Your ideal offseason plan

[toooskies]

Let's put together some dream offseasons for the Cavs where everything goes right. Let's keep things based in reality-- no winning the lottery (or seeing top 5 talent sliding to pick 14). It's important to answer the following questions:

1. Who do the Cavs pick at #14 (or do they trade the pick)? Do they try to fit an immediate need?
2. Who do the Cavs pick with the SAS 2nd?
3. Who do the Cavs pick with the Miami 2nd?
4. Do the Cavs re-sign Sexton? If so, for how much/how long?
5. Are any players on the roster getting traded? If so, what's the return?
6. Who's the backup PG? Who's the 3rd string? (I.e. who is in Rajon Rondo and Brandon Goodwin's roster spots?)
7. Who's the backup C? Who's the 3rd string? (I.e. who is in Ed Davis and Moses Brown's roster spots?)

My quick, ready-to-change-at-any-moment take:
1. Tari Eason falls to 14, the Cavs draft him to be their SF of the future.
2. Take Oscar Tshiebwe out of Kentucky to be at the back end of the big man rotation.
3. Take Andrew Nembhard out of Gonzaga to be at the back end of the big man rotation.
4. Yes-- 3 years, $60m. TO for a fourth year.
5. Cedi Osman is the odd man out, San Antonio or OKC takes him into cap space for a future 2nd as an expiring deal.
6. Ricky Rubio returns on a deal left open with Cedi's cap savings, Cavs have Andrew Nembhard on a two-way, while Sexton fills minutes as well while Rubio rehabs.
7. Mobley is the typical backup with Tshiebwe as backup. Moses Brown returns as well, and looks slightly better after learning the team offensive and defensive concepts.

[Harper4Ferry?]

Could we possibly get Donovan Mitchell? Utah probably has to do something with that core. We could throw them a bunch of picks and parts. We won’t win this lottery, but if we ended up in the top 4 I’d at least try.

[jbk1234]

I don't really care who the Cavs take in the second round. But they should think about moving one of those seconds, if not both, rather than bringing three rookies into camp.

I think you need J. Rich back from the Spurs if you trade Cedi. If you sign Sexton to $20M, just offer Rubio the tax MLE and tell him he can rehab/coach for most of the season - which is the problem with signing him in the first place if it's not a team-friendly two year deal. You're paying him to rehab for at least half a season and then you're not really sure what you're getting when he does come back. In short, you need a band aid for 40-50 games at backup PG if Rubio is the plan.

If the Cavs take themselves out of the 2023 F.A. market because they sign Sexton to a contract like that, and/or extend LeVert, then they really better be able to trade those guys for shooters on whatever contracts they sign them to. It's a bad bet, but if they want to take it, they had better win it.

They could do real damage to Mobley's development trying to figure out a way to make the spacing work with Sexton and LeVert as the secondary ball handlers on this roster. They'll have nights where we're running off of turnovers and/or playing poor defensive teams where they'll get theirs. But when the game slows down in the 4th quarter, when we get into half court sets against good defensive teams, get ready to see a whole bunch of defenders in the paint.

[JonFromVA]

Pencil in Isaiah Mobley with one of the 2nd round picks.

IMO, we don't need #14 to fill an immediate need, and we shouldn't count on it to do so.

We also don't have to fill all our needs this Summer, we just need to take some steps in the right direction.

[toooskies]

I don't really care who the Cavs take in the second round. But they should think about moving one of those seconds, if not both, rather than bringing three rookies into camp.

I think you need J. Rich back from the Spurs if you trade Cedi. If you sign Sexton to $20M, just offer Rubio the tax MLE and tell him he can rehab/coach for most of the season - which is the problem with signing him in the first place if it's not a team-friendly two year deal. You're paying him to rehab for at least half a season and then you're not really sure what you're getting when he does come back. In short, you need a band aid for 40-50 games at backup PG if Rubio is the plan.

If the Cavs take themselves out of the 2023 F.A. market because they sign Sexton to a contract like that, and/or extend LeVert, then they really better be able to trade those guys for shooters on whatever contracts they sign them to. It's a bad bet, but if they want to take it, they had better win it.

They could do real damage to Mobley's development trying to figure out a way to make the spacing work with Sexton and LeVert as the secondary ball handlers on this roster. They'll have nights where we're running off of turnovers and/or playing poor defensive teams where they'll get theirs. But when the game slows down in the 4th quarter, when we get into half court sets against good defensive teams, get ready to see a whole bunch of defenders in the paint.

Some classic JBK opinions!
- Likes J. Rich (although as soon as he was traded the Celtics took off, along w/ Schroder and Freedom; not saying he was the problem, but he wasn't part of the solution)
- Don't compromise the 2023 FA market (if the Cavs are a top 10 option in terms of team composition and bottom 10 market to play in and there are young guys who demand opportunities... the Cavs may be an average team in free agency that offseason, and an average team in free agency tends to sign bad deals when signing players from other teams)
- Wants more shooters (we were 15th in 3p% this year and 19th in makes per 100 possessions, we're very average in both regards and there are reasons why both should trend up without significant changes to personnel)
- Considers Sexton as a lane crowder (yes, he prefers to drive, but he already averaged four threes a game, and shifted in the right direction this year on a per-minute basis, 5att per 36mins, before getting hurt)

[jbk1234]

I don't really care who the Cavs take in the second round. But they should think about moving one of those seconds, if not both, rather than bringing three rookies into camp.

I think you need J. Rich back from the Spurs if you trade Cedi. If you sign Sexton to $20M, just offer Rubio the tax MLE and tell him he can rehab/coach for most of the season - which is the problem with signing him in the first place if it's not a team-friendly two year deal. You're paying him to rehab for at least half a season and then you're not really sure what you're getting when he does come back. In short, you need a band aid for 40-50 games at backup PG if Rubio is the plan.

If the Cavs take themselves out of the 2023 F.A. market because they sign Sexton to a contract like that, and/or extend LeVert, then they really better be able to trade those guys for shooters on whatever contracts they sign them to. It's a bad bet, but if they want to take it, they had better win it.

They could do real damage to Mobley's development trying to figure out a way to make the spacing work with Sexton and LeVert as the secondary ball handlers on this roster. They'll have nights where we're running off of turnovers and/or playing poor defensive teams where they'll get theirs. But when the game slows down in the 4th quarter, when we get into half court sets against good defensive teams, get ready to see a whole bunch of defenders in the paint.

