Will they resign sexton?

[JonFromVA]

Do y’all think if a team signs him to a 18 to 20 contract the Cavs will match

I do. If another team wants the Cavs to blink, I think they'll need to offer $25M+ or put together some sort of poison pill offer.

Publicly their stance is they want Collin to establish somebody actually thinks he's worth the money he's asking, which is always tricky in an RFA situation unless a team is willing to mad overpay. And while I've seen some conflicting rumors, some of them suggest that if Collin was happy with 18-20 he'd be signed already.

The bolded is a real red flag for me. You turn down $20M per over 5 years to bet on yourself, play poorly, get injured, your team plays better without you, and you still want more than $20M per? You didn't win that bet. In fact, we even went out and got LeVert. If this all ends with Sexton getting $20M+ from the Cavs anyway, then I don't understand the thinking at all.

He has every right to try to get more and/or get in to a position to earn more; but once the market has spoken - and it's time to choose, that's when you hope he actually does choose rather than go in to hold outs and other garbage.

And I do think trading for LeVert was a way to eliminate whatever leverage Collin may have been able to hold over our heads.

[jbk1234]

I do. If another team wants the Cavs to blink, I think they'll need to offer $25M+ or put together some sort of poison pill offer.

Publicly their stance is they want Collin to establish somebody actually thinks he's worth the money he's asking, which is always tricky in an RFA situation unless a team is willing to mad overpay. And while I've seen some conflicting rumors, some of them suggest that if Collin was happy with 18-20 he'd be signed already.

The bolded is a real red flag for me. You turn down $20M per over 5 years to bet on yourself, play poorly, get injured, your team plays better without you, and you still want more than $20M per? You didn't win that bet. In fact, we even went out and got LeVert. If this all ends with Sexton getting $20M+ from the Cavs anyway, then I don't understand the thinking at all.

He has every right to try to get more and/or get in to a position to earn more; but once the market has spoken - and it's time to choose, that's when you hope he actually does choose rather than go in to hold outs and other garbage.

And I do think trading for LeVert was a way to eliminate whatever leverage Collin may have been able to hold over our heads.

He has that right, but it also reveals what his priorities are, and his priorities should inform the Cavs in terms of their decision. Players can do what's best for themselves regardless of the team, what's best for the team, or they can try to balance the two while recognizing that team success and individual success are usually dependent upon one another. While I don't expect a roster full of team-first guys, it does make it easier to build a team when most of the players fall into that third category.

One of the reasons I'm entirely comfortable with Sexton walking for nothing is that I've seen very little evidence over his rookie contract that he cares more about the team's success than his individual success, and if money is going to be the lever to get him to respond in that regard, things could go very badly once he's already been paid.

[JonFromVA]

The bolded is a real red flag for me. You turn down $20M per over 5 years to bet on yourself, play poorly, get injured, your team plays better without you, and you still want more than $20M per? You didn't win that bet. In fact, we even went out and got LeVert. If this all ends with Sexton getting $20M+ from the Cavs anyway, then I don't understand the thinking at all.

He has every right to try to get more and/or get in to a position to earn more; but once the market has spoken - and it's time to choose, that's when you hope he actually does choose rather than go in to hold outs and other garbage.

And I do think trading for LeVert was a way to eliminate whatever leverage Collin may have been able to hold over our heads.

He has that right, but it also reveals what his priorities are, and his priorities should inform the Cavs in terms of their decision. Players can do what's best for themselves regardless of the team, what's best for the team, or they can try to balance the two while recognizing that team success and individual success are usually dependent upon one another. While I don't expect a roster full of team-first guys, it does make it easier to build a team when most of the players fall into that third category.

One of the reasons I'm entirely comfortable with Sexton walking for nothing is that I've seen very little evidence over his rookie contract that he cares more about the team's success than his individual success, and if money is going to be the lever to get him to respond in that regard, things could go very badly once he's already been paid.

Oh, I think Collin cares, and for now this is all just negotiations. The moment it actually harms the team, then we'll have cause to question his priorities. But restricted free-agency is just not working as the union intended, and the market value of restricted free agents is being suppressed. So, asking him to go prove his value is kind of contentious when you know he's unlikely to be pursued anywhere near as aggressively as-if he was a UFA.

So, one way or another I'm just hoping for a smooth, quick, and happy resolution for all sides in July.

[jbk1234]

He has every right to try to get more and/or get in to a position to earn more; but once the market has spoken - and it's time to choose, that's when you hope he actually does choose rather than go in to hold outs and other garbage.

And I do think trading for LeVert was a way to eliminate whatever leverage Collin may have been able to hold over our heads.

