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JonFromVA wrote:I was pondering if Russell Westbrook had ever learned to run a team (not just fill the box score) that his career would be aging a lot better ... ala Andre Miller. Miller wasn't doing anything flashy at 33 and would eventually transition to a bench role, but because like Rubio he knew how to run a team and wasn't afraid to play defense - he generally sustained a positive impact.

As for Ricky, he too may be able to extend his career even after this latest injury and having started playing pro ball so young. The key is that he's already accepting coming off the bench.

But back to Andre, it got me wondering what he was up to and I found this article about Andre and his early days with the Cavs I hadn't read before:

https://www.nba.com/cavaliers/features/wherearethey-miller-201210

He admits he didn't really want to leave the Cavs and wasn't as concerned about money as the reports at the time made it out, he was just following the advice of his agent rather than his heart. Seems he has some regrets about that, especially about not being around to play with LeBron.

Albeit ... if Andre stayed there's a fair chance we win more than 19 games ...

Mobley is why I'm okay with Drummond flaking out last season.

As far as Westbrook, I don't know if it was ever possible for him to learn to play at different speeds, but it's certainly late in the game now. Whether it's AI, Wall, Westbrook, etc. guards who rely primarily on elite speed to beat their defenders to spots usually don't want to give that up, and it's not clear that if they did, they'd still be good players. Slowing down doesn't guarantee you good court vision, it only guarantees you better court vision. If you sacrifice your biggest advantage while doing so, whether that works out better for you, or the offense as a whole, is uncertain.

Andre was never that player even while younger. It's why I'm okay with the Cavs trading Sexton for whatever they can get. Maybe he can learn to play in second gear when necessary, but I'm skeptical and it's going to be a really bumpy ride over an uncertain time horizon just trying to get there.

jbk1234 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:I was pondering if Russell Westbrook had ever learned to run a team (not just fill the box score) that his career would be aging a lot better ... ala Andre Miller. Miller wasn't doing anything flashy at 33 and would eventually transition to a bench role, but because like Rubio he knew how to run a team and wasn't afraid to play defense - he generally sustained a positive impact.

As for Ricky, he too may be able to extend his career even after this latest injury and having started playing pro ball so young. The key is that he's already accepting coming off the bench.

But back to Andre, it got me wondering what he was up to and I found this article about Andre and his early days with the Cavs I hadn't read before:

https://www.nba.com/cavaliers/features/wherearethey-miller-201210

He admits he didn't really want to leave the Cavs and wasn't as concerned about money as the reports at the time made it out, he was just following the advice of his agent rather than his heart. Seems he has some regrets about that, especially about not being around to play with LeBron.

Albeit ... if Andre stayed there's a fair chance we win more than 19 games ...

Mobley is why I'm okay with Drummond flaking out last season.

As far as Westbrook, I don't know if it was ever possible for him to learn to play at different speeds, but it's certainly late in the game now. Whether it's AI, Wall, Westbrook, etc. guards who rely primarily on elite speed to beat their defenders to spots usually don't want to give that up, and it's not clear that if they did, they'd still be good players. Slowing down doesn't guarantee you good court vision, it only guarantees you better court vision. If you sacrifice your biggest advantage while doing so, whether that works out better for you, or the offense as a whole, is uncertain.

Andre was never that player even while younger. It's why I'm okay with the Cavs trading Sexton for whatever they can get. Maybe he can learn to play in second gear when necessary, but I'm skeptical and it's going to be a really bumpy ride over an uncertain time horizon just trying to get there.

It's mental and because it's mental it's unlikely (albeit not impossible) Russ will ever change, as for Collin, your skepticism is warranted but there's a process that's only starting to play out in his case. As long as he's receptive to doing what he needs to do to help a team win, there's a chance he will do what he needs to do to adapt his game. Russ seems to enjoy doing what he does and he's going to receive $47M to keep doing whatever he wants next season. Collin hasn't earned that big pay day yet and desperately wants to win. So, there's already some friction to get Collin heading in a positive direction.

