Official 2014 Offseason Thread

[Quake Griffin]

Grand Salami the same day you said it.

well, if his hit tool is ready to go at some point...i want him up.
i want doubles and XBHs.

[Neddy]

looks like the season opener at Sydney Croquet field is gonna be lead by 2 lefties back to back. Kershaw and Ryu seems to be locks. Haren is traveling as an emergency starter but Greinke and Beckett will stay put on state-side.

[Quake Griffin]

I wonder how much of this was Zack Greine moaning about going and how much of this was injury/timing.

This trip really is a thorn in our side and I don't want us to go.
anywho...Oakland went and won their division last year...so...no excuses.

[Neddy]

of course it was about Zach not wanting to go pitch down under and spend more than a full day in a round trip up in the air. but he's got mental issues and there is no reason to push that on him when he have ryu who statistically could be an ace for a dozen or more teams in the majors willing to fly down there and show the world what he can do in Zach's place. being our #2 starter again to start the season in only 2 years he has pitched here also won't be any negative to his native country's media either. I am far more worried about our position players tho. looks like Kemp and Either are both still ailing, and crawford hasn't healed from his leg injury either. are we starting the season in Sydney with Van Slyke, Joc, and Puig in the outfield? is Dee our 2nd base? if so is he batting #8, or #2 behind Puig if Crawford can't go? we are potentially looking at

Puig
Dee
Hanley
Gonzo
Uribe
Van Slyke
Joc
AJ

this doesn't look right to me. we would be better off going

Dee
Puig
Hanley
Gonzo
Van Slyke
Joc
Uribe
AJ
and we would still look half assed.

[Quake Griffin]

of course it was about Zach not wanting to go pitch down under and spend more than a full day in a round trip up in the air. but he's got mental issues and there is no reason to push that on him when he have ryu who statistically could be an ace for a dozen or more teams in the majors willing to fly down there and show the world what he can do in Zach's place. being our #2 starter again to start the season in only 2 years he has pitched here also won't be any negative to his native country's media either. I am far more worried about our position players tho. looks like Kemp and Either are both still ailing, and crawford hasn't healed from his leg injury either. are we starting the season in Sydney with Van Slyke, Joc, and Puig in the outfield? is Dee our 2nd base? if so is he batting #8, or #2 behind Puig if Crawford can't go? we are potentially looking at

Puig
Dee
Hanley
Gonzo
Uribe
Van Slyke
Joc
AJ

this doesn't look right to me. we would be better off going

Dee
Puig
Hanley
Gonzo
Van Slyke
Joc
Uribe
AJ
and we would still look half assed.

I viewed our poor hitting as a function of Hanley not being in the lineup.
When he wasn't there we didn't hit....

so I don't really care about the mix of guys around him as long as Puig and Gonzo are in the lineup....we can make due until everybody else is healthy.


I'm worried about Dee....he's not hitting this spring...so i don't know why we'd put him at the top of the order.

[Neddy]

I viewed our poor hitting as a function of Hanley not being in the lineup.
When he wasn't there we didn't hit....

so I don't really care about the mix of guys around him as long as Puig and Gonzo are in the lineup....we can make due until everybody else is healthy.


I'm worried about Dee....he's not hitting this spring...so i don't know why we'd put him at the top of the order.

good call, putting Dee up first is against everything i believe in SABR, but i can't put him at 2nd and that's what i think Mattingly just might do. Dee at 8th will weaken the entire bottom 1/3 of the order, as AJ's OBP skill set will be compromised by not hitting 8th, Dee can't do much at 8th, and the pitcher coming up at 9th. at least if Donny puts Dee up leading off, in a miraculous event that he gets on base, chances of him seeing home plate is great if we have Puig-Hanley-Gonzo-SVS-Joc coming up behind him.

in an essence, with the injury problem we have with our position players, i prefer to bunch up Puig - Hanley - Gonzo together to maximize. frankly, batting them 3-4-5 would be fitting in classical sense, but 2-3-4 is more efficient in SABR sense.

[Quake Griffin]

http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/dod ... y-at-third

well...this means we can trade Seager?
trade Guerrero and put Seager in at 2nd when he comes up

[Neddy]

i don't think we can make any conclusion from that at all. it could be just smokes and mirror talk to keep Hanley interested and motivated this upcoming season, and until we have that contract extension there is no guarantee that he would be our 3rd baseman. hell if Seager works out beyond any expectations this year, we can potentially move Hanley to first. he is tall enough to cover. we may eventually find a trade partner to dump Crawford and Ethier, and move Hanley out to LF. Or we may not expend him beyond this season if he spends another 80 games on DL.

but if we do sign Hanley to an extension, i can see us trading both Seager and Lee away for an established starting pitcher, in case Greinke opts out.

