2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft

[Ranma]

So where do our organizational weaknesses stand?

I'd say we're good to go on pitching andthe catcher spot.

IF and CF?

I don't mind filling the organizational depth of our developmental pipeline with the lower draft picks, but I still think we should be targeting BPA with at least the 3rd- and 4th-round picks. Having said that, I think we could still use another catcher as well as, like you said, infielders and centerfielders. Pitchers are obviously an ongoing investment that needs continued replenishment.

[Ranma]

Geez. I guess I missed the fact that the compensatory picks are determined by a lottery for small-market teams, after all. In any case, I'll still take Trezza's word over the MLB Network guy with regards to Jordan being related to Gary Sheffield.

Jim Callis, MLB.com (6/9/16)

20. Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Gavin Lux, Indian Trail (Wisc.) HS
Callis: With Delvin Perez reportedly failing a pre-Draft PED test, Lux became the top shortstop in a draft that's very weak at the position. He took a significant step forward this spring, making improvements with his swing, strength, speed and arm. He grew up around the game as the nephew of former No. 2 overall pick Augie Schmidt, now the coach of Division III Carthage (Wisc.), and his instincts stand out as well.
...

32. Los Angeles Dodgers: C Will Smith, Louisville (Compensation for Zack Greinke, who signed with the D-backs. Arizona forfeited its first-round pick.)
Callis: There was buzz he was going to go at the end of the first round or early in the supplemental first round, so this makes sense. He might hit .260-.270, give you a little bit of power, be a good receiver and give you a good arm behind the plate. I had one scout give me a plus run time on him.
...

The Dodgers and Rockies got good values in a pair of Southeastern Conference arms. At No. 36, Los Angeles took Vanderbilt right-hander Sheffield, who has three plus pitches and draws Marcus Stroman comparisons at his best.

Draft: Pick-by-Pick, First-Round Analysis


Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider (6/9/16)

2016 MLB draft: Pick-by-Pick Analysis for Round 1 and Beyond

[Quake Griffin]

Still leaving tonight wondering when this farm will have a right handed bat that profiles to be anything.


I get not drafting for need. I understand BPA.
I'm just taking a broad look at our farm after the int'l signings and 2 drafts and wondering when our next chance to get one is coming. I don't see it coming soon given our restraints in the int'l market and our slots in the draft more than likely.

[Ranma]

Still leaving tonight wondering when this farm will have a right handed bat that profiles to be anything.


I get not drafting for need. I understand BPA.
I'm just taking a broad look at our farm after the int'l signings and 2 drafts and wondering when our next chance to get one is coming. I don't see it coming soon given our restraints in the int'l market and our slots in the draft more than likely.

Right-handed power bats are a rare commodity so I'm more focused in filling that particular need through the international signings and free agency. We have to take what the draft gives us. It's unlikely we'll be able to select a quality right-handed batter from our typical draft position, anyway. Plus, I don't like drafting hitters who don't project to field their position ably as they grow and advance towards the Majors (e.g. catching prospects who aren't expected to stay as catchers). We'll have to settle for the more raw projects in the lower rounds and work to develop them.

That is why I'm particularly focused on pursuing the Gurriel brothers and Manny Machado, all right-handed bats. Yulieski Gurriel and Machado both have pop in their bats. International prospect pools tend to have more right-handed batters as opposed to the draft, which is why I'd rather look there to address the aforementioned need.

[Quake Griffin]

keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 12h12 hours ago
keithlaw Retweeted Cameron V.
No. And really the Cards did the right thing for their organization.keithlaw added,
Cameron V. @C_Villavaso
@keithlaw do you think STL drafting a kid recently caught taking PEDs is a "bad message" as Reynolds said during the show?
84 retweets 109 likes

[Ranma]

Well, Jared Horn's price tag makes him likely undraftable until maybe the 8th to 10th rounds as a more reasonable gamble when losing those picks would be more negligible, but it is unlikely his monetary demands would be met given the low assigned slot values for that area of the draft. The Padres take another guy I had my eye on in Mason Thompson in the 3rd round. I didn't mention him because I didn't think he'd be available at a reasonable selection slot for us. Also, I mentioned before that I didn't think Kyle Funkhouser was worth a 3rd-round pick and, lo and behold, he gets drafted by the Tigers in the 4th round. So he turned down $2 million from the Dodgers only to get maybe $500,000 based on the money assigned for his draft slot. It's doubtful he'll get much more since Detroit will prioritize meeting Matt Manning's bonus demands.

