Cavalier's Path to the Eastern Conference Finals - Can't Run From the Bulls
Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2015 5:54 pm
The Western Conference first round is full of potential dream match ups like Chris Paul vs. Damian Lillard or Steph Curry vs. Russell Westbrook but try not to forget about the Eastern Conference, it's not as boring as you think it is.
Cavalier’s Path to Eastern Conference Finals — Can’t Run From the Bulls
In the NBA playoffs there is nowhere to run unlike Pamplona’s annual festivities. You are trapped playing your opponent until you are victorious four times. During the regular season you can play a run and gun style but in the postseason defence gains intensity and every player grips the ball a bit tighter. The Cavaliers can’t overlook the first two rounds if they plan on making it to where everyone expects them to be, the Eastern Conference Finals squaring off against the Atlanta Hawks.
Five years ago I never thought I would be saying this. The Cleveland Cavaliers management group has done an excellent job surrounding LeBron James with the talent he needs to be successful. Credit goes to General Manager David Griffin because we all know Dan Gilbert could not have made these intelligent decisions. If they had acted this adeptly the first time around perhaps James would never have left.
The Cavs might have slightly overpaid for Timofey Mozgov but the 28 year old Russian has expertly filled the role laid out for him. Since acquiring Timofey Cleveland’s opponents have gone from shooting 48% to 44% and score 3 less in points in the paint per game. While improved play from the rest of the team also influenced these numbers, Mozgov has had a definite impact. J.R. Smith was more concerned with “turning up” than turnovers during his time spent in New York and Cleveland isn't the most intriguing place in the world to put it mildly.This allowed him to prosper in an environment where his teammates hold him accountable for his actions. Iman Shumpert’s skill set hasn't been showcased thus far but when playoff time rolls around he will shine guarding the opposition’s elite perimeter players.
Now that the Cavaliers have figured out their identity it should be smooth sailing through the terrible East to the Conference Finals, right? The race for the final playoff spots in the Eastern conference is tight and the Cavaliers will face one of Indiana, Miami, Charlotte or Boston in the first round.
Charlotte
Charlotte would be the most difficult first round match up with quality offensive guard play from Kemba Walker and Mo Williams. Kyrie should have a field day on Walker who gambles and reaches consistently. Defensively Charlotte has solid perimeter defenders in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Gerald Henderson that can attempt to guard James. Al Jefferson would be the most troublesome Hornet as he has a plethora of moves on the block and the jumper to stretch out Mozgov. Charlotte has a relatively low pace of 93 possessions per 48 minutes and struggles shooting the three pointer which translates into a stagnant half court offense. Luckily for Cleveland this is the most unlikely first-round series as Boston and Miami would have to fall off drastically.
Key to Success: Double team Al Jefferson to make someone else beat you. Hornets are weak at power forward so let Kevin Love operate in the paint.
Cavaliers 4–1 with a few close gritty games.
Miami
Most fans are hoping for a first round reunion between LeBron James and the Miami Heat. If Chris Bosh was healthy this series would be much more interesting but unfortunately he is sidelined with blood clots in his lungs. Goran Dragic has helped Miami’s offensive execution by speeding up the pace of their game. Gaining the team five more possessions per game and providing easier baskets by getting out in transition. Dragic will have to be aggressive offensively to keep Irving on his heels. That being said Tony Parker gave Irving the business and he still dropped 57 on the Spurs. At this point it’s impossible to place limits on what Irving is capable of. When Irving is allowed to coast defensively it’s much easier for him to get his game going.
Hassan Whiteside should cause problems for the Cavaliers on the offensive glass but his post game isn't polished enough to make a major difference in the series. Hassan has problems with turnovers, foul trouble and is sloppy with his footwork. Luol Deng is the lone quality wing defender left on the roster and has played through nagging injuries for the duration of the season. If you only have one player on your roster remotely capable of keeping up with LeBron James you’re going to have big problems. It will be left upon Dwayne Wade to make this series interesting and over the past few weeks he has looked more and more like his old self. 22 points per game on 46% partnered with timely buckets have kept the Miami heat in the playoff mix.
Key to Success: Attack the basket aggressively against Whiteside to force him into foul trouble as Miami is short on bigs.
Cavaliers 4 -1
Boston
The Boston Celtics are 16–11 in February and March with a better win percentage than the Mavericks, Pelicans, Wizards, Raptors, Suns and Bucks to name a few. In the same time frame the Celtics have allowed 98 points per game and force teams to earn their points by limiting fast break points (11.8 per game) and three pointers (opponents shoot 30.5% and make 6.8 per game). On the offensive end the Celtics struggle as much as they force their opposition to. Boston doesn't score in transition, shoot the three efficiently or score points in the paint. The Celtics still use distance shooting to space the floor as 30% of their attempted field goals are threes but they only convert 31% of them.
