Game 32 : Atlanta Hawks (13-17) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (10-21) - 7:00PM

[Stillwater]

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202102230CLE.html

Scroll down to advanced box score

Here's how they're defining their "advanced" box score number

"BPM -- Box Plus/Minus
A box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team."

You'd agree with me that the estimate is far more speculative than the actual +/- that occurred on the court? Especially if you're estimating based on a single game?

They're really two different things because BPM is trying to estimate how much an individual player contributed based on box-score stats, whereas +/- is the actual/measurable performance of the team when an individual was on the floor.

So, Collin had better box score stats, but the team performed better when Darius was on the floor. Both can be misleading if you're trying to make measure individual contribution, but the bottom line in my book is always going to be team performance.

Speaking of, Collin has actually improved his net +/- quite a bit this season and of our active players he has the highest on-court +/- (unless you count Windler who's rising). The problem is that number is -7.8 pp100 which is terrible.

That's why personally, while I love the +/- stat, I haven't been bringing it up much and have been focused on the need to get players healthy, fill our holes, and get our rotations settled down. Even the best smelling piece of poo is still poo.

LOL if the team performs better when Darius is on the floor & one of the teammates is always Sexton , what does that tell us class?
I'd bet cash money DGs stats would not make the team better without Sexton on the floor.

[jbk1234]

Here's how they're defining their "advanced" box score number

"BPM -- Box Plus/Minus
A box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team."

You'd agree with me that the estimate is far more speculative than the actual +/- that occurred on the court? Especially if you're estimating based on a single game?

They're really two different things because BPM is trying to estimate how much an individual player contributed based on box-score stats, whereas +/- is the actual/measurable performance of the team when an individual was on the floor.

So, Collin had better box score stats, but the team performed better when Darius was on the floor. Both can be misleading if you're trying to make measure individual contribution, but the bottom line in my book is always going to be team performance.

Speaking of, Collin has actually improved his net +/- quite a bit this season and of our active players he has the highest on-court +/- (unless you count Windler who's rising). The problem is that number is -7.8 pp100 which is terrible.

That's why personally, while I love the +/- stat, I haven't been bringing it up much and have been focused on the need to get players healthy, fill our holes, and get our rotations settled down. Even the best smelling piece of poo is still poo.

LOL if the team performs better when Darius is on the floor & one of the teammates is always Sexton , what does that tell us class?
I'd bet cash money DGs stats would not make the team better without Sexton on the floor.

What do people think +/- actually measures?

[Stillwater]

They're really two different things because BPM is trying to estimate how much an individual player contributed based on box-score stats, whereas +/- is the actual/measurable performance of the team when an individual was on the floor.

So, Collin had better box score stats, but the team performed better when Darius was on the floor. Both can be misleading if you're trying to make measure individual contribution, but the bottom line in my book is always going to be team performance.

Speaking of, Collin has actually improved his net +/- quite a bit this season and of our active players he has the highest on-court +/- (unless you count Windler who's rising). The problem is that number is -7.8 pp100 which is terrible.

That's why personally, while I love the +/- stat, I haven't been bringing it up much and have been focused on the need to get players healthy, fill our holes, and get our rotations settled down. Even the best smelling piece of poo is still poo.

LOL if the team performs better when Darius is on the floor & one of the teammates is always Sexton , what does that tell us class?
I'd bet cash money DGs stats would not make the team better without Sexton on the floor.

What do people think +/- actually measures?

Its all subjective imo and not really that informative when the team might as well be tanking and bad enough to lose even when they are not.
These stats mean more to me when delving into how a player performed against certain types of defenses for optimizing line ups on certain match ups than anything like who is the better player

[JonFromVA]

Here's how they're defining their "advanced" box score number

"BPM -- Box Plus/Minus
A box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team."

You'd agree with me that the estimate is far more speculative than the actual +/- that occurred on the court? Especially if you're estimating based on a single game?

They're really two different things because BPM is trying to estimate how much an individual player contributed based on box-score stats, whereas +/- is the actual/measurable performance of the team when an individual was on the floor.

So, Collin had better box score stats, but the team performed better when Darius was on the floor. Both can be misleading if you're trying to make measure individual contribution, but the bottom line in my book is always going to be team performance.

Speaking of, Collin has actually improved his net +/- quite a bit this season and of our active players he has the highest on-court +/- (unless you count Windler who's rising). The problem is that number is -7.8 pp100 which is terrible.

