Official 2014 Offseason Thread

[Neddy]

... first of all, i won't be watching the WS. as sad and depressed i am about the dodgers getting blown out in game 6 and get eliminated, i am glad that we were able to experience this wild ride that was 2013 season. but there just isn't a chance in hell that i can watch the WS this year without men in blue playing on the field.

now that the formalities are out of the way, this is what i look forward to for the 2014 season.

the rise of Puig, and the possibility of his sophomore jinx... if he can repeat his plus.900 OPS for the entire season, we know we have a superstar in our hands in the RF.

the Tanaka watch. current golden eagle in NPB is an undefeated pitcher at age of 24, is available for the right price to negotiate, similar to the way we were able to grab Ryu. on paper he looks like a can't miss superstar, but i am not very high on him as his stuff isn't as good as his japanese stats indicate. his best pitch is a forkball, but i don't see it being better than say, nomo or sasaki. his fastball is nothing to fancy about, but he does have control and a third pitch that is actually usable unlike Nomo who was essentially a two pitch pitcher for the dodgers in the 90s. it will be interesting however.

which of the 4 OFers will Ned trade away?
Kemp has the best value on the market, and will bring back the most return. but he is the only true center fielder we have and for a couple of seasons, the best player on our roster.
Ethier is probably the one to go, and we would have to eat some of his contract, but he is a versatile player that can play all 3 OF positions and gives you a decent power from the left side.
Crawford is the one i wish to get rid of, but he currently has no value on the market and we will probably have to pay for most of his contact to make a deal. we would most likely get no value in return.
puig isn't going anywhere... he is our future especially with his front office friendly contract.

will Ned rush Zach Lee and bring him to the majors next year? i think he needs another season down in the minors while we try out billingsley and beckett one more time as both of their contracts will expire after 2014. hope at least one of them can hold down a spot in the rotation, and pave the way for Lee in 2015.

how much will kershaw get? 30 million a year for 10 years? as much as i think it is a necessity for our team to secure kershaw, the history has never been too kind to big bloated long term contract pitchers. injuries and or decline are inevitable. but right now we need him, as greinke can opt out of his deal after next season.

the rotation... kershaw-greinke-ryu is no brainer, but after that we are filled with question marks. do we resign nolasco? as great as he was for a couple of months after the trade, his career numbers say otherwise. he isn't worth another long term deal to lock up the 4th rotation spot and bury prospects. but Lee should not come up until 2015, and magill/fife aren't good enough for a championship contending team. i highly doubt both of our injured pitchers under contract will be able to come back even at 80% of what they used to. If both billingsley and beckett cannot make a glorious return, we are gonna be very thin on starting pitching next season.

finally, will donnie softballs get his multi-year extension?
no further comment on this matter.......

well, 2013 season is over for us, let the speculation for the 2014 season begin!

[Quake Griffin]

Orders of Business
1. Sign Kershaw
2. Sign Guerrero to replace Ellis (possibly replace Hanley and move Hanley to 2nd???????)
3. Move one of the OF Contracts (Kemp, Crawford, Ethier???)....this move IMO is for #4
4. Call up Joc Pederson so we can cut some of the OF salary...and I don't think this one is close. We have to do it.
5. 4th starter. Is it Chad Billingsley? Is it Beckett? Nolasco and Cap were cool...but we had 0 faith in a 4th starter when it came playoff time. I ultimately think the 3 days rest game eventually caught up with Clay, which is why he didn't have ANYthing in game 6.

Questions for the offseason.
1. the expensive outfield. what do?
2. Would you like to see Kershaw put on an innings limit if we're going to invest 200 million into him? He has a lot of work put on his arm at the young age. It would be terrible if he burned out before 30.
3. Aside from Don Mattingly...are there any big changes you want to make that aren't easily foreseeable? that people would probably hate if you did....sort of like Bill Belichik and Lawyer Milloy.

[Quake Griffin]

wow, i made my offseason thread without seeing this.
our minds are in the same spot.

one thing i brought up though was Kershaw with an innings limit if we're going to invest in him. I'd hate to see him burn out. Projecting us to make the playoffs every year for a while, I don't think him going 250 IP+ a year is going to project well over the life of a potential 10 year deal...given the work load he's already shouldered.

2010 204.1
2011 233.1
2012 227.2
2013 236.0 + 22 or 23 Postseason Innings.

