Game 13: Timberwolves @ Cavs 11/13/2022

[toooskies]

There were multiple times in the first three quarters when the Wolves had four or five defenders in the paint. People will say the Cavs weren't running an offense, but it's nearly impossible to do so when you're being defended like that.

Our only true bench shooter is Love (Wade should start).

What changed? Garland being unstoppable or the TWolves putting it in cruise control, because the only thing our finishing line-up had going for it was some toughness and energy from guys who JBB hasn't used much. Certainly not spacing.

Hopefully this showing gets DG rolling, but still want to see it with Mitchell in the lineup and without the desperation of being down 24 and playing with guys who struggle to crack JBB's rotation.

In the fourth, we were attacking the Gobert drop coverage on PNRs and Garland was hitting his pull-up threes. Not really something we were doing consistently in the first three quarters.

Then they were forced to start stepping up and Garland was getting by. We played good defense, but also got lucky with FT misses and some bad mistakes by the TWolves.

Yep, the lineup that made the run was Garland/Okoro/Stevens/Osman/Lopez. JBB was trying to get Mobley to step it up and when he finally realized he didn't have it tonight and sat him for an extended period, and then we went on our run.

Some people were putting Mobley in the all-star game this preseason but I haven't really seen anything to convince me that he's developed much from where he was at the end of last season, which was pretty close to where he was at the start of last season. Specifically, he didn't add enough strength to be a legit C. When Allen is out I think we should be running RoLo out there in his place most nights.

I can understand starting Love, but the first quarter crash happened when Love usually subs in and gives the offense a lift.

[JonFromVA]

What changed? Garland being unstoppable or the TWolves putting it in cruise control, because the only thing our finishing line-up had going for it was some toughness and energy from guys who JBB hasn't used much. Certainly not spacing.

Hopefully this showing gets DG rolling, but still want to see it with Mitchell in the lineup and without the desperation of being down 24 and playing with guys who struggle to crack JBB's rotation.

In the fourth, we were attacking the Gobert drop coverage on PNRs and Garland was hitting his pull-up threes. Not really something we were doing consistently in the first three quarters.

Then they were forced to start stepping up and Garland was getting by. We played good defense, but also got lucky with FT misses and some bad mistakes by the TWolves.

Yep, the lineup that made the run was Garland/Okoro/Stevens/Osman/Lopez. JBB was trying to get Mobley to step it up and when he finally realized he didn't have it tonight and sat him for an extended period, and then we went on our run.

Some people were putting Mobley in the all-star game this preseason but I haven't really seen anything to convince me that he's developed much from where he was at the end of last season, which was pretty close to where he was at the start of last season. Specifically, he didn't add enough strength to be a legit C. When Allen is out I think we should be running RoLo out there in his place most nights.

I can understand starting Love, but the first quarter crash happened when Love usually subs in and gives the offense a lift.

Mobley is stronger and we should let him learn to use that strength bullying guys smaller than him while continuing to protect him from players bigger than him. His dribbling and shooting hasn't taken a step, but he's improved a bit in the 0 to 10ft range which is something.

He's still contesting a bunch of shots and is currently tied for the most contested 3pters - which is not normal for a 7-footer.

Just because some people have said Evan has a superstar level ceiling doesn't mean it's true or that his path to getting there will be the same as other superstars. The only thing we should take for granted is his body is going to continue to fill out, he's going to continue working on his strength and conditioning, and he's going to be constantly gaining experience.

That should take him a good ways even if his handle and shot don't improve much.

[ijspeelman]

In the fourth, we were attacking the Gobert drop coverage on PNRs and Garland was hitting his pull-up threes. Not really something we were doing consistently in the first three quarters.

Then they were forced to start stepping up and Garland was getting by. We played good defense, but also got lucky with FT misses and some bad mistakes by the TWolves.

Yep, the lineup that made the run was Garland/Okoro/Stevens/Osman/Lopez. JBB was trying to get Mobley to step it up and when he finally realized he didn't have it tonight and sat him for an extended period, and then we went on our run.

Some people were putting Mobley in the all-star game this preseason but I haven't really seen anything to convince me that he's developed much from where he was at the end of last season, which was pretty close to where he was at the start of last season. Specifically, he didn't add enough strength to be a legit C. When Allen is out I think we should be running RoLo out there in his place most nights.

I can understand starting Love, but the first quarter crash happened when Love usually subs in and gives the offense a lift.

Mobley is stronger and we should let him learn to use that strength bullying guys smaller than him while continuing to protect him from players bigger than him. His dribbling and shooting hasn't taken a step, but he's improved a bit in the 0 to 10ft range which is something.