Some classic JBK opinions!
- Likes J. Rich (although as soon as he was traded the Celtics took off, along w/ Schroder and Freedom; not saying he was the problem, but he wasn't part of the solution)
- Don't compromise the 2023 FA market (if the Cavs are a top 10 option in terms of team composition and bottom 10 market to play in and there are young guys who demand opportunities... the Cavs may be an average team in free agency that offseason, and an average team in free agency tends to sign bad deals when signing players from other teams)
- Wants more shooters (we were 15th in 3p% this year and 19th in makes per 100 possessions, we're very average in both regards and there are reasons why both should trend up without significant changes to personnel)
- Considers Sexton as a lane crowder (yes, he prefers to drive, but he already averaged four threes a game, and shifted in the right direction this year on a per-minute basis, 5att per 36mins, before getting hurt)

If you have one foot in ice water and one foot in scalding water, I could say your feet are in water that's average temperature, but I promise you wouldn't like it. The important thing is how our starting unit spaces the floor, and to a lesser extent, whether our role players are consistent in their 3 point shooting and attempts, or whether the variance is so high that opposing teams routinely leave them unguarded on the perimeter.

The average 3 point % in the NBA was .356.

The Cavs problem is that Garland shoots the highest percentage of the starters from out there, .383 (174 makes on 454 attempts), on the highest number of attempts per game, 6.7. Obviously Garland cannot space the court for himself and he can't run the offense for Mobley/Allen if he's shootings 3s. It's why the Cavs see so much box-and-one defense from other teams. Keep track off Garland on the perimeter but otherwise crowd the paint is a pretty easy defense to run and a pretty difficult to defense to scheme against if you cannot shoot over it.

The second highest percentage among the starters was Lauri at .358% (136 makes on 380 attempts) at 6.2 attempts per game. His career average is .364. Now, that's fine given that number of attempts, even if it is closer to league average than you'd like, but are we really saying Lauri is the long-term starter at 3, and even if we are, then we still need more attempts and makes out of SG.

K. Love at .392 (180 makes on 477 attempts) shot the highest percentage on the team, 6.4 attempts per game (which is on the higher end for him) IN 22.5 MPG. His career average is .373. The Cavs best 3-point shooter rarely played with the starters, wasn't on the floor for the majority of the game, and is on an expiring contract.

So when we talk about averages, three players accounted for 490 makes on 1,311 attempts for .373 shooting from 3-point range.

The Cavs as a team shot .355 on 2,686 attempts making 953 of them. If you remove Garland, Lauri, and Love, the entire rest of the roster had 463 makes on 1,375 attempts for .336 shooting from range.

You either have guys who shoot okay but don't average even 3 attempts a game, guys who average more than but are bad, or guys like Cedi who will routinely sandwich a .250 moth between two months where he shoots .400.

So yeah, with Garland being the PG, Love presumably leaving after next season, and Lauri maybe taking his place as the sixth man in a three big rotation, the Cavs three-point shooting situation is a real problem, particularly with the starting unit. I didn't have to crunch these numbers to know that, I only had to watch how the opposing teams defended us all season long. They're not defending the averages. They're defending who's out there.

[JonFromVA]

Also Isaac shot 35% this season (21 years old) and Collin shot 37.1% last season (23 years old). At their age, it's not unreasonable to hope they continue to improve their shooting and increases their volume. Mobley needs to work on his shooting and who knows if/when he might make a leap, but that's why we're patient ... right?

Defenses respect Kevin, Lauri, and DG. We could certainly use another shooter that gets that kind of respect, but it's not crazy to hope that comes from internal development. Hate to even mention Windler because he just seems broken after dealing with so many injuries; but he was one of our stabs at drafting a lengthy athletic wing shooter.

It wouldn't hurt if JBB went on a Summer conditioning program to have grit & grind expunged from his mind. Maybe while Rubio is recuperating, have him come in and help design some plays (or just hire an offensive assistant). Meanwhile get Jarrett, Evan, and Lauri to work with a big man's coach who can teach them to rebound and set screens.

And still, I have to point out ... these were all good units for us (no Ricky):

Garland-Okoro-Markkanen-Mobley-Allen
Garland-Okoro-Wade-Mobley-Allen
Garland-Stevens-Markkanen-Mobley-Allen
Garland-Okoro-LeVert-Markkanen-Mobley
Garland-Okoro-Stevens-Markkanen-Mobley

and this one was probably our best of all (with Ricky):

Garland-Rubio-Markkanen-Mobley-Allen

And none of them have more than a pair of 3pt shooters that defenses have to respect.

[toooskies]

I don't really care who the Cavs take in the second round. But they should think about moving one of those seconds, if not both, rather than bringing three rookies into camp.

I think you need J. Rich back from the Spurs if you trade Cedi. If you sign Sexton to $20M, just offer Rubio the tax MLE and tell him he can rehab/coach for most of the season - which is the problem with signing him in the first place if it's not a team-friendly two year deal. You're paying him to rehab for at least half a season and then you're not really sure what you're getting when he does come back. In short, you need a band aid for 40-50 games at backup PG if Rubio is the plan.

If the Cavs take themselves out of the 2023 F.A. market because they sign Sexton to a contract like that, and/or extend LeVert, then they really better be able to trade those guys for shooters on whatever contracts they sign them to. It's a bad bet, but if they want to take it, they had better win it.

They could do real damage to Mobley's development trying to figure out a way to make the spacing work with Sexton and LeVert as the secondary ball handlers on this roster. They'll have nights where we're running off of turnovers and/or playing poor defensive teams where they'll get theirs. But when the game slows down in the 4th quarter, when we get into half court sets against good defensive teams, get ready to see a whole bunch of defenders in the paint.