Also keep in mind Tony Parker and Chris Paul were two of the quickest guards in the league early in their career before being shoved aside by Rose, Wall, Westbrook, etc. They've both expanded their game as they went along and extended their careers. It was more obvious CP3 would do so, but Parker was primarily just a missile early in his career and was a crazy good finisher around the rim.

On the Nets board we're encouraging our fans to vote for Jarrett Allen in the all star game. I hope he makes it

MrDollarBills wrote:On the Nets board we're encouraging our fans to vote for Jarrett Allen in the all star game. I hope he makes it

Thanks, you guys gave him a classy send off when he was traded here. We all get why, now, and we're all especially glad the way he finished off last season after coming back from injury isn't anything like how he's looked since signing his contract.

With the game in Cleveland, it just seems like someone has to come through and make sure Allen is there to represent the Cavs. Lots of competition at the guard spot, so don't know if Garland can make it; but the fan vote only counts for 1/3rd and the coaches still vote for the reserves.

Take a shot anytime JB Bickerstaff is ambivalent or complaining about something.

cavs4872 wrote:Take a shot anytime JB Bickerstaff is ambivalent or complaining about something.

One of the things fans fail to appreciate is how important chemistry, and maturity, both physical, and in terms of basketball IQ, matter.

Neither Okoro nor Mobley are old enough to buy a beer.

Garland, who is only 21, has not seen a team overplay the paint to the nth degree until tonight. They took away that tear drop, the passing lanes, and the lob. They sold out completely to the painted area. Okay, we have to figure out what action we want to play after that.

The Cavs have been pushed around before, but they were bullied tonight in the first half. It took them until the 4th quarter to start pushing back.

Rondo, somewhat like Rubio, is a guy who goes into a set with a plan. He missed Windler and others tonight as a result. Figuring out who you're playing with takes time.

I'm confident this team will get there, but we're green. It's one of the reasons I want this to develop organically. Now, if opposing teams sell out defending the paint, and we don't have an answer 10 games from now, I'll feel differently.

jbk1234 wrote:I'm confident this team will get there, but we're green. It's one of the reasons I want this to develop organically. Now, if opposing teams sell out defending the paint, and we don't have an answer 10 games from now, I'll feel differently.

Kinda depends if we're still starting a lineup with Lauri, Lamar, and Evan all shooting 30% from three.

Getting Isaac back would actually help. Might Dean Wade had played more physical? Knocked down some 3's? Dunno, but he's fallen outside the rotation for now. Certainly Ed Davis would have helped clean up our rebounding, but JBB didn't tag him either.

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Good to see Altman extended. He’s done a good job stabilizing the franchise.


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So... after beating up on the Jazz, the Cavs Net Rating is at +5.2 or 4th in the league and Basketball-Reference's playoff probability page has our expected record actually up a bit to 51-31 with a 33.3% chance to win the conference and a 14.1% chance to win the finals.

If somehow things actually workout by the numbers, we're already a legit contender and should be considering high-level stuff like what will give us an advantage in a matchup .vs. other top contenders.

Hard to believe, but that's what the numbers say.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

Of course this all relies on our current strength of schedule, and our remaining strength of schedule. Alas, these stats can't keep up with mundane stuff like who's been in or out in the game's we've played.

JonFromVA wrote:So... after beating up on the Jazz, the Cavs Net Rating is at +5.2 or 4th in the league and Basketball-Reference's playoff probability page has our expected record actually up a bit to 51-31 with a 33.3% chance to win the conference and a 14.1% chance to win the finals.

If somehow things actually workout by the numbers, we're already a legit contender and should be considering high-level stuff like what will give us an advantage in a matchup .vs. other top contenders.

Hard to believe, but that's what the numbers say.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

Of course this all relies on our current strength of schedule, and our remaining strength of schedule. Alas, these stats can't keep up with mundane stuff like who's been in or out in the game's we've played.

The Knicks thought they were legit contenders after last year too and made a bunch of moves only to fall back to earth. I say wait till we see how things progress to start next year before making any big moves.