He's still contesting a bunch of shots and is currently tied for the most contested 3pters - which is not normal for a 7-footer.

Just because some people have said Evan has a superstar level ceiling doesn't mean it's true or that his path to getting there will be the same as other superstars. The only thing we should take for granted is his body is going to continue to fill out, he's going to continue working on his strength and conditioning, and he's going to be constantly gaining experience.

That should take him a good ways even if his handle and shot don't improve much.

Mobley is really struggling with his jump shot to start the season. Hopefully this is not the new norm, but he keeps taking them so I assume it will even out eventually.

He is also still worried about finishing around big men. He loves his pump fakes, but they haven't been leading anywhere because I assume they are in the scouting report.

He seems quicker and steadier off the dribble, but he keeps getting called for travelling.

I definitely think he's smarter on defense and not over-helping when appropriate. He still struggles against big men when so close to the rim, but everywhere else he's still amazing.

[JonFromVA]

Yep, the lineup that made the run was Garland/Okoro/Stevens/Osman/Lopez. JBB was trying to get Mobley to step it up and when he finally realized he didn't have it tonight and sat him for an extended period, and then we went on our run.

Some people were putting Mobley in the all-star game this preseason but I haven't really seen anything to convince me that he's developed much from where he was at the end of last season, which was pretty close to where he was at the start of last season. Specifically, he didn't add enough strength to be a legit C. When Allen is out I think we should be running RoLo out there in his place most nights.

I can understand starting Love, but the first quarter crash happened when Love usually subs in and gives the offense a lift.

Mobley is stronger and we should let him learn to use that strength bullying guys smaller than him while continuing to protect him from players bigger than him. His dribbling and shooting hasn't taken a step, but he's improved a bit in the 0 to 10ft range which is something.

He's still contesting a bunch of shots and is currently tied for the most contested 3pters - which is not normal for a 7-footer.

Just because some people have said Evan has a superstar level ceiling doesn't mean it's true or that his path to getting there will be the same as other superstars. The only thing we should take for granted is his body is going to continue to fill out, he's going to continue working on his strength and conditioning, and he's going to be constantly gaining experience.

That should take him a good ways even if his handle and shot don't improve much.

Mobley is really struggling with his jump shot to start the season. Hopefully this is not the new norm, but he keeps taking them so I assume it will even out eventually.

He is also still worried about finishing around big men. He loves his pump fakes, but they haven't been leading anywhere because I assume they are in the scouting report.

He seems quicker and steadier off the dribble, but he keeps getting called for travelling.

I definitely think he's smarter on defense and not over-helping when appropriate. He still struggles against big men when so close to the rim, but everywhere else he's still amazing.

Our slow pace and packed paint likely does him no favors because rather than asking him to get the ball 18ft from the basket and try to fight and dribble his way through a crowd to get up a shot, I imagine he'd do quite well with some more quick hitting type plays where he only needs to take a couple of dribbles to get to the rim.

So, sure, pair him with Love or Wade to get him some space to work - but against a C he or Love/Wade can handle..

[jbk1234]

There were multiple times in the first three quarters when the Wolves had four or five defenders in the paint. People will say the Cavs weren't running an offense, but it's nearly impossible to do so when you're being defended like that.

Our only true bench shooter is Love (Wade should start).

Forgot about Cedi who's shooting 38% on 6.5 attempts per 36, and LeVert is shooting over 40% from three this year on almost 5 attempts per 36 if you're pushing him to the bench. We're 12th in made threes per game despite being 26th in the league in pace. (All stats before you count tonight's game.)

The issue tonight was almost exclusively our defense, Russell and Towns were 22/29 combined.

Are other teams staying with Cedi and LeVert out there, or are they willing to live with them hitting it from out there?

You're seeing four/five guys in the paint because other teams don't trust a one month sample size, from two historically streaky players, either.

[jbk1234]

There were multiple times in the first three quarters when the Wolves had four or five defenders in the paint. People will say the Cavs weren't running an offense, but it's nearly impossible to do so when you're being defended like that.

Our only true bench shooter is Love (Wade should start).

What changed? Garland being unstoppable or the TWolves putting it in cruise control, because the only thing our finishing line-up had going for it was some toughness and energy from guys who JBB hasn't used much. Certainly not spacing.

Hopefully this showing gets DG rolling, but still want to see it with Mitchell in the lineup and without the desperation of being down 24 and playing with guys who struggle to crack JBB's rotation.

