Prospects and trade discussion

Ranma · Post #721 » by **Ranma** » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:50 pm

Ranma · Post #722 » by **Ranma** » Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:09 pm

Neddy · Post #723 » by **Neddy** » Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:24 pm

what is the right price for a high leverage left-handed bullpen arm? I think we are putting too much expectation for this front office to make a deal for the sake of making a deal.

Brad Hand's price will not be justifiable. I think that much is clear. AJ Preller will ask far too much for Hand's services. no go there.

Britton's name and his reputation is what it is, but the fact that the O's have not run him out there for back to back nights since his return from his "forearm" injury reeks of a coverup, and likelihood of quick sale. and Peter Angelos is the east coast Donald Sterling. I would rather not deal with that scumbag.

Justin Wilson's name is out there, and judging by what the Tigers asked for JDM from Arizona, this maybe the most doable deal out there, but he also has a dozen of suiters which can cause inflation of the cost. what if the cost was Dennis Santana and Kyle Farmer? looks like Al may be selling off his son to elsewhere and McCann can't hit. that leaves potentially a vacuum behind Hicks in catching spot for the Tigers, and Dennis is a young, strong right armed pitcher who projects rather well. if not, how about a straight up one for one trade of sending off Willie to be their LF/2B/DH slugger? I do think that the Tigers will eventually find a buyer for Wilson with more number of assets, but Wilson for Willie is a great deal for both. we don't have a defensive position for Willie as a NL team, and Tigers get to sell off a lefty bullpen arm who suddenly figured out how to pitch just this season, into an everyday slugger who may become a permanent fixture at DH for decades to come. Victor Martinez is 38 years old and is hitting just poultry .700 OPS. he is done.

Tony Watson... no. just no. don't want him anywhere near our team with his 1.5 WHIP.

as for adding another starter, I think Yu Darvish is probably the best option out there. his 3.45 ERA doesn't seem all that great but his WHIP is still at his career level of 1.141 this year, and moving him into a NL with pitchers having to hit, he can probably dip down below 3.00 for his second half of the season. for Yu, I would sell off all 3 I have mentioned... Kyle Farmer, Dennis Santana, and Willie Calhoun. that is an hell of a price to pay for half a season of Yu, but Clayton-Yu-Wood-Hill would be a devastating 4 men rotation come playoffs. this also pushes McCarthy-Ryu-Maeda to the bullpen.

I dunno if I like Sonny Gray. having 3 more controllable seasons after this year too, Billy Beane is not going to sell him off cheaply. to obtain Sonny, I think it will take two of the top 3 prospects we hold dearly. and i don't believe his body type can necessarily stay at an elite level for the long haul.

Ranma · Post #724 » by **Ranma** » Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:38 pm

I tend to favor higher upside prospects in rankings and, despite my prejudice against Verdugo, I've considered him the 2nd best prospect in the Dodgers' developmental pipeline for the past month given his continued production and consistency along with question marks regarding Alvarez's future as a starter. Alvarez is still a project so I'm not too worried, but when I hear talk of the organization's evaluators starting to question whether he'll be a reliever or starter, it certainly deflates some of the enthusiasm I've had for him. Still, my preference is to keep Alvarez over Verdugo for now. Buehler is the clear-cut top prospect for the Dodgers and looks to be the first to be called up among the trio.

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Chad Moriyama, DodgersDigest.com (7/20/17)

In related news, Baseball America released their Midseason Top 10 for the Dodgers, and the top three are the three supposed untouchables.

1. Walker Buehler, RHP
Triple-A Oklahoma City
Age: 22
Buehler’s meteoric rise has been one of the season’s main storylines, having gone from undersized injury risk to earning true No. 1 starter grades from some evaluators. Buehler had Tommy John surgery in 2015 shortly after the Dodgers drafted him in the first round and he pitched only five innings in 2016. He has returned this year firing 96-99 mph fastballs, a present plus curveball, a future plus slider and a usable changeup he can throw for strikes. Overall Buehler went 2-2, 2.89 with 90 strikeouts and 21 walks in 65.1 innings between high Class A and Double-A before earning the bump to Triple-A.