The Dodgers taking 6'6" prep RHP Dustin May in Round 3 seems like a good upside pick as the kid has a lot of projection and a high spin rate. And seemingly to fill Quake's wish list, the Dodgers then draft D.J. Peters, another 6'6" right-hander but with a power bat in the OF in the 4th-round. Peters was drafted previously but much lower and, in fact, is ranked 290th by Baseball America. He seems like another reach, but given that right-handed power bats are at a premium as previously discussed, he represents possibly a decent project investment, especially being identified previously by MLB talent evaluators (was selected in the 36th round twice by the Rangers and Cubs), at the cost of a fairly low draft pick.

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[Ranma]

so, Gavin Lux, Will Smith, and Jordan Sheffield in the first day. I like the latter two picks but I am not sure about the high school SS from WIsconsin. I was not familar with him and after the selection I did some reaerch on his videos and I don't know if I am confident in his swing. haven't seen his glove and they are glowing with reviews about his fielding, so I have to take their words for it but in the box, I am not impressed one bit with his swing. hope I am wrong.

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[Ranma]

I understand each team has their own internal draft board, which will be different from the consensus, but outside of Jordan Sheffield, there seems to be quite a few overdrafts with our draft selections. Granted the Lux and Smith selections are not as big of reaches as I thought in hindsight and based on late draft buzz, but I haven't been excited with our overall haul thus far.

For the most part and despite the bland draft selections thus far, there at least hasn't been a pick made that I really disliked and hated. However, Gasparino did draft Kyle Funkhouser with a 1st-round pick and Philip Pfeifer in the 3rd round last year and I hated those picks thinking they were a waste of resources. The Funkhouser selection at least got us Jordan Sheffield a la Hochevar but Pfeifer still doesn't make sense. And now we just took LHP Devin Smeltzer 161st overall in the 5th round when Baseball America has him ranked 244th overall. Unlike Peters, May, and White before him, Smeltzer doesn't project to have much, if any, upside and looks like a capable lefty specialist out of the bullpen. To be fair, that's something of value we could use at the Major League level but he better be fast-tracked in his development to get the most out of this selection. The best thing I can say about this selection is that it was not as bad as taking Pfeifer with a 3rd-round selection.

I would have rather taken Cooper Johnson over Smeltzer or even Peters, but that may not be practical as Johnson probably isn't signable beyond the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

With our draft picks thus far, we better be taking fliers on higher ranked prospects with high upside who've fallen down draft boards due to signability by shaving money from the assigned slot values of the draftees already in the fold. Gasparino at least seems to acknowledge as much and stated that he's targeting some high school players to see who will be reasonable with their bonus demands. Jared Horn is not realistic but hopefully we'll be in pursuit of targets similar to Imani Abdullah (signed) and Logan Crouse (unsigned) from last year's draft.

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[Ranma]

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David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (6/10/16)

What he can be good at in the future:

May is tall and lean, with the chance to fill out and hold his plus velocity deep into starts. May flashes a plus breaking ball, a deep slider, but will need to find a consistent slot to keep the pitch from flattening out.

What does he need to work on:

Day’s mechanics aren’t consistent. His approach is arm heavy and he lands on a stiff front leg. I don’t mind the low ¾ slot, but May doesn’t repeat his slot consistently, which affects the sink on the fastball and the depth on his breaking ball. At 6’6 and under 200 lbs. May must also continue to add strength to his frame.

Carry tool:

May’s fastball that shows plus sink and run and velocity into the mid 90’s is his calling card. The slider could become plus as well, but consistently pitching effectively off his fastball will be key to moving up the ladder.