Garland deciding he'd do it himself in the 4th quarter, and actually hitting all those threes, is all that changed. But it's not scalable. The fundamental problem is that Garland cannot space for himself. The acquisition of Mitchell helped with that, but if Wade is gonna Windler out in terms of health, the Cavs need more shooters.

[JonFromVA]

There were multiple times in the first three quarters when the Wolves had four or five defenders in the paint. People will say the Cavs weren't running an offense, but it's nearly impossible to do so when you're being defended like that.

Our only true bench shooter is Love (Wade should start).

What changed? Garland being unstoppable or the TWolves putting it in cruise control, because the only thing our finishing line-up had going for it was some toughness and energy from guys who JBB hasn't used much. Certainly not spacing.

Hopefully this showing gets DG rolling, but still want to see it with Mitchell in the lineup and without the desperation of being down 24 and playing with guys who struggle to crack JBB's rotation.

Garland deciding he'd do it himself in the 4th quarter, and actually hitting all those threes, is all that changed. But it's not scalable. The fundamental problem is that Garland cannot space for himself. The acquisition of Mitchell helped with that, but if Wade is gonna Windler out in terms of health, the Cavs need more shooters.

JBB has gotten away with playing a bunch of klunky lineups with lousy spacing because we've been able to put defenses in a compromised position via 2-man game, ball movement, or Kevin Love catching fire. It doesn't work if Garland isn't shooting and finishing well, the defense can just overplay the aspect of his game that isn't working.

What they can do without Mitchell out there is force someone else to beat them and the TWolves likely lacked a combination of desire to play that hard sitting on a big lead plus they're not good on defense and seem to lack someone who they could use to just harass a player like DG.

And of course defense matters, but I think once we get Allen and Mitchell back we'll be more than fine as long as Darius holds up his end.

Mathematically, we need our SF to shoot 39% on his open 3pt looks to sustain our current #2 offensive rating - not a high bar.

[ijspeelman]

What changed? Garland being unstoppable or the TWolves putting it in cruise control, because the only thing our finishing line-up had going for it was some toughness and energy from guys who JBB hasn't used much. Certainly not spacing.

Hopefully this showing gets DG rolling, but still want to see it with Mitchell in the lineup and without the desperation of being down 24 and playing with guys who struggle to crack JBB's rotation.

Garland deciding he'd do it himself in the 4th quarter, and actually hitting all those threes, is all that changed. But it's not scalable. The fundamental problem is that Garland cannot space for himself. The acquisition of Mitchell helped with that, but if Wade is gonna Windler out in terms of health, the Cavs need more shooters.

JBB has gotten away with playing a bunch of klunky lineups with lousy spacing because we've been able to put defenses in a compromised position via 2-man game, ball movement, or Kevin Love catching fire. It doesn't work if Garland isn't shooting and finishing well, the defense can just overplay the aspect of his game that isn't working.

What they can do without Mitchell out there is force someone else to beat them and the TWolves likely lacked a combination of desire to play that hard sitting on a big lead plus they're not good on defense and seem to lack someone who they could use to just harass a player like DG.

And of course defense matters, but I think once we get Allen and Mitchell back we'll be more than fine as long as Darius holds up his end.

Mathematically, we need our SF to shoot 39% on his open 3pt looks to sustain our current #2 offensive rating - not a high bar.

This out of the scope of this particular game, but its definitely not a given that Cedi (38.8%), LeVert (42.4%), or Wade (50%) can hold 39% for the entirety of the season. I think Wade is the best bet to do it only because we have less historical data for his shot and thus it has a higher chance to swing higher or lower than Cedi or LeVert. That said, the 50% could just be an incredible hot streak and he falls all the way back to 35-37%.

[JonFromVA]

Garland deciding he'd do it himself in the 4th quarter, and actually hitting all those threes, is all that changed. But it's not scalable. The fundamental problem is that Garland cannot space for himself. The acquisition of Mitchell helped with that, but if Wade is gonna Windler out in terms of health, the Cavs need more shooters.

JBB has gotten away with playing a bunch of klunky lineups with lousy spacing because we've been able to put defenses in a compromised position via 2-man game, ball movement, or Kevin Love catching fire. It doesn't work if Garland isn't shooting and finishing well, the defense can just overplay the aspect of his game that isn't working.

What they can do without Mitchell out there is force someone else to beat them and the TWolves likely lacked a combination of desire to play that hard sitting on a big lead plus they're not good on defense and seem to lack someone who they could use to just harass a player like DG.

And of course defense matters, but I think once we get Allen and Mitchell back we'll be more than fine as long as Darius holds up his end.

