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guess the record first 38

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guess the record first 38

less then 15 wins
4
36%
more than 15 wins
3
27%
less then 5 wins
1
9%
more than 25 wins
2
18%
other
1
9%
 
Total votes: 11

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guess the record first 38 

Post#1 » by Stillwater » Wed Dec 23, 2020 12:05 am

What type of record good or bad do you expect in the Cavs to have in the first 38
notable here is 24 of those games are against teams who are projected to repeat as playoff rosters
and only 6 games against high lottery projected rebuilding rosters the other 8 are a mixed bag of fringe playoff teams.
I expect the Cavs to be favored in 3 games total in the first half of the season and expect them to win maybe 12.
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#2 » by Stillwater » Wed Dec 23, 2020 1:59 am

not sure who voted over 15 but I would love to know why you think that...
Its not impossible but highly unlikely given the need to develop and establish roles all season
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#3 » by Revenged25 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 5:16 am

Stillwater wrote:not sure who voted over 15 but I would love to know why you think that...
Its not impossible but highly unlikely given the need to develop and establish roles all season


Because there wasn't an option for 15. I think through the first 38 games it'll be between 13-17 wins and I think they'll end up about 30 wins for the season, barring a fire sale at the deadline.
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#4 » by Stillwater » Wed Dec 23, 2020 5:30 am

Revenged25 wrote:
Stillwater wrote:not sure who voted over 15 but I would love to know why you think that...
Its not impossible but highly unlikely given the need to develop and establish roles all season


Because there wasn't an option for 15. I think through the first 38 games it'll be between 13-17 wins and I think they'll end up about 30 wins for the season, barring a fire sale at the deadline.
not out of the question for sure but I'm banking on them forcing a dg sexton pairing at least the first 5 games probably 15 esp if kpj is slow to earn minutes etc.
I also like their chances to improve throughout enough to finish at around a 35 -40% win vs 60- 65% loss range without moving drummond or love but easily dropping to worst record in league if they move one or both vets.
I dont think they move either tbh maybe dre but im guessing 30 wins is the ceiling regardless which might be enough to get them into the play in tournament where maybe they can play spoiler. But i think being in games and losing most will be the way it goes maxing out around 24- 26 wins
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#5 » by jbk1234 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:26 am

I have us at under 15 wins, but I'm not sure by how much. I think there's a decent chance Okoro gets slid over to the 2 guard sooner rather than later. Fedor said that while they'll initially start Sexton and Garland, they're going stagger their minutes and Sexton will get more run with the bench unit. However it ultimately ends up, it doesn't sound like they're going to be as zealously committed to forcing a square peg into a round hole.

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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#6 » by Revenged25 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:33 pm

Stillwater wrote:
Revenged25 wrote:
Stillwater wrote:not sure who voted over 15 but I would love to know why you think that...
Its not impossible but highly unlikely given the need to develop and establish roles all season


Because there wasn't an option for 15. I think through the first 38 games it'll be between 13-17 wins and I think they'll end up about 30 wins for the season, barring a fire sale at the deadline.
not out of the question for sure but I'm banking on them forcing a dg sexton pairing at least the first 5 games probably 15 esp if kpj is slow to earn minutes etc.
I also like their chances to improve throughout enough to finish at around a 35 -40% win vs 60- 65% loss range without moving drummond or love but easily dropping to worst record in league if they move one or both vets.
I dont think they move either tbh maybe dre but im guessing 30 wins is the ceiling regardless which might be enough to get them into the play in tournament where maybe they can play spoiler. But i think being in games and losing most will be the way it goes maxing out around 24- 26 wins


Well I was thinking if they won about 60% of the games against the expected to be bad/fringe teams, that'd be about 8 wins, then they only need to win 7 of 24 games, less than 33%, against the good teams to hit 15 wins.
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#7 » by Stillwater » Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:29 pm

Revenged25 wrote:
Stillwater wrote:
Revenged25 wrote:
Because there wasn't an option for 15. I think through the first 38 games it'll be between 13-17 wins and I think they'll end up about 30 wins for the season, barring a fire sale at the deadline.
not out of the question for sure but I'm banking on them forcing a dg sexton pairing at least the first 5 games probably 15 esp if kpj is slow to earn minutes etc.
I also like their chances to improve throughout enough to finish at around a 35 -40% win vs 60- 65% loss range without moving drummond or love but easily dropping to worst record in league if they move one or both vets.
I dont think they move either tbh maybe dre but im guessing 30 wins is the ceiling regardless which might be enough to get them into the play in tournament where maybe they can play spoiler. But i think being in games and losing most will be the way it goes maxing out around 24- 26 wins


Well I was thinking if they won about 60% of the games against the expected to be bad/fringe teams, that'd be about 8 wins, then they only need to win 7 of 24 games, less than 33%, against the good teams to hit 15 wins.

