Round:2 - Cavs vs Celtics
Posted: Wed Apr 28, 2010 8:12 pm
This is one of those series (Like Dallas/San Antonio) that could have a few "ugly" moments. These two teams do not like each other, and when they play... That Woofin' is non-stop; from BOTH sides!!!
Normally, I'd say that the Cavaliers should win this series in 5 or maybe 6 games. However, due to the competitive nature of the two teams' main stars (LeBron,Shaq,Mo,/Big-3) I think this is one of those series where you can throw out most of the stats. Let me break it down like this:
PG: Rondo is the superior PG, both at running a team, and defensively. Mo is the more dangerous scorer, but due to Rondo's defense, I am inclined to give them a draw at the scoring end. This would seemingly give Rondo the edge, as he is the better play-maker... the thing is, Mo isn't the play-maker for the Cavs. He plays the point, but is really just a glorified, undersized SG. I think that Mo will average more points, while Rondo will get a lot more assists and boards. However, I think that due to the nature of the Cavaliers' offense being predicated on LeBron, rather than Mo, that this evens these two out, and makes this position a draw... even though Rondo is CLEARLY the better PG!
SG: Both Anthony Parker and Ray Allen are excellent defenders, and both can drive, and shoot the 3-ball. That being said, Ray is the better, and more dangerous scorer. Ray can shoot his three off the dribble, with relatively high accuracy. Parker is not very good when he is forced to shoot the three off the dribble, on a pull-up. Ray gets the nod here, as he is the better scorer, and I believe he is the more versatile defender as well.
SF: Both LeBron and Paul are in the top 3 at their position in the NBA. Either can score 40-50 points on any given night, and both are triple double threats. In addition, both players are good defenders, and team leaders. LeBron gets the edge here mostly due to his strength & Speed advantages, which also allow him to defend 4 positions on the floor; making him more versatile for the Cavs than Paul is for the Celtics. LeBron has had issues for the last month with his elbow, and it has the possibility of being an issue, although he says it is fine. That being the case (the possibility of the elbow being an issue), I am inclined to make this match-up a closer fight, than normal: Normally, I'd give LeBron the clear-cut advantage with speed,size, and youth... but a possible injury makes this a closer battle in my opinion....regardless of what LeBron says.
PF: Kevin Garnett and Antawn Jamison should be one of the more interesting match-ups of the series. Kevin is a sure-fire HOFer, and age is creeping up on him. However, he seems relatively healthy right now, and has played well in the post season. Both players are past their prime, but Antawn has remained mostly injury free, and due to the way Washington played, he did not take as much of a pounding as most PFs do... he was more like a 2nd Small forward, even though he played PF. As far as defense goes, Kevin is far and away the better defender, as Antawn has never been known for his defensive prowess. Antawn is the better, more versatile scorer - He is dangerous from the 3pt-line, yet can drive the ball to the paint, and can post-up smaller players. If Garnett is guarding Antawn, he (Jamison) will likely draw Kevin to the perimeter by shooting 3's; if the Celtics switch-up defenders (say Pierce or TAllen), then Antawn will post-up. The wide range of possibilities between Kevin and Antawn ensure that this will be one of the MAIN areas of concern for both teams! It wouldn't surprise me if the winner of this battle was the main factor in which team won the game/series.
Center: Perkins has the advantage of youth...BY MILES, and he has turned into a really good defender. Shaq, although older, and just a glimmer of his former self, is still a big guy, who can, at times, turn it on! When Shaq has the ball in the paint, he still commands a double, as there isn't any center in the league (Possible exception of healthy Yao Ming) that can prevent him from backing them down. Shaq does have a propensity of using his elbows on these drives though, and often gets offensive fouls called on him for it (9 in the Chicago series). Overall, I give Perkins the edge, because he is likely to stay on the floor longer, thus be more valuable to his team.
The Benches: For the Celtics, Davis, TAllen, and Finley are your best bench guys. Nate, Daniels, and Wallace could be big factors too, but are not as reliable as the other 3. For the Cavaliers, Varejao, West, Moon, Hickson, Ilgauskas, and Gibson will likely be the active bench guys, with West, Varejao and Moon getting the majority of the bench minutes. Powe is also a possibility, but knowing MB, he is unlikely to make Powe play against his former team/friends. I believe that the edge here is definitely weighted to the Cavaliers. West and Varejao were both starters last year, but were moved to the bench so it would be stronger. In addition, Jamario Moon has played well, and is a versatile defender who can also shoot the 3. Ilgauskas and Hickson give the Cavaliers 2 big men... coming off the bench, who started a combined 80 games this year. This gives the Cavaliers a LOT of depth in the front-court, where I think this series will be decided.
Final analysis: Despite the woofing that is always going on between these two teams, it is not due to a lack of respect. These teams respect one another, and both know that this series will be a dog-fight - that may include a few ejections. This may be the only true rivalry left in the Eastern conference right now, as these two teams have been battling for conference supremacy for the last 3 years... both during the regular season, and the post season. Currently, Boston holds "court"... meaning, that the Celtics won the last playoff series, and since they were even during the regular season, Boston feels that the Cavaliers have to "take" the series from them, despite the fact that the Cavaliers have home-court.
As I said when I started this post, this series is going to be very competitive, and will be a knock-down, drag-out affair. Whoever (whichever) team wins this series...will have earned it, as no Ref will be able to keep up with all the hard fouls that will be dealt out (by both teams). This should make for an EXTREMELY entertaining series, and possibly the best series of the 2010 post-season.
I will give the edge to the home team, but wont go any farther than saying: "they have the edge." However, one game can change that...which is why I wont go any further in my predictions. What I will say is this: Whatever team wins this series... I think they will go on to win the 2010 NBA title. I think this because I don't believe either team will face a more determined team than they will this series; all other teams will be "determined-lite", in contrast.
