Draft/ International Signing Day?

[Quake Griffin]

If you can find anything on Omar Estevez lettuce know.

[Ranma]

If you can find anything on Omar Estevez lettuce know.

Will do, but I've never heard of him before. It's interesting to note that we paid over 5 times the amount in signing bonus (not counting tax penalties) for the #3 ranked prospect in Diaz than what the Cubs gave #4 ranked Eddy Julio Martinez. In fact, we paid $6 million for Estevez, which is double what EJM got. I'm all for paying for talent but I want to make sure our valuations are in line with worth and that we're not just outspending other clubs just because we can. I'm fine with Diaz's price even if it's a little expensive. Estevez, being the unknown is a concern, especially since he cost just as much as what the Giants gave Lucius Fox, whom I would think is a better player.

The initial scouting report TrueBlueLA.com cited doesn't sound impressive to me. To be honest, Estevez's potential sounds kind of tepid unless incoming international scout Ismael Cruz is high on him. I'll say he has a good balanced swing in the video below, but that's in batting practice.

Eric Stephen, TrueBlueLA.com (11/22/15)

The second baseman Estevez played for Cocodrilos in Cuba, with Sanchez describing him like so:

Estevez showed above-average power in games and solid raw power in batting practice. He has a muscular body, but he's not too bulky and has been praised for his lateral agility at second base. He doesn't have the strongest arm but shows good actions on defense.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbNPiryWdtc[/youtube]

Dodgers reportedly add Cuban prospects Yusniel Diaz, Omar Estevez

[Ranma]

17-year-old Estevez recently made news as he and 16-year-old Jonatan Machado were recently granted exceptions by the MLB Commissioner's Office for eligibility in this current international signing period despite not filing their paperwork in time. Apparently, Estevez was an up-and-coming 2B prospect in Cuba before he defected. Below are excerpts from a recent Cuban interview he engaged in, which has been translated into English.

Also, another darkhorse candidate who could be suddenly declared eligible is Lazaro Robersy Armenteros Arango a.k.a. "Lazarito". He's generating a lot of buzz due to his physical build as a corner OF who can also play 1B and 3B. The Cubs are thought to have the inside track towards signing him. I don't know enough about him to buy into the hype.


MartinDihigoElMejor2013.Cubava.cu (10/28/15)

Estevez Cuba was part of the teams in the lower categories and emerged as the best second baseman in the last developed Pan American Youth Championship in Mexico, September 2014. At his young age we can say that this is the next prodigy national baseball player . Its versatility, power and speed make him a baseball multiple tools.
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You have impacted the youth age. What do you have to improve to shine at the next level?

I think training hard and with a positive mind like that I can have good results. It is only a matter of focus and struggle to fulfill my dreams.
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Do you think you are not patriots go find another future?

I am a patriot, they do not know. I go because I want to be a baseball player and I want to play in the majors, but Cuba did not change anything.

I agree, which is why I'm asking. Because many believe that you are not patriots. What can you say to that?

First they see the conditions in which we live and the needs that people have. But we all love our land and we will always be Cuban.
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Now that the majors are for you. How did it go in the 'showcase'?

Showcase made a few weeks ago and it went very well thank God. It's super hard to get to the big leagues, but I will fight to fulfill my dream. Nothing is impossible.

Omar Estévez; Nothing is Impossible

[Ranma]

I didn't realize it before but Diaz got practically the same amount as the top-ranked prospect in this international signing period, Yadier Alvarez, whom the Dodgers signed. While I like Diaz, I don't think he has the same upside as Alvarez. Diaz is athletic but also raw. He seems to take awkward routes in the outfield where his athleticism compensates. He'll need refinement both in the field and at the plate, but he has promise and looks like a solid top-20 prospect in the Dodgers system right now. Also, if the Dodgers were to sign Vladimir Gutierrez, he'd have a projected price tag of about $15.75 million based on the current general rankings, which could be different from the Dodgers' own rankings.

Meanwhile, Estevez sounds like he's projecting to be a benchplayer at 2B with an advanced approach at the plate. He doesn't play as good a defense at a premium position like Ronny Brito or Erisbel Arruebarrena do at SS and isn't as promising a hitter as Alex Guerrero was. His youth provides hope for a little more upside but I'm not expecting much out of him. Maybe he can develop similar to former Dodger prospect Joe Thurston a.k.a. Joey Baseball.


