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Draft/ International Signing Day?

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Re: Draft/ International Signing Day? 

Post#321 » by Neddy » Sun Dec 11, 2016 9:50 pm

^we'll see. many reports coming out that the team is providing a lip service, and with the new posting system looming for the oct of 2017, the Fighters are potentially in for a hell of a lot more posting fee by hanging on to him... and knowing Otani can't even be posted before the new agreement due to both countries' leagues still playing ball games, Nippon Ham knows how much they made when Yu was posted and is looking to repeat that rather than 20 million cap off. their best position player Nakata Sho is also fitting their domestic FA after 2017, and without both Sho and Otani, they will go from the top to the very rock bottom in a hurry. 40 to 50 million posting fee would go a long way to remedy their loss of revenue and to spend on future free agents both domestic and international.
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Speculating on the Future of Posting Fees 

Post#322 » by Ranma » Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:26 pm

Neddy wrote:^we'll see. many reports coming out that the team is providing a lip service, and with the new posting system looming for the oct of 2017, the Fighters are potentially in for a hell of a lot more posting fee by hanging on to him... and knowing Otani can't even be posted before the new agreement due to both countries' leagues still playing ball games, Nippon Ham knows how much they made when Yu was posted and is looking to repeat that rather than 20 million cap off. their best position player Nakata Sho is also fitting their domestic FA after 2017, and without both Sho and Otani, they will go from the top to the very rock bottom in a hurry. 40 to 50 million posting fee would go a long way to remedy their loss of revenue and to spend on future free agents both domestic and international.


It sounds like you're reading more news from Japan and Korea than I am, but I find it hard to believe that MLB will authorize increasing the posting fee at all much less from $20 million to $50 million. There's no incentive to do it. Otani has wanted to play in MLB since he was in high school. He'll be over by 2020, if not 2018, regardless of what his NPB team wants. He's already delayed his coming to the US by 5 years and I'm quite certain that he is making the call on when to come over as part of their agreement to convince him to stay.

MLB wants to keep costs down, so why would they want to give more money to Japan, especially when the prevailing sentiment was that the Japanese teams were unfairly being rewarded more than the posted player under the previous posting system? In fact, I find it likelier that the posting fee will be reduced rather than increased, though I think staying at $20 million is the likeliest of outcomes.

Otani, from most accounts, is already inclined to come over after next season and MLB wants to get him sooner rather than later, so I don't see the point of indicating to NPB that the posting fees may increase later on just to complicate matters even further. I don't know anything about Nakata, but he's not going to generate nearly as much interest as Otani. There is much more doubt with Japanese position players than their pitching counterparts as has been shown by the contracts handed out recently to such imports. Plus, he only batted .250 with 25 homeruns as an OF/1B according to Baseball-Reference.com; I doubt any MLB team will post $20 million for the right to negotiate for the services of Nakata.

Like you said, we'll see how things play out, but MLB has already leveraged the position in their favor and I doubt they would negotiate against themselves when there is diminishing returns in terms of attractive players left after Shohei Otani.
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Re: Speculating on the Future of Posting Fees 

Post#323 » by Neddy » Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:47 pm

Ranma wrote:
Neddy wrote:^we'll see. many reports coming out that the team is providing a lip service, and with the new posting system looming for the oct of 2017, the Fighters are potentially in for a hell of a lot more posting fee by hanging on to him... and knowing Otani can't even be posted before the new agreement due to both countries' leagues still playing ball games, Nippon Ham knows how much they made when Yu was posted and is looking to repeat that rather than 20 million cap off. their best position player Nakata Sho is also fitting their domestic FA after 2017, and without both Sho and Otani, they will go from the top to the very rock bottom in a hurry. 40 to 50 million posting fee would go a long way to remedy their loss of revenue and to spend on future free agents both domestic and international.


It sounds like you're reading more news from Japan and Korea than I am, but I find it hard to believe that MLB will authorize increasing the posting fee at all much less from $20 million to $50 million. There's no incentive to do it. Otani has wanted to play in MLB since he was in high school. He'll be over by 2019, if not 2018, regardless of what his NPB team wants. He's already delayed his coming to the US by 5 years and I'm quite certain that he is making the call on when to come over as part of their agreement to convince him to stay.

MLB wants to keep costs down, so why would they want to give more money to Japan, especially when the prevailing sentiment was that the Japanese teams were unfairly being rewarded more than the posted player under the previous posting system? In fact, I find it likelier that the posting fee will be reduced rather than increased, though I think staying at $20 million is the likeliest of outcomes.