He has that right, but it also reveals what his priorities are, and his priorities should inform the Cavs in terms of their decision. Players can do what's best for themselves regardless of the team, what's best for the team, or they can try to balance the two while recognizing that team success and individual success are usually dependent upon one another. While I don't expect a roster full of team-first guys, it does make it easier to build a team when most of the players fall into that third category.

One of the reasons I'm entirely comfortable with Sexton walking for nothing is that I've seen very little evidence over his rookie contract that he cares more about the team's success than his individual success, and if money is going to be the lever to get him to respond in that regard, things could go very badly once he's already been paid.

Oh, I think Collin cares, and for now this is all just negotiations. The moment it actually harms the team, then we'll have cause to question his priorities. But restricted free-agency is just not working as the union intended, and the market value of restricted free agents is being suppressed. So, asking him to go prove his value is kind of contentious when you know he's unlikely to be pursued anywhere near as aggressively as-if he was a UFA.

So, one way or another I'm just hoping for a smooth, quick, and happy resolution for all sides in July.

I'm not nearly as certain that the RFA market is being as suppressed as you. Most teams extend the players they want to extend and most agents are reasonable enough to accept that the team is accepting the risk of injury, or a down year, a year early so people are reasonable.

But agents and players miss on perceived value all the time, even as UFAs. Ask Dennis Schroder and Drummond. Hart and Lauri were the only two RFAs last year. Maybe Hart makes a couple million more, but then he's probably not getting a P.O. in his third year. He'll be a UFA next summer. Is a player as limited as he is offensively getting more than $15M?

I'm convinced that the Cavs paid top dollar for Lauri last summer. No one was worried about the Bulls matching a number north of $15M, they just didn't want to pay Lauri that much and the cap space was gone.

Is the market going to suppress Ayton's value this summer? How about Simons? If the Cavs were to withdraw the Q.O., as the Hornets did with Monk, does Sexton's market value go up or down?

[toooskies]

He has that right, but it also reveals what his priorities are, and his priorities should inform the Cavs in terms of their decision. Players can do what's best for themselves regardless of the team, what's best for the team, or they can try to balance the two while recognizing that team success and individual success are usually dependent upon one another. While I don't expect a roster full of team-first guys, it does make it easier to build a team when most of the players fall into that third category.

One of the reasons I'm entirely comfortable with Sexton walking for nothing is that I've seen very little evidence over his rookie contract that he cares more about the team's success than his individual success, and if money is going to be the lever to get him to respond in that regard, things could go very badly once he's already been paid.

Oh, I think Collin cares, and for now this is all just negotiations. The moment it actually harms the team, then we'll have cause to question his priorities. But restricted free-agency is just not working as the union intended, and the market value of restricted free agents is being suppressed. So, asking him to go prove his value is kind of contentious when you know he's unlikely to be pursued anywhere near as aggressively as-if he was a UFA.

So, one way or another I'm just hoping for a smooth, quick, and happy resolution for all sides in July.

I'm not nearly as certain that the RFA market is being as suppressed as you. Most teams extend the players they want to extend and most agents are reasonable enough to accept that the team is accepting the risk of injury, or a down year, a year early so people are reasonable.

But agents and players miss on perceived value all the time, even as UFAs. Ask Dennis Schroder and Drummond. Hart and Lauri were the only two RFAs last year. Maybe Hart makes a couple million more, but then he's probably not getting a P.O. in his third year. He'll be a UFA next summer. Is a player as limited as he is offensively getting more than $15M?

I'm convinced that the Cavs paid top dollar for Lauri last summer. No one was worried about the Bulls matching a number north of $15M, they just didn't want to pay Lauri that much and the cap space was gone.

Is the market going to suppress Ayton's value this summer? How about Simons? If the Cavs were to withdraw the Q.O., as the Hornets did with Monk, does Sexton's market value go up or down?

Most of the market limitations are restricted by the compexities of cap space. If teams were allowed to spend what they wanted to spend and just let the league tweak the tax penalties to enforce (some) competitive balance, then everything's fine.

[jbk1234]

Oh, I think Collin cares, and for now this is all just negotiations. The moment it actually harms the team, then we'll have cause to question his priorities. But restricted free-agency is just not working as the union intended, and the market value of restricted free agents is being suppressed. So, asking him to go prove his value is kind of contentious when you know he's unlikely to be pursued anywhere near as aggressively as-if he was a UFA.

So, one way or another I'm just hoping for a smooth, quick, and happy resolution for all sides in July.

