2016-2017 off season thread.

[AGAVE]

I'm a big AG fan.
Moving him would hurt some of our team makeup.
(See Ellis for Ruiz as an example)

I think I should also add that it appears our FO shows and feels NO allegiances to any player; so any moves anymore won't surprise me.

Letting HK walk helps this issue.
I had thought about the outfield for a few weeks now.
Puig traded to acquire a AA or AAA player + a draft pick.
Maybe even JP; although I'll miss his defense in CF.
Moving these 2 plus anything to get a Verlander satisfys me.
What to do about RYU?
Reliever/Closer role?
So...
In the outfield I feel good rotating SVS, Toles, Reddick, TT, Ethier, and whomever.
FO magic could acquire another situational outfielder.
Now, this leaves me struggling how we bring in two .300 avg hitters.
Our offense tailed off after giving Vin Scully the divisional title.
Do we make a trade to acquire someone like Giancarlo Stanton; a hitter of his capability.

There is alot to consider here in the offseason

[Quake Griffin]

We have a goal as an organization. We want to build the developmental pipeline and "build from within" so to speak.

We are close to being that team. I don't want to jeopardize that at all this offseason by trying to plug in holes.

It's not that I dont want to "win now" but if you have too many holes to fill, then you have bigger issues to deal with institutionally than just filling those specific holes over the winter.

That said...i'm less emotional today and I think I have an idea of where I want to go this offseason:

1) Re-sign Kenley and Turner.

2) Bring in Mark Melancon. I'm not sure that he will accept not being the closer but a nice price tag can probably quiet his holler and make him a quality setup man. Remember he was traded this year so he can't cost ys a draft pick.

3) If I get 1) and 2), I have no problem bringing Blanton back. I am concerned if this season burned him out.

4) Move on from Utley (even thouhh I appreciated him this year).

5) Move on from Baez.

6) Move on from Rich Hill and Reddick. It was worth the shot. I WILL entertain bringing Rich Hill back if we structure the deal like Kenta Maeda's.


Guys I'd like if we just felt like we gad to make a trade:
- Ender Inciarte...better fielder than Joc. Great baserunner. Better at making contact. Still has 4 years of control left

- Anthony Desclafani...if Cincy is dead set on rebuilding.

- Matt Duffy...RH bat. Makes good contact. Can play 2B well if we keep the roster the same. Can play 3rd if we move on from A-Gon and put Justin at 1st...we dont need to do that. Turner is terrific at 3rd. I'm intrigued by him because he was packaged for Matt Moore. I think he can be had at the right price and helps us with our lefty issue.

- Adam Eaton. LHH but has good L-R splits. Best defender in RF in the league. Gets on base. If we can put Puig in this deal, I'd do it. I dont want to deal much from our farm for him. Puig's upside > his. But this is season 4 of Puig's potential/ upside. Give me the best defensive RF, great lead off hitter and .360 obp.

- Greinke if the money and prospects are right....incentive here is that eating some of his money means the less prospects we throw in....he loves working with Yaz as well.


Cliffs:
- Losers out
- Winners in
- I like building from within
- if we have to trade, I like those guys listed based on fit and not ruining our build from within model.

[Neddy]

I'm a big AG fan.
Moving him would hurt some of our team makeup.
(See Ellis for Ruiz as an example)

I think I should also add that it appears our FO shows and feels NO allegiances to any player; so any moves anymore won't surprise me.

Letting HK walk helps this issue.
I had thought about the outfield for a few weeks now.
Puig traded to acquire a AA or AAA player + a draft pick.
Maybe even JP; although I'll miss his defense in CF.
Moving these 2 plus anything to get a Verlander satisfys me.
What to do about RYU?
Reliever/Closer role?
So...
In the outfield I feel good rotating SVS, Toles, Reddick, TT, Ethier, and whomever.
FO magic could acquire another situational outfielder.
Now, this leaves me struggling how we bring in two .300 avg hitters.
Our offense tailed off after giving Vin Scully the divisional title.
Do we make a trade to acquire someone like Giancarlo Stanton; a hitter of his capability.

