2015 dodgers roster and stat projection thread.

[Neddy]

without any radical trade ins, but with trade outs, this is the template roster and its salary assuming we make a successful trade to rid of Kemp and Crawford, which has been rumored, and only that move accounted for.
the lineup

1. L 2B Dee -------arbitration eligible. probably 1 to 2 mil
2. R RF Puig --------4.5 mil
3. L 1B Gonzo ---- 21 million
4. R LF SVS ----------.5 mil
5. R C Martin ----- estimated 12 mil
6. L CF Joc --------- .5 mil
7. R 3B Uribe ------ 6.5 mil
8. R SS Erisbel ------ 3 mil
-----------------------------that's around 50 for the regulars
Bench
1. L OF Ethier ---- 18 mil
2. R IF Turner ---- arbitration eligible, probably will make 1.5 to 2 mil. say 1.7 and barney gets .8
3. R C AJ ---------- as bad as he has been, Kershaw wants him to stay. arb eligible but can't see a raise. 3.5 mil
4. R Ut Guerrero - 4 mil
5. R Ut Barney --- .5 mil
------------------------------ bench costs 28 million thanks to Ethier. I see him gone but no rumors yet about him.
that brings the total of position players at 78 million dollars.

rotation
1. L Kershaw ------ 30 mil
2. R Greinke ------- 23 mil... this makes Kershaw's deal seem fair.
3. L Ryu ------------- 4.5 mil what a bargain
4. R Haren ---------- 10 Mil could be the prime candidate to be traded to the Angels for Kendrick
5. R Lee -------------- .5 mil I know he bombed at Albuquerque but everybody does. still better than any other.
----------------------------that is 68 million for the starters

bullpen
1. R Jensen -------- arbitration eligible. will make 10 mil easy
2. L JP ---------------- salary goes down next year to 4
3. R Wilson ----------- the first of the dead weight bros at 10
4. R League ---------- another member of the deadweight bros at 9.5
5. L Paco -------------- .5
6. R Frias -------------- .5
7. R Baez -------------- .5
------------------------------- around 35 mil

so the pitchers will cost total 103. add that to the position guys at 78, we meet the Guggenheim's goal and have the total salary of 181.
luckily, we are done paying Andruw Jones, finally. but that money gets evened up by buying out Billingsley's option. so add 3 more million.

now it's 184.

if we can find a way to dispatch League AND Wilson, then we can presumably sign Scherzer. but I can't see for the life of me how we can trade away League AND Wilson at take no salaries back in return.

if maybe easier to find takers for Erisbel and Guerrero, which will lessen the payroll by 7 mil. if we then turn around and get rid of one of the two dead weight bros, we then have room to possibly offer Max his Max deal.

so as of now, looking at the 190 mil payroll goal of the Guggenheim, I see us definitely trading away Kemp and Crawford as as package to shed 40 plus per salary, perhaps to the Yanks or the Mariners.

Signing Martin seems inevitable as our catchers ranked dead last in all categories last season.

and obviously, its a work in progress.

[Neddy]

now if we trade Haren for Kendrick, we actually save a half a mil and replace the 2nd base with the one of the very best at that position.

use Dee as the bait to rid ourselves of say, Wilson, then suddenly we have some breathing room to sign other free agents.

the ultimate Andrew Freidman test, trading Ethier, and his 18 million dollar salary next year, will definitely give us the ability to sign Scherzer.

now suddenly we have

1. L CF Joc --------- his OBP last season at Albuquerque was .435.
2. R 2B Kendrick
3. R RF Puig
4. L 1B Gonzo
5. R LF SVS
6. R C Martin
7. R 3B Uribe
8. R SS Erisbel

so 57 mil here.

1. R IF Turner
2. R Ut Guerrero
3. R C AJ
4. R IF Barney
5. L OF Baxter

now 10.5 here, so position guys at roughly rounding up to 68 mil

1. L Kershaw
2. R Greinke
3. R Scherzer
4. L Ryu
5. R Lee

I think Max will get somewhere in between Greinke and Kershaw, so say 27. that's 85 million on the starters. total comes to 153.

now the pen...

with WIlson gone in a package with Dee, we now have

Jensen
JP
League
Paco
Frias
Baez
Dominguez

25.5 here.

