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2016-2017 off season thread.

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Re: 2016-2017 off season thread. 

Post#281 » by Neddy » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:54 pm

dodger lineup against LHP in 2017 with the players already on the roster...

1. R 2B Kike
2. R RF Puig
3. L SS Seager
4. R 1B SVS
5. R 3B Turner
6. R LF Thompson
7. L CF Joc
8. R C Barnes

against RHP..

1. L LF Toles
2. L SS Seager
3. R 3B Turner
4. L 1B Gonzo
5. R RF Puig
6. S C Grandal
7. L CF Joc
8. R 2B Kike

Ethier is the primary pinch hitter from the left, SVS is the primary pinch hitter from the right.
Thompson/Toles/Ethier are the bench OF trio.
Barnes is the back up C and a backup 3B/2B
KIke plays the back up SS
SVS takes the last bench job.

Ruf starts from AAA next to Culberson.

just a quick brainstorming on a snowy unplanned holiday...
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Re: 2016-2017 off season thread. 

Post#282 » by Quake Griffin » Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:48 am

"Dodgers righty Yimi Garcia required Tommy John surgery in late October, according to a team announcement (via MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick, on Twitter). He had previously been shut down with a significant injury to his biceps, and also underwent knee surgery in September."

Wish he could have had it earlier.
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Re: 2016-2017 off season thread. 

Post#283 » by Neddy » Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:22 pm

i don't think the pen would had a room for Yimi anyway, but I am far more concerned about the rumor regarding Dozier and whom we are willing to give up for him. I doubt Dozier repeats his 5.9 fWAR season, and I am quite certain if given the whole season in the rotation, De Leon alone would out perform Dozier next season. I would take the bet that 180 innings of De Leon will grant 4 fWar and Dozier will perform below that in 2017.
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Re: 2016-2017 off season thread. 

Post#284 » by Neddy » Sat Dec 17, 2016 9:32 pm

what I think is irrelevant in decision making process of the dodger brass, so a hypothetical lineup of Dozier added dodgers come 2017 should look something like this.

vs RHP

1. L LF Toles
2. L SS Seager
3. R 3B Turner
4. L 1B Gonzo
5. R 2B Dozier
6. R RF Puig
7. L CF Joc - I do not like Joc in the 8th hole. he needs to see fastballs.
8. S C Grandal - we could swap Yaz with Puig, but again Puig could fall back into his bad habits of free swinging here.

vs LHP

1. R RF Puig
2. L SS Seager
3. R 2B Dozier
4. R 3B Turner - basically going R-L-R-L for top 4 with his reverse splits.
5. R 1B SVS or Ruf
6. R LF Thompson
7. L CF Joc - we are gonna live and die with his growth here for his glove.
8. S C Grandal

if we do well with this lineup, it has got to be a collective effort and not Dozier having a repeat season of the last one. he will get the credit tho, even if he regresses as long as we perform well. my feeling is that Puig-Thompson-SVS/Ruf are the trio that will make or break our next season's ability to hit the lefties.
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Dodgers' Involvement in Dozier Trade Talks 

Post#285 » by Ranma » Sun Dec 18, 2016 6:56 am

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Insider Trading 

Post#286 » by Ranma » Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:10 pm

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Trade Talks Coming to a Close? 

Post#287 » by Ranma » Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:34 pm

The Dodgers' current offer is supposedly De Leon straight up for Dozier with the organization "not blinking" in the stare-down with Minnesota. If the Twins want multiple prospects, they're going to have to move off of De Leon and settle for Stewart, Calhoun, and a 3rd non-premium prospect.

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Re: 2016-2017 off season thread. 

