Stillwater's monster draft thread (consolidated)

[JonFromVA]

I honestly think this guy was brought in on the hopes of drafting Zion... then surrounding him with shooters.

Then it makes perfect sense and not entirely out of the question, but why hire him days before the lottery drawing not knowing where you will pick. they could have based the hire on what the game plan was if they don't get Zion.

IDK but right now I have no idea what they are planning, other than knowing we have a nice core but some of them don't fit this mans typical schemes at all. So I am lead to think they irrationally beleive Osman will be a 40% 3 point shooter after a full offseason, and Zizic will be a knock down shooter by 2020. Or they are not in the plans at all. Worse case is they think Beilein can adapt his philospohy to fit what he has to work with instead of trying to mold players he's recruited to fit his system.

I will give it a 1/2 season before I start lobbying for a change if they keep the same roster or he doesn't make good by improvisation.

half season? Such patience! lol..

I think Dan doesn't want to be held hostage to our lottery luck. I suspect he valued finding a coach who wanted to join the team even though we only had a 14% shot of getting the #1 pick.

A coach who even if we get Zion won't be afraid to tell him: "Hey kid, nice dunk, but it's only 2 points ... if you want to win, get back on D!"

Certainly we can all hope that Cedi develops as a player and a shooter and putting the right people around him to help him is important; but a successful plan doesn't rely on everything working out just so. Even if we don't think Cedi should be in our long-term plans, increasing his value in the short-term will improve our team when we shop him around the league.

It's just the start of a rebuild. Nobody knows how long it's actually going to take; but the most important thing is bringing in people who can teach and improve talent and can identify talent.

Beilein has the potential to help the Cavs out in both those areas, as well as the big picture stuff like establishing a culture and building a sustaining organization.

Obviously there are no guarantees, and maybe Beilein will hate every minute of coaching at the pro levels and struggle to cope, but 6 months would still be extremely quick to pull the plug. Even Blatt got a year and a half.

Didn't watch much Duke this season? He was one of the best of the best on defense in the country man, no coach will have to tell him much of anything.
As far as Osman, in Beilein's system ( assuming it was why he was hired) Cedi will have to take and make 3's or be the defacto main ball handler in the 2nd unit. If he is taking the shots but continues to struggle his stock will only plummet.
If it's really just the start of a rebuild I assume then this HC is just a face on the sideline with the knowledge to give the ownership group a rock solid assessment based on Cavs film study from last season of what he thinks they need going forward such as who they should target in the draft via trades etc. But whomever is brought in as the Assistant will be the player development guru.
I agree he can help establish a culture, but he was the coach of a name I care not to utter... other than followed by curses

Beilein doesn't have a my way or the highway reputation, he has a reputation of getting the most of what he has ... but we'll just have to see how that translates. If it helps ... think of him as the former West Virginia coach. lol

[Stillwater]

So maybe this is overkill with the slow traffic on here right now, but I am curious how important people think getting a top 3 pick is, because to me it means far less risk with one of Zion Ja or RJ at the top of the board.
The odds are better to land outside the top 3 but it's only by 2%.
I think it's crucial they get Zion really if they really do intend to try to right the ship after 1 season.
But getting Morant or Barrett makes the retool still possible without a full tank next season as opposed to a longer rebuild
where they are looking at solid ceiling but longer term development prospects in that 4-6 range like
Bol,Hayes,K.Porter,Doumbouya,and to some degree a couple sleepers in that range; Bitdatz and Garland.
Of course they could play the safe card 4-6 and target prospects like Hunter,Culver,White or even reach on somebody like Grant WIlliams.
The one thing that concerns me is if at 6 they are overconfident in their ability to develop somebody with questionable work ethic or raw because of elite physical tools and upside that will need everything to work out well like Nas Little or Cam Reddish or even Okpala.
The one player I think they could be targeting at 5-6 that nobody would expect that high is Jaylen Nowell who could be this years Donovan Mitchell and I would be down with that no problem even though they could probably trade down and still get him with most teams clueless about this kids potential.

anyway where do you think they pick ?
I voted 2

[Stillwater]

half season? Such patience! lol..