That's why personally, while I love the +/- stat, I haven't been bringing it up much and have been focused on the need to get players healthy, fill our holes, and get our rotations settled down. Even the best smelling piece of poo is still poo.

LOL if the team performs better when Darius is on the floor & one of the teammates is always Sexton , what does that tell us class?
I'd bet cash money DGs stats would not make the team better without Sexton on the floor.

Oh, we were seeing just that before the team took the nose dive, but not much since, and JBB has been fiddling with the lineups since because things haven't been working with any of the lineups he'd tried.

[JonFromVA]

LOL if the team performs better when Darius is on the floor & one of the teammates is always Sexton , what does that tell us class?
I'd bet cash money DGs stats would not make the team better without Sexton on the floor.

What do people think +/- actually measures?

Its all subjective imo and not really that informative when the team might as well be tanking and bad enough to lose even when they are not.
These stats mean more to me when delving into how a player performed against certain types of defenses for optimizing line ups on certain match ups than anything like who is the better player

Well, for starters +/- is not subjective and it doesn't measure who's the better player; but it does tell you how the team or a unit has performed when a given player is on the court. In other words, it measures success ... and all the other stats don't mean much if they don't contribute to success.

[Stillwater]

What do people think +/- actually measures?

Its all subjective imo and not really that informative when the team might as well be tanking and bad enough to lose even when they are not.
These stats mean more to me when delving into how a player performed against certain types of defenses for optimizing line ups on certain match ups than anything like who is the better player

Well, for starters +/- is not subjective and it doesn't measure who's the better player; but it does tell you how the team or a unit has performed when a given player is on the court. In other words, it measures success ... and all the other stats don't mean much if they don't contribute to success.

I dont buy much of it at all during a rebuild but thats cool I just get the feeling some of you are employees of APBRmetrics lol

[JonFromVA]

Its all subjective imo and not really that informative when the team might as well be tanking and bad enough to lose even when they are not.
These stats mean more to me when delving into how a player performed against certain types of defenses for optimizing line ups on certain match ups than anything like who is the better player

Well, for starters +/- is not subjective and it doesn't measure who's the better player; but it does tell you how the team or a unit has performed when a given player is on the court. In other words, it measures success ... and all the other stats don't mean much if they don't contribute to success.

I dont buy much of it at all during a rebuild but thats cool I just get the feeling some of you are employees of APBRmetrics lol

APBRmetics? Nah ... +/- is just another counting stat until people start throwing it in to predictive models and generating things like APM, RAPM, etc, etc; and honestly that's how I like it.

Like with any counting stat, you need to take context in to account or you will invariably draw bad conclusions.

I mean, it's not like Collin's tunnel vision on offense is any secret - it's on display every night. Dylan Windler hasn't missed a 3pt shot in two games and he's running circles around the floor trying to get open and Collin stands there pounding the ball, doesn't even glance his way.

But how do we quantify it? How do we determine if his scoring and efficiency actually help the team more than his tunnel vision and defense hurt the team? We can use +/- and look at the lineups, and we can see his numbers have improved this season.

We can imagine him in lineups that might make better use of his talents, but we can only speculate about that unless we actually see lineups that hint at how that might play out.

Pretty fundamental stuff ... make a theory, then use data to constantly test it. That's simply put a rational approach.

[Stillwater]

Well, for starters +/- is not subjective and it doesn't measure who's the better player; but it does tell you how the team or a unit has performed when a given player is on the court. In other words, it measures success ... and all the other stats don't mean much if they don't contribute to success.

I dont buy much of it at all during a rebuild but thats cool I just get the feeling some of you are employees of APBRmetrics lol

APBRmetics? Nah ... +/- is just another counting stat until people start throwing it in to predictive models and generating things like APM, RAPM, etc, etc; and honestly that's how I like it.

Like with any counting stat, you need to take context in to account or you will invariably draw bad conclusions.

I mean, it's not like Collin's tunnel vision on offense is any secret - it's on display every night. Dylan Windler hasn't missed a 3pt shot in two games and he's running circles around the floor trying to get open and Collin stands there pounding the ball, doesn't even glance his way.

But how do we quantify it? How do we determine if his scoring and efficiency actually help the team more than his tunnel vision and defense hurt the team? We can use +/- and look at the lineups, and we can see his numbers have improved this season.

We can imagine him in lineups that might make better use of his talents, but we can only speculate about that unless we actually see lineups that hint at how that might play out.

Pretty fundamental stuff ... make a theory, then use data to constantly test it. That's simply put a rational approach.

