Prospects and trade discussion

[Neddy]

my only counter argument to my own assessment is that, we are committed to Taylor-Joc/Kike-Puig as our permanent OFers for the foreseeable future, therefore there is no room for Alex and Willie we all know can't play defense thus belongs in AL.

and despite less than ideal legs, I have no confidence Alex's bat wouldn't justify whatever the defensive difference from him to Joc/**** platoon.

[Quake Griffin]

I'd rather treat Darvish like we treated Rich Hill than treat Rich Hill the way we treated Rich Hill.

But Darvish is growing on me.
Might be worth the investment and getting a headstart on him in free agency. He could be the Greinke we've been missing.

And given Carl is off the books this year, A-Gon and Ethier off next year, we are in a good spot to give him a nice sized deal before Corey and Belly are up for paydays.

Edit: It would impact whether I'd give Manny Machado money so tough to make a decision.



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[Neddy]

I'd rather treat Darvish like we treated Rich Hill than treat Rich Hill the way we treated Rich Hill.

But Darvish is growing on me.
Might be worth the investment and getting a headstart on him in free agency. He could be the Greinke we've been missing.

And given Carl is off the books this year, A-Gon and Ethier off next year, we are in a good spot to give him a nice sized deal before Corey and Belly are up for paydays.




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haha just until two days ago, I was pleading or Yu and you won't about to give up on Alex, and I see our position on this have flipped over two nights.

this is what I love about this little forum where we may have 5 people talking but we still bring diverse ideas all the time.

[Quake Griffin]

I'd rather treat Darvish like we treated Rich Hill than treat Rich Hill the way we treated Rich Hill.

But Darvish is growing on me.
Might be worth the investment and getting a headstart on him in free agency. He could be the Greinke we've been missing.

And given Carl is off the books this year, A-Gon and Ethier off next year, we are in a good spot to give him a nice sized deal before Corey and Belly are up for paydays.




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haha just until two days ago, I was pleading or Yu and you won't about to give up on Alex, and I see our position on this have flipped over two nights.

this is what I love about this little forum where we may have 5 people talking but we still bring diverse ideas all the time.

My initial response was basically the smell test.

Like....Yu? *Sniff* Killed by Blue Jays. Rangers a smart org that will ask for a lot?
Nah.

I have NO PROBLEM flip flopping and being swayed on a topic. Makes me at least feel like I'm considering everything. Plus I think outloud here. So you have all my impressions of a topic. Yu is no exception. It's one start vs. the Jays in his first year back from TJS. Plus he's just so GD filthy.

I'm still not interested in Verdugo for a bullpen piece.
But I would def swing him for a starter...probably Yu given the package.


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[Neddy]

I'd rather treat Darvish like we treated Rich Hill than treat Rich Hill the way we treated Rich Hill.

But Darvish is growing on me.
Might be worth the investment and getting a headstart on him in free agency. He could be the Greinke we've been missing.

And given Carl is off the books this year, A-Gon and Ethier off next year, we are in a good spot to give him a nice sized deal before Corey and Belly are up for paydays.




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haha just until two days ago, I was pleading or Yu and you won't about to give up on Alex, and I see our position on this have flipped over two nights.

this is what I love about this little forum where we may have 5 people talking but we still bring diverse ideas all the time.

My initial response was basically the smell test.

Like....Yu? *Sniff* Killed by Blue Jays. Rangers a smart org that will ask for a lot?
Nah.

I have NO PROBLEM flip flopping and being swayed on a topic. Makes me at least feel like I'm considering everything. Plus I think outloud here. So you have all my impressions of a topic. Yu is no exception. It's one start vs. the Jays in his first year back from TJS. Plus he's just so GD filthy.

I'm still not interested in Verdugo for a bullpen piece.
But I would def swing him for a starter...probably Yu given the package.


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same here, my man, same here...

[Ranma]

Would you do Verdugo and Willie for Darvish?

Guessing my rule of thumb is if you say "yes" without hesitation, it's probably a deal Texas wouldn't do.