I think Dan doesn't want to be held hostage to our lottery luck. I suspect he valued finding a coach who wanted to join the team even though we only had a 14% shot of getting the #1 pick.

A coach who even if we get Zion won't be afraid to tell him: "Hey kid, nice dunk, but it's only 2 points ... if you want to win, get back on D!"

Certainly we can all hope that Cedi develops as a player and a shooter and putting the right people around him to help him is important; but a successful plan doesn't rely on everything working out just so. Even if we don't think Cedi should be in our long-term plans, increasing his value in the short-term will improve our team when we shop him around the league.

It's just the start of a rebuild. Nobody knows how long it's actually going to take; but the most important thing is bringing in people who can teach and improve talent and can identify talent.

Beilein has the potential to help the Cavs out in both those areas, as well as the big picture stuff like establishing a culture and building a sustaining organization.

Obviously there are no guarantees, and maybe Beilein will hate every minute of coaching at the pro levels and struggle to cope, but 6 months would still be extremely quick to pull the plug. Even Blatt got a year and a half.

Didn't watch much Duke this season? He was one of the best of the best on defense in the country man, no coach will have to tell him much of anything.
As far as Osman, in Beilein's system ( assuming it was why he was hired) Cedi will have to take and make 3's or be the defacto main ball handler in the 2nd unit. If he is taking the shots but continues to struggle his stock will only plummet.
If it's really just the start of a rebuild I assume then this HC is just a face on the sideline with the knowledge to give the ownership group a rock solid assessment based on Cavs film study from last season of what he thinks they need going forward such as who they should target in the draft via trades etc. But whomever is brought in as the Assistant will be the player development guru.
I agree he can help establish a culture, but he was the coach of a name I care not to utter... other than followed by curses

Beilein doesn't have a my way or the highway reputation, he has a reputation of getting the most of what he has ... but we'll just have to see how that translates. If it helps ... think of him as the former West Virginia coach. lol

Yeah I know, I just wonder about the mentality of the front office here, and if they are pushing for a finished product to fast.
I would have waited until tomorrow to pull the trigger after I knew where I was picking

[JonFromVA]

Didn't watch much Duke this season? He was one of the best of the best on defense in the country man, no coach will have to tell him much of anything.
As far as Osman, in Beilein's system ( assuming it was why he was hired) Cedi will have to take and make 3's or be the defacto main ball handler in the 2nd unit. If he is taking the shots but continues to struggle his stock will only plummet.
If it's really just the start of a rebuild I assume then this HC is just a face on the sideline with the knowledge to give the ownership group a rock solid assessment based on Cavs film study from last season of what he thinks they need going forward such as who they should target in the draft via trades etc. But whomever is brought in as the Assistant will be the player development guru.
I agree he can help establish a culture, but he was the coach of a name I care not to utter... other than followed by curses

Beilein doesn't have a my way or the highway reputation, he has a reputation of getting the most of what he has ... but we'll just have to see how that translates. If it helps ... think of him as the former West Virginia coach. lol

Yeah I know, I just wonder about the mentality of the front office here, and if they are pushing for a finished product to fast.
I would have waited until tomorrow to pull the trigger after I knew where I was picking

What are you thinking would change based on our lottery luck? And don't you think the optics are better that our coach joined the team before hand? This way his ties are clearly to the organization, and not a specific player.

[Stillwater]

Beilein doesn't have a my way or the highway reputation, he has a reputation of getting the most of what he has ... but we'll just have to see how that translates. If it helps ... think of him as the former West Virginia coach. lol

Yeah I know, I just wonder about the mentality of the front office here, and if they are pushing for a finished product to fast.
I would have waited until tomorrow to pull the trigger after I knew where I was picking

What are you thinking would change based on our lottery luck? And don't you think the optics are better that our coach joined the team before hand? This way his ties are clearly to the organization, and not a specific player.

