pitching rotation for 2013

[Neddy]

we are just starting to gather more arms as we are at the beginning of this year's off season, but we are getting a pretty good idea whom Ned Colletti is pursuing, so here it goes. so far we have kershaw-beckett-billingsley-lilly-capuano-harang under contract, and ryu's rights until dec 10th. we have a report that we are most likely to sign greinke to a mega deal, and also after kyle lohse. with that info, our rotation projection so far is

1. L Kershaw
2. R Greinke
3. R Beckett
4. L Ryu
5. R Billingsley

i feel that lohse is our FO's backup plan, i don't think we are after both FAs unless boras' asking price is way beyond reasonable for Ryu, which case i can see us signing lohse and get our money back and return ryu back to hanwha eagles of south korean league.

with Lilly as Billingsley's fill-in if Chad needs a tommyjohn surgery, and either Capuano or Harang as our Long Man.
of course, one of the two will be traded.

i see ted lilly as un-tradeable. his health and his contract makes him highly unlikely to be wanted in the GM meetings.

Capuano had a brilliant first half, followed by a near-complete collapse in the second.

Harang had the most consistent season, as we rarely went beyond 6th innings and rarely gave up more than his share of runs. fielding independent pitching stats show harang was luckier than good, however.

i like cap for our long relief, and being a lefty gives him another edge in the bullpen. i would like us to keep him.

there is also a chance that both billingsley and lilly won't be around in 2013, therefore keeping one of the two of caps and harang is very much a necessity imo.

i also want to see us signing the hanshin tiger closer kyuji fujikawa. he will be a great insurance to have in case brandon league has a meltdown and jensen has another heart issue.

so the bullpen would look like

CP league
SU jensen
SU fujikawa
MR bellisario
MR guerrier
lefty Paco - if we don't keep caps for the bench or we have injury, which will happen at some point. otherwise AAA.

our whole 12 men pitching staff should look like

1 kershaw
2 Greinke
3 Beckett
4 Ryu
5 Billingsley
6 Lilly
7 Caps or harang
8 Guerrier
9 Bellisario
10 Fujikawa
11 Jensen
12 League

feel free to chime in!

[Quake Griffin]

Can Zach rip up Double A ball early so he can get a call up???

if we get greinke and sign ryu, we have 4 guys that can risk trotting dude out as our 5th.

don't like the guys we have for our 5th slot at this point.
and once chad heals...im show casing him out of the pen or something and trading him to a contending team that needs pitching and is willing to take the risk

[Neddy]

zach lee isn't ready to be a major leaguer. i personally am disappointed with his progress and would rather use him for a trade bait. Kershaw+Greinke will be the best 1-2 punch pitching duo in the entire baseball according to advanced stats. I expect billingsley to be lost with an inevitable tommyjohn surgery, and also expect one if not both of Harang and Capuano to be traded. that leaves us with

Kershaw-Greinke-Beckett-Ryu with one or more of lilly+cap+harang to be our 5th. i think 1 through 4 we can compete with anyone and come out on top.

[Quake Griffin]

alright whenever u get back to the boards....im interested.

if we sign greinke....why not still trade for shields?
he's cheap, he's good, he eats innings...our pen will be fresh all year.

Kershaw
Greinke
Shields
Beckett
Ryu

i trade zach lee and dee gordon to the rays to bring him in.
i trade ethier to the rangers for elvy andrus (u know I'm big on him).

i sign victorino to a 2 year 15-20 million dollar deal...put him in center....move kemp to right.
Victorino------------------Andrus
Crawford-------------------Crawford
Kemp-------------------------Kemp
Agon------------ or Agon
Hanley----------------------- Hanley
Andrus/Mark---------------- Mark/Victorino
Mark/Andrus---------------- Victorino/Mark
AJ--------------------------------AJ

I've fielded a great rotation...the pen is solid.
this team can defend.
we're fast...we can be aggressive on the base pads.

somebody get me a job within the org.

explain how i did not make the perfect team

[Neddy]

of course i am huge on james shields. his advanced stats are right up there with greinke and will come much cheaper, at least the first year. the issue is that he is looking for his payday and good chance he could be a 1 year rental as his FA year is coming up, he could also potentially want to be the man rather than a #3 guy on our rotation, but if we can extend him as a contingency as the trade is consummated, in a range of 3 years give him whatever he wants, i am all over it.

i like the fact that you are not including Ethier to a trade to rays for shields as there is no way the rays will take on 17 million a year OF when they can't afford a 9 million a year ace. when i read some of the crap other forums post as trade proposal, i want to tear my hair out. Zach+dee probably won't get the job done as i see them wanting to add more prospects and dump us another salary... what do you say something like

