Prospects and trade discussion

[Ranma]

Joe Trezza, MLB.com (9/14/17)

Dodgers
1. Walker Buehler, RHP (MLB No. 12)
2. Alex Verdugo, OF (MLB No. 27)
25. Kyle Farmer, C/3B
Buehler only had five professional innings under his belt a year ago, but he has skyrocketed up the rankings since then. The Vanderbilt alum is expected to help in relief, although his future is certainly as a starter. Meanwhile, while Joc Pederson finished sixth in National League Rookie of the Year Award voting two years ago, Corey Seager won the award last year and Cody Bellinger is the clear favorite this year, the Dodgers are taking the wraps off their candidate for next year with Alex Verdugo getting a callup. Farmer appeared in 12 games with the Dodgers in July and August, mostly as a pinch-hitter. He spent the majority of his campaign at Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .317/.375/.476 between the two stops.

September Callups Roundup

[Ranma]

Jim Callis, MLB.com (9/15/17)

Though it's obvious that Judge and Bellinger are enjoying the best seasons among the current rookie crop, who will have the best long-term career from the Class of 2017? We'll create a lot of angst in New York and Los Angeles by choosing someone else to top our rankings below. (Only players who will have exhausted their rookie eligibility by the end of the year were considered, which is why the likes of Victor Robles and Walker Buehler aren't included.)

2. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Dodgers
Ranks ahead of Judge because he's three years younger, makes more consistent contact and can provide Gold Glove defense at first base or play all three outfield spots.

Ranking the Rookies by Their Long-Term Potential

[Ranma]

He's actually 24th overall now on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 rankings.

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (9/18/17)

Alex Verdugo, OF, Dodgers' No. 2/MLB No. 25
Verdugo began the year at No. 61 on the Top 100 and cemented his place as one of the better pure hitters in the Minors by batting .314 with a .389 OBP in Triple-A this season en route to his first big league callup. Like Urias, he walked (52) more than he struck out (50) this season and has a .305 career average and .362 career OBP in the Minors, not to mention one of the best outfield arms among all prospects.

Hitting Prospects Who Boosted Stock Most in 2017

[Ranma]

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (9/19/17)

Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers No. 1/MLB No. 10
Buehler might have been the first player taken from Vanderbilt in 2015 if he hadn't hurt his elbow. Instead, he saw Dansby Swanson and Carson Fulmer go in the top 10 and ended up sliding to No. 24. He had Tommy John surgery that summer after signing, but was back on the mound less than a year later. In 2017, he put the injury in his rearview mirror, pitching across three levels before getting a big league callup. He's pitching in relief now, but he looks like a frontline starter long-term.

Pitching Prospects Who Increased Stock Most in '17

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[Kilroy]

Impressed with our constant crop of high quality prospects... If nothing else Friedman has taken that system out of the duldrums and into elite status.

And thanks Ranma for keeping the news flowing... We appreciate it.

[Quake Griffin]

Impressed with our constant crop of high quality prospects... If nothing else Friedman has taken that system out of the duldrums and into elite status.

And thanks Ranma for keeping the news flowing... We appreciate it.

It hasn’t always been super popular with the “win now” crowd but I believe he’s dedicated the energy and resources to the right thing.

Funny how when you dedicate resources to building your depth in the minors, you can swing deals for a Yu Darvish without batting an eye.


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[Neddy]

Impressed with our constant crop of high quality prospects... If nothing else Friedman has taken that system out of the duldrums and into elite status.

And thanks Ranma for keeping the news flowing... We appreciate it.

It hasn’t always been super popular with the “win now” crowd but I believe he’s dedicated the energy and resources to the right thing.

Funny how when you dedicate resources to building your depth in the minors, you can swing deals for a Yu Darvish without batting an eye.


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well I can honestly state that we dont have a "win now" crowd around here. we all appreciate the job Andrew and Co has done for our beloved Dodgers.

[Quake Griffin]

Would you guys like to get in front of the Grandal/Pederson thing and deal them this winter????

