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JonFromVA wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:
I really don't get this train of thought ... this is exactly how the Rockets lost a playoff game missing 27 3pters in a row.

Collin is struggling with his 3pt shot, of course his confidence in it isn't where it should be. He's barely shooting better than Evan who also decided to forgo shooting an open 3pter to attempt a drive in the game if I recall.

It's been a long road trip and everyone is a little dinged up, Collin being the latest victim of an ankle twist. Playing defense and running on offense the way they've been does take a toll.

Do we need reliable 3pt shooting? Yes, absolutely. The question for JBB is how to get there. We forced it out of Darius in one game by probably telling him the game was lost unless he could heat up and we let him shoot until he found the range; but that's not what JBB wants to normally do.

Most shooters need to get in a shooting rhythm. They can focus on getting to sweet spots and taking advantage of mid-range shots to help lock in the range/mechanics. Back before Morey ball it was conventional wisdom for a struggling shooter to take a step or two inside the 3pt line to get a slightly easier shot and then work his way back out to the 3pt line. This actually makes sense for shooters missing short due to fatigue.

Okay, but Jarrett Jack would do that and still clank it off the front of the rim.

Seriously though, if you're a guard who is wide open from three because you're man is helping on a teammate, you have to take that shot. Whether it actually goes in is secondary.

They're wide open because the defense doesn't think they can make the shot ... what makes you think the defense is wrong?

Spacing/gravity doesn't come from putting someone at the 3pt line, it comes from the certainty that they will sink a 3pter if not defended closely.

There was one play where best I could tell the Cavs screwed up because everyone but Evan started cutting to the rim at the same time; but it actually worked out because Mobley's defender slid off him to help, then Evan cut for an easy dunk.

In other words, even offensive chaos can be more productive than ineffective spacing and predictable bricking.

Does this need to change? Yes. Do we need to get our shooters going? Yes. Do we need to concede games because someone was encouraged to keep bricking 3pters? Heck, no.

Of course not. It’s just that his efficiency drops precipitously as the shot clock winds down and defenses use it as their 6th man.

I’ll take 24% shooting from 3 from Collin in the last 5 seconds of the clock than the 37% he gets driving at the end of the clock.

Collin’s problem has always been indecision, and then trying to overcome it with willpower and sheer athleticism and speed. His rookie year it should have been simplified, 2 seconds pass, shoot or drive. It wasn’t, and now it lingers.

Honestly, I don’t care which, it needs to move. If he drives earlier and hard, I’ll live with his 56% at the rim. If you let NBA defenses set, and wait you out, you will always play 5 on 6 and refs swallow whistles at the end of clocks.

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Neonblazer wrote:https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=697&GameID=0022100094&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=MISS%20Sexton%207%27%20Pullup%20Jump%20Shot&sct=plot

This was actually the play. I think the biggest problem here is that Sexton was positioned to shoot the 3 but decided otherwise. So when the play was to get that kind of shot off but the player decides not shoot it then its a problem. Actually at the end you can see both Markkanen and Garland waving their hands because they are open so it makes that decision that Sexton took even worse.

I'd love to see Sexton shoot that 3pter if he was confident in sinking it, but obviously he wasn't. The primary problem is his tunnel vision on the drive. He was intent on getting up a shot while Garland was coming around the perimeter unguarded. Even dumping it to Lauri would have at least gotten the D moving and likely ended up with the ball in Garland's hands. We may also be able to blame the refs here because Sexton completely faked Plumlee with his shot fake and any other year may have draw a shooting foul as he went up to shoot - but the angle of the replay isn't the best to see contact.

It's a lot easier to collapse 5 players in to the paint if you're sure the guys with the ball isn't going to pass it ... but hey, it's that Kobe attitude everyone loves ...

KuruptedCav wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:
Okay, but Jarrett Jack would do that and still clank it off the front of the rim.

Seriously though, if you're a guard who is wide open from three because you're man is helping on a teammate, you have to take that shot. Whether it actually goes in is secondary.