James Shields+ Ben Zobrist for Zach Lee+Dee Gordon+Joc Pederson+Scott Van Slyke+Uribe+cash to pay for uribe's contract?

the reason why the rays would do this, is that this transaction will clear about 15 million off their books while getting a MLB replacement for ben with speedy Dee and Uribe will be coming to them for free as an insurance in case dee doesn't perform. Zach will be their new prize in AA/AAA while they plan on dumping David Price sooner than they would like, and Joc Pederson will answer their LF for the future and Scott Van Slyke to compete for now as desmond jennings has been pitiful for them there. of course we have to give up our best prospects as we are taking their one of top 2 pitchers and hitters each.

on the other hand, we not only get a stud pitcher for our #3 spot but also a great infielder who can play 2B or 3B while hitting a monstrous .848 OPS while hitting from both sides of the plate.

i am not as high on Elvis as he is a infielder version of juan pierre who gets caught stealing 1 out of every 3 attempts, and have absolutely no power as his slugging% makes his OBP% wastes with below average OPS at 91, and that is after improving over the last 3 years... he is cezar izturis at the plate to me.

with the trade i added to your proposal, and without the ranger deal, we would have

Kershaw
Greinke
Shields
Beckett
Ryu
one of harang/lilly/capuano becomes the spot starter

as our rotation and

L Crawford
S Zobrist -3B with mark or 2B with Luis
R Kemp
L Gonzo
R Hanley
L Ethier
R Mark or Cruz
R AJ

this line up will hit double digit HRs everywhere except mark ellis, which could also be replaced with ben zobrist playing 2B and put luis cruz @3B and we have a chavez ravine bombers. crawford may give us 10 and after that, until we hit AJ, it could be 20 or more for everyone while posting good to great OBP.

if guys can get on base at high rate, and hit doubles, triples, and homeruns when they do hit, we will have no worries putting runs on the board, and with the proposed rotation we will surely be in games when we don't score as well.

last thought, we are giving up basically our entire farm for this deal and shields and zobrist are older players.
#1 shields must be signed to at least 3 year extension beyond his last year contract. we seem to be in 'win now' mode anyhow, and i feel with puig ready and kemp still in his prime, we are not in need of any OF prospects any time soon. as i expressed before, i don't see zach joining our rotation soon and his ceiling seems lower than what billingsley's was at the same level, so on paper we maybe losing a lot of bodies, in quality we still keep the prospects we need in seager, puig, and all the remaining pitching.

[Quake Griffin]

of course i am huge on james shields. his advanced stats are right up there with greinke and will come much cheaper, at least the first year. the issue is that he is looking for his payday and good chance he could be a 1 year rental as his FA year is coming up, he could also potentially want to be the man rather than a #3 guy on our rotation, but if we can extend him as a contingency as the trade is consummated, in a range of 3 years give him whatever he wants, i am all over it.

i like the fact that you are not including Ethier to a trade to rays for shields as there is no way the rays will take on 17 million a year OF when they can't afford a 9 million a year ace. when i read some of the crap other forums post as trade proposal, i want to tear my hair out. Zach+dee probably won't get the job done as i see them wanting to add more prospects and dump us another salary... what do you say something like

James Shields+ Ben Zobrist for Zach Lee+Dee Gordon+Joc Pederson+Scott Van Slyke+Uribe+cash to pay for uribe's contract?

the reason why the rays would do this, is that this transaction will clear about 15 million off their books while getting a MLB replacement for ben with speedy Dee and Uribe will be coming to them for free as an insurance in case dee doesn't perform. Zach will be their new prize in AA/AAA while they plan on dumping David Price sooner than they would like, and Joc Pederson will answer their LF for the future and Scott Van Slyke to compete for now as desmond jennings has been pitiful for them there. of course we have to give up our best prospects as we are taking their one of top 2 pitchers and hitters each.

on the other hand, we not only get a stud pitcher for our #3 spot but also a great infielder who can play 2B or 3B while hitting a monstrous .848 OPS while hitting from both sides of the plate.

i am not as high on Elvis as he is a infielder version of juan pierre who gets caught stealing 1 out of every 3 attempts, and have absolutely no power as his slugging% makes his OBP% wastes with below average OPS at 91, and that is after improving over the last 3 years... he is cezar izturis at the plate to me.

with the trade i added to your proposal, and without the ranger deal, we would have

Kershaw
Greinke
Shields
Beckett
Ryu
one of harang/lilly/capuano becomes the spot starter

as our rotation and

L Crawford
S Zobrist -3B with mark or 2B with Luis
R Kemp
L Gonzo
R Hanley
L Ethier
R Mark or Cruz
R AJ

this line up will hit double digit HRs everywhere except mark ellis, which could also be replaced with ben zobrist playing 2B and put luis cruz @3B and we have a chavez ravine bombers. crawford may give us 10 and after that, until we hit AJ, it could be 20 or more for everyone while posting good to great OBP.