[Quake Griffin]

i don't think we can make any conclusion from that at all. it could be just smokes and mirror talk to keep Hanley interested and motivated this upcoming season, and until we have that contract extension there is no guarantee that he would be our 3rd baseman. hell if Seager works out beyond any expectations this year, we can potentially move Hanley to first. he is tall enough to cover. we may eventually find a trade partner to dump Crawford and Ethier, and move Hanley out to LF. Or we may not expend him beyond this season if he spends another 80 games on DL.

but if we do sign Hanley to an extension, i can see us trading both Seager and Lee away for an established starting pitcher, in case Greinke opts out.

i don't like moving Hanley to 1st.
I expect Gonzo to be good for his entire contract.
Good 1B defense....left hand bat...good splits on L/R pitching. He's not the best 1B in the game but he's very valuable.

i just don't wanna see this guy Hanley sucking at 3rd.
but if we do put him there we have no choice but to trade Seager...
Arrabena means SS will be on lock.
but depending on how high we are on Seager....I might consider moving A. Guerrero and hoping Seager can become the new Chase Utley.

has there ever been a 6'4" 2nd baseman?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/more-2b3b-stuff/
^
something random I googled about the height of 2nd basemen.

[Neddy]

matt carpenter of the cardinals. he is 6-3, i believe.

[Quake Griffin]

yea, now he's gonna be a 3B after a good start at 2nd.

well...it's clear we're gonna have to shake something up in the upcoming future.
and I'm gonna be hurt when someone leaves. smh.

[Neddy]

if that someone is named Beckett, Crawford, Ethier, or Kemp i won't be sorry.

Beckett is done.

Crawford was an all-around athlete who's game was based on his youthful athleticism rather than a skill set. he isn't youthful anymore.

Ethier seems to have lost all his power, suspicious of a steroid use along with Kemp. i cannot recall another player that lost 90 points of slugging percentage from age 25 to 31. that is a rapid decline, unless from the steroid era.

then comes Kemp. little doubt in my mind that he is no better than Braun. he just didn't get caught. but the price he is paying, a micro fracture of an ankle, along with a series of injuries other than his clavicle for running into the outfield wall, seems very un-baseball like. let's be real. Bison had 1 great season. that's it. and that was his contract year.

mostly, my problem is that their contracts don't end until 2018.

[Kilroy]

I agree with the steroid concern... It definitely seems fishy how Ethier and Kemp seem to have fallen off a cliff... Kemp may not have been that good to begin with like you say, but still.

You really think Crawford is done? I thought he was still showing flashes of something special.

Beckett does seem done though...

I wonder if some of what we're seeing also isn't a result of the new ownership and the rapid increase in relative talent on the team. It's like the Lakers right now... Some of these guys were being showcased because they were all we had... Now we have better guys...

[Quake Griffin]

i truly don't mind the way Crawford plays....but his salary and the stigma that has come with it means he'll never be good enough unless he has a Barry Bonds season

I'm over complaining about Crawford because that same stigma is why we'll never be able to deal him. But people like Neddy wont ever let it go.

the reality is...we're going to pay Crawford for a few years where he's doing absolutely nothing for us. By nothing, I mean not in the field for us....by 35 or so he's gonna get old, stink, bat will be slow and wont be faster than league average (he still is imo) and we will designate him for assignment.


Kemp and Ethier can still be moved imo.
in a perfect world we get rid of all 3 of them sooner rather than later.
we put Hanley in left field. he could suck fielding but crush the ball like Matt Holliday...we'll be fine in CF and RF with Joc and Puig.

our lineup would still be dope and we'd have the sexiest options for IF
Uribe/ Seager
Arrabuena
Guerrero/ Dee
A-Gon

nothing is getting past that infield.
our lineup would have our big 3 (Puig, A-Gon and Hanley) with potential good bats coming in from Seager, Joc and Guerrero.

[Neddy]

I agree with the steroid concern... It definitely seems fishy how Ethier and Kemp seem to have fallen off a cliff... Kemp may not have been that good to begin with like you say, but still.

You really think Crawford is done? I thought he was still showing flashes of something special.

Beckett does seem done though...