2. Alex Verdugo, OF
Triple-A Oklahoma City
Age: 21
Verdugo showed an advanced feel to hit beyond his years with Team Mexico at the World Baseball Classic and has continued in Triple-A. His status as a potential high-average, everyday-caliber center fielder remains intact, although the lack of loft in his swing has produced only three home runs and thrown his power potential into question.

3. Yadier Alvarez, RHP
High Class A Rancho Cucamonga
Age: 21
Alvarez throws 95-99 mph fastballs with remarkable ease, but his lack of fastball command or reliable secondaries has resulted in a 5.31 ERA and more than a hit allowed per inning. Rancho Cucamonga pitching coach Kip Wells recently adjusted Alvarez’s grip on his four-seam fastball to prevent it from cutting over the plate, in hopes that will stop the pitch from running into barrels.

Dodgers in on Britton, Wilson, But Reluctant to Trade Buehler, Verdugo, Alvarez

Quake Griffin · Post #725 » by **Quake Griffin** » Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:52 pm

Why would it stay elite for the long haul? He aint elite now.

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Neddy · Post #726 » by **Neddy** » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:09 pm

Ranma wrote:I tend to favor higher upside prospects in rankings and, despite my prejudice against Verdugo, I've considered him the 2nd best prospect in the Dodgers' developmental pipeline for the past month given his continued production and consistency along with question marks regarding Alvarez's future as a starter. Alvarez is still a project so I'm not too worried, but when I hear talk of the organization's evaluators starting to question whether he'll be a reliever or starter, it certainly deflates some of the enthusiasm I've had for him. Still, my preference is to keep Alvarez over Verdugo for now. Buehler is the clear-cut top prospect for the Dodgers and looks to be the first to be called up.

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Chad Moriyama, DodgersDigest.com (7/20/17)
In related news, Baseball America released their Midseason Top 10 for the Dodgers, and the top three are the three supposed untouchables.

1. Walker Buehler, RHP
Triple-A Oklahoma City
Age: 22
Buehler’s meteoric rise has been one of the season’s main storylines, having gone from undersized injury risk to earning true No. 1 starter grades from some evaluators. Buehler had Tommy John surgery in 2015 shortly after the Dodgers drafted him in the first round and he pitched only five innings in 2016. He has returned this year firing 96-99 mph fastballs, a present plus curveball, a future plus slider and a usable changeup he can throw for strikes. Overall Buehler went 2-2, 2.89 with 90 strikeouts and 21 walks in 65.1 innings between high Class A and Double-A before earning the bump to Triple-A.

2. Alex Verdugo, OF
Triple-A Oklahoma City
Age: 21
Verdugo showed an advanced feel to hit beyond his years with Team Mexico at the World Baseball Classic and has continued in Triple-A. His status as a potential high-average, everyday-caliber center fielder remains intact, although the lack of loft in his swing has produced only three home runs and thrown his power potential into question.

3. Yadier Alvarez, RHP
High Class A Rancho Cucamonga
Age: 21
Alvarez throws 95-99 mph fastballs with remarkable ease, but his lack of fastball command or reliable secondaries has resulted in a 5.31 ERA and more than a hit allowed per inning. Rancho Cucamonga pitching coach Kip Wells recently adjusted Alvarez’s grip on his four-seam fastball to prevent it from cutting over the plate, in hopes that will stop the pitch from running into barrels.

Dodgers in on Britton, Wilson, But Reluctant to Trade Buehler, Verdugo, Alvarez

I still like Alvarez's stuff, but I have always wondered about his make up. maybe the best time to sell high for him, is right now.

in that case, how about a 3 team trade between the Marlins, the Rangers, and us?

we get GianCarlo Stanton and Yu Darvish and send out McCarthy, WIllie, Dennis Santana to the Rangers and Kyle Farmer and Alvarez to the Marlins.

