Prospects and trade discussion

[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

Madson is here

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Jim Callis, MLB.com (9/7/18)

SS: Gavin Lux
(Dodgers No. 6 prospect)
A+/AA: .324/.399/.514, 463 AB, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB

The first shortstop selected (20th overall) in the 2016 Draft, Lux struggled at the outset of his first full pro season but rallied with a strong second half and built on that momentum this year. He ranked in the top three in the high Class A California League in hitting, slugging, OBP and OPS (.916) at age 20, then posted similar numbers during the final month in Double-A.

MLB Pipeline's Prospect Team of the Year

[Quake Griffin]

GO GAVIN!!!!!111

[Quake Griffin]

Is Jeren Kendall a bust?

His bat should be further along than it is right now

[Neddy]

I just haven't seen any Lux vids over a year, I admit. but last year's vids were terrible. his coordinations were wrong, his anticipations were wrong, it was a real disappointment to see that raw of a prospect for the first rounder. I thought he could easily be had in second, if not further down the line.

but I do think Jeren's bust potential is also glowing-red hot. the hardest skill to teach, and often even discussed as an innate ability, is to take pitches and not strike out all the effing time. his tools are Rickey Henderson Jr, but his brain could be closer to a poor man's Andy Van Slyke with Adam Dunn tendencies in the box. we have't had a sure-thing prospect in top 2-3 rounds for awhile. everyone seems to come with a certain flaw that may or may not be coachable. the last prospects I felt was was can't miss, once-in-a-generation talent was Urias and he wasn't even actually drafted. before that was Kershaw. damn those shoulder injuries anywayz... hopefully he becomes what I thought he was destined to be. be the second consecutive dodger pitcher to beat shoulder injury/surgery and come back as good as ever following Ryu.

[Quake Griffin]

He would not have made it to our 2nd round pick. The question was would he have made it to our compensatory picks....32 and 36*.

If you hated the pick at the time, he certainly would have made it to 32 or 36.
If you're indifferent, you realize there's a chance he might not have.

"He was ranked No. 36 by Baseball America, No. 32 by Baseball Prospectus, No. 29 by ESPN, No. 33 by MLB.com and No. 66 by Perfect Game. It was a bit of an overdraft, but not by a lot."

___________________
I don't think e've really been in the position to draft that can't miss, Kershaw/Jose Fernandez type of pitcher or player in the last 5-6 years.

What about Seager? We knew he'd be a stud from the outset and he delivered from day one and was always a top prospect.

[Neddy]

He would not have made it to our 2nd round pick. The question was would he have made it to our compensatory picks....32 and 36*.

If you hated the pick at the time, he certainly would have made it to 32 or 36.
If you're indifferent, you realize there's a chance he might not have.

"He was ranked No. 36 by Baseball America, No. 32 by Baseball Prospectus, No. 29 by ESPN, No. 33 by MLB.com and No. 66 by Perfect Game. It was a bit of an overdraft, but not by a lot."

___________________
I don't think e've really been in the position to draft that can't miss, Kershaw/Jose Fernandez type of pitcher or player in the last 5-6 years.

What about Seager? We knew he'd be a stud from the outset and he delivered from day one and was always a top prospect.

yeah but the main reason why we drafted this guy was precisely because even Lux himself didn't think he would go that high, and signed on rather quick, and economically sensible for the dodgers. there were better defensive SS in the draft too, but we wanted Corey Seager - like big guy who is already a fluid defender at SS at young age, probably hoping that translates into his older years by moving over to 3rd or 1st. but the main reason for wanting a bigger middle infielder is the offensive potential and also prospect of sending a failed infielder out is much easier than bringing in failed outfielder in.

but maybe I didn't give him enough chance once the disappointment settled in after seeing his mechanics be all over the place early on. like I said, young big kids with already good defensive ability to be a SS at 6-4, the flexibility of position changes coined with his offensive potential is a huge advantage over guys like say, your classic all glove no bat SS like Delvin Perez who got drafted right after Lux. there isn't much you can do with him but go all in for SS. if he fails to reach the majors, the organization has failed since this kid probably does not have the offensive ceiling to move him anywhere else and be ok.

[Neddy]

I am usually very positive with pitchers coming from Asia, but Yusei Kikuchi of Seibu Lions may need to be evaluated very, very carefully from medical stand point. every asian baseball discussion forums I go into in their countries, fans from both nations are talking about how he is suffering from a sort of a 'dead arm' and nobody is sure how to fix it.

one rumor has it that Yusei's unsound mechanics have led to overuse and over compensation and with his generously measured 6 foot frame, has led to major slowing down of his fastball this season, which led to dramatic fluctuations of his stats across the board, and very noticeable drop in velocity. and just like Lincecum, he may mot be able to recover, which is the reason why the Lions who won their first league championship in more than a decade, is willing to post their ace early.

another rumor states he might be hiding injury, which is possible but not sure how credible this one is.

simple, classic case of over-use since mid-teen til now non-stop, is probably the cause. the Japanese way of "muscles only get stronger more you use it" idiocy still rules the land of the rising sun.

either way, Kikuchi was a blow out talent, 2 years ago. at 5-11 (6 feet with spikes on), throwing Kershaw-esque slider with 98 mph fastball with control, he was the best pitcher in Japan then ( remember, Otani was hurt that season and barely pitched, mostly DHed) but now? it is arguable that he is not even among the top 10 starters.

[Neddy]

okay, I finally did some video watching of Gavin Lux in 2018 in A ball.


I still do not like his mechanics of throwing motions on D, at SS. he relies too much on his arm and shoulder and does not put in his lower body as well as he should at this level.

I do love that he changed his long swing. it is still too long, especially for a SS, but I like the fact that now with his old toe-tap he used as a timing mechanism is now a full on 4 to 6 inches front foot lift with a much better weight transfer.

I do not see a superstardom swing, sorry. he aint no Shawn Green, no Gary Sheffield, not your everyday Seager... any Seager. but I do see a kid who has improved from a year ago, when I last evaluated his videos. he is still very young, and theoretically still can grow by leaps and bounds...

I do just want to add, his sudden rise of BA in A ball and AA ball this year after struggling in R and lower A a year before, you guys might wanna take a look at his BABIP. it is directly reflective, and analogue to.... you know what.

[Neddy]

did some video watching on Josiah Gray...

it was a bit funny, he has that same toe tap and pitching motion as Ismael Valdez, has the fastball swag of Chan Ho Park, and the same lack of decent change to make him a starter like Darren Dreifort. watching this one prospect was like taking a time machine back to 1997.