Revenged25 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:So... after beating up on the Jazz, the Cavs Net Rating is at +5.2 or 4th in the league and Basketball-Reference's playoff probability page has our expected record actually up a bit to 51-31 with a 33.3% chance to win the conference and a 14.1% chance to win the finals.

If somehow things actually workout by the numbers, we're already a legit contender and should be considering high-level stuff like what will give us an advantage in a matchup .vs. other top contenders.

Hard to believe, but that's what the numbers say.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

Of course this all relies on our current strength of schedule, and our remaining strength of schedule. Alas, these stats can't keep up with mundane stuff like who's been in or out in the game's we've played.

The Knicks thought they were legit contenders after last year too and made a bunch of moves only to fall back to earth. I say wait till we see how things progress to start next year before making any big moves.

If you'd asked me how I felt about the Knicks when they were making noise last year, I would have told you I was concerned Randle was having a career season all so conveniently in a contract year, that Thibs is the kind of coach who will get guys playing hard and get a short term boost, and that their success was being driven by their collection of 2010 Bulls far more than from their "young core" or their All-Star.

Not to mention, but thanks to Covid and not making the playoffs under Fizzdale, the Knicks had as much as 7 more months of rest than other teams entering that season.

The only warning sign I'd point out for the Cavs is how much our success has been tied to Ricky. We have to replace what he was doing for us and while Rondo may be part of the answer, but I don't think he's all of it. And then there are a few cautions, such as young players getting worn down and Kevin Love's ability to hold up with reduced minutes.

Did you know that according to our last weigh-in that Garland was 192 lbs? or 2lbs heavier than Collin or Ricky? He's currently playing through some back issues, but he may already be at his ideal playing weight. I worry about Evan too, but so far at least he's only bent, not broken.

Most of our players are far enough along to be ready for this, the crazy outlier is Evan Mobley ... but the kid is a crazy outlier and I'm not going to tell him he can't play a major role in the playoffs, or that he has no chance against a certain matchup when he adapts and learns so quickly.

We know all the reasons this team can fail, but leave the window slightly open to let them surprise you.

JonFromVA wrote:

Revenged25 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:So... after beating up on the Jazz, the Cavs Net Rating is at +5.2 or 4th in the league and Basketball-Reference's playoff probability page has our expected record actually up a bit to 51-31 with a 33.3% chance to win the conference and a 14.1% chance to win the finals.

If somehow things actually workout by the numbers, we're already a legit contender and should be considering high-level stuff like what will give us an advantage in a matchup .vs. other top contenders.

Hard to believe, but that's what the numbers say.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

Of course this all relies on our current strength of schedule, and our remaining strength of schedule. Alas, these stats can't keep up with mundane stuff like who's been in or out in the game's we've played.

The Knicks thought they were legit contenders after last year too and made a bunch of moves only to fall back to earth. I say wait till we see how things progress to start next year before making any big moves.

If you'd asked me how I felt about the Knicks when they were making noise last year, I would have told you I was concerned Randle was having a career season all so conveniently in a contract year, that Thibs is the kind of coach who will get guys playing hard and get a short term boost, and that their success was being driven by their collection of 2010 Bulls far more than from their "young core" or their All-Star.

Not to mention, but thanks to Covid and not making the playoffs under Fizzdale, the Knicks had as much as 7 more months of rest than other teams entering that season.

The only warning sign I'd point out for the Cavs is how much our success has been tied to Ricky. We have to replace what he was doing for us and while Rondo may be part of the answer, but I don't think he's all of it. And then there are a few cautions, such as young players getting worn down and Kevin Love's ability to hold up with reduced minutes.

Did you know that according to our last weigh-in that Garland was 192 lbs? or 2lbs heavier than Collin or Ricky? He's currently playing through some back issues, but he may already be at his ideal playing weight. I worry about Evan too, but so far at least he's only bent, not broken.

Most of our players are far enough along to be ready for this, the crazy outlier is Evan Mobley ... but the kid is a crazy outlier and I'm not going to tell him he can't play a major role in the playoffs, or that he has no chance against a certain matchup when he adapts and learns so quickly.

