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Allen extension

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Allen extension 

Post#1 » by jbk1234 » Sun May 23, 2021 12:56 am

Reports are that the Cavs have basically offered $100M (hopefully over 5 years). I like Allen. I want to keep Allen. I'm skeptical that there's another team who will offer him that much and I'm a little tired of these guys bidding against themselves.

Pluto's out here making noise that it could take $25M per to get it done, and I'm like or what? We have to match an offer where we're only on the hook at $25M for two fewer years? Deal. Let's do that. I'm just not sure these guys have a good sense of what the market actually is.

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Re: Allen extension 

Post#2 » by Stillwater » Sun May 23, 2021 5:50 pm

I could see them overpaying slightly
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Allen extension 

Post#3 » by KuruptedCav » Tue May 25, 2021 2:25 pm

Matching RFAs is always dicey. It can work out as long as your offer is fair and in the ballpark. Like $100mil over 5 years vs $50 million over 2 years is in the ballpark trading 20% AV for 2x security.

But if a small overpay meets in the middle, like $110 over 5 years, keeps everybody happy, so be it.

I can understand wanting to hit FA again sooner and betting on a rebounding salary cap.


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Re: Allen extension 

Post#4 » by toooskies » Tue May 25, 2021 3:08 pm

New TV deal will begin in the 2025-26 season, so Allen should want a 4-year deal to be a FA in summer 2025.
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#5 » by Revenged25 » Tue May 25, 2021 3:21 pm

toooskies wrote:New TV deal will begin in the 2025-26 season, so Allen should want a 4-year deal to be a FA in summer 2025.


If it is a 4 year deal, I think the max for a fair deal is 4/90 taking into account some improvement. That's the top range of what I think his value is and 4/100 while not egregious is still a slight overpay.
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#6 » by jbk1234 » Wed May 26, 2021 1:13 am

toooskies wrote:New TV deal will begin in the 2025-26 season, so Allen should want a 4-year deal to be a FA in summer 2025.
The NBA (read Silver) is making serious noise about ratings being down. The new TV deal might not be as generous as the old one.

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Re: Allen extension 

Post#7 » by toooskies » Wed May 26, 2021 4:45 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
toooskies wrote:New TV deal will begin in the 2025-26 season, so Allen should want a 4-year deal to be a FA in summer 2025.
The NBA (read Silver) is making serious noise about ratings being down. The new TV deal might not be as generous as the old one.

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There have been articles expecting the national TV deal to at least triple, and even if ratings never fully recover you can expect the national dollars to at least double. There will be tons more money when the new deal kicks in. (Thinking about it again, not sure if the cap goes up in 2025 or if it's delayed a year to 2026.)
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#8 » by jbk1234 » Wed May 26, 2021 4:51 pm

toooskies wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
toooskies wrote:New TV deal will begin in the 2025-26 season, so Allen should want a 4-year deal to be a FA in summer 2025.
The NBA (read Silver) is making serious noise about ratings being down. The new TV deal might not be as generous as the old one.

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There have been articles expecting the national TV deal to at least triple, and even if ratings never fully recover you can expect the national dollars to at least double. There will be tons more money when the new deal kicks in. (Thinking about it again, not sure if the cap goes up in 2025 or if it's delayed a year to 2026.)
Is there any evidence that the TV networks who signed the last deal have done anything other than lose money since? I've seen a couple articles making those projections, but the sources seem to be with the NBA circles. I'm not reading articles indicating that other networks are interested in bidding against the ones who currently have the rights.

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Re: Allen extension 

Post#9 » by Harper4Ferry? » Wed May 26, 2021 6:42 pm

India, China, etc will all have expanded viewership within a few years I'd assume. That should boost a lot of revenue. Also a ton of emerging markets
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#10 » by toooskies » Wed May 26, 2021 8:11 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
toooskies wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:The NBA (read Silver) is making serious noise about ratings being down. The new TV deal might not be as generous as the old one.

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There have been articles expecting the national TV deal to at least triple, and even if ratings never fully recover you can expect the national dollars to at least double. There will be tons more money when the new deal kicks in. (Thinking about it again, not sure if the cap goes up in 2025 or if it's delayed a year to 2026.)
Is there any evidence that the TV networks who signed the last deal have done anything other than lose money since? I've seen a couple articles making those projections, but the sources seem to be with the NBA circles. I'm not reading articles indicating that other networks are interested in bidding against the ones who currently have the rights.

