JonFromVA wrote:If someone wants to project the league cap and the Cavs commitments to our core out over the next 5 years or so, I'd be glad to entertain a theory that paying everyone $25/mil plus is feasible ... but short of that I'm going to keep on believing we need a mix of players at different salary levels to have a chance at keeping this core together.
So that's why I feel Sexton at $20M gives us some flexibility, but if he's at $25M? My thought is someone else had better be willing to take $5M less.
Also keep in the max extension varies ... for instance, Luka's supermax is going to average $41.4M
His first bump up will put him at $35.7M in 2022/2023 when the cap is expected to be $119M, or 30% of the cap.
Ayton on the other hand is eligible for $33.6M average and could get $28 in 2022/2023 or 23.5% of the cap.
The difference is, teams like Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix can at least see how they can win games and contend with Luka, Trae, and Deandre. We're still in the dark with our core and the bills are coming due.
I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million
For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358
Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.
If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.
I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.
For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.
If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);
That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.
For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.
With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.
In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.
A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.
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