Otani, from most accounts, is already inclined to come over next season and MLB wants to get him sooner rather than later, so I don't see the point of indicating to NPB that the posting fees may increase later on just to complicate matters even further. I don't know anything about Nakata, but he's not going to generate nearly as much interest as Otani. There is much more doubt with Japanese position players than their pitching counterparts as has been shown by the contracts handed out recently to such imports. Plus, he only batted .250 with 25 homeruns as an OF/1B according to Baseball-Reference.com; I doubt any MLB team will post $20 million for the right to negotiate for the services of Sho.

Like you said, we'll see how things play out, but MLB has already leveraged the position in their favor and I doubt, they would negotiate against themselves when there is diminishing returns in terms of attractive players after Shohei Otani.


it's not Otani's call. the NPB has its rules, and no matter what Otani really wants, the team can keep him until his 9th season as a property of the Nippon Ham. they are doing their lip service to not appear to be the hinderance to the widlly popular figure in Japanese popular culture today. maybe the fine details on the new CBA could be addressed by you, but from little that I understood, and how the Japanese and Korean media are portraying it as is that if Otani was to come in 2018, or 2019, he becomes bounded by US minor league system of player compensations, and he will need 6 years of service time to be declared a FA. if he gets posted by the team of his dreams, that won't matter but not being arbitrartion eligible and not being able to make money even equal to his NPB pay for the first 3-4 years and only to become a FA at around age 30 to get paid, he would have to be a moron to do so, competitive or not. if i was his father, and this was the exact scenario where my son can earn 2.7 million in 2017, 4 million in 2018, and 6 million in 2019 to gain that over 25 year old age limit to cash in a 100 million dollar deal for 5 years with a MLB club, versus make that 2.7 in 2017, jump over the US to make a half a million for the next 2 seasons and maybe he can be eligible to be a super 2, then get to 2 million at age 26, 4.5 in 2021, more than 6 only after the start of 2022 and he is already 28 and still not a free agent with all the mileage on his shoulder, i would rather tell my son to take a couple of years off from baseball altogether. play 2017, to play golf until he turns 25. it is a complete idiocy otherwise.

the MLB will have to make a change, and yeah as you say MLB have no incentive to raise the posting fee, neither do the Japanese clubs to post their best players. they can simply keep their players, and keep winning. they succumbed to MLB's 20 million cap in the name of their player protection, and to save face to the public. players were getting gauged by posting fees and did not get paid whta they should have, and that there was no competition with the bidding once the posting team was set, allowing teams like the Oakland A's to abuse to system to keep players away from their rivals rather than actually sign the said player. now the NPB can come back and say 20 million posting fee is not economically viable to a player like Otani who makes the ballclub far more in revenues to have him on the club. his jersey sales, boost in ticket sales, but remember, in Japan, the ball club gets a big slice of the advertisement money the player poses for, whether it is TV, radio, magazine, whatever. Nippon Ham is financially better off with him on the club, period. the MLB is the one to make it worthwhile for them to let Otani go.

through and through, unless the new CBA is different in detail than what was implied from the far-east writers and Otani can pulll Nomo and break all rules to come over, I don't see the need from the team's stand point. and now with the financial terms, I don't see the need from the player's representative's side either. maybe the player is really that naive and confident to play here regardless of the circumstances, but if you were a friend, parent, teacher, and especially his agent, and you let him do this and if he was to get inured and loses his career, or his ability to perform at the level he is now, you outta be shot. just because a kid wants to jump through the hoops of fire, you don't let your kid actually try it at home.
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Re: Draft/ International Signing Day? 

Post#324 » by Neddy » Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:55 pm

I guess what I am saying is that if the new CBA allows him to player here at 0.5 mil minimum salary for the his age 24, and 25 season but allow him to earn his true value past age 26 immediately, yeah I guess we can all say the kid has a great heart to follow competition rather than the money. if the CBA is such as implied that he will be bound to a 6 year service time before he can earn his real money, then that is not courage or honor. that is simply being an idiot who is willingly getting taken advantage of, among all things a foreign billionaire baseball team ownership. that is an utter stupidity.

remember, most Japanese and Korean pitchers break down after season 2. my guess is, if he chooses to come over if the latter situation is the reality for him, there is a great chance he will return home broke, both physically and financially. I would think even the option #1 is a gamble. again, if that was my son, I am keeping him by my countryside until he will properly get compensated. everyone is so worried about being overused in Japan. if you look at Otani's career season by season stats, I don't think he can be given any easier work load here. we will break him long before they do.
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The Business of Shohei Otani 

Post#325 » by Ranma » Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:20 am

First, with regards to who's call it is: yes, his NPB team technically has the current authority of whether to post him or not. My argument is that there is an under-the-table understanding that the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters would post Otani whenever he wanted as part of their pitch to convince him to stay. Remember, he was dead set on coming over to the US upon graduating high school and told teams not to draft him. He had all the leverage at the time, so I have to think that he was given that promise along with the sales pitch of playing 2-way baseball in NPB. If they don't follow through on such a presumed promise, then players with such leverage in the future will point to this as teams not living up to their word. I'm not sure if the rules have since been changed to still allow Japanese high-school graduates to come directly over to MLB, but it would still tarnish a team's reputation for any other future scenarios.