I'm not nearly as certain that the RFA market is being as suppressed as you. Most teams extend the players they want to extend and most agents are reasonable enough to accept that the team is accepting the risk of injury, or a down year, a year early so people are reasonable.

But agents and players miss on perceived value all the time, even as UFAs. Ask Dennis Schroder and Drummond. Hart and Lauri were the only two RFAs last year. Maybe Hart makes a couple million more, but then he's probably not getting a P.O. in his third year. He'll be a UFA next summer. Is a player as limited as he is offensively getting more than $15M?

I'm convinced that the Cavs paid top dollar for Lauri last summer. No one was worried about the Bulls matching a number north of $15M, they just didn't want to pay Lauri that much and the cap space was gone.

Is the market going to suppress Ayton's value this summer? How about Simons? If the Cavs were to withdraw the Q.O., as the Hornets did with Monk, does Sexton's market value go up or down?

Most of the market limitations are restricted by the compexities of cap space. If teams were allowed to spend what they wanted to spend and just let the league tweak the tax penalties to enforce (some) competitive balance, then everything's fine.

I agree with you that, by design, the cap and tax lines are the biggest limitations on a player's market, the cap exists precisely because owners of midmarket teams don't want to be subsidized in order serve as glorified farm teams for the larger markets, like say MLB. If you spend a billion dollars for a franchise, not only do you want to make money, you actually want your team to be good.

[JonFromVA]

He has that right, but it also reveals what his priorities are, and his priorities should inform the Cavs in terms of their decision. Players can do what's best for themselves regardless of the team, what's best for the team, or they can try to balance the two while recognizing that team success and individual success are usually dependent upon one another. While I don't expect a roster full of team-first guys, it does make it easier to build a team when most of the players fall into that third category.

One of the reasons I'm entirely comfortable with Sexton walking for nothing is that I've seen very little evidence over his rookie contract that he cares more about the team's success than his individual success, and if money is going to be the lever to get him to respond in that regard, things could go very badly once he's already been paid.

Oh, I think Collin cares, and for now this is all just negotiations. The moment it actually harms the team, then we'll have cause to question his priorities. But restricted free-agency is just not working as the union intended, and the market value of restricted free agents is being suppressed. So, asking him to go prove his value is kind of contentious when you know he's unlikely to be pursued anywhere near as aggressively as-if he was a UFA.

So, one way or another I'm just hoping for a smooth, quick, and happy resolution for all sides in July.

I'm not nearly as certain that the RFA market is being as suppressed as you. Most teams extend the players they want to extend and most agents are reasonable enough to accept that the team is accepting the risk of injury, or a down year, a year early so people are reasonable.

But agents and players miss on perceived value all the time, even as UFAs. Ask Dennis Schroder and Drummond. Hart and Lauri were the only two RFAs last year. Maybe Hart makes a couple million more, but then he's probably not getting a P.O. in his third year. He'll be a UFA next summer. Is a player as limited as he is offensively getting more than $15M?

I'm convinced that the Cavs paid top dollar for Lauri last summer. No one was worried about the Bulls matching a number north of $15M, they just didn't want to pay Lauri that much and the cap space was gone.

Is the market going to suppress Ayton's value this summer? How about Simons? If the Cavs were to withdraw the Q.O., as the Hornets did with Monk, does Sexton's market value go up or down?

Auctions only get fun when the bidding gets rolling, and that's turned out to be the hard part for RFA's.

I mean, if you follow eBay whatsoever, you know the person who puts up a no minimum bid auction with free or at least reasonable shipping isn't (necessarily) being foolish.

Anyway, if Collin was a UFA, teams could have planned to have cap space to bid on him or even outright colluded with him, and in his case giving up some short term money to get a shot to prove himself on a team as their starting PG may very well be pay off in the long run - or at least that's how I'd expect him to see it.

So, there are nuances ...

[jbk1234]

Oh, I think Collin cares, and for now this is all just negotiations. The moment it actually harms the team, then we'll have cause to question his priorities. But restricted free-agency is just not working as the union intended, and the market value of restricted free agents is being suppressed. So, asking him to go prove his value is kind of contentious when you know he's unlikely to be pursued anywhere near as aggressively as-if he was a UFA.

So, one way or another I'm just hoping for a smooth, quick, and happy resolution for all sides in July.

I'm not nearly as certain that the RFA market is being as suppressed as you. Most teams extend the players they want to extend and most agents are reasonable enough to accept that the team is accepting the risk of injury, or a down year, a year early so people are reasonable.

