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poll if 7th

Moderator: jbk1234

Cavs have best odds for 7th so with chalk taken who you want them to take or do?

Poll ended at Fri May 28, 2021 2:36 am

make a trade up or down
2
67%
pick Jalen Johnson
0
No votes
pick Keon Johnson
0
No votes
pick Kai Jones
0
No votes
pick Sengun
0
No votes
pick Moody
0
No votes
pick Giddey
0
No votes
pick Kispert
0
No votes
pick Isaiah Todd
0
No votes
pick someone not listed
1
33%
 
Total votes: 3

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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#41 » by JonFromVA » Sun May 30, 2021 6:04 pm

toooskies wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:Collin ball watches too much when off the ball. It's an obvious flaw, and fixable.

Darius needs to either continue to get stronger so he can hold his ground, or increase his intensity and try to strip the ball when facing a mismatch. Hopefully both.

Kyrie was downright lazy/uninterested on/in defense and couldn't run a team or win ... yet still got the full max. He's still not good at it, but can at least he can be pesky when it matters. I wouldn't question either Darius or Collin's effort in a tight situation.
Collin doesn't go over picks - ever. He often quits the play altogether in the PNR. He consistently helps off of good shooters without actually helping. He's a fundamentally unsound defender in a addition to be undersized. What was infuriating about this season is that he was often being hid.

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Seems like a lot of coaching decisions here, particularly never going over screens.


Byron Scott was a big proponent of old school defense and was asking the guys to fight through screens. Kyrie literally stopped trying after some of those early injuries. He also stopped trying to draw contact on his drives as well and instead turned to his fancy finishes to get the ball in the hoop.

My point is two fold, here. I'm not saying I wouldn't prefer Collin to be a tough rugged defender who willingly threw his body around and was able to absorb blows, rather that there are other ways to run a defense without requiring guards to fight through screens, and that guards who outright refuse to do what's being asked of them can still end up getting maxed.

82games has updated their stats for the season, and one area Collin continues to stand out is in clutch situations shooting around 62 eFG% from pretty much anywhere on the floor. The problem is in terms of impact because he's not raising our team's offensive rating high enough to outscore opponents. He's giving up the ball and his teammates aren't efficient enough to keep up the offensive rating.

Similarly Irving also struggled with this early in his career until LeBron came home. Irving had a big came against Boston similar to how Collin beat Brooklyn, other teams around the league woke up and realized they needed to pay them extra attention. Get the ball out of their hands or make them try to score against 3 defenders and the Cavs lose.

There's a lot Collin could do to manipulate defenses in those situations, but it has a lot to do with where his teammates are at as well. The more they can keep their man honest and step up in the clutch, the easier time Collin will have making an impact.

We've gotten used to having a generational player on the team who would manage those situations and make the most of them whether we went with a shooting lineup, a defensive lineup, or a pickup team of D-Leaguers; but mere mortals need a lot more help.
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#42 » by jbk1234 » Sun May 30, 2021 7:28 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:Collin doesn't go over picks - ever. He often quits the play altogether in the PNR. He consistently helps off of good shooters without actually helping. He's a fundamentally unsound defender in a addition to be undersized. What was infuriating about this season is that he was often being hid.

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Seems like a lot of coaching decisions here, particularly never going over screens.


Byron Scott was a big proponent of old school defense and was asking the guys to fight through screens. Kyrie literally stopped trying after some of those early injuries. He also stopped trying to draw contact on his drives as well and instead turned to his fancy finishes to get the ball in the hoop.

My point is two fold, here. I'm not saying I wouldn't prefer Collin to be a tough rugged defender who willingly threw his body around and was able to absorb blows, rather that there are other ways to run a defense without requiring guards to fight through screens, and that guards who outright refuse to do what's being asked of them can still end up getting maxed.

82games has updated their stats for the season, and one area Collin continues to stand out is in clutch situations shooting around 62 eFG% from pretty much anywhere on the floor. The problem is in terms of impact because he's not raising our team's offensive rating high enough to outscore opponents. He's giving up the ball and his teammates aren't efficient enough to keep up the offensive rating.

