toooskies wrote:jbk1234 wrote:toooskies wrote:Agbaji has a notable volume lead, but Sexton has a better career NBA 3p% than Agbaji does in college, over the same timespan.
I don't disagree that if you're correct that if the Cavs need exactly the skills you think they need at the 2 (which I disagree with), AND Agbaji's shooting and defense translate, that he'd be a fine pick, but never a home run where he turns into an elite two-way guy. But plenty of 4-year guys have had their shooting and defense not translate all the way.
Put another way: the upside on a 4-year guy whose main/only skills are 3 and D translate right away is Malcolm Brogdon. You could trade much less than the #14 pick to get Malcolm Brogdon right now.
I guess it really comes down to how good you think Allen, Mobley and Garland are. Either you think that with time they'll be enough, with the right commentary pieces around them, or not. But my fear with guys like LeVert and Sexton is that they'll take the ball out of the hands of those three, and the result will be worse, not better in terms of overall team efficiency.
It's not just the made threes, but the ability of Allen, Mobley, and Garland not to have to play through double teams if they're surrounded by good shooters that I'd really like to see. I think that type of spacing is probably going to be necessary for Mobley to develop into the player we want him to be.
In terms of Agbaji, he's probably the best three point shooter of the two players in this draft, and if you compare his shooting numbers with Sexton's college numbers, or even his rookie numbers, it's not close. But again, he'll be gone and we don't have that Houston 2nd to try to jump a team like the Hornets. There's just too many win now teams picking ahead of us for a 4-year player to fall that far IMO.
There's no evidence that 4-year players in the college spotlight are any better at helping you win now than younger guys. Otherwise they would've been drafted earlier. What did Davion Mitchell do? Plus shooter in college his senior year, shot 31% his first year in the NBA. What did Korey Kispert do? Plus shooter all four years in college, shot 35% from 3 in the NBA. Let's win now, guys!
All you really know is that they have less time to hit their ceiling.
There are counter examples as well, but my point is that the Knicks, Hornets, Spurs, and Pelicans, etc. aren't necessarily wanting to wait three years on a player to develop either.