But agents and players miss on perceived value all the time, even as UFAs. Ask Dennis Schroder and Drummond. Hart and Lauri were the only two RFAs last year. Maybe Hart makes a couple million more, but then he's probably not getting a P.O. in his third year. He'll be a UFA next summer. Is a player as limited as he is offensively getting more than $15M?

I'm convinced that the Cavs paid top dollar for Lauri last summer. No one was worried about the Bulls matching a number north of $15M, they just didn't want to pay Lauri that much and the cap space was gone.

Is the market going to suppress Ayton's value this summer? How about Simons? If the Cavs were to withdraw the Q.O., as the Hornets did with Monk, does Sexton's market value go up or down?

Auctions only get fun when the bidding gets rolling, and that's turned out to be the hard part for RFA's.

I mean, if you follow eBay whatsoever, you know the person who puts up a no minimum bid auction with free or at least reasonable shipping isn't (necessarily) being foolish.

Anyway, if Collin was a UFA, teams could have planned to have cap space to bid on him or even outright colluded with him, and in his case giving up some short term money to get a shot to prove himself on a team as their starting PG may very well be pay off in the long run - or at least that's how I'd expect him to see it.

So, there are nuances ...

There are nuances, but one of those nuances is that players only become RFAs under certain conditions: A team thinks a player is worth less than what the market will bear, the player thinks he's worth more than the market will bear, or there's a delta between what the player is worth to the team who owns his rights and the teams with cap (and even in that scenario, the player is usually extended and traded).

Teams generally don't like other teams writing contracts for their players that they then have to match, or not. Player options, the number of years committed, partial guarantees in the final years, escalating/declining structures, etc. There are incentives for the teams not to let it get this far, and increasingly, teams aren't.

But far and away, the negotiating advantages favor the players in the NBA. Over the cap teams, which increasingly is almost all of them, can't replace players who walk so they get overpaid rather than running the risk. If it's a contender with a smallish window, it's particularly egregious and then agents try to use those contracts as fair comps.

There aren't 30 true max players in the NBA, and max players team up, so you have guys who skill level should be a tier below max, getting max deals. You have older players insisting on absurd extensions or super max contracts that they have zero hope of actually being worth at the end.

There's rarely any correlation between a player's availability due to health issues and guaranteed dollars. All of the mitigation mechanisms stretch/wave or buyout, contemplate a player getting all or the vast majority of his money. Players take above-market contracts from bad teams without ever intending on finishing them with that team, and often give corresponding effort.

Players routinely request/demand a trade halfway through their contracts despite having the option of negotiating for shorter ones. Conversely, if a player is on a bad contract, teams are saddled with that player or have to attach value to move him.

Long story short, the power dynamic is such that teams only have it before they obligate themselves to pay a whole bunch of money to a player over a multi-year period. Given how the league has evolved, they should behave accordingly.

[Revenged25]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=GeneKnowsHoops
Just putting this out there. Sounds like someone else right? Also happened to another guy that's looked favorable upon now for that team in Chicago.

[jbk1234]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=GeneKnowsHoops
Just putting this out there. Sounds like someone else right? Also happened to another guy that's looked favorable upon now for that team in Chicago.

I don't think these are good comps for Sexton. They both shoot, and score, way more from outside and help their teams by spacing their floor as a result. This difference was, and is, going to be even further pronounced as a result of the drawing-contact rule change. I find the latter to be a far more serious issue in that it's negatively impacted players far better than Sexton, in demonstrable ways. Also, even though they're all they're all bad defenders, both Booker and LaVine are considerably taller and that shows up in other ways, e.g., being more difficult to shoot over when they actually do contest jumpers, getting your shot off over a shorter defender, etc.

But the flawed comp issue aside, head on over to the Suns forum and see how Suns fans feel about possibility of handing Booker a super max after the series he just had against Dallas. Same with the Bulls handing LaVine a veteran max after just having his knee scoped. More than one or two fans are rooting for a sign and trade over there. Those guys probably aren't No. 1 options on a contending team, so even when they *work out,* the present good, but not great ceiling issues.

[mg]

My gut feeling is Detroit is going to miss out on Ivey and turn their attention to Sexton in FA.
Cory Joseph was probably their best guard outside Cade last season. Sexton would certainly be a huge upgrade over him.
Brunson probably gets overpaid to stay in Dallas.

[Revenged25]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=GeneKnowsHoops
Just putting this out there. Sounds like someone else right? Also happened to another guy that's looked favorable upon now for that team in Chicago.