Some classic JBK opinions!
- Likes J. Rich (although as soon as he was traded the Celtics took off, along w/ Schroder and Freedom; not saying he was the problem, but he wasn't part of the solution)
- Don't compromise the 2023 FA market (if the Cavs are a top 10 option in terms of team composition and bottom 10 market to play in and there are young guys who demand opportunities... the Cavs may be an average team in free agency that offseason, and an average team in free agency tends to sign bad deals when signing players from other teams)
- Wants more shooters (we were 15th in 3p% this year and 19th in makes per 100 possessions, we're very average in both regards and there are reasons why both should trend up without significant changes to personnel)
- Considers Sexton as a lane crowder (yes, he prefers to drive, but he already averaged four threes a game, and shifted in the right direction this year on a per-minute basis, 5att per 36mins, before getting hurt)

If you have one foot in ice water and one foot in scalding water, I could say your feet are in water that's average temperature, but I promise you wouldn't like it. The important thing is how our starting unit spaces the floor, and to a lesser extent, whether our role players are consistent in their 3 point shooting and attempts, or whether the variance is so high that opposing teams routinely leave them unguarded on the perimeter.

The average 3 point % in the NBA was .356.

The Cavs problem is that Garland shoots the highest percentage of the starters from out there, .383 (174 makes on 454 attempts), on the highest number of attempts per game, 6.7. Obviously Garland cannot space the court for himself and he can't run the offense for Mobley/Allen if he's shootings 3s. It's why the Cavs see so much box-and-one defense from other teams. Keep track off Garland on the perimeter but otherwise crowd the paint is a pretty easy defense to run and a pretty difficult to defense to scheme against if you cannot shoot over it.

The second highest percentage among the starters was Lauri at .358% (136 makes on 380 attempts) at 6.2 attempts per game. His career average is .364. Now, that's fine given that number of attempts, even if it is closer to league average than you'd like, but are we really saying Lauri is the long-term starter at 3, and even if we are, then we still need more attempts and makes out of SG.

K. Love at .392 (180 makes on 477 attempts) shot the highest percentage on the team, 6.4 attempts per game (which is on the higher end for him) IN 22.5 MPG. His career average is .373. The Cavs best 3-point shooter rarely played with the starters, wasn't on the floor for the majority of the game, and is on an expiring contract.

So when we talk about averages, three players accounted for 490 makes on 1,311 attempts for .373 shooting from 3-point range.

The Cavs as a team shot .355 on 2,686 attempts making 953 of them. If you remove Garland, Lauri, and Love, the entire rest of the roster had 463 makes on 1,375 attempts for .336 shooting from range.

You either have guys who shoot okay but don't average even 3 attempts a game, guys who average more than but are bad, or guys like Cedi who will routinely sandwich a .250 moth between two months where he shoots .400.

So yeah, with Garland being the PG, Love presumably leaving after next season, and Lauri maybe taking his place as the sixth man in a three big rotation, the Cavs three-point shooting situation is a real problem, particularly with the starting unit. I didn't have to crunch these numbers to know that, I only had to watch how the opposing teams defended us all season long. They're not defending the averages. They're defending who's out there.

Next year we're presumably going to be running out Sexton and Markkanen as the starting 2 and 3. 38% and 36% shooters on their careers, combined taking 10+ shots a game, with Garland adding his 7 shots as well. And Sexton will be driving often enough that Garland will be spacing the floor for him plenty.

Compare that to the Boston Celtics this year, with two 36% shooters, two 33% shooters, and a non-shooter. Bringing a disappointing shooter in White off the bench.
Compare that to the Miami Heat, with 17 attempts a game from Tucker/Robinson/Lowry and nothing of value from 3 from Bam and Butler.
Compare that to plenty of GSW teams who made a dynasty built upon playing Draymond Green along with a non-shooting C (Looney, Bogut, Pachulia, Cousins) along with Iguodala laying bricks off the bench.

I'm not saying we have good spacing, it's just that the fundamental problem isn't that Markkanen and Sexton (or even Markkanen and Okoro) aren't good enough, it's Allen + Mobley not bringing outside shooting. Unless you're going to trade one of them, your options to get a starting-caliber player who can consistently compensate for that and is available for trade is nearly impossible. You live with being average from distance with bad spacing and figure out how to beat it otherwise-- good passing in traffic, good shooting, vertical spacing, big-to-big actions, off-ball movement.

Oh, and Garland will be plenty available to shoot from the perimeter when Sexton drives.

Now, maybe you want more volume than Sexton (although Sexton may be able to turn up his volume from outside). There are at least some options: Brooklyn has two of them (Seth Curry and Joe Harris), the Clippers have two of them (Powell and Kennard). But those aren't even above-average starters-- either they can't get a shot other than a 3, or can't play defense, or both. Maybe you can take a big swing at Donovan Mitchell if Utah totally implodes?

But I'm not sure any of those guys are upgrades. Another year and Markkanen, Sexton, and Garland might all tick up their outside shooting either in volume or efficiency.

[jbk1234]

Some classic JBK opinions!
- Likes J. Rich (although as soon as he was traded the Celtics took off, along w/ Schroder and Freedom; not saying he was the problem, but he wasn't part of the solution)
- Don't compromise the 2023 FA market (if the Cavs are a top 10 option in terms of team composition and bottom 10 market to play in and there are young guys who demand opportunities... the Cavs may be an average team in free agency that offseason, and an average team in free agency tends to sign bad deals when signing players from other teams)
- Wants more shooters (we were 15th in 3p% this year and 19th in makes per 100 possessions, we're very average in both regards and there are reasons why both should trend up without significant changes to personnel)
- Considers Sexton as a lane crowder (yes, he prefers to drive, but he already averaged four threes a game, and shifted in the right direction this year on a per-minute basis, 5att per 36mins, before getting hurt)

If you have one foot in ice water and one foot in scalding water, I could say your feet are in water that's average temperature, but I promise you wouldn't like it. The important thing is how our starting unit spaces the floor, and to a lesser extent, whether our role players are consistent in their 3 point shooting and attempts, or whether the variance is so high that opposing teams routinely leave them unguarded on the perimeter.

The average 3 point % in the NBA was .356.

The Cavs problem is that Garland shoots the highest percentage of the starters from out there, .383 (174 makes on 454 attempts), on the highest number of attempts per game, 6.7. Obviously Garland cannot space the court for himself and he can't run the offense for Mobley/Allen if he's shootings 3s. It's why the Cavs see so much box-and-one defense from other teams. Keep track off Garland on the perimeter but otherwise crowd the paint is a pretty easy defense to run and a pretty difficult to defense to scheme against if you cannot shoot over it.