They're wide open because the defense doesn't think they can make the shot ... what makes you think the defense is wrong?

Spacing/gravity doesn't come from putting someone at the 3pt line, it comes from the certainty that they will sink a 3pter if not defended closely.

There was one play where best I could tell the Cavs screwed up because everyone but Evan started cutting to the rim at the same time; but it actually worked out because Mobley's defender slid off him to help, then Evan cut for an easy dunk.

In other words, even offensive chaos can be more productive than ineffective spacing and predictable bricking.

Does this need to change? Yes. Do we need to get our shooters going? Yes. Do we need to concede games because someone was encouraged to keep bricking 3pters? Heck, no.

Of course not. It’s just that his efficiency drops precipitously as the shot clock winds down and defenses use it as their 6th man.

I’ll take 24% shooting from 3 from Collin in the last 5 seconds of the clock than the 37% he gets driving at the end of the clock.

Collin’s problem has always been indecision, and then trying to overcome it with willpower and sheer athleticism and speed. His rookie year it should have been simplified, 2 seconds pass, shoot or drive. It wasn’t, and now it lingers.

Honestly, I don’t care which, it needs to move. If he drives earlier and hard, I’ll live with his 56% at the rim. If you let NBA defenses set, and wait you out, you will always play 5 on 6 and refs swallow whistles at the end of clocks.

The thing is, we're not shooting craps. Whether a shot goes in or not isn't dictated by odds, and in a late game situation like that what you really need to see is either the ball go in the basket or draw a foul and get to the line. If Collin scored 2pts we would have had 111 or enough to win the game.

So, even if we were playing a computer simulation, I'd actually take the 37% chance of a 2pter over the 24% chance of a 3pter ... and honestly given the way we've been shooting I might even take that 37% over an open look for Garland or a partially contested look for Markkenen.

It wasn't a good shot, but breaking it down like this Collin may have been justified if he was actually thinking it was our best shot to get 2 on the board and secure the win.

While we continue to nitpick the team, I just wanted to point out we've done a fantastic job on this road trip and coming out of it at 4-4 with the 12th ranked defense in the league is way above expectations.

The triple tower attack is working, Allen looks re-energized and his earning his contract. Evan is demonstrating everything we'd hoped to see. Lauri and his big contract is off to an awful start, but he hasn't killed the offense or destroyed the defense, so, it's got to get better, right?

Kudos!

JonFromVA wrote:

KuruptedCav wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:
They're wide open because the defense doesn't think they can make the shot ... what makes you think the defense is wrong?

Spacing/gravity doesn't come from putting someone at the 3pt line, it comes from the certainty that they will sink a 3pter if not defended closely.

There was one play where best I could tell the Cavs screwed up because everyone but Evan started cutting to the rim at the same time; but it actually worked out because Mobley's defender slid off him to help, then Evan cut for an easy dunk.

In other words, even offensive chaos can be more productive than ineffective spacing and predictable bricking.

Does this need to change? Yes. Do we need to get our shooters going? Yes. Do we need to concede games because someone was encouraged to keep bricking 3pters? Heck, no.

Of course not. It’s just that his efficiency drops precipitously as the shot clock winds down and defenses use it as their 6th man.

I’ll take 24% shooting from 3 from Collin in the last 5 seconds of the clock than the 37% he gets driving at the end of the clock.

Collin’s problem has always been indecision, and then trying to overcome it with willpower and sheer athleticism and speed. His rookie year it should have been simplified, 2 seconds pass, shoot or drive. It wasn’t, and now it lingers.

Honestly, I don’t care which, it needs to move. If he drives earlier and hard, I’ll live with his 56% at the rim. If you let NBA defenses set, and wait you out, you will always play 5 on 6 and refs swallow whistles at the end of clocks.

The thing is, we're not shooting craps. Whether a shot goes in or not isn't dictated by odds, and in a late game situation like that what you really need to see is either the ball go in the basket or draw a foul and get to the line. If Collin scored 2pts we would have had 111 or enough to win the game.

