Re: Cavaliers 2020 Draft Discussion.
Posted: Sun May 24, 2020 12:58 pm
This franchise is so awful at drafting that I EXPECT us to draft Avdija and he turns into a bust in 2-3 years.
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a-French-Fan wrote:About Luka, Deni and young players in Euroleague...
Euroleague is really a hard league for young players. LUKA WAS THE EXCEPTION. When I learnt Ayton was 1st and Luka 3rd, I laught. Maybe Ayton will be a superstar, but what Doncic proved before his draft, it was really great. Maybe the best prospect since LeBron. And he was only 3rd pick.
So do not expect an other prospect with Doncic level before some years, even maybe it will never happen. Doncic hadto learn a new culture for his rookie season, and for his second he played already like a MVP.
In most of Euroleague rosters, there is no minutes for young players:
1) competition is really tough for playoffs
2) experience is needed for playoffs
3) low teams are not sure to stay in Euroleague, so even with the worst record you have to struggle for wins, there is no tanking.
Look Bolmaro's situation. He played really few minutes. But who must go to the bench if you want him to play? Adam Hanga (former best euroleague defensive player)? Alex Abrines (really a good players even if he "didnt feel good" with Thunder)? ... Maybe Bolmaro is the Next Ginobili, but Ginobili was 23 when he played Euroleague with Virtus, and had already played to years in Italy before.
Barcelona have to win Euroleague again, they spent a lot last summer, there is no minutes to give to Bolmaro for his development.
Now, have a look on Pokusevski. His team badly started the season, and before Covid Olympiakos was struggling for play-off. So, sure he is a real prospect, but giving him minutes into Euroleague couldn't be the priority.
And finally Deni ... He average 14 minutes a game in Euroleague, in a team that could create a big surprise. Indeed, while Fener, Pana and Olympiakos had not qualified yet, Maccabi was 5th and already qualified. And Dani contributed to this. So appreciate the performance, instead of thinking "poor stats". Every game does account and is here. Think about Ball who went to NBL in a weak team to show his offensive skills, but who would not play a minute in Maccabi with such a defense.Or think about for Killian Hayes, expected as a top 5: he choose a low eurocup team after a bad season in Jeep Elite, but did not try to join a euroleague roster.
SO ... DANI IS NOT LUKA, BUT HE REALLY DID GREAT THINGS THIS YEAR AND DESERVE TO BE DRAFTED HIGH.
JonFromVA wrote:a-French-Fan wrote:About Luka, Deni and young players in Euroleague...
Euroleague is really a hard league for young players. LUKA WAS THE EXCEPTION. When I learnt Ayton was 1st and Luka 3rd, I laught. Maybe Ayton will be a superstar, but what Doncic proved before his draft, it was really great. Maybe the best prospect since LeBron. And he was only 3rd pick.
So do not expect an other prospect with Doncic level before some years, even maybe it will never happen. Doncic hadto learn a new culture for his rookie season, and for his second he played already like a MVP.
In most of Euroleague rosters, there is no minutes for young players:
1) competition is really tough for playoffs
2) experience is needed for playoffs
3) low teams are not sure to stay in Euroleague, so even with the worst record you have to struggle for wins, there is no tanking.
Look Bolmaro's situation. He played really few minutes. But who must go to the bench if you want him to play? Adam Hanga (former best euroleague defensive player)? Alex Abrines (really a good players even if he "didnt feel good" with Thunder)? ... Maybe Bolmaro is the Next Ginobili, but Ginobili was 23 when he played Euroleague with Virtus, and had already played to years in Italy before.
Barcelona have to win Euroleague again, they spent a lot last summer, there is no minutes to give to Bolmaro for his development.
Now, have a look on Pokusevski. His team badly started the season, and before Covid Olympiakos was struggling for play-off. So, sure he is a real prospect, but giving him minutes into Euroleague couldn't be the priority.