The second highest percentage among the starters was Lauri at .358% (136 makes on 380 attempts) at 6.2 attempts per game. His career average is .364. Now, that's fine given that number of attempts, even if it is closer to league average than you'd like, but are we really saying Lauri is the long-term starter at 3, and even if we are, then we still need more attempts and makes out of SG.

K. Love at .392 (180 makes on 477 attempts) shot the highest percentage on the team, 6.4 attempts per game (which is on the higher end for him) IN 22.5 MPG. His career average is .373. The Cavs best 3-point shooter rarely played with the starters, wasn't on the floor for the majority of the game, and is on an expiring contract.

So when we talk about averages, three players accounted for 490 makes on 1,311 attempts for .373 shooting from 3-point range.

The Cavs as a team shot .355 on 2,686 attempts making 953 of them. If you remove Garland, Lauri, and Love, the entire rest of the roster had 463 makes on 1,375 attempts for .336 shooting from range.

You either have guys who shoot okay but don't average even 3 attempts a game, guys who average more than but are bad, or guys like Cedi who will routinely sandwich a .250 moth between two months where he shoots .400.

So yeah, with Garland being the PG, Love presumably leaving after next season, and Lauri maybe taking his place as the sixth man in a three big rotation, the Cavs three-point shooting situation is a real problem, particularly with the starting unit. I didn't have to crunch these numbers to know that, I only had to watch how the opposing teams defended us all season long. They're not defending the averages. They're defending who's out there.

Next year we're presumably going to be running out Sexton and Markkanen as the starting 2 and 3. 38% and 36% shooters on their careers, combined taking 10+ shots a game, with Garland adding his 7 shots as well. And Sexton will be driving often enough that Garland will be spacing the floor for him plenty.

Compare that to the Boston Celtics this year, with two 36% shooters, two 33% shooters, and a non-shooter. Bringing a disappointing shooter in White off the bench.
Compare that to the Miami Heat, with 17 attempts a game from Tucker/Robinson/Lowry and nothing of value from 3 from Bam and Butler.
Compare that to plenty of GSW teams who made a dynasty built upon playing Draymond Green along with a non-shooting C (Looney, Bogut, Pachulia, Cousins) along with Iguodala laying bricks off the bench.

I'm not saying we have good spacing, it's just that the fundamental problem isn't that Markkanen and Sexton (or even Markkanen and Okoro) aren't good enough, it's Allen + Mobley not bringing outside shooting. Unless you're going to trade one of them, your options to get a starting-caliber player who can consistently compensate for that and is available for trade is nearly impossible. You live with being average from distance with bad spacing and figure out how to beat it otherwise-- good passing in traffic, good shooting, vertical spacing, big-to-big actions, off-ball movement.

Oh, and Garland will be plenty available to shoot from the perimeter when Sexton drives.

Now, maybe you want more volume than Sexton (although Sexton may be able to turn up his volume from outside). There are at least some options: Brooklyn has two of them (Seth Curry and Joe Harris), the Clippers have two of them (Powell and Kennard). But those aren't even above-average starters-- either they can't get a shot other than a 3, or can't play defense, or both. Maybe you can take a big swing at Donovan Mitchell if Utah totally implodes?

But I'm not sure any of those guys are upgrades. Another year and Markkanen, Sexton, and Garland might all tick up their outside shooting either in volume or efficiency.

What I'd like is for some Cavs fans who are anticipating the best case scenario, is to allow for the possibility that this ideal version of Sexton doesn't materialize just because pay him, and then ask themselves what do we do at that point?

I have the difference between Seth Curry and Sexton on the defensive end as illusory at best.

[jbk1234]

Also Isaac shot 35% this season (21 years old) and Collin shot 37.1% last season (23 years old). At their age, it's not unreasonable to hope they continue to improve their shooting and increases their volume. Mobley needs to work on his shooting and who knows if/when he might make a leap, but that's why we're patient ... right?

Defenses respect Kevin, Lauri, and DG. We could certainly use another shooter that gets that kind of respect, but it's not crazy to hope that comes from internal development. Hate to even mention Windler because he just seems broken after dealing with so many injuries; but he was one of our stabs at drafting a lengthy athletic wing shooter.

It wouldn't hurt if JBB went on a Summer conditioning program to have grit & grind expunged from his mind. Maybe while Rubio is recuperating, have him come in and help design some plays (or just hire an offensive assistant). Meanwhile get Jarrett, Evan, and Lauri to work with a big man's coach who can teach them to rebound and set screens.

And still, I have to point out ... these were all good units for us (no Ricky):

Garland-Okoro-Markkanen-Mobley-Allen
Garland-Okoro-Wade-Mobley-Allen
Garland-Stevens-Markkanen-Mobley-Allen
Garland-Okoro-LeVert-Markkanen-Mobley
Garland-Okoro-Stevens-Markkanen-Mobley

and this one was probably our best of all (with Ricky):

Garland-Rubio-Markkanen-Mobley-Allen

And none of them have more than a pair of 3pt shooters that defenses have to respect.

Only one of these units had another guy who could (a) run an offense while Garland helped space the floor: and (b) could actually close out games while the other team was serious about defending.

Also, Sexton shot .371 two seasons ago, he trended in the wrong direction as the season went on, and last year he shot far worse on a limited sample size last season.

[KuruptedCav]

Branham in the 1st; he’s a good spot up shooter, moves the ball, and has excellent length. Rebounds well for the position.

Jordan Hall in the 2nd. The kid is a Swiss Army knife. TBD whether it is sharp or dull, but he filled up the box scores at St. Joe’s and shoots, passes and rebounds at a solid clip.

& Elder Mobley in the 2nd. He’s Evan’s brother, seems to be a high character family. And two-way contract him.

In free agency: Sexton signs his QO. Rubio takes MLE for 2 years. LeVert is not extended during the off-season.

Leaving me with:

Garland/Sexton/Rubio*
Okoro/LeVert/Branham/Windler
Markannen/Osman/Hall
Mobley/Stevens/Wade
Allen/Love/Mobley2

There are some interesting lineups in that depth chart and a ton of flexibility to jump into the trade market if someone shakes loose.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[toooskies]

Branham in the 1st; he’s a good spot up shooter, moves the ball, and has excellent length. Rebounds well for the position.

