jbk1234 wrote:toooskies wrote:jbk1234 wrote:
Or, Sexton's upside might be that of Reggie Jackson, Schroder, and or D Lo, all of whom were putting up similar numbers around his age and had similar games. In addition to his 18.4 FGAs he averaged 6.4 FTAs, and if he has the same struggles as the rest of the smaller guard contingent with the adjustment the NBA made, his efficiency could take a hit. Sexton was top 30 in the entire NBA in usage the same season and I just don't see how that's going to be possible going forward.
My worry is that according to advanced stats, he's about break even on the court when he's scoring at that level on that usage, and due to his other limitations, he'll fall below break even if he's asked to allow the ball to move more. I'd pay him to be a sixth man and live with the risk. If another team is willing to pay him to be an all star, I'd shake his hand and wish him well.
Sexton was better at a younger age at scoring than all those guys, in both volume and efficiency. And DLo, the only one particularly close, was an all-star.
He was better at some things and worse at others. Reggie Jackson's been a better defender and better at running an offense. D Lo is a more consistent outside shooter.
I just want to make sure you're comparing the first four years of those guys' careers, before they signed their contracts.
No one gets paid to be an average defender, and Reggie plays PG rather than SG, so he naturally gets opportunities for more (unearned) assists. But if you turned every assist Reggie has over Collin into a made 3-pointer, giving Jackson all the credit for creating someone else's made shot, you wouldn't reach Collin's 3rd year scoring point total in any season. (He gets close in his age 25 season, but that was right after he signed a 5y/$80m contract that, scaled to the current cap, was a 5y/$140m deal. He had turned down a 4-year, $48m deal, equivalent to a current 4y/$80m deal, from OKC the year prior after posting a 13/4/4 season on 29 minutes a game.) OKC traded him and may have regretted it. The media surrounding the $80m contract suggest it was an overpay. Both teams might have lost!
DLo is consistently average as an outside shooter, 35.6% career on high volume, with a lot of those shots off the dribble. In his first four years he had slightly higher volume than Sexton from three-- roughly 0.6 more makes per game. He's also consistently a below-average shooter inside the line, never having a year over 50% from two, which means he's never had a TS% better than Sexton's 2nd or 3rd years. He's also paid $30m a year, way over what anyone expects for Sexton, although obviously a better passer-- but he's gotten to play PG for his entire career, so he's gotten to grow through an A/TO ratio well below 2 in his first three years on the court.
Zach LaVine is a much better comp-- awful defense, not a point guard, beats guys with speed, took mostly assisted 3s in his first three years, averaged 4.0 threes taken per game over his first four years (compared to Sexton's 3.9), had a season-ending injury after slumping in a limited set of games in his 4th year, signed a 4y/$78m contract, which projects to $93m over four years with the current cap. Regarded as an overpay at the time, but he's going to get a bigger contract this offseason.
You can argue fit, and we have so we don't need to get into it, but Sexton's comparable guys are all in range where $20m is perfectly reasonable expectation from his camp and the right team could (unwisely?) offer him more. If I were him I'd hate to be paid less than LeVert is, if only for pecking order purposes. His ceiling, compared to reasonable comp guys, is possibly the all-star level if there's more growth in his game; if not, he's got the long Reggie Jackson path ahead.