Mathematically, we need our SF to shoot 39% on his open 3pt looks to sustain our current #2 offensive rating - not a high bar.

This out of the scope of this particular game, but its definitely not a given that Cedi (38.8%), LeVert (42.4%), or Wade (50%) can hold 39% for the entirety of the season. I think Wade is the best bet to do it only because we have less historical data for his shot and thus it has a higher chance to swing higher or lower than Cedi or LeVert. That said, the 50% could just be an incredible hot streak and he falls all the way back to 35-37%.

It's ok to hunt for that player on any given night, because once you find him the D will stop leaving him wide open and you can get back to business. We're not actually going to create all our offense through that player, the 39% number just gives an idea of what would sustain our offense at the current level if we had to.

Given we currently lead the league in net rating at +7.1, we have some margin for error.

[toooskies]

There were multiple times in the first three quarters when the Wolves had four or five defenders in the paint. People will say the Cavs weren't running an offense, but it's nearly impossible to do so when you're being defended like that.

Our only true bench shooter is Love (Wade should start).

Forgot about Cedi who's shooting 38% on 6.5 attempts per 36, and LeVert is shooting over 40% from three this year on almost 5 attempts per 36 if you're pushing him to the bench. We're 12th in made threes per game despite being 26th in the league in pace. (All stats before you count tonight's game.)

The issue tonight was almost exclusively our defense, Russell and Towns were 22/29 combined.

Are other teams staying with Cedi and LeVert out there, or are they willing to live with them hitting it from out there?

You're seeing four/five guys in the paint because other teams don't trust a one month sample size, from two historically streaky players, either.

I'm glad other teams are packing the paint and letting us shoot 40% from three as a team.

[jbk1234]

Forgot about Cedi who's shooting 38% on 6.5 attempts per 36, and LeVert is shooting over 40% from three this year on almost 5 attempts per 36 if you're pushing him to the bench. We're 12th in made threes per game despite being 26th in the league in pace. (All stats before you count tonight's game.)

The issue tonight was almost exclusively our defense, Russell and Towns were 22/29 combined.

Are other teams staying with Cedi and LeVert out there, or are they willing to live with them hitting it from out there?

You're seeing four/five guys in the paint because other teams don't trust a one month sample size, from two historically streaky players, either.

I'm glad other teams are packing the paint and letting us shoot 40% from three as a team.

I'm not going to get into how averages work, or how hot the team started from 3, because I know that you know this.

[toooskies]

Are other teams staying with Cedi and LeVert out there, or are they willing to live with them hitting it from out there?

You're seeing four/five guys in the paint because other teams don't trust a one month sample size, from two historically streaky players, either.

I'm glad other teams are packing the paint and letting us shoot 40% from three as a team.

I'm not going to get into how averages work, or how hot the team started from 3, because I know that you know this.

We've also been over 40% from three in three of our last four games.

[jbk1234]

I'm glad other teams are packing the paint and letting us shoot 40% from three as a team.

I'm not going to get into how averages work, or how hot the team started from 3, because I know that you know this.

We've also been over 40% from three in three of our last four games.

Only because Garland converted 10/15 (most of them coming in the 4th quarter against the Wolves) and Mitchell had two good shooting games, on really high volume, against the Kings and Warriors.

If you look at Cedi, Stevens, and LeVert's three point makes over the last 4 games, you see exactly why opposing teams aren't guarding them out there.

[JonFromVA]

I'm not going to get into how averages work, or how hot the team started from 3, because I know that you know this.

We've also been over 40% from three in three of our last four games.

Only because Garland converted 10/15 (most of them coming in the 4th quarter against the Wolves) and Mitchell had two good shooting games, on really high volume, against the Kings and Warriors.

If you look at Cedi, Stevens, and LeVert's three point makes over the last 4 games, you see exactly why opposing teams aren't guarding them out there.

I wouldn't bet money on LeVert sustaining 42.4% or Wade 50% from 3pt; but I do expect a bump in team 3pt% from at first the additional threat Mitchell creates and then eventually from synergy as they learn to play together. And it took that one hot game from Garland to get his season 3pt% back to where it should be.

It's a long season with probably a lot more injuries to come, and the best 3pt shooting team only shot 37.9% from 3pt last season and I wouldn't count on us being that - but if our worst shooters are being given wide open shots, that is going to pull our %'s up. That leaves it up to Garland, Mitchell, Osman, and Love to continue to take and make tougher shots in higher volume.

Which seems possible. If our shooters had better gravity and we didn't play Allen and Mobley together, we'd expect to see the paint open up more. Instead Caris LeVert is going to get some great looks.