As well as the Celtics move the ball they lack the talent to execute down the stretch of games. Sometimes you just need someone to make big plays when your offense isn't flowing and the closest Boston has is Isiah Thomas. Jared Sullinger’s season ending foot injury hurt the Celtics a lot as now they lack a low post-presence despite Brandon Bass’ strong effort. Avery Bradley’s hustle and scrappy defence should challenge Irving and the Celtics have bodies to throw at James like Jae Crowder, Evan Turner or even Gerald Wallace if he could find some playing time. Despite all this Boston just isn’t built to be a playoff team regardless of how coach Brad Stevens is making it work. Danny Ainge is probably upset that Stevens is doing such an outstanding job as he would rather have a lottery pick than a first round exit.
Key to Success: Get Love engaged to prepare for future opponents because there is no power forward on Boston who can guard Love.
Cavaliers 4–0
Round 2: Chicago
After breezing through the first round these two titans should collide for a second round battle that will go the distance. The Bulls have all the tools to compete against Cleveland, a strong front court and athletic wing defenders. Jimmy Butler and Tony Snell have the quickness to stay with LeBron but lack the size to battle with him in the paint. If James wants to be successful in this series he will have to revert to his Miami days and play in the post. This leaves Kevin Love the odd man out as when LeBron is posting up you want to play Mozgov at the 5 and then perimeter players to space out the floor. The Cavaliers should try to utilize Love when James is resting as then they can run the offence through Kevin in the high post. This way when LeBron returns to the game Kevin has warmed up and will shoot the ball better when he attempts to space things out for LeBron and Irving.
Irving will be the defining factor in this series as the Bulls don’t have a defensive point guard to match up with him. In the past Thibadeau always managed to a find a backup point guard ready to step their game up. He got the best out of Nate Robinson, D.J. Augustine or even John Lucas III but this year seems a bit different. Aaron Brooks has played well this season off the bench but he isn't consistent and is a liability defensively. Kirk Hinrich makes up for his lack of athleticism with defensive intensity and intelligence but basketball IQ can’t help you against Kyrie Irving’s quickness and handle. Hinrich has also shot the ball atrociously, 37% from the field is the lowest of his career. E’Twaun Moore has had moments during March but its unclear if he can supplant Brooks or Hinrich in the rotation. If Derrick Rose doesn’t return as his normal self, or if he endures another tragic injury, the Bulls will have to pick their poison.
Chicago’s redeeming factor is their deep frontcourt rotation. Joakim Noah always takes his intensity to another level in the postseason and now he is paired with the innately skilled Pau Gasol instead of inconsistent Carlos Boozer. Gasol is having one of the best seasons of his career and is rebounding the basketball better than ever. Nikola Mirotic has exploded in March averaging 31 minutes per game to go along with 20 points and nearly 8 rebounds. Nikola can stretch the floor against larger opponents as he is an effective long range shooter with a good handle. Against undersized players Mirotic has the post moves to take advantage of the situation. Accompanying Mirotic is Taj Gibson who could also have a starting position on many NBA teams. Taj is a tenacious defender and rebounder and should do an excellent job battling with Tristan Thompson who the Cavaliers rely on for offensive rebounds and second chance points.
The Bulls similar to the Celtics don’t shoot the three well and play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. Surprisingly in February and March Chicago has struggled to score points in the paint but this should change come playoff time. They average merely 7.8 fast break points per game so offensive efficiency and preventing turnovers will be essential for the Bulls to be successful. The series might be decided on how well the Bulls can protect the three point line as over the same two month period the Cavs shot as many threes as the Houston Rockets and are sinking them at 39%. Regardless of the outcome this should be an incredibly entertaining series asChicago playoff games are always epic. Home court advantage should carry Cleveland through.
Keys To Success: Kevin Love has to be effective in stretching out and punishing Chicago’s size. Forcing them to adjust their lineup instead of allowing them to play Gasol and Noah at the same time. Irving should be aggressive in attacking his defender instead of settling for threes unless he’s already rolling.
Cavaliers 4–3
Eastern Conference Finals: Atlanta
The Atlanta Hawks should have no problem dispatching their first round opponent and will face either Toronto or Washington in the second round. Both the Raptors and Wizards have struggled to find consistency in the second half of the season so odds are the Hawks will advance.