Ben Badler, Baseball America (11/22/15)

With a quick righthanded bat, Diaz’s swing can get long and off-balance at times, but he has sharp hand-eye coordination with a line drive, gap-to-gap approach. He never showed much power in Cuba—he didn’t hit any home runs last season—but he has increased his strength since arriving in the Dominican Republic.

Diaz is a plus runner with a solid-average to plus arm and should be able to play center field, the position he played coming up through the Cuban junior leagues, though he played mostly left and right field last season with Yunieski Gurriel playing center field.
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The signing bonus for Diaz is the third-highest ever for a Cuban player subject to the international bonus pools. The Red Sox signed infielder Yoan Moncada for a $31.5 million bonus in March, then the Dodgers signed Cuban righthander Yadier Alvarez for $16 million on July 2.

Dodgers Agree to Sign Cuban Outfielder Yusniel Diaz


Ben Badler, Baseball America (11/22/15)

At around 5-foot-11, 185 pounds, Estevez stands out more for his solid fundamental play than his tools. He’s not particularly athletic or flashy and nothing grades out as plus, with fair bat speed and gap power but a good approach from the right side of the plate and a high baseball IQ.
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“Estevez was kind of under the radar tools-wise, but he can hit,” said one scout. “It’s playable defense and he’s not the most agile guy to be in the middle of the diamond, but he has a polished bat. It’s not an athletic body, it’s not what you get excited about, but the way he recognizes pitches, his approach—you don’t see a lot of kids his age doing that.”

Dodgers Agree to Sign Cuban Second Baseman Omar Estevez

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[Quake Griffin]

I wanna know how much the cost is being passed off on to the fans. If it is, then I have a problem with it, particularly given that a large section of LA can't even watch the damn games.

If it isn't passed on to the fans, go after Vladimir Gutierrez. Get the complete bang for your buck and stack up our farm system.

Man.
The depth of our farm has grown exponentially in the matter of one year man. These guys have been here for ONE YEAR and there's so many more assets that can either grow with us or be used as trade assets.

[Ranma]

I heard they've already raised ticket prices and I believe that will be a trend. However, we'll be prevented from signing anyone for over $300,000 for the next 2 international signing periods, so I guess we can defray the cost of this signing period with those 2. Also, Ismael Cruz, the new international scout hired away from the Blue Jays organization, seems adept at finding some under-the-radar prospects and seems excited about the crop of Latin American talent during that time frame so it looks like we'll be positioned well moving forward in addition to the rapid restocking of the farm system through the Cuban pipeline.

[Quake Griffin]

one more thing.

Watching what Puig has gone through as a professional. It makes me so much happier to know that our new signees from Cuba will have a growing up/ maturation process on American soil before they come up to the big leagues.

Thank goodness because Puig doesnt know a damn thing about professionalism and I hope these kids learn it from rookie ball on up.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

While he's no longer with the organization, I can't help but wonder why he was released by his Winter League club. I suspect injury had to do with this move. Such concerns would reinforce the notion that the Dodgers sold high on this guy before the bottom dropped out after evaluating him during his time with the organization.


Update: Nevermind. Looks like it was planned all along.

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[Ranma]

Badler's theoretical ranking of Funkhouser seems a little high to me. Also, I was against having Sborz developed as a starting pitcher since I viewed him as a polished reliever to be fast-tracked to the big league bullpen, but it sounds like the added exposure will allow him more opportunities to refine his game.

Ben Badler, BaseballAmerica.com (11/30/15)

Dan (Los Angeles): Did Walker Buehler's TJ surgery prevent him from making your list?

Ben Badler: Yes. He’d be at least a couple of spots higher if he were healthy. But we’re talking about a pitcher who’s going to miss the entire 2016 season, then will be on an innings limit in 2017, with the earliest chance for him to contribute at the MLB level being 2018, and we don’t know yet how his stuff will recover from TJ or how he will handle a starter’s workload in pro ball. I went back and forth on how to rank him and Yadier Alvarez, because they both have good stuff but extremely risky profiles, for different reasons. Ultimately I gave the slight edge to the healthy pitcher who’s going to be on the mound in 2016.
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Eric (LA): Had he signed, about where would Kyle Funkhouser have slotted in on your list?