Marlins get Shin Soo Choo, Alvarez, Kyle Farmer and send out Stanton to us and Roy Morales to the Rangers.

the Rangers get McCarthy + Willie + Dennis and Roy Morales.

why Marlins would do it: they want to get out of Stanton's monster contract. Choo is nowhere near the player Stanton is, but Choo's 62 million due after this season until 2020 is much smaller and cheaper than Stanton's deal. by swapping, they are completely off the hook of Stanton's deal and no need to supplement Mike's 13 year deal to have him not play for the Marlins. grabbing Kyle Farmer and Alvarez eases all the pain too, as AJ Ellis will most likely retire after this season and they have Roy Morales only after Realmuto. Roy can't hit but Kyle can. they both can handle the glove. it's an improvement for them. Alvarez would be the price of this trade for them. and he will be their problem to solve.

why Rangers would do it : they really want to get out of the albatross contract they gave to Choo. he is hitting barely better than .700 OPS and struggling to hit .250 as a 21 million dollars a year man who no longer can play decent defense in the outfield. he still can get on base and he seemed to have found some of his power back tho. having his contract run out in 2020 is much much more easy to palate than GianCarlo Stanton's which runs until the earth no longer can sustain human life. Yu is going to walk after this season and everybody knows it. to get at times troublesome, but other times, dominant pitcher like McCarthy on cheap for a couple of years on the deal, is not exactly a huge step back. and they get to replace Choo with Willie at DH. Roy Morales and Dennis can learn to be the next great battery mates in their minor league system that can use more help.

why we do it. simple. we can afford them. Yu is better than Mc, and all the prospects are worth it for Stanton. bring the hometown kid back and we have unquestionable middle of the order bat in our lineup.

CF R Taylor
SS L Seager
3B R Turner
LF R Stanton
1B L Bellinger
2B R Forsythe
C S Grandal
RF R Puig

with

Kershaw - Yu - Wood - Hill as the playoffs 4 men rotation, will guarantee a WS birth.

only down side to this deal, away from the salary implications, is that both kershaw and Yu will be free agents after this season. but if we can bring both of them back, with having Yu and Maeda on our roster, it may make it a seamless transition for Otani to join us in the future.

Neddy · Post #727 » by **Neddy** » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:10 pm

Quake Griffin wrote:Why would it stay elite for the long haul? He aint elite now.

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lol true.

Ranma · Post #728 » by **Ranma** » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:42 pm

Neddy wrote:I still like Alvarez's stuff, but I have always wondered about his make up. maybe the best time to sell high for him, is right now.

in that case, how about a 3 team trade between the Marlins, the Rangers, and us?

we get GianCarlo Stanton and Yu Darvish and send out McCarthy, WIllie, Dennis Santana to the Rangers and Kyle Farmer and Alvarez to the Marlins.

Marlins get Shin Soo Choo, Alvarez, Kyle Farmer and send out Stanton to us and Roy Morales to the Rangers.

the Rangers get McCarthy + Willie + Dennis and Roy Morales.

I'm more open to dealing Alvarez, but I think we can afford to wait to see what he's got in continuing to develop him without much risk of him losing value as a trade asset. I have faith that his value will increase rather than decrease and, even if it doesn't, he'd still have the likelihood of being a dominant reliever.

I actually like trying to push Santana in a trade as his value may be a at a high point given his continued progress. For whatever reason, I don't see him as a long-term fixture either with less upside than Stewart. I also like the idea of including Farmer in packages for catcher-needy teams but he may be a serviceable 3rd-string catcher for us in the near future; he's probably another guy worth more in trade than team contributor.

why we do it. simple. we can afford them. Yu is better than Mc, and all the prospects are worth it for Stanton. bring the hometown kid back and we have unquestionable middle of the order bat in our lineup.