Second, I agree with you that from a business perspective, it makes more sense for Otani to wait until 2020 to come over to get the big bucks rather than risk such a huge contract offering by coming over early to satisfy his competitive juices. I'll further acknowledge that I was wrong in thinking that an MLB team can offer him a $6 million/year salary as they can only offer him up to maybe $9 million as a signing bonus while he would be bound to 6 years of service time before he can become an MLB free agent, which would equate to about $1.5 million/year in breaking down his bonus money, not counting arbitration which should increase his salary much further.

Having said that, you pointed out previously that his NPB team would probably be reluctant to pay him the money he deserves. He's not even getting the $4-million high-point next season after winning the MVP award as a 2-way player and instead will receive a raise to $2.37 million for next season. You also pointed out that he doesn't care about money in your anecdote. As an idealistic young man, he may not be as naive this time next year, but I think the priority for him is to prove himself against the best competition in the world. I don't know if his family and advisers are making money a priority since they should be arguing that he should be making more money than he currently is in Japan given his accomplishments, but I suspect he subscribes to Japanese thinking in deferring to seniority and not disrupting the status quo. That mentality further has me believing that it won't be a personal priority for him to make the big bucks even if we have different attitudes here in North America.

Another thing you noted is that his NPB ballclub gets a huge slice of advertisement revenue the player engages in. That would obviously be different here in the US where he could capitalize on endorsement opportunities, especially in locations with a big Japanese population. Like Hyun-jin Ryu, he could still do advertisements for his home country in the offseason and I presume he could pocket that money instead of handing it over to an NPB team he would no longer be playing for.

You're right, he could flame out in MLB and return to NPB with a broken spirit, but he'd come back with the opportunity to earn the same money as he did before playing Nippon Professional Baseball. He wouldn't lose much in that way except for face and he could redeem himself in that league easily with his MLB experience whether he was successful in North America or not.

As I've acknowledged, from a North-American perspective, it doesn't make much sense for him to come over after next season, financially speaking. However, like Kenta Maeda and other recent Pacific-Rim imports, Otani's priority may not be to make as much money as he can as it is to prove himself against top competition and have the MLB experience. Yeah, he would not make nearly as much as Yu Darvish, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Masahiro Tanaka, or even Hiroki Kuroda when they first came over but he'd make more than Takashi Saito. Looking at it another way, he'd be a regular MLB rookie on his entry-level contract equivalent to a first-round pick, which is not exactly a bad situation for a 23-year-old player.

The Dodgers would probably be better off for him not to come over next offseason since we may be restrained by international-signing or even luxury-tax penalties from giving him the absolute most money an MLB team can sign him for. I'm just saying that I would not be surprised to see him follow through on his desire to play Major League Baseball since it has been his priority since his high-school days. Of course, he may easily be convinced to continue playing 2-way baseball in NPB while he waits to be eligible for the huge payday in North America.

Assuming that Japanese high-school graduates are still eligible to directly come over, I think the new CBA basically builds in an incentive for young Japanese players who are considering such an option to basically follow through on such commitment and start developing under MLB instruction rather than toil in NPB for a few years.
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Re: Draft/ International Signing Day? 

Post#326 » by Neddy » Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:48 am

for your first point, no it does really not matter what was said, hands shaken on what verbal promises. I do not believe young Otani has it in his contract to defect to US when he feels he is ready. he is bound by the same contractual language all NPB players are in regard to his free agency or leaving the NPB. there is no exception as far as I know, and I know this because I bought my office 10 years ago with a handshaken agreement from the retiring dentist who was also a fellow ex-government employee just like me, just in a different branch and once the verbally agreed 5 years were up, he decided to renew my lease rather than sell the damn building. unless it is written in the contract, nothing matters and that type of business savvy people taking advantage of naiveness of youth is worse over there. and also, the rules did change since his attempt to sign with us straight out of high school. it is banned officially.