Similarly Irving also struggled with this early in his career until LeBron came home. Irving had a big came against Boston similar to how Collin beat Brooklyn, other teams around the league woke up and realized they needed to pay them extra attention. Get the ball out of their hands or make them try to score against 3 defenders and the Cavs lose.

There's a lot Collin could do to manipulate defenses in those situations, but it has a lot to do with where his teammates are at as well. The more they can keep their man honest and step up in the clutch, the easier time Collin will have making an impact.

We've gotten used to having a generational player on the team who would manage those situations and make the most of them whether we went with a shooting lineup, a defensive lineup, or a pickup team of D-Leaguers; but mere mortals need a lot more help.
Going through screens is different than going over screens. Now that we have Allen our guards can and should sell out trying to deny the three point shot even if that means making Allen assume responsibility for both players on the drive.

But in addition to being the second worst team in made threes, we're the second worst team in the NBA in terms of opponents 3 point percentage and that cannot continue. You're never going to be a winning team if you're trading 2 points for 3.

I don't want to say that fans on this board overvalue our players, but they do overvalue a status quo that has the team losing 60 games a season, three seasons in a row, and more often than not, losing those games by a wide margin. Internal growth is very unlikely to solve the Cavs issues on its own.

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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#43 » by Stillwater » Sun May 30, 2021 9:21 pm

Sexton might not be worth a max right now but the residual of paying him is a gamble worth taking imo.
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#44 » by jbk1234 » Sun May 30, 2021 11:50 pm

Stillwater wrote:Sexton might not be worth a max right now but the residual of paying him is a gamble worth taking imo.
Extending him now is stupid and most of the people posting here know it. If he plays his way into max status his 4th year, then you make the maximum Q.O. next summer.

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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#45 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 31, 2021 1:02 am

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:Seems like a lot of coaching decisions here, particularly never going over screens.


Byron Scott was a big proponent of old school defense and was asking the guys to fight through screens. Kyrie literally stopped trying after some of those early injuries. He also stopped trying to draw contact on his drives as well and instead turned to his fancy finishes to get the ball in the hoop.

My point is two fold, here. I'm not saying I wouldn't prefer Collin to be a tough rugged defender who willingly threw his body around and was able to absorb blows, rather that there are other ways to run a defense without requiring guards to fight through screens, and that guards who outright refuse to do what's being asked of them can still end up getting maxed.

82games has updated their stats for the season, and one area Collin continues to stand out is in clutch situations shooting around 62 eFG% from pretty much anywhere on the floor. The problem is in terms of impact because he's not raising our team's offensive rating high enough to outscore opponents. He's giving up the ball and his teammates aren't efficient enough to keep up the offensive rating.

Similarly Irving also struggled with this early in his career until LeBron came home. Irving had a big came against Boston similar to how Collin beat Brooklyn, other teams around the league woke up and realized they needed to pay them extra attention. Get the ball out of their hands or make them try to score against 3 defenders and the Cavs lose.

There's a lot Collin could do to manipulate defenses in those situations, but it has a lot to do with where his teammates are at as well. The more they can keep their man honest and step up in the clutch, the easier time Collin will have making an impact.

We've gotten used to having a generational player on the team who would manage those situations and make the most of them whether we went with a shooting lineup, a defensive lineup, or a pickup team of D-Leaguers; but mere mortals need a lot more help.
Going through screens is different than going over screens. Now that we have Allen our guards can and should sell out trying to deny the three point shot even if that means making Allen assume responsibility for both players on the drive.

But in addition to being the second worst team in made threes, we're the second worst team in the NBA in terms of opponents 3 point percentage and that cannot continue. You're never going to be a winning team if you're trading 2 points for 3.

I don't want to say that fans on this board overvalue our players, but they do overvalue a status quo that has the team losing 60 games a season, three seasons in a row, and more often than not, losing those games by a wide margin. Internal growth is very unlikely to solve the Cavs issues on its own.


The whole team simply needs to get better, get deeper, continue to add talent, build chemistry, learn systems, learn to play off each other, etc, etc.

Jason Lloyd expressed some of the same impatience you are in his recent Athletic article, but most players are not done developing and evolving at 21/22 years old. That many players only become valuable on their 2nd or 3rd contract on their 2nd or 3rd team is a huge impediment in our path trying to rebuild through the draft.

