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A Drummond extension?

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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#41 » by jbk1234 » Tue Sep 1, 2020 5:03 pm

Revenged25 wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Revenged25 wrote:Oh, I completely understand the concern there, but if we wanted to lower teh cap hit this year and have him locked in till he's 30 and at a reasonable price while Love is here, I'd take the chance if we weren't able to get Wiseman/Okongwu


For me, they have an entire season to evaluate. They need to use it. Twenty million may, or may not, be a reasonable price. The only downside is Drummond performs so well this year he can't be re-signed at $20M per which seems extraordinarily unlikely for an entire laundry list of reasons.

The downside to extending early are as follows: (1) losing the opportunity to trade his expiring contract ahead of a summer where cap space will be at a premium; (2) he doesn't prove to be a particularly good fit with the younger guys and you either sacrifice their development or bring him off the bench; and (3) the rest of the league doesn't think he's worth the contract, you get stuck with him, or worse, have to trade him for an even worse deal without proper compensation.

No. 2 concerns me the most. Love is a pretty easy guy to fit into a roster so long as you have a big who can provide some rim protection while rotating over to help and/or you aren't starting two guards who are traffic cones defensively. But offensively, he gives you all the spacing you could want out of the PF position and he's a willing passer so long as the ball moves. Drummond isn't a plug and play guy. You have to make adjustments on the offensive end. The Cavs really need to take at least the first half of the season and see how it works before offering him an extension.

We're going to have spent five first round picks, three in the top 10, on this roster and we need to know what we have with them before making long-term decisions. The only thing worse than missing on a pick is hitting on it, hampering development due to roster construction, and watching that player shine with another team. See, e.g., the Orlando Magic.


Fair. Maybe give him half the season and if it looks working out go for a 4 year extension. Regardless I don't really want him on the roster past Love's time on the roster but I think he would want a longer deal with more money.


The fact that he wants a longer deal with more money resulted in him getting traded for expiring contracts and a future second round pick. He was shopped. The Cavs weren't the only team on the Pistons spoke with.
It is highly unlikely that the Cavs will agree with your Kevin Love evaluation for the purpose of a trade.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#42 » by JonFromVA » Tue Sep 1, 2020 5:51 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
Revenged25 wrote:I would go as high as 20/yr for Drummond if they can front load it since they are going to have a lot of cap tied up with Love regardless. So a 5 yr/ 100 extension would have his cap numbers at:

23,466,020.60
21,588,738.95
19,861,639.84 (Loves last season)
18,272,708.65
16,810,891.95

So the final 2 seasons without Love eating up a lot of the cap space has him at the 16-18 range that people wanted.
See, a $100M extension, after a pretty meh three week tryout, just seems crazy to me.


It was supposed to be a longer tryout, but not much we can do about that. Drummond still managed to fill up the box score pretty well, and $18M/yr average is in the range of what starting C's around the league get ... well ... got. TBD what Covid will do to the salary structure of the league.

What's the crazy part?

If there weren't risks, Andre would have re-signed with Detroit for the max rather getting traded for the proverbial poo poo platter. If we can align his salary with that risk, it's just a reasonable gamble to invest cap space to try to improve the team.

What other options do we have with that future cap space to improve the team right now that would be lower risk?

For better or worse, those are the constraints Koby Altman is working under. Make Dan Gilbert happy, make Kevin Love happy, deal with Tristan possibly walking, try to compete next season, try to patch up the worst defense in the league, try to get fans to buy season tickets, etc, etc.

Speaking of season tickets, something I heard was that in LeBron's last year that season ticket holders were required to purchase for 3 seasons and they're all now finally off contract. If that's accurate, then the organization hasn't been paying the full cost of sucking the past two seasons.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#43 » by jbk1234 » Tue Sep 1, 2020 6:14 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Revenged25 wrote:I would go as high as 20/yr for Drummond if they can front load it since they are going to have a lot of cap tied up with Love regardless. So a 5 yr/ 100 extension would have his cap numbers at:

23,466,020.60
21,588,738.95
19,861,639.84 (Loves last season)
18,272,708.65
16,810,891.95

So the final 2 seasons without Love eating up a lot of the cap space has him at the 16-18 range that people wanted.
See, a $100M extension, after a pretty meh three week tryout, just seems crazy to me.


It was supposed to be a longer tryout, but not much we can do about that. Drummond still managed to fill up the box score pretty well, and $18M/yr average is in the range of what starting C's around the league get ... well ... got. TBD what Covid will do to the salary structure of the league.

What's the crazy part?

If there weren't risks, Andre would have re-signed with Detroit for the max rather getting traded for the proverbial poo poo platter. If we can align his salary with that risk, it's just a reasonable gamble to invest cap space to try to improve the team.

What other options do we have with that future cap space to improve the team right now that would be lower risk?

For better or worse, those are the constraints Koby Altman is working under. Make Dan Gilbert happy, make Kevin Love happy, deal with Tristan possibly walking, try to compete next season, try to patch up the worst defense in the league, try to get fans to buy season tickets, etc, etc.

Speaking of season tickets, something I heard was that in LeBron's last year that season ticket holders were required to purchase for 3 seasons and they're all now finally off contract. If that's accurate, then the organization hasn't been paying the full cost of sucking the past two seasons.


Cap space has its own value. If not to the Cavs, to another team. Payroll flexibility is innately valuable. With the exception of true max players, shorter is always better. The biggest mistake rebuilding teams from mid markets make is on overpaying flawed veterans who they then can't move for value, or worse yet, can't move without attaching value. There are countless examples of it around the league. Teams who get tired of rebuilding, attempt a quick fix, fail miserably, and then have to reset. The Cavs overpaid Love by $10M per by extending him early and how has that worked out in terms of trade value? They have an entire season to evaluate Drummond's fit on the team and they need to avail themselves of it.