There is alot to consider here in the offseason

appreciate you coming around, this forum has been forever a 4 man discussion board.

as for Gonzo, yeah he is the unquestioned leader of the lockerroom, but I beg the differ regaring Ellis. Ruiz had some big hits that we all know AJ didn't have it in him. after that very first game where he was crossed up with Kenley, he worked extra hard to get to know the pitching staff in a hurry. I believe if our FO chose Austin Barnes to be on the roster, Ruiz could have been used in important spots as a designated right handed pinch hitter the way he was well utlized against the Nats. but I understand that **** touched Lester before for the long ball and Im sure they wanted more speed around the basepath as well.

HK won't walk, we gave him a 2 year deal paid spreaded out to 4 years. he will be on the roster unless we cut him and continue to pay like we have with Crawford, but Howard is still a productive player, may not be an everyday player but a productive and versatile utlility player who can cover 1B/2B/3B/LF. the player who's contracts are over now are Utley, Turner, Kenley, Ruiz, Anderson, Blanton and Hill.

I don't believe you can package a draft pick in a trade in MLB. you can trade a compensation pick or international slot money but cannot deal a pick like you can in NBA or NFL.

please no to Verlander. he is in his mid 30s, his best is well behind him but his contract is still running for the next 4 years with 106 million dollars left. he also has a vested option for 22 million if he finishes in top 5 in Cy Young votes.( which will never happen btw) these are the type of deals our FO are trying to avoid, future creepling contracts Yankees used to suck in all the time which has majorly hindered their effort to rebuild. now they have Sanchez to build around, and still guys like Ellsbury to sell off.

Joc is dirt cheap. his production is very above his pay grade and we have no better defensive alternative in the center. he is staying.

I dunno about Ryu man... I was very hopeful knowing his history of playing hurt through out his career, but didn't account that players under 9 years of playing time in Korea has no guaranteed contracts and if your performance is down or sit out a season, the team can unilaterally choose to give you a significant paycut. MLB has a guaranteed contract and there was no incentive for him to play hurt or even rush back with his rehab. the fat bastard is sure taking his time and is constantly spotted around K town eating unhealthy food, drinking and smoking when he is supposed to be rehabbing and working out to get his body in shape. but his talent is surely there when he is right. if he was 100% healthy, I think we are in the WS right now. he would have been a big upgrade over Maeda and clearly our 3rd best pitcher behind Kershaw and Hill. his stats are head and neck above Maeda and Kazmir this year. one thing I do know about Korean players general attitude with their countrymen's perception of relievers, he would rather sit on his ass and collect the checks and retire when its done rather than give up being a starter. no way he will try being a reliever or a closer.

Ethier in the outfield has not been stellar for most of his career despite his gold glove nominations. his advanced stats on defense is actually atrocious. he makes some routine plays look spectacular but Joc, Toles and **** are the only 3 outfielders we have that have a decent defensive metrics. I love Puig and believe in his potential but even he has a negative number.

I am really not a big fan of platoon outfields. it takes away rhythm from both players. I prefer having a competent 5 guys we can rotate and lessen each others work load but a strict platooning means we have a pair of half bit players.

now I would love to grab Stanton. he is a difference maker but the Marlins are managed by our old idiot Donny the softball Mattingly. our trade pieces will have to center around Puig and there are no other manager in all baseball who hates Puig more. other alternative would be giviing up one of our young arms in Urias or De Leon plus Joc or a prospect like Bellinger and that's a bonehead move. that would come close to what Dave Stewart did for Arizona just last off season, giving up Enciate and Swanson plus more to get Shelby Miller. Stanton is a much better player than Shelby of course, but Urias is the next Kershaw. Bellinger could be something close between Eric Karros with better athleticism to Tony Gwynn type with less OBP first baseman. their ceilings are too high to give up, and Puig has to be the center piece if we are going to trade for something big. I see more like teams such as the Jays, if they choose to not give a QO to Bautista and Encarnacion finds a taker who are willing to give up a first rounder for him, then to make a deal for someone as young and relatively cheap as Puig and try to reload for next season. problem is, I want someone like Marcus Stroman and they won't depart with him unless we give them a major league ready pitcher. maybe they are willing to take Ryu. who knows.