And finally Deni ... He average 14 minutes a game in Euroleague, in a team that could create a big surprise. Indeed, while Fener, Pana and Olympiakos had not qualified yet, Maccabi was 5th and already qualified. And Dani contributed to this. So appreciate the performance, instead of thinking "poor stats". Every game does account and is here. Think about Ball who went to NBL in a weak team to show his offensive skills, but who would not play a minute in Maccabi with such a defense.Or think about for Killian Hayes, expected as a top 5: he choose a low eurocup team after a bad season in Jeep Elite, but did not try to join a euroleague roster.
SO ... DANI IS NOT LUKA, BUT HE REALLY DID GREAT THINGS THIS YEAR AND DESERVE TO BE DRAFTED HIGH.
Alas, a lack of evidence is not evidence. We do have other ways to look at these prospects though, such as in terms of pure skills, or international competition (U-17, etc). I mean, let's face it. If Deni had a consistent jumper and was reliable from the free-throw line, everyone would be a lot higher on him.
But maybe you can answer my earlier question ... what makes Deni a better prospect than Cedi Osman when he was drafted?
a-French-Fan wrote:JonFromVA wrote:a-French-Fan wrote:About Luka, Deni and young players in Euroleague...
Euroleague is really a hard league for young players. LUKA WAS THE EXCEPTION. When I learnt Ayton was 1st and Luka 3rd, I laught. Maybe Ayton will be a superstar, but what Doncic proved before his draft, it was really great. Maybe the best prospect since LeBron. And he was only 3rd pick.
So do not expect an other prospect with Doncic level before some years, even maybe it will never happen. Doncic hadto learn a new culture for his rookie season, and for his second he played already like a MVP.
In most of Euroleague rosters, there is no minutes for young players:
1) competition is really tough for playoffs
2) experience is needed for playoffs
3) low teams are not sure to stay in Euroleague, so even with the worst record you have to struggle for wins, there is no tanking.
Look Bolmaro's situation. He played really few minutes. But who must go to the bench if you want him to play? Adam Hanga (former best euroleague defensive player)? Alex Abrines (really a good players even if he "didnt feel good" with Thunder)? ... Maybe Bolmaro is the Next Ginobili, but Ginobili was 23 when he played Euroleague with Virtus, and had already played to years in Italy before.
Barcelona have to win Euroleague again, they spent a lot last summer, there is no minutes to give to Bolmaro for his development.
Now, have a look on Pokusevski. His team badly started the season, and before Covid Olympiakos was struggling for play-off. So, sure he is a real prospect, but giving him minutes into Euroleague couldn't be the priority.
And finally Deni ... He average 14 minutes a game in Euroleague, in a team that could create a big surprise. Indeed, while Fener, Pana and Olympiakos had not qualified yet, Maccabi was 5th and already qualified. And Dani contributed to this. So appreciate the performance, instead of thinking "poor stats". Every game does account and is here. Think about Ball who went to NBL in a weak team to show his offensive skills, but who would not play a minute in Maccabi with such a defense.Or think about for Killian Hayes, expected as a top 5: he choose a low eurocup team after a bad season in Jeep Elite, but did not try to join a euroleague roster.
SO ... DANI IS NOT LUKA, BUT HE REALLY DID GREAT THINGS THIS YEAR AND DESERVE TO BE DRAFTED HIGH.
Alas, a lack of evidence is not evidence. We do have other ways to look at these prospects though, such as in terms of pure skills, or international competition (U-17, etc). I mean, let's face it. If Deni had a consistent jumper and was reliable from the free-throw line, everyone would be a lot higher on him.
But maybe you can answer my earlier question ... what makes Deni a better prospect than Cedi Osman when he was drafted?
I do not have a good answer. Actually Osman #31 it was really a lack of respect for him, it is like Parker at #29 after leading a pro team at 18 or Doncic only at #3 after dominating Euroleague. Sometimes you can't understand draft choices. So ... maybe there is more consideration for Euroleague now, or even european pro leagues.
I give you an other case: Ntilikina #8 and Malédon expected between #15 and #25. Oh wait there is maybe a part of the answer: Osman was not the best prospect from his team, Saric was (even if draft in 2014). Like Malédon was not leader of junior french national team because Killian Hayes was better. It is like playing with a better prospect would decrease value of a player.