Jordan Hall in the 2nd. The kid is a Swiss Army knife. TBD whether it is sharp or dull, but he filled up the box scores at St. Joe’s and shoots, passes and rebounds at a solid clip.

& Elder Mobley in the 2nd. He’s Evan’s brother, seems to be a high character family. And two-way contract him.

In free agency: Sexton signs his QO. Rubio takes MLE for 2 years. LeVert is not extended during the off-season.

Leaving me with:

Garland/Sexton/Rubio*
Okoro/LeVert/Branham/Windler
Markannen/Osman/Hall
Mobley/Stevens/Wade
Allen/Love/Mobley2

There are some interesting lineups in that depth chart and a ton of flexibility to jump into the trade market if someone shakes loose.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Why do people insist the elder Mobley is a center? He weighs a bit more, but is shorter and has played F all his life.

[JonFromVA]

If you have one foot in ice water and one foot in scalding water, I could say your feet are in water that's average temperature, but I promise you wouldn't like it. The important thing is how our starting unit spaces the floor, and to a lesser extent, whether our role players are consistent in their 3 point shooting and attempts, or whether the variance is so high that opposing teams routinely leave them unguarded on the perimeter.

The average 3 point % in the NBA was .356.

The Cavs problem is that Garland shoots the highest percentage of the starters from out there, .383 (174 makes on 454 attempts), on the highest number of attempts per game, 6.7. Obviously Garland cannot space the court for himself and he can't run the offense for Mobley/Allen if he's shootings 3s. It's why the Cavs see so much box-and-one defense from other teams. Keep track off Garland on the perimeter but otherwise crowd the paint is a pretty easy defense to run and a pretty difficult to defense to scheme against if you cannot shoot over it.

The second highest percentage among the starters was Lauri at .358% (136 makes on 380 attempts) at 6.2 attempts per game. His career average is .364. Now, that's fine given that number of attempts, even if it is closer to league average than you'd like, but are we really saying Lauri is the long-term starter at 3, and even if we are, then we still need more attempts and makes out of SG.

K. Love at .392 (180 makes on 477 attempts) shot the highest percentage on the team, 6.4 attempts per game (which is on the higher end for him) IN 22.5 MPG. His career average is .373. The Cavs best 3-point shooter rarely played with the starters, wasn't on the floor for the majority of the game, and is on an expiring contract.

So when we talk about averages, three players accounted for 490 makes on 1,311 attempts for .373 shooting from 3-point range.

The Cavs as a team shot .355 on 2,686 attempts making 953 of them. If you remove Garland, Lauri, and Love, the entire rest of the roster had 463 makes on 1,375 attempts for .336 shooting from range.

You either have guys who shoot okay but don't average even 3 attempts a game, guys who average more than but are bad, or guys like Cedi who will routinely sandwich a .250 moth between two months where he shoots .400.

So yeah, with Garland being the PG, Love presumably leaving after next season, and Lauri maybe taking his place as the sixth man in a three big rotation, the Cavs three-point shooting situation is a real problem, particularly with the starting unit. I didn't have to crunch these numbers to know that, I only had to watch how the opposing teams defended us all season long. They're not defending the averages. They're defending who's out there.

Next year we're presumably going to be running out Sexton and Markkanen as the starting 2 and 3. 38% and 36% shooters on their careers, combined taking 10+ shots a game, with Garland adding his 7 shots as well. And Sexton will be driving often enough that Garland will be spacing the floor for him plenty.

Compare that to the Boston Celtics this year, with two 36% shooters, two 33% shooters, and a non-shooter. Bringing a disappointing shooter in White off the bench.
Compare that to the Miami Heat, with 17 attempts a game from Tucker/Robinson/Lowry and nothing of value from 3 from Bam and Butler.
Compare that to plenty of GSW teams who made a dynasty built upon playing Draymond Green along with a non-shooting C (Looney, Bogut, Pachulia, Cousins) along with Iguodala laying bricks off the bench.

I'm not saying we have good spacing, it's just that the fundamental problem isn't that Markkanen and Sexton (or even Markkanen and Okoro) aren't good enough, it's Allen + Mobley not bringing outside shooting. Unless you're going to trade one of them, your options to get a starting-caliber player who can consistently compensate for that and is available for trade is nearly impossible. You live with being average from distance with bad spacing and figure out how to beat it otherwise-- good passing in traffic, good shooting, vertical spacing, big-to-big actions, off-ball movement.

Oh, and Garland will be plenty available to shoot from the perimeter when Sexton drives.

Now, maybe you want more volume than Sexton (although Sexton may be able to turn up his volume from outside). There are at least some options: Brooklyn has two of them (Seth Curry and Joe Harris), the Clippers have two of them (Powell and Kennard). But those aren't even above-average starters-- either they can't get a shot other than a 3, or can't play defense, or both. Maybe you can take a big swing at Donovan Mitchell if Utah totally implodes?

But I'm not sure any of those guys are upgrades. Another year and Markkanen, Sexton, and Garland might all tick up their outside shooting either in volume or efficiency.

What I'd like is for some Cavs fans who are anticipating the best case scenario, is to allow for the possibility that this ideal version of Sexton doesn't materialize just because pay him, and then ask themselves what do we do at that point?

I have the difference between Seth Curry and Sexton on the defensive end as illusory at best.

And Seth Curry hadn't even played a single game in the NBA yet when he was Collin's age. Even at his age and given enough time and teams he eventually became an NBA player that could play more than 5mpg and even start.

If you want to play the draft game, you have to be willing to project and take a chance on a player developing. Is there risk? Of course, but that's part of the job. Altman and his group need to figure that out, not you or me and in his presser the other day he made it clear Sexton and LeVert is not an either/or proposition - given the right conditions he'd gladly keep both.

Now if there's a team with enough playmaking and spacing at other positions to let Collin defend PG's, it may be in all parties interest to work out a trade; but short of Garland growing 5" we have about as good of a situation as there can be for a tiny backcourt.

Our young men with the amazing work-ethic and character just need to continue to work hard on all aspects of their game.

It's not a fantasy to expect them to improve on their weaknesses at their ages.