Maybe if we'd hired a coach who could extract effort out of players we could have won the 6th seed like Knicks did by scraping together NBA veterans and free agents signing a 1yr prove it deal; but we're won a championship a few years back. We don't need a panacea. We need to build talent, and when we find the right pieces ... maybe ... just maybe we'll have the talent and depth to make a real run.
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#46 » by jbk1234 » Mon May 31, 2021 1:36 am

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Byron Scott was a big proponent of old school defense and was asking the guys to fight through screens. Kyrie literally stopped trying after some of those early injuries. He also stopped trying to draw contact on his drives as well and instead turned to his fancy finishes to get the ball in the hoop.

My point is two fold, here. I'm not saying I wouldn't prefer Collin to be a tough rugged defender who willingly threw his body around and was able to absorb blows, rather that there are other ways to run a defense without requiring guards to fight through screens, and that guards who outright refuse to do what's being asked of them can still end up getting maxed.

82games has updated their stats for the season, and one area Collin continues to stand out is in clutch situations shooting around 62 eFG% from pretty much anywhere on the floor. The problem is in terms of impact because he's not raising our team's offensive rating high enough to outscore opponents. He's giving up the ball and his teammates aren't efficient enough to keep up the offensive rating.

Similarly Irving also struggled with this early in his career until LeBron came home. Irving had a big came against Boston similar to how Collin beat Brooklyn, other teams around the league woke up and realized they needed to pay them extra attention. Get the ball out of their hands or make them try to score against 3 defenders and the Cavs lose.

There's a lot Collin could do to manipulate defenses in those situations, but it has a lot to do with where his teammates are at as well. The more they can keep their man honest and step up in the clutch, the easier time Collin will have making an impact.

We've gotten used to having a generational player on the team who would manage those situations and make the most of them whether we went with a shooting lineup, a defensive lineup, or a pickup team of D-Leaguers; but mere mortals need a lot more help.
Going through screens is different than going over screens. Now that we have Allen our guards can and should sell out trying to deny the three point shot even if that means making Allen assume responsibility for both players on the drive.

But in addition to being the second worst team in made threes, we're the second worst team in the NBA in terms of opponents 3 point percentage and that cannot continue. You're never going to be a winning team if you're trading 2 points for 3.

I don't want to say that fans on this board overvalue our players, but they do overvalue a status quo that has the team losing 60 games a season, three seasons in a row, and more often than not, losing those games by a wide margin. Internal growth is very unlikely to solve the Cavs issues on its own.


The whole team simply needs to get better, get deeper, continue to add talent, build chemistry, learn systems, learn to play off each other, etc, etc.

Jason Lloyd expressed some of the same impatience you are in his recent Athletic article, but most players are not done developing and evolving at 21/22 years old. That many players only become valuable on their 2nd or 3rd contract on their 2nd or 3rd team is a huge impediment in our path trying to rebuild through the draft.

Maybe if we'd hired a coach who could extract effort out of players we could have won the 6th seed like Knicks did by scraping together NBA veterans and free agents signing a 1yr prove it deal; but we're won a championship a few years back. We don't need a panacea. We need to build talent, and when we find the right pieces ... maybe ... just maybe we'll have the talent and depth to make a real run.
I'm not suggesting that guys are done developing at 22. But clear eyed assessments that don't rely solely upon the most optimistic projections of young guys are important. This is particularly the case if you're talking about paying players before you need to. If you've seen zero improvement from a player on one end of the court in three years, that needs to be a concern. This is particularly the case where you're undersized 1-3.

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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#47 » by Stillwater » Mon May 31, 2021 3:57 am

jbk1234 wrote:
Stillwater wrote:Sexton might not be worth a max right now but the residual of paying him is a gamble worth taking imo.
Extending him now is stupid and most of the people posting here know it. If he plays his way into max status his 4th year, then you make the maximum Q.O. next summer.

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there is nothing stupid about locking him up unless you think he is who he is which is the only thing bordering on stupid or if anything given his desire to improve being above average that anyone would bet against him is senseless.
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#48 » by jbk1234 » Mon May 31, 2021 4:29 am

Stillwater wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Stillwater wrote:Sexton might not be worth a max right now but the residual of paying him is a gamble worth taking imo.
Extending him now is stupid and most of the people posting here know it. If he plays his way into max status his 4th year, then you make the maximum Q.O. next summer.