JonFromVA wrote:a-French-Fan wrote:JonFromVA wrote:
Alas, a lack of evidence is not evidence. We do have other ways to look at these prospects though, such as in terms of pure skills, or international competition (U-17, etc). I mean, let's face it. If Deni had a consistent jumper and was reliable from the free-throw line, everyone would be a lot higher on him.
But maybe you can answer my earlier question ... what makes Deni a better prospect than Cedi Osman when he was drafted?
I do not have a good answer. Actually Osman #31 it was really a lack of respect for him, it is like Parker at #29 after leading a pro team at 18 or Doncic only at #3 after dominating Euroleague. Sometimes you can't understand draft choices. So ... maybe there is more consideration for Euroleague now, or even european pro leagues.
I give you an other case: Ntilikina #8 and Malédon expected between #15 and #25. Oh wait there is maybe a part of the answer: Osman was not the best prospect from his team, Saric was (even if draft in 2014). Like Malédon was not leader of junior french national team because Killian Hayes was better. It is like playing with a better prospect would decrease value of a player.
I'm not trying to explain why teams do what they do, but rather asking what makes Deni a better prospect than Cedi was; or are you arguing that Cedi would deserve to be a top-5 pick in this draft? If so ... that's a whole other problem.
Is it Deni's playmaking ability for his age? Cedi has demonstrated some ability to create and even be a primary scorer in international games, but maybe that wasn't on display when he was 19?
JonFromVA wrote:But maybe you can answer my earlier question ... what makes Deni a better prospect than Cedi Osman when he was drafted?
Pistol King wrote:JonFromVA wrote:But maybe you can answer my earlier question ... what makes Deni a better prospect than Cedi Osman when he was drafted?
Better star potential and better all around game potential. When you follow Cedi's youth career, his numbers were never really eye opening, while Deni averaged great numbers and proved to be the main offensive option. You see that the default starting point of Cedi is being a good role player, and the default starting point of Deni is being an all around star player
Let's make a quick comparison:
In his Euroleague U-18 games Deni averaged 24.7ppg 11.4rpg and 6.3 apg. 1.4spg and 0.8 bpg
In his Eurolaegue U-18 games Osman averaged 14ppg, 6.5rpg, 1.5apg 5spg and 0 bpg
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In his FIBA U-18 games Deni averaged 17.3ppg, 7.4rpg and 3apg, 1.4spg and 0.8bpg
In his FIBA U-18 games Osman averaged 6.4ppg, 2.2rpg, 0.9apg, 0.8spg and 0.1 bpg
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In his FIBA U-20 games (In year 2014), when he was 19 years old, Osman averaged 13.7ppg, 4.1rpg, 2.5apg, 0.9spg and 0.1bpg
In his FIBA U-20 games (In year 2019), when he was 18 years old, Deni averaged 18.4ppg, 8.3rpg, 5.3apg, 2.1spg and 2.4bpg
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You clearly see what both was capable of when played against their own age. The big gap is undeniable.
The numbers in the Euroleague are in favor for Cedi so far, but I think that's due to him being a high floor medium ceiling type of prospect. You could see that there aren't big positive changes trough out his senior career. Averaged more or less the same numbers in 4 seasons in the Euroleague (6.7ppg), and showing the same issue in the NBA, while taking 1 year to adjust, then comes to his peak, and stays at the same level more or less without too much place to grow much more than what he has shown in his youth games (averaging 12ppg the last two years). With Deni I get the opposite impression. He's a medium floor high ceiling prospect who depends alot on the chances he gets. When he got those chances he has shown trough out his whole career he can be a main option.