My thoughts:
With Barnes emerging and Grandal becoming a free agent the winter after next, I think it would be smart to deal Grandal if a) We don't like the value in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft or b) the player we get back is comparable or better to what we would get in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft. Even if the option is b) and the player is comparable, it allows us to unleash Barnes and his full potential. Grandal has the better catcher ERA and IMO works our staff through games better at this point but my guess is that a lot of that is Grandal having the reps/experience that Barnes doesn't. So why continue to hamper Barnes' development in that regard? Let him have at it and figure his way through.

My actual reservations with dumping Grandal and letting Barnes depends take over actually has to do with how well Barnes bat continues to be. If Barnes continues to be a GREAT hitter, then I think we should take into account that he is already 27 (turning 28 this winter) and we may want to preserve his bat and wheels over having him squat every day ala Posey and Mauer. If Will Smith is coming along just fine in the minors, this alleviates some of my concern.

Joc?
Apparently we have our CF now even though he'd be a good fit at 2B as well.
Package him with Grandal?

Just asking as I don't think we necessarily have to wait for Grandal to be an FA, give him the QO, and hope we get a pick out of it.

[Neddy]

with the emergence of not only Barnes, but Farmer with a ton of catching prospects in the minor, trading Grandal is a no brainer. if Joc is a part of that package, I am good with it as long as we get good return from the deal. the problem I see with that is, the teams that desperately need upgrade in catching departments are our rivals, such as the Nats.

teams that have better offensive catcher than Grandal are Giants/Yanks/Marlins/Mariners/Cubs and Orioles

teams that have better defensive catcher than Grandal are Cinn, Angels, and Cardinals.

so 10 teams are out.

Cleveland has Yan Gomes, and with their chemistry, I would say they will not deal. so 11.

teams in rebuild mode probably won't want an allstar level catcher near his free agency. so Padres, Tigers, WhiteSox, Phillies, A's are out. that's now 16.

teams that are not giving up on what they already have, are Mets, Mil, Min, Rockies, Tor, Bos, KCR, Hou. so 24 teams out.

teams that are too cheap to invest in a soon to be free agent who is arbitration eligible... TBR. now 25 teams out.

we have to take ourselves out as well, so 26 teams now out. that leaves

Rangers, DBacks, Nationals, and Braves in the mix for Grandal trade. I would much rather prefer to send him to AL but Rangers have no pieces I would like to have. D backs and Nats are obviously out. so it is the Braves.... but I don't know what we could get for Grandal and Pederson... maybe Kyle Wright and Julio Teheran? LMAO probably not.

[Ranma]

I've been wanting to deal Grandal for a while now, but I've come to appreciate his power and improved pitch calling. His pitch framing is obviously at the top of the game, but Barnes is not bad in that department in his own right even if he is not at Yasmani's level. Barnes also doesn't have as strong an arm or throw base-runners out as well either nor does he exhibit the same amount of power in his bat.

However, like Quake said, Grandal will be a free agent in 2019 after his age 29 season and MLBTradeRumors projects his salary arbitration for 2018 to be $7.7 million for 2018. While that's good value in terms of contract money for a single season from him, I'd prefer to get as much as we can for him in trade assets and dealing him might be selling at his highest point.

I don't want to count on Barnes continuing to hit as well as he has over the majority of his career as a starting MLB catcher, but I have full confidence in him moving forward to handle the role. Add in the fact that he makes relative peanuts ($540,000 for 2017) and is under team control for 5 more seasons and it's obvious that his play would far exceed his salary for the foreseeable future.

Like Neddy said, we have so much catching depth in the developmental pipeline right now that we'll have to make room sooner or later. Keibert Ruiz and and Will Smith headline our backstop prospects but we also drafted Connor Wong, who has a similar profile to Barnes. And that does not include Farmer, who is currently on the postseason roster, or Antonio Cabello, the Venezuelan international prospect currently ranked 8th overall by MLB Pipeline and 15th overall by Baseball America whom the Dodgers are reportedly pursuing as next year's J2 signing.

While I think we'd still need to sign an inexpensive vet backup C for next season since I don't think any of our minor-league catchers will be ready by next season, Smith has a very good chance of making the team in 2019 as a former college prospect. The exciting thing to think about is that any of Ruiz, Smith, or even Cabello has the talent to maybe even push Barnes out of the starting spot in the next few years. Wong should be ready around that time as well and could be a nice utility option for the majors. Farmer could also use a little more seasoning but seems to be close to being ready to handling a big-league role as either a backup or third-string catcher.