The Hawks have a relatively small front court but surprisingly don’t surrender as many points in the paint as one would expect.Their biggest weakness is allowing offensive rebounds and second chance points. Horford and Millsap’s focus to keep Mozgov and Thompson off the glass will be essential as Cleveland’s offence has been so lethal in the latter part of the season that you can’t allow them extra possessions. Since the All Star break Atlanta allows opponents to grab an offensive board on 28% of available rebounds, one of the worst rates in the league. Cleveland grabs 40% of available offensive rebounds in the last 5 minutes of games so late game offensive rebounds granting additional possessions could turn out to be a defining factor of the series. Kevin Love will be challenged on the defensive end by Millsap’s crafty post moves and perimeter quickness. Love’s ability to handle Millsap on the glass and rotate to contest shooters will determine if he can stay on the floor.
Atlanta sets more off-ball screens than any of Cleveland’s previous opponents so sharp defensive rotations to close out on perimeter shooters are of utmost importance. DeMarre Carroll is one of the better defenders in the league to guard James with his size and quickness and Mike Scott could help some off the bench. Mozgov is by far the biggest player on either roster and Atlanta will go small to force him into uncomfortable situations. Timofey will have trouble with Horford on the perimeter but his presence and rebounding might outweigh his negatives if he can stay out of foul trouble. Cleveland’s wide array of wing defenders will help them in the pick and roll heavy offense of Atlanta. Shawn Marion has gone forgotten with injury for most of the season but if healthy he could prove to be a valuable asset in this series with his defensive versatility. Shumpert seems almost like a smaller, younger Marion and will spend most of this series chasing Kyle Korver around screens.
LeBron James is the most important player in this series and he has to play like it if Cleveland wants to come out alive. Atlanta is a skilled and versatile team but they lack the superstar talent of Irving or James to just take over a game when the stakes are at their highest. James must impose his will on the game early to set the tone for the series but if the game is on the line Irving has proven that he wants the ball in his hands and he knows what to do with it.
Key to Success: Force Atlanta to adapt to you instead of adjusting to their smaller lineups. Use defensive rotations and communication to close out on three point shooters and limit Teague’s dribble penetration.
Cavaliers 4–3
As captivating as the Western Conference playoffs will be try not to forget about the East. Don’t assume that the Cavaliers will make it through unscathed, it won’t be as easy as it seems. James better grab the Bulls by their horns.
Cavalier’s Path to Eastern Conference Finals — Can’t Run From the Bulls
In the NBA playoffs there is nowhere to run unlike Pamplona’s annual festivities. You are trapped playing your opponent until you are victorious four times. During the regular season you can play a run and gun style but in the postseason defence gains intensity and every player grips the ball a bit tighter. The Cavaliers can’t overlook the first two rounds if they plan on making it to where everyone expects them to be, the Eastern Conference Finals squaring off against the Atlanta Hawks.
Five years ago I never thought I would be saying this. The Cleveland Cavaliers management group has done an excellent job surrounding LeBron James with the talent he needs to be successful. Credit goes to General Manager David Griffin because we all know Dan Gilbert could not have made these intelligent decisions. If they had acted this adeptly the first time around perhaps James would never have left.
The Cavs might have slightly overpaid for Timofey Mozgov but the 28 year old Russian has expertly filled the role laid out for him. Since acquiring Timofey Cleveland’s opponents have gone from shooting 48% to 44% and score 3 less in points in the paint per game. While improved play from the rest of the team also influenced these numbers, Mozgov has had a definite impact. J.R. Smith was more concerned with “turning up” than turnovers during his time spent in New York and Cleveland isn't the most intriguing place in the world to put it mildly.This allowed him to prosper in an environment where his teammates hold him accountable for his actions. Iman Shumpert’s skill set hasn't been showcased thus far but when playoff time rolls around he will shine guarding the opposition’s elite perimeter players.
Now that the Cavaliers have figured out their identity it should be smooth sailing through the terrible East to the Conference Finals, right? The race for the final playoff spots in the Eastern conference is tight and the Cavaliers will face one of Indiana, Miami, Charlotte or Boston in the first round.
Charlotte
Charlotte would be the most difficult first round match up with quality offensive guard play from Kemba Walker and Mo Williams. Kyrie should have a field day on Walker who gambles and reaches consistently. Defensively Charlotte has solid perimeter defenders in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Gerald Henderson that can attempt to guard James. Al Jefferson would be the most troublesome Hornet as he has a plethora of moves on the block and the jumper to stretch out Mozgov. Charlotte has a relatively low pace of 93 possessions per 48 minutes and struggles shooting the three pointer which translates into a stagnant half court offense. Luckily for Cleveland this is the most unlikely first-round series as Boston and Miami would have to fall off drastically.