I mean I have a lot of optimism about this roster to be a 500 team if they play only line ups that are trying to win as opposed to develop and win which rarely works but if they are able to play to their strengths and build chemistry they should at least have a good portion of "good losses" but I am so low on DG right now I think he stinks up the rotation enough to spoil the punch esp if they use him against other teams best players all season. I feel like what will happen is he either rises to the level of expectations quickly and is worth developing off the bench or he struggles most of the season again in the sl until the front office buries his trade stock completely and makes Sexton disgruntled too. Then they got nothing
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#8 » by JonFromVA » Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:25 pm

I voted "other" because even after a full pre-season there's rarely enough information to base a prediction on.
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#9 » by Stillwater » Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:53 pm

JonFromVA wrote:I voted "other" because even after a full pre-season there's rarely enough information to base a prediction on.

right there never is anything new just because of a preseason per say except we know that nobody came into the preseason dominating like they did in training camo supposedly so there is that grain of salt etc.
I would love to think that Okoros defense and energy alone could help the Cavs stay afloat or stay in games they would not have last season but he has some growing pains to go through as a rookie and I dont expect much in that way as far as win column results unless he figures out how to stay out of foul trouble.
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#10 » by Stillwater » Thu Dec 24, 2020 1:20 am

Im ready to add a good 5 or 6 wins to the original estimate if the defensive effort and smart rotations continue
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#11 » by JonFromVA » Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:22 am

Stillwater wrote:Im ready to add a good 5 or 6 wins to the original estimate if the defensive effort and smart rotations continue


And the ball movement + assists. If they can increase their assists against even good teams that will go a long ways towards getting to .500. otoh, they can't just get tired of working hard and fall back on hero-ball - which is something we've seen a lot of over the years.
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#12 » by Stillwater » Sun Dec 27, 2020 3:47 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
Stillwater wrote:Im ready to add a good 5 or 6 wins to the original estimate if the defensive effort and smart rotations continue


And the ball movement + assists. If they can increase their assists against even good teams that will go a long ways towards getting to .500. otoh, they can't just get tired of working hard and fall back on hero-ball - which is something we've seen a lot of over the years.

Garland and Sexton focused von defensive intensity is clearly helping them offensively already except late game . Seeing that raises my initial expectations further
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#13 » by JonFromVA » Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:37 pm

Stillwater wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Stillwater wrote:Im ready to add a good 5 or 6 wins to the original estimate if the defensive effort and smart rotations continue


And the ball movement + assists. If they can increase their assists against even good teams that will go a long ways towards getting to .500. otoh, they can't just get tired of working hard and fall back on hero-ball - which is something we've seen a lot of over the years.


Garland and Sexton focused von defensive intensity is clearly helping them offensively already except late game . Seeing that raises my initial expectations further


We're getting a lot of flashes of all the goods and bads with the team. It should be enough to beat some good teams occasionally. Nice test .vs. Philly tonight who (at least last season) played terrific defense that would fluster our guys.
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#14 » by Harper4Ferry? » Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:24 am

JB is doing a helluva job with the rotations so far. I might go 17-21 or something just cause it's too early to tell how good we'll do with adversity.
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#15 » by ConstableChaos » Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:39 am

38-0
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#16 » by Stillwater » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:47 am

lol how about 36-2 with both losses coming on days when Dre rests...
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#17 » by JonFromVA » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:31 pm

Stillwater wrote:lol how about 36-2 with both losses coming on days when Dre rests...


McGee has been amazing as well, but I suppose he can't play 48 or back himself up.

7 footers looks a lot more viable in this league when you play to their strengths rather than ask them to space the floor and defend out past the 3pt line. It may be worth the cost if we don't get our wings hurt trying to fight through screens (a big concern for Kyrie when Byron Scott was coach).

That's another areas where adding Okoro helps this roster out - putting him on whichever opposing wing is getting hot and let him try to fight through screens and slow them down. If he's effective at it, then by not switching we don't give opponents a chance to trivially change the match-up and then they basically need two players that are deadly shooters running the P&R so they can try to exploit someone else.

Interesting, that we have just that with Sexton and Garland.

In contrast, Mike Longabardi tried to install a complex P&R defense where the players were asked to read the situation and switch the coverage based on what was going on between different methods. If the defenders didn't communicate well or weren't on the same page, though, that's where we ended up giving up easy layups or we just got lost trying to keep up with the swing passes and gave up an open 3. By keeping our big man back, we're able to contest those shots and in better shape to rebound a miss especially with our length.

It's a really interesting approach, and while there will be times a players goes off on us like Rozier did; we should finally see some defensive improvement. Which at the moment is an understatement as our DRTG is currently 2nd in the league (while the Wizards with Longabardi are currently 23rd).
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#18 » by Stillwater » Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:23 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
Stillwater wrote:lol how about 36-2 with both losses coming on days when Dre rests...


McGee has been amazing as well, but I suppose he can't play 48 or back himself up.

7 footers looks a lot more viable in this league when you play to their strengths rather than ask them to space the floor and defend out past the 3pt line. It may be worth the cost if we don't get our wings hurt trying to fight through screens (a big concern for Kyrie when Byron Scott was coach).