Post#288 » by AGAVE » Sun Jan 1, 2017 4:48 pm

We have a healthy farm system now.
I would think our FO holds more value in what we currently have in respects to just including players for the sake of acquiring someone; ie : Dozier.
While watching this play out, my sense is is that we desire to use our minor league guys for more valued returns down the road.
Just my opinion
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Market Inefficiency in Prospect Valuation 

Post#289 » by Ranma » Sun Jan 1, 2017 7:32 pm

AGAVE wrote:We have a healthy farm system now.
I would think our FO holds more value in what we currently have in respects to just including players for the sake of acquiring someone; ie : Dozier.
While watching this play out, my sense is is that we desire to use our minor league guys for more valued returns down the road.
Just my opinion


It's funny. I was literally just thinking about this before I saw your post. I also get the feeling that the Dodgers' front office has identified a marketplace inefficiency in how other teams value prospects. When you see the haul of prospects the Diamondbacks traded for Shelby Miller, what the Red Sox gave up for Chris Sale, and the package sent by the Nationals for Adam Eaton, it seems obvious to prospect-lovers like myself that teams are undervaluing the worth of prospects, panicking to sacrifice the future for the present, and/or do not have much faith in their own talent development.

That opinion doesn't apply to every team equally as I think the Red Sox likely made a deal like what the Dodgers did for Reddick and Hill in trading a package of prospects they weren't really high on at either peak value or before they could devalue even further. In fact, I think Boston did a better job in that respect even though I included them among the teams that overpaid. I only say that in that they had to pay a bigger premium in order to jump in front of Washington in the trade talks. Like I've said before, I think Moncada is a bit overrated even though he's a good prospect, but he's still considered the best prospect in baseball, so his trade value was super high. Still, players like Sale aren't made available everyday so I get why they had to pull the trigger, so I'm contradicting myself a bit.

However, the point is that teams, in general, are not making the most of their prospects whether it is developing them or holding onto them in trade despite there being dollar values associated to draft picks and the premium placed on cost-controlled players. Going back to the Dodgers, we've been doing a fairly good job of not trading away our elite prospects and it has already paid dividends as we have Corey Seager and Julio Urias contributing to our postseason while Joc Pederson is providing solid defense in CF along with his power potential.

Teams see that and now seem to place a priority to acquire employees from our organization with previous accesss to our internal prospect evaluation. The Miami Marlins have Mattingly and Wallach on staff while the Twins hired Jeff Pickler, an analytics guy who worked with Friedman in the Dodgers' front office. Teams want to know what prospects the Dodgers value highly internally apparently because they're impressed with what we're doing with our developmental pipeline. They want a Seager, Urias, or Pederson instead of settling for a Montas, Holmes, or Cotton even though I like Jharel Cotton.

The Marlins were asking for the moon in Jose Fernandez talks, which was reported to include Urias and De Leon plus more. The Twins want Bellinger in addition to De Leon. I'm glad to hear that the Dodgers are reluctant to part with our best prospects as I think we should be the ones to benefit from developing our prospects instead of doing it for other teams.
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Re: 2016-2017 off season thread. 

Post#290 » by Neddy » Wed Jan 4, 2017 5:09 am

I don't see Dozier doing anything close to what he had done in 2016 ever. if he comes over to the dodger stadium, he would instantly lose quite a few HRs from the ball park size, then altitude, the marine layer of LA at nights, and being a very inefficient flyball hitter he is, our ballpark still have one of the most generous foul grounds in all baseball. plus he is a dead pull hitter who would easily be countered with NLW's propensity of extreme defensive shifts, if any ground ball was to occur. my guess is, if he is in dodger uni come 2017's opening day, he would post somewhere close to .250 BA and .750 OPS with 20 HRs and 30 doubles. one can say those numbers are ridiculously low considering he just hit more than 40 last season, but remember that the second best effort in his career was 28 in Minn's Target Field. unless he is on steroids, after every abnormally positive season in any category, there comes an extreme normalizing negative season to balance the statistical normality. as of now I prefer a platoon of Kike and Micah. i love Micah Johnson's speed and believe he could be a designated runner come playoff time, a la Dave Roberts for the RedSox in their pursuit of WS ring years ago.