Ben Badler: He would have fit in the 6-8 range.
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Ringo (Octopusses Garden): Are the Dodgers gonna let Josh Sborz start?

Ben Badler: Yes. He’s going to begin next year as a starter. Will that stick long term? My bet is no, but just developing him as a starter gives him more hitters to face and more innings to work on things, especially as he tries to smooth out his delivery to make it more repeatable so he can have better command, and to use his changeup more than he would in a one-inning relief stint.

Dave (New York City): What do you and the Dodgers hear about Walker Buehler's recovery and timeline after his TJS? Were they aware of the possible need for surgery when they drafted him, or did this come as a surprise after his physical? Given his health risk, does he make the Dodgers' Top 20?

Ben Badler: I don’t think they knew he was going to have Tommy John surgery, but I don’t think it came as a complete shock either given the elbow soreness he had during his junior season and that something appeared to be off when he was on the mound. Still a good prospect and TJ has a good success rate, but we’re going to have to see how the stuff looks when he comes back. Sounds like the goal is to get him back on the mound for instructs next year after the season ends.

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Prospects Chat

[Ranma]

It's interesting that Badler would rank Yusniel Diaz higher than Yadier Alvarez if he were eligible (not yet officially a Dodger) based on a more proven track record, but it is a reasonable position to take. I'll admit that, while Alvarez has the higher upside, he is the more unknown quantity given his raw ability. However, it is encouraging to have Diaz already considered among the Dodgers' top 10 prospects (once he's eligible). Also, I found it interesting that he floated the idea of overpayment for the likes of Omar Estevez was possibly linked to signing other prospects in a packaged deal.

Ben Badler, BaseballAmerica.com (11/30/15)

Frank (Chicago, IL): What's the skinny on Starling Heredia? Can we look forward to reading about him in the 2016 handbook???

Ben Badler: He’s definitely in there, although I don’t think “skinny” and “Starling Heredia” belong in the same sentence. He looks like he could lift a Volvo. Very strong, athletic, good tools and he’s hit well in games against kids his age, but the pitch recognition and strike-zone management are things he will need to tighten up against better competition.
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Josh (Virginia): How do the latest Cuban signings rank?

Ben Badler: Yusniel Diaz and Omar Estevez both have agreements to sign with the Dodgers, but because they are not officially members of the organization yet, they weren’t eligible for the list. Assuming everything gets cleared and official, I would put Diaz just on the cup of the Top 10. Estevez falls more toward the back of the Top 30.
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ericccs (Chicago): Ben, thanks for doing this. Love your international work. Considering all the money the Dodgers have already spent in the international market, do you foresee them continuing the shopping spree on the remaining Cubans? Any deals close with Sierra, Gutierrez, Ona, Arozarena, or the pending 16 yr olds? And was the Estevez signing just crazy money for a mediocre athlete? Thanks

Ben Badler: Thank you. I do think the Dodgers will continue to sign Cuban players the rest of the signing period. They’re already over their pool, the competition of other teams willing to go over their pool this year is limited (although the Cubs are out there), and they seem to have few if any limits on how much money they can spend, so it makes sense so snap up as many of those pool-eligible Cubans as they want before their window closes in June. I think just about all of the Dodgers’ Cuban signings have been overpays, but Estevez does jump out because you have to really, really be banking on the bat of a 17-year-old kid who’s a good, not great hitter for his age. But there are a lot of reasons why players get paid what they do in Latin America—I don’t know if it was part of a larger package deal or what, so I’ll wait until the signing period ends to sort it all out. He’s a solid player to add to the system, and the Dodgers just have a ton of money to spend.
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silverwidow (Pasadena, CA): Where would Yusniel Diaz fit if he were eligible?

