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Around the NBA

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JonFromVA
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#501 » by JonFromVA » Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:47 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:If someone wants to project the league cap and the Cavs commitments to our core out over the next 5 years or so, I'd be glad to entertain a theory that paying everyone $25/mil plus is feasible ... but short of that I'm going to keep on believing we need a mix of players at different salary levels to have a chance at keeping this core together.

So that's why I feel Sexton at $20M gives us some flexibility, but if he's at $25M? My thought is someone else had better be willing to take $5M less.

Also keep in the max extension varies ... for instance, Luka's supermax is going to average $41.4M

His first bump up will put him at $35.7M in 2022/2023 when the cap is expected to be $119M, or 30% of the cap.

Ayton on the other hand is eligible for $33.6M average and could get $28 in 2022/2023 or 23.5% of the cap.

The difference is, teams like Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix can at least see how they can win games and contend with Luka, Trae, and Deandre. We're still in the dark with our core and the bills are coming due.
I mean we can just see what Sexton does in year 4 now that it's been made pretty clear that the league has priced in his *areas for improvement.*


It may very well come to that, but I'd still rather get him amicably signed to a tradable deal that also gives us flexibility in signing our other young players.

We may disagree on Collin's potential and value, but I expect the Cavs organization which has worked with him for the past 3 seasons to have a pretty solid idea and they should act on that knowledge sooner rather than later and stop floundering with decisions.

If they're happy to keep him and just feel he's asking too much, then by all means they should stay the course and worst case match whatever he gets as a restricted free agent; but other than that ... there are costs to holding on to a player you don't really want, especially for a team that outright stinks at building up trade value.

For instance, the Cavs actually can sign free-agents, but we need to be able to offer something a more desirable team cannot like more $$$ or starting minutes. It would have been a lot easier to sign a free-agent SF if we had an open starting spot for a SF.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#502 » by JonFromVA » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:06 pm

KuruptedCav wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:If someone wants to project the league cap and the Cavs commitments to our core out over the next 5 years or so, I'd be glad to entertain a theory that paying everyone $25/mil plus is feasible ... but short of that I'm going to keep on believing we need a mix of players at different salary levels to have a chance at keeping this core together.

So that's why I feel Sexton at $20M gives us some flexibility, but if he's at $25M? My thought is someone else had better be willing to take $5M less.

Also keep in the max extension varies ... for instance, Luka's supermax is going to average $41.4M

His first bump up will put him at $35.7M in 2022/2023 when the cap is expected to be $119M, or 30% of the cap.

Ayton on the other hand is eligible for $33.6M average and could get $28 in 2022/2023 or 23.5% of the cap.

The difference is, teams like Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix can at least see how they can win games and contend with Luka, Trae, and Deandre. We're still in the dark with our core and the bills are coming due.

I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million

For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358

Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.

If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.

I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.

For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.

If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);

That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.

For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.

With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.

In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.

A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.


And you're probably light on paying Nance just $10M ... but your stab certainly raises huge concerns for me. It would be one thing if this group was already contending for championships, but we really don't know what we've got. I wouldn't sign off on a plan that would have us needing to exceed the luxury tax just to keep Isaac past his rookie deal and then Mobley (if we're lucky) may be getting the supermax on top of that? Whoa ...

The Hawks are certainly a team to watch. The fact they're already looking in to trades for Cam Reddish is likely a pre-emptive move to stave off some of their future cap problems.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#503 » by toooskies » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:27 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
KuruptedCav wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:If someone wants to project the league cap and the Cavs commitments to our core out over the next 5 years or so, I'd be glad to entertain a theory that paying everyone $25/mil plus is feasible ... but short of that I'm going to keep on believing we need a mix of players at different salary levels to have a chance at keeping this core together.

So that's why I feel Sexton at $20M gives us some flexibility, but if he's at $25M? My thought is someone else had better be willing to take $5M less.