Worrying about season ticket holders in a season where there won't be fans in the seats is nuts. Further, Kobe Altman needs to realize that if extending Drummond turns out to be a bad call, he'll be the one walking the plank, not Gilbert. Griffin was a good GM in large part because he was willing to save Gilbert from some of his worse impulses.

The secret to a successful rebuild is drafting two or three guys to build around, having some on-the-court success with those guys, and then getting serious about F.A. Maybe trying to steal a RFA who you think might have been underutilized on his rookie contract. Until we've found two or three young guys who we're confident are good enough to build around, that cap space should be treated as an asset to acquire more picks so we can take more bites at the apple.
It is highly unlikely that the Cavs will agree with your Kevin Love evaluation for the purpose of a trade.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#44 » by JonFromVA » Tue Sep 1, 2020 6:22 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
Revenged25 wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:See, a $100M extension, after a pretty meh three week tryout, just seems crazy to me.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J327A using RealGM mobile app

Oh, I completely understand the concern there, but if we wanted to lower teh cap hit this year and have him locked in till he's 30 and at a reasonable price while Love is here, I'd take the chance if we weren't able to get Wiseman/Okongwu


For me, they have an entire season to evaluate. They need to use it. Twenty million may, or may not, be a reasonable price. The only downside is Drummond performs so well this year he can't be re-signed at $20M per which seems extraordinarily unlikely for an entire laundry list of reasons.

The downside to extending early are as follows: (1) losing the opportunity to trade his expiring contract ahead of a summer where cap space will be at a premium; (2) he doesn't prove to be a particularly good fit with the younger guys and you either sacrifice their development or bring him off the bench; and (3) the rest of the league doesn't think he's worth the contract, you get stuck with him, or worse, have to trade him for an even worse deal without proper compensation.

No. 2 concerns me the most. Love is a pretty easy guy to fit into a roster so long as you have a big who can provide some rim protection while rotating over to help and/or you aren't starting two guards who are traffic cones defensively. But offensively, he gives you all the spacing you could want out of the PF position and he's a willing passer so long as the ball moves. Drummond isn't a plug and play guy. You have to make adjustments on the offensive end. The Cavs really need to take at least the first half of the season and see how it works before offering him an extension.

We're going to have spent five first round picks, three in the top 10, on this roster and we need to know what we have with them before making long-term decisions. The only thing worse than missing on a pick is hitting on it, hampering development due to roster construction, and watching that player shine with another team. See, e.g., the Orlando Magic.


Kevin's defense and injury history is a major problem or we would have been able to trade him without other teams asking for us to give up picks. The minimal thing we can do is put a rim protector next to him, and before Drummond we hadn't managed that since Mozgov.

Your point about using Drummond for his expiring contract is valid, but there are other costs to waiting that you're not taking in to account especially if there's a chance to sign Andre at a fair price.

If Andre doesn't feel the Cavs are committed to him, he's going to continue what he was doing after the trade. He's going to "bet on himself" and continue to do things like hoisting up 3's to the bewilderment of his coach and teammates, padding his boxscore numbers, and trying to earn that max deal from someone else when he does turn to free-agency.

Heck, that may be the outcome short of actually offering Andre a max deal. He may very well be that stubborn, but there's another way this might go if we can come to a compromise that demonstrates both sides are invested in each other's future. That's a level of finesse, I'm not sure Koby is ready to navigate but it does help that Kevin and Andre have the same agent.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#45 » by jbk1234 » Tue Sep 1, 2020 6:43 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Revenged25 wrote:Oh, I completely understand the concern there, but if we wanted to lower teh cap hit this year and have him locked in till he's 30 and at a reasonable price while Love is here, I'd take the chance if we weren't able to get Wiseman/Okongwu


For me, they have an entire season to evaluate. They need to use it. Twenty million may, or may not, be a reasonable price. The only downside is Drummond performs so well this year he can't be re-signed at $20M per which seems extraordinarily unlikely for an entire laundry list of reasons.

The downside to extending early are as follows: (1) losing the opportunity to trade his expiring contract ahead of a summer where cap space will be at a premium; (2) he doesn't prove to be a particularly good fit with the younger guys and you either sacrifice their development or bring him off the bench; and (3) the rest of the league doesn't think he's worth the contract, you get stuck with him, or worse, have to trade him for an even worse deal without proper compensation.

No. 2 concerns me the most. Love is a pretty easy guy to fit into a roster so long as you have a big who can provide some rim protection while rotating over to help and/or you aren't starting two guards who are traffic cones defensively. But offensively, he gives you all the spacing you could want out of the PF position and he's a willing passer so long as the ball moves. Drummond isn't a plug and play guy. You have to make adjustments on the offensive end. The Cavs really need to take at least the first half of the season and see how it works before offering him an extension.

We're going to have spent five first round picks, three in the top 10, on this roster and we need to know what we have with them before making long-term decisions. The only thing worse than missing on a pick is hitting on it, hampering development due to roster construction, and watching that player shine with another team. See, e.g., the Orlando Magic.


Kevin's defense and injury history is a major problem or we would have been able to trade him without other teams asking for us to give up picks. The minimal thing we can do is put a rim protector next to him, and before Drummond we hadn't managed that since Mozgov.

Your point about using Drummond for his expiring contract is valid, but there are other costs to waiting that you're not taking in to account especially if there's a chance to sign Andre at a fair price.