on the other hand, knowing Urias is probably on innings restriction, we need minimum 6 starters. luckly, we have 8. problem is we need to figure out who goes where, and I wonder what Kazmir's medical record shows. if healthy, he would definately get the 5th spot. but I have to wonder that he may not be okay and will pull the re-enactment of Ryu from the last season, or entire tenture of Jason Schmidt as a dodger. the next in line would be McCarthy and I feel like he would stick. then for replacement act of when Urias runs out of his innings limit, would have to be De Leon with Ryu being a late season injury replacement. unfortunately from what I have read, Ryu has been rehabbing in South Korea with a trainer and he has just started tossing 20 meters casually. I am not sure how many of you guys get the metric system, but 20 meters is about 65 feet. basically from the mound to plate. he is "tossing" at that distance. I used be a believer of Ryu as for one, he had a long history of pitching through pain in his years in korea, but tossing at 20 meters does not build any confidence. hopefully he can be ready when say, (unfortunately and wish it wouldn't) Maeda finally blows out his elbow. when healthy, Ryu is the better pitcher between him and Maeda. preferably, it is to be able to fill in from various small and insignificant injuries of multiple pitchers and everyone will be ready for the playoffs and we would enjoy the fortune of having to choose from a large pool of qualified SPs.
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Coming to a Head One Way or Another 

Post#291 » by Ranma » Thu Jan 5, 2017 4:25 am

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Re: Coming to a Head One Way or Another 

Post#292 » by Neddy » Thu Jan 5, 2017 4:38 am

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they know Dozier's worth will never be any higher. keeping him wont do a jack for their current situation and will go a long way to flip him for prospects regardless how many or how few they get. no matter what Dozier is never going to retire as a Twin unless his performance plummets in his contract year and he signs to a dirt cheap long term deal. knowing that, they will trade him and we still have the best offer, which is one De Leon. I think we are still overpaying. no way Brian ever reproduces his last season or even the year before. as I have mentioned before, i see him as a .250/.750 /20 HR /30 Db guy in dodger stadium.

personally, I don't want him. I would much rather gamble with Kike/Micah platoon as Doxier is an average defender at best with an abnormaly inflated numbers who will never be able to repeat his performance. I wouldn't even be surprised if he gets found to be a user of a PED by the end of next season. I actually like Micah's minor league stats. he could solve our lead off issue easily against RHP, then Kike can get some steady at bats against LHP as a 2B then add more at bats as a utility player all over the field. his versatility can help us to keep 1 less IFers in order to accommodate the excess in the OF, with Andre serving as a premium LH pinch hitter with SVS and Ruf covering back up 1B as well as corner OF and primary RH pinch hitting.
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Curse of the Keystone 

Post#293 » by Ranma » Thu Jan 5, 2017 5:07 am

Agreed. Dozier's trade value will never be any higher than it is right now. While I've stopped harping about the Dee Gordon trade, I can't help but think how the Dodgers traded an established second baseman only to now be in the market for one to fill the void they opened up resulting from that aforementioned deal. Yeah, I know Gordon tested positive for PED and was given a big contract, but we haven't really made out with the return we got.

While I like most, if not all, of the players we acquired, we haven't gotten the most out of any of Chris Hatcher, Kike Hernandez, Austin Barnes, or Andrew Heaney. Hatcher and Hernandez have struggled to give us consistent production while Barnes hasn't been given much of an opportunity and Heaney was dealt for a few lackluster years of Howie Kendrick.

This whole situation just bugs me and has me thinking about a previous regime's mis-handling of 2B where the loss of Jody Reed led to dealing for Delino DeShields, which cost all-time great Pedro Martinez. On top of that, we signed Orlando Hudson as an unrestricted free agent, which cost us a first-round draft pick in the 2009 draft that would have afforded us the opportunity to select A.J. Pollock, Shelby Miller, or Mike Trout.

Geez, talk about curse of the keystone! I'm not looking forward to giving up Jose De Leon for Brian Dozier, regardless, but given our franchise history in dealing with 2B, I'm even more reluctant to make such a trade.
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Put my in Neduardo's Camp 

Post#294 » by Quake Griffin » Thu Jan 5, 2017 2:48 pm

Couldn't agree more with Neddy.