Biggest weakness:

Right now, just consistency, and that should come with work to clean up his mechanics. As a tall and lean pitcher, this is often the last piece to put in place, and the Dodgers can afford patience to develop him.

MLB Draft 2016: Profile of Dustin May, Dodgers' 3rd-Round Pick


Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider

ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Dustin May

[Ranma]

David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (6/10/16)

What he’s good at right now

Peters was a 2014 Perfect Game All American thanks to his power potential, and he showed more production this year at Western Nevada. It wasn’t just the power though, as Peters led the team in average as well, with only 33 strikeouts in sixty-one games. He’s added bulk to his frame but still looks like a solid athlete.

What he can be good at in the future

Junior colleges in the West have tended to favor offense, so Peters will have to prove his power production at the pro level, but he has the strength, bat speed, and leverage to hit for plus power. He might also end up with an above average hit tool, though his size could lend to some swing and miss against superior pitching.

What does he need to work on

A decent runner out of high school and a center fielder in college, Peters will need to work to stay agile enough to fit in an outfield corner at the pro level. He might end up with enough bat to carry first base if he has to, but he’s more valuable in right field. Despite the production, Peters swing can get long and may lead to contact issues against better pitching.

MLB Draft 2016: Profile of OF D.J. Peters, Dodgers' 4th-Round Pick

[Ranma]

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David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (6/9/16)

Taking another chance on a pitchability player that should be signable, Smeltzer makes up for a lack of premium velocity by throwing nothing straight. Similar to Miller with solid command of a three pitch mix, Smelter has put up impressive strikeout numbers leading his team to the Junior College World Series.

Smeltzer’s stuff hasn’t taken much of a step forward since being a Perfect Game All American two years ago, and still throws in the upper 80’s. His best pitch is a change-up that dives away from right handers. His slider will pop out of hand, but should be a problem for left handers from his arm angle.

Smeltzer will likely start his career in the rotation, but may at some point move to the bullpen in an attempt to get the most out of his stuff. He’s not likely to be challenged until facing better hitters at High-A, with Double-A determining whether he has a future starting. At worst, his stuff gives him potential as a lefty specialist.

MLB Draft 2016: Dodgers Mock Draft, the First 10 Rounds

[Ranma]

David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (6/9/16)

What he’s good at right now

Sheffield has a live arm with high strikeout numbers in the SEC. Sheffield’s fastball will reach the upper 90’s with sink, and his hard curveball is a true swing and miss pitch. Sheffield is athletic and employs an atypical but repeatable delivery.

What he can be good at in the future

As a six footer, Sheffield isn’t overly projectable, so improvement likely comes from more consistency and improved stamina.

What does he need to work on

Sheffield’s command has improved this year, but he will need to be more pitch efficient to continue starting at the next level. Sheffield will also rush his delivery and might need to adjust his tempo to work every fifth day.
...

ETA

Sheffield will likely pitch sparingly for the remainder of the year after exceeding one hundred innings this spring. As a starter, he might pass both A levels in 2017, reaching Double A by 2018. As a reliever, he could be in the majors next season.

MLB Draft 2016: Profile of Jordan Sheffields, Dodgers' No. 36 Pick


John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall.com (5/2/16)

Well-known to scouts as a high school player in Tullahoma, Tennessee, Sheffield was a candidate for the first round in 2013 until blowing out his elbow and having Tommy John surgery. He went to college instead, rehabbed and took a redshirt in 2014, then got back on the mound in '15 and performed fairly well, posting a 2.85 ERA in 60 innings over 16 relief appearances and six starts. Command was an issue with 43 walks but he fanned 55 and allowed just 39 hits.

He remained inconsistent with his control in the Cape Cod League (5.49 ERA, 19/15 K/BB in 20 innings) and scouts wanted to see him take a step forward this spring. He's done just that.

Sheffield has always had a fine fastball, consistently in the mid-90s and with enough movement to draw 70 grades. He also has a very good change-up and has made good strides developing his curveball this spring; both secondary pitches now rate as above-average. His mechanics are reportedly cleaner and more consistent this year. His strikeout rate has spiked sharply, going from 8.25 K/9 last year to 11.08 this spring, with the improved secondaries the main reason. Even better, he's cut his walk rate in half, going from 6.45 last season to 3.31.