153 + 25.5 = 178.5 and 3 mil of Billinglsey buy out... 181.5

now we have around 8.5 million dollars to pay to facilitate some of the trades mentioned. I think this is still very doable.

[Neddy]

another possibility is to buy out Billingsley then sign him back to a cheap 1 year deal. say 2 mil with incentives to be our #5 pitcher and have Lee get more seasoning in Oklahoma. I like that idea too.

[Neddy]

looks like my estimation of 12 mil per Russell Martin was grossly underestimated. looks like he may get close to 20 per. the Cubs reportedly offered him 16 mil per year for 4 years.

[Neddy]

as for projections, let's start with the starters.
----------ERA---FIP---WHIP----Innings--W-L
1. Kershaw 2.05--1.90---0.900---200 ----20-3
2. Greinke- 3.05--2.95--1.150---200 ----16-8
3. Ryu-----2.75--2.65--1.150---180 ----18-6
4. Haren -- 3.95--4.05--1.175---180 ----12-15
5. Lee ----4.05--3.75---1.355 --150 ----10-11

I think kershaw and greinke will just about match their performance, with some fluctuations on traditional stats while advanced stats stay as they are. Kershaw and Greinke's ERA was better than their respected FIP so i expect both to show slight upwards swing on their ERAs. Ryu on the other end, was a victim of traditional stats betraying him while his FIP was a top notch. I fully expect his ERA to drop next season.

Haren is an enigma. his WHIP is excellent but because he lost his zip on his sinker he is prone to give up home runs and his FIP suffers because there is no defense that can stop a home run. I expect him to be where he is at.

Lee is finally going to pitch out of the high elevation of Albuquerque. I expect him to settle down as he did in 2013 and be league average among starters. 1.355 WHIP is very average. he will probably do better than Haren in traditional stats, although he will look shaky more often.

[Quake Griffin]

damn.

give me a minute to read all this and ill come back with responses.

[Neddy]

now that we know Martin is a bluejay, I need to make my projection of the lineup without him as our catcher.

considering both scenarios of trading for kendrick and without, and also kemp and crawford gone or staying, I will make projection of all of our players playing full season.

[Neddy]

------------BA----OBP----SLG----OPS----HR----SB

Dee Gordon - .275--.320---.375---695-----1-----65
Yasiel Puig -- .305--.390---.480---870-----15----15
Gonzo------ .275--.335---.485 --- 820 ----30----0
Matt Kemp -- .300 --.355 --.510 --- 855 ----35 --- 15
Carl Crawford .295-- .335 -- .430 --- 765 --- 7 ----25
Juan Uribe --- .290 -.335 --- .445 ---780 ----15----0
Andre Ethier-- .270 -.340 --- .405 ---745 --- 15 ---5
AJ Ellis ----- .235 --.340 --- .300 ---- 640 --- 7 --- 0
SVS --------- .270 -.380-- .520 ----900 ----35 --- 10
Justin Turner- .275 -- .350 -- .475 --- 825 --- 15 -- 15

remember, this is with an assumption that each player plays a full season worth of at bats.

[Fresh360Waves]

Should the Dodgers try to go after Shields or Santana as the #4 starter? Not sure if you can trust Lee as your #5 starter on a contending team.

[Neddy]

Should the Dodgers try to go after Shields or Santana as the #4 starter? Not sure if you can trust Lee as your #5 starter on a contending team.

i am not predicting Lee to be our 5th starter, but rather just simply projecting him as that's who we have as of right now.

the ideal move would be to dump Kemp and Crawford's salaries to make room for Max Scherzer. we have the pocket and he would love to pitch in NLW. he would then come in as our #2 or #3 starter but i prefer he takes the ball in game #1 of any playoff games he can physically able to start.

just imagine in playoffs,

Scherzer
Kershaw
Greinke
Ryu

R-L-R-L and four great, dominant pitchers.

