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Tank watch

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JonFromVA
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#101 » by JonFromVA » Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:25 pm

Stillwater wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Stillwater wrote:The likes of Green Kuminga and also Isaiah Todd and Nix were all 5 star prospects that have been highly recruited.There is really no question every one of them is high upside by NBA standards. ust how long a franchise wants to wait is another story


Of course, not every player is ready to drop 20ppg with efficiency as an 18yr old playing against bigger/stronger players, but those who do are typically going to include the basketball prodigies who are expected to be far ahead of their peers at any level.

The players going straight to the G-League is something new, but I would expect a high-level 18 year old to do very well against that level of competition *if* they're physically far enough along and their skills/abilities are highly advanced.

There are also ton of reasons why a GM/organization would prefer to draft a 19 year old that's not going to take a few years just to show they belong in the league. The Cavs are at a point in their rebuild where they would benefit from drafting a more NBA ready prospect themselves, so, this may be a factor even if they fall somewhere in the draft where they might have the opportunity to take a raw prospect like Kuminga.

I completely disagree that they should be fast forwarding anything . but you are probably right that is their mindset.
Kuminga is not "raw" at all though unless you want a knock down outside shooter that will average 30 a night or close to it like Sexton who wasnt a good shooter either pre draft.But I guess his outside shot struggles dont have anything to do with injuries...Kuminga has been nursing a wrist injury all season too. I really think it is funny how bad of a rep a prospect like Kuminga gets when they have excellent shooting tape mixed with tape of them chucking bad shots. This is a PF we are talking about and one that has elite Wiggins level athleticism along with Miles Bridges possibly Zion level explosiveness. He has shown a decent first step and a dribble drive that is advanced for a forward that allows him to initiate offensive sets or just attack the paint with multiple effective and basically unstoppable moves in iso.
He has the highest upside if you value physicality over shooting.


Again, I haven even started wasting my time watching these guys, but I can't help but wonder why a player with a wrist injury that's shooting 24% from 3pt is attempting 5 per game? If he has the level of athleticism, explosiveness, first step, and drive ability you suggest why is he shooting 38%? He should be yamming on everyone. Something is not translating, and it's not exactly all that hard to translate to the Gleague.

Upside and ceiling are great but if they aren't realized or only happens after the player is no longer with your team ... the cost is very high. If you want Kuminga, you should probably be hoping we (and he) fall far enough back in the lottery where those risks can be ignored.
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#102 » by Stillwater » Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:13 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
Stillwater wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Of course, not every player is ready to drop 20ppg with efficiency as an 18yr old playing against bigger/stronger players, but those who do are typically going to include the basketball prodigies who are expected to be far ahead of their peers at any level.

The players going straight to the G-League is something new, but I would expect a high-level 18 year old to do very well against that level of competition *if* they're physically far enough along and their skills/abilities are highly advanced.

There are also ton of reasons why a GM/organization would prefer to draft a 19 year old that's not going to take a few years just to show they belong in the league. The Cavs are at a point in their rebuild where they would benefit from drafting a more NBA ready prospect themselves, so, this may be a factor even if they fall somewhere in the draft where they might have the opportunity to take a raw prospect like Kuminga.

I completely disagree that they should be fast forwarding anything . but you are probably right that is their mindset.
Kuminga is not "raw" at all though unless you want a knock down outside shooter that will average 30 a night or close to it like Sexton who wasnt a good shooter either pre draft.But I guess his outside shot struggles dont have anything to do with injuries...Kuminga has been nursing a wrist injury all season too. I really think it is funny how bad of a rep a prospect like Kuminga gets when they have excellent shooting tape mixed with tape of them chucking bad shots. This is a PF we are talking about and one that has elite Wiggins level athleticism along with Miles Bridges possibly Zion level explosiveness. He has shown a decent first step and a dribble drive that is advanced for a forward that allows him to initiate offensive sets or just attack the paint with multiple effective and basically unstoppable moves in iso.
He has the highest upside if you value physicality over shooting.


Again, I haven even started wasting my time watching these guys, but I can't help but wonder why a player with a wrist injury that's shooting 24% from 3pt is attempting 5 per game? If he has the level of athleticism, explosiveness, first step, and drive ability you suggest why is he shooting 38%? He should be yamming on everyone. Something is not translating, and it's not exactly all that hard to translate to the Gleague.

Upside and ceiling are great but if they aren't realized or only happens after the player is no longer with your team ... the cost is very high. If you want Kuminga, you should probably be hoping we (and he) fall far enough back in the lottery where those risks can be ignored.