If Andre doesn't feel the Cavs are committed to him, he's going to continue what he was doing after the trade. He's going to "bet on himself" and continue to do things like hoisting up 3's to the bewilderment of his coach and teammates, padding his boxscore numbers, and trying to earn that max deal from someone else when he does turn to free-agency.

Heck, that may be the outcome short of actually offering Andre a max deal. He may very well be that stubborn, but there's another way this might go if we can come to a compromise that demonstrates both sides are invested in each other's future. That's a level of finesse, I'm not sure Koby is ready to navigate but it does help that Kevin and Andre have the same agent.


If you allow those concerns to dictate what type of contract you're going to offer, and when you're going to offer it, then you're a poorly run organization. Full stop.

Real talk here. There's no reasonable chance that another team is going to offer a plodding traditional center more than $20M per next summer. The Pistons concluded signing him to a max deal was a bad idea so they shopped him. The Cavs were the winning bid with expiring contracts and a second round pick. DAJ was signed at $10M per and that was favor to Durant. You're talking about allowing a guy on an expiring contract to leverage your organization into giving him a contract he probably isn't worth by engaging in conduct that will hurt his own market value the following summer. That should not even been a consideration IMO. You can buy him out or cut him if he decides to sabotage his own career that way. You'll still have the cap space to trade the following summer.
It is highly unlikely that the Cavs will agree with your Kevin Love evaluation for the purpose of a trade.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#46 » by JonFromVA » Tue Sep 1, 2020 6:53 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:See, a $100M extension, after a pretty meh three week tryout, just seems crazy to me.


It was supposed to be a longer tryout, but not much we can do about that. Drummond still managed to fill up the box score pretty well, and $18M/yr average is in the range of what starting C's around the league get ... well ... got. TBD what Covid will do to the salary structure of the league.

What's the crazy part?

If there weren't risks, Andre would have re-signed with Detroit for the max rather getting traded for the proverbial poo poo platter. If we can align his salary with that risk, it's just a reasonable gamble to invest cap space to try to improve the team.

What other options do we have with that future cap space to improve the team right now that would be lower risk?

For better or worse, those are the constraints Koby Altman is working under. Make Dan Gilbert happy, make Kevin Love happy, deal with Tristan possibly walking, try to compete next season, try to patch up the worst defense in the league, try to get fans to buy season tickets, etc, etc.

Speaking of season tickets, something I heard was that in LeBron's last year that season ticket holders were required to purchase for 3 seasons and they're all now finally off contract. If that's accurate, then the organization hasn't been paying the full cost of sucking the past two seasons.


Cap space has its own value. If not to the Cavs, to another team. Payroll flexibility is innately valuable. With the exception of true max players, shorter is always better. The biggest mistake rebuilding teams from mid markets make is on overpaying flawed veterans who they then can't move for value, or worse yet, can't move without attaching value. There are countless examples of it around the league. Teams who get tired of rebuilding, attempt a quick fix, fail miserably, and then have to reset. The Cavs overpaid Love by $10M per by extending him early and how has that worked out in terms of trade value? They have an entire season to evaluate Drummond's fit on the team and they need to avail themselves of it.

Worrying about season ticket holders in a season where there won't be fans in the seats is nuts. Further, Kobe Altman needs to realize that if extending Drummond turns out to be a bad call, he'll be the one walking the plank, not Gilbert. Griffin was a good GM in large part because he was willing to save Gilbert from some of his worse impulses.

The secret to a successful rebuild is drafting two or three guys to build around, having some on-the-court success with those guys, and then getting serious about F.A. Maybe trying to steal a RFA who you think might have been underutilized on his rookie contract. Until we've found two or three young guys who we're confident are good enough to build around, that cap space should be treated as an asset to acquire more picks so we can take more bites at the apple.


My point here is pretty simple. You're talking lost opportunities by not managing our cap space, but you can't quantify those. They're all based on leveraging circumstances that may or may not arise at some point in the future, so the risks are actually quite high and indefinitely delayed.

I also disagree that there is any secret to a successful rebuild beyond some combination of luck and smart choices.

A GM isn't really supposed to be weighing the risks or counting on luck, he's supposed to be making those smart choices. If Koby traded for Andre because he wants him long-term with the team, then he should do what he can do lock him up. Whether you agree with it or not, Dan wants the team to start winning and shoot for the playoffs not for the lottery - and he's not alone in that. That's just something Altman has to take in to account if he wants to keep his job.

My own concerns with the risks involved cause me to hope the Cavs only pursue Andre at a fair market price because IMO having talent at a fair price is the best means to trade for what you actually need and can always be turned in to cap space. Alas, signing players at a fair price has been very difficult for the Cavaliers. More often than not, agents have used Dan Gilbert to get better deals from other teams. And these concerns aren't even unique to the Cavs, there's a reason the CBA has so many rules to protect owners from their own decisions.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#47 » by JonFromVA » Tue Sep 1, 2020 7:11 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
For me, they have an entire season to evaluate. They need to use it. Twenty million may, or may not, be a reasonable price. The only downside is Drummond performs so well this year he can't be re-signed at $20M per which seems extraordinarily unlikely for an entire laundry list of reasons.

The downside to extending early are as follows: (1) losing the opportunity to trade his expiring contract ahead of a summer where cap space will be at a premium; (2) he doesn't prove to be a particularly good fit with the younger guys and you either sacrifice their development or bring him off the bench; and (3) the rest of the league doesn't think he's worth the contract, you get stuck with him, or worse, have to trade him for an even worse deal without proper compensation.