We know all the reasons this team can fail, but leave the window slightly open to let them surprise you.

I just don't think they are ready to consider themselves true contender this year. I think the Cavs are closer to the Suns 2 years ago than they are true contenders this year. They were a good young team led by Rubio/Booker/Oubre/Ayton but needed to develop more and just missed the playoffs after sweeping the bubble. They then made a move for a legit star caliber player in CP3 to replace Rubio, not a minimal upgrade, and ended up making the Finals and having the best record in the NBA so far.

The Cavs are a good young team that still needs to develop. I think just getting healthy next year with Sexton healthy, a healthy Rubio, etc, could have a similar effect to upgrading from Rubio to CP3 for the Cavs when you take into consideration the expected growth of Mobley, Allen, Garland, Sexton, Okoro, and eventual consistent performance of Lauri. Even then if the Cavs want to make a move, they should be looking to get a legit star caliber player to help make the leap, not some short sighted move that makes them better this year when they aren't going to win it all regardless only to be worse off when they might've been a legit contender.

Revenged25 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:

Revenged25 wrote:
The Knicks thought they were legit contenders after last year too and made a bunch of moves only to fall back to earth. I say wait till we see how things progress to start next year before making any big moves.

If you'd asked me how I felt about the Knicks when they were making noise last year, I would have told you I was concerned Randle was having a career season all so conveniently in a contract year, that Thibs is the kind of coach who will get guys playing hard and get a short term boost, and that their success was being driven by their collection of 2010 Bulls far more than from their "young core" or their All-Star.

Not to mention, but thanks to Covid and not making the playoffs under Fizzdale, the Knicks had as much as 7 more months of rest than other teams entering that season.

The only warning sign I'd point out for the Cavs is how much our success has been tied to Ricky. We have to replace what he was doing for us and while Rondo may be part of the answer, but I don't think he's all of it. And then there are a few cautions, such as young players getting worn down and Kevin Love's ability to hold up with reduced minutes.

Did you know that according to our last weigh-in that Garland was 192 lbs? or 2lbs heavier than Collin or Ricky? He's currently playing through some back issues, but he may already be at his ideal playing weight. I worry about Evan too, but so far at least he's only bent, not broken.

Most of our players are far enough along to be ready for this, the crazy outlier is Evan Mobley ... but the kid is a crazy outlier and I'm not going to tell him he can't play a major role in the playoffs, or that he has no chance against a certain matchup when he adapts and learns so quickly.

We know all the reasons this team can fail, but leave the window slightly open to let them surprise you.

I just don't think they are ready to consider themselves true contender this year. I think the Cavs are closer to the Suns 2 years ago than they are true contenders this year. They were a good young team led by Rubio/Booker/Oubre/Ayton but needed to develop more and just missed the playoffs after sweeping the bubble. They then made a move for a legit star caliber player in CP3 to replace Rubio, not a minimal upgrade, and ended up making the Finals and having the best record in the NBA so far.

The Cavs are a good young team that still needs to develop. I think just getting healthy next year with Sexton healthy, a healthy Rubio, etc, could have a similar effect to upgrading from Rubio to CP3 for the Cavs when you take into consideration the expected growth of Mobley, Allen, Garland, Sexton, Okoro, and eventual consistent performance of Lauri. Even then if the Cavs want to make a move, they should be looking to get a legit star caliber player to help make the leap, not some short sighted move that makes them better this year when they aren't going to win it all regardless only to be worse off when they might've been a legit contender.

The Suns that just went to the finals with CP3 had a Net Rtg of +5.9 (3rd in the NBA) driven by the 5th best offense and 9th best defense.

The Cavs have a net rating of +5.2 at the half way point of this season and our schedule is expected to become significantly easier. That's driven by the 13th ranked offense and the 3rd best defense. Amazing.