Maccabi Tel Aviv's coach is a very defensive minded. So Deni, who is much better offensive player generally than a defensive one, needed to earn his chances in Maccabi through his defense, an area he was less known for. And after he stepped up his defense, in the last 8 games he already averaging 30mpg and 16.6ppg in the Israeli league, and 20mpg and 7.5ppg in the Euroleague, while having the best plus minus on the entire team in both competitions in these games stretch, which shows he needs to get bigger minutes than he got. And that's when he earn his minutes trough defense and when Maccabi already brought other experience players to run the show on the offensive end, which makes it hard for Deni to really show his offensive skills as he prove to be when the offense is rely on him much more.
King Stannis wrote:Anyone standing out and screaming "Pick me" this year?
Stillwater wrote:King Stannis wrote:Anyone standing out and screaming "Pick me" this year?
No
No Zion or Ja or Luka in the draft.
I mean Hayes Anthony Ball and Toppin are the top offense w meh defense picks , Okoro and Edwards are the best wing defenders that have some guard skill on or off ball but both need work shooting not only from deep but taking the right shot. Ramsey is a better shooter than both but lacks same head height and needs coached up.
Okongwu and Wiseman are intriguing interior options with Wiseman having elite rim runner ability similar to jaxson hayes and physical tools to become a defensive player of year type but lacks offensive footwork and range right now but morsoe lacks same bbiq defensively as Okongwu who has a higher floor and is also more mobile defending 2-5 that should let him play the pf and center role offensively and switch onto anyone defensively.
Then there is the high iq sleeper that cant shoot well in Avdija and high floor 3 and D types like Vassell or the freak athlete sb5 like Achiuwa
Or the versatile Haliburton or High upside Jalen stix Smith .
I like Stewart and Vassell more than most as pick at 6th sleepers if the lottery draw fs us
Revenged25 wrote:Stillwater wrote:King Stannis wrote:Anyone standing out and screaming "Pick me" this year?
No
No Zion or Ja or Luka in the draft.
I mean Hayes Anthony Ball and Toppin are the top offense w meh defense picks , Okoro and Edwards are the best wing defenders that have some guard skill on or off ball but both need work shooting not only from deep but taking the right shot. Ramsey is a better shooter than both but lacks same head height and needs coached up.
Okongwu and Wiseman are intriguing interior options with Wiseman having elite rim runner ability similar to jaxson hayes and physical tools to become a defensive player of year type but lacks offensive footwork and range right now but morsoe lacks same bbiq defensively as Okongwu who has a higher floor and is also more mobile defending 2-5 that should let him play the pf and center role offensively and switch onto anyone defensively.
Then there is the high iq sleeper that cant shoot well in Avdija and high floor 3 and D types like Vassell or the freak athlete sb5 like Achiuwa
Or the versatile Haliburton or High upside Jalen stix Smith .
I like Stewart and Vassell more than most as pick at 6th sleepers if the lottery draw fs us
This draft feels more like one where I would want to trade the #1 or #2 overall pick for more picks in the mid/late lotto, especially since most of the top rated prospects fall into areas that we've recently drafted a player high at and don't seem like they would be better/better enough to make the pick and replace them this early on. So for example maybe we could trade the #2 pick to the Knicks for #6, #25, and a future 1st with lotto protections. At #6 we could go for someone like Deni Avdija and then at #25 someone like Jalen Smith or Jaden McDaniels.
Stillwater wrote:Revenged25 wrote:Stillwater wrote:No
No Zion or Ja or Luka in the draft.
I mean Hayes Anthony Ball and Toppin are the top offense w meh defense picks , Okoro and Edwards are the best wing defenders that have some guard skill on or off ball but both need work shooting not only from deep but taking the right shot. Ramsey is a better shooter than both but lacks same head height and needs coached up.
Okongwu and Wiseman are intriguing interior options with Wiseman having elite rim runner ability similar to jaxson hayes and physical tools to become a defensive player of year type but lacks offensive footwork and range right now but morsoe lacks same bbiq defensively as Okongwu who has a higher floor and is also more mobile defending 2-5 that should let him play the pf and center role offensively and switch onto anyone defensively.
Then there is the high iq sleeper that cant shoot well in Avdija and high floor 3 and D types like Vassell or the freak athlete sb5 like Achiuwa
Or the versatile Haliburton or High upside Jalen stix Smith .