I want to get rid of Kemp's contract. Would a team like Pittsburgh that needs bats take on his salary? What about the Orioles? But they should only be in on pitching and nothing but pitching this offseason. What about the Texas Rangers using him to replace Nelson? But I want either his entire salary gone or 2 teams to take good percentages of his and ethier's deal.

Maybe to the Mets? we take half the deal on and they send us Noah Syndergaard?
Blue Jays? a team that could potentially be in win now mode given their best players are on 30+


and put Joc Pederson into center. I've been following him for about a year now and the reports on him are going from calling him a corner outfielder to saying he might end up playing out in center.

if we sign Kershaw
move Kemp and call up Pederson
and sign A. Guerrero....successful offseason imo.

the Sox found Peavy at the end of the year....we have plenty of time for a 4th starter.

[Neddy]

i think the rangers is a realistic option, they are looking for a power bat in the middle of the order and NEED that bat to be an outfielder. with an emergence of profar, they are also looking to dump one of their infielders. i would prefer ian kinsler, but the name that i see constantly coming up as a trade bait is elvis andrus, their soft hitting SS. of course i wouldn't wan't just another cezar izturis for kemp, a former MVP runner up, i want a few prospects of theirs coming our way. that that list must include joey gallo. a power hitting 6-5 3rd baseman that everything our overhyped corey seager is supposed to be. in fact, i say sell corey high before everybody else figures out he has lower ceiling than even andy laroche.
overall, i still think we are underselling kemp if it's for andrus, gallo, and few other lower level prospects in return, but i would strongly consider if one of those "other" prospects also include either jairo beras and/or jorge alfaro. if we can get both plus gallo i would send corey their way too in a package.

essentially, kemp(and most of his contract) + corey seager
for elvis andrus( just a filler who's' a major leaguer) + joey gallo+jairo beras + jorge alfaro

ethier won't bring us much in return, i would feel extremely lucky if we can get back just 1 prospect for him.



i agree with you 100% that having kershaw pitch 250 innings a season is counterproductive to his soon-to-be contract. just look at whom we compare kershaw to, and see sandy koufax's career. again, this is a result of inept managing of donnie softballs. only after donnie started managing, kershaw started to pitch about 15% more total innings than he should, and surely more than ever before in his life. it looks like as long as donnie is our manager, he will ride kershaw as much and as often as he can. couple that with a 10 year contract, it's not a question of if but when his arm will fall off.

as far as joc pederson replacing kemp at CF, i see no problem defensively, but i see a major hole in the lineup unless joc can get on base. if we are considering trading two outfielders to make room, how about going after shin-soo choo of the cinncinati reds? i know he is a scott boras client but he played CF last season converting from RF and did a pretty good good out there. the key of chasing choo is however, his .423 OBP last year he posted as as lead off, and .389 career OBP tells you last season was no fluke. just think about this. choo got on base a whopping .100 points better than our leadoff, crawford. and we called carl a success. choo also hit mid .800 OPS and 143 OPS+. 21 HRs and 20 SBs are not too shabby and 54 RBI as a leadoff man in national league? again top of the notch stuff. obviously, if we can go after choo to bat leadoff, we should consider keeping ethier who can bat later in the order and try to give away carl. but i wonder if carl's contract is impossible to move.

[Quake Griffin]

you're def selling seager way too low for a left handed Mark Reynolds.

[Neddy]

well first off, HEY KILROY could you merge this thread with the off-season topic thread? thanks

now back to the discussion, i think calling gallo a lefty-mark reynolds is a bit harsh. mark never hit 40 HRs in a year at the minors after all. joey gallo is crushing the cover off the ball in the minors to the bleachers and he is only 19 years old, and plays 3rd base. when gonzo is near retirement and if we still have blossoming corey seager, we can move his 6 foot 5 body to the first base. compare to gallo, our boy corey has been completely baffled by high A level pitching at rancho cucamonga batting a buck sixty in 100 at bats. right now at the same age and at the same level of playing A+ ball, gallo is a head and shoulder above corey seager. even if corey eventually figures out his issues he will never project to be the type of power hitter gallo is.

lastly, i just don't see the rangers trading away a 19 year old who just hit 40 HRs in 111 games this year. but it is fun to ponder.