All based on Zion or no Zion...Beilein makes a ton of sense if they expect to get Zion where he is in a Lebron role at the top of the key surrounded by shooters. Beilein is still a solid option without ZIon if they get Ja and use him in that role and maybe a little bit with Barrett in that role but after that there is nobody that is that guy and his system that stands out in this draft and whoever they take will be another one of the 4 not in that role . So his system will have to maximize constant ball movement which this team needs a lot of work on to master and is very difficult to get nba players to buy into esp high lottery rookies who are there based on their individual skills not sacrifice for team

[JonFromVA]

Yeah I know, I just wonder about the mentality of the front office here, and if they are pushing for a finished product to fast.
I would have waited until tomorrow to pull the trigger after I knew where I was picking

What are you thinking would change based on our lottery luck? And don't you think the optics are better that our coach joined the team before hand? This way his ties are clearly to the organization, and not a specific player.

All based on Zion or no Zion...Beilein makes a ton of sense if they expect to get Zion where he is in a Lebron role at the top of the key surrounded by shooters. Beilein is still a solid option without ZIon if they get Ja and use him in that role and maybe a little bit with Barrett in that role but after that there is nobody that is that guy and his system that stands out in this draft and whoever they take will be another one of the 4 not in that role . So his system will have to maximize constant ball movement which this team needs a lot of work on to master and is very difficult to get nba players to buy into esp high lottery rookies who are there based on their individual skills not sacrifice for team

Ok, I don't really think any of that is significant let alone that we should build our offense/defense around a rookie, but let's say it is. Which coaching candidate do you think we should have picked based on a) getting Zion, b) Morant, c) RJ, d) other?

Meaning ... is there really a decision we can make or should make based on knowing who we're drafting? Such a great and obvious coaching fit that it outweighs everything else we liked about Beilein?

[Stillwater]

What are you thinking would change based on our lottery luck? And don't you think the optics are better that our coach joined the team before hand? This way his ties are clearly to the organization, and not a specific player.

All based on Zion or no Zion...Beilein makes a ton of sense if they expect to get Zion where he is in a Lebron role at the top of the key surrounded by shooters. Beilein is still a solid option without ZIon if they get Ja and use him in that role and maybe a little bit with Barrett in that role but after that there is nobody that is that guy and his system that stands out in this draft and whoever they take will be another one of the 4 not in that role . So his system will have to maximize constant ball movement which this team needs a lot of work on to master and is very difficult to get nba players to buy into esp high lottery rookies who are there based on their individual skills not sacrifice for team

Ok, I don't really think any of that is significant let alone that we should build our offense/defense around a rookie, but let's say it is. Which coaching candidate do you think we should have picked based on a) getting Zion, b) Morant, c) RJ, d) other?

Meaning ... is there really a decision we can make or should make based on knowing who we're drafting? Such a great and obvious coaching fit that it outweighs everything else we liked about Beilein?

Again I don't have a problem with the Hire , he's a decent college coach that could prove to be a decent nba coach...but I am not confident in the current roster fitting his style without key changes to the roster and so it opens the door for struggle within the org. if they fail to get the right fits, which also makes me angry because it could mean they will pick for fit outside of Zion in the 2-6 range instead of picking the best player and then making the adjustment. I mean along with Zion Ja Morant or RJ Barrett will be the best player on this roster as a rookie sans maybe KLove but Barrett is not a great fit in Beileins system and them taking Reddish at 3 would send me into cardiac arrest because he fits the profile of a Beilein type player on paper despite being incredibly useless in college.

[Dupp]

Let’s go nick bring Zion home

[JonFromVA]

All based on Zion or no Zion...Beilein makes a ton of sense if they expect to get Zion where he is in a Lebron role at the top of the key surrounded by shooters. Beilein is still a solid option without ZIon if they get Ja and use him in that role and maybe a little bit with Barrett in that role but after that there is nobody that is that guy and his system that stands out in this draft and whoever they take will be another one of the 4 not in that role . So his system will have to maximize constant ball movement which this team needs a lot of work on to master and is very difficult to get nba players to buy into esp high lottery rookies who are there based on their individual skills not sacrifice for team

Ok, I don't really think any of that is significant let alone that we should build our offense/defense around a rookie, but let's say it is. Which coaching candidate do you think we should have picked based on a) getting Zion, b) Morant, c) RJ, d) other?