No. 2 concerns me the most. Love is a pretty easy guy to fit into a roster so long as you have a big who can provide some rim protection while rotating over to help and/or you aren't starting two guards who are traffic cones defensively. But offensively, he gives you all the spacing you could want out of the PF position and he's a willing passer so long as the ball moves. Drummond isn't a plug and play guy. You have to make adjustments on the offensive end. The Cavs really need to take at least the first half of the season and see how it works before offering him an extension.

We're going to have spent five first round picks, three in the top 10, on this roster and we need to know what we have with them before making long-term decisions. The only thing worse than missing on a pick is hitting on it, hampering development due to roster construction, and watching that player shine with another team. See, e.g., the Orlando Magic.


Kevin's defense and injury history is a major problem or we would have been able to trade him without other teams asking for us to give up picks. The minimal thing we can do is put a rim protector next to him, and before Drummond we hadn't managed that since Mozgov.

Your point about using Drummond for his expiring contract is valid, but there are other costs to waiting that you're not taking in to account especially if there's a chance to sign Andre at a fair price.

If Andre doesn't feel the Cavs are committed to him, he's going to continue what he was doing after the trade. He's going to "bet on himself" and continue to do things like hoisting up 3's to the bewilderment of his coach and teammates, padding his boxscore numbers, and trying to earn that max deal from someone else when he does turn to free-agency.

Heck, that may be the outcome short of actually offering Andre a max deal. He may very well be that stubborn, but there's another way this might go if we can come to a compromise that demonstrates both sides are invested in each other's future. That's a level of finesse, I'm not sure Koby is ready to navigate but it does help that Kevin and Andre have the same agent.


If you allow those concerns to dictate what type of contract you're going to offer, and when you're going to offer it, then you're a poorly run organization. Full stop.

Real talk here. There's no reasonable chance that another team is going to offer a plodding traditional center more than $20M per next summer. The Pistons concluded signing him to a max deal was a bad idea so they shopped him. The Cavs were the winning bid with expiring contracts and a second round pick. DAJ was signed at $10M per and that was favor to Durant. You're talking about allowing a guy on an expiring contract to leverage your organization into giving him a contract he probably isn't worth by engaging in conduct that will hurt his own market value the following summer. That should not even been a consideration IMO. You can buy him out or cut him if he decides to sabotage his own career that way. You'll still have the cap space to trade the following summer.


Well, the Cavs are a poorly run organization, DAJ is a TERRIBLE comp for Andre, and everyone leverages the Cavs for a contract they aren't worth.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#48 » by jbk1234 » Tue Sep 1, 2020 7:21 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
It was supposed to be a longer tryout, but not much we can do about that. Drummond still managed to fill up the box score pretty well, and $18M/yr average is in the range of what starting C's around the league get ... well ... got. TBD what Covid will do to the salary structure of the league.

What's the crazy part?

If there weren't risks, Andre would have re-signed with Detroit for the max rather getting traded for the proverbial poo poo platter. If we can align his salary with that risk, it's just a reasonable gamble to invest cap space to try to improve the team.

What other options do we have with that future cap space to improve the team right now that would be lower risk?

For better or worse, those are the constraints Koby Altman is working under. Make Dan Gilbert happy, make Kevin Love happy, deal with Tristan possibly walking, try to compete next season, try to patch up the worst defense in the league, try to get fans to buy season tickets, etc, etc.

Speaking of season tickets, something I heard was that in LeBron's last year that season ticket holders were required to purchase for 3 seasons and they're all now finally off contract. If that's accurate, then the organization hasn't been paying the full cost of sucking the past two seasons.


Cap space has its own value. If not to the Cavs, to another team. Payroll flexibility is innately valuable. With the exception of true max players, shorter is always better. The biggest mistake rebuilding teams from mid markets make is on overpaying flawed veterans who they then can't move for value, or worse yet, can't move without attaching value. There are countless examples of it around the league. Teams who get tired of rebuilding, attempt a quick fix, fail miserably, and then have to reset. The Cavs overpaid Love by $10M per by extending him early and how has that worked out in terms of trade value? They have an entire season to evaluate Drummond's fit on the team and they need to avail themselves of it.

Worrying about season ticket holders in a season where there won't be fans in the seats is nuts. Further, Kobe Altman needs to realize that if extending Drummond turns out to be a bad call, he'll be the one walking the plank, not Gilbert. Griffin was a good GM in large part because he was willing to save Gilbert from some of his worse impulses.

The secret to a successful rebuild is drafting two or three guys to build around, having some on-the-court success with those guys, and then getting serious about F.A. Maybe trying to steal a RFA who you think might have been underutilized on his rookie contract. Until we've found two or three young guys who we're confident are good enough to build around, that cap space should be treated as an asset to acquire more picks so we can take more bites at the apple.


My point here is pretty simple. You're talking lost opportunities by not managing our cap space, but you can't quantify those. They're all based on leveraging circumstances that may or may not arise at some point in the future, so the risks are actually quite high and indefinitely delayed.

I also disagree that there is any secret to a successful rebuild beyond some combination of luck and smart choices.

A GM isn't really supposed to be weighing the risks or counting on luck, he's supposed to be making those smart choices. If Koby traded for Andre because he wants him long-term with the team, then he should do what he can do lock him up. Whether you agree with it or not, Dan wants the team to start winning and shoot for the playoffs not for the lottery - and he's not alone in that. That's just something Altman has to take in to account if he wants to keep his job.

My own concerns with the risks involved cause me to hope the Cavs only pursue Andre at a fair market price because IMO having talent at a fair price is the best means to trade for what you actually need and can always be turned in to cap space. Alas, signing players at a fair price has been very difficult for the Cavaliers. More often than not, agents have used Dan Gilbert to get better deals from other teams. And these concerns aren't even unique to the Cavs, there's a reason the CBA has so many rules to protect owners from their own decisions.