Hell, no. I was actually thinking about it today. I'd rather go with Sonny Gray if we're going to give up that much. If we lose Kershaw, we're screwed, anyway. Darvish would be worth it if he weren't a rental. I think Gray would be perfect for us as the 4th/5th starter or maybe even 3rd in the rotation on this elevated pitching staff. His bulldog mentality would serve us well in the playoffs while also allowing Kershaw to pitch on regular rest in the postseason, which is key to the Dodgers' success.

I've previously advocated for Jose De Leon to be our 5th starter, but he's now in Tampa Bay and his health issues apparently have hurt his prospect standing, which is why I'm now looking at Brock Stewart to get that opportunity since the organization was higher on him than De Leon.


Edit: I added some missing text I previously forgot to include in my initial posting.

[Ranma]

I'd rather treat Darvish like we treated Rich Hill than treat Rich Hill the way we treated Rich Hill.

But Darvish is growing on me.
Might be worth the investment and getting a headstart on him in free agency. He could be the Greinke we've been missing.

And given Carl is off the books this year, A-Gon and Ethier off next year, we are in a good spot to give him a nice sized deal before Corey and Belly are up for paydays.

Edit: It would impact whether I'd give Manny Machado money so tough to make a decision.

I actually had the same thoughts this morning with regards to getting a headstart in free agency with Darvish a la Hill. However, while I've been defending the Hill deal in hindsight, I wasn't exactly a fan of the trade at the time but I wasn't overly upset about it either since we gave up quantity over quality. This approach has been something I've been a huge proponent of. The problem is that both Reddick and Hill were rentals, which didn't sit well with me at the time. When we re-signed Hill, it made the deal better in retrospect.

Also, as I've said before, I'd prefer and I think the organization wants to get below the luxury tax by next season to go all out in winter of 2018. Like you, Machado (and Harper) is on my mind.

I've considered Darvish my backup to missing out on Otani, but I'd love to get him regardless. The thing that troubles me is that he seems comfortable with re-signing with Texas and the Rangers are definitely inclined to bring him back. Of course, our situation could persuade him to do otherwise, but I can't count on that.

We need a starter regardless of whether Kershaw comes back, but I want someone good who will stick with us for the long haul.

[Ranma]

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[Neddy]

^OMG! LOL

[Ranma]

Susan Slusser, San Francisco Chronicle (7/25/17)

Gray, a 2015 All-Star who is in his fifth season with Oakland, is a coveted asset before the Monday trade deadline. On Tuesday at Rogers Center, seven teams had scouts on had to watch Gray: the Yankees, who are making a strong push for the right-hander, along with the Cubs, Dodgers, Brewers, Pirates, Indians and Royals.

Sonny Gray Takes Loss in Possible Last Start for A’s

[Ranma]

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Ken Rosenthal, Facebook.com (7/25/17)

*As if their Yu Darvish decision isn’t complicated enough, the Rangers might face an additional obstacle if they accelerate talks to move the right-hander, who is a potential free agent.

Darvish, as I reported in May, has a 10-team no-trade list.

The teams on the list are not known. Neither is Darvish’s strategy in selecting the 10 clubs. He might have chosen likely trade partners as a way of increasing his leverage, picked places he did not want to go, or some combination of both.

The Rangers communicate openly with Darvish. It is extremely doubtful they would pressure him into an uncomfortable decision, especially when they remain serious about signing him long-term.
...

*Count the Dodgers out of the Justin Verlander sweepstakes, not that they were ever in. The Dodgers are trying to get away from Verlander-type contracts, particularly as they face ongoing luxury-tax concerns.

Facebook Post: Ken Rosenthal

[Quake Griffin]

Gotta lol. Sonny Gray last night with a sucky start last night but lowering his ERA because of his own STUPID error before giving up hits to give up runs.

7 teams had scouts in attendance.
This kid's name alone is gonna cause a bidding war and severe overpay.

