RealGM

one of my favorite sites of baseball stats and projections is FanGraphs.com. it uses a bit more sophisticated mathematics than say, baseball-reference.com which does a good job with raw data entry and usage of conventional stats of both traditional and basic advanced metrics, but as most baseball fans who embrace stat-geek approach to appreciate the game, there comes a point in time when baseball-reference.com falls short on applications of the metrics and understanding of what stats to use and how to use them correctly to gage better comparisons or in this case, projections. they also include several other baseball statistics sites' projections along with theirs, make things even more in perspective.

anywho, not saying this is some sort of "know it all" or a "prediction" but a fun way to keep things interested and in perspective... and make some educated guesses of how our guys might do in upcoming season... that is all.

so, without further ado,

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.as ... &players=0
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.as ... &players=0

Kershaw 17-7 2.39 233inns 1.01whip 2.60fip 5.7war
Greinke 15-7 3.09 204 1.17 3.13 3.6
Ryu 13-8 3.44 197 1.28 3.41 2.7
Haren 11-10 3.88 156 1.17 3.64 1.8
Maholm 9-9 4.29 144 1.36 3.95 1.5
Beckett 7-6 4.49 106 1.29 4.23 0.2

Jensen 4-3 2.25 41sv 0.93 2.09 1.4
Wilson 3-3 3.35 7sv 1.24 3.42 0.4
Paco 3-1 2.91 1 1.22 3.22 0.4
Perez 3-1 3.30 1.25 3.60 0.0
Howell 3-2 3.50 2 1.33 3.63 0.0
Withrow 2-1 3.34 1.31 3.55 0.0
League 2-1 3.58 1.33 3.62 0.0
Wright 4-2 3.25 3 1.29 3.36 0.1


keep in mind, these figures tend to be on conservative side and i used fangraphs first then subbed in steamer's projection for players missing in fans.

Can't wait for the season to start. Maholm may end up being a very good pick up for the Dodgers. Rather see him over Beckett.

between maholm, beckett, and billingsley, they should keep that 5th starter seat warm until lee, stripling, and urias are ready.

i like where you have mostly everything.

I think Zack will be under 3....i think his numbers are real given our stadium and defense.
I think Paco and Wilson will be 2.50 or lower....i don't expect Paco to give up much this year...


this is all based on how I've scouted them thru BBR and FG in the past.
Clips are on...so I'm not going to scout them and go through all that just at the moment.
but i will.

the Fangraphs site usually shows low projections, definitely on the conservative side. my personal projections/estimates this year goes...


01. SP L Kershaw 20-5 1.90 0.975
02. SP R Greinke 18-7 2.55 1.115
03. SP L Ryu 16-7 2.95 1.195
04. SP R Haren 12-11 3.91 1.250
05. SP L Maholm 10-14 4.25 1.410

maybe hopeful, but i think this is very doable. we can win it all with these guys carrying the team on their shoulders.

wondering if i should think anything of Clayton's spring....

like should i expect a little hangover from game 6 and ST to leak into the season?

doubt it. besides, there is a strong suspicion that the Cards stole the sign for that game 6.