I like Stewart and Vassell more than most as pick at 6th sleepers if the lottery draw fs us
This draft feels more like one where I would want to trade the #1 or #2 overall pick for more picks in the mid/late lotto, especially since most of the top rated prospects fall into areas that we've recently drafted a player high at and don't seem like they would be better/better enough to make the pick and replace them this early on. So for example maybe we could trade the #2 pick to the Knicks for #6, #25, and a future 1st with lotto protections. At #6 we could go for someone like Deni Avdija and then at #25 someone like Jalen Smith or Jaden McDaniels.
yeah I am not sold we would do this at 1 or 2 until I see the draft order behind us. but maybe at 3 or 4 we would agree to move down a couple spots pick up an early 2nd or late first and still get Okongwu or Wiseman. I doubt we could still get them by doing that though unless the draft order is all team needing pgs right behind us that someone will try to leapfrog for Ball for example. I dont see any reason to not take one of those 2 bigs at 1 or 2 in this draft because most of the top ranked prospects like Edwards or Okoro are redundant with KPJ here at one or 2, and Dre is not staying in cle after next season if he stays this season, TT is gone etc. taking Ball or Hayes might be tempting after Garlands meh season but given Collin stepped up I doubt they take another pg or combo guard this year.
NYG wrote:If the following things become true...
1. The clear cut Tier 1 by draft night is James Wiseman, LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards.
2. Cleveland wins the draft lottery.
3. The trade up offers either don’t exist or aren’t good at all.
Who would the Cavs draft and why?
Stillwater wrote:NYG wrote:If the following things become true...
1. The clear cut Tier 1 by draft night is James Wiseman, LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards.
2. Cleveland wins the draft lottery.
3. The trade up offers either don’t exist or aren’t good at all.
Who would the Cavs draft and why?
That scenario is unlikely to be 100 % reality. I mean those 3 could be considered the top prospects by most orgs or analysts but if thats the case unless CLE made it known they didn't agree with that,then its a given there would be offers to leap frog some teams by more desperate ones...that would be worthy of being considered.
That being said Edwards probably doesnt have enough of a lead in the clubhouse to get the nod over Wiseman's upside for now but id not be shocked to hear Edwards Okongwu or Ball's name called either based on higher floors.
My gut tells me they are seriously considering Ball despite the guard logjam but probably pass with odds hed be a flight risk, might fall in love with Wiseman's upside if he kills it in a private work out but maybe to risky at 1 without one, and probably see the value of Edwards and Okoro about the same only a touch better than Hayes or Vassell but none of them being great fits either so the only real question is how high of a ceiling do they value Okongwu because his floor to defend 4 positions is possibly worth the top pick if they see enough upside.
NYG wrote:Stillwater wrote:NYG wrote:If the following things become true...
1. The clear cut Tier 1 by draft night is James Wiseman, LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards.
2. Cleveland wins the draft lottery.
3. The trade up offers either don’t exist or aren’t good at all.
Who would the Cavs draft and why?
That scenario is unlikely to be 100 % reality. I mean those 3 could be considered the top prospects by most orgs or analysts but if thats the case unless CLE made it known they didn't agree with that,then its a given there would be offers to leap frog some teams by more desperate ones...that would be worthy of being considered.
That being said Edwards probably doesnt have enough of a lead in the clubhouse to get the nod over Wiseman's upside for now but id not be shocked to hear Edwards Okongwu or Ball's name called either based on higher floors.
My gut tells me they are seriously considering Ball despite the guard logjam but probably pass with odds hed be a flight risk, might fall in love with Wiseman's upside if he kills it in a private work out but maybe to risky at 1 without one, and probably see the value of Edwards and Okoro about the same only a touch better than Hayes or Vassell but none of them being great fits either so the only real question is how high of a ceiling do they value Okongwu because his floor to defend 4 positions is possibly worth the top pick if they see enough upside.
Let’s say the best offer was 6, 27 and 38
Would Cleveland take that or just draft Ball/Edwards?