[Neddy]

we signed Alexander Guerrerro to a 4 year, 28 million dollar deal after all!

now we can decline mark ellis' option and buy him out, unless we want to move guerrero to 3rd base and bring mark back for his glove. if this is the case i sure hope even an idiot like mattingly would stop batting mark ellis second and move him to the 8th spot.

and HEY KILROY i hope you catch one of the two posts i am leaving to merge threads! thanks in advance! go dodgers!!!

[Quake Griffin]

Puig
Guerrero
Crawford
Hanley
A-Gon

Puig
Crawford
Guerrero
Hanley
A-Gon


i mean theres question marks at 3rd and in the OF....so it would be hard to finish.
but for the first 5 in the lineup.
not freakin bad.
just bat AJ 7th if we bring Mark Ellis back...he can handle it.

[Quake Griffin]

Trey Hillman fired.
Advanced Scout Wade Taylor out.

maybe this is the precursor to bye bye Mattingly?

[Neddy]

of course it is, i can't wait to get rid of his moronic ass once and for all. like i said in a different thread, anybody but mattingly.

[Quake Griffin]

LA Media and media in general starting to annoy me talking about the Cardinals and their development system.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/ ... z2iYBBTVGT

So signing a player from overseas to play for our team doesn't make him ours....we're not developing him?
he has to be bought at age 16 and groomed until 21-24?

as if the Cardinals 2 best hitters aren't Holliday and Beltran aka NOT GROOMED IN ST. LOUIS!

[Neddy]

carlos beltran with rib injury in game 1 of the WS, what a poetic justice!!!

[Neddy]

LA Media and media in general starting to annoy me talking about the Cardinals and their development system.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/ ... z2iYBBTVGT

So signing a player from overseas to play for our team doesn't make him ours....we're not developing him?
he has to be bought at age 16 and groomed until 21-24?

as if the Cardinals 2 best hitters aren't Holliday and Beltran aka NOT GROOMED IN ST. LOUIS!

what cardinals are doing now is what dodgers used to do in O'Malley's ownership, invest in the farm and avoid expensive free agents. peter eventually felt that his way was limiting the success of the dodgers, and sold the team to a high budget corporations who can afford the expensive free agents, and after 2 decades we have the guggenheim financial backing the dodgers. when everything is said and done, we are gonna be far more successful than a small market midwestern team, it is just a matter of time.

[Neddy]

after watching tanaka in climax series of japan, i am a bit torn in my view of him. the negative i see is that he still throws a low 90s fastball and a devastating forkball, but that's it. he is a two pitch pitcher in the mold of hideo nomo, and his delivery will surely take a toll on the throwing elbow. he is young now, and he has thrown hard, but this is as best as he will get and will break down in the future. at least that's my opinion anyway. the positive is, that he throw in the mold of hideo nomo. nomo had a wild success early on with just two pitches, a low 90s fastball and a forkball.

[Quake Griffin]

have to see him throw. I like my pitchers to throw a little bit of gas man...94-96.
if not, you gotta have that funky, tricky delivery that lets ur lower 90s FB get up on hitters quick.

I'm still waiting on Bills and Beckett man.
You can make fun of me...but I think they're going to be ok...and worth the gamble/ saving of our money as 4th and 5th starters since 1-3 is locked.

[Neddy]

there are reports out there indicating that Ned is after both Tanaka and Price. that means Zach Lee is surely going to tampa along with one of Joc/Withrow/Seager/17 year old phenom Julio Urias. frankly i do not want to move Julio. this kid at 16 dominated the rookie ball like no other. yes he is small and skinny, but so was pedro martinez that our idiot FO at the time ended up trading away for a 2B who turned out to be a scrub. i think Lee and Seager are whom tampa is after.

Tanaka on the other hand, just ended his winning streak at the game 6 of Japanese version of the World Series, called the Climax Series. the Golden Eagles had him pitch 160 pitches in game 6 and brought him back out to close the game 7 to win their first Japanese title, but i see a bad omen looming with the way the Rakuten Golden Eagles used him down the stretch. his elbow needs an in-depth physical by at least 2 different independent groups.
after all, they are talking about 100 million dollars just to pay off his current team for the right to negotiate.

[Quake Griffin]

$100 Ms? That's too much man.

If we're going to deal with Tampa for Price, I want Zobrist in the deal...but they have a team option for 2015 and he'd be 34 by then. They'd have the bargaining power IMO. But we could honestly leverage it back by saying....look, we're giving you the best deal possible for Price.

the question is who would play 3rd?
Guerrero im guessing and we put Zobrist at 2nd...I dunno if I could deal with him and Hanley being up the middle there.