I'm out.
His peripherals from 2014 and 2015 suggests he was pitching iver his head too.

IMO.
Darvish and Britton are where we should be focusing.


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[Ranma]

Gotta lol. Sonny Gray last night with a sucky start last night but lowering his ERA because of his own STUPID error before giving up hits to give up runs.

7 teams had scouts in attendance.
This kid's name alone is gonna cause a bidding war and severe overpay.

I'm out.
His peripherals from 2014 and 2015 suggests he was pitching iver his head too.

IMO.
Darvish and Britton are where we should be focusing.

Gray admitted that the trade speculation can be difficult at times, but he's been pitching quite well this season. Like our very own Alex Wood, he just had a bad game in his most recent outing. That shouldn't take away from what he's been doing, especially since his downfall was an uncharacteristic error on his part; Gray was a Gold-Glove finalist in 2015 and prides himself on his defense. Wood had the worse performance, but I'm excusing that as Alex facing his old team who should be quite familiar with his stuff. The concern is whether teams will also figure him out as well if they identify something from the game tape.

With regards to Darvish, wasn't he cited for a postseason meltdown in giving up 4 home runs in a postseason game in 2016? I know it was referenced that he had just come back from Tommy John surgery that year, but Sonny Gray is lauded for his big-game performance in the postseason even though he's only pitched in the playoffs in 2013.

Darvish has pitched in 2 postseason games over 2 different years (2012 and 2016). While his 2012 outing was respectable with 7 strikeouts over 5.2 innings and a 2.70 ERA, his overall playoff record is 2 losses with 11 strikeouts over 11.2 innings and an ERA of 5.40. Gray, on the other hand, has a playoff record of only 1 loss in 2 games with 12 strikeouts over 13 innings and a 2.08 ERA.

The Athletics will be more reasonable in their trade demands for Gray than the Rangers will be for Darvish despite Texas offering only a rental who has a 10-team no-trade list. Regardless of peripherals, Gray is younger, under team control for 2 more season after this one, and has put up good numbers outside of 2016 when he was dealing with injury. Unlike Darvish, Gray has actually been trending upward while pitching the best he's ever performed in terms of how sharp his stuff is while Yu has been on a slight decline with diminished stuff albeit still overpowering.

[Quake Griffin]

You've painted a great picture for Sonny.

I still am concerned about costs. I think Darvish gets done with a prospect or it doesnt get done. I think Gray takes a package and I'm more reluctant to do that. Maybe if it we did Sonny and Doolittle together. We could have killed two birds with one stone and I might have been more willing to give up the package.


Even though I did bring up Yu's meltdown against Toronto and even though Sonny has 2 good starts against Detroit, I do struggle with the notion of whether someone is a playoff choker/ hero. I don't believe in magic. I don't believe in "clutch gene" etc. etc. But I do wonder why some get it done. Does Madison Bumgarner just "nut up" in the playoffs or is it Posey's calls/ their scouting/ game plan that aids him? Does David Price choke or does his stuff play worse against better lineups? Etc. Etc. How do Lester and Schilling pitch above their ceilings?

With that said. I don't want to just deal for a guy based on postseason mystique and I don't want to not deal for a guy based on postseason mystique. It's why I backed off of slamming Yu for that performance. It's why I think if we keep working at it Shaw will figure it out one of these years.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

You've painted a great picture for Sonny.

I still am concerned about costs. I think Darvish gets done with a prospect or it doesnt get done. I think Gray takes a package and I'm more reluctant to do that. Maybe if it we did Sonny and Doolittle together. We could have killed two birds with one stone and I might have been more willing to give up the package.

While no offers have leaked, I'm getting the impression that the Rangers' asking price for renting Darvish was comparable to what Oakland is asking for Gray. As it turns out, the A's may have a lower price tag than I anticipated.

First, if the cost for Darvish was just Willie Calhoun, I'd seriously consider it, but I got the sense that Texas wants Verdugo+, which is an absolute no-go for me. Maybe they'll accept Alvarez and/or Stewart instead, but even that is too much to give up.