Meaning ... is there really a decision we can make or should make based on knowing who we're drafting? Such a great and obvious coaching fit that it outweighs everything else we liked about Beilein?

Again I don't have a problem with the Hire , he's a decent college coach that could prove to be a decent nba coach...but I am not confident in the current roster fitting his style without key changes to the roster and so it opens the door for struggle within the org. if they fail to get the right fits, which also makes me angry because it could mean they will pick for fit outside of Zion in the 2-6 range instead of picking the best player and then making the adjustment. I mean along with Zion Ja Morant or RJ Barrett will be the best player on this roster as a rookie sans maybe KLove but Barrett is not a great fit in Beileins system and them taking Reddish at 3 would send me into cardiac arrest because he fits the profile of a Beilein type player on paper despite being incredibly useless in college.

Well, if they don't know what they're doing, they will fail. No doubt about that. I think this hire improves the chances we make intelligent choices, though. Beilein has a ton of the most practical experience dealing with young players. I have a lot more faith in him to know what will or will not work than I do in Altman or Gansey and I wouldn't expect any of the assistants we interviewed to even have input on personnel matters outside of perhaps the players they've worked with directly.

So, yeah, if based upon Beilein's input they decide to pass on RJ because they don't think he will ever shoot and/or create and is too much of a prima-donna; and draft DeAndre Hunter because they feel he's already good at those things and will improve under their teaching ... good! That's what we want even if his "upside" isn't as high as RJ's.

We want a front office smart enough to draft Damian Lillard rather than Dion Waiters. Since Dan won't just go out and hire someone with that sort of background (like the Brown's did with Dorsey), there's not much we can do than cross our fingers and hope that someone in the decision making chain has enough intelligence/experience/respect to influence better decisions.

[Stillwater]

Hunter wont likey be more than a career starter which is a major compromise at 3...he is a safe pick but not a good reward for tanking at all. I mean if your going to pick safe you take Culver there and pray RJ doesnt take over the league.
RJ is going to struggle some early on until he improves his shot but we could say the same thing was said about Sexton and hes proven everyone wrong. I would still take Barrett at 3 because he is a very solid creator and far better than Hunter Culver etc. My point is you never draft for need while settling to do so...it always bites you later. Taking Reddish at 3 for fit would be catastrophic .

[gflem]

I think they end up at 3, with Ja or Barrett being the likely pick whoever is left. I like Hunter at 5 or 6, if that is where we land. Would love to see us get #1 just for the reaction here on Real GM. Peoples heads would literally be exploding. I will have to crack open a couple of cold ones and just read the Draft board reaction while laughing my a$$ off.

[Revenged25]

Hunter wont likey be more than a career starter which is a major compromise at 3...he is a safe pick but not a good reward for tanking at all. I mean if your going to pick safe you take Culver there and pray RJ doesnt take over the league.
RJ is going to struggle some early on until he improves his shot but we could say the same thing was said about Sexton and hes proven everyone wrong. I would still take Barrett at 3 because he is a very solid creator and far better than Hunter Culver etc. My point is you never draft for need while settling to do so...it always bites you later. Taking Reddish at 3 for fit would be catastrophic .

I think if we end up with a top 3 pick, depending on where we pick we'll be walking away with Zion, Morant, or Barrett unless something major, medical or legal, comes up between now and the draft that gets us to not draft them. Barrett from all reports is an extremely hard worker and although his shot is streaky, so I think the staff would be confident in his ability to develop. Not to mention I think they would really like the idea of two players with extreme work ethics in Sexton/Barrett to set the example for other players on the team as well.