I don't think these are good comps for Sexton. They both shoot, and score, way more from outside and help their teams by spacing their floor as a result. This difference was, and is, going to be even further pronounced as a result of the drawing-contact rule change. I find the latter to be a far more serious issue in that it's negatively impacted players far better than Sexton, in demonstrable ways. Also, even though they're all they're all bad defenders, both Booker and LaVine are considerably taller and that shows up in other ways, e.g., being more difficult to shoot over when they actually do contest jumpers, getting your shot off over a shorter defender, etc.

But the flawed comp issue aside, head on over to the Suns forum and see how Suns fans feel about possibility of handing Booker a super max after the series he just had against Dallas. Same with the Bulls handing LaVine a veteran max after just having his knee scoped. More than one or two fans are rooting for a sign and trade over there. Those guys probably aren't No. 1 options on a contending team, so even when they *work out,* the present good, but not great ceiling issues.

Not saying that Sexton, Booker, Lavine etc should get a max or a supermax etc, just that the idea of people using that Sexton is an empty stat player etc is flawed because that happens to all players that put up stats on a good team regardless of if they are efficient or not. Regardless of where point are scored, outside of Lavine's last 2 seasons, Sexton's been just as efficient as Lavine/Booker, especially during the first 3 full years. Sexton still isn't finished developing yet either. I mean for all your "Lavine and Booker space more by taking more 3s" both barely only take more than 1.5 more attempts than Sexton for their careers and even then needed to take some time to really start shooting the 3 more, mostly in their 4th season. Sexton's 4th season was cut short while he was still struggling.

Getting an efficient 20+ppg scorer is really hard in the NBA regardless of position. If Sexton was literally just an inefficient volume scorer I wouldn't be as high on him and think he's really just a 6th man, but he's been efficient and consistently improving. I think keeping him for around 20 mil is a great deal for the Cavs and one that can pay off really well and at worst he'd have the same trade value as LeVert as the deal continues on.

[JonFromVA]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=GeneKnowsHoops
Just putting this out there. Sounds like someone else right? Also happened to another guy that's looked favorable upon now for that team in Chicago.

I don't think these are good comps for Sexton. They both shoot, and score, way more from outside and help their teams by spacing their floor as a result. This difference was, and is, going to be even further pronounced as a result of the drawing-contact rule change. I find the latter to be a far more serious issue in that it's negatively impacted players far better than Sexton, in demonstrable ways. Also, even though they're all they're all bad defenders, both Booker and LaVine are considerably taller and that shows up in other ways, e.g., being more difficult to shoot over when they actually do contest jumpers, getting your shot off over a shorter defender, etc.

But the flawed comp issue aside, head on over to the Suns forum and see how Suns fans feel about possibility of handing Booker a super max after the series he just had against Dallas. Same with the Bulls handing LaVine a veteran max after just having his knee scoped. More than one or two fans are rooting for a sign and trade over there. Those guys probably aren't No. 1 options on a contending team, so even when they *work out,* the present good, but not great ceiling issues.

Not saying that Sexton, Booker, Lavine etc should get a max or a supermax etc, just that the idea of people using that Sexton is an empty stat player etc is flawed because that happens to all players that put up stats on a good team regardless of if they are efficient or not. Regardless of where point are scored, outside of Lavine's last 2 seasons, Sexton's been just as efficient as Lavine/Booker, especially during the first 3 full years. Sexton still isn't finished developing yet either. I mean for all your "Lavine and Booker space more by taking more 3s" both barely only take more than 1.5 more attempts than Sexton for their careers and even then needed to take some time to really start shooting the 3 more, mostly in their 4th season. Sexton's 4th season was cut short while he was still struggling.

Getting an efficient 20+ppg scorer is really hard in the NBA regardless of position. If Sexton was literally just an inefficient volume scorer I wouldn't be as high on him and think he's really just a 6th man, but he's been efficient and consistently improving. I think keeping him for around 20 mil is a great deal for the Cavs and one that can pay off really well and at worst he'd have the same trade value as LeVert as the deal continues on.

Phoenix didn't have a PG and asked Booker to run the team. If they dumped CP3 and asked Booker to try playing point again, those "empty stats" results may repeat.

Similarly situation with LaVine ... the Bull's improvement this season was mostly centered on their additions of Ball and Caruso, and as they struggled with injuries - LaVine's +/- eventually fell back from positive to slightly negative.

Any team looking at Sexton needs to be thinking of whether they have the right pieces in place to turn him in to a positive player.

The Cavs certainly have some of them, we have the big front-line, we have the play-making but we lack a big PG so Collin has to improve on D and do a capable job defending taller players or it simply won't work very well here.

[jbk1234]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=GeneKnowsHoops
Just putting this out there. Sounds like someone else right? Also happened to another guy that's looked favorable upon now for that team in Chicago.

