JonFromVA wrote:jbk1234 wrote:JonFromVA wrote:
And that's what makes building through the lottery so much fun ... if you overpay you may end up with dead weight you can't trade, if you refuse to pay you lose an asset for nothing, if you trade you risk ending up with a bad return, and if you underpay you risk alienating the player and eventually losing him.
Trading Milwaukee's unprotected pick for Allen when it looks like it's going to be late first rounder was a no-brainer, but that was still apparently the best Houston/Philly could get for him (and move Prince too). Sure team's don't like investing in the C position, but that doesn't stop teams taking C's in the top-5 year after year that *might* end up being better than Allen.
I think Allen will be a top 3 center within a couple years. Depending on how you feel about KAT and Gobert, I think there's an argument that he's already there. But the circumstances surrounding that trade were ideal for the Cavs and I'm not sure using that as a bench mark for value is a good predictor.
I'm 100% okay with running the risk of alienating a player by not offering an extension you don't have to offer them - especially within the RFA context. If you're not certain the guy is a max player, then there's no good reason for a team to make that financial commitment before they have to.
Owners negotiating for that advantage via the CBA and then just surrendering it because derp, hurt feelings, is the greatest trick agents have ever pulled.
top-3? I don't think so. Not if Jokic and Embiid are still in the league, and guys like Anthony Davis can swing over there when they feel like it, and then there's the other young C's like Ayton and Wiseman. But still ... terrific value for what appears to be a late pick. A lot of deals of that nature are being in the right place at the right time and having a way and the will to absorb salary.
As much as we might like to see them take a hard line,
the Cavs are going to bend over backwards not to upset players and/or agents because there are repercussions. Hopefully negotiations go smoothly and we simply don't have to max players that don't deserve it; but I'm not counting on it.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. The risks of alienating agents and/or players by not paying the player early are greatly overstated. The rewards for doing so are mostly fictional. No player is going to do what Noel did again. He'll never make that money up. Not in his entire career. The next player coming off a rookie contract to turn down a 5 year max from his current team in RFA will be the first player to do so in the history of the league. It's pretty wild how a $100M smooths over hurt feelings.
What goodwill did the Cavs get from JR, TT, and LBJ for playing that game? JR said you can send me home and pay me $16M not to play, but I'm not taking a buyout his last year. After getting that ridiculous contract from the Cavs the first time, TT said I'll extend in Cleveland but only for the max. Dude is playing on the MLE right now and it's not clear that he's viewed as worth it around the league. LBJ signed a series of one-and-one deals here, and as soon as he landed in L.A., he signed a multi-year deal so other FAs would know he wasn't going anywhere.
The two most important factors in being able to sign a player in F.A. are (1) winning; and (2) money. If you can provide those two things, you've got a shot. If you can't, goodwill with an agent isn't getting you anything. You're far more likely to be able to provide those things if you don't manage your cap effectively. Frankly, at least half the recruiting is done player-to-player these days anyway.
The Mavs have played the goodwill game with agents for over a decade and the last big FA signing they had was DAJ, who agreed to a contract and then backed out before the signing date. His agent was so pissed he quit but that didn't stop DAJ from re-signing with the Clippers.
Danny Ainge traded IT after the guy played hurt and on the heels of him playing immediately after his own sister's funeral in the playoffs. It was considered the heart and soul of the team at the time. How was Ainge punished, by Kemba Walker spurning the Mavs and signing with the Celtics the following season.
Players and agents aren't dumb. They know that signing with a team whose books are a mess is the road to perdition. The Knicks and Bulls haven't gotten a serious look from a blue chip FA in forever. Their reward for failing to to manage their cap well is basically being viewed as a last resort where players only sign if the team is offering 150% of market value. The relationship thing is basically a marketing ploy at this point and sports journalists are more than happy to credulously go along with it, but that doesn't make it any more real.