Those circumstances exist presently. There are playoff teams with narrowing windows, many of whom have championship aspirations, who need to do something about their own books. You can name them. Next year's F.A. class may end up being *historically stacked,* and its RFA class is really, really impressive. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2019/08/06/the-2021-nba-free-agent-class-could-be-historically-stacked/#13498a376e6d Meanwhile, the amount of revenue that forms the basis for the cap is going down. Cap space is going to be scarce and it's going to go for a premium.

A GM is absolutely suppose to weigh risks. Elton Brand didn't weigh risks when he maxed T. Harris and signed a 33-year old Al Horford to a four-year $80M deal. Morey didn't weigh risks when signed CP3 to that contract and he ended up mortgaging the farm to swap him out for a demonstrably inferior and equally immovable player. As soon as the NBA put a salary cap in place, managing risk became an essential part of the job.

Whether the Cavs have a shot at the playoffs is going to depend, almost entirely, on Sexton, internal growth from the other young guys, and whether the player we draft this year can meaningfully contribute in his rookie season. Neither Love, Drummond, nor both of them combined, are good enough to overcome the type of dysfunction we saw last year.

I don't believe Drummond will get $20M per next summer. Again, he's not a plug and play player. If his agent wants an extension, it's because he believes that to be the case as well.
It is highly unlikely that the Cavs will agree with your Kevin Love evaluation for the purpose of a trade.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#49 » by jbk1234 » Tue Sep 1, 2020 7:24 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Kevin's defense and injury history is a major problem or we would have been able to trade him without other teams asking for us to give up picks. The minimal thing we can do is put a rim protector next to him, and before Drummond we hadn't managed that since Mozgov.

Your point about using Drummond for his expiring contract is valid, but there are other costs to waiting that you're not taking in to account especially if there's a chance to sign Andre at a fair price.

If Andre doesn't feel the Cavs are committed to him, he's going to continue what he was doing after the trade. He's going to "bet on himself" and continue to do things like hoisting up 3's to the bewilderment of his coach and teammates, padding his boxscore numbers, and trying to earn that max deal from someone else when he does turn to free-agency.

Heck, that may be the outcome short of actually offering Andre a max deal. He may very well be that stubborn, but there's another way this might go if we can come to a compromise that demonstrates both sides are invested in each other's future. That's a level of finesse, I'm not sure Koby is ready to navigate but it does help that Kevin and Andre have the same agent.


If you allow those concerns to dictate what type of contract you're going to offer, and when you're going to offer it, then you're a poorly run organization. Full stop.

Real talk here. There's no reasonable chance that another team is going to offer a plodding traditional center more than $20M per next summer. The Pistons concluded signing him to a max deal was a bad idea so they shopped him. The Cavs were the winning bid with expiring contracts and a second round pick. DAJ was signed at $10M per and that was favor to Durant. You're talking about allowing a guy on an expiring contract to leverage your organization into giving him a contract he probably isn't worth by engaging in conduct that will hurt his own market value the following summer. That should not even been a consideration IMO. You can buy him out or cut him if he decides to sabotage his own career that way. You'll still have the cap space to trade the following summer.


Well, the Cavs are a poorly run organization, DAJ is a TERRIBLE comp for Andre, and everyone leverages the Cavs for a contract they aren't worth.


The latter is only a problem, from the Cavs perspective, if the Cavs are the team giving the player a contract he isn't worth.
It is highly unlikely that the Cavs will agree with your Kevin Love evaluation for the purpose of a trade.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#50 » by JonFromVA » Tue Sep 1, 2020 9:47 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Cap space has its own value. If not to the Cavs, to another team. Payroll flexibility is innately valuable. With the exception of true max players, shorter is always better. The biggest mistake rebuilding teams from mid markets make is on overpaying flawed veterans who they then can't move for value, or worse yet, can't move without attaching value. There are countless examples of it around the league. Teams who get tired of rebuilding, attempt a quick fix, fail miserably, and then have to reset. The Cavs overpaid Love by $10M per by extending him early and how has that worked out in terms of trade value? They have an entire season to evaluate Drummond's fit on the team and they need to avail themselves of it.

Worrying about season ticket holders in a season where there won't be fans in the seats is nuts. Further, Kobe Altman needs to realize that if extending Drummond turns out to be a bad call, he'll be the one walking the plank, not Gilbert. Griffin was a good GM in large part because he was willing to save Gilbert from some of his worse impulses.

The secret to a successful rebuild is drafting two or three guys to build around, having some on-the-court success with those guys, and then getting serious about F.A. Maybe trying to steal a RFA who you think might have been underutilized on his rookie contract. Until we've found two or three young guys who we're confident are good enough to build around, that cap space should be treated as an asset to acquire more picks so we can take more bites at the apple.


My point here is pretty simple. You're talking lost opportunities by not managing our cap space, but you can't quantify those. They're all based on leveraging circumstances that may or may not arise at some point in the future, so the risks are actually quite high and indefinitely delayed.

I also disagree that there is any secret to a successful rebuild beyond some combination of luck and smart choices.

A GM isn't really supposed to be weighing the risks or counting on luck, he's supposed to be making those smart choices. If Koby traded for Andre because he wants him long-term with the team, then he should do what he can do lock him up. Whether you agree with it or not, Dan wants the team to start winning and shoot for the playoffs not for the lottery - and he's not alone in that. That's just something Altman has to take in to account if he wants to keep his job.

