Post#5 » by heathmalc » Sat May 8, 2010 6:43 pm
Game 4 at a glance:
The biggest factor in game 4 will be the Cavaliers' ability to maintain the focus and intensity that they had in game 3, while also withstanding Boston's aggressiveness, which is sure to be there Sunday. One of the hardest things to do in the NBA playoffs, is to win back-2-back road games. According to basketball reference, it is only done 15% of the time. In the second round, that number drops to 2.3% of the time.
The Cavaliers offensively:
The Cavaliers, and particularly LeBron James, will need to maintain their aggressiveness in game #4, and I expect the Celtics to throw them a couple different looks to try and confuse them, and allow the Celtics to get a steal or fast break opportunity. The Celtics don't need to throw a bunch of changes at the Cavs, just a few different looks, a couple of times. A team only needs to get a couple straight baskets to go on a run; so it is important for the Cavaliers to maintain their discipline and keep the ball moving from side to side, as it will not allow Boston's defensive schemes to accomplish their desired effect.
Hopefully Mo Williams is using this off-day to shoot the ball a couple thousand times. He did a decent job a couple of times driving the ball in game #3, but overall, his shooting hasn't changed much. Mo is most dangerous when he can spot up and knock down 3's from the corner, or swing a side P&R with Jamison, LeBron or one of the other bigs. If Mo has a big game (18+ points), then I think the Cavaliers will likely win the game.
Antawn Jamison has to continue driving the ball like he did in game 3, as his jumpers have been very inconsistent, and when he drives the ball, there is a 77% more likelihood of him being fouled, and if he is drawing fouls along with Shaq and LeBron, then that means that the Celtics will get into trouble earlier, and that almost always turns them into a less aggressive team - which is good for the Cavs, as the more aggressive team usually wins in the playoffs.
Defensively:
As I said in previous posts; Length bothers Rondo. He doesn't deal with it very well, as he cannot post-up a player that is bigger than him...or if he can, he never does. If Anthony Parker guards Rondo again (likely), then it is important that he continue to go under the screens, and not try to go over them. By going under the screen, it makes Rondo either shoot the ball or back the ball out to reset, or kick the ball to another wing player. Another thing that I said we needed to do, and that we did do in game 3, was put more pressure on the ball when the Celtics take it out. Parker did this successfully a few times in game 3, by pressing full-court. He got beat a couple times... but that was the exception, not the rule. As long as the Cavs have time to set-up defensively, they should continue with the full & 3/4 court pressure. Delonte may have to get a little more PT in game 4, as I expect Ray allen to jack up at-least 6-8 3pt-attempts... and although Mo is quicker, he is not a great defender (although he did well in game 3). I would think that 28-33 minutes would be about right for West. Varejao will need to stay on KG like he did in game 3...as he clearly irritated Garnett on several occasions. When Antawn & Andy are in at the same time, then Andy needs to play KG, while Antawn plays center. LeBron will need to be more aware of Pierce, who will try to get out of his slump by being the more aggressive of the two. I expect PP to come out full-throttle, and it will be James' job to make him become a non-factor, by doing whatever is needed to keep PP from getting into a rhythm.
Predictions:
After the Cavaliers played poorly in game 1 & 2, and lost game 2 - nearly every Boston fan was talking as if they had a 3-1 edge, as opposed to the series being 1-1. This is one of those "fool's gold" moments. It is different for the Cavaliers, but not much different. Just because the Cavaliers won game 3 handily... that doesn't mean anything as far as game 4 goes...or the series for that matter. It is important for the Cavalier players to maintain focus and play offensively AND defensively "good" basketball for 48 minutes, if they want to buck the odds and win back-2-back road games in the playoffs. Yes, they did it last year (twice), but when they had to come together and fight (Orlando) they fell short. It's important for fans to keep this in-mind if you are expecting another 20+ point blow-out or even a win. We as fans should not begin (watching) games with the expectation of anything more than our team playing good ball. If BOTH teams play good on both sides of the ball, then it will be a good game... and it'll likely be close. However, the team that will win is the team that does the most work on both sides of the ball for as close to 48 minutes as possible. I think that team will be the Cavaliers, but I will go into the game expecting nothing more than for the Cavs to execute on both sides of the ball. Final prediction: Cavaliers by 9 (Vegas Odds will probably have Celtics favored by 1 or 2, because the Cavs won big in game 3, and that is the way the bookies usually do it... so the Cavs -technically- will likely be the underdogs for game 4).
We the People...
C:
SF:
SG:
SG:
C:
SF:
I guess that means we'll lose.