I wonder if some of what we're seeing also isn't a result of the new ownership and the rapid increase in relative talent on the team. It's like the Lakers right now... Some of these guys were being showcased because they were all we had... Now we have better guys...

well maybe saying crawford is done isn't being very specific. he is done being special. he is now in a constant phase where he averages his career numbers until the inevitable decline. his career OPS+ is 105. that is 5 point above the league average for his career. he registered back to back 108 seasons after a below average season. yes he is coming back from an injury, but his career slugging is at .439 with .332 obp. he only came close to slugging .500 once in his career, so it's not like he ever was a power hitter with a potential to regain his lost power. his OBP isn't anything special to make him impervious to his dropping slugging % that was never all that to begin with. crawford at best right now, at his age to me is what brett butler was between the ages of 35 to 38 and that is not very good especially considering what we are paying him.

remember, a healthier, consistently playing crawford registered less OPS+ than disappointing Ethier. down right piss poor performance by injury riddled Kemp still had comparable season, advanced stat-wise to crawford. munch on that for a minute. they are all getting paid pretty similar.

[Neddy]

i truly don't mind the way Crawford plays....but his salary and the stigma that has come with it means he'll never be good enough unless he has a Barry Bonds season

I'm over complaining about Crawford because that same stigma is why we'll never be able to deal him. But people like Neddy wont ever let it go.

the reality is...we're going to pay Crawford for a few years where he's doing absolutely nothing for us. By nothing, I mean not in the field for us....by 35 or so he's gonna get old, stink, bat will be slow and wont be faster than league average (he still is imo) and we will designate him for assignment.


Kemp and Ethier can still be moved imo.
in a perfect world we get rid of all 3 of them sooner rather than later.
we put Hanley in left field. he could suck fielding but crush the ball like Matt Holliday...we'll be fine in CF and RF with Joc and Puig.

our lineup would still be dope and we'd have the sexiest options for IF
Uribe/ Seager
Arrabuena
Guerrero/ Dee
A-Gon

nothing is getting past that infield.
our lineup would have our big 3 (Puig, A-Gon and Hanley) with potential good bats coming in from Seager, Joc and Guerrero.

i see a glaring hole in that infield right away on second base. expect jose offerman like error totals every season.
A gon won't be a gold glover in his twilight years.
i expect the left side of the infield to be superb on defense. i don't see the same with the right side.

[Kilroy]

I agree with the steroid concern... It definitely seems fishy how Ethier and Kemp seem to have fallen off a cliff... Kemp may not have been that good to begin with like you say, but still.

You really think Crawford is done? I thought he was still showing flashes of something special.

Beckett does seem done though...

I wonder if some of what we're seeing also isn't a result of the new ownership and the rapid increase in relative talent on the team. It's like the Lakers right now... Some of these guys were being showcased because they were all we had... Now we have better guys...

well maybe saying crawford is done isn't being very specific. he is done being special. he is now in a constant phase where he averages his career numbers until the inevitable decline. his career OPS+ is 105. that is 5 point above the league average for his career. he registered back to back 108 seasons after a below average season. yes he is coming back from an injury, but his career slugging is at .439 with .332 obp. he only came close to slugging .500 once in his career, so it's not like he ever was a power hitter with a potential to regain his lost power. his OBP isn't anything special to make him impervious to his dropping slugging % that was never all that to begin with. crawford at best right now, at his age to me is what brett butler was between the ages of 35 to 38 and that is not very good especially considering what we are paying him.

remember, a healthier, consistently playing crawford registered less OPS+ than disappointing Ethier. down right piss poor performance by injury riddled Kemp still had comparable season, advanced stat-wise to crawford. munch on that for a minute. they are all getting paid pretty similar.

Yeah, they're all financially not worth it... I think Kemp may never be worth it again, and Ethier seems to have left that tax bracket too... Maybe you're right and Crawford never belonged there.

Regardless, we don't really need them now like you say. Kemp specifically is a huge distraction... "Is he coming back? Is he hurt again? What will the Dodgers be like when Kemp gets healthy?"

It'd be nice to be rid of that.

[Neddy]

just consider, in a fantasy world where we have gotten rid of Kemp, Ethier, and Crawford and all of their salaries, that we can sport

Hanley at LF
Joc at CF
Puig at RF
Seager at 3B
Arruebarruena at SS
Guerrero at 2B
Gonzo at 1B
AJ at C
Dee and Turner as our utility players
Van Slyke as our power hitting pinch hitter

we can buy a pair of Greinkes to add to our rotation and not even flinch at our payroll.

[Kilroy]

Time to lock this bitch up! Welcome to the 2014 Dogers season... Let's hope it's a long one.