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there is nothing stupid about locking him up unless you think he is who he is which is the only thing bordering on stupid or if anything given his desire to improve being above average that anyone would bet against him is senseless.
He's already locked up. The Cavs can match any offer next summer. It's stupid.

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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#49 » by Stillwater » Mon May 31, 2021 4:45 am

jbk1234 wrote:
Stillwater wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:Extending him now is stupid and most of the people posting here know it. If he plays his way into max status his 4th year, then you make the maximum Q.O. next summer.

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there is nothing stupid about locking him up unless you think he is who he is which is the only thing bordering on stupid or if anything given his desire to improve being above average that anyone would bet against him is senseless.
He's already locked up. The Cavs can match any offer next summer. It's stupid.

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KPJ ordeal was stupid remember the one that was drafted by the same guy that let him go for nothing so whatever they do could prove stupid,\ if it does not include paying him. I am not sold it will matter as long as they keep Sexton around even if there are smarter avenues. I am good with them showing commitment to their players to establish trust again.
I doubt therefore he continues to let other young players go just for a few concerns about $ unless Sexton suddenly start drinking and driving or punching females/
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#50 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 31, 2021 3:14 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:Going through screens is different than going over screens. Now that we have Allen our guards can and should sell out trying to deny the three point shot even if that means making Allen assume responsibility for both players on the drive.

But in addition to being the second worst team in made threes, we're the second worst team in the NBA in terms of opponents 3 point percentage and that cannot continue. You're never going to be a winning team if you're trading 2 points for 3.

I don't want to say that fans on this board overvalue our players, but they do overvalue a status quo that has the team losing 60 games a season, three seasons in a row, and more often than not, losing those games by a wide margin. Internal growth is very unlikely to solve the Cavs issues on its own.


The whole team simply needs to get better, get deeper, continue to add talent, build chemistry, learn systems, learn to play off each other, etc, etc.

Jason Lloyd expressed some of the same impatience you are in his recent Athletic article, but most players are not done developing and evolving at 21/22 years old. That many players only become valuable on their 2nd or 3rd contract on their 2nd or 3rd team is a huge impediment in our path trying to rebuild through the draft.

Maybe if we'd hired a coach who could extract effort out of players we could have won the 6th seed like Knicks did by scraping together NBA veterans and free agents signing a 1yr prove it deal; but we're won a championship a few years back. We don't need a panacea. We need to build talent, and when we find the right pieces ... maybe ... just maybe we'll have the talent and depth to make a real run.
I'm not suggesting that guys are done developing at 22. But clear eyed assessments that don't rely solely upon the most optimistic projections of young guys are important. This is particularly the case if you're talking about paying players before you need to. If you've seen zero improvement from a player on one end of the court in three years, that needs to be a concern. This is particularly the case where you're undersized 1-3.


I've been pushing back against one single point you made, that if we overpay Collin we will set our rebuild back for years.

We can take your assessment as fact and still explore whether there's any precedent for your worst case scenario.

That's why I asked if you could think of a comparable player that turned out as badly as you fear?

Or name a team that chose to send their high scoring + efficient 21 year old in to restricted free-agency, and we can explore how that worked out for them?
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#51 » by jbk1234 » Mon May 31, 2021 6:04 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
The whole team simply needs to get better, get deeper, continue to add talent, build chemistry, learn systems, learn to play off each other, etc, etc.

Jason Lloyd expressed some of the same impatience you are in his recent Athletic article, but most players are not done developing and evolving at 21/22 years old. That many players only become valuable on their 2nd or 3rd contract on their 2nd or 3rd team is a huge impediment in our path trying to rebuild through the draft.

Maybe if we'd hired a coach who could extract effort out of players we could have won the 6th seed like Knicks did by scraping together NBA veterans and free agents signing a 1yr prove it deal; but we're won a championship a few years back. We don't need a panacea. We need to build talent, and when we find the right pieces ... maybe ... just maybe we'll have the talent and depth to make a real run.
I'm not suggesting that guys are done developing at 22. But clear eyed assessments that don't rely solely upon the most optimistic projections of young guys are important. This is particularly the case if you're talking about paying players before you need to. If you've seen zero improvement from a player on one end of the court in three years, that needs to be a concern. This is particularly the case where you're undersized 1-3.