[toooskies]

If you have one foot in ice water and one foot in scalding water, I could say your feet are in water that's average temperature, but I promise you wouldn't like it. The important thing is how our starting unit spaces the floor, and to a lesser extent, whether our role players are consistent in their 3 point shooting and attempts, or whether the variance is so high that opposing teams routinely leave them unguarded on the perimeter.

The average 3 point % in the NBA was .356.

The Cavs problem is that Garland shoots the highest percentage of the starters from out there, .383 (174 makes on 454 attempts), on the highest number of attempts per game, 6.7. Obviously Garland cannot space the court for himself and he can't run the offense for Mobley/Allen if he's shootings 3s. It's why the Cavs see so much box-and-one defense from other teams. Keep track off Garland on the perimeter but otherwise crowd the paint is a pretty easy defense to run and a pretty difficult to defense to scheme against if you cannot shoot over it.

The second highest percentage among the starters was Lauri at .358% (136 makes on 380 attempts) at 6.2 attempts per game. His career average is .364. Now, that's fine given that number of attempts, even if it is closer to league average than you'd like, but are we really saying Lauri is the long-term starter at 3, and even if we are, then we still need more attempts and makes out of SG.

K. Love at .392 (180 makes on 477 attempts) shot the highest percentage on the team, 6.4 attempts per game (which is on the higher end for him) IN 22.5 MPG. His career average is .373. The Cavs best 3-point shooter rarely played with the starters, wasn't on the floor for the majority of the game, and is on an expiring contract.

So when we talk about averages, three players accounted for 490 makes on 1,311 attempts for .373 shooting from 3-point range.

The Cavs as a team shot .355 on 2,686 attempts making 953 of them. If you remove Garland, Lauri, and Love, the entire rest of the roster had 463 makes on 1,375 attempts for .336 shooting from range.

You either have guys who shoot okay but don't average even 3 attempts a game, guys who average more than but are bad, or guys like Cedi who will routinely sandwich a .250 moth between two months where he shoots .400.

So yeah, with Garland being the PG, Love presumably leaving after next season, and Lauri maybe taking his place as the sixth man in a three big rotation, the Cavs three-point shooting situation is a real problem, particularly with the starting unit. I didn't have to crunch these numbers to know that, I only had to watch how the opposing teams defended us all season long. They're not defending the averages. They're defending who's out there.

Next year we're presumably going to be running out Sexton and Markkanen as the starting 2 and 3. 38% and 36% shooters on their careers, combined taking 10+ shots a game, with Garland adding his 7 shots as well. And Sexton will be driving often enough that Garland will be spacing the floor for him plenty.

Compare that to the Boston Celtics this year, with two 36% shooters, two 33% shooters, and a non-shooter. Bringing a disappointing shooter in White off the bench.
Compare that to the Miami Heat, with 17 attempts a game from Tucker/Robinson/Lowry and nothing of value from 3 from Bam and Butler.
Compare that to plenty of GSW teams who made a dynasty built upon playing Draymond Green along with a non-shooting C (Looney, Bogut, Pachulia, Cousins) along with Iguodala laying bricks off the bench.

I'm not saying we have good spacing, it's just that the fundamental problem isn't that Markkanen and Sexton (or even Markkanen and Okoro) aren't good enough, it's Allen + Mobley not bringing outside shooting. Unless you're going to trade one of them, your options to get a starting-caliber player who can consistently compensate for that and is available for trade is nearly impossible. You live with being average from distance with bad spacing and figure out how to beat it otherwise-- good passing in traffic, good shooting, vertical spacing, big-to-big actions, off-ball movement.

Oh, and Garland will be plenty available to shoot from the perimeter when Sexton drives.

Now, maybe you want more volume than Sexton (although Sexton may be able to turn up his volume from outside). There are at least some options: Brooklyn has two of them (Seth Curry and Joe Harris), the Clippers have two of them (Powell and Kennard). But those aren't even above-average starters-- either they can't get a shot other than a 3, or can't play defense, or both. Maybe you can take a big swing at Donovan Mitchell if Utah totally implodes?

But I'm not sure any of those guys are upgrades. Another year and Markkanen, Sexton, and Garland might all tick up their outside shooting either in volume or efficiency.

What I'd like is for some Cavs fans who are anticipating the best case scenario, is to allow for the possibility that this ideal version of Sexton doesn't materialize just because pay him, and then ask themselves what do we do at that point?

I have the difference between Seth Curry and Sexton on the defensive end as illusory at best.

If the injury affects Sexton's outside shooting to the degree where he isn't a threat to be guarded, that's kind of catastrophic for a surgery where the prognosis is a full recovery. But it should also be apparent by the time free agency starts if that might be the case. Sexton is still at the facility every day rehabbing and practicing, according to an interview with Koby Altman. I'm sure they have eyes on how rehab is going and will make their contract offer decisions taking that into account.

The most likely regression from Sexton is him losing some quickness, either temporarily or permanently. That might affect his off-the-dribble shooting, but that doesn't affect spacing unless it keeps him from getting open off-ball.

[jbk1234]

Next year we're presumably going to be running out Sexton and Markkanen as the starting 2 and 3. 38% and 36% shooters on their careers, combined taking 10+ shots a game, with Garland adding his 7 shots as well. And Sexton will be driving often enough that Garland will be spacing the floor for him plenty.

Compare that to the Boston Celtics this year, with two 36% shooters, two 33% shooters, and a non-shooter. Bringing a disappointing shooter in White off the bench.
Compare that to the Miami Heat, with 17 attempts a game from Tucker/Robinson/Lowry and nothing of value from 3 from Bam and Butler.
Compare that to plenty of GSW teams who made a dynasty built upon playing Draymond Green along with a non-shooting C (Looney, Bogut, Pachulia, Cousins) along with Iguodala laying bricks off the bench.

I'm not saying we have good spacing, it's just that the fundamental problem isn't that Markkanen and Sexton (or even Markkanen and Okoro) aren't good enough, it's Allen + Mobley not bringing outside shooting. Unless you're going to trade one of them, your options to get a starting-caliber player who can consistently compensate for that and is available for trade is nearly impossible. You live with being average from distance with bad spacing and figure out how to beat it otherwise-- good passing in traffic, good shooting, vertical spacing, big-to-big actions, off-ball movement.

Oh, and Garland will be plenty available to shoot from the perimeter when Sexton drives.