I don't think these are good comps for Sexton. They both shoot, and score, way more from outside and help their teams by spacing their floor as a result. This difference was, and is, going to be even further pronounced as a result of the drawing-contact rule change. I find the latter to be a far more serious issue in that it's negatively impacted players far better than Sexton, in demonstrable ways. Also, even though they're all they're all bad defenders, both Booker and LaVine are considerably taller and that shows up in other ways, e.g., being more difficult to shoot over when they actually do contest jumpers, getting your shot off over a shorter defender, etc.

But the flawed comp issue aside, head on over to the Suns forum and see how Suns fans feel about possibility of handing Booker a super max after the series he just had against Dallas. Same with the Bulls handing LaVine a veteran max after just having his knee scoped. More than one or two fans are rooting for a sign and trade over there. Those guys probably aren't No. 1 options on a contending team, so even when they *work out,* the present good, but not great ceiling issues.

Not saying that Sexton, Booker, Lavine etc should get a max or a supermax etc, just that the idea of people using that Sexton is an empty stat player etc is flawed because that happens to all players that put up stats on a good team regardless of if they are efficient or not. Regardless of where point are scored, outside of Lavine's last 2 seasons, Sexton's been just as efficient as Lavine/Booker, especially during the first 3 full years. Sexton still isn't finished developing yet either. I mean for all your "Lavine and Booker space more by taking more 3s" both barely only take more than 1.5 more attempts than Sexton for their careers and even then needed to take some time to really start shooting the 3 more, mostly in their 4th season. Sexton's 4th season was cut short while he was still struggling.

Getting an efficient 20+ppg scorer is really hard in the NBA regardless of position. If Sexton was literally just an inefficient volume scorer I wouldn't be as high on him and think he's really just a 6th man, but he's been efficient and consistently improving. I think keeping him for around 20 mil is a great deal for the Cavs and one that can pay off really well and at worst he'd have the same trade value as LeVert as the deal continues on.

LaVine has averaged 7.5 attempts his last three years. Booker has averaged over 7. About 40% of their shots come from range. Multiple coaching staffs have asked Sexton to shoot more from outside.

You're far more confident that Sexton can maintain his efficiency after the rule change, and after his FGAs are reduced, than I.

LeVert was traded with 1.5 years left on his current deal which represents prime value to a playoff team as you can get two postseason runs out of the player while only being on the hook for a single season of salary. That flexibility is part of the trade value. Also, we overpaid for LeVert. I'm not convinced that Sexton at LeVert's trade value last deadline is worst case scenario at all.

People suffer from a lack of imagination in terms of the number of ways it go bad for the Cavs if they pay Sexton more than his current market.

[jbk1234]

Pacers: https://8points9seconds.com/2022/06/02/indiana-pacers-collin-sexton-interest-2/

Spurs: https://airalamo.com/posts/san-antonio-spurs-rumors-collin-sexton-interest

Pistons: https://pistonpowered.com/2022/04/21/pros-cons-collin-sexton-detroit-pistons/

[mg]

Pacers: https://8points9seconds.com/2022/06/02/indiana-pacers-collin-sexton-interest-2/

Spurs: https://airalamo.com/posts/san-antonio-spurs-rumors-collin-sexton-interest

Pistons: https://pistonpowered.com/2022/04/21/pros-cons-collin-sexton-detroit-pistons/

These are all fan opinions. Noone knows what these FO's are truly going to do. Maybe the draft clears things up a little bit. Cav fans mostly hate Sexton so I expect opposing fans feel the same and don't want to overpay. That Detroit dude was comparing Sexton to Frank Jackson.

[jbk1234]

Pacers: https://8points9seconds.com/2022/06/02/indiana-pacers-collin-sexton-interest-2/

Spurs: https://airalamo.com/posts/san-antonio-spurs-rumors-collin-sexton-interest

Pistons: https://pistonpowered.com/2022/04/21/pros-cons-collin-sexton-detroit-pistons/

These are all fan opinions. Noone knows what these FO's are truly going to do. Maybe the draft clears things up a little bit. Cav fans mostly hate Sexton so I expect opposing fans feel the same and don't want to overpay. That Detroit dude was comparing Sexton to Frank Jackson.

Most Cavs fans, myself included, don't hate Collin Sexton. I'd be very happy to have him as a sixth man. I hate the idea of him as a starter on this roster, and think the time for the Cavs building the type of roster around Sexton as a main guy has passed. I absolutely hate the idea of breaking up Allen, Mobley, and Garland in order to try to thread that needle, and there are Cavs fans who would do so.