Also keep in the max extension varies ... for instance, Luka's supermax is going to average $41.4M

His first bump up will put him at $35.7M in 2022/2023 when the cap is expected to be $119M, or 30% of the cap.

Ayton on the other hand is eligible for $33.6M average and could get $28 in 2022/2023 or 23.5% of the cap.

The difference is, teams like Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix can at least see how they can win games and contend with Luka, Trae, and Deandre. We're still in the dark with our core and the bills are coming due.

I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million

For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358

Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.

If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.

I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.

For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.

If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);

That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.

For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.

With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.

In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.

A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.


And you're probably light on paying Nance just $10M ... but your stab certainly raises huge concerns for me. It would be one thing if this group was already contending for championships, but we really don't know what we've got. I wouldn't sign off on a plan that would have us needing to exceed the luxury tax just to keep Isaac past his rookie deal and then Mobley (if we're lucky) may be getting the supermax on top of that? Whoa ...

The Hawks are certainly a team to watch. The fact they're already looking in to trades for Cam Reddish is likely a pre-emptive move to stave off some of their future cap problems.

I highly doubt that the Cavs simultaneously keep all their young guys long-term, pay them all above-market deals despite them being RFAs, keep getting lottery picks in the draft, and not see significant team development in the process.

If the Cavs don't start seeing on-court progress (i.e. 33+ wins) by next year they probably part with one of Garland or Sexton, whether that's a trade, S&T, or just letting Sexton walk. It isn't as if we should expect further regression from anybody from where we were last year.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#504 » by JonFromVA » Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:12 pm

toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
KuruptedCav wrote:I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million

For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358

Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.

If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.

I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.

For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.

If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);

That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.

For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.

With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.

In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.

A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.


And you're probably light on paying Nance just $10M ... but your stab certainly raises huge concerns for me. It would be one thing if this group was already contending for championships, but we really don't know what we've got. I wouldn't sign off on a plan that would have us needing to exceed the luxury tax just to keep Isaac past his rookie deal and then Mobley (if we're lucky) may be getting the supermax on top of that? Whoa ...

The Hawks are certainly a team to watch. The fact they're already looking in to trades for Cam Reddish is likely a pre-emptive move to stave off some of their future cap problems.

I highly doubt that the Cavs simultaneously keep all their young guys long-term, pay them all above-market deals despite them being RFAs, keep getting lottery picks in the draft, and not see significant team development in the process.

If the Cavs don't start seeing on-court progress (i.e. 33+ wins) by next year they probably part with one of Garland or Sexton, whether that's a trade, S&T, or just letting Sexton walk. It isn't as if we should expect further regression from anybody from where we were last year.


Sure, change is inevitable, I just think maintaining our flexibility is important or we'll likely pay for it down the line.

So my hope is the Cavs are thinking down the line towards what our lottery picks will end up getting and plan accordingly. Maybe one of them makes a little more and another little less than we think ... not a problem, but I really don't think we can just hand out max or near max contracts to all of them and cross our fingers.

Certainly not after drafting Mobley, who may very well develop slowly but we hope will earn a max or best case a supermax.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#505 » by toooskies » Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:06 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
And you're probably light on paying Nance just $10M ... but your stab certainly raises huge concerns for me. It would be one thing if this group was already contending for championships, but we really don't know what we've got. I wouldn't sign off on a plan that would have us needing to exceed the luxury tax just to keep Isaac past his rookie deal and then Mobley (if we're lucky) may be getting the supermax on top of that? Whoa ...

The Hawks are certainly a team to watch. The fact they're already looking in to trades for Cam Reddish is likely a pre-emptive move to stave off some of their future cap problems.

I highly doubt that the Cavs simultaneously keep all their young guys long-term, pay them all above-market deals despite them being RFAs, keep getting lottery picks in the draft, and not see significant team development in the process.

If the Cavs don't start seeing on-court progress (i.e. 33+ wins) by next year they probably part with one of Garland or Sexton, whether that's a trade, S&T, or just letting Sexton walk. It isn't as if we should expect further regression from anybody from where we were last year.