Key to Success: Double team Al Jefferson to make someone else beat you. Hornets are weak at power forward so let Kevin Love operate in the paint.
Cavaliers 4–1 with a few close gritty games.
Miami
Most fans are hoping for a first round reunion between LeBron James and the Miami Heat. If Chris Bosh was healthy this series would be much more interesting but unfortunately he is sidelined with blood clots in his lungs. Goran Dragic has helped Miami’s offensive execution by speeding up the pace of their game. Gaining the team five more possessions per game and providing easier baskets by getting out in transition. Dragic will have to be aggressive offensively to keep Irving on his heels. That being said Tony Parker gave Irving the business and he still dropped 57 on the Spurs. At this point it’s impossible to place limits on what Irving is capable of. When Irving is allowed to coast defensively it’s much easier for him to get his game going.
Hassan Whiteside should cause problems for the Cavaliers on the offensive glass but his post game isn't polished enough to make a major difference in the series. Hassan has problems with turnovers, foul trouble and is sloppy with his footwork. Luol Deng is the lone quality wing defender left on the roster and has played through nagging injuries for the duration of the season. If you only have one player on your roster remotely capable of keeping up with LeBron James you’re going to have big problems. It will be left upon Dwayne Wade to make this series interesting and over the past few weeks he has looked more and more like his old self. 22 points per game on 46% partnered with timely buckets have kept the Miami heat in the playoff mix.
Key to Success: Attack the basket aggressively against Whiteside to force him into foul trouble as Miami is short on bigs.
Cavaliers 4 -1
Boston
The Boston Celtics are 16–11 in February and March with a better win percentage than the Mavericks, Pelicans, Wizards, Raptors, Suns and Bucks to name a few. In the same time frame the Celtics have allowed 98 points per game and force teams to earn their points by limiting fast break points (11.8 per game) and three pointers (opponents shoot 30.5% and make 6.8 per game). On the offensive end the Celtics struggle as much as they force their opposition to. Boston doesn't score in transition, shoot the three efficiently or score points in the paint. The Celtics still use distance shooting to space the floor as 30% of their attempted field goals are threes but they only convert 31% of them.
As well as the Celtics move the ball they lack the talent to execute down the stretch of games. Sometimes you just need someone to make big plays when your offense isn't flowing and the closest Boston has is Isiah Thomas. Jared Sullinger’s season ending foot injury hurt the Celtics a lot as now they lack a low post-presence despite Brandon Bass’ strong effort. Avery Bradley’s hustle and scrappy defence should challenge Irving and the Celtics have bodies to throw at James like Jae Crowder, Evan Turner or even Gerald Wallace if he could find some playing time. Despite all this Boston just isn’t built to be a playoff team regardless of how coach Brad Stevens is making it work. Danny Ainge is probably upset that Stevens is doing such an outstanding job as he would rather have a lottery pick than a first round exit.
Key to Success: Get Love engaged to prepare for future opponents because there is no power forward on Boston who can guard Love.
Cavaliers 4–0
Round 2: Chicago
After breezing through the first round these two titans should collide for a second round battle that will go the distance. The Bulls have all the tools to compete against Cleveland, a strong front court and athletic wing defenders. Jimmy Butler and Tony Snell have the quickness to stay with LeBron but lack the size to battle with him in the paint. If James wants to be successful in this series he will have to revert to his Miami days and play in the post. This leaves Kevin Love the odd man out as when LeBron is posting up you want to play Mozgov at the 5 and then perimeter players to space out the floor. The Cavaliers should try to utilize Love when James is resting as then they can run the offence through Kevin in the high post. This way when LeBron returns to the game Kevin has warmed up and will shoot the ball better when he attempts to space things out for LeBron and Irving.
Irving will be the defining factor in this series as the Bulls don’t have a defensive point guard to match up with him. In the past Thibadeau always managed to a find a backup point guard ready to step their game up. He got the best out of Nate Robinson, D.J. Augustine or even John Lucas III but this year seems a bit different. Aaron Brooks has played well this season off the bench but he isn't consistent and is a liability defensively. Kirk Hinrich makes up for his lack of athleticism with defensive intensity and intelligence but basketball IQ can’t help you against Kyrie Irving’s quickness and handle. Hinrich has also shot the ball atrociously, 37% from the field is the lowest of his career. E’Twaun Moore has had moments during March but its unclear if he can supplant Brooks or Hinrich in the rotation. If Derrick Rose doesn’t return as his normal self, or if he endures another tragic injury, the Bulls will have to pick their poison.