now I have a new topic maybe you would like to chew on and reply, which has been a topic of discussion for the other guys in here already which is... how many starting pitchers are enough to start the 2017 season with? and who stays and who goes? who do we go after if we are in the trade market as the FA market is baron. I say Anderson goes unless he is signed to a 1 year deal less than say, 7 mil. his value and depenability to me is bare minimum. we must go after Hill. his pitching style will not regress suddenly in next season or two. I would over pay to keep him on the rotation. Maeda is a cheap workhorse for the regular season. he should be our #5 guy who get skipped time to time to give extra rest. he needs it too. Ryu I would keep around just to see if he can make a come back. he is already cheaper than Anderson anyway. McCarthy I am counting on. I see him as the #3 guy next season. Urias earned a spot. but he wil be on innings limit well below 170 and probably close to 150. De Leon will have to start the next seaon in AAA but should be the first man up when the inevitable injuries do happen. once he is up, the poorer performing players will have to find a new role or sent down. guys without options, depending on how much more depth that are available behind them, may be designated for an assignment.
so, Kershaw - Hill - McCarthy - Urias - Maeda is my startnig 5 to open the season with Ryu on DL, De Leon, Stewart in AAA, and Stripling and Wood in the bullpen as setup guys who can be emergency starters if all things break down. I can even envision Wood becoming the closer if we lose Kenley to the free agency. Jansen will be given a QO. it will be 17.5 million for 1 year. I have my doubts of how many GMs would be willing to lose their first round pick in a stacked draft like the one coming up, to sign a 30 year old closer with potential heart issues.

[Neddy]

yo Quake, gotta get Hill back man. there are no better starting pitcher available neither in FA nor in trade market. and with Cotton's meteoric rise we all knew could and would happen, in Oakland, we are gonna be kicking ourselves for years to come unless there is something to show for that trade. and I do not want that "something to show for" to be Reddick. he can take his replica WWE championship belt and go start his own wrestling promotion for all I care.

love the idea of going after Mark Melancon, but no way Nats would be outbidded for him. and he will be offered a QO. same boat as Kenley. for a guy who will not be getting a QO, what do you think about Sergio Romo? he will be cheap and would love nothing more than to give the finger to the organization that overlooked him for the last couple of seasons.

[Neddy]

BTW, it is so damn obvious that we are all dying to have more join our discussions regarding our most beloved franchise in baseball. I bet once Ranma sees the new guy's post, he will be all over it with his lenghty replies, just like we did.

welcome aboard, AGAVE! hope you stick around!

[Neddy]

where is Kilroy? don't go missing in action during the off season man, you are our mod!

[Quake Griffin]

They traded for him at the deadline. They can't give Melancon the QO. Same with Chapman but our organization from the top down has moved on from Chapman (and rightfully so) per MLBtraderumors.

I dont mind Hill. Just structure the deal like Maeda's. There isnt an injury known to man he hasnt had before. It needs to be incentive laden.

I see no reason to keep DeLeon in AAA anymore. He dominated AAA this year and looked good at the majors. The future is now. Theres no need for him to have nervous jitters and questions about whether he belongs in 2018. Put em out there now. No more delaying. He's 24!!!

Well...I'm not gonna put up that much of a funk. When Hill, McCarthy, and Maeda inevitably get injured, I'll get Delly in the majors like I want anyway.

[Neddy]

They traded for him at the deadline. They can't give Melancon the QO. Same with Chapman but our organization from the top down has moved on from Chapman (and rightfully so) per MLBtraderumors.

I dont mind Hill. Just structure the deal like Maeda's. There isnt an injury known to man he hasnt had before. It needs to be incentive laden.

I see no reason to keep DeLeon in AAA anymore. He dominated AAA this year and looked good at the majors. The future is now. Theres no need for him to have nervous jitters and questions about whether he belongs. Put em out there now. No more delaying.

Well...I'm not gonna put up that much of a funk. When Hill, McCarthy, and Maeda inevitably get injured, I'll get Delly in the majors like I want anyway.

you are right! good call! no QO for Mark man we need to go all in on this guy. Kenley will be pissed to see him get a QO for 1 year while we are going out to get another closer for a long term deal he wanted, but once he understands Mark is coming into set up for Kenley he should settle down.