The struggles that you see Collin having are not what is happening. Thats is guard measuring and baiting until a defender moves based on the teammate movement before he strikes...and if they dont bite then he has even more justification to search for his own shots until they do or he can follow the coaching protocol to less dynamic players to just pass out of it and look like they are clueless when in reality he could have easily made space for himself to chuck it.

[Revenged25]

What do people think +/- actually measures?

Its all subjective imo and not really that informative when the team might as well be tanking and bad enough to lose even when they are not.
These stats mean more to me when delving into how a player performed against certain types of defenses for optimizing line ups on certain match ups than anything like who is the better player

Well, for starters +/- is not subjective and it doesn't measure who's the better player; but it does tell you how the team or a unit has performed when a given player is on the court. In other words, it measures success ... and all the other stats don't mean much if they don't contribute to success.

Also +/- doesn't actually take into account who a player is on the court with. Since Sexton is normally on the court with the B team he's going to have a worse pure +/- than Garland who is typically on the court with better players.

[jbk1234]

Its all subjective imo and not really that informative when the team might as well be tanking and bad enough to lose even when they are not.
These stats mean more to me when delving into how a player performed against certain types of defenses for optimizing line ups on certain match ups than anything like who is the better player

Well, for starters +/- is not subjective and it doesn't measure who's the better player; but it does tell you how the team or a unit has performed when a given player is on the court. In other words, it measures success ... and all the other stats don't mean much if they don't contribute to success.

Also +/- doesn't actually take into account who a player is on the court with. Since Sexton is normally on the court with the B team he's going to have a worse pure +/- than Garland who is typically on the court with better players.

They're both on the court with the B team. That's not what's happening. Garland had 10 assists last night.

[JonFromVA]

Its all subjective imo and not really that informative when the team might as well be tanking and bad enough to lose even when they are not.
These stats mean more to me when delving into how a player performed against certain types of defenses for optimizing line ups on certain match ups than anything like who is the better player

Well, for starters +/- is not subjective and it doesn't measure who's the better player; but it does tell you how the team or a unit has performed when a given player is on the court. In other words, it measures success ... and all the other stats don't mean much if they don't contribute to success.

Also +/- doesn't actually take into account who a player is on the court with. Since Sexton is normally on the court with the B team he's going to have a worse pure +/- than Garland who is typically on the court with better players.

The rotations vary, and we can examine stuff like that by looking at the lineup data; but I already know the problem and it's that we still lack a replacement for Exum (a backup PG ideally with some height/defense) we can pair with Collin when Darius is out.

[Stillwater]

Well, for starters +/- is not subjective and it doesn't measure who's the better player; but it does tell you how the team or a unit has performed when a given player is on the court. In other words, it measures success ... and all the other stats don't mean much if they don't contribute to success.

Also +/- doesn't actually take into account who a player is on the court with. Since Sexton is normally on the court with the B team he's going to have a worse pure +/- than Garland who is typically on the court with better players.

The rotations vary, and we can examine stuff like that by looking at the lineup data; but I already know the problem and it's that we still lack a replacement for Exum (a backup PG ideally with some height/defense) we can pair with Collin when Darius is out.

The problem here for me really remains to be despite his skill level as a point guard being more instinctive and engraved on his skill set than Sexton who is a score first guard by nature despite the advances in skill he shows flashes of having but rarely utilizing , DG lacks the physicality to compete at the pro level defensively so far.
But the good news what I am seeing is having the 3rd shooter in Windler made a huge difference for the way defenses line up against Sexton and DG esp when they also have that man in the middle creating offense through his defense.
I think given they are all in on Okoro starting and taking those outside shots when open WIndler has to be the Exum replacement. He is more than capable of playing next to either back court guard problem then though is most teams will go big and force the cavs to play somebody else instead of 2 guards 2 swingman and one center

[JonFromVA]

I dont buy much of it at all during a rebuild but thats cool I just get the feeling some of you are employees of APBRmetrics lol

APBRmetics? Nah ... +/- is just another counting stat until people start throwing it in to predictive models and generating things like APM, RAPM, etc, etc; and honestly that's how I like it.

Like with any counting stat, you need to take context in to account or you will invariably draw bad conclusions.

I mean, it's not like Collin's tunnel vision on offense is any secret - it's on display every night. Dylan Windler hasn't missed a 3pt shot in two games and he's running circles around the floor trying to get open and Collin stands there pounding the ball, doesn't even glance his way.