So, even if we were playing a computer simulation, I'd actually take the 37% chance of a 2pter over the 24% chance of a 3pter ... and honestly given the way we've been shooting I might even take that 37% over an open look for Garland or a partially contested look for Markkenen.

It wasn't a good shot, but breaking it down like this Collin may have been justified if he was actually thinking it was our best shot to get 2 on the board and secure the win.

I don’t have an issue with the drive on that play. I take issue with the play up to that point that telegraphed what he was going to do and forced him into a 7’ pull up jumper in the paint as his best option.

I’d expect him to force his way to the restricted area or pull up from somewhere with a clear shot. I’m okay with him missing and putting the onus on Allen, Mobley, and Markkenan to get the board. But, 7’ from the basket, with a big stepping stone your and your man under you, that is not going to end well.

Just like it would have been different if Mobley was pulling his guy to the basket instead of standing next to the key letting the help come to Collin without any risk to the Hornets. But, rookie mistakes.

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KuruptedCav wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:

KuruptedCav wrote:Of course not. It’s just that his efficiency drops precipitously as the shot clock winds down and defenses use it as their 6th man.

I’ll take 24% shooting from 3 from Collin in the last 5 seconds of the clock than the 37% he gets driving at the end of the clock.

Collin’s problem has always been indecision, and then trying to overcome it with willpower and sheer athleticism and speed. His rookie year it should have been simplified, 2 seconds pass, shoot or drive. It wasn’t, and now it lingers.

Honestly, I don’t care which, it needs to move. If he drives earlier and hard, I’ll live with his 56% at the rim. If you let NBA defenses set, and wait you out, you will always play 5 on 6 and refs swallow whistles at the end of clocks.

The thing is, we're not shooting craps. Whether a shot goes in or not isn't dictated by odds, and in a late game situation like that what you really need to see is either the ball go in the basket or draw a foul and get to the line. If Collin scored 2pts we would have had 111 or enough to win the game.

So, even if we were playing a computer simulation, I'd actually take the 37% chance of a 2pter over the 24% chance of a 3pter ... and honestly given the way we've been shooting I might even take that 37% over an open look for Garland or a partially contested look for Markkenen.

It wasn't a good shot, but breaking it down like this Collin may have been justified if he was actually thinking it was our best shot to get 2 on the board and secure the win.

I don’t have an issue with the drive on that play. I take issue with the play up to that point that telegraphed what he was going to do and forced him into a 7’ pull up jumper in the paint as his best option.

I’d expect him to force his way to the restricted area or pull up from somewhere with a clear shot. I’m okay with him missing and putting the onus on Allen, Mobley, and Markkenan to get the board. But, 7’ from the basket, with a big stepping stone your and your man under you, that is not going to end well.

Just like it would have been different if Mobley was pulling his guy to the basket instead of standing next to the key letting the help come to Collin without any risk to the Hornets. But, rookie mistakes.

A smarter teams would have involved more movement, getting Collin the ball on a cut or dribble hand-off setting some screens, etc, but sometimes you only ask of your players what you believe they can handle.

JonFromVA wrote:It wasn't a good shot, but breaking it down like this Collin may have been justified if he was actually thinking it was our best shot to get 2 on the board and secure the win.

It actually would've been a great shot last year as he had a defender up in the air and all he'd have to do is lean into him and he'd have gotten a foul called. It's just one more thing that Collin has to do differently this year-- there's one less escape route for him when he drives into traffic.

JonFromVA wrote:While we continue to nitpick the team, I just wanted to point out we've done a fantastic job on this road trip and coming out of it at 4-4 with the 12th ranked defense in the league is way above expectations.

The triple tower attack is working, Allen looks re-energized and his earning his contract. Evan is demonstrating everything we'd hoped to see. Lauri and his big contract is off to an awful start, but he hasn't killed the offense or destroyed the defense, so, it's got to get better, right?

Kudos!