You need a Ball, Simmons, or Cade type on the roster to start him on a team that's going to be any good at all. There are going to be times where you're going to need to take the ball out of his hands in order to be able to run an offense and make sure other players get to eat. You're going to need to be able to hide him on defense, so whoever runs the offense in those circumstances, needs to have size. Even in that scenario, you need big men who can space the floor for him.

Assuming you set all of that up around him, he still has areas of his game that he has to work on. It is unfortunate for both Collin and the Cavs that he got injured last season because a lot of things the organization was hoping to see, that he didn't show in his first three years, he didn't have a chance to show them last year either.

He's a gamble. There are reasons to be hopeful and real reasons to be skeptical as well. I very much want the Cavs to hedge here.

[toooskies]

I don't think these are good comps for Sexton. They both shoot, and score, way more from outside and help their teams by spacing their floor as a result. This difference was, and is, going to be even further pronounced as a result of the drawing-contact rule change. I find the latter to be a far more serious issue in that it's negatively impacted players far better than Sexton, in demonstrable ways. Also, even though they're all they're all bad defenders, both Booker and LaVine are considerably taller and that shows up in other ways, e.g., being more difficult to shoot over when they actually do contest jumpers, getting your shot off over a shorter defender, etc.

But the flawed comp issue aside, head on over to the Suns forum and see how Suns fans feel about possibility of handing Booker a super max after the series he just had against Dallas. Same with the Bulls handing LaVine a veteran max after just having his knee scoped. More than one or two fans are rooting for a sign and trade over there. Those guys probably aren't No. 1 options on a contending team, so even when they *work out,* the present good, but not great ceiling issues.

Not saying that Sexton, Booker, Lavine etc should get a max or a supermax etc, just that the idea of people using that Sexton is an empty stat player etc is flawed because that happens to all players that put up stats on a good team regardless of if they are efficient or not. Regardless of where point are scored, outside of Lavine's last 2 seasons, Sexton's been just as efficient as Lavine/Booker, especially during the first 3 full years. Sexton still isn't finished developing yet either. I mean for all your "Lavine and Booker space more by taking more 3s" both barely only take more than 1.5 more attempts than Sexton for their careers and even then needed to take some time to really start shooting the 3 more, mostly in their 4th season. Sexton's 4th season was cut short while he was still struggling.

Getting an efficient 20+ppg scorer is really hard in the NBA regardless of position. If Sexton was literally just an inefficient volume scorer I wouldn't be as high on him and think he's really just a 6th man, but he's been efficient and consistently improving. I think keeping him for around 20 mil is a great deal for the Cavs and one that can pay off really well and at worst he'd have the same trade value as LeVert as the deal continues on.

LaVine has averaged 7.5 attempts his last three years. Booker has averaged over 7. About 40% of their shots come from range. Multiple coaching staffs have asked Sexton to shoot more from outside.

You're far more confident that Sexton can maintain his efficiency after the rule change, and after his FGAs are reduced, than I.

LeVert was traded with 1.5 years left on his current deal which represents prime value to a playoff team as you can get two postseason runs out of the player while only being on the hook for a single season of salary. That flexibility is part of the trade value. Also, we overpaid for LeVert. I'm not convinced that Sexton at LeVert's trade value last deadline is worst case scenario at all.

People suffer from a lack of imagination in terms of the number of ways it go bad for the Cavs if they pay Sexton more than his current market.

Sexton's shooting efficiency inside the 3-point line last year was actually up from the years before. His free throw attempts were slightly down and his turnovers up, hinting at the points of emphasis affecting him.

But by all accounts the NBA points of emphasis about contact were entirely phased out by the end of the season. We have no reason to believe they will be re-emphasized next season. The rules never actually changed and the refs got tired of the high-profile complaining. It's not just anecdotal-- Trae Young's FTAs were down year-over-year this year but had the same number of attempts in his last 20 games as he did in all games last year, going from 5.5 in his first 20 games to 8.3 in his last 20. Harden started slow, then maintained a high FTA rate afterwards despite his usage going down post-trade. Lillard and Beal both recovered their FTA rates after particularly slow starts from the line due to the points of emphasis, despite missing the end of the season. Garland made it to the line significantly more towards the end of the season than in October and November.

But nearly all of Sexton's drop in TS% was due to a 3-point shooting slump, mostly off of catch-and-shoot situations. All indications are it was just a shooting slump, possibly affected by his preseason shoulder injury.

But despite being in a long-distance shooting slump, he took more 3s per shot, per 36 minutes, and per 100 possessions than ever last year. Progress in the right direction, if you think he needs to stretch the floor more.