[Fresh360Waves]

Should the Dodgers try to go after Shields or Santana as the #4 starter? Not sure if you can trust Lee as your #5 starter on a contending team.

i am not predicting Lee to be our 5th starter, but rather just simply projecting him as that's who we have as of right now.

the ideal move would be to dump Kemp and Crawford's salaries to make room for Max Scherzer. we have the pocket and he would love to pitch in NLW. he would then come in as our #2 or #3 starter but i prefer he takes the ball in game #1 of any playoff games he can physically able to start.

just imagine in playoffs,

Scherzer
Kershaw
Greinke
Ryu

R-L-R-L and four great, dominant pitchers.

I get you. The thing is, it sounds like Scherzer wants like a 5 or 6 yr deal. He's already 30 too so the Dodgers have to think about that. I think Kemp could potentially get traded especially since he has the most value out of Ethier and Crawford; he'd probably fetch us a nice return. Seattle has some nice young players and their bullpen is great.

[Neddy]

Should the Dodgers try to go after Shields or Santana as the #4 starter? Not sure if you can trust Lee as your #5 starter on a contending team.

i am not predicting Lee to be our 5th starter, but rather just simply projecting him as that's who we have as of right now.

the ideal move would be to dump Kemp and Crawford's salaries to make room for Max Scherzer. we have the pocket and he would love to pitch in NLW. he would then come in as our #2 or #3 starter but i prefer he takes the ball in game #1 of any playoff games he can physically able to start.

just imagine in playoffs,

Scherzer
Kershaw
Greinke
Ryu

R-L-R-L and four great, dominant pitchers.

I get you. The thing is, it sounds like Scherzer wants like a 5 or 6 yr deal. He's already 30 too so the Dodgers have to think about that. I think Kemp could potentially get traded especially since he has the most value out of Ethier and Crawford; he'd probably fetch us a nice return. Seattle has some nice young players and their bullpen is great.

I would like to package Kemp with Crawford at all costs to make salary dump we desperately need, as the red sox did it to us to win their latest WS.

if we trade Kemp alone, I would expect the returning haul to include Taijuan Walker. this kid is already a dynamite and he will become that right-handed 4th starting pitcher who can dominate at times. he is only 22 so you want longevity and team controlled salary? this is the kid. I would even consider Kemp for Walker straight up, as long as they take on all or most of kemp's salary.

if we keep one from crawford-kemp-ethier trio, I prefer it to be Ethier. he has been a positive influence in the club house despite getting shafted in playing time the most, and most importantly he can back up all 3 OF positions.

also, we do this deal of Kemp for Walker, we must find a sucker GM who will drool over .300BA of Crawford to take on most of his salaries too. this will be a hard sell as all 30 teams nowadays have stat savvy personnel in their front office but all we need is just one "gut" "tools" and "old school" guy making the final decision, still looking at BA as some sort of a apex of player evaluation. too bad Nolan Ryan isn't running the Rangers anymore. we could dump him for Elvis Andrus. they need to make room for Jurickson Profar at SS as they are stacked at middle infield in their organization and doesn't trust Choo to be a full time LF. personally, after his ankle and wrist surgeries that hampered him all season and ending it prematurely last season, Choo Choo train is due for a big come back season next year. I would even trade Choo for Crawford except we have too many outfielders already and need to make room.

[Fresh360Waves]

i am not predicting Lee to be our 5th starter, but rather just simply projecting him as that's who we have as of right now.

the ideal move would be to dump Kemp and Crawford's salaries to make room for Max Scherzer. we have the pocket and he would love to pitch in NLW. he would then come in as our #2 or #3 starter but i prefer he takes the ball in game #1 of any playoff games he can physically able to start.

just imagine in playoffs,

Scherzer
Kershaw
Greinke
Ryu

R-L-R-L and four great, dominant pitchers.