The *numbers* say we are already performing like a contender, and if we can improve our offense by fixing an obvious hole in it (secondary playmaker/scorer) at a reasonable price we should definitely do it. And keep in mind, depth is a problem. JBB struggles to use his bench, but if Altman makes a move which pushes Okoro, Stevens, or even Lauri out of the starting lineup that has the side effect of improving our bench depth.

Of course, any number of things can go wrong, but it's not unreasonable to consider all the things that could go right and clear our path to a deep playoff run or even a trip to the finals.

Not a single team has repeated as Eastern Conference champ since LeBron decided to go to LA ...

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A nice Sexton article:

https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2022/01/collin-sexton-on-schedule-in-recovery-from-knee-surgery-wont-rule-out-returning-if-cleveland-cavaliers-make-postseason.html

With the level of involvement Sexton has with the team despite the injury, I'd be shocked if he is moved or signs anywhere else in the offseason. It's one thing to do the rehab, it's another to be watching film with the team and going over game plans with coaches.

toooskies wrote:A nice Sexton article:

https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2022/01/collin-sexton-on-schedule-in-recovery-from-knee-surgery-wont-rule-out-returning-if-cleveland-cavaliers-make-postseason.html

With the level of involvement Sexton has with the team despite the injury, I'd be shocked if he is moved or signs anywhere else in the offseason. It's one thing to do the rehab, it's another to be watching film with the team and going over game plans with coaches.

If Sexton returns for the playoffs and plays great, his value around the league will explode ... but I suppose I'll take my chances with that given the boost it would give our team in the playoffs.

And honestly, it would answer our biggest question. If Collin can help us win on the biggest stage, the Cavs will pay him whatever it takes.

JonFromVA wrote:

toooskies wrote:A nice Sexton article:

https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2022/01/collin-sexton-on-schedule-in-recovery-from-knee-surgery-wont-rule-out-returning-if-cleveland-cavaliers-make-postseason.html

With the level of involvement Sexton has with the team despite the injury, I'd be shocked if he is moved or signs anywhere else in the offseason. It's one thing to do the rehab, it's another to be watching film with the team and going over game plans with coaches.

If Sexton returns for the playoffs and plays great, his value around the league will explode ... but I suppose I'll take my chances with that given the boost it would give our team in the playoffs.

And honestly, it would answer our biggest question. If Collin can help us win on the biggest stage, the Cavs will pay him whatever it takes.

Yeah, I'm not sure trying to force him back into the rotation in the playoffs is even a good idea. Sexton really needed this season to try to integrate himself into a structured offense. Personally, I thought the chances of him figuring it out were low, but if it happened, it would happen after like 40 games or so. The idea that he's going to just get it, with no margin for error and no time to adjust, during the playoffs, because we'd like that outcome, seems really optimistic. Like fantasyland optimistic.

jbk1234 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:

toooskies wrote:A nice Sexton article:

https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2022/01/collin-sexton-on-schedule-in-recovery-from-knee-surgery-wont-rule-out-returning-if-cleveland-cavaliers-make-postseason.html

With the level of involvement Sexton has with the team despite the injury, I'd be shocked if he is moved or signs anywhere else in the offseason. It's one thing to do the rehab, it's another to be watching film with the team and going over game plans with coaches.

If Sexton returns for the playoffs and plays great, his value around the league will explode ... but I suppose I'll take my chances with that given the boost it would give our team in the playoffs.

And honestly, it would answer our biggest question. If Collin can help us win on the biggest stage, the Cavs will pay him whatever it takes.

Yeah, I'm not sure trying to force him back into the rotation in the playoffs is even a good idea. Sexton really needed this season to try to integrate himself into a structured offense. Personally, I thought the chances of him figuring it out were low, but if it happened, it would happen after like 40 games or so. The idea that he's going to just get it, with no margin for error and no time to adjust, during the playoffs, because we'd like that outcome, seems really optimistic. Like fantasyland optimistic.

Or a perfect opportunity to trial him in the microwave role ... can't see him refusing to come off the bench. If we need that scoring punch and he isnt ready to give it ... oh well? Unless we make a trade we don't have another guard who can pretend to come off the bench and score a bunch of points.

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