I would think that catching would be a premium commodity in demand, but I'll go with Neddy's argument in narrowing down the Braves as the likeliest suitor for his services. That shouldn't be a bad situation for us at all given that the Braves have arguably the best prospects in baseball, but we'll have to see how much of their farm is left after MLB's investigation into their draft and international signings.

I don't really see too many holes on the Dodgers' roster outside of maybe outfield and starting pitching, so I'm inclined to pursue prospects in a trade for Grandal. Quake makes a good point about getting value beyond a 2019 second-round pick since that is what we'd likely get in return as compensation for giving him a qualifying offer and letting him sign with another team as a free agent.

Personally, I have my eyes on Joey Wentz and Kyle Muller as LHP Braves prospects that I want as part of a package in return for trading Grandal. Wentz is currently ranked 8th in the Braves system while Muller is 12th. I don't think we have a realistic shot at Wentz, especially after MLB lays the hammer down post-investigation, but Muller was a guy I wanted the Dodgers to draft after the first round in 2016. Wentz was someone I believe all of us gave serious consideration to in that same draft before we came away with Gavin Lux, Smith, and Jordan Sheffield.

I've been concerned about our lack of LHP prospects in the developmental pipeline after Julio Urias, so getting either Wentz or Muller would address that. Obviously, I want more than either of those 2 pitching prospects in return for Grandal but each holds similar value (actually more) to the aforementioned compensatory pick we'd get if we let Yasmani become a free agent.

Also, clearing Grandal's salary would help towards getting us under the luxury tax threshold in order to avoid dropping 10 spots in the first round of the 2018 MLB Amateur Draft.

[Ranma]

I'm open to trading Joc, but as I've said before, I'm inclined to give him another chance to work with Turner Ward to fix his batting mechanics. However, that doesn't mean that I think he deserves a starting spot in the OF, but this is also problematic since not playing him regularly would likely decrease his trade value even further.

We have 3 more seasons of team control over Pederson and he only counts for $500,445 in adjusted salary for this season's salary cap. I'd like to roll the dice and try to at least push his trade value up rather than trading him for low-level prospects. Then again, that strategy worked out quite well when the front office dealt Zach Lee away for Chris Taylor, but Pederson still has significant upside compared to Lee when he was traded.

[Ranma]

^ha, missed about Harper being right handed person hitting from the left side. well done, my friend. but that sorta strengthened my case for Stanton.

but hey all these ideas are just that, ideas. what actually happens, we can only observe.

True. Us fans are mere spectators, but I like your ideas. You also never know, there might be something a media member comes across and relays to the front office if it's appealing enough.

Like I said, I'm not against going after Stanton and Yelich, but I think the timing is not quite right at this point. Of course, if we make such a deal, I doubt I'm going to be up in arms about it unless the trade cost was really high and we'd be paying the entirety of Stanton's contract.

I'd like to revisit this next off-season.

I previously stated that I wanted to table discussions about trading for Stanton and Yelich until next off-season after Manny Machado and Bryce Harper both hit free agency, but I want to present a proposition that makes for an exception. I want to focus on Stanton since his sizable contract commitment is the center of my previous hesitation to engage in trade discussions with respect to lowering our salary commitments below the luxury tax threshold.

While I still have Manny Machado as my primary concern, Bryce Harper follows closely but Giancarlo Stanton would be be a nice alternative to the current National. I'd consider trading for Stanton's long-term salary commitment this off-season only if Miami is willing to swallow the short-term salaries of Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Kazmir. We might need to add more salaries from the Dodgers' side so Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Yasiel Puig would all also be in play. Basically, I'm willing to take on Stanton's monster contract and trade some prospects as long as the Marlins are willing to eat enough salary in order for us to avoid surrendering draft position.

I'm not sure what it'd take to get Stanton in terms of prospects, but I would avoid offering Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Jeren Kendall, and Mitchell White. Yadier Alvarez is not exactly off-limits now but I'd still be reluctant to part with him.