I get you. The thing is, it sounds like Scherzer wants like a 5 or 6 yr deal. He's already 30 too so the Dodgers have to think about that. I think Kemp could potentially get traded especially since he has the most value out of Ethier and Crawford; he'd probably fetch us a nice return. Seattle has some nice young players and their bullpen is great.

I would like to package Kemp with Crawford at all costs to make salary dump we desperately need, as the red sox did it to us to win their latest WS.

if we trade Kemp alone, I would expect the returning haul to include Taijuan Walker. this kid is already a dynamite and he will become that right-handed 4th starting pitcher who can dominate at times. he is only 22 so you want longevity and team controlled salary? this is the kid. I would even consider Kemp for Walker straight up, as long as they take on all or most of kemp's salary.

if we keep one from crawford-kemp-ethier trio, I prefer it to be Ethier. he has been a positive influence in the club house despite getting shafted in playing time the most, and most importantly he can back up all 3 OF positions.

also, we do this deal of Kemp for Walker, we must find a sucker GM who will drool over .300BA of Crawford to take on most of his salaries too. this will be a hard sell as all 30 teams nowadays have stat savvy personnel in their front office but all we need is just one "gut" "tools" and "old school" guy making the final decision, still looking at BA as some sort of a apex of player evaluation. too bad Nolan Ryan isn't running the Rangers anymore. we could dump him for Elvis Andrus. they need to make room for Jurickson Profar at SS as they are stacked at middle infield in their organization and doesn't trust Choo to be a full time LF. personally, after his ankle and wrist surgeries that hampered him all season and ending it prematurely last season, Choo Choo train is due for a big come back season next year. I would even trade Choo for Crawford except we have too many outfielders already and need to make room.

Walker, Brad Miller, and a couple of their relievers for Kemp would be a nice deal for both sides. Miller can hit and has a nice glove at SS. Dodgers knock out three birds w/ one stone in a deal like that. Walker would fill in nice as the #5 starter which we need. Kemp for Andrus + another player possibly would be a nice deal also. The money isn't quite equal but they could make it work. Choo is decent, but like you said, he could potentially have a break out year next year once he's fully healthy. Crawford for Choo straight up wouldn't be too bad either but too many OF's and Joc deserves a spot on the active roster next season.

[Neddy]

I get you. The thing is, it sounds like Scherzer wants like a 5 or 6 yr deal. He's already 30 too so the Dodgers have to think about that. I think Kemp could potentially get traded especially since he has the most value out of Ethier and Crawford; he'd probably fetch us a nice return. Seattle has some nice young players and their bullpen is great.

I would like to package Kemp with Crawford at all costs to make salary dump we desperately need, as the red sox did it to us to win their latest WS.

if we trade Kemp alone, I would expect the returning haul to include Taijuan Walker. this kid is already a dynamite and he will become that right-handed 4th starting pitcher who can dominate at times. he is only 22 so you want longevity and team controlled salary? this is the kid. I would even consider Kemp for Walker straight up, as long as they take on all or most of kemp's salary.

if we keep one from crawford-kemp-ethier trio, I prefer it to be Ethier. he has been a positive influence in the club house despite getting shafted in playing time the most, and most importantly he can back up all 3 OF positions.

also, we do this deal of Kemp for Walker, we must find a sucker GM who will drool over .300BA of Crawford to take on most of his salaries too. this will be a hard sell as all 30 teams nowadays have stat savvy personnel in their front office but all we need is just one "gut" "tools" and "old school" guy making the final decision, still looking at BA as some sort of a apex of player evaluation. too bad Nolan Ryan isn't running the Rangers anymore. we could dump him for Elvis Andrus. they need to make room for Jurickson Profar at SS as they are stacked at middle infield in their organization and doesn't trust Choo to be a full time LF. personally, after his ankle and wrist surgeries that hampered him all season and ending it prematurely last season, Choo Choo train is due for a big come back season next year. I would even trade Choo for Crawford except we have too many outfielders already and need to make room.