if guys can get on base at high rate, and hit doubles, triples, and homeruns when they do hit, we will have no worries putting runs on the board, and with the proposed rotation we will surely be in games when we don't score as well.

last thought, we are giving up basically our entire farm for this deal and shields and zobrist are older players.
#1 shields must be signed to at least 3 year extension beyond his last year contract. we seem to be in 'win now' mode anyhow, and i feel with puig ready and kemp still in his prime, we are not in need of any OF prospects any time soon. as i expressed before, i don't see zach joining our rotation soon and his ceiling seems lower than what billingsley's was at the same level, so on paper we maybe losing a lot of bodies, in quality we still keep the prospects we need in seager, puig, and all the remaining pitching.

this deal would mean we have to replace mark with zobrist.
that's a great deal if you ask me.

I'm sure we can assure Shields that being a #1 on a contender is a remote possibility for him....but being a #2 or a #3 on a winner is very possible.
the killer is that him and Kershaw are FAs (well idunno how his team option works if he's traded)...could be FAs at the same time.
Kershaw is gonna get an A-Rod deal...10 years-225/250
And Greinke will be on his monster deal
and Beckett will have the 2014 and 2015 seasons on our books.
plus Ryu.

we could possible have 85-95 mill on our rotation alone trying to keep him long term...i see this guy as a 2 year rental...and someone that we will replace after we use his team option....


but i didn't even think of zobrist....i want a switch bat in our lineup.
but i really really like Mark's glove man....ur gonna have to convince me to get rid of Mark's glove.
i'll have to get back to you on that one...but that's incredibly interesting.
or are u saying put Zobrist at 3rd...and make Luis a bench player?

i'll just have to think about how this will work

[Neddy]

I'm thinking more in line of moving ben to 3rd base if we get him in dodger blue. he is a good fielder with a great frame at 6-3 220 which at least looks like a 3rd baseman than a middle infielder. i know that you are a luis cruz fan, and so am i but i would not feel comfortable going into the season with a career minor leaguer who had a great 1/2 season and even during his great permormance had a hard time taking a walk. guys who hits well and never take walks a prone for atrocious, and i mean absolutely horrid slumps when they can't hit. hitters who gets on base with or without hits weather their slumps with grace. Ben is that guy who has .100 points more OBP than his BA. Cruiz is the other guy, like juan encarnacion, who can NEVER get on base unless they hit, and when these guys go on a 1 for 20 slumps they are total junk. automatic outs...
i would like to see luis play the ultimate utility guy, as our 5th IF who can back up everywhere and still get 300-400 at bats next season. that will be more than enough for him to prove that last season wasn't a fluke and yet still be protected from everyday major league pitchers and scouts from figuring him out, like what happened to dee from 2 seasons ago hitting .300 to last year, when he couldn't even get on base better than .280 and slugged just about the same while barely hitting above .200.
besides, there will always be injuries.

david price is really whom i am interested in trading for, but i don't think we have enough to give to the rays for him. for david and his 3 arbitration years, i would give up the whole farm, plus whatever they ask for. for them to consider trading him because his arbitration will cost them 10 million, they will not be taking any of our high salary guys and if i was the rays GM, no way i give up price for our pile of junk... or so called prospects. we don't have enough prospects in top 100 or that makes peanuts for them to make that happen. puig is owed a major leaguer contract and zach isn't exactly putting on a show at the minors either.

[Quake Griffin]

I'm thinking more in line of moving ben to 3rd base if we get him in dodger blue. he is a good fielder with a great frame at 6-3 220 which at least looks like a 3rd baseman than a middle infielder. i know that you are a luis cruz fan, and so am i but i would not feel comfortable going into the season with a career minor leaguer who had a great 1/2 season and even during his great permormance had a hard time taking a walk. guys who hits well and never take walks a prone for atrocious, and i mean absolutely horrid slumps when they can't hit. hitters who gets on base with or without hits weather their slumps with grace. Ben is that guy who has .100 points more OBP than his BA. Cruiz is the other guy, like juan encarnacion, who can NEVER get on base unless they hit, and when these guys go on a 1 for 20 slumps they are total junk. automatic outs...
i would like to see luis play the ultimate utility guy, as our 5th IF who can back up everywhere and still get 300-400 at bats next season. that will be more than enough for him to prove that last season wasn't a fluke and yet still be protected from everyday major league pitchers and scouts from figuring him out, like what happened to dee from 2 seasons ago hitting .300 to last year, when he couldn't even get on base better than .280 and slugged just about the same while barely hitting above .200.
besides, there will always be injuries.