Sure, change is inevitable, I just think maintaining our flexibility is important or we'll likely pay for it down the line.

So my hope is the Cavs are thinking down the line towards what our lottery picks will end up getting and plan accordingly. Maybe one of them makes a little more and another little less than we think ... not a problem, but I really don't think we can just hand out max or near max contracts to all of them and cross our fingers.

Certainly not after drafting Mobley, who may very well develop slowly but we hope will earn a max or best case a supermax.

I don't think anyone believes we're going to hand out max contracts to everyone on a bad team, though. The worry was that Allen would get $25m a year or more-- nope, well below that. And on a 5-year deal, that might be a bargain when the MLE is ~$12m at the end.

Sexton is at risk of being overpaid given how scoring-heavy his game is, but given there isn't a trade market for him, there's little reason to believe there will be a RFA market either. The Cavs just need to help him realize that.

Garland, right now, projects as a better-than-average starting PG. But that's in, like, the Brogdon range ($21.25m/year) and well below a max. With inflation maybe that hits $25m a year?

It's too early to even say on Okoro, but as long as his offense is a liability, he's not going to get more than $10-15m a year.

The only way I'm worried about cap space is if the team starts looking like the Durant/Westbrook/Harden OKC teams. And then I'm fine w/ it, because if those guys all develop, we're a relatively complete team-- except we might flip Sexton/Garland for better fit at the wing.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#506 » by Revenged25 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:20 pm

KuruptedCav wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:If someone wants to project the league cap and the Cavs commitments to our core out over the next 5 years or so, I'd be glad to entertain a theory that paying everyone $25/mil plus is feasible ... but short of that I'm going to keep on believing we need a mix of players at different salary levels to have a chance at keeping this core together.

So that's why I feel Sexton at $20M gives us some flexibility, but if he's at $25M? My thought is someone else had better be willing to take $5M less.

Also keep in the max extension varies ... for instance, Luka's supermax is going to average $41.4M

His first bump up will put him at $35.7M in 2022/2023 when the cap is expected to be $119M, or 30% of the cap.

Ayton on the other hand is eligible for $33.6M average and could get $28 in 2022/2023 or 23.5% of the cap.

The difference is, teams like Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix can at least see how they can win games and contend with Luka, Trae, and Deandre. We're still in the dark with our core and the bills are coming due.

I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million

For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358

Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.

If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.

I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.

For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.

If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);

That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.

For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.

With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.

In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.

A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app


You won't have to worry about extending Garland at the max.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#507 » by JonFromVA » Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:11 pm

toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:I highly doubt that the Cavs simultaneously keep all their young guys long-term, pay them all above-market deals despite them being RFAs, keep getting lottery picks in the draft, and not see significant team development in the process.

If the Cavs don't start seeing on-court progress (i.e. 33+ wins) by next year they probably part with one of Garland or Sexton, whether that's a trade, S&T, or just letting Sexton walk. It isn't as if we should expect further regression from anybody from where we were last year.


Sure, change is inevitable, I just think maintaining our flexibility is important or we'll likely pay for it down the line.

So my hope is the Cavs are thinking down the line towards what our lottery picks will end up getting and plan accordingly. Maybe one of them makes a little more and another little less than we think ... not a problem, but I really don't think we can just hand out max or near max contracts to all of them and cross our fingers.

Certainly not after drafting Mobley, who may very well develop slowly but we hope will earn a max or best case a supermax.

I don't think anyone believes we're going to hand out max contracts to everyone on a bad team, though. The worry was that Allen would get $25m a year or more-- nope, well below that. And on a 5-year deal, that might be a bargain when the MLE is ~$12m at the end.

Sexton is at risk of being overpaid given how scoring-heavy his game is, but given there isn't a trade market for him, there's little reason to believe there will be a RFA market either. The Cavs just need to help him realize that.

Garland, right now, projects as a better-than-average starting PG. But that's in, like, the Brogdon range ($21.25m/year) and well below a max. With inflation maybe that hits $25m a year?