Not only that but one of the harder schedules in the league. Every team we've played has playoff expectations at this point of the season. And that's with the entire team in a shooting slump, Lauri and Evan adjusting to a new position, Collin and Kevin adjusting to new roles, Lauri and Ricky adjusting to a new team, Evan adjusting to a new league, Darius and Isaac missing time with injuries, Jarrett not resting on his laurels despite the new contract, with two back-to-backs and a road game after a west-to-east cross-country trip, with no breaks of more than a day between games. It's been a rough schedule with very little rest/recovery time and 4-4 is way above expectations.

Very happy with the team thus far.

JonFromVA wrote:

KuruptedCav wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:
The thing is, we're not shooting craps. Whether a shot goes in or not isn't dictated by odds, and in a late game situation like that what you really need to see is either the ball go in the basket or draw a foul and get to the line. If Collin scored 2pts we would have had 111 or enough to win the game.

So, even if we were playing a computer simulation, I'd actually take the 37% chance of a 2pter over the 24% chance of a 3pter ... and honestly given the way we've been shooting I might even take that 37% over an open look for Garland or a partially contested look for Markkenen.

It wasn't a good shot, but breaking it down like this Collin may have been justified if he was actually thinking it was our best shot to get 2 on the board and secure the win.

I don’t have an issue with the drive on that play. I take issue with the play up to that point that telegraphed what he was going to do and forced him into a 7’ pull up jumper in the paint as his best option.

I’d expect him to force his way to the restricted area or pull up from somewhere with a clear shot. I’m okay with him missing and putting the onus on Allen, Mobley, and Markkenan to get the board. But, 7’ from the basket, with a big stepping stone your and your man under you, that is not going to end well.

Just like it would have been different if Mobley was pulling his guy to the basket instead of standing next to the key letting the help come to Collin without any risk to the Hornets. But, rookie mistakes.

A smarter teams would have involved more movement, getting Collin the ball on a cut or dribble hand-off setting some screens, etc, but sometimes you only ask of your players what you believe they can handle.

I really do respect your opinion, but for an entire host of reasons, this is the crazy part of the argument from Sexton apologists.

jbk1234 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:

KuruptedCav wrote:I don’t have an issue with the drive on that play. I take issue with the play up to that point that telegraphed what he was going to do and forced him into a 7’ pull up jumper in the paint as his best option.

I’d expect him to force his way to the restricted area or pull up from somewhere with a clear shot. I’m okay with him missing and putting the onus on Allen, Mobley, and Markkenan to get the board. But, 7’ from the basket, with a big stepping stone your and your man under you, that is not going to end well.

Just like it would have been different if Mobley was pulling his guy to the basket instead of standing next to the key letting the help come to Collin without any risk to the Hornets. But, rookie mistakes.

A smarter teams would have involved more movement, getting Collin the ball on a cut or dribble hand-off setting some screens, etc, but sometimes you only ask of your players what you believe they can handle.

I really do respect your opinion, but for an entire host of reasons, this is the crazy part of the argument from Sexton apologists.

Thanks, it's comments like this that let me know I'm doing it right.

When the Sexton haters and lovers both claim I'm leaning too hard to the other side, odds are I'm right on target.

JonFromVA wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:
A smarter teams would have involved more movement, getting Collin the ball on a cut or dribble hand-off setting some screens, etc, but sometimes you only ask of your players what you believe they can handle.

I really do respect your opinion, but for an entire host of reasons, this is the crazy part of the argument from Sexton apologists.

Thanks, it's comments like this that let me know I'm doing it right.

When the Sexton haters and lovers both claim I'm leaning too hard to the other side, odds are I'm right on target.

Sexton's teammates put him in a position to take a wide open 3 late in the game. He waited for his defender to come out on him so he could drive it into a lane that was collapsing the moment he started driving. If the response is that the team should run some plays for him in the last two minutes so he can drive into a lane that is going to have four defenders in it because they know that's what he wants to do, my reply is that's not good basketball.

jbk1234 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:
I really do respect your opinion, but for an entire host of reasons, this is the crazy part of the argument from Sexton apologists.