But how do we quantify it? How do we determine if his scoring and efficiency actually help the team more than his tunnel vision and defense hurt the team? We can use +/- and look at the lineups, and we can see his numbers have improved this season.

We can imagine him in lineups that might make better use of his talents, but we can only speculate about that unless we actually see lineups that hint at how that might play out.

Pretty fundamental stuff ... make a theory, then use data to constantly test it. That's simply put a rational approach.

The struggles that you see Collin having are not what is happening. Thats is guard measuring and baiting until a defender moves based on the teammate movement before he strikes...and if they dont bite then he has even more justification to search for his own shots until they do or he can follow the coaching protocol to less dynamic players to just pass out of it and look like they are clueless when in reality he could have easily made space for himself to chuck it.

I don't see this, but let's assume it's true for the moment and understand there are ramifications. If Collin continues to ignore Windler while he's taking laps around the floor, eventually Windler is going to stop and park himself in a corner and watch Sexton until he decides what he's going to do.

One of the fundamental roles of a PG (or just a good teammate) is to reward teammates for effort.

Which is not to say, Collin always ignores Windler; but Collin missing open teammates happens a lot. How do we know if it's happening too much? How do we know if his own scoring is carrying the team? We can see it in +/-.

Just like we used to see it with Delly and Kyrie when they ran the second unit. On what planet is Delly equal to Kyrie? Well, the answer is when asked to run a sub-par second unit. If Kyrie's shooting wasn't red-hot, we were better off with Delly, or better yet by pulling LeBron early and getting him back in the game (which is what we eventually had to do in the playoffs).

[Stillwater]

APBRmetics? Nah ... +/- is just another counting stat until people start throwing it in to predictive models and generating things like APM, RAPM, etc, etc; and honestly that's how I like it.

Like with any counting stat, you need to take context in to account or you will invariably draw bad conclusions.

I mean, it's not like Collin's tunnel vision on offense is any secret - it's on display every night. Dylan Windler hasn't missed a 3pt shot in two games and he's running circles around the floor trying to get open and Collin stands there pounding the ball, doesn't even glance his way.

But how do we quantify it? How do we determine if his scoring and efficiency actually help the team more than his tunnel vision and defense hurt the team? We can use +/- and look at the lineups, and we can see his numbers have improved this season.

We can imagine him in lineups that might make better use of his talents, but we can only speculate about that unless we actually see lineups that hint at how that might play out.

Pretty fundamental stuff ... make a theory, then use data to constantly test it. That's simply put a rational approach.

The struggles that you see Collin having are not what is happening. Thats is guard measuring and baiting until a defender moves based on the teammate movement before he strikes...and if they dont bite then he has even more justification to search for his own shots until they do or he can follow the coaching protocol to less dynamic players to just pass out of it and look like they are clueless when in reality he could have easily made space for himself to chuck it.

I don't see this, but let's assume it's true for the moment and understand there are ramifications. If Collin continues to ignore Windler while he's taking laps around the floor, eventually Windler is going to stop and park himself in a corner and watch Sexton until he decides what he's going to do.

One of the fundamental roles of a PG (or just a good teammate) is to reward teammates for effort.

Which is not to say, Collin always ignores Windler; but Collin missing open teammates happens a lot. How do we know if it's happening too much? How do we know if his own scoring is carrying the team? We can see it in +/-.

Just like we used to see it with Delly and Kyrie when they ran the second unit. On what planet is Delly equal to Kyrie? Well, the answer is when asked to run a sub-par second unit. If Kyrie's shooting wasn't red-hot, we were better off with Delly, or better yet by pulling LeBron early and getting him back in the game (which is what we eventually had to do in the playoffs).

I got it...you want him to fail makes a ton of sense.
You are not seeing what the defenses are doing at all so keep trusting your +- buddy lol

[Revenged25]

Well, for starters +/- is not subjective and it doesn't measure who's the better player; but it does tell you how the team or a unit has performed when a given player is on the court. In other words, it measures success ... and all the other stats don't mean much if they don't contribute to success.

Also +/- doesn't actually take into account who a player is on the court with. Since Sexton is normally on the court with the B team he's going to have a worse pure +/- than Garland who is typically on the court with better players.

They're both on the court with the B team. That's not what's happening. Garland had 10 assists last night.

And 8 turnovers...

[jbk1234]

I dont buy much of it at all during a rebuild but thats cool I just get the feeling some of you are employees of APBRmetrics lol

APBRmetics? Nah ... +/- is just another counting stat until people start throwing it in to predictive models and generating things like APM, RAPM, etc, etc; and honestly that's how I like it.

