Ferry's biggest job this summer

[kiwibrindle]

Guys, in Game 3 on Saturday night, early in the first quarter, AV picked up two quick fouls and had to sit. Until halftime, this changed the game a bit. The Cavs transition defense was slow and their interior defense was weakened. I have to say that Andy is very important to this team on the defensive side of the ball. Z, Ben and Joe all have high miles on them.

I think we all know that Andy will not accept his player option this off-season and wil become a FA. Here is the interesting facts I see going into the negotiations:

1. The economy is down, not many teams are making money like the Cavs (+ for Ferry)
2 The free agent class is weak at the 4 spot. Only Boozer, Sheed, AV, and Odom are available (+ for AV)
3. Next year is the huge Free Agency Class of 2010 when all the big names are coming out (- for both; Ferry wants to save money for next year, so do all other teams so they have $ to sign the big names)
4 Andy is playing his ace off this playoff run and all the GM's are watching. (+ for Andy)

With these things in mind and the fact that Ferry played hardball last time with AV on a contract, what do you guys think is a far contract for AV? We need him.

- 3 years for 8 to 9 mill a year if we get lucky
- 4 years for 11 to 12 mill a year if we are not
- Or something in-between?

[Lebron45]

6m

[B Mac]

Quite honestly AV deserves quite a bit of money. Hopefully something starting at 8 and escalating to 11 or so by the end of the contract can get worked out. I just dont want things to get ugly this summer. AV wants to be here and the whole team wants him back, its that a-hole FAGen that Im worried about.

[InBoobieWeTrust]

Quite honestly AV deserves quite a bit of money. Hopefully something starting at 8 and escalating to 11 or so by the end of the contract can get worked out. I just dont want things to get ugly this summer. AV wants to be here and the whole team wants him back, its that a-hole FAGen that Im worried about.

That's way overpaying him. No way he even sniffs 8 million a year from any team. He'll be lucky to get offers above his 2009-2010 PO(6.5 Million).

I think he takes the PO and then with our enormous amount of 2010 cap-space(after LeBron signs an extension), we go from there and decide who we want to keep/let go/bring in.

[B Mac]

Maybe overpaying him a bit, however I truly think he's worth it. Remember big men get overpaid all the time, and it only takes one team offering him a ridiculous amount for him to be gone. If he doesnt get 8 million a year than the NBA is in far more trouble financially than I ever thought.

I do agree though that it would probably be in his best interest to take his PO and have another big year next year as a starter for a whole season.

[eyejayem]

The economy and the 2010 rush will dictate what happens next year. You will see some of the premier free agents take 1yr offers so they can get some of that 2010 money. Most of those guys are not going to get more than the MLE offer.

With that said, I think Ferry offers a 4yr 30-35mil offer. I think that is fair for the Cavs but not really for Andy so I would hope that it would be incentive based. So he can make anywhere from 8-10 mil with achievements. The teams with cap are going to go after big names, by free agency or trade. The other option is to save it til 2010.

[DowJones]

3 years/$21 million or 4 years/28 million would be good. We have to keep the 2010 number as low as possible though.

[Gordon Bombay]

resign andy, sign jkidd and draft a physical big man to contend/get in the way/foul howard for years to come

[prekazi]

We should keep Andy, no matter what! That's a no brainer.

[Icness]

If Lebron wants Andy to stay, he should stay no matter the cost. Everything Ferry does should be based on getting Lebron to stay long-term.

If JJ HIckson builds on his rookie promise, the Cavs might not miss AV too much if he were to leave. Big "ifs" though.

[Scrapachenko]

A lot of people are overestimating Andy's market value yet again... You would think they would have learned from last time when people were saying he'd get 5 years 50 million and the Cavs were offering 3 years 20 million. Varejao had absolutely no leverage in a saturated/poor market and ended up eventually getting an offer sheet during the season for 3 years 17.4 million..... This time, while Andy has proved more as a player, he has an even tougher market to deal with.

1) This is the year before the summer of 2010 so many teams will be reluctant to use their cap room or even their MLE holding out for next year.

2) The NBA had to take out a loan to help out 15 of the 30 league's teams financially. Basically, they needed this money just to meet their payroll for the rest of the season. The interesting thing is that most teams are saying that they didn't even feel the effects of the economic downturn this past season and that next season will be when it really shows up in season ticket renewals and attendance numbers since most of those were sold for this past season before the economy really bottomed out. Also, across the business world, advertisement dollars and corporate sponsorships are down big time and expect to see that effect teams.

3) Because of #2 it has been reported that the NBA will be decreasing the salary cap this upcoming season. This isn't a surprise considering the salary cap is set at 51% of Basketball Related Income as per the CBA. So, the NBA doesn't have to decrease the cap, the CBA already does that.

4) If all the bad stuff in #2 happens this coming season and revenue decreases dramatically, expect the salary cap to plummet during the summer of 2010 as that will be the first offseason after a significant decrease in revenue. So, those teams that want to spend in 2010 will have to factor this into how/where they spend money.

5) There are many players available at Andy's position that some teams would possibly desire more.

So, let's look at the market first.... Who has cap room above the MLE this offseason?(Cap projected generously at ~$56 million) Also, on those teams what players would they possibly want to re-sign? Who do these teams already have at the 4/5?

Atlanta=~$15M, Key free agents: Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia, Flip Murray, Marvin Williams(R) Williams' $7 million qualifying offer to even make him a RFA would take up half their cap space. Front court assets: Josh Smith, Al Horford,

Detroit=~18-19M, Key free agents: Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, Walter Hermann the Pistons probably aren't too worried about re-signing them. Front court assets: Jason Maxiell and it should be noted he is a similar type player to AV

Memphis=~22M Key free agents: Hakim Warrick(R) subtract $3 million if Memphis want to make him a RFA, Front court assets: Marc Gasol, Darrel Arthur, Warrick?