Thanks, it's comments like this that let me know I'm doing it right.

When the Sexton haters and lovers both claim I'm leaning too hard to the other side, odds are I'm right on target.

Sexton's teammates put him in a position to take a wide open 3 late in the game. He waited for his defender to come out on him so he could drive it into a lane that was collapsing the moment he started driving. If the response is that the team should run some plays for him in the last two minutes so he can drive into a lane that is going to have four defenders in it because they know that's what he wants to do, my reply is that's not good basketball.

No, my response was you live with what he did because that's what he and the team were capable of at that moment in time.

If Collin was shooting better, he should have taken the shot. If Darius or Lauri were shooting better, he should have passed it to them. If Ricky wasn't shooting 1-7 in the game, he should have been sent in to help get us a key basket. If this was last year, maybe Collin gets bailed out with a foul call.

If we were a well coached and experienced team, we could expect Collin or JBB to call a more complex play that would have better dealt with a defense packing the paint.

I try not to hold our players or the team to artificial standards. I try to understand what was going on and what they might have been thinking and that's a moving target as we consider more possibilities and learn more about what's happening behind the scenes. One of the podcasts for instance wondered if JBB left Rubio out of the game to give Sexland a rare opportunity to close a win. It's possible? It's also possible JBB didn't like how he was playing.

I try to treat this as a process of experience and discovery rather than an exercise of the surety of my own righteousness

So, feel free to shoot down any of these postulates and if you make a convincing argument, I'll gladly re-calibrate my conclusion.

For me it's just an instance of a young player still learning how to play. For all the complaining of Sexton passing up open shots, his per-possession 3pt attempts are up (from 6.2 to 6.7 per 100 possessions) and his fraction of 3pt shots is also up (from 24% of shots to 30% of shots) while his usage is down. He's taking more threes and dribbling into the lane... actually about the same amount, most of the shots he isn't taking this year relative to last are midrange shots.

toooskies wrote:For me it's just an instance of a young player still learning how to play. ... *snip*

That's a much more succinct way of putting it.

JonFromVA wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:

JonFromVA wrote:
Thanks, it's comments like this that let me know I'm doing it right.

When the Sexton haters and lovers both claim I'm leaning too hard to the other side, odds are I'm right on target.

Sexton's teammates put him in a position to take a wide open 3 late in the game. He waited for his defender to come out on him so he could drive it into a lane that was collapsing the moment he started driving. If the response is that the team should run some plays for him in the last two minutes so he can drive into a lane that is going to have four defenders in it because they know that's what he wants to do, my reply is that's not good basketball.

No, my response was you live with what he did because that's what he and the team were capable of at that moment in time.

If Collin was shooting better, he should have taken the shot. If Darius or Lauri were shooting better, he should have passed it to them. If Ricky wasn't shooting 1-7 in the game, he should have been sent in to help get us a key basket. If this was last year, maybe Collin gets bailed out with a foul call.

If we were a well coached and experienced team, we could expect Collin or JBB to call a more complex play that would have better dealt with a defense packing the paint.

I try not to hold our players or the team to artificial standards. I try to understand what was going on and what they might have been thinking and that's a moving target as we consider more possibilities and learn more about what's happening behind the scenes. One of the podcasts for instance wondered if JBB left Rubio out of the game to give Sexland a rare opportunity to close a win. It's possible? It's also possible JBB didn't like how he was playing.

I try to treat this as a process of experience and discovery rather than an exercise of the surety of my own righteousness

So, feel free to shoot down any of these postulates and if you make a convincing argument, I'll gladly re-calibrate my conclusion.

And in the same situation vs the Trailblazers last game, having hit 2/3 3pt shots he got the ball for an open 3 and fired away without thinking twice. Granted he missed it but I think you're right that Collin's decision to drive that game was due to how he had been shooting for the night and how confident he was with his shot.