It's too early to even say on Okoro, but as long as his offense is a liability, he's not going to get more than $10-15m a year.

The only way I'm worried about cap space is if the team starts looking like the Durant/Westbrook/Harden OKC teams. And then I'm fine w/ it, because if those guys all develop, we're a relatively complete team-- except we might flip Sexton/Garland for better fit at the wing.


Yep, I'd like to see these salaries slot in around levels like you've described. Of course varying somewhat based on performance/market. On the flip side, we want to avoid a Harden situation where we've slotted in a player's salary so inflexibly that we end up losing the asset for 10 cents on the dollar.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#508 » by JonFromVA » Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:17 pm

Revenged25 wrote:
KuruptedCav wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:If someone wants to project the league cap and the Cavs commitments to our core out over the next 5 years or so, I'd be glad to entertain a theory that paying everyone $25/mil plus is feasible ... but short of that I'm going to keep on believing we need a mix of players at different salary levels to have a chance at keeping this core together.

So that's why I feel Sexton at $20M gives us some flexibility, but if he's at $25M? My thought is someone else had better be willing to take $5M less.

Also keep in the max extension varies ... for instance, Luka's supermax is going to average $41.4M

His first bump up will put him at $35.7M in 2022/2023 when the cap is expected to be $119M, or 30% of the cap.

Ayton on the other hand is eligible for $33.6M average and could get $28 in 2022/2023 or 23.5% of the cap.

The difference is, teams like Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix can at least see how they can win games and contend with Luka, Trae, and Deandre. We're still in the dark with our core and the bills are coming due.

I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million

For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358

Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.

If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.

I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.

For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.

If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);

That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.

For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.

With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.

In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.

A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.


You won't have to worry about extending Garland at the max.


Be sure to let Garland and Rich Paul know that.

He's already at 17 & 6 and if he picks up where he left off in April, he'll be averaging at least 20 & 7 this upcoming season and well on his way to a max deal.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#509 » by KuruptedCav » Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:32 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
KuruptedCav wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:If someone wants to project the league cap and the Cavs commitments to our core out over the next 5 years or so, I'd be glad to entertain a theory that paying everyone $25/mil plus is feasible ... but short of that I'm going to keep on believing we need a mix of players at different salary levels to have a chance at keeping this core together.

So that's why I feel Sexton at $20M gives us some flexibility, but if he's at $25M? My thought is someone else had better be willing to take $5M less.

Also keep in the max extension varies ... for instance, Luka's supermax is going to average $41.4M

His first bump up will put him at $35.7M in 2022/2023 when the cap is expected to be $119M, or 30% of the cap.

Ayton on the other hand is eligible for $33.6M average and could get $28 in 2022/2023 or 23.5% of the cap.

The difference is, teams like Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix can at least see how they can win games and contend with Luka, Trae, and Deandre. We're still in the dark with our core and the bills are coming due.

I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million

For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358

Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.

If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.

I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.

For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.

If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);

That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.

For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.

With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.

In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.

A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.


And you're probably light on paying Nance just $10M ... but your stab certainly raises huge concerns for me. It would be one thing if this group was already contending for championships, but we really don't know what we've got. I wouldn't sign off on a plan that would have us needing to exceed the luxury tax just to keep Isaac past his rookie deal and then Mobley (if we're lucky) may be getting the supermax on top of that? Whoa ...

The Hawks are certainly a team to watch. The fact they're already looking in to trades for Cam Reddish is likely a pre-emptive move to stave off some of their future cap problems.

My thought is that the Cavs will never be far enough under the cap, regardless of the Sexton decision, to use cap space as a meaningful asset; simply because of the volume of picks and salaries. And that it’s better to leverage Gilbert’s money in the $25 million gap between cap and tax than to try to leverage cap as an asset while trying to build a winner.


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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#510 » by KuruptedCav » Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:33 pm

KuruptedCav wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
KuruptedCav wrote:I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million

For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358

Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.

If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.

I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.