Now, maybe you want more volume than Sexton (although Sexton may be able to turn up his volume from outside). There are at least some options: Brooklyn has two of them (Seth Curry and Joe Harris), the Clippers have two of them (Powell and Kennard). But those aren't even above-average starters-- either they can't get a shot other than a 3, or can't play defense, or both. Maybe you can take a big swing at Donovan Mitchell if Utah totally implodes?

But I'm not sure any of those guys are upgrades. Another year and Markkanen, Sexton, and Garland might all tick up their outside shooting either in volume or efficiency.

What I'd like is for some Cavs fans who are anticipating the best case scenario, is to allow for the possibility that this ideal version of Sexton doesn't materialize just because pay him, and then ask themselves what do we do at that point?

I have the difference between Seth Curry and Sexton on the defensive end as illusory at best.

And Seth Curry hadn't even played a single game in the NBA yet when he was Collin's age. Even at his age and given enough time and teams he eventually became an NBA player that could play more than 5mpg and even start.

If you want to play the draft game, you have to be willing to project and take a chance on a player developing. Is there risk? Of course, but that's part of the job. Altman and his group need to figure that out, not you or me and in his presser the other day he made it clear Sexton and LeVert is not an either/or proposition - given the right conditions he'd gladly keep both.

Now if there's a team with enough playmaking and spacing at other positions to let Collin defend PG's, it may be in all parties interest to work out a trade; but short of Garland growing 5" we have about as good of a situation as there can be for a tiny backcourt.

Our young men with the amazing work-ethic and character just need to continue to work hard on all aspects of their game.

It's not a fantasy to expect them to improve on their weaknesses at their ages.

I was heartened by Chris Fedor's podcast the other day in the sense that the Cavs appear to be actually surveying Sexton's market outside of Cleveland, with the implication that they'd let that inform their offer.

If the Cavs go through that exercise, and it informs their decision, then I'm good. But there are worse outcomes than letting another team pay one of your players 200-300% of his market value league wide.

As to players improving their weaknesses, sure it's possible (I'm not sure Seth Curry is a good example of this). But probabilities should be informing your decision on what to pay players and Sexton isn't going to completely change the type of player that he is. Presumably, they calculated those probabilities when they had him on the trade market last summer.

[JonFromVA]

What I'd like is for some Cavs fans who are anticipating the best case scenario, is to allow for the possibility that this ideal version of Sexton doesn't materialize just because pay him, and then ask themselves what do we do at that point?

I have the difference between Seth Curry and Sexton on the defensive end as illusory at best.

And Seth Curry hadn't even played a single game in the NBA yet when he was Collin's age. Even at his age and given enough time and teams he eventually became an NBA player that could play more than 5mpg and even start.

If you want to play the draft game, you have to be willing to project and take a chance on a player developing. Is there risk? Of course, but that's part of the job. Altman and his group need to figure that out, not you or me and in his presser the other day he made it clear Sexton and LeVert is not an either/or proposition - given the right conditions he'd gladly keep both.

Now if there's a team with enough playmaking and spacing at other positions to let Collin defend PG's, it may be in all parties interest to work out a trade; but short of Garland growing 5" we have about as good of a situation as there can be for a tiny backcourt.

Our young men with the amazing work-ethic and character just need to continue to work hard on all aspects of their game.

It's not a fantasy to expect them to improve on their weaknesses at their ages.

I was heartened by Chris Fedor's podcast the other day in the sense that the Cavs appear to be actually surveying Sexton's market outside of Cleveland, with the implication that they'd let that inform their offer.

If the Cavs go through that exercise, and it informs their decision, then I'm good. But there are worse outcomes than letting another team pay one of your players 200-300% of his market value league wide.

As to players improving their weaknesses, sure it's possible (I'm not sure Seth Curry is a good example of this). But probabilities should be informing your decision on what to pay players and Sexton isn't going to completely change the type of player that he is. Presumably, they calculated those probabilities when they had him on the trade market last summer.

Yes, they did the same thing last Summer, but sure why not re-calibrate? Things change even if Collin barely played and regardless they need to formulate an idea of how much another team might offer Collin as a RFA to set their plans and/or try to convince RP/Collin that their offer is a fair one.

fwiw, I think we're hearing what we're hearing out of both sides right now because there's just no interest in Collin. His injury is problematic and prevented him from proving he was worth a max. There's a price team's would gladly pay Collin and take their chances, but it may be a price they expect the Cavs would match. So if there's a trade, it's likely because some team is willing to give Collin a shot at starting PG (Knicks, Detroit, etc), but they won't pay him a ton, and they won't give us a lot back.

Maybe we get a first round pick and a player we may have to look hard at to try to figure out how they might fit better. If we do have some ideas of using our cap space in 2023, expect that player we get back is expiring or can be easily moved.

So, anyone care to get excited over something like the Knicks #1 and Alex Burks? Maybe they "sweeten the pot" by throwing in Reddish too since Thibs doesn't seem to like him?

[jbk1234]

And Seth Curry hadn't even played a single game in the NBA yet when he was Collin's age. Even at his age and given enough time and teams he eventually became an NBA player that could play more than 5mpg and even start.

If you want to play the draft game, you have to be willing to project and take a chance on a player developing. Is there risk? Of course, but that's part of the job. Altman and his group need to figure that out, not you or me and in his presser the other day he made it clear Sexton and LeVert is not an either/or proposition - given the right conditions he'd gladly keep both.

Now if there's a team with enough playmaking and spacing at other positions to let Collin defend PG's, it may be in all parties interest to work out a trade; but short of Garland growing 5" we have about as good of a situation as there can be for a tiny backcourt.

Our young men with the amazing work-ethic and character just need to continue to work hard on all aspects of their game.

It's not a fantasy to expect them to improve on their weaknesses at their ages.

I was heartened by Chris Fedor's podcast the other day in the sense that the Cavs appear to be actually surveying Sexton's market outside of Cleveland, with the implication that they'd let that inform their offer.

If the Cavs go through that exercise, and it informs their decision, then I'm good. But there are worse outcomes than letting another team pay one of your players 200-300% of his market value league wide.

As to players improving their weaknesses, sure it's possible (I'm not sure Seth Curry is a good example of this). But probabilities should be informing your decision on what to pay players and Sexton isn't going to completely change the type of player that he is. Presumably, they calculated those probabilities when they had him on the trade market last summer.

