

32. Dodgers (compensation for loss of free agent Zack Greinke)
Callis: Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt
Though Los Angeles does want a shortstop, it could try to grab Florida Atlantic's C.J. Chatham at No. 36 and take another college arm from its preferred list here.
Mayo: Taylor Trammell, OF, Mount Paran Christian School (Kennesaw, Ga.)
Trammell has considerable tools, but he also has some feel to hit, a reason why his name has been mentioned higher up in the round at times. There was talk of a team in the sandwich or early second round trying to work out a deal to get the former multi-sport standout to them.

Opening-Round Projections by Callis, Mayo

[Ranma]

Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (6/9/16)

My Big Board, v 4.0

1. SS Delvin Perez, International Baseball Academy (Puerto Rico)
2. 3B/OF/RHP Josh Lowe, Pope HS (Ga.)
3. SS/3B Nolan Jones, Holy Ghost Prep (Pa.)
4. RHP Jordan Sheffield, Vanderbilt
5. RHP Ian Anderson, Shenendhowa HS (N.Y.)
6. RHP Cal Quantrill, Stanford
7. OF/1B William Benson, The Westminser Schools (Ga.)
8. RHP Dakota Hudson, Mississippi St.
9. SS Gavin Lux, Indian Trail Academy (Wis.)
10. RHP Cody Sedlock, Illinois
11. LHP Eric Lauer, Kent St.
12. RHP Jared Horn, Vintage HS (Calif.)
13. SS/3B Drew Mendoza, Lake Mineolla HS (Fla.)
14. RHP Kevin Gowdy, Santa Barbara HS (Calif.)
15. OF Taylor Trammell Mount Paran Christian HS (Ga.)

The kid making news is Delvin Perez, who failed a drug test by testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. Guess what: Don’t care. The kid is supremely talented (though, not Carlos Correa-talented, as he has been unfairly compared to him) and is easily the best shortstop prospect in the draft. There are concerns about his maturity (personified in the failed drug), but the talent is elite. He doesn’t turn 18 until November and isn’t committed to a college. He should be an easy sign.

Josh Lowe is basically 1A in this scenario. His combination of power, versatility, athleticism and upside are great qualities to have in a prospect. If the Dodgers took him with Perez still on the board, I wouldn’t be upset.

Nolan Jones still ranks highly on my list, as his versatility is unmatched by players available in the first round. He has a premium bat with just his power being a question mark.

Jordan Sheffield‘s upside and potential with the arm might be among the best of any college starting pitcher. There is inherent risk that comes with him, though (former TJ recipient, not ideal size, high-effort delivery).

I removed Matt Manning from the list because he, more than likely, isn’t going to fall to No. 20. Ian Anderson might be in that category, but I’m holding out hope a big-time prep pitcher is available to the Dodgers, even if they aren’t going to take him. Then again, he might go as high as No. 3 to Atlanta.

Cal Quantrill has rocketed up my list. I’m intrigued by the overall potential, despite him coming off Tommy John surgery. He can’t be any riskier than Michael Matuella, whom I wanted the Dodgers to draft last year.

2016 MLB Draft: Dodgers’ Big Board, V 4.0

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Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (6/9/16)

No. 20
...

Outside of Sabathia, not the best crop of draftees in the last 20 years. Span is a solid player, Plouffe has had his moments, Cordero was once a solid closer and Withrow gets a mention simply because he’s a former Dodger. The real talent comes more than 20 years ago.

1993: OF Torii Hunter, Twins
1990: RHP Mike Mussina, Orioles
1985: IF Greg Jefferies, Mets
1977: RHP Bob Welch, Dodgers
1971: RHP Rick Rhoden, Dodgers
...

No. 32
...

Odorizzi is the best of the lot. He’s a solid pitcher, but the best player chosen in the last 20 years? Oof. Judge might end up being the best pick overall, as even the guys who came before these draftees were less than impressive. I like Davidson, but he’s a ways off from MLB action, while Berrios is a Top 50 prospect right now. Diggins was drafted here but didn’t sign. The Dodgers drafted him two years later and he ultimately busted out (and traded for Tyler Houston).

1991: LHP Justin Thompson, Tigers
1986: RHP Roger Pavlik, Rangers
1983: 1B Dave Magadan, Mets
1978: C Dave Valle, Mariners
1969: LHP Lee Lacy, Dodgers
...

No. 36
...

Oh hello, Mr. Miller. The Baylor pitcher burst onto the scene after being drafted. I even ranked him as the best prospect in the system in a midseason update many years ago. Then, he forgot how to throw strikes, his stuff backed up and he moved to the outfield. That didn’t really work out and he has since retired. Piscotty should be a fixture in St. Louis for many years, Coghlan was a Rookie of the Year award winner and Saltalamacchia was a top prospect and is still a solid catcher.

But the two of the three selections from more than 20 years ago really stand out.

1986: RHP Erik Hanson, Mariners
1985: LHP Randy Johnson, Expos
1965: C Johnny Bench, Reds
...

The Dodgers also have selections 65 and 101. Here are the notable players chosen at those spots.

65: Garret Gould, (2009), Dustin Pedroia (2004), Randy Winn (1995)
101: Phil Pfeifer (2015) Jonathan Lucroy (2007), Charlie Moore (1971)

Dodger draftees at each spot (Gould and Pfeifer), an MVP in Pedroia and one of baseball’s best catchers (and future Dodger?) in Lucroy.

History of the Nos. 20, 32 and 36 Picks in the MLB Draft