I would love to see

9th - Kenley
8th - Mark Melancon
7th - Wood
6th - Blanton

right there is the winning set up men for the post season. leaves room for 3 more bullpen arms, we need Liberatore as our lefty specialist, Coleman as the righty specialist, then have Stripling as the long man. but then there is the case of Grant Dayton and one of the guys in this group including Grant will have to start in AAA. I think that obivously whichever the player who still has an option left.

Pedro Baez should be send down to AAA and be an emergency arm if he has options left. if he doesn't, he becomes a part of the package of et cetera's along with Chris Taylor and Josh Ravin.

JP Howell has been a good player for us, but it is time to move on and let him walk. I now he's got a tight relationship with Jansen, and if guys like Utley and JP wishes to retire rather than test the free agency, I would be all in to make them a part of the coaching staff.

[Neddy]

I forgot about Josh Fields, and injured guys like Yimi Garcia, Chris Hatcher, and Carlos Frias. I hope they all have options and we can stash them down in AAA. then there is the case of Jesse Chavez. he is a local kid from Victorville. possibly the most well known person to come out of that **** hole. but we need to move on from him. good luck to Jesse and also to Magic Mike up in Toronto.

[AGAVE]

Thanx to all for the welcome
I'm more a FAN than a stats geek; but I do skim over some of the websites for #s & research

Pitching
Well...most of the starters did not seem to be at full strength after 162.

CK has obvious physical limits, time will tell how long he has it in him.
I worry that the Ellis trade might make him exercise his out clause.
That move benefits both - in the fact that CK can choose his destiny and if he leaves, frees up a contract to go after younger arms.
If he stays, I'm sure he will work out a team friendly contract.
It hurts to state this but I have to be realistic in my view of the future.

Maeda :
His first year with us.
A learning curve to say the least but I am impressed that he lasted all year without injury.
Fatigue certainly was a factor.
Great move by AF & FZ.

Urias :
His first year called up and be the age of 20 YO.
He handled it admirably.

Hill :
When healthy, he excelled.
Pretty good for resurrecting a career, I must say.
Id prefer to get him back for a 2 year deal.

McCarthy and Deleon finish out my 5 spot.

Kazmir I would anticipate opts out and tests FA.
Pitchers are slim to none and when available right now command a spendy contract.
Anderson is done as a Dodger unless he decides to take on a low cost contract and be a spot pitcher out of the bullpen.
We already have that in Blanton.

My opinions are this going forward :
We need to be stronger in middle relief and with a set-up guy.
So I will not be surprised if AF/FZ elect to obtain more capable and deeper arms for innings 6-8/9.
What we need are these kind of pitchers in these innings that can execute; not just throw.

[wco81]

We have a goal as an organization. We want to build the developmental pipeline and "build from within" so to speak.

We are close to being that team. I don't want to jeopardize that at all this offseason by trying to plug in holes.

It's not that I dont want to "win now" but if you have too many holes to fill, then you have bigger issues to deal with institutionally than just filling those specific holes over the winter.

Dodgers haven't been shy about spending money though have they?

According to this site, in the 4 seasons from 2013 to 2016, the Dodgers have spent almost $1.1 billion:

I'm not even sure that includes the big international signings that you guys talk about.

Interestingly, if you look at the 2017, 2018 and 2019 payrolls, they drop way down, even under $100 million by 2019. But so do the Yankees, Cubs and Red Sox over the next 3 years. (Sadly the Giants are going to be up there in money committed despite the holes in their roster).

If these big payroll/big revenues clubs don't win in the next year or two, it's hard to imagine them not being active in free agency.

Isn't there pressure on the Dodgers? Have they raised ticket prices to pay for these high payrolls or is the TV deal enough?

[Quake Griffin]

We have a goal as an organization. We want to build the developmental pipeline and "build from within" so to speak.

We are close to being that team. I don't want to jeopardize that at all this offseason by trying to plug in holes.