Walker, Brad Miller, and a couple of their relievers for Kemp would be a nice deal for both sides. Miller can hit and has a nice glove at SS. Dodgers knock out three birds w/ one stone in a deal like that. Walker would fill in nice as the #5 starter which we need. Kemp for Andrus + another player possibly would be a nice deal also. The money isn't quite equal but they could make it work. Choo is decent, but like you said, he could potentially have a break out year next year once he's fully healthy. Crawford for Choo straight up wouldn't be too bad either but too many OF's and Joc deserves a spot on the active roster next season.

Miller maybe moved anyhow, but I doubt the Mariners would give out a haul if they are asked to take on the entire salary left on Kemp. besides, if Walker comes to join our rotation before the all stars he will win the 4th over Haren easy. I know many mariner fans who doubt Walker's ceiling but he is a top 3 of the rotation material in next 2 years.

[Neddy]

projecting next year's bullpen is getting harder and harder with the front office's willingness to switch parts which i welcome, but as of right now we are at

1. CP R Kenley Jensen
2. SU L JP Howell
3. SU R Joel Peralta
4. SU R Carlos Frias / Chris Withrow
5. MR R Baez / Yimmi Garcia
6. DW R Brandon League*
7. DW R Brian Wilson*

* DW stands for dead weight.

I think Andrew and co are far from done rebelling this bullpen.

[Neddy]

evaluation and projection of Scott Van Slyke
---------------------------------------------------------

I personally think Scott is the most underrated position player under Don Mattingly and his incompetence. Scott has been up in the majors for the last 3 seasons, but negating his 2012 campaign where he got sporadic 54 at bats total, in last two seasons he has managed to hit .807 and .910 OPS respectively. that is 126 then 157 OPS+, consider OPS+ as a baseball hitter's version of IQ test. 100 is the average, and go from there.

the conventional stat lookers overlook Scott with his .240 and .297 BA, and his total home run numbers for two seasons are 18 total. that is 18 for two seasons and they scoff at it. here is the real truth. he hit 18 HRs at 341 total at bats. if you include his 56 at bat season of 2012 where he managed just two HRs, he still has hit a HR per 19.2 at bat in his career.

again, that's under 20 at bats per home run, folks.

let's compare that to our current power righty with 21 million dollar salary, Matt Kemp. in Matt's career, he has hit 182 home runs while recording 4069 total at bats. what does that come out of? 22.35 at bats per.

how about Adrian Gonzalez? 5600 at bats in his career, 262 HRs. that is a home run for every 21.4 at bats.

the hottest name in Dodger lineup, Yasiel Puig? 26.85.

we don't have another hitter in our current roster who hits better long ball per at bat than Scott Van Slyke.
and he is doing this while getting inconsistent at bats, which is the excuse (and reality) for every manager in baseball to keep youngsters down in the minors, for them to hit everyday. vets complain about going into slump when they don't hit everyday, this is why it is so hard and pretty special to find a good professional pinch hitter in baseball.

now for chapter 2,

in what count in baseball do hitters see the fastball the most? and mostly within the strike zone?
it's the 3-2 count when the pitcher can't walk the batter. in every situation of every pitch count last season, SVS' 3-2 at bat BA was .333. this is typically achieved by a fastball hitter.
how about where does his power go? He bats at .582 (BA by location) when the ball is going into the left. so he is a pull hitter. is he only a pull hitter? to the center, .349 and to the opposite, .290.
in fact, his home run spread looks like this. (as well as all of other type of hits he made last season. HRs are the black dots)
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.as ... battedball

it is doubtful that teams would be successful only defending one side of the infield like they do with Gonzo against SVS.

finally, my projection of him assuming he gets a full total at bats between starting at LF and occasionally covering all other OF positions as well as 1B when Gonzo is resting,

in a premise of 600 total at bats in 2015,

BA : 270
OBP: 370
SLG: 510
OPS: .880
OPS+: 140
HR: 33
RBI: ? hard to project this one but probably around 100
BABIP : this is where he would swing back from last season's unsustainable .394, which will lower his regular BA but with his keen eye for the ball and his plate discipline, his OBP won't suffer and neither will his power would disappear anytime soon.
he also recorded 4 SBs last season. given enough at bats, he may get to 10 in 2015.

to conclude, I am making a statistical evidence based case as of why we can let go of some bigger named players and still be fine with SVS as our #2,#3,#4, or #5 batter in the lineup everyday. if we keep Puig, which i think we will, rather than going for Hamel with him, then the ideal lineup to start the front 4, would include Puig as #2, Gonso to split the two righties, then SVS as the clean up. however else anyone would work it, he is a nice hit from #2 through #7 although imo he serves better earlier in the lineup than 6 or 7.