Ben Badler: He’ll be right at the back-end area of the top 10. We essentially have to weight Diaz’s certainty against Yadier Alvarez’s upside and uncertainty, which is different than risk. I have personally seen 145 plate appearances of Diaz over the past year, there’s performance data on him from this past season in Serie Nacional and going back several years in the Cuban junior leagues, so there’s an extremely high level of certainty with him, even if he is a high-risk prospect just because he’s a 19-year-old who’s probably headed to Low-A. If anyone says he’s a mystery or an unknown, they don’t know what they’re talking about. Alvarez has a much lower level of certainty; he didn’t pitch in Serie Nacional, he wasn’t very good when he did pitch in Cuba’s junior leagues and he didn’t pitch much in the Dominican Republic before he signed with the Dodgers. What he showed in a brief spurt was impressive, but the control is a red flag and there’s a lot more unknown and uncertainty with him. There are some scouts who think he has a chance to be a frontline starter, others who think he’s too risky to put that projection on him yet. Is his upside that much greater than Diaz’s to outweigh the much higher level of uncertainty with him? I don’t think that it is, but I think reasonable evaluators could slot them either way.

Admiral Ackbar (Space, baby. Outer space.): Is it Yadiel or Yadier Alvarez? Why the difference? Is this a quirky human thing I'll never understand?

Ben Badler: For whatever reason, the spelling of Cuban player names tends to be fluid, even while players are still in Cuba. I’ve even seen players in Cuba have their last names spelled one way on the back of on of their uniforms, and another way on a different uniform. Even the Gourriel brothers are now the Gurriels. As someone who tries to keep all of our reports organized in a systematic way on our site, it’s quite vexing.
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Tony (Seattle, WA): 32 million for a prospect and add to that it prevents you from being able to sign somebody next two years is a TON to commit to one player (at least somebody who wants $). After reading BA's comments on Yadier what am I missing?

Ben Badler: It is a ton of risk, but the Dodgers aren’t just getting Alvarez. They also signed Starling Heredia and Ronny Brito, two Dominican prospects who were on our Top 30 prospects for July 2. They also have agreements with Diaz and Estevez, and I’m sure they’re going to sign more Cuban players before the period ends. Could they have done things in a more optimal way by attacking the July 2 market this year earlier and more aggressively in the DR and VZ to get more impact out of there? Yeah. But it’s not quite the same as the Angels going over just to get Roberto Baldoquin or the D-Backs just to get Yoan Lopez; those decisions are harder to justify when you’re going over your pool to get one, non-premium player.

Ben Badler: One thing to add on the Dodgers’ international spending: This is a team that can afford to pay for the upside and take on more risk. They’re in the financial position to be able to do that. For most teams, there’s a give and take somewhere in the baseball operations budget; if you’re paying $31 million or $32 million for a 19-year-old Cuban player, that money is going to come out of somewhere else. With the Dodgers, their ownership is willing to spend massive amounts of money on international free agents (particularly Cuban players), but they also have the game’s highest payroll by far. They might pay more money for players than other teams would or should pay them, but as if you’re a Dodgers fan, you have to be happy when your ownership is willing to invest heavily in all areas of talent acquisition. They really operate on a totally different level than other teams. What a contrast from previous ownership.

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Prospects Chat

[Ranma]

Jose Miguel Fernandez sounds similar to Alexander Guerrero to me as an all-bat, very questionable defense 2B. I'd pass on this guy. While he's not subject to the international signing pool, it's uncertain if he'll establish residency outside of Cuba in time to be available during this signing period, anyway. In any case, I'm not interested.

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Ben Badler, BaseballAmerica.com (12/2/15)

The problem is that it’s been more than a year since Fernandez last played in Cuba. Fernandez played the first few weeks of the 2014-15 season and was off to a .315/.415/.426 start with only one strikeout in 65 plate appearances before he was suspended for attempting to leave the country in October 2014. He missed the rest of the season and hasn’t played at all this year in Cuba or in any international tournaments because of the suspension.

With his bat-to-ball skills and ability to manage the strike zone, Fernandez is a potential high OBP threat in the major leagues, although his power is below-average. Speed isn’t part of Fernandez’s game, and his thickening lower half (listed at 5-foot-10, 185 pounds) has hampered his range at second base, where he’s at best an adequate defender. Fernandez also spent time at third base during the 2013-14 season, though his arm strength is better suited at second.

Jose Miguel Fernandez Leaves Cuba to Pursue MLB Deal

[Quake Griffin]

Sounds exactly like Alex Guerrero two years ago.
Pass.

I wonder why there was so much hype around Yadier Alvarez then. The Dodgers weren't the only team in on that kid. Seems like a lot of money to spend on an unknown quantity. Maybe they saw 98 on the gun and came-a-runnin??