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A lot can happen between now and 2025, but I think TV revenue for the NBA is a very safe bet to stay high assuming the country/world hasn't imploded due to COVID-22 or politics or whatever.
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#11 » by Stillwater » Wed May 26, 2021 10:46 pm

toooskies wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
toooskies wrote:There have been articles expecting the national TV deal to at least triple, and even if ratings never fully recover you can expect the national dollars to at least double. There will be tons more money when the new deal kicks in. (Thinking about it again, not sure if the cap goes up in 2025 or if it's delayed a year to 2026.)
Is there any evidence that the TV networks who signed the last deal have done anything other than lose money since? I've seen a couple articles making those projections, but the sources seem to be with the NBA circles. I'm not reading articles indicating that other networks are interested in bidding against the ones who currently have the rights.

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A lot can happen between now and 2025, but I think TV revenue for the NBA is a very safe bet to stay high assuming the country/world hasn't imploded due to COVID-22 or politics or whatever.

i dont know it seems the pandemic has hurt the ratings because fans are less engaged not being able to go to games actually seems to lessen interest all together instead of boosting tv ratings like one would assume it would.
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#12 » by JonFromVA » Wed May 26, 2021 10:50 pm

Stillwater wrote:
toooskies wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:Is there any evidence that the TV networks who signed the last deal have done anything other than lose money since? I've seen a couple articles making those projections, but the sources seem to be with the NBA circles. I'm not reading articles indicating that other networks are interested in bidding against the ones who currently have the rights.

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A lot can happen between now and 2025, but I think TV revenue for the NBA is a very safe bet to stay high assuming the country/world hasn't imploded due to COVID-22 or politics or whatever.


i dont know it seems the pandemic has hurt the ratings because fans are less engaged not being able to go to games actually seems to lessen interest all together instead of boosting tv ratings like one would assume it would.


There's some backlash to the style of play, lack of LeBron or other interesting narrative for a big chunk of the season, a whole bunch of other injuries making the regular season ridiculous, and likely some loss due to social issues and politics.

The playoffs have been pretty cool so far, though, and it wouldn't surprise me if viewership started bouncing back.
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#13 » by toooskies » Sat May 29, 2021 8:01 pm

Fans in the stands add to the experience. It’s easier to watch and cheer for a team when you hear the roar of the crowd cheering, too.
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#14 » by Stillwater » Sat May 29, 2021 8:59 pm

toooskies wrote:Fans in the stands add to the experience. It’s easier to watch and cheer for a team when you hear the roar of the crowd cheering, too.

It is funny how many people just enjoy the experience of going to a game to just do something when you work downtown or something even if they are not taking their kids or maybe because they need to get away lol. I have never gotten that into going to games since the coverage is better at home.
There is always a time to support the team and pay the $ to catch a rivalry game or something if the team is good but during the rebuild I doubt I would go much more than 5 games a season on resale last minute cheapos
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#15 » by Revenged25 » Sat May 29, 2021 9:30 pm

Stillwater wrote:
toooskies wrote:Fans in the stands add to the experience. It’s easier to watch and cheer for a team when you hear the roar of the crowd cheering, too.

It is funny how many people just enjoy the experience of going to a game to just do something when you work downtown or something even if they are not taking their kids or maybe because they need to get away lol. I have never gotten that into going to games since the coverage is better at home.
There is always a time to support the team and pay the $ to catch a rivalry game or something if the team is good but during the rebuild I doubt I would go much more than 5 games a season on resale last minute cheapos


I think you hit the most important part on the initial sentence. It's all about the experience. You drop some money and make it a weekend/few days hitting up a game, the casino, restaurants, etc.
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#16 » by JonFromVA » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:22 pm

If we're paying Allen the big bucks, hopefully it's because we see him developing in to a DPOY level C. Some of the other stuff is more in the nice to have category ... like improving his jumper, increasing his rebounding, etc. Getting stronger, otoh, is likely a necessity.

It shouldn't just be because we think he can salvage the Sexland backcourt.

Rudy Gobert was 24 when he made his first all defensive team, Ben Wallace was 27, Marc Gasol was 28, Brook Lopez was 31, Draymond Green was 24, etc ...