2016 MLB Draft: Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt University

[Ranma]

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Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (6/10/16)

Here’s what BA had to say about him:

“White’s fastball sat 89-93 mph early in the year, with crosscheckers seeing him top out at 94, his velocity jumped in his final two starts. His heater sat at 91-95 while touching 96 10 times in his last start at Brigham Young. In a 15-strikeout effort at Portland, in which he threw 74 of his 100 pitches for strikes, he drew swings-and-misses with four offerings: fastball, upper-80s cutter (which at times morphs into a low-80s, loopy slider), upper-70s hard curve with 12-to-6 shape and a new changeup he just started throwing in late March. Scouts like the cutter best among his secondary pitches but worry about his lack of track record and long arm action. White has some athleticism and a good pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-4, 207 pounds.”

Dodgers Select Santa Clara RHP Mitchell White in Second Round

[Ranma]

Daniel Paulling, Clarion-Ledger (6/10/16)

“He’s a below-average bat,” a major league scout said. “He’s a singles hitter at best.

What makes Robinson a highly regarded prospect is his defense and arm strength.

Baseball America named Robinson a preseason first-team All-American based on voting of major league teams, praising his infield actions, body control and quickness.

“The ability to play shortstop is very valuable, especially this year,” the scout said. “There’s not a ton of guys on people’s boards that are shortstops.

“He probably profiles more as a utility infielder at the major league level, but if you can play shortstop and play it average, you can make a living doing that. You’re definitely buying into the defense with the ability to play shortstop if you draft him earlier.”

Ole Miss' Errol Robinson, Henri Lartigue Chosen in Draft


John Manuel, Baseball America (2/1/16)

Robinson started for Ole Miss’ 2014 College World Series team as a freshman, owing to his above-average glove. He has the infield actions, body control, quickness and average arm strength for the position, though some scouts question whether he has the rocket arm to be a true plus defender. He showed more offensive ability in the Cape Cod League last summer, hitting .312 and using his above-average speed to be a useful, if not prolific, basestealer.

2016 College Preseason All-America Teams

[Neddy]

I actually now think we are not drafting these guys to groom, at least not the SS position so far. we keep hearing this year is a thin year for SS, and most franchises, even those with a young stud SS on their major league roster, can use more defensively reliable SS prospects along with good catchers. I think we are drafting trade commodities. from that POV, grabbing three SSs out of top 32 drafted in the position, seems like a business stratagy to hoard precious commodities rather than planning to groom all of them. I say that #1 pick of ours may get packaged along with something else for a blockbuster trade come mid season this year or next?

[Ranma]

David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (6/10/16)

What he’s good at right now

Smeltzer was also a Perfect Game All American in 2014, and the pitcher he was then is largely the pitcher he is now. Smeltzer can throw four pitches, with the change-up flashing plus. Smeltzer’s fastball is generally in the upper 80s with heavy run, and his slider is his best breaking ball, but often has a slurve shape. Smeltzer has posted excellent strikeout numbers and has proven durable despite a thin build.
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ETA

A polished JuCo guy, Smeltzer should breeze through the low minors. He’s pitched a lot down the stretch to the World Series, so he might spend the rest of the season in the Ogden and Great Lakes bullpens. As a reliever, he could reach the majors as early as 2018, though starting might require more time and patience.
...

Wrap

The Dodgers took Smeltzer two rounds before I did in my mock draft, though to be fair to the Dodgers, the tough sign high schoolers are taken in my draft while they push players like Smeltzer up the board in reality. I love Smeltzer’s pitchability and compete level, as he’s unafraid to attack hitters in the zone with all of his pitches.

Though the velocity isn’t where you want it, he makes up for it with command and movement, and I have some belief that he can succeed as a starter in the pro game. The floor is still fairly high as a lefty specialist, and the upside isn’t tremendous, but you have to feel good about having a competitor like this in your organization.