Yes, they did the same thing last Summer, but sure why not re-calibrate? Things change even if Collin barely played and regardless they need to formulate an idea of how much another team might offer Collin as a RFA to set their plans and/or try to convince RP/Collin that their offer is a fair one.

fwiw, I think we're hearing what we're hearing out of both sides right now because there's just no interest in Collin. His injury is problematic and prevented him from proving he was worth a max. There's a price team's would gladly pay Collin and take their chances, but it may be a price they expect the Cavs would match. So if there's a trade, it's likely because some team is willing to give Collin a shot at starting PG (Knicks, Detroit, etc), but they won't pay him a ton, and they won't give us a lot back.

Maybe we get a first round pick and a player we may have to look hard at to try to figure out how they might fit better. If we do have some ideas of using our cap space in 2023, expect that player we get back is expiring or can be easily moved.

So, anyone care to get excited over something like the Knicks #1 and Alex Burks? Maybe they "sweeten the pot" by throwing in Reddish too since Thibs doesn't seem to like him?

Sexton seems like he's going to be in the same boat as Hart and/or Lauri last summer. It will be late into F.A. before anything gets done.

[JonFromVA]

I was heartened by Chris Fedor's podcast the other day in the sense that the Cavs appear to be actually surveying Sexton's market outside of Cleveland, with the implication that they'd let that inform their offer.

If the Cavs go through that exercise, and it informs their decision, then I'm good. But there are worse outcomes than letting another team pay one of your players 200-300% of his market value league wide.

As to players improving their weaknesses, sure it's possible (I'm not sure Seth Curry is a good example of this). But probabilities should be informing your decision on what to pay players and Sexton isn't going to completely change the type of player that he is. Presumably, they calculated those probabilities when they had him on the trade market last summer.

Yes, they did the same thing last Summer, but sure why not re-calibrate? Things change even if Collin barely played and regardless they need to formulate an idea of how much another team might offer Collin as a RFA to set their plans and/or try to convince RP/Collin that their offer is a fair one.

fwiw, I think we're hearing what we're hearing out of both sides right now because there's just no interest in Collin. His injury is problematic and prevented him from proving he was worth a max. There's a price team's would gladly pay Collin and take their chances, but it may be a price they expect the Cavs would match. So if there's a trade, it's likely because some team is willing to give Collin a shot at starting PG (Knicks, Detroit, etc), but they won't pay him a ton, and they won't give us a lot back.

Maybe we get a first round pick and a player we may have to look hard at to try to figure out how they might fit better. If we do have some ideas of using our cap space in 2023, expect that player we get back is expiring or can be easily moved.

So, anyone care to get excited over something like the Knicks #1 and Alex Burks? Maybe they "sweeten the pot" by throwing in Reddish too since Thibs doesn't seem to like him?

Sexton seems like he's going to be in the same boat as Hart and/or Lauri last summer. It will be late into F.A. before anything gets done.

We should be so lucky. I'm still afraid there's a huge gap between what Collin thinks he's worth and what 29 teams in the league are willing to pay him. If he could get synced up with reality, I imagine he'd sign quickly, because the Cavs don't generally low ball their offers.

[jeeph]

The Cavs seem more about attributes to fit this system rather than positions. So that's how I break the roster up.

Dribble drive creators - Garland/Goodwin - Our best line-ups last year were with Rubio and Garland, two short PG's. We only have Garland right now. Resigning Sexton will give us one but we need at least one more. We have to have a plus dribble driver out there for 48 minutes or our offense stalls. 3 or 4 plus dribblers to start the season. That is priority number one.


Off guards + Wings - Okoro/LeVert/Cedi/Stevens/Windler - Guys that aren't plus dribblers so you don't want to run this offense through but hopefully give you as many of the other roles as possible. I put them together because it really doesn't matter much to the offense if any of those guys start next to Garland.

Bigs - Mobley/Allen/Markkenen/Wade/Love/Brown - Love is the only short big. 4 of the tall bigs fit the mobile type. Brown is not ready to be the back-up 5 for a playoff team next year. Not Plan A anyway. When Allen went out the defense fell apart. None of the other guys could really handle a true 5 like like Drummond, or Val, or.... They could use a better back-up 5.

Looking at it now, Levert didn't bump Sexton's roster spot, I think he might have bumped Cedi instead. If they resign Sexton that will leave one dribbler as the need, then a back-up 5 and possibly another dribbler as wants.

Love, Cedi, Windler, plus picks are all available for a trade (seems LeVert is off the table?). It has been rumored that Cedi is the guy the teams call about the most. And a 3&D wing in this market making 2/16, that's got to be worth something. Rubio on a MLE deal would be ideal if a trade isn't available. The back-up 5 wouldn't have to be young or great, just playoff playable. The wish list off the top of my head, McGee(mobile), Whiteside(anchor), or Cousins(scoring). And all those guys can handle a true 5 physically.

[KuruptedCav]

Branham in the 1st; he’s a good spot up shooter, moves the ball, and has excellent length. Rebounds well for the position.

Jordan Hall in the 2nd. The kid is a Swiss Army knife. TBD whether it is sharp or dull, but he filled up the box scores at St. Joe’s and shoots, passes and rebounds at a solid clip.

& Elder Mobley in the 2nd. He’s Evan’s brother, seems to be a high character family. And two-way contract him.

In free agency: Sexton signs his QO. Rubio takes MLE for 2 years. LeVert is not extended during the off-season.

Leaving me with:

Garland/Sexton/Rubio*
Okoro/LeVert/Branham/Windler
Markannen/Osman/Hall
Mobley/Stevens/Wade
Allen/Love/Mobley2

There are some interesting lineups in that depth chart and a ton of flexibility to jump into the trade market if someone shakes loose.


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Why do people insist the elder Mobley is a center? He weighs a bit more, but is shorter and has played F all his life.

Lack of speed and lateral movement, willingness to put his body into contact, and his ability to shoot.

I think he matches up better with 5s than 4s in the NBA where the talent jump at PF is significantly higher.

His size is less concerning. We’ve seen plenty of smaller guys transition from forward in college to the 5 at the pro-level.

That said, pencil him and Wade or Stevens at the 5. It doesn’t really matter positionally.


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