Second, I want to reiterate that Darvish is the sexier option since he has the more overpowering stuff even in his slightly diminished and more aged state and represents more of an ace than Gray does. The major problem is the lack of a long-term commitment. Having said that, Gray could conceivably be a worthy #2 starter for the Dodgers, though I'd prefer him more in the 3rd/4th/5th spot in the rotation right now depending on the health and performance of our starting pitchers.

Third, the latest report has the Yankees and Astros as the front-runners in the Sonny Gray sweepstakes but the Athletics are apparently prioritizing a young center fielder with the Yankees' Estevan Florial a target. I was willing to include Alex Verdugo and Calhoun in a deal for Gray but it looks like we might be able to get away with offering Yusniel Diaz.

Diaz is currently 88th overall in the MLB Pipeline top 100 rankings while Florial is 90th. However, Florial has good makeup and projects to have much more power along with a stronger outfield arm. Both are speedy, capable options in CF but Diaz projects to have the better hit and fielding tools, though both are fairly comparable. Diaz is actually a year older at 20 but both seem to be about the same level away from the majors.

I assume that Oakland would prefer a prospect close to being major-league ready and Verdugo certainly fits the bill. I've been thinking from the beginning that he was a perfect option for them and justified the cost of giving up a projected solid/good outfielder for an established good 27-year-old starting pitcher as being worth making such a deal.

Still, if we can get Gray for Diaz and others in a package, I'd pull the trigger immediately. Despite the comparable rankings and Diaz currently slightly higher, I think the A's prefer Florial's power potential. At the same time, it seems like we should be able to close the gap.

With Farhan Zaidi already familiar with Gray as a former A's assistant GM, I'm curious as to how highly he values Gray as it seems like the Dodgers have been operating under-the-radar in trade talks involving him, but that is how the front office prefers to operate. At the same time, it seems like we've been more interested in Darvish discussions. Is it a smokescreen? It doesn't feel like it to me.

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Even though I did bring up Yu's meltdown against Toronto and even though Sonny has 2 good starts against Detroit, I do struggle with the notion of whether someone is a playoff choker/ hero. I don't believe in magic. I don't believe in "clutch gene" etc. etc. But I do wonder why some get it done. Does Madison Bumgarner just "nut up" in the playoffs or is it Posey's calls/ their scouting/ game plan that aids him? Does David Price choke or does his stuff play worse against better lineups? Etc. Etc. How do Lester and Schilling pitch above their ceilings?

With that said. I don't want to just deal for a guy based on postseason mystique and I don't want to not deal for a guy based on postseason mystique. It's why I backed off of slamming Yu for that performance. It's why I think if we keep working at it Shaw will figure it out one of these years.

While postseason performance can be overblown given the limited sample size, there have clearly been some clutch playoff performers. Madison Bumgarner has unquestionably been a great example of this. Regardless of Posey's game-calling, it takes an elite compete level to consistently put up excellent performances on short rest in the postseason. Given his shoulder injury, he doesn't look to be at the same level and may never will be again.

Both Darvish and Gray certainly have small sample sizes, but I read that Darvish wasn't feeling particularly good or bad when he gave up the 4 homers in 2016. He commented that he and Lucroy probably should have gone with less fastballs, but to be fair,
pitchers tend not to be at full strength for a year or two coming back from TJS even if they don't feel particularly bad.

Still, it does say something to making adjustments and knowing how to compete in the postseason, which Gray certainly exhibited during his outings in the playoffs. It may catch up to him eventually as he's not exactly built to be an imposing presence on the mound at 5'10" and 190 lbs. but I see some bulldog in him a la Orel Hershiser. He's young enough that I'm not concerned about him faltering in the postseason outside of possible injury concerns.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

Maybe if it we did Sonny and Doolittle together.

I forgot to mention that Sean Doolittle was already traded to Washington. I wasn't really interested in him, anyway.