With Marcell Ozuna eligible for arbitration, there's less of an urgency for Derek Jeter to deal him away but Christian Yelich and Stanton presumably will be dealt this winter along with former Dodger Dee Gordon, so Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson could hold some appeal. I would think Alex Verdugo would as well. Puig's Cuban roots makes him an attraction for the Miami area but he'd be a headache for Don Mattingly, who has 2 years left on his contract. Jeter might have another person in mind for the managerial position or bide his time for a better candidate to become available.

Maybe Gavin Lux might even hold some appeal as Gordon's eventual replacement at 2B if not at SS. I'm guessing Miami is also interested in our catching prospects.

In any case, my first pass at a trade proposal would be A-Gon, Kazmir, Puig, Verdugo, Ross Stripling, and Brock Stewart for Stanton. The Marlins may prefer a prospect over Puig, so maybe Yusniel Diaz would make more sense and I'm sure that the Marlins want more in return, especially with regards to top-level prospects, so I'd probably give up either Alvarez or Buehler to make a deal happen, if push came to shove.

Anyway, I'm curious what your thoughts are for a more realistic trade package, Neddy, with the idea of throwing in short-term salary commitments as a trade-off for long-term commitments.

[Quake Griffin]

Wait.
You guys are actually interested in taking on that mammoth contract given this guys' propensity to get injured?

Why would we marry ourself to a deal that is certain to be terrible when we're almost out of cap hell with Crawford, A-Gon, Ethier etc. etc.???

This guy is signed through his age 38 season with an option for his age 39 season.
He's going to be a super thorn in our side when it's time to pay Seager and Bellinger alone.

Nothnx....nothnx at all.
Stay away from my team.

[Neddy]

Wait.
You guys are actually interested in taking on that mammoth contract given this guys' propensity to get injured?

Why would we marry ourself to a deal that is certain to be terrible when we're almost out of cap hell with Crawford, A-Gon, Ethier etc. etc.???

This guy is signed through his age 38 season with an option for his age 39 season.
He's going to be a super thorn in our side when it's time to pay Seager and Bellinger alone.

Nothnx....nothnx at all.
Stay away from my team.

that thought was made with the idea that his contract will be less than the sum of Gonzo+Ethier+Crawford+Arruenabaerra(sp)-etc deals that are dead money practically for us, but also with an assumption on my part that our current roster may not have enough firepower. but so far, we made it into the NLCS without a single loss, so let's see. if the current roster can win it all, and it isn't just dominant pitchers that got us there like 88, then yeah, we probably do not need to take that on.

but the idea was also with the premise of us needing an upgrade at CF. it was for both GianCarlo AND Yellich. from a short term view, Christian's lowly contract makes it palatable to take on Stanton's deal.

the second idea was that his contract, by the end of it, may be a bargain compared to what the future contracts may look like.

[Ranma]

Wait.
You guys are actually interested in taking on that mammoth contract given this guys' propensity to get injured?

Why would we marry ourself to a deal that is certain to be terrible when we're almost out of cap hell with Crawford, A-Gon, Ethier etc. etc.???

This guy is signed through his age 38 season with an option for his age 39 season.
He's going to be a super thorn in our side when it's time to pay Seager and Bellinger alone.

Nothnx....nothnx at all.
Stay away from my team.

I was initially against taking on Stanton's massive contract just like you, but I'm growing more open to it. Now I overstepped even my own breaking point by including Buehler in a "push came to shove" scenario, but the idea I have in mind is more of seeing if we can get Stanton without giving up top prospects while also unloading Kazmir and A-Gon's contract to get below the luxury tax for next season.

You're right in that acquiring Stanton's contract only kicks the can down the road to worry about the luxury tax later rather than sooner, but I'm only really open to a deal if Miami is willing to eat our unwanted short-term contracts while not asking for much in return with regard to high-level prospects.

Stanton had a great season just missing 60 home runs, but nobody put a claim on him during the waiver trade deadline. Like I've said before, I'd rather focus on Manny Machado and, to a lesser extent, Bryce Harper as free agents next off-season, but if the Marlins are desperate to make a deal, I'd like to see what we can pull off.

[Ranma]

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