about your second point, yeah not caring about money is real when the difference is say, 2, 3, 4, maybe 5 times. hell depending on the person maybe even 10 times. but a difference between 100 million versus 1.5 is a huge deal. even if he doesn't get that type of money, surely he will get Yu's money. to say 50 million versus 1.5( I am counting his first 3 service years, unless of course he becomes a super 2) is a huge difference. it also matters that when I left the last post about this, I was a happy drunk who was thinking in very ideal terms, and this early morning, was a pissed off drunk who just had an argument with the wife... ( take my advice, Ranma and Quake! don't ever get married. don't have kids. just date and maybe live together but never get bound!!!! of course if my wife sees this post Im a dead man :nonono: ) I can honestly say tho, despite my pessimissm and rage, as a father, I would not let my son choose the option presented as is now that the new CBA just **** Otani. would I be happy if he was to come over in 2017 for that low of a cost, to sport our dodger blue??? hell **** ya!!!! but that's because Otani isn't my son.

lastly, no I don't believe Japanese highschooler can ever come over here anymore. Korean kids still can, but they are highly discouarged as unlike Japan, they have the military duty that is a must and once they skip the KBO and come to USA after high school, they are first of all, banned from coming back to korean league ( I think for 2 years, they must get back into the country and not get another job in baseball overseas for this ban's clock to start) then once back home, when they join the military to do their citizen's duty they are also banned from joining military baseball team or police teams that complete in official minor league matches, which practically saying you are not welcome once you leave. they only encourage korean players to leave after starting their career in KBO, and even if they make it here and be a major leaguer, even then they need to come back to serve the miltary. only way out is to represent the country in a govenment recognized international competition such as the Olympics and WBC and win it to gain exemption. so yeah that's a long shot.

PS- if my tone earlier was offensive, please excuse me. like I said, don't get married. love my wife and kids, we've been together for 24 years now but goddamn it I often wish I lived alone at least once everyday. for every 1 great day, there are 5 so so days and one terrible day. today was that day.
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It's a Dog-Eat-Dog World 

Post#327 » by Ranma » Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:55 am

Sorry to hear about the rough going with your marital life, Neddy. Everything you say makes absolute sense. Business tends to be about one party trying to take advantage of another or otherwise leveraging their position for their own benefit. Hell, we do that with our trade discussions all the time.

I'm really trying not to be naive or expect too much from Shohei Otani, but I have to acknowledge that I've harbored a dream rotation with him, Kershaw, and Urias for the Dodgers for quite some time now. The kid is so likable on top of being supremely talented that I can't help but project my idealistic virtues upon him. Having him in the majors next offseason would be so much better for his development even if it would be a few years early, but like I said before, even if that were the case, the Dodgers may be out of the bidding for him given our current restrictions.

I get that the vultures in Japan aren't inclined to help out the kid, but even in that culture, I still find it hard to see them souring the relationship with their star player since most posted players usually come back to play for their former teams. Would Otani still return to the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters if they reneged on their agreement? Do all Japanese players really just accept that kind of betrayal?

It's not just Shohei who expressed his interest in coming over, but his manager just recently expressed his belief in the same. Not to mention that his own team announced their intentions of posting him next offseason. Sure, things have been complicated by the new CBA, but all of these announcements came right after MLB agreed to the new collective bargaining agreement. I really think it is up to whether Otani wants to take less money as his team seemed fine with posting him before.

Like you said, for his own sake, it would be better for him to wait 3 more seasons to capitalize financially. It would probably serve in the Dodgers' best interest as well, though I'm not entirely sure if and how our international-signing restrictions would apply under the new CBA. I'd have to think our luxury-tax penalties would be easy enough to resolve by this season if we were really committed to it.

In the end, we'll have to wait and see how things play out next offseason as Otani certainly isn't coming over this winter. There's plenty of time for him to have a change of heart or even his team, for that matter.

In any case, I hope things will get better for you in being less stressful in your family life and that those terrible days will be far more infrequent. Hang in there, dear friend.
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Getting Around Circumvention 

Post#328 » by Ranma » Sun Dec 18, 2016 9:17 am

Jiji Press, The-Japan-News.com (12/5/16)
The decision was made during negotiations on contract renewal between Otani, 22, and the Fighters at the team’s office in Sapporo.

“We settled in a way that my wishes were given priority,” Otani said after the talks. “I am grateful for the club’s support.”

For the 2017 season, Otani signed a contract for ¥270 million, up ¥70 million from the preceding season. For a fifth-year player out of high school, the figure matched the record high in Japan marked by pitcher Yu Darvish.