My own concerns with the risks involved cause me to hope the Cavs only pursue Andre at a fair market price because IMO having talent at a fair price is the best means to trade for what you actually need and can always be turned in to cap space. Alas, signing players at a fair price has been very difficult for the Cavaliers. More often than not, agents have used Dan Gilbert to get better deals from other teams. And these concerns aren't even unique to the Cavs, there's a reason the CBA has so many rules to protect owners from their own decisions.


Those circumstances exist presently. There are playoff teams with narrowing windows, many of whom have championship aspirations, who need to do something about their own books. You can name them. Next year's F.A. class may end up being *historically stacked,* and its RFA class is really, really impressive. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2019/08/06/the-2021-nba-free-agent-class-could-be-historically-stacked/#13498a376e6d Meanwhile, the amount of revenue that forms the basis for the cap is going down. Cap space is going to be scarce and it's going to go for a premium.

A GM is absolutely suppose to weigh risks. Elton Brand didn't weigh risks when he maxed T. Harris and signed a 33-year old Al Horford to a four-year $80M deal. Morey didn't weigh risks when signed CP3 to that contract and he ended up mortgaging the farm to swap him out for a demonstrably inferior and equally immovable player. As soon as the NBA put a salary cap in place, managing risk became an essential part of the job.

Whether the Cavs have a shot at the playoffs is going to depend, almost entirely, on Sexton, internal growth from the other young guys, and whether the player we draft this year can meaningfully contribute in his rookie season. Neither Love, Drummond, nor both of them combined, are good enough to overcome the type of dysfunction we saw last year.

I don't believe Drummond will get $20M per next summer. Again, he's not a plug and play player. If his agent wants an extension, it's because he believes that to be the case as well.


A GM in Altman's position is going to weight things like what will help him stay employed. We can state our opinions and guess what he might do, but don't be surprised if it turns out Drummond was part of his plan and he moves on that plan sooner rather than later for perhaps some of the reasons I've said.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#51 » by JonFromVA » Tue Sep 1, 2020 9:54 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
If you allow those concerns to dictate what type of contract you're going to offer, and when you're going to offer it, then you're a poorly run organization. Full stop.

Real talk here. There's no reasonable chance that another team is going to offer a plodding traditional center more than $20M per next summer. The Pistons concluded signing him to a max deal was a bad idea so they shopped him. The Cavs were the winning bid with expiring contracts and a second round pick. DAJ was signed at $10M per and that was favor to Durant. You're talking about allowing a guy on an expiring contract to leverage your organization into giving him a contract he probably isn't worth by engaging in conduct that will hurt his own market value the following summer. That should not even been a consideration IMO. You can buy him out or cut him if he decides to sabotage his own career that way. You'll still have the cap space to trade the following summer.


Well, the Cavs are a poorly run organization, DAJ is a TERRIBLE comp for Andre, and everyone leverages the Cavs for a contract they aren't worth.


The latter is only a problem, from the Cavs perspective, if the Cavs are the team giving the player a contract he isn't worth.


We are talking about the team that paid Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and JR Smith big deals when by all reports we were the only team pursuing them?
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#52 » by jbk1234 » Tue Sep 1, 2020 10:53 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Well, the Cavs are a poorly run organization, DAJ is a TERRIBLE comp for Andre, and everyone leverages the Cavs for a contract they aren't worth.


The latter is only a problem, from the Cavs perspective, if the Cavs are the team giving the player a contract he isn't worth.


We are talking about the team that paid Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and JR Smith big deals when by all reports we were the only team pursuing them?
Oh, I thought you meant agents using the Cavs as a stalking horse in order to get other teams to offer more money.

If you mean Klutch and LBJ, those were unique circumstances that shouldn't be repeated.

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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#53 » by Revenged25 » Tue Sep 1, 2020 10:54 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Well, the Cavs are a poorly run organization, DAJ is a TERRIBLE comp for Andre, and everyone leverages the Cavs for a contract they aren't worth.


The latter is only a problem, from the Cavs perspective, if the Cavs are the team giving the player a contract he isn't worth.


We are talking about the team that paid Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and JR Smith big deals when by all reports we were the only team pursuing them?


Well Love was still under contract so no other team could pursue him, and TT and JR got the contracts they did cuz they were LeBron's buddies and wanted them paid whatever they wanted.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#54 » by jbk1234 » Tue Sep 1, 2020 11:09 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
My point here is pretty simple. You're talking lost opportunities by not managing our cap space, but you can't quantify those. They're all based on leveraging circumstances that may or may not arise at some point in the future, so the risks are actually quite high and indefinitely delayed.

I also disagree that there is any secret to a successful rebuild beyond some combination of luck and smart choices.

A GM isn't really supposed to be weighing the risks or counting on luck, he's supposed to be making those smart choices. If Koby traded for Andre because he wants him long-term with the team, then he should do what he can do lock him up. Whether you agree with it or not, Dan wants the team to start winning and shoot for the playoffs not for the lottery - and he's not alone in that. That's just something Altman has to take in to account if he wants to keep his job.

My own concerns with the risks involved cause me to hope the Cavs only pursue Andre at a fair market price because IMO having talent at a fair price is the best means to trade for what you actually need and can always be turned in to cap space. Alas, signing players at a fair price has been very difficult for the Cavaliers. More often than not, agents have used Dan Gilbert to get better deals from other teams. And these concerns aren't even unique to the Cavs, there's a reason the CBA has so many rules to protect owners from their own decisions.


Those circumstances exist presently. There are playoff teams with narrowing windows, many of whom have championship aspirations, who need to do something about their own books. You can name them. Next year's F.A. class may end up being *historically stacked,* and its RFA class is really, really impressive. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2019/08/06/the-2021-nba-free-agent-class-could-be-historically-stacked/#13498a376e6d Meanwhile, the amount of revenue that forms the basis for the cap is going down. Cap space is going to be scarce and it's going to go for a premium.