Normally, I'd say that the Cavaliers should win this series in 5 or maybe 6 games. However, due to the competitive nature of the two teams' main stars (LeBron,Shaq,Mo,/Big-3) I think this is one of those series where you can throw out most of the stats. Let me break it down like this:
PG: Rondo is the superior PG, both at running a team, and defensively. Mo is the more dangerous scorer, but due to Rondo's defense, I am inclined to give them a draw at the scoring end. This would seemingly give Rondo the edge, as he is the better play-maker... the thing is, Mo isn't the play-maker for the Cavs. He plays the point, but is really just a glorified, undersized SG. I think that Mo will average more points, while Rondo will get a lot more assists and boards. However, I think that due to the nature of the Cavaliers' offense being predicated on LeBron, rather than Mo, that this evens these two out, and makes this position a draw... even though Rondo is CLEARLY the better PG!
SG: Both Anthony Parker and Ray Allen are excellent defenders, and both can drive, and shoot the 3-ball. That being said, Ray is the better, and more dangerous scorer. Ray can shoot his three off the dribble, with relatively high accuracy. Parker is not very good when he is forced to shoot the three off the dribble, on a pull-up. Ray gets the nod here, as he is the better scorer, and I believe he is the more versatile defender as well.
SF: Both LeBron and Paul are in the top 3 at their position in the NBA. Either can score 40-50 points on any given night, and both are triple double threats. In addition, both players are good defenders, and team leaders. LeBron gets the edge here mostly due to his strength & Speed advantages, which also allow him to defend 4 positions on the floor; making him more versatile for the Cavs than Paul is for the Celtics. LeBron has had issues for the last month with his elbow, and it has the possibility of being an issue, although he says it is fine. That being the case (the possibility of the elbow being an issue), I am inclined to make this match-up a closer fight, than normal: Normally, I'd give LeBron the clear-cut advantage with speed,size, and youth... but a possible injury makes this a closer battle in my opinion....regardless of what LeBron says.
PF: Kevin Garnett and Antawn Jamison should be one of the more interesting match-ups of the series. Kevin is a sure-fire HOFer, and age is creeping up on him. However, he seems relatively healthy right now, and has played well in the post season. Both players are past their prime, but Antawn has remained mostly injury free, and due to the way Washington played, he did not take as much of a pounding as most PFs do... he was more like a 2nd Small forward, even though he played PF. As far as defense goes, Kevin is far and away the better defender, as Antawn has never been known for his defensive prowess. Antawn is the better, more versatile scorer - He is dangerous from the 3pt-line, yet can drive the ball to the paint, and can post-up smaller players. If Garnett is guarding Antawn, he (Jamison) will likely draw Kevin to the perimeter by shooting 3's; if the Celtics switch-up defenders (say Pierce or TAllen), then Antawn will post-up. The wide range of possibilities between Kevin and Antawn ensure that this will be one of the MAIN areas of concern for both teams! It wouldn't surprise me if the winner of this battle was the main factor in which team won the game/series.
Center: Perkins has the advantage of youth...BY MILES, and he has turned into a really good defender. Shaq, although older, and just a glimmer of his former self, is still a big guy, who can, at times, turn it on! When Shaq has the ball in the paint, he still commands a double, as there isn't any center in the league (Possible exception of healthy Yao Ming) that can prevent him from backing them down. Shaq does have a propensity of using his elbows on these drives though, and often gets offensive fouls called on him for it (9 in the Chicago series). Overall, I give Perkins the edge, because he is likely to stay on the floor longer, thus be more valuable to his team.
The Benches: For the Celtics, Davis, TAllen, and Finley are your best bench guys. Nate, Daniels, and Wallace could be big factors too, but are not as reliable as the other 3. For the Cavaliers, Varejao, West, Moon, Hickson, Ilgauskas, and Gibson will likely be the active bench guys, with West, Varejao and Moon getting the majority of the bench minutes. Powe is also a possibility, but knowing MB, he is unlikely to make Powe play against his former team/friends. I believe that the edge here is definitely weighted to the Cavaliers. West and Varejao were both starters last year, but were moved to the bench so it would be stronger. In addition, Jamario Moon has played well, and is a versatile defender who can also shoot the 3. Ilgauskas and Hickson give the Cavaliers 2 big men... coming off the bench, who started a combined 80 games this year. This gives the Cavaliers a LOT of depth in the front-court, where I think this series will be decided.
Final analysis: Despite the woofing that is always going on between these two teams, it is not due to a lack of respect. These teams respect one another, and both know that this series will be a dog-fight - that may include a few ejections. This may be the only true rivalry left in the Eastern conference right now, as these two teams have been battling for conference supremacy for the last 3 years... both during the regular season, and the post season. Currently, Boston holds "court"... meaning, that the Celtics won the last playoff series, and since they were even during the regular season, Boston feels that the Cavaliers have to "take" the series from them, despite the fact that the Cavaliers have home-court.
As I said when I started this post, this series is going to be very competitive, and will be a knock-down, drag-out affair. Whoever (whichever) team wins this series...will have earned it, as no Ref will be able to keep up with all the hard fouls that will be dealt out (by both teams). This should make for an EXTREMELY entertaining series, and possibly the best series of the 2010 post-season.
I will give the edge to the home team, but wont go any farther than saying: "they have the edge." However, one game can change that...which is why I wont go any further in my predictions. What I will say is this: Whatever team wins this series... I think they will go on to win the 2010 NBA title. I think this because I don't believe either team will face a more determined team than they will this series; all other teams will be "determined-lite", in contrast.