[jbk1234]

Not saying that Sexton, Booker, Lavine etc should get a max or a supermax etc, just that the idea of people using that Sexton is an empty stat player etc is flawed because that happens to all players that put up stats on a good team regardless of if they are efficient or not. Regardless of where point are scored, outside of Lavine's last 2 seasons, Sexton's been just as efficient as Lavine/Booker, especially during the first 3 full years. Sexton still isn't finished developing yet either. I mean for all your "Lavine and Booker space more by taking more 3s" both barely only take more than 1.5 more attempts than Sexton for their careers and even then needed to take some time to really start shooting the 3 more, mostly in their 4th season. Sexton's 4th season was cut short while he was still struggling.

Getting an efficient 20+ppg scorer is really hard in the NBA regardless of position. If Sexton was literally just an inefficient volume scorer I wouldn't be as high on him and think he's really just a 6th man, but he's been efficient and consistently improving. I think keeping him for around 20 mil is a great deal for the Cavs and one that can pay off really well and at worst he'd have the same trade value as LeVert as the deal continues on.

LaVine has averaged 7.5 attempts his last three years. Booker has averaged over 7. About 40% of their shots come from range. Multiple coaching staffs have asked Sexton to shoot more from outside.

You're far more confident that Sexton can maintain his efficiency after the rule change, and after his FGAs are reduced, than I.

LeVert was traded with 1.5 years left on his current deal which represents prime value to a playoff team as you can get two postseason runs out of the player while only being on the hook for a single season of salary. That flexibility is part of the trade value. Also, we overpaid for LeVert. I'm not convinced that Sexton at LeVert's trade value last deadline is worst case scenario at all.

People suffer from a lack of imagination in terms of the number of ways it go bad for the Cavs if they pay Sexton more than his current market.

Sexton's shooting efficiency inside the 3-point line last year was actually up from the years before. His free throw attempts were slightly down and his turnovers up, hinting at the points of emphasis affecting him.

But by all accounts the NBA points of emphasis about contact were entirely phased out by the end of the season. We have no reason to believe they will be re-emphasized next season. The rules never actually changed and the refs got tired of the high-profile complaining. It's not just anecdotal-- Trae Young's FTAs were down year-over-year this year but had the same number of attempts in his last 20 games as he did in all games last year, going from 5.5 in his first 20 games to 8.3 in his last 20. Harden started slow, then maintained a high FTA rate afterwards despite his usage going down post-trade. Lillard and Beal both recovered their FTA rates after particularly slow starts from the line due to the points of emphasis, despite missing the end of the season. Garland made it to the line significantly more towards the end of the season than in October and November.

But nearly all of Sexton's drop in TS% was due to a 3-point shooting slump, mostly off of catch-and-shoot situations. All indications are it was just a shooting slump, possibly affected by his preseason shoulder injury.

But despite being in a long-distance shooting slump, he took more 3s per shot, per 36 minutes, and per 100 possessions than ever last year. Progress in the right direction, if you think he needs to stretch the floor more.

You are simply more willing to dismiss legitimate causes for concern about Sexton than I am. I'm not motivated to engage in mental gymnastics to get best case scenario on every one of these issues. I'm not going to hand waive away his advanced numbers, or his defensive limitations, or his fit with our best players, or the fact he never really attempted to work on flaws, that hurt overall teams performance, until he was well down the road on his rookie deal and the extension he was imagining appeared in jeopardy. I find the idea that there are fans who would trade away our best players to make the roster work better for Sexton to be wildly misguided.

Absent injury, the Cavs should not plan on starting him next to Garland again. If he's not okay with that, he should move on and the Cavs should let him. If he is okay with that, but he still wants to be compensated in the starting range, there's a basis for a conversation.

[JonFromVA]

Pacers: https://8points9seconds.com/2022/06/02/indiana-pacers-collin-sexton-interest-2/

Spurs: https://airalamo.com/posts/san-antonio-spurs-rumors-collin-sexton-interest

Pistons: https://pistonpowered.com/2022/04/21/pros-cons-collin-sexton-detroit-pistons/

These are all fan opinions. Noone knows what these FO's are truly going to do. Maybe the draft clears things up a little bit. Cav fans mostly hate Sexton so I expect opposing fans feel the same and don't want to overpay. That Detroit dude was comparing Sexton to Frank Jackson.

We don't know what they will do, but we do know what they reportedly did last Summer before Collin hurt his knee ... made joke offers and were fearful of committing big bucks to him without seeing how he fit first.