I dont want them to draft somebody based on stats in any league...I want them to read between the lines and see the players weakness and know if it is fixable because this team needs someone who can break down defenses more than 2 guards they have and I want them to draft him because he is the only one above 6'6 in the top 5 that can do that. Maybe somebody else shows up in 22 or 23 when they start drafting for upside and talent instead of asking if the prospect fits their needs in spite of their skillset
SUNDOWN BRINGS A WELCOME CHANGE TO EVERYTHING THAT'S HIDING

Fischella wrote "There are easily 40-50 dudes with higher ceilings than Juzang in this class"
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#103 » by JonFromVA » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:28 am

Stillwater wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Stillwater wrote:I completely disagree that they should be fast forwarding anything . but you are probably right that is their mindset.
Kuminga is not "raw" at all though unless you want a knock down outside shooter that will average 30 a night or close to it like Sexton who wasnt a good shooter either pre draft.But I guess his outside shot struggles dont have anything to do with injuries...Kuminga has been nursing a wrist injury all season too. I really think it is funny how bad of a rep a prospect like Kuminga gets when they have excellent shooting tape mixed with tape of them chucking bad shots. This is a PF we are talking about and one that has elite Wiggins level athleticism along with Miles Bridges possibly Zion level explosiveness. He has shown a decent first step and a dribble drive that is advanced for a forward that allows him to initiate offensive sets or just attack the paint with multiple effective and basically unstoppable moves in iso.
He has the highest upside if you value physicality over shooting.


Again, I haven even started wasting my time watching these guys, but I can't help but wonder why a player with a wrist injury that's shooting 24% from 3pt is attempting 5 per game? If he has the level of athleticism, explosiveness, first step, and drive ability you suggest why is he shooting 38%? He should be yamming on everyone. Something is not translating, and it's not exactly all that hard to translate to the Gleague.

Upside and ceiling are great but if they aren't realized or only happens after the player is no longer with your team ... the cost is very high. If you want Kuminga, you should probably be hoping we (and he) fall far enough back in the lottery where those risks can be ignored.

I dont want them to draft somebody based on stats in any league...I want them to read between the lines and see the players weakness and know if it is fixable because this team needs someone who can break down defenses more than 2 guards they have and I want them to draft him because he is the only one above 6'6 in the top 5 that can do that. Maybe somebody else shows up in 22 or 23 when they start drafting for upside and talent instead of asking if the prospect fits their needs in spite of their skillset


And that's the crux of the problem because the one thing you can be most sure will follow a player to the NBA are his weaknesses ... so there's a clear payoff in selecting a player capable of playing at a high level as an 18yr old.

Stats are flawed due to differences in the level of competition and physical maturity; but outliers are a special case IMO.
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#104 » by Stillwater » Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:05 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
Stillwater wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Again, I haven even started wasting my time watching these guys, but I can't help but wonder why a player with a wrist injury that's shooting 24% from 3pt is attempting 5 per game? If he has the level of athleticism, explosiveness, first step, and drive ability you suggest why is he shooting 38%? He should be yamming on everyone. Something is not translating, and it's not exactly all that hard to translate to the Gleague.

Upside and ceiling are great but if they aren't realized or only happens after the player is no longer with your team ... the cost is very high. If you want Kuminga, you should probably be hoping we (and he) fall far enough back in the lottery where those risks can be ignored.

I dont want them to draft somebody based on stats in any league...I want them to read between the lines and see the players weakness and know if it is fixable because this team needs someone who can break down defenses more than 2 guards they have and I want them to draft him because he is the only one above 6'6 in the top 5 that can do that. Maybe somebody else shows up in 22 or 23 when they start drafting for upside and talent instead of asking if the prospect fits their needs in spite of their skillset


And that's the crux of the problem because the one thing you can be most sure will follow a player to the NBA are his weaknesses ... so there's a clear payoff in selecting a player capable of playing at a high level as an 18yr old.

Stats are flawed due to differences in the level of competition and physical maturity; but outliers are a special case IMO.

usually the amount of weaknesses is clearly more at the top of any draft where the highest of potentials exists and also the greatest risk. I dont think any of these prospect comes without significant development requirements unless they are picking after the top 6 where they most likely do go for some proven role player that fits their rebuild delusions
SUNDOWN BRINGS A WELCOME CHANGE TO EVERYTHING THAT'S HIDING

Fischella wrote "There are easily 40-50 dudes with higher ceilings than Juzang in this class"
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#105 » by JonFromVA » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:08 pm

So.... do the Cavs have what it takes to tank their way higher than the 6th spot?
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#106 » by Stillwater » Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:56 pm

JonFromVA wrote:So.... do the Cavs have what it takes to tank their way higher than the 6th spot?