It's not that I dont want to "win now" but if you have too many holes to fill, then you have bigger issues to deal with institutionally than just filling those specific holes over the winter.

Dodgers haven't been shy about spending money though have they?

According to this site, in the 4 seasons from 2013 to 2016, the Dodgers have spent almost $1.1 billion:

I'm not even sure that includes the big international signings that you guys talk about.

Interestingly, if you look at the 2017, 2018 and 2019 payrolls, they drop way down, even under $100 million by 2019. But so do the Yankees, Cubs and Red Sox over the next 3 years. (Sadly the Giants are going to be up there in money committed despite the holes in their roster).

If these big payroll/big revenues clubs don't win in the next year or two, it's hard to imagine them not being active in free agency.

Isn't there pressure on the Dodgers? Have they raised ticket prices to pay for these high payrolls or is the TV deal enough?

This new regime has been shy about spending money. They have spent money but...they havent paid for the big free agent yet. They havent signed anyone over 4 years. They havent signed an FA for over $48 million.

Greinke, Scherzer, Cueto, Price, Shark...all either not offered or got outbid on them....and to my knowledge, it's really just Greinke we were outbid on since Cueto came out last month abd said we never offered him a contract.

I cant see them giving a significant outlay anytime soon. The next time I can reasonably see it is 2018 when Machado, Harper, and Harvey (RIP Jose...he woulda been on this list too) are available.

By then, we would have had another international signing opportunity where we could blow the competition out of the water with the signings like we did in 2015.

Until the 2018 FA class, I expect us to draft players, look for international players or trade for prospects or cost controlled players...

Cliffs:
- Old regime spent like crazy
- New regime not so much
- I can't foresee a significant outlay/expenditure before 2018.
- Build from within model until then.

[Quake Griffin]

The Sox and Cubs numbers are going down now.

But they'll have to ante up to keep those cores together. Those teams are going to get expensive very quickly.

[wco81]

Ah true, though didn't the new regime make the trade with the Red Sox which took all those salaries?

It would be great to see if the Indians could win with a $83 million payroll.

[Neddy]

We have a goal as an organization. We want to build the developmental pipeline and "build from within" so to speak.

We are close to being that team. I don't want to jeopardize that at all this offseason by trying to plug in holes.

It's not that I dont want to "win now" but if you have too many holes to fill, then you have bigger issues to deal with institutionally than just filling those specific holes over the winter.

Dodgers haven't been shy about spending money though have they?

According to this site, in the 4 seasons from 2013 to 2016, the Dodgers have spent almost $1.1 billion:

I'm not even sure that includes the big international signings that you guys talk about.

Interestingly, if you look at the 2017, 2018 and 2019 payrolls, they drop way down, even under $100 million by 2019. But so do the Yankees, Cubs and Red Sox over the next 3 years. (Sadly the Giants are going to be up there in money committed despite the holes in their roster).

If these big payroll/big revenues clubs don't win in the next year or two, it's hard to imagine them not being active in free agency.

Isn't there pressure on the Dodgers? Have they raised ticket prices to pay for these high payrolls or is the TV deal enough?

I don't mean to troll but I am glad we haven't.

Cueto was great this season, no doubt. but between his long term contract and Shark's, you guys are eventually gonna be strapped at some point and lessen the impact of Buster's prime.

We have spent an incredible amount of money in last few seasons since Guggenheim took over, and it is too bad that the LA local area has been without much TV coverage but I do like and approve of our approach of building within. in fact that is what your giants have done until going for broke with Cueto and Shark. I do understand that your team has won 3 WS in last 5 years and are willing to go for broke for a dynasty. we are merely trying to get one since 88. I used to rebuttal to every giant fans until 6 years ago that the giants have never won in SF, but that is no longer the case, and really surprised to see you guys deviate from your ways of what we are trying to emulate. but again, the circumstances are different now.

as Quake have already stated, I don't see us going stray from what we have been doing all these time, which is to enrich our farm and build within. we may spend only sparsely when the need arises but we won't be building through FA like the old Yanks used to.

[Neddy]

Ah true, though didn't the new regime make the trade with the Red Sox which took all those salaries?