CF R Taylor
SS L Seager
3B R Turner
LF R Stanton
1B L Bellinger
2B R Forsythe
C S Grandal
RF R Puig

with

Kershaw - Yu - Wood - Hill as the playoffs 4 men rotation, will guarantee a WS birth.

only down side to this deal, away from the salary implications, is that both kershaw and Yu will be free agents after this season. but if we can bring both of them back, with having Yu and Maeda on our roster, it may make it a seamless transition for Otani to join us in the future.

I'm over Stanton even if I wouldn't necessarily mind him on the team. His contract is too expensive for the production he provides and I don't expect the Marlins to kick in enough money to make it worth the trouble. I'd rather pay more to get Harper in free agency in 2018. Speaking of which, Stanton's contract would hinder our flexibility in pursuing either Harper, Machado, or both. The Dodgers would be better off going under the luxury tax threshold next season in order to go all out for the free agency class of 2018. I'm done with bailing out other teams of their stupid contracts.

Darvish is a rental and the last I heard is that Texas wants to re-sign him even if they trade him by the deadline. I've viewed Darvish as a backup to missing out on Otani, but I am curious if having Darvish and Maeda on the team helps our chances with Otani. Personally, I'm not willing to pay the price to find out as the Rangers are supposedly asking for a lot for him or Cole Hamels. Just like with the Marlins, I'm not inclined to bail out the Rangers with their clueless sense of timing and trade demands.

Like you said in a previous post, we're better off not having to make a deal for the sake of making a trade. I like that the Dodgers are communicating that they are "opportunity buyers". If circumstances happen for a good trade to be made, then great. If not, then we aren't in dire need of having to do anything at all.

Quake Griffin · Post #729 » by **Quake Griffin** » Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:59 am

Hear Walker got banged up in his first AAA start.

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Quake Griffin · Post #730 » by **Quake Griffin** » Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:15 am

Isnt Alvarez struggling in High A? Doubt this is selling high on him.

It's tempting to deal these prospects for proven players but I like our talent and I want to see where it goes.

Alvarez is 21 in a new country and I think he started pitching here after a good amount of time off. He'd be finishing up his junior year of college. Development aint linear. It aint stackin blocks. You never know when it'll click. Never know if it clicking will change his confidence and mentality that he can get anybody out.

If it's not Trout at this point, I'm not into dealing him.
Bring Otani in and I'll soften my position.

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Ranma · Post #731 » by **Ranma** » Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:06 am

Quake Griffin wrote:Hear Walker got banged up in his first AAA start.

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Neddy · Post #732 » by **Neddy** » Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:09 pm

growing pains.

Ranma · Post #733 » by **Ranma** » Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:09 pm

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Ranma · Post #734 » by **Ranma** » Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:57 pm

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Neddy · Post #735 » by **Neddy** » Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:42 pm

Ranma wrote:

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Darvish isn't what he was before the injury, but I don't agree with that second tweet. both Colorado and Arizona are very right handed lineup. JDM going to the DBacks is specifically to counter us if we meet in the playoffs. having that option to balance out our lefty trios is a good thing.

I also agree with both of you that McCarthy is a talented player who at times, pitch like the right handed co-ace we need, but also agree with Ranma that his issues, whether it is mental or mechanical, is hard to ignore when the pressure is even more built up in the post season.

but then again, we are running away with just about every measure in baseball. it's not like we are trying to play a catch up.

Neddy · Post #736 » by **Neddy** » Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:45 pm

also, the more I think about who Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaini are, they are not going to send any asset of value for a rental and Jon Daniels is not going to give Yu away. this one is no bueno.

Ranma · Post #737 » by **Ranma** » Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:59 pm

Neddy wrote:but then again, we are running away with just about every measure in baseball. it's not like we are trying to play a catch up.

True. I generally don't like to look ahead as that is a dangerous mentality for organizations to take, but this team doesn't seem the type to do so. As a fan, I'm thinking more in line of how to best prepare for the postseason. It'd be a shame to runaway with the NL title only to fall short in the postseason. I'm sure our front office is having the same priorities in mind while Dave Roberts can focus on keeping his players focused on the day-to-day task of winning each game to avoid incorporating bad habits into the team's DNA. This is why it's good to have a separation of coach and GM duties.