They actually have a good of a chance of winning as not winning a top 4 pick sitting anywhere in the top 8 really with so little separation in odds anymore , maybe if luck is on their side it wont matter but if they fall from wherever they are which the odds scream is more probable it shouldnt be more than 1 or possibly 2 spots .But does it matter? I mean if you look at the positional situation in parallel with prospect rankings Suggs,Green and to some extent Mobley don't likely sit atop the Cavs BB for fit purposes not that it should matter but probably will.
Cade,Barnes,Kuminga have to be their top targets and Barnes/Kuminga project as 5th and 6th picks with some others possible at 6 if Cavs are at 7 they theoretically could still get one
SUNDOWN BRINGS A WELCOME CHANGE TO EVERYTHING THAT'S HIDING

Fischella wrote "There are easily 40-50 dudes with higher ceilings than Juzang in this class"
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#107 » by JonFromVA » Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:50 pm

Stillwater wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:So.... do the Cavs have what it takes to tank their way higher than the 6th spot?

They actually have a good of a chance of winning as not winning a top 4 pick sitting anywhere in the top 8 really with so little separation in odds anymore , maybe if luck is on their side it wont matter but if they fall from wherever they are which the odds scream is more probable it shouldnt be more than 1 or possibly 2 spots .But does it matter? I mean if you look at the positional situation in parallel with prospect rankings Suggs,Green and to some extent Mobley don't likely sit atop the Cavs BB for fit purposes not that it should matter but probably will.
Cade,Barnes,Kuminga have to be their top targets and Barnes/Kuminga project as 5th and 6th picks with some others possible at 6 if Cavs are at 7 they theoretically could still get one


Well, if we end up with the 6th worst record, we can technically fall to 10th but thankfully the odds of that are very low.

It just seems like they're starting to get locked in to their spot, but hey, the Cavs have a lot of experience running a tank.
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#108 » by Harper4Ferry? » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:55 pm

OKC finally won a game. They're now at 21 wins. We gotta pull a job vs the Magic tonight. After that, every single remaining game is vs a playoff team who likely will be playing for a spot of some sort. Except for Brooklyn the last game of the season. Thinking we win no more than 23 games. At #6 we have a 49.5% chance of picking 7/8. Would like to get up to #5 where we have a 46.x% chance of picking 6/7. Even if it's a 5 guy draft.
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#109 » by Stillwater » Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:27 pm

Harper4Ferry? wrote:OKC finally won a game. They're now at 21 wins. We gotta pull a job vs the Magic tonight. After that, every single remaining game is vs a playoff team who likely will be playing for a spot of some sort. Except for Brooklyn the last game of the season. Thinking we win no more than 23 games. At #6 we have a 49.5% chance of picking 7/8. Would like to get up to #5 where we have a 46.x% chance of picking 6/7. Even if it's a 5 guy draft.

this should be the Cavs final victory except maybe the May 14th game against WAS assuming Beal and co are out of the play in by then,this is the game they should be tanking though imo
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#110 » by Stillwater » Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:46 am

If ORL,DET and MINN all win 2 more games down the stretch and the Cavs lose out there will be a 4 way tie for 2nd behind the lowly Rockets. technically a 5 way tie if OKC loses out
SUNDOWN BRINGS A WELCOME CHANGE TO EVERYTHING THAT'S HIDING

Fischella wrote "There are easily 40-50 dudes with higher ceilings than Juzang in this class"
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#111 » by Harper4Ferry? » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:36 am

Stillwater wrote:If ORL,DET and MINN all win 2 more games down the stretch and the Cavs lose out there will be a 4 way tie for 2nd behind the lowly Rockets. technically a 5 way tie if OKC loses out



Hoping that Washington will need that game to keep themselves in the play-in tournament. The pathway to lose out is in front of us, but I feel like somehow we'll score 2-3 wins just because.
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#112 » by Stillwater » Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:02 am

Ive said it before but my confidence in this front office making the best choice is not good.
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Fischella wrote "There are easily 40-50 dudes with higher ceilings than Juzang in this class"
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#113 » by JonFromVA » Sun May 2, 2021 6:53 pm

Stillwater wrote:Ive said it before but my confidence in this front office making the best choice is not good.


I'm comfortable with that.

The Cavs have tanked their way 1 game within the 4th spot.

We're amazingly good at this.

Just when you think the team is getting healthy, our PG is breaking out, and the team seems poised to go on a roll ... we've got 7 players out again.
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#114 » by Harper4Ferry? » Sun May 2, 2021 8:21 pm

Bottom 6-
CLE/ORL/DET/OKC/MIN/HOU
|My guesses|
OKC-Prob loses out, maybe wins 1 at most-Expected 22 Wins
CLE-Prob wins 1 more via luck- 22 Wins
ORL-Games with DET, MIN, likely 21 Wins
DET-Games with ORL and MIN prob 20 wins
HOU-Virtual lock for #1, wins 17
MIN-vs DET/ORL-21 Wins Minnesota is 9-9 in their last 18 so it's possible they could win up to 23-24 games. I think there is protection on a #1 pick that they want to keep, however.