[Ranma]

The Dodgers already had Yadier Alvarez, Starling Heredia, Rony Brito, and Lucius Fox (or so they thought) wrapped up and even offered Yoan Moncada more money than he eventually signed for to wait a few weeks to join this signing class. Plus, they had eyes on Eddy Julio Martinez and I'm sure they anticipated Yusniel Diaz's availability since they were in on him very early. Let's also not forget Hector Olivera. They even pursued Yoan Lopez too. The Dodgers were determined to make a humongous splash on the international scene and they very nearly pulled it off.

Then Lopez's desire to avoid the deep Dodgers farm system in order to get fast-tracked to the Majors had him headed to Arizona. Moncada's impatience sent him to the Red Sox. Fox's father pushed him to renege on his commitment to the Dodgers in order to sign for more money with the Giants. Martinez's stock dropped during his negotiation foibles before finally ending up with the Cubs. And Olivera was dumped for a nice return after the Dodgers got a good look at him in our developmental system. As it stands, it's still a big haul that has other teams scared to compete with us in the bidding for players and observers shaking their heads at the Dodgers' financial muscle flexing. And there's still a couple of significant possibilities out there in addition to the numerous lower level signings we've made.

With regards to Alvarez, he was my top target this off-season in spite of his raw skills and sudden appearance on the scene as an unknown quantity. He may be over-hyped but a skinny kid who reminds some of Ramon Martinez and can already hurl 98 mph is very intriguing. Not to mention his secondary pitches being developed. I've heard one scout say he's the best pitching prospect he's ever seen, but who knows how experienced that scout is. Other scouts have concerns that he'll end up as a reliever, which is why Vladimir Gutierrez is getting some play as the better prospect due to his polish but lower ceiling. I'm still happy with securing Alvarez.

In the end, I think the timing was right to go get Alvarez, Diaz, Heredia, and Brito plus whomever else during this period even if it means missing out on Moncada as the best overall prospect from the past two signing periods and Kevin Maitan as likely the best out of all of them in the next signing period. Hindsight will tell how right or wrong we and the Dodgers front office were.

[Ranma]

MLB.com came out with its early top 50 prospects ranking for the 2016 amateur draft and unsigned Dodgers draftee Kyle Funkhouser is currently ranked at 23rd overall. However, keep in mind that such rankings fluctuate by quite a bit as plenty of early top-rated prospects fall off precipitously and under-the-radar phenoms rise out of seemingly nowhere by the time the actual draft rolls around. Having said that, the strength of the 2016 class is seen to be with the college pitchers.

Also, while I'm still personally partial to Yadier Alvarez over Yusniel Diaz and MLB.com's rankings of the top 30 international prospects also has them ordered that way, it seems that Alvarez currently profiles more like a late first-rounder while Diaz profiles as a top-10 prospect for the 2016 draft class based on the comparable profiles from the current list of American draft prospects. However, they dinged Alvarez's slider and control ratings by 5 points apiece since moving him into the Dodgers prospects rankings while Diaz's profile hasn't been updated since he's still not officially signed. Otherwise, Alvarez would have easily profiled as a top-5 draft pick based on this international ratings.

This just seems to indicate that as MLB talent evaluators have had more time and exposure to evaluate Alvarez, Diaz, and Eddy Julio Martinez they adjusted their projections accordingly. So Martinez dropped a lot even though he's only recently signed with the Cubs, but I'm guessing his later workouts leading up to the signing controversy weren't impressive. To a much lesser extent, the hype on Alvarez has since died down a bit as more is known about the previously unknown quantity. In contrast, Diaz seems to have continued to rise to the occasion in workouts by confirming evaluations from scouts who've tracked his progress.

[Quake Griffin]

Whoa wait.

His overall is a 50?
This guy was supposed to be a top pick before he got injured.
a 50?

edit:
glad you're still big on Yadier.
Now if this team would get Vlad Gutierrez, this whole undertaking would be a phenomenal success.

[Ranma]

In addition to Funkhouser's injury, he seemed to consistently have problems with his control during his junior year, which is why I wasn't that high on him even as a value pick at 35th overall. I'm actually surprised they gave him a 50 rating for control instead of 45. The fact that he was also advised by Scott Boras wasn't appealing either. I guess it says something about his self-confidence to go back to school to try to recapture his previous high stature as a top prospect, but Boras usually pushes his clients to do that regardless whenever teams don't meet his asking price.