For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.

If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);

That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.

For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.

With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.

In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.

A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.


And you're probably light on paying Nance just $10M ... but your stab certainly raises huge concerns for me. It would be one thing if this group was already contending for championships, but we really don't know what we've got. I wouldn't sign off on a plan that would have us needing to exceed the luxury tax just to keep Isaac past his rookie deal and then Mobley (if we're lucky) may be getting the supermax on top of that? Whoa ...

The Hawks are certainly a team to watch. The fact they're already looking in to trades for Cam Reddish is likely a pre-emptive move to stave off some of their future cap problems.

My thought is that the Cavs will never be far enough under the cap, regardless of the Sexton decision, to use cap space as a meaningful asset; simply because of the volume of picks and salaries. And that it’s better to leverage Gilbert’s money in the $25 million gap between cap and tax than to try to leverage cap as an asset while trying to build a winner.


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But under no circumstances should they cross into the tax without the team showing they can win because the reduced MLE and repeater penalties and hard-cap potential are actual barriers to flexibility.


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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#511 » by Revenged25 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:08 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
Revenged25 wrote:
KuruptedCav wrote:I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million

For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358

Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.

If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.

I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.

For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.

If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);

That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.

For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.

With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.

In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.

A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.


You won't have to worry about extending Garland at the max.


Be sure to let Garland and Rich Paul know that.

He's already at 17 & 6 and if he picks up where he left off in April, he'll be averaging at least 20 & 7 this upcoming season and well on his way to a max deal.


I'll believe it when I see it.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#512 » by JonFromVA » Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:07 am

KuruptedCav wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
KuruptedCav wrote:I’ll do three years, beyond gets highly speculative with assumptions we could debate for days.
2022 Cap: $119million/Lux: $145million
2023 Cap: $124million/Lux: $153million
2024 Cap: $129million/Lux: $160million

For 2022: for 10 players: Love, Allen, Nance Jr., Osman, Mobley, Garland, Windler, Wade, Kabengele, Stevens the Cavs are at $100,079358

Add in the draft pick ($5 million, they will still be bad) and NTMLE $10 million and they are $4 million under the cap.

If they add Sexton at $25million, and two minimum roster players, that brings the total to $143million; $24 million over the cap and $2 million under the luxury tax.

I assume Sexton 4/$100 at $25/yr; NTMLE player signs 3 years and $32 million.

For 2023/24: for 7 players Allen, Mobley Okoro, Sexton, Stevens, 2022 FRP, 2022 NTMLE $80,484,236.

If Garland is extended at Maximum, $31 million, 2023 Draft Pick (assuming still bad $5mil), NTMLE ($10mil);

That’s 10 players for $126,484,236
Extend Nance at $10mil/yr (2-3 years), BAE @ $3.918,600 brings them to $140,402,836 for the top-12 roster spots. $16 million over the cap and $13 million below the Luxury tax.

For 2024/25: 10 players,Allen, Garland, Sexton, Mobley, Nance Jr., 2022 FRP, 2023 FRP, 2022 NTMLE, 2023 NTMLE, account for $132,112,809. Add the 2024 FRP for $136 mil for 10 players.

With $24 million below the tax, the question becomes whether to sign a NTMLE player and extend Okoro which likely pushes them into the Luxury tax; or sign Okor and use part of the MLE to stay under the cap on the top-13; filling the roster with minimum players.

In 2025 The Allen decision comes due, and Sexton is a $25 million expiring (if Okoro earns his own max and Sexton doesn’t develop) as Mobley’s extension comes due.

A lot of assumptions, so I went with MLE values and top-10 draft pick expenses to be conservative.


And you're probably light on paying Nance just $10M ... but your stab certainly raises huge concerns for me. It would be one thing if this group was already contending for championships, but we really don't know what we've got. I wouldn't sign off on a plan that would have us needing to exceed the luxury tax just to keep Isaac past his rookie deal and then Mobley (if we're lucky) may be getting the supermax on top of that? Whoa ...