It would be great to see if the Indians could win with a $83 million payroll.

which reminds me, I have a neighbor from northern Indiana who is a life long diehard Indians fan. gonna have to stop by with a bottle of quality wine next week. in rural Oregon, baseball fans of any kind is a treat.

[AGAVE]

It's my opinion that we were possibly waiting to spend that big money on Jose Fernandez.

AT/T just bought TWC.
Let's see now if we get our TV games back.

[Neddy]

Thanx to all for the welcome
I'm more a FAN than a stats geek; but I do skim over some of the websites for #s & research

Pitching
Well...most of the starters did not seem to be at full strength after 162.

CK has obvious physical limits, time will tell how long he has it in him.
I worry that the Ellis trade might make him exercise his out clause.
That move benefits both - in the fact that CK can choose his destiny and if he leaves, frees up a contract to go after younger arms.
If he stays, I'm sure he will work out a team friendly contract.
It hurts to state this but I have to be realistic in my view of the future.

Maeda :
His first year with us.
A learning curve to say the least but I am impressed that he lasted all year without injury.
Fatigue certainly was a factor.
Great move by AF & FZ.

Urias :
His first year called up and be the age of 20 YO.
He handled it admirably.

Hill :
When healthy, he excelled.
Pretty good for resurrecting a career, I must say.
Id prefer to get him back for a 2 year deal.

McCarthy and Deleon finish out my 5 spot.

Kazmir I would anticipate opts out and tests FA.
Pitchers are slim to none and when available right now command a spendy contract.
Anderson is done as a Dodger unless he decides to take on a low cost contract and be a spot pitcher out of the bullpen.
We already have that in Blanton.

My opinions are this going forward :
We need to be stronger in middle relief and with a set-up guy.
So I will not be surprised if AF/FZ elect to obtain more capable and deeper arms for innings 6-8/9.
What we need are these kind of pitchers in these innings that can execute; not just throw.

hopefully Kazmir opts out and we offer him a QO. I would not mind having him back with a 1 year deal oppsed to 2 years on the current deal, and even if he never ends up pitching for us, he is good to have in our back pocket.

I believe the reason why our current regime is not kin to give out anything more than a 3 year deal is because you can only get an insurance policy on baseball contracts up to 3 years. we are owned by a financial firm afterall.

this will sound obsurd, but I don't think it would hurt for us to have big money contracts not playing for us as long as it is a short term deal and plus they are still there to provide depth to our 2017 season when it comes to our rotation.
as I have said, my first choice would be to let Kazmir walk and say our goodbyes, but there are plenty of reasons to keep Scott on our payroll.

Kershaw / Hill / Kazmir / McCarthy / Ryu / Maeda / Urias / De Leon / Stewart / Wood / Stripling / even Sam Lecure. I am a little pissed that Tepesch is now gone to the Royals but we still have a plenty of depth IMO in terms of SP.

[Neddy]

It's my opinion that we were possibly waiting to spend that big money on Jose Fernandez.

AT/T just bought TWC.
Let's see now if we get our TV games back.

yes I agree. the death of this young man shook up more than just the Marlins organization.

[wco81]

Well as far as I'm concerned, they had to spend some money for a change. Some of it was out of necessity as Cain and Lincecum really declined much faster than they expected.

They're making crazy money in overpriced AT&T Park. For the first few years, they moaned about having to pay $25 million a year on a loan used to pay for the financing of the park.

But while they've won some rings, that raised the fans' expectations, especially with key players like Baumgardner and Posey still in their primes. It would be a missed opportunity not to try to win more while they're still under 30. The fan base would not have tolerated it if they didn't spend.

Of course they tried to go cheap with the lineup and their offense suffered as well as their relief pitching.

They also have to consider the other sports teams in the area. Warriors are winning while 49ers are a dumpster fire with a lot of cap space. Giants don't want to be lumped in with the 49ers now.

As for the Dodgers, they have a very promising player in Seager and all the prospects but the team isn't young, a lot of guys in their 30s:

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/payroll/

Kershaw is approaching 30 but still dominant. So maybe some urgency to win while he's still in his prime, especially with his salary?