I was worried that teams would have money to offer Shohei Otani big bucks before the next international signing period but quite a lot of teams have actually spent significant portions of their hard-capped bonus pool. If Otani still doesn't want to wait 2 more years and is willing to pass up a $100-million deal that would be available to him by then in order to come to play in MLB sooner, he can wait until July 2, 2018 for the Dodgers to offer up to a maximum signing bonus of $7.125 $8.3125 million after paying the posting fee.
I want to counter a few points against the likelihood of him coming over sooner rather than later.
First, Otani just came back this season in late July to play in NPB due to injury, so he has the option of waiting, training, negotiating, and visiting with other teams for about the same amount of time next year so that he can play in MLB 1½ seasons sooner.
Second, the Dodgers' maximum offer would be only $1.5 $1.75 million less than the $8.625-million $10.0625-million maximum a small-market club would be able to offer him. Plus, if Darvish enjoys his experience with the Dodgers, he'd likely have positive words about the organization if and when he talks with Otani. The Japanese connection of Darvish, Maeda, and Roberts should be an advantage in the pursuit of Otani.
Third, while Otani could wait until he turns 25 to sign a 9-figure contract, his Japanese team would get nothing since the posting system would no longer apply to him at that point. I suspect Otani wants to pay back his club for accommodating him while also fulfilling his desire to come over sooner, so it seems to me that he'd still be inclined to come over sooner rather than later, especially given previous talk of his desire to learn and compete at the highest level as well as his relative disregard for money.
However, apparently at the behest of Major League Baseball, there is currently no longer a posting agreement with Nippon Professional Baseball. NPB is pushing for a higher posting fee while MLB wants to do away with the posting system altogether in order to encourage young Japanese talent to sign with MLB out of high school instead of joining an NPB team like Otani did, otherwise, such prospects would risk delaying their MLB dreams for years almost a decade (9 years). MLB is apparently willing to sacrifice the opportunity to bring Otani over sooner in order to push this agenda.
Just like the Dodgers have been targeted in revisions to the new CBA, MLB seems to be vindictive in making an example out of Otani so that future Japanese prep prospects will think twice before passing on the opportunity to sign with MLB teams right out of high school. Otani now cannot sign with an MLB team until a new posting agreement is worked out or until his current NPB contract expires when he turns 25 in 2 years. If Once a new posting system is instituted before then, I fully expect Otani to now jump at the chance to come over.
I was previously concerned with the Dodgers being at a noticeable disadvantage in pursuing Otani when that has been the opposite. Whenever Shohei is available and eligible, we should be well positioned to offer him a financially competitive offer whether as a J2 signing or an unrestricted free agent.Bob Nightengale, USA Today (7/27/17)So are the Rangers willing to abandon life without Darvish, and perhaps give up any chance to sign Otani, Japan’s version of Babe Ruth, who absolutely idolizes Darvish?
Yu Darvish: Why the Rangers Would Be Foolish to Trade Their AceMike Axisa, CBSsports.com (7/5/17)All of this week's international signing period activity figures to have a pretty significant impact on the upcoming offseason. Japanese right-hander Shohei Otani, the best player in the world not under contract with an MLB team, is subject to the international hard cap because he is only 23 years old. He'll have to wait two years, until he's 25, to be exempt from the hard cap. Otani doesn't want to have to wait that long. Neither do MLB teams. But those are the rules.
The way I see it, Otani coming over to MLB this offseason was unlikely to start with. The hard cap severely limited his earning potential, and my thinking was he'd prefer to stay home in Japan the next two years and make good money rather than come to MLB to make relative peanuts. Now that just about every MLB team has maxed out their international bonus space this year, I think it closes the door completely on Otani coming this winter. There's not enough financial incentive.
Why This Week Made It Less Likely Shohei Otani Will Come to MLB This OffseasonJim Allen, Kyodo News (7/7/17)With the last posting agreement having been scrapped at MLB's request, NPB and MLB are now negotiating a replacement to the agreement that permits Japanese professionals under contract to move to the majors.
They can't understand that a player like Otani, who wants to learn to hit and throw major league fastballs while he's young, would want to give up hundreds of millions of dollars instead of waiting two years.
"Money is not the issue for Otani," Fighters manager Hideki Kuriyama has said repeatedly the past year. "His decision won't be based on money."
What MLB does get is that without a posting system, Japan's next high school superstar may think twice about turning pro in NPB. Without a posting system, most Japanese pros will be nearly 30 before they can file for free agency. That means they will have missed the opportunity Otani currently has: of adjusting to MLB pitching and hitting at a young age.
When MLB's new international signing rules were announced in December, a senior MLB executive told Kyodo News he thought the rules would discourage more Japanese amateurs from playing in NPB.
It is not a stretch to see MLB jettisoning the chance to bring Otani to the United States now by scrapping the posting system altogether -- if MLB clubs think they can throw open the tap on Japan's amateur market.
Baseball: Posting System, Not Cash Hurdle for Otani