I've been pushing back against one single point you made, that if we overpay Collin we will set our rebuild back for years.

We can take your assessment as fact and still explore whether there's any precedent for your worst case scenario.

That's why I asked if you could think of a comparable player that turned out as badly as you fear?

Or name a team that chose to send their high scoring + efficient 21 year old in to restricted free-agency, and we can explore how that worked out for them?
Most recently? Wiggins and Heild.

Edit: just reread the question, but both Collins and Ball are entering RFA this summer. Last summer Bogs was signed for around $15M per which the Kings should've matched. Before that Bogdan should've been matched and wasn't so the Pacers got him on a team friendly deal. Overall, if an agent is seeking the most he can get, you're far better off allowing a good but flawed player to test the market, match, and then trading him downstream if the relationship is rocky.
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#52 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 31, 2021 7:22 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:I'm not suggesting that guys are done developing at 22. But clear eyed assessments that don't rely solely upon the most optimistic projections of young guys are important. This is particularly the case if you're talking about paying players before you need to. If you've seen zero improvement from a player on one end of the court in three years, that needs to be a concern. This is particularly the case where you're undersized 1-3.


I've been pushing back against one single point you made, that if we overpay Collin we will set our rebuild back for years.

We can take your assessment as fact and still explore whether there's any precedent for your worst case scenario.

That's why I asked if you could think of a comparable player that turned out as badly as you fear?

Or name a team that chose to send their high scoring + efficient 21 year old in to restricted free-agency, and we can explore how that worked out for them?
Most recently? Wiggins and Heild.


Recent is nice, but accurate would be best.

Buddy Hield was older than Collin Sexton is now before he played his first game in the league.

Wiggins is a little more interesting, but I'd say the least of his problems is his defense which at least is approaching passable on the Warriors. The Warriors finished with the 5th best defense which is hard to do with a true black hole on D. Where Andrew has always come up short is with his mental approach and efficiency. But just 25, he's improved some as you expect from a player entering his prime. He got his TS% "all the way" up to 56.8% this season putting him almost up there where Collin has been these last two seasons as the Cavs #1 option.

So, the comps are not good, Hield too old, Wiggins almost the opposite of Collin in some ways.

But what about the damage?

I don't think signing those players threw those rebuild off the rails, I see lots of other problems with their rebuilds (typical); and fwiw, Hield has a declining contract that goes down to $18.5M by the end of the deal.
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#53 » by jbk1234 » Mon May 31, 2021 7:42 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
I've been pushing back against one single point you made, that if we overpay Collin we will set our rebuild back for years.

We can take your assessment as fact and still explore whether there's any precedent for your worst case scenario.

That's why I asked if you could think of a comparable player that turned out as badly as you fear?

Or name a team that chose to send their high scoring + efficient 21 year old in to restricted free-agency, and we can explore how that worked out for them?
Most recently? Wiggins and Heild.


Recent is nice, but accurate would be best.

Buddy Hield was older than Collin Sexton is now before he played his first game in the league.

Wiggins is a little more interesting, but I'd say the least of his problems is his defense which at least is approaching passable on the Warriors. The Warriors finished with the 5th best defense which is hard to do with a true black hole on D. Where Andrew has always come up short is with his mental approach and efficiency. But just 25, he's improved some as you expect from a player entering his prime. He got his TS% "all the way" up to 56.8% this season putting him almost up there where Collin has been these last two seasons as the Cavs #1 option.

So, the comps are not good, Hield too old, Wiggins almost the opposite of Collin in some ways.

But what about the damage?

I don't think signing those players threw those rebuild off the rails, I see lots of other problems with their rebuilds (typical); and fwiw, Hield has a declining contract that goes down to $18.5M by the end of the deal.
I think it's pretty inarguable that neither player would've gotten those contracts if their teams had them play out their fourth years first. The Kings watched Bogs walk for nothing, on a team-friendly deal, because they couldn't give Buddy away and he got two-thirds of what Sexton's agent is looking for. The ramifications for the Wolves are pretty self evident. Wiggins never got better and they had to attach a lightly protected 1st to swap him for an equally flawed player on an equally bad contract.