The Hawks are certainly a team to watch. The fact they're already looking in to trades for Cam Reddish is likely a pre-emptive move to stave off some of their future cap problems.

My thought is that the Cavs will never be far enough under the cap, regardless of the Sexton decision, to use cap space as a meaningful asset; simply because of the volume of picks and salaries. And that it’s better to leverage Gilbert’s money in the $25 million gap between cap and tax than to try to leverage cap as an asset while trying to build a winner.


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If they're worth it? Sure, but we're still figuring that part out and if we overpay they'll be that much harder to trade to fix fit, consolidate assets, avoid the repeater tax, etc, etc.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#513 » by JonFromVA » Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:23 am

Revenged25 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Revenged25 wrote:
You won't have to worry about extending Garland at the max.


Be sure to let Garland and Rich Paul know that.

He's already at 17 & 6 and if he picks up where he left off in April, he'll be averaging at least 20 & 7 this upcoming season and well on his way to a max deal.


I'll believe it when I see it.


You did and he pulled it off over the span of a month with some pretty questionable lineups.

De'Aaron Fox got maxxed after a pretty similar progression.

For Garland not to get there, he'd have to get hurt or regress. Maybe start playing selfishly out of the blue.

This is the good part of drafting a physically immature 19yr old ... you should expect pretty big improvements from year to year not just refinements.

No guarantees ... but this is what we're waiting to see; why we've put up with all this losing. Realizing potential.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#514 » by jbk1234 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:14 am

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:If someone wants to project the league cap and the Cavs commitments to our core out over the next 5 years or so, I'd be glad to entertain a theory that paying everyone $25/mil plus is feasible ... but short of that I'm going to keep on believing we need a mix of players at different salary levels to have a chance at keeping this core together.

So that's why I feel Sexton at $20M gives us some flexibility, but if he's at $25M? My thought is someone else had better be willing to take $5M less.

Also keep in the max extension varies ... for instance, Luka's supermax is going to average $41.4M

His first bump up will put him at $35.7M in 2022/2023 when the cap is expected to be $119M, or 30% of the cap.

Ayton on the other hand is eligible for $33.6M average and could get $28 in 2022/2023 or 23.5% of the cap.

The difference is, teams like Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix can at least see how they can win games and contend with Luka, Trae, and Deandre. We're still in the dark with our core and the bills are coming due.
I mean we can just see what Sexton does in year 4 now that it's been made pretty clear that the league has priced in his *areas for improvement.*


It may very well come to that, but I'd still rather get him amicably signed to a tradable deal that also gives us flexibility in signing our other young players.

We may disagree on Collin's potential and value, but I expect the Cavs organization which has worked with him for the past 3 seasons to have a pretty solid idea and they should act on that knowledge sooner rather than later and stop floundering with decisions.

If they're happy to keep him and just feel he's asking too much, then by all means they should stay the course and worst case match whatever he gets as a restricted free agent; but other than that ... there are costs to holding on to a player you don't really want, especially for a team that outright stinks at building up trade value.

For instance, the Cavs actually can sign free-agents, but we need to be able to offer something a more desirable team cannot like more $$$ or starting minutes. It would have been a lot easier to sign a free-agent SF if we had an open starting spot for a SF.
When they tried to trade him and received underwhelming offers didn't they act on a decision?

You're suggesting paying him because they didn't like the offers. Not to put too fine a point on it, but a year ago you were trying to tell me Drummond on a $20M per deal would be great for the Cavs.

Look, I see zero issues with telling Sexton what his flaws are and telling him they need to see improvement before paying him. If he bucks at that, you have your answer.

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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#515 » by JonFromVA » Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:47 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:I mean we can just see what Sexton does in year 4 now that it's been made pretty clear that the league has priced in his *areas for improvement.*


It may very well come to that, but I'd still rather get him amicably signed to a tradable deal that also gives us flexibility in signing our other young players.