Cavs losing out could easily push them into 3rd, but more than 1 win and they're 6th. MIN/ORL/DET playing amongst themselves obviously helps our positioning a ton.
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#115 » by LivingLegend » Mon May 3, 2021 3:43 am

Saw another post on twitter about how vets still don't like Sexton because of how ball dominant he is. That and apparently other teams are telling cavs players on the court that they won't get the ball because he doesn't pass to anybody.

So this is going great. Why can't the Cavs be normally bad like the Magic, why do they have to be a dumpster fire.
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#116 » by jbk1234 » Mon May 3, 2021 1:42 pm

LivingLegend wrote:Saw another post on twitter about how vets still don't like Sexton because of how ball dominant he is. That and apparently other teams are telling cavs players on the court that they won't get the ball because he doesn't pass to anybody.

So this is going great. Why can't the Cavs be normally bad like the Magic, why do they have to be a dumpster fire.
I'd rather the front office factor in issues like that before they hand him a big contract and ruin his trade value. Honestly, I felt like he got a little bit better at sharing the ball this year it's just that his starting point wasn't good.

My bigger worry, my show me you get it if you want to get paid concern, is on the defensive end of the floor.

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Re: Tank watch 

Post#117 » by Stillwater » Mon May 3, 2021 2:44 pm

LivingLegend wrote:Saw another post on twitter about how vets still don't like Sexton because of how ball dominant he is. That and apparently other teams are telling cavs players on the court that they won't get the ball because he doesn't pass to anybody.

So this is going great. Why can't the Cavs be normally bad like the Magic, why do they have to be a dumpster fire.

Bs man total fn BS
When the Cavs get decent offensive production teams might stop being focused on their best scorer.
If its true so called vets still dont like him ... Name them and bench them.
When Sexton gets 8 dimes with no DG zero people on here show respect. DG does it and hes a all nba all star. The difference between players and the constant need for one or the other is really stupid.
This org does get one thing right it knows how irrational the average cleveland cavs fan is after so much feast or famine. And so they drafted a second smaller guard to create interest in positional competition.
I think its true teams are game planning Sexton because who the f else is worth defending vesides Allen
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#118 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 3, 2021 3:02 pm

LivingLegend wrote:Saw another post on twitter about how vets still don't like Sexton because of how ball dominant he is. That and apparently other teams are telling cavs players on the court that they won't get the ball because he doesn't pass to anybody.

So this is going great. Why can't the Cavs be normally bad like the Magic, why do they have to be a dumpster fire.


Vardon mentioned this in his recent article in The Athletic:

"Various Cavs players still grow frustrated by the way Sexton dominates the ball, and opponents taunt them by saying during games, “you know he’s not going to pass you the ball.” Sexton is imperfect, and he’ll always have the added stigma of proving himself worthy as the centerpiece of the Kyrie Irving trade."

What he doesn't mention is that Collin was moved to SG last year, gets buckets on a team that often struggles to, and that his assists, efficiency, and impact have all climbed. Typical of media narratives, I'm not surprised if "frustrated" has morphed from this report in to "don't like him". I have not seen signs that his teammates didn't like him since he was a rook. Do they appreciate that Garland is a more willing passer and sees the floor better? Absolutely.

And who's still putting any sort of Kyrie stigma on Collin? And if they are, did they forget that Kyrie didn't win anything in Cleveland until LeBron decided to return and took the ball out of his hands?
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#119 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 3, 2021 3:11 pm

Stillwater wrote:When Sexton gets 8 dimes with no DG zero people on here show respect.


That's your job ... the rest of us understand context.
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Re: Tank watch 

Post#120 » by LivingLegend » Mon May 3, 2021 4:33 pm

I think a lot of it is the offense. I have said on here 1000 times that at the beginning of the year the Cavs actually ran a movement offense with emphasis on passing and cutting. Since that Allen trade that offense no longer exists.

They have been running slow, boring, stand around offense for months now. That needs to chance if we want to get the best out of this team. The current offense only play is high P&R.

The offense changed and team got crappier and now everyone hates everyone. I dont care how many injures you have or what competition your playing your offense should be your offense. Also, this team also reverted back to playing with zero effort on defense--which was a staple of this team the first 2 months.

I think everyone is just burnt out and is mentally checked out waiting for the offseason.

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