MLB Draft 2016: Profile of Devin Smeltzer, Dodgers' 5th-Round Pick

[Ranma]

Hudson Belinsky, Baseball America (6/5//16)

Lux has a professional attitude and demeanor. Scouts and coaches rave about his makeup. And for as exciting as his character and work ethic are, he’s able to match them with his tools.

The circumstances surrounding Lux’s development to this point aren’t exactly normal. He’s had quality coaching and exposure to the type of competition that few cold-weather players have the opportunity to see. He’s been nurtured into a top prospect.

Lux’s hitting ability will be the biggest question for him to answer at the next level. He had a strong spring against Wisconsin prep pitching, but how Lux meets the challenges of next-level pitching will dictate his ultimate ceiling. On the showcase circuit, Lux was prone to swing and miss as he caught up to the speed of the game, and it remains to be seen how his added strength and bat speed will impact him when it comes time to play at the next level. As an athletic shortstop with good intangibles, he has a relatively high floor, though there is risk with any high school player.

Draft Prospect Breakdown: Gavin Lux


John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall.com (6/9/16)

A year ago his tools seemed to fit best at second base but over the last 12 months he's gained size and strength. With physical maturity he now shows the arm strength to remain at shortstop, at least in the eyes of many observers, and his range and instincts would work well anywhere.

Listed at 6-2, 175, Lux was born November 23, 1997. A left-handed hitter, he has a line drive bat with sneaky power. His strike zone judgment is considered sound and the improved strength has boosted his power potential. While he'll never be a masher, he should be an effective line-drive hitter with very good on-base skills and enough speed to be a danger on the bases.

2016 MLB Draft: Gavin Lux, SS, Kenosha, Wisconsin


David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (6/9/16)

What he’s good at right now

Lux’s best attribute is his lack of significant weaknesses. He’s a high aptitude defender that will likely stay at shortstop with a solid arm and above average hands and footwork. Offensively, Lux has present bat speed and the ability to hit for average.

What he can be good at in the future

Lux has a frame to grow into and with his bat speed, could develop fringe average pop down the road. He’s already a solid contact hitter but could develop into a pure plus high average hitter.
...

Biggest weakness

Lux has no glaring weaknesses per se, though his power may be no better than fringe average. Lux’s biggest detraction from his peers might be his ceiling, as Lux doesn’t have the offensive upside of players like Nolan Jones, Delvin Perez, or Josh Lowe.

MLB Draft 2016: Profile of Gavin Lux, Dodgers' 1st-Round Pick

[Ranma]

David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (6/9/16)

No player has probably had more helium on media draft boards in the last two weeks than Louisville catcher Will Smith. The slender 6'0 190 lbs. catcher has hit his way into first day consideration, currently sitting at .380/.476/.573 for the College World Series contending Cardinals. Smith has only struck out twelve times this season while walking eighteen times and being hit by sixteen pitches.

Finding enough information to evaluate Smith's tools has proven difficult enough that I did not put him on my big board. Smith has a good reputation as both a receiver and in controlling the run game. He's more athletic than most catchers, with some considering his run tool a plus, and he's stolen nine bags in ten attempts.

2016 MLB Draft Notes: Will Smith and Underrated Prospects


David Hood, TrueBlueLA.com (6/9/16)

What he can be good at in the future

The key for Smith will be maintaining his athleticism and hitting as he progresses through the minors. Smith hadn’t hit above .250 before this season, and the hope is some physical maturity will help this development stick. He’s a disciplined hitter that’s hard to strike out, so he just needs gap power to keep posting solid numbers.

What does he need to work on

Smith has hit eight home runs this season, but his size and swing aren’t geared for significant power. Smith’s swing is fairly flat with little load, helping him stay in the zone and be quick to the ball, but not necessarily helping him hit for power.

Carry tool

Smith’s ability as a receiver and athleticism are what should help him climb the organizational ladder. If he holds his offensive game, a plus hit tool would make him a rare breed as a catcher, and the contact rate this year looks promising.