Observers consider this to be a weak draft class, so he has a shot to shoot back up to near the top of the draft board if he can regain his form, but I have my doubts given questions about his health and the lack of polish in his game. Besides, I'm more intrigued with a few right-handed pitching prospects currently ranked lower than him: Logan Shore, Alex Speas, Reggie Lawson, and Zack Burdi.

Adding Gutierrez to get the top 3 rated international prospects (and 4 of the top 7) would indeed be impressive in any given year, so I'm certainly interested to see that happen. I actually like both Alvarez and Diaz more than Gutierrez but he looks to be a welcomed addition to our developmental pipeline. I'm also interested to see how Yusniel Diaz's ratings will be updated once he officially becomes part of the Dodgers organization. Also, I don't think Badler worded his response correctly in syntax to express his opinion, but given the context of the conversation in the tweets below, it provides a glimmer of hope for a pursuit of Lourdes Gourriel, Jr. The "very soon" part of his response is what is encouraging coming from someone who follows the situation.

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[Ranma]

While I wasn't hoping to sign him, I also wasn't against having him on the roster as a backup 3B, but it seems to be a luxury we couldn't afford to invest a roster spot in. Not to mention the posting fee added to whatever contract we'd have offered him. I'm just surprised no one put in a bid for him, especially with the dearth of quality 3B in MLB. He seemed like a good fit for many teams.

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[Ranma]

The Dodgers are likely to have 4 picks in the top 50 for the 2016 MLB Amateur Draft. We could have had a 5th pick around that area had Brett Anderson declined his qualifying offer, but in hindsight, that looks like a good deal for us given the premium for major-league starting pitching this winter shopping season. Plus, Anderson is currently projected to be part of the top duo of free agent pitchers along with Strasburg for the next off-season. I believe the Dodgers will have the option of offering him a qualifying offer at that point as well assuming he stays healthy and is not traded by then. If so, we'd likely get a higher pick by virtue of not having as many compensatory picks next year.

Speaking of the potential 4 draft picks in the first/compensatory A round, our 1st pick was previously at 25th overall and just moved up to 23rd overall after the D-Backs signed Greinke and the Giants about to sign Samardzija. The pick has a likelihood of moving higher as more free agents are signed. We'll keep that pick as long as we don't sign a free agent who requires draft pick compensation, like Jason Heyward, Jeff Samardzija, or Hisashi Iwakuma. Speaking of which, the compensatory pick we get for losing Greinke is currently in the 29th overall draft slot with a likelihood of also moving up. The compensatory pick for not signing Kyle Funkhouser as the 35th overall pick in 2015 is locked in at 36th overall for 2016. That already accounts for 3 picks in the top 36 of the 2016 draft. However, assuming we don't re-sign Howie Kendrick, we'll also get another compensatory pick for his departure as well, and that pick will be among the top 50 after all teams are awarded their due compensatory selections.

Despite this being considered a weak draft class, I like the idea of having 4 picks in the top 50 for 2016 as I already have eyes on some young pitchers and a couple of hitters, but as was mentioned before, it's too early to project who'll be available when the draft actually rolls around. A concern I have is that we won't maximize the selections in taking the best player available with each of those draft choices given that each pick is assigned a slot value in the top 10 rounds. I'd like to see an over-the-slot signing or two by pulling the funds from slot values in the lower rounds. I don't want us to be overly concerned with draftability, especially since unsigned picks in the top two rounds will be compensated for in the following draft.

Belinsky makes a good point in the middle tweet below. Having these extra picks and a deep farm system allows the Dodgers to package prospects in a big trade or few with an avenue to quickly replenish the prospect cupboard. Signing a lot of top international prospects during this signing period doesn't hurt either.


Edit: Updated draft pick slot of the Dodgers' first two picks to reflect Samardzija signing as well as note that there are a couple of position players of interest as I make my way through the 2016 draft profiles on MLB.com.

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[Neddy]

i really hope Ryu comes back 100%. we an use his savvy pitching... IF ryu is 100%, between Kershaw-Ryu-Anderson(if stays healthy) we have enough to cover for the loss of Greinke.