Let's go internally.
I bet a better 2B pops up at the deadline.

lol at Brian "Josh Reddick in the LA lights and pressure" Dozier.
He aint hittin 40 here....I got my money on it.

Let an idiot like Artie make this move.
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Rumor and Waiver Wire Moves 

Post#295 » by Ranma » Sat Jan 7, 2017 10:24 pm

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Re: 2016-2017 off season thread. 

Post#296 » by Quake Griffin » Sun Jan 8, 2017 6:23 pm

Just saw Neftali Feliz had a swinging strike rate of 14% last year. It does seem like an outlier for him but maybe there's something new in his repertoire that brought that on?


I'm game for bringing him in on that alone.
Swinging strike rate is one of the few indicators of future success at this level. I'd bank more on it to predict success than for it to fail (and it has failed before...I acknowledge it).

bring him in. I'm so **** sick of Baez.
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Re: 2016-2017 off season thread. 

Post#297 » by AGAVE » Mon Jan 9, 2017 5:29 am

Will this signing be the sign that our FO is passing on Dozier :
Jose Miguel Fernandez
I am totally guessing on this, but depth at 2'nd base now includes Fernandez.
Unless he is projected to be included within a trade.
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Feliz Has Similar Concerns to Blanton and Baez 

Post#298 » by Ranma » Mon Jan 9, 2017 7:48 am

Quake Griffin wrote:Just saw Neftali Feliz had a swinging strike rate of 14% last year. It does seem like an outlier for him but maybe there's something new in his repertoire that brought that on?


I'm game for bringing him in on that alone.
Swinging strike rate is one of the few indicators of future success at this level. I'd bank more on it to predict success than for it to fail (and it has failed before...I acknowledge it).

bring him in. I'm so **** sick of Baez.


I also find the idea of signing Feliz on a prove-it deal to be a sexy option, but he has the same concerns as Baez and Blanton in being susceptible to giving up the homerun. While his velocity spiked back up after TJ surgery to help increase his swinging strike-rate, his control apparently is still questionable, which profiles similarly to Baez.

With the likes of Chris Hatcher, Baez, and Feliz, we'd have quite a set of right-handed flame-throwers but all three have been inconsistent with their command thus far into their respective careers. Having said that, I'm not at all opposed to bringing Feliz aboard, depending on the cost, but I wouldn't consider him to be a reliable set-up option for our bullpen at this point.
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Nothing to Do with JMF 

Post#299 » by Ranma » Mon Jan 9, 2017 7:58 am

AGAVE wrote:Will this signing be the sign that our FO is passing on Dozier :
Jose Miguel Fernandez
I am totally guessing on this, but depth at 2'nd base now includes Fernandez.
Unless he is projected to be included within a trade.


I gave my opinion at length about the signing of Jose Miguel Fernandez in the Draft/International Signing thread, but the short of it is that signing Fernandez doesn't look to really have anything to do with Dozier. He's signed to a minor-league deal and, while he was once thought to be close to being MLB-ready previously, he hasn't played regularly for 2 years now. Plus, he's a left-handed bat that does not project to provide much power despite being considered an advanced hitter with patience at the plate.

There are also questions about his glove despite him being looked at as a utility player for the Dodgers in the short-term. The bottom line is that he has little, if any, similarities to Brian Dozier in terms of profile and expectations.


p.s. I just read elsewhere that signing Fernandez could be thought of as making a Dozier deal more likely in allowing Willie Calhoun to be included in the package along with Jose De Leon.
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Re: 2016-2017 off season thread. 

Post#300 » by AGAVE » Mon Jan 9, 2017 4:16 pm

"I just read elsewhere that signing Fernandez could be thought of as making a Dozier deal more likely in allowing Willie Calhoun to be included in the package along with Jose De Leon."

Now that seems to make more sense.
Thx for that angle
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