A GM is absolutely suppose to weigh risks. Elton Brand didn't weigh risks when he maxed T. Harris and signed a 33-year old Al Horford to a four-year $80M deal. Morey didn't weigh risks when signed CP3 to that contract and he ended up mortgaging the farm to swap him out for a demonstrably inferior and equally immovable player. As soon as the NBA put a salary cap in place, managing risk became an essential part of the job.

Whether the Cavs have a shot at the playoffs is going to depend, almost entirely, on Sexton, internal growth from the other young guys, and whether the player we draft this year can meaningfully contribute in his rookie season. Neither Love, Drummond, nor both of them combined, are good enough to overcome the type of dysfunction we saw last year.

I don't believe Drummond will get $20M per next summer. Again, he's not a plug and play player. If his agent wants an extension, it's because he believes that to be the case as well.


A GM in Altman's position is going to weight things like what will help him stay employed. We can state our opinions and guess what he might do, but don't be surprised if it turns out Drummond was part of his plan and he moves on that plan sooner rather than later for perhaps some of the reasons I've said.
Suffice to say, my faith in the organization will be shaken if they extend Drummond. Altman could end up losing his job anyway, only people will question whether he should get another one.

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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#55 » by JonFromVA » Wed Sep 2, 2020 12:06 am

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
The latter is only a problem, from the Cavs perspective, if the Cavs are the team giving the player a contract he isn't worth.


We are talking about the team that paid Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and JR Smith big deals when by all reports we were the only team pursuing them?
Oh, I thought you meant agents using the Cavs as a stalking horse in order to get other teams to offer more money.

If you mean Klutch and LBJ, those were unique circumstances that shouldn't be repeated.


We're just coming at this topic from different angles. You keep talking about what you think should happen, and I keep talking about what I suspect will happen based on the team's track record.

So, no, I don't think either are unique circumstances.

I think agents can and will still leverage Dan Gilbert to get better deals for their players, and I think when Dan misses out on those players, he will continue to overpay to get something when his alternative is to get nothing.

By trading for Drummond, Koby has given the Cavs another option at C, but he still needs to do something whether that's pissing Love off by letting TT and AD go and drafting a C, or signing AD, signing TT, or some combination. He has a bit more leverage than if they'd done nothing, but there's still pressure to do something.

Alas, Dan's health and Covid could certainly lead to changes from past patterns.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#56 » by jbk1234 » Wed Sep 2, 2020 12:12 am

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
We are talking about the team that paid Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and JR Smith big deals when by all reports we were the only team pursuing them?
Oh, I thought you meant agents using the Cavs as a stalking horse in order to get other teams to offer more money.

If you mean Klutch and LBJ, those were unique circumstances that shouldn't be repeated.


We're just coming at this topic from different angles. You keep talking about what you think should happen, and I keep talking about what I suspect will happen based on the team's track record.

So, no, I don't think either are unique circumstances.

I think agents can and will still leverage Dan Gilbert to get better deals for their players, and I think when Dan misses out on those players, he will continue to overpay to get something when his alternative is to get nothing.

By trading for Drummond, Koby has given the Cavs another option at C, but he still needs to do something whether that's pissing Love off by letting TT and AD go and drafting a C, or signing AD, signing TT, or some combination. He has a bit more leverage than if they'd done nothing, but there's still pressure to do something.

Alas, Dan's health and Covid could certainly lead to changes from past patterns.
I've been one of Love's biggest defenders on this board. I think you should absolutely have a rim protector playing alongside him. But it doesn't follow that you need to pay a guy $100M to do that when guys like McGee, Howard, and Noel can all be signed for $5M per.

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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#57 » by JonFromVA » Wed Sep 2, 2020 3:15 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Those circumstances exist presently. There are playoff teams with narrowing windows, many of whom have championship aspirations, who need to do something about their own books. You can name them. Next year's F.A. class may end up being *historically stacked,* and its RFA class is really, really impressive. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2019/08/06/the-2021-nba-free-agent-class-could-be-historically-stacked/#13498a376e6d Meanwhile, the amount of revenue that forms the basis for the cap is going down. Cap space is going to be scarce and it's going to go for a premium.

A GM is absolutely suppose to weigh risks. Elton Brand didn't weigh risks when he maxed T. Harris and signed a 33-year old Al Horford to a four-year $80M deal. Morey didn't weigh risks when signed CP3 to that contract and he ended up mortgaging the farm to swap him out for a demonstrably inferior and equally immovable player. As soon as the NBA put a salary cap in place, managing risk became an essential part of the job.

Whether the Cavs have a shot at the playoffs is going to depend, almost entirely, on Sexton, internal growth from the other young guys, and whether the player we draft this year can meaningfully contribute in his rookie season. Neither Love, Drummond, nor both of them combined, are good enough to overcome the type of dysfunction we saw last year.

I don't believe Drummond will get $20M per next summer. Again, he's not a plug and play player. If his agent wants an extension, it's because he believes that to be the case as well.


A GM in Altman's position is going to weight things like what will help him stay employed. We can state our opinions and guess what he might do, but don't be surprised if it turns out Drummond was part of his plan and he moves on that plan sooner rather than later for perhaps some of the reasons I've said.
Suffice to say, my faith in the organization will be shaken if they extend Drummond. Altman could end up losing his job anyway, only people will question whether he should get another one.


Unless we get a chance to see him play, and he plays well and seems to fit? Then I presume your opinion would change?