MLB Draft 2016: Profile of Will Smith, Dodgers' No. 32 Pick


Steve Jones, Courier-Journal (6/3//16)

The 6-foot, 190-pound Smith, a third-team All-ACC pick, is a former ace pitcher and infielder for KCD, so he possesses a strong arm to throw out would-be base stealers, quick hands to block balls in the dirt and more speed than the average catcher.

He has a .997 career fielding percentage and has thrown out 12 of the 26 players who have tried to steal on him this year. U of L shortstop Devin Hairston said he’s never seen a catcher who fires a more accurate ball down to second than Smith.

The multitude of pro scouts who have come to evaluate U of L’s elite pitchers, including the closer Burdi, who can throw 100 miles per hour, also have ended up observing Smith’s acumen in receiving those elite pitches.

“You know he’s catching big-league stuff,” said Manuel, who believes Smith measured up well to highly regarded catching prospects Zack Collins of Miami, Matt Thaiss of Virginia and Chris Okey of Clemson at the ACC tournament.

Stock Surges for U of L Catcher Smith

[Ranma]

I actually like what the Dodgers have done with their lower draft picks in recent years. I just wish they would hit more regularly with our picks in the 1st round without sacrificing upside. Joc Pederson was taken 352nd overall in the 11th round in 2010; Jose De Leon 724th overall in the 24th round in 2013; Cody Bellinger 124th overall in the 4th round in 2013; and Willie Calhoun 132nd overall in the 4th round in 2015. The priority should be to swing for the fences in targeting high-upside prospects to fill in the top of our prospect rankings rather than just replenishing an already deep farm system.

This has been bugging me after I wrote and re-read it afterwards. I previously mentioned earlier in this thread that I liked how the Dodgers have drafted in the later rounds, but I want to clarify that I meant in terms of results thus far. The reason I'm bringing this up and highlighting the mention of Willie Calhoun above is that Calhoun was not a pick I liked at the time it was made. I just didn't like his body type and the fact that he was not fielding his position well. He's now excelling at his current level in the minors and moved ahead of Micah Johnson as our top 2B prospect in the minors IMO. I can't say that I'm in love with him but I do appreciate the progress he's made and the successful call the scouts made in picking him in hindsight.

[Ranma]

Cary Osborne, DodgerInsider.com (6/9/16)

“We think he has a lot of athleticism, good hands, enough arm strength to stay at the position. He’s a very good baseball player ,and we really think he’s got a chance to be a really good hitter at the Major League level. It’s a nice mix of talent and skill and a kid who comes form a baseball family, and we think has really high character.”

Dodgers’ No. 1 Lux Ready to Start Pro Career Now; Gasparino Breaks Down Day’s Draft


Eric Stephen, TrueBlueLA.com (6/9/16)

Not that the Dodgers aren't high on Lux. Billy Gasparino, the club's director of amateur scouting, said he had Lux higher on his board than shortstop Delvin Perez, who was ranked by many among the top 10 prospects in the draft but reportedly tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug. Perez ended up falling to No. 23 to St. Louis.
...

"I know the Wisconsin stigma throws some people off, but he has played in some highly competitive leagues over the summer against some of the best players," Gasparino said. This isn't some raw kid. This guy is advanced, and he knows what he's doing on the field."

Lux said some people have compared him to Chase Utley, and described himself as "a high-contact guy who could run pretty well and play defense."
...

"He's grown over the last year, gaining 20-25 pounds. One of the things we were impressed with was just how much strength he put on over the last six months," Gasparino said. "He may look small, but he's more physical than you think."

Gasparino said should shortstop be occupied by the time Lux is ready for the majors, second base would be a natural fallback position for him. Though that's pretty far in the future, and the club likes what they have now in Lux.

"We feel this type of player does very well historically in the draft. Several of the first-round picks over the years who have the same skill set have done well. We just thought it was an undervalued or under-appreciated skill set," Gasparino explained. "Left-handed-hitting shortstops that are athletic and can hit, usually overachieve more than underachieve. We just think it's a really good package with our first pick."

Dodgers 1st-Round Pick Gavin Lux Sounds Like He Wants to Turn Pro