Oklahoma City=~13M, Key free agents: none, Front court assets: Nenad Krstic, Nick Collison, Jeff Green

Toronto= ~10M, Key free agents: Anthony Parker, Shawn Marion, Joey Graham, Front court assets: Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani

So, ask yourself who in that group would be willing to use up 11-12M of their cap space on Andy? 8-9M? Now, ask yourself who in that group would be willing to use that cap space on Andy over the following list of players that play or can play the same position as Andy...

Carlos Boozer(PO)
Mehmet Okur(PO)
Paul Millsap
Hedo Turkoglus(PO)
Marvin Williams(R)
David Lee(R)
Shawn Marion
Hakeem Warrick(R)
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
Lamar Odom
Rasheed Wallace
Chris Wilcox
Drew Gooden
Zaza Pachulia
Brandon Bass

Those are 16 players similar in talent or role to what Andy is. So, of the 5 teams that have more than their MLE to spend, who would pay Andy a ton of money when they have those 16 other players to choose from? He only starts on MAYBE two of those teams so how much money would they be willing to spend on a backup big?

Now, that field could shrink to 13 if Boozer, Okur and Turkoglu look at the market and all choose to take their player options. However, that's a realistic possibility for Andy too. Would you really want to give up $6.2M guaranteed to compete in that market? Ultimately, Andy and his agent will have to decide that but I won't feel bad for them if he opts out and find the market chock full of MLE type offers like it was last time.

I'd have no problem throwing Andy and his agent a bone and offering him a deal starting a little above the MLE(6-7M) but why should we bid against ourselves for him in a market that is not friendly to him at all? Would we really be that much worse off if Andy walked and we signed someone like Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox, Glen Davis, Leon Powe or Brandon Bass for an MLE or less deal?

Fortunately for Ferry, he holds nearly all the cards(again). I don't want things to get nasty like they were before but I don't see Ferry bidding against himself. We're trying to compete in this market as well and just because our team isn't struggling as bad financially as some others doesn't mean we can just be frivolous.

Oh, and two last factors to discuss that favor us. Again, with the global economy being down, European clubs are also cutting back spending quite a bit and a lot of the free agents that signed there last year have had trouble actually getting their paychecks. Many teams are cashstrapped over there so Andy doesn't have the out of going back to a lucrative offer in Europe. The other factor is that at least two of those teams with cap space I know for a fact took money from the NBA when they secured that loan. Memphis and OKC are really struggling financially and may not even be looking to use their cap space in a significant way. That just decreases the bidders further...

[eyejayem]

Millsap looks like a Brown guy. If we offer the full MLE w/raises do you think Utah matches? I would still give AV a contract. I think a future with AV/Millsap/JJ would be a good start up front. And then possibly draft Mullins and let him mature until Z retires in like 3 years.

[bcortell]

Millsap looks like a Brown guy. If we offer the full MLE w/raises do you think Utah matches? I would still give AV a contract. I think a future with AV/Millsap/JJ would be a good start up front. And then possibly draft Mullins and let him mature until Z retires in like 3 years.

Teams would offer more than that and yes, Utah would match that and let Boozer go. I don't think Mullens will be there when we draft unless we buy a pick.

[eyejayem]

Well people on the Utah page think they are going to get him with a 4yr/28mil starting at 6mil. I think we can offer that and make sure they give more than that. The other thing is seeing what they end up doing with Boozer and Okur because they are also rumored to be trying to pull the trigger on that AK for Crawford and Maggette with GS. So I would like to see them pay top dollar for him even if we have to make an offer first.

The other thing is I definately think we are buying a pick and it will def be high teens to low 20s. Either pay max cash(3mil) or use Pavs(1 mil buyout- over 3 mil in savings) or combine and a team will save +6mil and I think we would get a mid teen. We may also move up, there are just so many options plus Ferry is a mastermind. And he is doing all this while people are trying not to help him. I have faith this offseason to get another piece or two.

[RevMan26]

Highly doubtful on Millsap. Would love to have the guy, but the chances are VERY slim.

[kiwibrindle]

Scrapachenko

That was an awesome post. Nice explanation.

My only trouble with your logic is that we are talking about millionaire's and their money. It never surprises me how stupid these owners how are shrewd businessmen loss all focus on a team's payroll.

I hope that we can sign AV to an under 7 per year deal.

[Buckeye-NBAFan]

3 years/$21 million or 4 years/28 million would be good. We have to keep the 2010 number as low as possible though.

I don't understand. If Varejao is resigned, the Cavs will not be able to offer more than ~$12M to a 2010 free agent. Maybe less. What's the point? You're not going to be able to afford to sign a max player.

The Cavs can either resign Varejao or sign a 2010 max player, they can't do both. Not while keeping Mo Williams, West and Gibson.

[kenneth9265]

everybody is forgetting about the $13 million coming of the books from Wally, I don't see the Cavs resigning him unless it is for a sign and trade deal

[Pula_86]

I've been preaching this all year, but the Cavs need to blow up their low post players. The Celtics without KG and Powe were tougher in the post than the Cavs. Time to move Varejao and Big Z. Ben Wallace and Joe Smith are good backups. We have gotten nothing from these guys. I still don't think Ferry has any idea how to build a team for the PLAYOFFS.

[RevMan26]

Since the start of the ECF, you can tell how crappy our post game is. Something needs done this summer, either by trade or a signing.