Noel who's now 27 came in to the league with that kind of upside, but has struggled with injuries since Kentucky. Still, it's not surprising a player who averaged 4.4 blocks in College as a freshman is able to do that at the NBA level.

For a 22 year old it's a lot more about projection than production. That's what will or won't get these guys paid.
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#17 » by jbk1234 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:03 pm

JonFromVA wrote:If we're paying Allen the big bucks, hopefully it's because we see him developing in to a DPOY level C. Some of the other stuff is more in the nice to have category ... like improving his jumper, increasing his rebounding, etc. Getting stronger, otoh, is likely a necessity.

It shouldn't just be because we think he can salvage the Sexland backcourt.

Rudy Gobert was 24 when he made his first all defensive team, Ben Wallace was 27, Marc Gasol was 28, Brook Lopez was 31, Draymond Green was 24, etc ...

Noel who's now 27 came in to the league with that kind of upside, but has struggled with injuries since Kentucky. Still, it's not surprising a player who averaged 4.4 blocks in College as a freshman is able to do that at the NBA level.

For a 22 year old it's a lot more about projection than production. That's what will or won't get these guys paid.
Wait, Brook Lopez made an all defensive team? In the NBA?

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Re: Allen extension 

Post#18 » by JonFromVA » Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:11 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:If we're paying Allen the big bucks, hopefully it's because we see him developing in to a DPOY level C. Some of the other stuff is more in the nice to have category ... like improving his jumper, increasing his rebounding, etc. Getting stronger, otoh, is likely a necessity.

It shouldn't just be because we think he can salvage the Sexland backcourt.

Rudy Gobert was 24 when he made his first all defensive team, Ben Wallace was 27, Marc Gasol was 28, Brook Lopez was 31, Draymond Green was 24, etc ...

Noel who's now 27 came in to the league with that kind of upside, but has struggled with injuries since Kentucky. Still, it's not surprising a player who averaged 4.4 blocks in College as a freshman is able to do that at the NBA level.

For a 22 year old it's a lot more about projection than production. That's what will or won't get these guys paid.
Wait, Brook Lopez made an all defensive team? In the NBA?


Mind blowing, huh?

He's still a crappy rebounder, but he had a careeer high 2.4 blocks per game last season when he landed on the 2nd team.
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Re: Allen extension 

Post#19 » by jbk1234 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:07 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:If we're paying Allen the big bucks, hopefully it's because we see him developing in to a DPOY level C. Some of the other stuff is more in the nice to have category ... like improving his jumper, increasing his rebounding, etc. Getting stronger, otoh, is likely a necessity.

It shouldn't just be because we think he can salvage the Sexland backcourt.

Rudy Gobert was 24 when he made his first all defensive team, Ben Wallace was 27, Marc Gasol was 28, Brook Lopez was 31, Draymond Green was 24, etc ...

Noel who's now 27 came in to the league with that kind of upside, but has struggled with injuries since Kentucky. Still, it's not surprising a player who averaged 4.4 blocks in College as a freshman is able to do that at the NBA level.

For a 22 year old it's a lot more about projection than production. That's what will or won't get these guys paid.
Wait, Brook Lopez made an all defensive team? In the NBA?


Mind blowing, huh?

He's still a crappy rebounder, but he had a careeer high 2.4 blocks per game last season when he landed on the 2nd team.
He's such a bad defender it's unbelievable. He basically plays alongside another 7 foot center whose uber athletic, one of the better two-way wings in the NBA, and this year Jrue. If you took those guys away, cement shoes couldn't start.

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Re: Allen extension 

Post#20 » by JonFromVA » Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:33 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:Wait, Brook Lopez made an all defensive team? In the NBA?


Mind blowing, huh?

He's still a crappy rebounder, but he had a careeer high 2.4 blocks per game last season when he landed on the 2nd team.
He's such a bad defender it's unbelievable. He basically plays alongside another 7 foot center whose uber athletic, one of the better two-way wings in the NBA, and this year Jrue. If you took those guys away, cement shoes couldn't start.


Remember when Zydrunas Ilgauskus became good on defense?

I'm not going to deep dive on Brook Lopez, but some players can change when asked to change, taught how to change, and given a role they can handle.

On the flip side, it's not hard to make someone who's been good on defense look bad.

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