[Quake Griffin]

projecting next year's bullpen is getting harder and harder with the front office's willingness to switch parts which i welcome, but as of right now we are at

1. CP R Kenley Jensen
2. SU L JP Howell
3. SU R Joel Peralta
4. SU R Carlos Frias / Chris Withrow
5. MR R Baez / Yimmi Garcia
6. DW R Brandon League*
7. DW R Brian Wilson*

* DW stands for dead weight.

I think Andrew and co are far from done rebelling this bullpen.

i want one more right hand heater not named League in here.

I love Withrow but he's probably going to miss most of the season.

[Neddy]

projecting next year's bullpen is getting harder and harder with the front office's willingness to switch parts which i welcome, but as of right now we are at

1. CP R Kenley Jensen
2. SU L JP Howell
3. SU R Joel Peralta
4. SU R Carlos Frias / Chris Withrow
5. MR R Baez / Yimmi Garcia
6. DW R Brandon League*
7. DW R Brian Wilson*

* DW stands for dead weight.

I think Andrew and co are far from done rebelling this bullpen.

i want one more right hand heater not named League in here.

I love Withrow but he's probably going to miss most of the season.

the pen is still a work in a progress. we will probably make a couple more moves before it is all done.

I am eyeing Charlie Furbush of the Mariners along with Iwakuma for Kemp and hopefully Carl. to make the salaries work, it works better if they give us Iwakuma plus Rodney, then we eat a half of Crawfod's salary but I don't think the mariners are giving up on two out of their current out fielding trio. I only see Michael Saunders leaving and Kemp going into the RF but if it is only Kemp, it is only fair we get some value back.

[Neddy]

I have been delaying making projections for some time to wait for all the trades to go down, and it seems we are in hog's heaven.

if this alleged Hamels and Rollins for ???? goes down, we would have

Kershaw
Greinke
Hamels
Ryu
McCarty

Jensen
Hatcher
JP
Peralta
NIcasio
League
Wilson


Rollins
Puig
Gonzo
SVS
Kendrick
Uribe
Joc
Grandal

AJ
Barney
Turner
Heisey
possibly Ethier?

[Neddy]

i know things are changing in a hurry, but as of today at 12/11/2014, this is what the steamer is projecting our guys as of now.

remember, the steamers projection is highly conservative and always predict the low end.

also, SVS's numbers are recalculated only in terms of AB and HRs accordingly. nothing else of steamers projection has been altered otherwise.

L 2B Kendrick 9 .275 .323 .397
R RF Puig 23 .294 .372 .490
L 1B Gonzo 24 .280 .340 .461
R LF Van Slyke 20 .239 .324 .406
S SS Rollins 13 .237 .309 .364
R Uribe 11 .253 .297 .385
L CF Joc 20 .250 .300 .400
R Grandal 11 .237 .335 .389
bench
R C Ellis
L OF Ethier
R OF Heisey
R IF Turner
R IF Barney


L Kershaw 2.50 1.03 2.63
R Greinke 3.07 1.12 3.16
L Hamels 3.45 1.16 3.44
L Ryu 3.38 1.17 3.36
R McCarthy 3.51 1.16 3.31
bullpen
R Jensen 2.07 0.97 2.38
L Howell 3.42 1.28 3.56
R Hatcher 3.47 1.23 3.36
R Peralta 2.97 1.13 3.50
R Nicasio 4.01 1.30 4.02
R League 3.88 1.35 3.77
R Wilson 3.51 1.26 3.74