We may disagree on Collin's potential and value, but I expect the Cavs organization which has worked with him for the past 3 seasons to have a pretty solid idea and they should act on that knowledge sooner rather than later and stop floundering with decisions.

If they're happy to keep him and just feel he's asking too much, then by all means they should stay the course and worst case match whatever he gets as a restricted free agent; but other than that ... there are costs to holding on to a player you don't really want, especially for a team that outright stinks at building up trade value.

For instance, the Cavs actually can sign free-agents, but we need to be able to offer something a more desirable team cannot like more $$$ or starting minutes. It would have been a lot easier to sign a free-agent SF if we had an open starting spot for a SF.
When they tried to trade him and received underwhelming offers didn't they act on a decision?

You're suggesting paying him because they didn't like the offers. Not to put too fine a point on it, but a year ago you were trying to tell me Drummond on a $20M per deal would be great for the Cavs.

Look, I see zero issues with telling Sexton what his flaws are and telling him they need to see improvement before paying him. If he bucks at that, you have your answer.


The Cavs had better be be able to act on their own evaluation and projection, or Altman and gang should be fired. if you really want to go back and dissect Drummond, I think you'll find my POV then as now isn't so much based on my evaluation of the player's value/worth but an analysis of what the front office seems to be up to and league trends. In other words ... if the Cavs saw Drummond as a starting C, then paying him as much as $20M would not have been a problem.

The Cavs have had even more time to evaluate Collin and should have a good idea of what sort of role they see for him on the team in to the future. If he's nothing more to them then an "asset" then they will shoot for a contract extension that at least sustains his value as an asset, trade him at what they believe is his peak value, or try to work out a S&T when he's a free-agent (at the risk that some GM will call their bluff).

Otoh, if Altman likes this core and thinks Collin can be the long-term starting SG on this team fulfilling the role as primary/secondary scorer, a contract in the $20M range should give us the flexibility to make that happen. Whether that can be higher or should be lower is certainly open to debate, but it's all based around the idea of keeping our core of young players and building something with them. Presumably something Altman would be interested in - given he drafted all of these players.

But that's the interesting thing to me .. not what we think, but trying to decipher what Altman is thinking and what he will do and while the reality is Altman has to manage egos as well. When we traded for Allen I immediately recognized that Altman wasn't giving up on Drummond, rather he was hedging his bet and making sure we'd have a viable starting C at a reasonable ($20M) cost.

Why? Because he continued to run Drummond out there at starting C. If the team was all-in on Allen from the get go, he would have started immediately.

So, how does the hedge work? If someone paid Andre the max as a free-agent, well, that's one less team to pay Allen the max and visa-vera. The problem is Drummond saw right through it and realized the Cavs had no intention to pay him the max and stopped trying to do what the Cavs wanted.

In other words, if the Cavs want to base their evaluation of Collin on how he plays this season, they'd better understand that how they treat him can have an influence on how that plays out. Just like in the case of Drummond, we might not like the version of Collin Sexton trying to prove he's worth a max contract.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#516 » by jbk1234 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:34 pm

Read on Twitter
?s=20
It is highly unlikely that the Cavs will agree with your Kevin Love evaluation for the purpose of a trade.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#517 » by jbk1234 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:37 pm

The NBA is just all kinds of broken right now.
Read on Twitter
?s=20

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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#518 » by JonFromVA » Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:48 pm

I wish Philly all the luck in the world unbreaking the NBA, but Kevin Love isn't worth the fight.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#519 » by Harper4Ferry? » Wed Sep 1, 2021 12:00 am

Simmons would make us a much better team but I'm sure he doesn't actually want to play here and the cost is obviously going to be more than Love/Sexton/2 firsts.
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Re: Around the NBA 

Post#520 » by JonFromVA » Wed Sep 1, 2021 1:09 am

Harper4Ferry? wrote:Simmons would make us a much better team but I'm sure he doesn't actually want to play here and the cost is obviously going to be more than Love/Sexton/2 firsts.


The question is ... what's the best offer that keeps Philly in contention?

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