Ranma · Post #738 » by **Ranma** » Sat Jul 22, 2017 7:13 am

Anthony Castrovince, MLB.com (7/21/17)

1. Zach Britton, LHP, Orioles
The most fascinating figure of this Trade Deadline, because we saw what a difference-maker Andrew Miller was for the Indians in their ascent through October last year, and contending clubs can hope for a similar impact from Britton. Alas, Britton, who returned from a forearm strain earlier this month, is very much a moving target right now. Prior to Thursday night, he had seen his velocity tick up each time he took the mound this month, and his ground-ball rate (84.2 percent) was higher and his swinging strike rate (16.7 percent) was comparable to his historic '16. That's the good stuff.

But -- and it's a big but -- Britton's command was way off in giving up two runs on two hits with a walk to the Rangers on Thursday. His velocity was still at 96.3 mph on average, but he generated just one swinging strike among his 23 pitches. This is one guy for whom the smallest of samples could have the biggest of impact in decision-making, so stay tuned.

2. Sonny Gray, RHP, A's
Because of the talent and the years of control involved here, this is the starting-pitching market's big fish right now. You don't need Statcast™ to tell you Gray is in command of the opposition right now, having allowed just six earned runs over 33 1/3 innings in his past five starts, four of which were victories. But Statcast™ does tell you his stuff is particularly on point right now, even by Gray's high standards. Since June 25, his four-seamer is averaging 2,517 rpm, ranking third among those with at least 100 results. Gray's curveball in that span is averaging 2,917 rpm, ranking eighth in the game. The curveball has only generated three swings in 35 uses in that timeframe, but it's also generated 12 called strikes.
...

8. Yu Darvish, RHP, Rangers
If Texas makes its ace available, some clubs investigating Darvish as a rental might be concerned about his 5.40 ERA in July. It is worth noting, however, that no pitcher this month has allowed more hits on what Statcast™ deems non-hard contact (or less than 95 mph exit velocity) than his 13. Darvish's hard-hit rate is 25.4 percent, putting him in the top 25 among starters in July.

9. Justin Wilson, LHP, Tigers
Wilson achieved zero swinging strikes in his outing against the Royals on Wednesday, which doubled as the first outing in which he allowed a run since June 20. Prior to that point, his whiff rate in pitches in the strike zone in eight outings between June 25 and Sunday was 38.5 percent, third highest among relievers. So you can probably put more stock in the bigger sample, but stay tuned.

Statcast scouting: A look at top trade targets

Ranma · Post #739 » by **Ranma** » Sat Jul 22, 2017 4:59 pm

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Neddy · Post #740 » by **Neddy** » Sat Jul 22, 2017 6:31 pm

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I like this.

Jerry Blevins is one guy who has not been affected by HR happy juiced ball era. he is super consistent, and getting a hell of a K/9 this year. he is not lights out, but he is more dependable than the crop of situational lefties we have in our bullpen currently.

Addison Reed is having the best season of his life. hopefully he doesn't become the next Jim Johnson, and can continue his newly found success in a new uniform this year.

the cost of sending prospects for two expiring relievers cannot be that bad. I say we will probably give up a couple of low level prospects (or older prospect who is near but a mere spare part for us type) and maybe a guy who is under control from our pen. maybe this is the right time to dump Hatcher. they get an immediate BP help at the major level and their season is tanked anyway. Hatcher, despite of his age, has like 3 or 4 more years under team control on a dirt cheap deal. Hatcher+Farmer+Sven Schueller sounds like it can get the job done. Mets don't have a single top 100 prospect outside of Amed Rosario, and none of their catchers are worth a damn. only hope is Tomas who just got to AA. the scouting report has Tomas with better bat skills than Farmer and Farmer to be the better defensive catcher between the two, but Farmer is crushing the ball at much higher rate in AAA as we speak. Kyle is around .900 OPS in OKC, Tomas is hitting something like .250/.300/.350 or something around that nature in AA.