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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#54 » by JonFromVA » Tue Jun 1, 2021 1:37 am

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:Most recently? Wiggins and Heild.


Recent is nice, but accurate would be best.

Buddy Hield was older than Collin Sexton is now before he played his first game in the league.

Wiggins is a little more interesting, but I'd say the least of his problems is his defense which at least is approaching passable on the Warriors. The Warriors finished with the 5th best defense which is hard to do with a true black hole on D. Where Andrew has always come up short is with his mental approach and efficiency. But just 25, he's improved some as you expect from a player entering his prime. He got his TS% "all the way" up to 56.8% this season putting him almost up there where Collin has been these last two seasons as the Cavs #1 option.

So, the comps are not good, Hield too old, Wiggins almost the opposite of Collin in some ways.

But what about the damage?

I don't think signing those players threw those rebuild off the rails, I see lots of other problems with their rebuilds (typical); and fwiw, Hield has a declining contract that goes down to $18.5M by the end of the deal.
I think it's pretty inarguable that neither player would've gotten those contracts if their teams had them play out their fourth years first. The Kings watched Bogs walk for nothing, on a team-friendly deal, because they couldn't give Buddy away and he got two-thirds of what Sexton's agent is looking for. The ramifications for the Wolves are pretty self evident. Wiggins never got better and they had to attach a lightly protected 1st to swap him for an equally flawed player on an equally bad contract.


Wiggins might have gotten a big offer from a stupid GM because just like when he was drafted he fit the profile of what they want (other than between the ears). Hield's offer, otoh, wasn't a max it was just 4/94. So who knows? Probably not too far off, but otoh, we can't know what would have happened if they weren't signed and I seriously doubt due to other bad decisions whether the Kings or the TWolves would have been much better off.

I mean, the TWolves were up against a barrel with Anthony-Towns. They felt they could keep him on board by trading for D'Angelo Russell ... something I would not had done, but KAT is locked up through 2024 so technically they accomplished their goal.

But again, neither is a good comp for Sexton. If BBR didn't put their player finder behind a pay wall, I'd try to find a better comp, but stuck with my memory all I've got is Kyrie. He had a similar level of scoring success and efficiency at the same age, he stunk on defense AND unlike Collin didn't care, he was more crafty with the ball than speedy and he had better vision.

Was he worth the max? Absolutely, especially when paired with James who could make up for his deficiencies at running a team.

But like I said with the TWolves and Kings, it's often all those other decisions that ruin a rebuild. For the Cavs, we've basically clobbered any flexibility we should have by exposing the flaws of our players rather than playing to their strengths. If we could get great value for Collin and snag a player that would better fit our team, I'd trade him in a heartbeat; but I'm not interested in seeing the team take a step backwards because they're afraid to take a risk that a promising player will continue to improve.
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#55 » by jbk1234 » Tue Jun 1, 2021 3:07 am

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Recent is nice, but accurate would be best.

Buddy Hield was older than Collin Sexton is now before he played his first game in the league.

Wiggins is a little more interesting, but I'd say the least of his problems is his defense which at least is approaching passable on the Warriors. The Warriors finished with the 5th best defense which is hard to do with a true black hole on D. Where Andrew has always come up short is with his mental approach and efficiency. But just 25, he's improved some as you expect from a player entering his prime. He got his TS% "all the way" up to 56.8% this season putting him almost up there where Collin has been these last two seasons as the Cavs #1 option.

So, the comps are not good, Hield too old, Wiggins almost the opposite of Collin in some ways.

But what about the damage?

I don't think signing those players threw those rebuild off the rails, I see lots of other problems with their rebuilds (typical); and fwiw, Hield has a declining contract that goes down to $18.5M by the end of the deal.
I think it's pretty inarguable that neither player would've gotten those contracts if their teams had them play out their fourth years first. The Kings watched Bogs walk for nothing, on a team-friendly deal, because they couldn't give Buddy away and he got two-thirds of what Sexton's agent is looking for. The ramifications for the Wolves are pretty self evident. Wiggins never got better and they had to attach a lightly protected 1st to swap him for an equally flawed player on an equally bad contract.