[Stillwater]

Hunter wont likey be more than a career starter which is a major compromise at 3...he is a safe pick but not a good reward for tanking at all. I mean if your going to pick safe you take Culver there and pray RJ doesnt take over the league.
RJ is going to struggle some early on until he improves his shot but we could say the same thing was said about Sexton and hes proven everyone wrong. I would still take Barrett at 3 because he is a very solid creator and far better than Hunter Culver etc. My point is you never draft for need while settling to do so...it always bites you later. Taking Reddish at 3 for fit would be catastrophic .

I think if we end up with a top 3 pick, depending on where we pick we'll be walking away with Zion, Morant, or Barrett unless something major, medical or legal, comes up between now and the draft that gets us to not draft them. Barrett from all reports is an extremely hard worker and although his shot is streaky, so I think the staff would be confident in his ability to develop. Not to mention I think they would really like the idea of two players with extreme work ethics in Sexton/Barrett to set the example for other players on the team as well.

Yeah but Barrett would be the main ball handler so it seems they will have to have decided Morant or Barrett are in that role with Sexton playing mostly off ball which is fine but not ideal. I think there is another couple possibilities at 3 that might come into play if they are dumb enough to pick for fit instead of the BPA. I mean if you are going to be set on fit over bpa, then you trade down pick up assets and build a team full of role players and try to lure a marquise FA... but I am inclined to think it will be much smarter to draft the bpa and make it work and if it doesn't you then make value moves in trades.

[JonFromVA]

Hunter wont likey be more than a career starter which is a major compromise at 3...he is a safe pick but not a good reward for tanking at all. I mean if your going to pick safe you take Culver there and pray RJ doesnt take over the league.
RJ is going to struggle some early on until he improves his shot but we could say the same thing was said about Sexton and hes proven everyone wrong. I would still take Barrett at 3 because he is a very solid creator and far better than Hunter Culver etc. My point is you never draft for need while settling to do so...it always bites you later. Taking Reddish at 3 for fit would be catastrophic .

My point is that (for better or worse) they may not agree with your appraisal and will act appropriately. If so, you should try to cut 'em some slack and see if their reasoning makes sense and/or their choice works out. Don't presume they're acting blindly selecting for fit while turning their back on a much better player.

A lot of people felt the Celtics were trading talent (Fultz) for fit (Tatum) when they swapped #1 for #3 with the 76'ers, but it sure hasn't worked out that way so far.

Furthermore, some of these high-upside guys are so raw, the odds of having to pay them a max salary before they've developed to the point of earning it is pretty likely. I mean would you really still want Andrew Wiggins? Let's drop Embiid due to his injury risk like the Cavs did, but Jokic taken #41 should have been the guy and that had little to do with fit or upside but pure talent projection that somehow Denver not only figured out but doubled down on by taking Nurkic at 16th in the same draft.

[Stillwater]

[Dupp]

It would be funny if we won. People would get very mad

[Stillwater]

we are winning

[Stillwater]

Well that sucked...
so the top 3 of Zion,Ja and RJ and probably going to hold... will be interesting who the Lakers are picking for and if they take somebody the Cavs are targeting.

I'm betting Sekou,Porter,Culver and Hunter is as the most likely pick, but would not rule out them gambling on Bol,Reddish or Little.

[gflem]

I'm thinking Hunter, Culver, Reddish, or Little in that order. It will be interesting to see where AD ends up now, and if the Knicks or Lakers (more likely Lakers) have interest in trying to trade for Love if they don't get AD.
Atl really got hosed, as did Chicago. Boston lost out but that just makes it easier for me to accept the Cavs moving down.
It does seem rigged in that the Lakers continue to move up year after year, and especially now that Lebron is there, and that most of the young players there who don't want to be there after the almost AD trade fiasco will now likely be moved to NO along with the 4th pick that LA was just gifted. I don't know, I've just been around too long to believe in coincidence.

[JonFromVA]

Ouch ... now we might not even have the chance to draft Hunter. But maybe Beilein pushes for the Michigan kid that declared. Doomsday scenario? lol