That could be because you were like 25% optimistic (or whatever) when we traded for Drummond and presumed based on what you know about him and our team that he wouldn't fit.

But would you have traded for him in the first place?

From our discussion, I'm guessing no. With a low chance of working out and other things we could do with the cap space, why waste our time?

But then we get to Koby/Dan who did trade for him and I imagine they were a lot more optimistic and weren't interested in wasting time or opportunities just to kick tires on Andre or see what the team might look like with a 7 footer. Sure, that's a nice bonus, but I don't think they bother making the trade unless they're oh, 65% maybe 75% optimistic.

So, in a situation where we do not find out for sure whether Andre would be good for the team or worth ____ $$$, you'd round down and let Drummond walk ... but I'm thinking it's likely that Koby/Dan would round up and try to keep him *if* Andre is interested in extending now at something less than max.
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#58 » by JonFromVA » Wed Sep 2, 2020 3:26 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:Oh, I thought you meant agents using the Cavs as a stalking horse in order to get other teams to offer more money.

If you mean Klutch and LBJ, those were unique circumstances that shouldn't be repeated.


We're just coming at this topic from different angles. You keep talking about what you think should happen, and I keep talking about what I suspect will happen based on the team's track record.

So, no, I don't think either are unique circumstances.

I think agents can and will still leverage Dan Gilbert to get better deals for their players, and I think when Dan misses out on those players, he will continue to overpay to get something when his alternative is to get nothing.

By trading for Drummond, Koby has given the Cavs another option at C, but he still needs to do something whether that's pissing Love off by letting TT and AD go and drafting a C, or signing AD, signing TT, or some combination. He has a bit more leverage than if they'd done nothing, but there's still pressure to do something.

Alas, Dan's health and Covid could certainly lead to changes from past patterns.
I've been one of Love's biggest defenders on this board. I think you should absolutely have a rim protector playing alongside him. But it doesn't follow that you need to pay a guy $100M to do that when guys like McGee, Howard, and Noel can all be signed for $5M per.


Not by the Cavs, not even when LeBron was here. We get Ryan Hollins or we do stuff like trading 2 first round picks for Timofey Mozgov who even after struggling for most of a season with a knee injury turned that in to a $16M/yr deal with the Lakers.

Again, I have to confess my thinking is all based on pre-Covid precedents, but there's still a supply/demand problem for the Cavs because we are one of the last options a player considers as a free-agent unless there's some connection (like Drummond and Love sharing the same agent).
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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#59 » by jbk1234 » Wed Sep 2, 2020 4:07 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
We're just coming at this topic from different angles. You keep talking about what you think should happen, and I keep talking about what I suspect will happen based on the team's track record.

So, no, I don't think either are unique circumstances.

I think agents can and will still leverage Dan Gilbert to get better deals for their players, and I think when Dan misses out on those players, he will continue to overpay to get something when his alternative is to get nothing.

By trading for Drummond, Koby has given the Cavs another option at C, but he still needs to do something whether that's pissing Love off by letting TT and AD go and drafting a C, or signing AD, signing TT, or some combination. He has a bit more leverage than if they'd done nothing, but there's still pressure to do something.

Alas, Dan's health and Covid could certainly lead to changes from past patterns.
I've been one of Love's biggest defenders on this board. I think you should absolutely have a rim protector playing alongside him. But it doesn't follow that you need to pay a guy $100M to do that when guys like McGee, Howard, and Noel can all be signed for $5M per.


Not by the Cavs, not even when LeBron was here. We get Ryan Hollins or we do stuff like trading 2 first round picks for Timofey Mozgov who even after struggling for most of a season with a knee injury turned that in to a $16M/yr deal with the Lakers.

Again, I have to confess my thinking is all based on pre-Covid precedents, but there's still a supply/demand problem for the Cavs because we are one of the last options a player considers as a free-agent unless there's some connection (like Drummond and Love sharing the same agent).
Last year, pre-Covid, the Kings overpaid Dedmon at $8M per. That's the type of overpay teams who aren't F.A. destinations should make. I think you can land Noel, or even bring a guy like Henson back at $6M

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Re: A Drummond extension? 

Post#60 » by jbk1234 » Wed Sep 2, 2020 4:15 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
A GM in Altman's position is going to weight things like what will help him stay employed. We can state our opinions and guess what he might do, but don't be surprised if it turns out Drummond was part of his plan and he moves on that plan sooner rather than later for perhaps some of the reasons I've said.
Suffice to say, my faith in the organization will be shaken if they extend Drummond. Altman could end up losing his job anyway, only people will question whether he should get another one.


Unless we get a chance to see him play, and he plays well and seems to fit? Then I presume your opinion would change?

That could be because you were like 25% optimistic (or whatever) when we traded for Drummond and presumed based on what you know about him and our team that he wouldn't fit.

But would you have traded for him in the first place?

From our discussion, I'm guessing no. With a low chance of working out and other things we could do with the cap space, why waste our time?

But then we get to Koby/Dan who did trade for him and I imagine they were a lot more optimistic and weren't interested in wasting time or opportunities just to kick tires on Andre or see what the team might look like with a 7 footer. Sure, that's a nice bonus, but I don't think they bother making the trade unless they're oh, 65% maybe 75% optimistic.

So, in a situation where we do not find out for sure whether Andre would be good for the team or worth ____ $$$, you'd round down and let Drummond walk ... but I'm thinking it's likely that Koby/Dan would round up and try to keep him *if* Andre is interested in extending now at something less than max.
My entire point is that there's no good reason to extend him until you've seen him play, at least half a season, and you have a better sense of what's going on with the salary cap.

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