Wiggins might have gotten a big offer from a stupid GM because just like when he was drafted he fit the profile of what they want (other than between the ears). Hield's offer, otoh, wasn't a max it was just 4/94. So who knows? Probably not too far off, but otoh, we can't know what would have happened if they weren't signed and I seriously doubt due to other bad decisions whether the Kings or the TWolves would have been much better off.

I mean, the TWolves were up against a barrel with Anthony-Towns. They felt they could keep him on board by trading for D'Angelo Russell ... something I would not had done, but KAT is locked up through 2024 so technically they accomplished their goal.

But again, neither is a good comp for Sexton. If BBR didn't put their player finder behind a pay wall, I'd try to find a better comp, but stuck with my memory all I've got is Kyrie. He had a similar level of scoring success and efficiency at the same age, he stunk on defense AND unlike Collin didn't care, he was more crafty with the ball than speedy and he had better vision.

Was he worth the max? Absolutely, especially when paired with James who could make up for his deficiencies at running a team.

But like I said with the TWolves and Kings, it's often all those other decisions that ruin a rebuild. For the Cavs, we've basically clobbered any flexibility we should have by exposing the flaws of our players rather than playing to their strengths. If we could get great value for Collin and snag a player that would better fit our team, I'd trade him in a heartbeat; but I'm not interested in seeing the team take a step backwards because they're afraid to take a risk that a promising player will continue to improve.
My point, and I really can't stress this enough, is that it's a players' league, teams have very few advantages under the current CBA, but waiting to match is one of them. Had either team waited, they would've been in a much, much better position.

Agents get this. Good front offices get it. Bad front offices don't.

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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#56 » by toooskies » Tue Jun 1, 2021 3:30 am

Sexton’s performance so far is probably somewhere in between the careers of Zach Lavine on the low end and Booker/Mitchell on the high end, if you’re looking at positive comps for shooting guards. And that’s the realistic/optimistic landing spot for his second contract, competing for an all-star spot.

Downside comp might be a guy like Reggie Jackson? Most guards that score a lot early but flame out are low-efficiency high-volume guys, but that doesn’t describe Sexton.

The argument for extending Sexton now is that he’s a guy with all-star potential now and if he’s in all-star discussions next year, his RFA offers might be higher than what we offer this off-season. Ideally the Cavs offer a Lavine-like deal now for $20-25m per year neighborhood. But if he turns it down and plays at an all-star level, you might have to max him to keep him.
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#57 » by jbk1234 » Tue Jun 1, 2021 2:38 pm

toooskies wrote:Sexton’s performance so far is probably somewhere in between the careers of Zach Lavine on the low end and Booker/Mitchell on the high end, if you’re looking at positive comps for shooting guards. And that’s the realistic/optimistic landing spot for his second contract, competing for an all-star spot.

Downside comp might be a guy like Reggie Jackson? Most guards that score a lot early but flame out are low-efficiency high-volume guys, but that doesn’t describe Sexton.

The argument for extending Sexton now is that he’s a guy with all-star potential now and if he’s in all-star discussions next year, his RFA offers might be higher than what we offer this off-season. Ideally the Cavs offer a Lavine-like deal now for $20-25m per year neighborhood. But if he turns it down and plays at an all-star level, you might have to max him to keep him.
Most front offices presently have him as a sixth man. There are three teams who have the personnel to start him. Among those teams, only the Knicks might have the money to make a max offer, which can't be longer than 4 years and would have smaller raises. Extending him early is dumb.

He's already averaging 18 FGA per game. That's a lot. There aren't going to be a bunch of additional shots available to him. Trae Young is forcing the NBA to revisit the issue of foul hunting and Silver is talking about a rule change. Unless the improvement comes on the defensive side of the ball, he may already be pretty close to his ceiling.

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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#58 » by KuruptedCav » Tue Jun 1, 2021 2:41 pm

toooskies wrote:Sexton’s performance so far is probably somewhere in between the careers of Zach Lavine on the low end and Booker/Mitchell on the high end, if you’re looking at positive comps for shooting guards. And that’s the realistic/optimistic landing spot for his second contract, competing for an all-star spot.