[Neddy]

$100 Ms? That's too much man.

If we're going to deal with Tampa for Price, I want Zobrist in the deal...but they have a team option for 2015 and he'd be 34 by then. They'd have the bargaining power IMO. But we could honestly leverage it back by saying....look, we're giving you the best deal possible for Price.

the question is who would play 3rd?
Guerrero im guessing and we put Zobrist at 2nd...I dunno if I could deal with him and Hanley being up the middle there.

100 million of course is a guestimation, but everything i read from Asia about tanaka ( you can try yourself to look up any japanese or south korean sports sights and use google/yahoo translation apps ) it looks like 100 million isn't far off the reality. i would love to have him but not at that price, and not after the abuse the rakuten golden eagles put him through. he is spectacular on paper from Japan but not tested here and has potentially a disastrous arm ready to fall off anytime.

rather than gamble on a 100+ million arm from Japan, i think it is wiser to invest 10 million for 3 years for the best closer of the Asia. Oh Seung-Hwan from the Samsung Lions who just won the KBO championship throws 97 mph four seam fastball and 89 mph slider. i have seen him throw 5 innings to close and strike out 12 batters in a row in their championship series and i believe he will be a bargain replacement for brian wilson who will bolt out for a closer gig.

[Quake Griffin]

1) thoughts on Haren?
I like him...he's been one of the more durable pitchers in baseball over the years...consistent as hell. Not to mention, I think his problems in 2012 and the beginning of 2013 had to do with a bad back and not age/ loss of stuff. He turned it on at the end of last year

2) I would love to trade Kemp to Toronto but I know AA won't get hosed in a deal. This is the guy who passed off Vernon Wells to the Angels and made out like a thief in the night.

still would love to do a blockbuster with them.

Lawrie and Rasmus

for
Kemp (and we'll eat half), Seager and Lee.

[Neddy]

1)
if it's for no more than 2 years guaranteed, i like it. even when his ERA was ugly in last couple of seasons, he hasn't pitched poorly at all. his WHIP is still above league average, he doesn't give up walks, so his control is still here. he has given up just 1 more hits per 9 than his career average in that span too, and from what i remember through out the years, his strike out pitch is a splitter, not a high 90s fastball or an elbow breaking slider, so i do think he can age well. coming back home may also help him to settle in better.

if it's a long term, it must be at a 7 digit a year salary and not 8. i can see him aging into middle relief, but i would hate to give him more than what idiot Ned gave brandon league.

2) but... we are trying to dump kemp because we already have 4 OFers as is... why get rasmus back? and his career split against LHP is much, much worse than anyone we already have. otherwise i do like colby. i used to want to make a deal for him a few years ago before kemp's MVP season. nice pop, pretty good glove, good hustle guy.
Lawrie is a nice player, and young one with upside. although you know i am not as high on Corey Seager as you are, i still think Corey has a higher ceiling than Lawrie. since his 150+ OPS+ breakout debut 2 years ago, (albeit, only 150 ABs) brett Lawrie has pretty much recorded about 1 WAR per season. i would rather have us sign uribe for 2 years plus 1 year team option for less than what Ned gave him last time, pencil him in as our 3rd base to start now and be our super utility guy when either corey is ready or we trade for his older brother kyle.

and no way to adding seager and lee to that deal man. kemp is still better than rasmus, lee+seager is better than lawrie alone. and we have to pay half of kemp's contract? that is a bad deal.
if the jays take all of kemp's contract, i would give them one of the two prospects we have along with kemp for that deal plus aaron sanchez in return. he is basically the same player zach lee is but further down the system. lee is much closer to being major leaguer and less of a risk than a high A guy like aaron sanchez but aaron has maybe a higher ceiling if he matures right. right now he pitches alot like zach did a year or two ago.
if we pay close to half of kemp's salary, i want no prospects going their way, and Lawrie plus Sanchez in return. no need for another OFer unless we trade ethier or crawford too.

PS- sorry bro it seems like i am always coming off negatively to your suggestions, but i am just spitting out what comes out of my head as soon as i read your posts. i am as you know, an obsessive baseball fan who crave baseball chat 24/7 365 at all times. and we don't have much discussion going on around here so i go nuts when there is some topic to talk about.