david price is really whom i am interested in trading for, but i don't think we have enough to give to the rays for him. for david and his 3 arbitration years, i would give up the whole farm, plus whatever they ask for. for them to consider trading him because his arbitration will cost them 10 million, they will not be taking any of our high salary guys and if i was the rays GM, no way i give up price for our pile of junk... or so called prospects. we don't have enough prospects in top 100 or that makes peanuts for them to make that happen. puig is owed a major leaguer contract and zach isn't exactly putting on a show at the minors either.

i like this deal man.

i wish you could give ned a call.
both guys are cheap.
and zobrist gives us a cheap alternative to 3rd while Corey is in the minors.

i think he'll be fast tracked through the minors too.

[Neddy]

i am high on corey as well, hope he doesn't become another andy laroche but somewhat confident that he can be our next ron cey

[Quake Griffin]

welp greinke is almost here

[Marino]

I think it will be:

1. Kershaw
2. Greinke
3. Beckett
4. Sanchez
5. Billingsley

I am not sure if we sign Ryu or not

[Quake Griffin]

bills doesn't have a working elbow.

i want him, cap, harang and Lilly gone...ALL GONE!
and i don't want to pay a bit of their salary....well keep one incase my dream scenario 5 goes down.
getting rid of bills with a bum elbow on the cusp of TJS isn't feasible....but getting rid of those 3 gets rid of greinke's number for the season.


dream scenario being:
kershaw
greinke
shields
beckett
ryu

kershaw is gonna command something like 8/210...something to put him over 200 Ms and to put him over the 25 per range...and should lock him up until his age 34 year....Shields expires in 2014...Beckett 2015

this team should hold us well until it's time for call ups.
all feasible except for my dream of trading for shields....but this team could hold us until the 2014/2015 area were it would be time for changes/ call ups/ moving contracts anyway.

im excited.

[Neddy]

dealine approaching. so what's it gonna be boras? i have read a report from south korean media that ryu was offered 35 million for 6 years, JUST SIGN THE DAMN CONTRACT youngman!

[Neddy]

http://www.mlbinjurynews.com/2012/12/do ... lohse.html

according to jon heyman,

no matter what happens with Ryu & dodgers today at deadline, dont be surprised if dodgers pursue anibal or lohse, too.

kershaw
greinke
lohse or sanchez
ryu
beckett

billingsley/lilly can rehab their way outta LA, and one of cap or harang should be traded. hope to keep harang as our long man/spot starter but cap is a lefty so there are more situations we can use him out of bullpen too.

[Neddy]

just posted this in ryu thread, but he is signed.

@Buster_ESPN #Dodgers and Ryu have verbal agreement. Ryu to take a physical in L.A. on Tuesday, press conference scheduled for Wednesday.
2:21pm - 9 Dec 12


so our rotation now boasts

kershaw-greinke-ryu-beckett with vairous options for the 5th spot.

[Quake Griffin]

why u got ryu over beckett?

he hasn't pitched a game in the MLB.


and yes I'm crazy amped about this.

i WANT shields...but to be honest...we don't NEED shields....i just wanna be hot going into the playoffs and unleash kershaw on these boys....hopefully beckett can turn back the clock and give me one of those 2003 or 2007 playoff performances...his regular season performance means about this much to me (*pinches finger*) if he's not blowing it and staying somewhere from 3.30-3.50 in era.

[Neddy]

that's what dodger brass themselves have projected Ryu to be, behind clear #1-2 punch of Kershaw and Greinke and in front of Beckett and Billingsley. it also gives us a nice L-R-L-R to keep teams off balance game to game. frankly i don't care if beckett is #3. it makes no difference to me.

there are talks all over internet about the buccs trading Joel Hanrahan to us for Caps, and i think that is a great deal for both teams. they need a starter desperately behind burnett and gonzo, and we need to get rid of one of the starters and we get to have a short term contract of one of the better closers in the game today to add to our BP. win-win.

[Quake Griffin]

welp, apparently we didn't have enough to bring in shields.



Can Ryu get into some sort of shape?
step away from the buffet table bro.
get ur jawline back

[Neddy]

ryu has always been a fatboy, consider him a far east version of david wells.

here is a report on ryu from ken gurnick

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25523541&topic_id=40172882


so according to the dodger brass the rotation is

kershaw
greinke
ryu
billingsley
beckett

with lilly, capuano, and harang expendable. i like beckett at 4 spot so if and when billingsley is out for year with TJ one of the 'expendables' can step right in.

[Quake Griffin]

one more thing.

anything on Kershaw's hip?
i know if it's a problem it can bug for a while.
i don't want any excuses this year....i can't have this guy needing surgery at some point during the year.