Downside comp might be a guy like Reggie Jackson? Most guards that score a lot early but flame out are low-efficiency high-volume guys, but that doesn’t describe Sexton.

The argument for extending Sexton now is that he’s a guy with all-star potential now and if he’s in all-star discussions next year, his RFA offers might be higher than what we offer this off-season. Ideally the Cavs offer a Lavine-like deal now for $20-25m per year neighborhood. But if he turns it down and plays at an all-star level, you might have to max him to keep him.

That’s where I am. I have zero problem with an extension in the $20-$25 million range.

I think the Lou Williams/Jordan Clarkson comparisons are so far off base that they are stealing second.

19% of the salary cap seems like a fair range for him. I think fair value is 4r and $85mil. I personally like 4yr/$90mil, even 5 years and $120 mil and I would cringe but be okay.

My objection is talk of a max contract early. In that scenario, there is no downside of going to RFA. The gulf between the contracts above and a max is $50 million and a lot of team building flexibility.


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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#59 » by JonFromVA » Tue Jun 1, 2021 2:44 pm

toooskies wrote:Sexton’s performance so far is probably somewhere in between the careers of Zach Lavine on the low end and Booker/Mitchell on the high end, if you’re looking at positive comps for shooting guards. And that’s the realistic/optimistic landing spot for his second contract, competing for an all-star spot.

Downside comp might be a guy like Reggie Jackson? Most guards that score a lot early but flame out are low-efficiency high-volume guys, but that doesn’t describe Sexton.

The argument for extending Sexton now is that he’s a guy with all-star potential now and if he’s in all-star discussions next year, his RFA offers might be higher than what we offer this off-season. Ideally the Cavs offer a Lavine-like deal now for $20-25m per year neighborhood. But if he turns it down and plays at an all-star level, you might have to max him to keep him.


I think your high-end range is a better fit for Sexton's full-range. The sticking point is always going to be height. If Collin was 3" taller, nobody would take issue with him playing SG or worry about his defense as much. On the flip side, Collin has elite speed which sets him apart from some of those guys and Kyrie as well and leans the comp more towards Jackson or even Monta Ellis but they were not doing what Collin is doing at his age.

If we had a big who could run a team, we'd be a lot less concerned with Collin playing PG.

If we can somehow draft Cade, we'd have all the options on the table. We might even be able to justify trading Garland who seems to have higher value around the league for a piece that would let us start Cade/Okoro/Sexton.

11% chance of that?

Things will not likely be so easy for this rebuild, but at some point the Cavs need to address roster construction.
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Re: poll if 7th 

Post#60 » by KuruptedCav » Tue Jun 1, 2021 3:20 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:Sexton’s performance so far is probably somewhere in between the careers of Zach Lavine on the low end and Booker/Mitchell on the high end, if you’re looking at positive comps for shooting guards. And that’s the realistic/optimistic landing spot for his second contract, competing for an all-star spot.

Downside comp might be a guy like Reggie Jackson? Most guards that score a lot early but flame out are low-efficiency high-volume guys, but that doesn’t describe Sexton.

The argument for extending Sexton now is that he’s a guy with all-star potential now and if he’s in all-star discussions next year, his RFA offers might be higher than what we offer this off-season. Ideally the Cavs offer a Lavine-like deal now for $20-25m per year neighborhood. But if he turns it down and plays at an all-star level, you might have to max him to keep him.


I think your high-end range is a better fit for Sexton's full-range. The sticking point is always going to be height. If Collin was 3" taller, nobody would take issue with him playing SG or worry about his defense as much. On the flip side, Collin has elite speed which sets him apart from some of those guys and Kyrie as well and leans the comp more towards Jackson or even Monta Ellis but they were not doing what Collin is doing at his age.

If we had a big who could run a team, we'd be a lot less concerned with Collin playing PG.

If we can somehow draft Cade, we'd have all the options on the table. We might even be able to justify Garland who seems to have higher value around the league for a piece that would let us start Cade/Okoro/Sexton.

11% chance of that?

Things will not likely be so easy for this rebuild, but at some point the Cavs need to address roster construction.

At some point the Cavs need to address their leadership hierarchy.

Maybe after the Browns win the Super Bowl Paul DePodesta can try his hand at basketball.


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