Chicago’s redeeming factor is their deep frontcourt rotation. Joakim Noah always takes his intensity to another level in the postseason and now he is paired with the innately skilled Pau Gasol instead of inconsistent Carlos Boozer. Gasol is having one of the best seasons of his career and is rebounding the basketball better than ever. Nikola Mirotic has exploded in March averaging 31 minutes per game to go along with 20 points and nearly 8 rebounds. Nikola can stretch the floor against larger opponents as he is an effective long range shooter with a good handle. Against undersized players Mirotic has the post moves to take advantage of the situation. Accompanying Mirotic is Taj Gibson who could also have a starting position on many NBA teams. Taj is a tenacious defender and rebounder and should do an excellent job battling with Tristan Thompson who the Cavaliers rely on for offensive rebounds and second chance points.
The Bulls similar to the Celtics don’t shoot the three well and play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. Surprisingly in February and March Chicago has struggled to score points in the paint but this should change come playoff time. They average merely 7.8 fast break points per game so offensive efficiency and preventing turnovers will be essential for the Bulls to be successful. The series might be decided on how well the Bulls can protect the three point line as over the same two month period the Cavs shot as many threes as the Houston Rockets and are sinking them at 39%. Regardless of the outcome this should be an incredibly entertaining series asChicago playoff games are always epic. Home court advantage should carry Cleveland through.
Keys To Success: Kevin Love has to be effective in stretching out and punishing Chicago’s size. Forcing them to adjust their lineup instead of allowing them to play Gasol and Noah at the same time. Irving should be aggressive in attacking his defender instead of settling for threes unless he’s already rolling.
Cavaliers 4–3
Eastern Conference Finals: Atlanta
The Atlanta Hawks should have no problem dispatching their first round opponent and will face either Toronto or Washington in the second round. Both the Raptors and Wizards have struggled to find consistency in the second half of the season so odds are the Hawks will advance.
The Hawks have a relatively small front court but surprisingly don’t surrender as many points in the paint as one would expect.Their biggest weakness is allowing offensive rebounds and second chance points. Horford and Millsap’s focus to keep Mozgov and Thompson off the glass will be essential as Cleveland’s offence has been so lethal in the latter part of the season that you can’t allow them extra possessions. Since the All Star break Atlanta allows opponents to grab an offensive board on 28% of available rebounds, one of the worst rates in the league. Cleveland grabs 40% of available offensive rebounds in the last 5 minutes of games so late game offensive rebounds granting additional possessions could turn out to be a defining factor of the series. Kevin Love will be challenged on the defensive end by Millsap’s crafty post moves and perimeter quickness. Love’s ability to handle Millsap on the glass and rotate to contest shooters will determine if he can stay on the floor.
Atlanta sets more off-ball screens than any of Cleveland’s previous opponents so sharp defensive rotations to close out on perimeter shooters are of utmost importance. DeMarre Carroll is one of the better defenders in the league to guard James with his size and quickness and Mike Scott could help some off the bench. Mozgov is by far the biggest player on either roster and Atlanta will go small to force him into uncomfortable situations. Timofey will have trouble with Horford on the perimeter but his presence and rebounding might outweigh his negatives if he can stay out of foul trouble. Cleveland’s wide array of wing defenders will help them in the pick and roll heavy offense of Atlanta. Shawn Marion has gone forgotten with injury for most of the season but if healthy he could prove to be a valuable asset in this series with his defensive versatility. Shumpert seems almost like a smaller, younger Marion and will spend most of this series chasing Kyle Korver around screens.
LeBron James is the most important player in this series and he has to play like it if Cleveland wants to come out alive. Atlanta is a skilled and versatile team but they lack the superstar talent of Irving or James to just take over a game when the stakes are at their highest. James must impose his will on the game early to set the tone for the series but if the game is on the line Irving has proven that he wants the ball in his hands and he knows what to do with it.
Key to Success: Force Atlanta to adapt to you instead of adjusting to their smaller lineups. Use defensive rotations and communication to close out on three point shooters and limit Teague’s dribble penetration.
Cavaliers 4–3
As captivating as the Western Conference playoffs will be try not to forget about the East. Don’t assume that the Cavaliers will make it through unscathed, it won’t be as easy as it seems. James better grab the Bulls by their horns.