Like with any counting stat, you need to take context in to account or you will invariably draw bad conclusions.

I mean, it's not like Collin's tunnel vision on offense is any secret - it's on display every night. Dylan Windler hasn't missed a 3pt shot in two games and he's running circles around the floor trying to get open and Collin stands there pounding the ball, doesn't even glance his way.

But how do we quantify it? How do we determine if his scoring and efficiency actually help the team more than his tunnel vision and defense hurt the team? We can use +/- and look at the lineups, and we can see his numbers have improved this season.

We can imagine him in lineups that might make better use of his talents, but we can only speculate about that unless we actually see lineups that hint at how that might play out.

Pretty fundamental stuff ... make a theory, then use data to constantly test it. That's simply put a rational approach.

The struggles that you see Collin having are not what is happening. Thats is guard measuring and baiting until a defender moves based on the teammate movement before he strikes...and if they dont bite then he has even more justification to search for his own shots until they do or he can follow the coaching protocol to less dynamic players to just pass out of it and look like they are clueless when in reality he could have easily made space for himself to chuck it.

The struggles you're watching are exactly what's happening. He doesn't have to make space for himself because, at least three or four times a game he's open, but allowing the defender to recover so he can drive on him. Of course he's been scouted, and the league knows that his strong preference is drive into the paint, and they're defending him accordingly.

Other items that explain the delta between his box and his +/-. He's looking to run before the Cavs secure the defensive rebound which turns into a problem when we don't because we're playing 4 on 5 defensively. He's arguing non-calls too often which is leading to 5-4 breaks the other way where he often only bothers recovering late, because again, he's cherry picking and looking for an easy bucket. He's playing uninspired defense or just plain bad defense. These are things that he could fix with energy or *work ethic.* Some of that can be explained by both he and Garland playing too many minutes due to the absence of a backup PG, but not all of it.

[jbk1234]

Also +/- doesn't actually take into account who a player is on the court with. Since Sexton is normally on the court with the B team he's going to have a worse pure +/- than Garland who is typically on the court with better players.

They're both on the court with the B team. That's not what's happening. Garland had 10 assists last night.

And 8 turnovers...

And was +19 which was highest on the team.

[Revenged25]

They're both on the court with the B team. That's not what's happening. Garland had 10 assists last night.

And 8 turnovers...

And was +19 which was highest on the team.

And was always on the court with the majority of the starters boosting up his +/- while others had to contend with playing with McGee for extended periods.

[jbk1234]

And 8 turnovers...

And was +19 which was highest on the team.

And was always on the court with the majority of the starters boosting up his +/- while others had to contend with playing with McGee for extended periods.

It is simply untrue that he was always on the court with the majority of the starters (also Wade was a starter). Cedi and Windler were on the court for more than 20 minutes last night and had a +/- of +16 and +11. Stevens and McGee were next in minutes (11 and 10) off the bench and both had -1.

[jbk1234]

The struggles that you see Collin having are not what is happening. Thats is guard measuring and baiting until a defender moves based on the teammate movement before he strikes...and if they dont bite then he has even more justification to search for his own shots until they do or he can follow the coaching protocol to less dynamic players to just pass out of it and look like they are clueless when in reality he could have easily made space for himself to chuck it.

I don't see this, but let's assume it's true for the moment and understand there are ramifications. If Collin continues to ignore Windler while he's taking laps around the floor, eventually Windler is going to stop and park himself in a corner and watch Sexton until he decides what he's going to do.

One of the fundamental roles of a PG (or just a good teammate) is to reward teammates for effort.

Which is not to say, Collin always ignores Windler; but Collin missing open teammates happens a lot. How do we know if it's happening too much? How do we know if his own scoring is carrying the team? We can see it in +/-.

Just like we used to see it with Delly and Kyrie when they ran the second unit. On what planet is Delly equal to Kyrie? Well, the answer is when asked to run a sub-par second unit. If Kyrie's shooting wasn't red-hot, we were better off with Delly, or better yet by pulling LeBron early and getting him back in the game (which is what we eventually had to do in the playoffs).

I got it...you want him to fail makes a ton of sense.
You are not seeing what the defenses are doing at all so keep trusting your +- buddy lol

I'm seeing exactly what the defenses are doing. It's not terribly difficult to comprehend. The question is whether he can adjust his game to it.