Otani Gets OK for MLB Move After 2017 Season


Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com (12/15/16)
Now, though, with the age of players included in the bonus pool system raised by two years, Otani has two more years where he would be subject to those rules, dramatically cutting the amount he’d be paid. Under the new rules, the largest bonus pool any team will be allocated is $5.75 million; a team can trade for additional signing bonus allocations, up to 60% of their original pool, so the most any team can spend on international free agents in any given year is $9.2 million. That’s the max Otani could receive, and that’s only if he signed with a team that received a “competitive balance” draft pick, so that would limit him to smaller market franchises. If he wanted to sign with one of the major market teams, he’d top out at $7.6 million.
...

The structure of the deal would have to follow other pre-arb extensions, with Otani continuing to be vastly underpaid for the first few years of his MLB service, with all the real money tacked on at the end of the deal in free agent years bought out. But I don’t know that it would be that hard to structure an offer in a way that gave Otani a large financial guarantee while also following in the footsteps of other pre-arb extensions.

For instance, let’s say a team estimates that Otani will make something like $50 million in his three arbitration years — assuming he’s an exceptional talent who creates value on both sides of the ball — so they spread that money out over the first six years of the contract, giving him salaries that go something like $1M, $4M, $8M, $10M, $12M, $15M. Then, the question becomes how much do you value his free agent years at? Given his talent level and the league’s economic situation, I don’t think it’s crazy to put a $50 million valuation on those years; the top free agents now are getting $35M per year, and that’s for older and worse players who only hit or pitch, plus there’s another six years of inflation to account for.

Of course, the team would have to be able to argue that they got enough of a savings to justify the commitment, so maybe you actually pay out those four years at $45 million apiece. That adds another $180 million in cost to the deal, bringing the total for 10 years to $230 million. Toss in the $8 million or so he gets in a signing bonus, and now, Otani’s been guaranteed something not too terribly different than what the expectation of he would get if he weren’t subject to the bonus pools.

MLB’s Other Shohei Otani Problem
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Re: Draft/ International Signing Day? 

Post#329 » by Neddy » Sun Dec 18, 2016 7:05 pm

^maybe this new CBA is a blessing in disguise.

I can't even imagine our rotation of 2018 being Kershaw-Hill-Otani-Urias-(Maeda/Ryu/McCarthy/Kazmir/De Leon/Stewart). that would be like throwing 5 aces to compete every night. closest thing I can recall is Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-Neagle-Millwood and Holladay-Oswalt-Hamels-Blanton-Moyer teams. and ours looks far better... if it can happen.

I actually do think Hill will regress at some point past 2017 season and we may need to place him as a set up man, but we still would be fine with the guys coming up soon.
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Jose Miguel Fernandez Signed (UPDATED) 

Post#330 » by Ranma » Mon Jan 9, 2017 7:28 am

I find this signing to be curious. We passed up on Lourdes Gourriel, Jr. who signed for only 7 years at $21 million and end up signing this guy. I don't remember much about Fernandez other than that I was not high on him back when I was perusing Cubans to sign.

He's supposedly an advanced left-handed bat with maybe some questionable fielding, however, he hasn't played in 2 years due to suspension from his multiple defection attempts. Unlike Tito, Fernandez is thought to be closer to being ready to contribute right away. At the same time, he's being looked at as a possible utility player despite being taken out late in games in favor of defensive replacements during his time with Serie Nacional, I believe.

I'm going to continue beating the drum of my disappointment in passing up Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., especially in light of signing the likes of Yaisel Sierra and now Jose Miguel Fernandez. I was excited to bring aboard Ismael Cruz as our lead international scouting executive, but these moves and lack thereof under his watch have me already questioning his judgment even if the Sierra signing might have been in the works before his official onboarding.

Fernandez is known for hitting for high average and patience at the plate, but isn't projected to provide much power. The Padres were reportedly among the favorites to sign him and the A's expressed interest as well. I hope it's not just a case of just gamesmanship in beating out Logan White for one of his preferred targets.

In any case, the financial details have not been released regarding this particular signing, but I swear, if they give this guy more money than what Tito got overall or even on an AAV-basis, I'm seriously going to lose my ish. Whatever the case, I am a bit troubled that we're signing, drafting, and otherwise acquiring players who can hit at the expense of fielding their position. Names that come to mind are Willie Calhoun, Omar Estevez, Micah Johnson, and now Jose Miguel Fernandez.

Yeah, it's usually easier to develop capable fielders than batters, so I get some of that, but I've really never been a fan of one-dimensional players with maybe a few exceptions. Calhoun at least looks like a tradeable asset while the others seem more trouble than they're worth to develop, but it's a challenge our developmental staff seems to be welcoming.


Edit: JMF reportedly signed for a $200,000 bonus per MLB.com.


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No Otani for WBC 

Post#331 » by Ranma » Sat Feb 4, 2017 6:19 am

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