That's another areas where adding Okoro helps this roster out - putting him on whichever opposing wing is getting hot and let him try to fight through screens and slow them down. If he's effective at it, then by not switching we don't give opponents a chance to trivially change the match-up and then they basically need two players that are deadly shooters running the P&R so they can try to exploit someone else.

Interesting, that we have just that with Sexton and Garland.

In contrast, Mike Longabardi tried to install a complex P&R defense where the players were asked to read the situation and switch the coverage based on what was going on between different methods. If the defenders didn't communicate well or weren't on the same page, though, that's where we ended up giving up easy layups or we just got lost trying to keep up with the swing passes and gave up an open 3. By keeping our big man back, we're able to contest those shots and in better shape to rebound a miss especially with our length.

It's a really interesting approach, and while there will be times a players goes off on us like Rozier did; we should finally see some defensive improvement. Which at the moment is an understatement as our DRTG is currently 2nd in the league (while the Wizards with Longabardi are currently 23rd).

I was kidding of course
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#19 » by JonFromVA » Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:38 pm

Stillwater wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Stillwater wrote:lol how about 36-2 with both losses coming on days when Dre rests...


McGee has been amazing as well, but I suppose he can't play 48 or back himself up.

7 footers looks a lot more viable in this league when you play to their strengths rather than ask them to space the floor and defend out past the 3pt line. It may be worth the cost if we don't get our wings hurt trying to fight through screens (a big concern for Kyrie when Byron Scott was coach).

That's another areas where adding Okoro helps this roster out - putting him on whichever opposing wing is getting hot and let him try to fight through screens and slow them down. If he's effective at it, then by not switching we don't give opponents a chance to trivially change the match-up and then they basically need two players that are deadly shooters running the P&R so they can try to exploit someone else.

Interesting, that we have just that with Sexton and Garland.

In contrast, Mike Longabardi tried to install a complex P&R defense where the players were asked to read the situation and switch the coverage based on what was going on between different methods. If the defenders didn't communicate well or weren't on the same page, though, that's where we ended up giving up easy layups or we just got lost trying to keep up with the swing passes and gave up an open 3. By keeping our big man back, we're able to contest those shots and in better shape to rebound a miss especially with our length.

It's a really interesting approach, and while there will be times a players goes off on us like Rozier did; we should finally see some defensive improvement. Which at the moment is an understatement as our DRTG is currently 2nd in the league (while the Wizards with Longabardi are currently 23rd).

I was kidding of course


I know, but being better than bottom of the league offense and all-time bad defense is pretty easily achieved by simply putting the right people in position to take advantage of their talents and hide their weaknesses. We've seen our players's weaknesses exposed for so long, maybe we've forgotten what that looks like.

But we shall see if this holds up and the guys can build on this early success, or if they're exposed. Heck, maybe just having so many days off and a lot of youth will be a big advantage for us this season.
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Re: guess the record first 38 

Post#20 » by Stillwater » Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:01 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
Stillwater wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
McGee has been amazing as well, but I suppose he can't play 48 or back himself up.

7 footers looks a lot more viable in this league when you play to their strengths rather than ask them to space the floor and defend out past the 3pt line. It may be worth the cost if we don't get our wings hurt trying to fight through screens (a big concern for Kyrie when Byron Scott was coach).

That's another areas where adding Okoro helps this roster out - putting him on whichever opposing wing is getting hot and let him try to fight through screens and slow them down. If he's effective at it, then by not switching we don't give opponents a chance to trivially change the match-up and then they basically need two players that are deadly shooters running the P&R so they can try to exploit someone else.

Interesting, that we have just that with Sexton and Garland.

In contrast, Mike Longabardi tried to install a complex P&R defense where the players were asked to read the situation and switch the coverage based on what was going on between different methods. If the defenders didn't communicate well or weren't on the same page, though, that's where we ended up giving up easy layups or we just got lost trying to keep up with the swing passes and gave up an open 3. By keeping our big man back, we're able to contest those shots and in better shape to rebound a miss especially with our length.

It's a really interesting approach, and while there will be times a players goes off on us like Rozier did; we should finally see some defensive improvement. Which at the moment is an understatement as our DRTG is currently 2nd in the league (while the Wizards with Longabardi are currently 23rd).

I was kidding of course


I know, but being better than bottom of the league offense and all-time bad defense is pretty easily achieved by simply putting the right people in position to take advantage of their talents and hide their weaknesses. We've seen our players's weaknesses exposed for so long, maybe we've forgotten what that looks like.

But we shall see if this holds up and the guys can build on this early success, or if they're exposed. Heck, maybe just having so many days off and a lot of youth will be a big advantage for us this season.

trust me teams are taking notice of the backcourt already but I am not sold it will matter much what they throw at us and I think the defense alone by this roster is the only thing that absolutely has to stay hot at all times even if some things offensively require adaptations they are not ready for. Garland has done exactly what I was saying he had to do immediately to justify a starting job and so I dont think the staggering rotations will stop any time soon unless he drops back to earth.
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